Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.  He will periodically put together his latest bracket projections throughout the season.  Tell him where you agree or disagree @zhayes9 on Twitter.

• Last Four In: Drexel, Illinois, Kansas State, Notre Dame.
• First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Oregon, Minnesota.
• Next Four Out: Northwestern, BYU, Princeton, Oklahoma State.

Click to Enlarge Bracket

Notes

• This was the most clear-cut foursome for the top line that I can recall during any previous preseason bracket and all four deserve to be anointed Final Four teams here in October.
• Maybe a bit of a surprise in both instances, but I’m taking Texas A&M and California to win their respective leagues. Maybe their talent level is not up to par with the likes of Kansas and UCLA, but I like their stability, coaching and players like Khris Middleton and Allen Crabbe are primed to explode.

1. It was SEC Media Day on Thursday and SEC fans were glued to the Internet wondering why Kevin from the NBC show The Office was answering questions about Vanderbilt’s basketball team. Lots of great information as SEC coaches and players spoke about expectations for the year, but the theme that emerged throughout each conversation was that SEC basketball will be the best it has been in a very long time. Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings said, “I would say our league is as healthy and strong as it’s been maybe in the 12 or 13 years that I’ve been in it. I think our league is going to be very good.” The strength of the SEC will be seen at the top of the conference with three top ten ranked teams in the preseason.
2. Stallings also spoke about conference realignment during some of his time with the media, seeming to be more of a traditionalist. He said, “we’re probably going to get into some things that geographically don’t make sense — that’s disappointing and disconcerting. I’m a little old fashioned, I wish people would leave well enough alone.” But Stallings went on to say, “I wish the Big Ten had 10 schools, the Big 12 had 12 schools and the Southeastern Conference was made out of southeastern schools.” But that would be so easy and simple. The powers that be would never go for that!
3. Kentucky coach John Calipari spent time ensuring that opposing coaches know his team is not very good this year. When asked about his preseason ranking, Cal said, “they can rate us high all they want, but there are 40, 50 or 60 teams right now we could not beat. Maybe more. Maybe 100, because we’re just not ready to play a basketball game.” Why would voters rank Kentucky so high then? Maybe it’s a conspiracy! Calipari proclaimed, “they (the voters) did that on purpose to try and put pressure on us. I don’t know; I think they’re out of their minds.” Something tells us Cal will have Kentucky in shape to beat those 100 or so teams after a couple of additional more weeks of practice.
4. Calipari and Stallings spent some time discussing the other coaches’ team. Calipari spoke with an NBA scout who  watched both teams practice this week. Calipari said, “‘Cal, they’re really good.’ That’s what they said: ‘They’re really good.’ Well, what’s making them really good? (The NBA guys said), ‘they all do what they’re supposed to do. Right now, they could play games.’  And they looked at my team (and said), ‘You could not!’ They’re going to be really good.” Stallings responded with his knowledge of Kentucky’s team, saying, “I don’t know anything about his team. They’re all freshmen. Or a lot of them are freshmen. I know Terrence Jones is good. I know all those guys coming back on his team from a year ago are good. The other guys, I don’t want to know about yet.” Calipari claims not to know anything about  his team either. Both coaches know a lot more then they are willing to admit.
5. The SEC Media Day wasn’t all Calipari and Stallings. Florida coach Billy Donovan got in on the action as well indicating his unhappiness with some letdowns in team focus. “We need to clean up some of the slippage we’ve had the last couple of days,” Donovan said. “We start going 5-on-5 and now some of the rebounding, some of the blocking out, some of the rotations kind of gets thrown by the wayside a little bit and they worry about playing and they are not focused on one thing at a time.” Is there an SEC coach who is happy with his team right now? There are certainly none that are willing to admit it.

Last week we examined the sixty or so major programs that Vegas feels is worth offering as action to win the 2011-12 national championship. Unsurprisingly, the top several teams in the preseason Coaches Poll — North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio State, Duke, Syracuse — generally mimic the top several teams in terms of the odds Vegas is offering. The one stunning exception to that trend is Connecticut, whom the pollsters have listed among the few teams most likely to cut the nets down in New Orleans next April, but from whom the oddsmakers still aren’t seeing much value (+2000, or a 4.8% chance, as of now).

This week we’ll take a step further into the odds and consider the probabilities that Vegas has assigned to each power conference team to win its regular season championship. These odds are by no means foolproof. In reviewing last year’s preseason tables of the same six leagues, only Pittsburgh in the Big East and Arizona in the Pac-10 were favorites that came into the money by March. The other four league favorites this time last year? Try Duke in the ACC (UNC), Baylor/Kansas State in the Big 12 (Kansas), Michigan State in the Big Ten (Ohio State), and Kentucky in the SEC (Florida). So while all of these favorites looked reasonable one year ago today, keep in mind that college basketball seasons have a tendency to work themselves out differently despite what the oddsmakers and pundits think.

Ed. note: These odds are published on The Greek as of October 27, 2011. If you’re unfamiliar with how futures odds work, +150 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won.  He would, in other words, win back 1.5 times his original wager.  Those few teams sporting a negative odds notation (e.g., -175) represents a situation where someone would have to wager $175 to win back $100. Since the aggregate of futures odds are designed to add up to a figure much larger than 100% (removing the incentive to wager on every team), we’ve added a far right column normalizing the odds to a true 100% value for each conference.    

ACC

Quick Thoughts on the ACC:

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

In case you missed it, check out games #68-52 and #51-35.

34. February 21: Kentucky at Mississippi State (9:00, ESPN)- Remember the last time Kentucky traveled to The Hump to take on Mississippi State late in the year? The hatred was off the charts before (taunting texts to DeMarcus Cousins from State fans) during (an intense 81-75 overtime win by the #2 Wildcats) and after (fans serenading the officials with a bottle showering) the game. While we can do without the texting and postgame embarrassment, players like Bulldogs point guard Dee Bost still harbor a bitter taste in their mouth from that outcome. If one can pinpoint a weakness with this loaded Kentucky team, it’s the lack of a true post presence. State can trot out the 6’11 Arnett Moultrie and the 6’10 Renardo Sidney. If those two are committed to the post for 40 minutes, this could be one of UK’s SEC stumbling blocks.

Senior Dee Bost is looking for a measure of revenge against Kentucky

33. February 22: Kansas at Texas A&M (9:00, ESPN)- After winning seven consecutive Big 12 titles, it’s fair to label Kansas as the hunted. That makes a very capable Texas A&M team the most threatening hunter. With B12 POY candidate Khris Middleton, Washington transfer Elston Turner and a deep frontcourt, Billy Kennedy is walking into an ideal situation once he gets his health in order. A&M may have a more complete roster, but Kansas was still picked to win the Big 12 in a tie with the Aggies. Until someone knocks the Jayhawks off their pedestal, they deserve to be considered favorites. This game in late February could go a long way towards deciding the regular season crown.

32. February 23: Duke at Florida State (7:00, ESPN)- ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb outlined a compelling case that Florida State is much closer to Duke’s equal than most believe, mostly because of their lockdown defense, absurd athleticism and length at every position. Who wins out when Duke’s star-studded offensive attack – buoyed by the ultra-talented freshman Austin Rivers and the emerging Ryan Kelly – meets the ‘Noles dynamic defenders? Last season, FSU held a Singler and Smith-led Duke team to 61 points in an upset win.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we’re missing or different things you’d like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Proposed Rule Changes Will Open Up Contact Between Recruits and Coaches

College Coaches Would Be Able To Contact And Evaluate Prospects More Under the Proposed Rules Change.

NCAA To Vote On Potential Changes Today. The NCAA Leadership Council will vote on a number of proposals today that could change the recruiting model and deregulate much of the communication between prospects and coaches. One of the biggest proposals is a change in policy that will make texts, calls, e-mails and the like unlimited beginning on June 15 of a recruit’s sophomore year. Currently, texts aren’t allowed, phone calls are limited, and e-mails unlimited. Two other proposed changes that involve communication between players and coaches include allowing contact with juniors at the prospect’s school in months other than April.  During April, college programs could do in-home visits with prospects. Another potential change worth noting is the rule that would let prospects take official visits beginning January 1 of their junior year, including paid travel expenses for the recruit and his two parents or legal guardians. Although the most significant changes would be with respect to the contact period, the evaluation period would be significantly affected as well. Coaches would be allowed to go to sanctioned events in April, although the dates have not been determined.  The thought is that the April evaluation periods will constitute two weekends beginning on a Friday evening and running through Sunday afternoon. Also, the July evaluation period will be narrowed into three four-day periods. The periods will run from Wednesday at 5 PM to Sunday at 5 PM. However, the dates have not yet been specified.

What They’re Saying

• Senior stud Alex Poythress on his Memphis visit: “It was really good; I enjoyed it. We got here and watched practice. I hung out with the players. I got to watch [strength and conditioning coach] Frank [Matrisciano] work out Z-Bo (Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph) and another NBA player. I went to [head] coach [Josh] Pastner‘s house. I enjoyed it overall.” Read the rest of this entry »

The 2011-12 Kentucky Wildcats are the media darlings of the SEC and perhaps the entire country. There are already countless stories about the talents of Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones. There are plenty of anecdotes about the leadership of senior Darius Miller. The media likes to talk about the pressure on Marquis Teague to follow in the footsteps of the lineage of great point guards who have played before him in John Calipari’s system. There is even a documentary on HBO focusing on the life of a Kentucky freshman, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. But you probably won’t find another story about the importance of Eloy Vargas’ impact on the Kentucky Wildcats. Until now.

Eloy Vargas could be called upon to do significantly more for the Wildcats this year

The media overlooks Vargas because it is easy to do. But Kentucky fans don’t forget him. In fact, it is quite the opposite. Throughout most of his playing career, Kentucky fans wish they could forget about Vargas.

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1. Hold the phone — West Virginia may not join the Big 12 after all. According to reports from The New York Times just yesterday, the Mountaineers were all but guaranteed a spot in the Big 12. Sources had said the league wanted WVU regardless of whether Missouri bolted for the SEC, and it seemed like a done deal. So what happened?
2. Louisville happened. It appears that the delay in WVU’s acceptance is all due to a sparked interest in acquiring the Cardinals. One Big 12 school administrator said it’s a direct battle between West Virginia and Louisville, and it may take days to sort out the situation. It doesn’t look like West Virginia is out of the running at all, but it’s interesting to hear that this same official said the league’s schools are also divided on the issue. Texas is rumored to have more interest in WVU, while Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor all want Louisville. From a basketball standpoint, although West Virginia is obviously no slouch, it doesn’t have the sort of history and hoops fan base that UL does. So if your primary interest is hoops, you’ve got to be rooting for the Cardinals to edge West Virginia here.
3. For all you political junkies, one aspect of the delay with West Virginia may have to do with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a Louisville alumnus who’d have an obvious agenda to block a WVU invitation to the Big 12. This is major speculation, of course, and it’s always dangerous to get into the political game. Still, if McConnell really were trying to vouch for his alma mater, that may make for a heck of an E:60 series.
4. The current debate may be between Louisville and West Virginia, but CBS Sports columnist Gary Parrish has a nice breakdown of the Missouri vs. West Virginia comparison. MU’s dominance of the Big Eight in the ’80s and ’90s under coach Norm Stewart may give the impression that it has more history than the Mountaineers, but remember, the Tigers never actually made a Final Four. In fact, Stewart only made two Elite Eights during that time period. And as far as the past decade goes, Parrish shows that WVU beats MU in almost every category. Replacing Missouri with the Mountaineers might not boost the Big 12’s profile in basketball considerably, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt anything.
5. Sticking with off-the-court news — since that’s pretty much all we have right now — Oklahoma has responded to a proposal for a Big 12 television network. It looks like the Sooners aren’t too happy with the news; or, at the very least, they’re just very confused as to how it would work. The Sooners already want to form their own TV network, and it’s a well-known fact that Texas already has the Longhorn Network in place. OU officials say they’re still planning to create their own network despite the Big 12’s proposal. The Big 12 Network sort of exists already, but it’s only an extension of ESPN on local affiliates. Sure, there’s a nice studio show each Saturday, but every game on the Big 12 Network looks like it was filmed in the 1970s. Any Doug Bell fans in the house? Didn’t think so.

1. In last night’s annual Kentucky Blue vs. White game, Sophomore Terrence Jones went off for 52 points setting a record for most points scored in the intra-squad scrimmage. While just an exhibition game, the barrage of points has to be encouraging for Wildcat fans hoping for a new and improved Jones. Freshman Anthony Davis guarded Jones for most of the evening, but it didn’t seem to matter who was on him as he scored from just about everywhere on the court. Jones was 24-31 from the field, finishing with 16 rebounds and six assists. Scrimmage or not, 52 points is impressive. Jones displayed an ability to score in a variety of ways — knocking down threes, taking it strong to the rim and even finishing with his much-discussed right hand. Eight Kentucky players scored in double figures overall as freshman Kyle Wiltjer finished with 27 points on 5-8 shooting from beyond the arc and sophomore, Doron Lamb also scored 31 points.
2. Memphis coach Josh Pastner has a message for all SEC teams — don’t ask to play his Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game. Pastner says it won’t happen on his watch. He singled out Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Florida as teams he does not want to play in order to avoid giving a recruiting advantage for those looking to recruit in Memphis. He says the solution, however, is simple. Invite Memphis to play in the SEC. Pastner says, “That will solve everything. You don’t have to ask me; we would play twice. If you’re coming in here, if you want to play Memphis, go to your presidents and vote Memphis in the SEC. That’s the easiest way to do it. If you’re asking me for a non-conference game, it’s not going to happen.” Pastner is either making a good case for Memphis to be considered for expansion to the SEC or he is setting the Tigers up to be the most hated non-conference rival by the entire league.
3. Several SEC teams will be taking part in secret scrimmages over the next couple of weeks to prepare for opening games. Why the secrecy? Well, nobody seems to know, but you may want to delete your browser history if you click on the link. Better safe than sorry. The SEC teams taking part in the secrecy and their mysterious opponents are: Virginia @ Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech @ South Carolina, LSU @ Rice, Arkansas-Little Rock @ Ole Miss, Georgia @ Clemson, UCF @ Florida and Western Kentucky vs Alabama. Anybody with super-spy abilities, we need video and/or pictures. This message will self-destruct in five seconds.
4. Ole Miss junior Murphy Holloway has been cleared to play immediately for the Rebel Black Bears. Holloway played two seasons for the Rebs before transferring to South Carolina to care for his daughter. After sitting out a year with the Gamecocks, Holloway decided to transfer back to Mississippi. He had to apply for a waiver with the NCAA to avoid having to sit out another year. The waiver was granted and Holloway will be allowed to play this season. He provides an immediate post presence for Ole Miss as he averaged 10.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in his sophomore year. Andy Kennedy’s squad will get an impact player with SEC experience.
5. Tennessee‘s athletic program boasts that their men’s basketball coaching staff has more than 5,000 career college basketball points during their playing careers. In fact, they claim to have more than 1,000 more college points than any other Division I staff. Here’s to hoping that this sets up an SEC coaching staff battle between former players. Rod Strickland vs. Anthony Grant. Orlando Antigua vs. Cuonzo Martin. Billy Donovan vs. John Calipari. John Pelphrey vs. Darrin Horn. Tony Barbee vs. Tracy Webster. Rick Stansbury vs. Kevin Stallings… Okay, maybe not that last one. Having a coaching staff with this much experience can give the Tennessee players a slight boost of confidence, but shouldn’t be much of an advantage otherwise. It is fun to think about a pick-up game of epic proportions at the next SEC media days. Battle royale style.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

On February 2, eventual national champion Connecticut found their missing ingredient.

Before that date, Huskies fans already had a sense their team could finish higher than the coaches selection of tenth in the Big East. Riding the heroics of Kemba Walker, they cruised through Maui, upset Texas on the road and dispatched of Villanova and Tennessee. Their sparkplug, leading scorer, energizer and team leader, Walker truly was Mr. Everything for the Huskies through the first three months of the season, but championships aren’t won by one player surrounded by incapable parts. Every critical eye knew that if Walker scuffled, as he did shooting 18-for-50 during two losses to Pitt and Notre Dame, the Huskies simply had no chance.

The talented junior drew double teams on every possession. He had no choice but to shoot 25 times per game. UConn’s late-game strategies became all too predictable. Someone else had to step up. Jim Calhoun, and Connecticut fans by extension, knew their team couldn’t reach a Final Four until a second option emerged alongside Walker.

By early February, Jeremy Lamb appeared to be that player. A 22-point, 4-rebound, 5-steal performance at Syracuse was his third consecutive outing with 20+ points. Lamb played with an understated confidence, lacked the typical freshman jitters late in games and confidently stroked jumpers. He developed into a consistent threat that defenses had to take seriously. Some inconsistent outings followed, but by March Lamb was the partner-in-crime Calhoun so desperately needed. The rest is history.

For contenders around the country, there is one fatal flaw that has the potential to derail their high hopes for this upcoming season. The flaw may take the entire non-conference slate to identify and most of league action to try to correct, but by March this glaring weakness must be solved in order for these elite teams to reach their lofty goals.

Reggie Bullock: UNC's missing ingredient?/ MSNBC

North Carolina: Consistent three-point shooting threat. Since I’m fairly confident Dexter Strickland can spell Kendall Marshall at the point for 3-4 minutes per half, the only other flaw I can identify for the overwhelming national title favorites is the lack of an outside shooting weapon. Unless someone emerges as a perimeter shooting threat, defenses will pack the post and dare Carolina to make jumpers, a problem further exacerbated by wing Leslie McDonald (38% 3FG) tearing up his knee this summer.  The most obvious resolution is Harrison Barnes, an All-American candidate perfectly capable of extending his range beyond the arc and improving on his 34% mark from deep. Blue-chip signee P.J. Hairston has the reputation of a premiere outside shooter, but relying on freshmen to make shots is often precarious. Most of McDonald’s minutes could go to sophomore Reggie Bullock. The Tar Heel faithful hope Bullock is the answer following a disappointing and injury-plagued rookie campaign.

Kentucky: Post presence. John Calipari’s roster this season is an enviable mix of super-talented freshmen bound for the lottery and seasoned veterans who know their proper role. Senior Darius Miller and sophomores Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb all return, but it’s the departure of center Josh Harrellson that could prove the biggest loss, a notion Kentucky fans could have never envisioned at this time a year ago. Harrellson was more than willing to do the post’s dirty work, snatching key rebounds, blocking shots and mixing it up with the likes of Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller. Although Anthony Davis and Kyle Wiltjer don’t lack in the height department, they’re more perimeter-oriented bigs without the necessary bulk to bang with elite, upperclassmen centers. Unless Eloy Vargas makes a gigantic leap forward, any team with a true post presence could give Kentucky fits.

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Another preseason preview gives us reason to roll out the 2011-12 edition of Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball, our annual compendium of YouTube clips from the previous season 100% guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight. We’ve captured the most compelling moments from the 2010-11 season, many of which will bring back the goosebumps and some of which will leave you shaking your head in frustration. For the complete list of this year’s reasons, click here. Enjoy!

#11 – Where A Young Cat Shall Lead Them Happens

We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11 seasons.