Sports Illustrated‘s Seth Davis is one of the more well-known and well-read national college basketball writers and that is not without justification. One of his most popular annual features is “The Hoop Thoughts Stock Report” where Davis analyzes a sizable group of key programs (this year 42 teams) and gives them each a “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” rating based on his opinion on the program’s true value in relation to its current ranking. It is quite a prolific feature and Davis does an excellent job this year as always, but of course he is not the only man in the blogosphere who knows how to read the college hoops stock market. We fancy ourselves a bit of an intrepid investor and speculator, especially when it comes to the teams we cover from the Big East, so we went ahead and added our own rating to each of the Big East teams in Davis’ piece.

CINCINNATI (13-1, No. 14)

Davis said: SELL We say: HOLD

Like Davis, we understand the concept that marquee wins like the Bearcats triumph over Pittsburgh on the road make it a less appealing stock to buy, but let’s not rush to sell the stock quite yet. The team’s poor free-throw shooting is troubling and will be even more glaring in the NCAA Tournament, but the Panthers were one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and Cincinnati completely outplayed them on both ends of the floor in the second half. Mick Cronin‘s half-court offense isn’t the prettiest to watch but it isn’t all that bad either, especially when you consider they are one of the best rebounding teams in the country across the floor and have a trio of at least competent outside shooters. We aren’t convinced the Bearcats are the second-best team in the conference quite yet, but they certainly look like a team that will play Syracuse and Louisville very tough and they only play each of those teams once the rest of the way… so for now they seem appropriately ranked.

GEORGETOWN (10-1, No. 15)

Davis said: BUY We say: SELL

We Are Not As High On Georgetown As Seth Is (Credit: Matt Sullivan/Reuters)

The Hoyas may have seen a few folks panic and sell their stock after their affront to basketball win over Tennessee, but that game made it clear that John Thompson III‘s young team is going to experience some growing pains as it begins to get comfortable in the offense. Their athleticism and length on defense will ensure that the Hoyas will play a lot of low-scoring grind-it-out games, which may be to their benefit; and Otto Porter is an athletic monster, rapidly improving as a basketball player every week, but in many ways they seem like a slightly less experienced, less deep, less physical version of Cincinnati, right down to the atrocious free-throw shooting. The team’s competitive game against Indiana shows they have the potential to knock off anyone in the conference, but we also get the feeling that they have the potential to be knocked off by a lesser team just as easily. That scares us enough to think this stock has reached its peak and should be sold.

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1. Early in the season, one of the things that the 2012-13 Syracuse Orange seemed to have on the 2011-12 edition was reliable three-point shooting. James Southerland and Trevor Cooney can both act potentially as knock-down shooters for Jim Boeheim. Syracuse has struggled to score recently, and poor outside shooting is one of the main reasons for this lull. The Orange are now shooting 32% from behind the arc this season, and are just 5-of-33 since halftime of the win over Detroit. Boeheim acknowledges this issue, but doesn’t offer up much in the way of a detailed solution after Syracuse’s win over Alcorn State: “Well, it is what it is… Whatever the stats are, they don’t lie. Shooting stats don’t lie. Some people think they do. But they don’t.”
2. With a dwindling lead against archrival Kentucky, Louisville’s Russ Smith started doing what he’s done all season – he made huge plays. Pat Forde describes how strange it is for Cardinals fans to think of Smith as their star, even this far into the season: “The improbable rise of Russ Smith as a s-s-s-star (hard to type with a straight face) has keyed everything Louisville has done last March and so far this season.” Louisville is right about where most people expected they would be, but Smith’s breakout has shifted the focus off of Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng, the players that people expected to lead the Cardinals to a great 2012-13 season.  Siva, Dieng, Chane Behanan, Wayne Blackshear, and a slew of other Cardinals are still very dangerous college players, and when combined with the dynamo Smith, who is averaging a shade under 20 points per game, Louisville is set to make major noise come March.
   
3. GoLocalProv sports writer Scott Cordischi thinks that Providence coach Ed Cooley needs to ‘cool’ it down with regards to calling out his players after games. When asked a question about LaDontae Henton’s stretch of 24 straight points for the Friars in a loss to Brown, Cooley ignored Henton’s offensive outburst and put down his defensive performance, calling it “awful.” Cordischi also notes that Cooley alluded to the team as soft with regards to Bryce Cotton’s injuries, and earlier in the year diminished a 13-assist effort by Kris Dunn in his first collegiate game, calling it “gross.” While many coaches in all sports use the media to motivate their teams, I can see where Cordischi is concerned that Cooley is being too negative with respect to his players. Losses to teams like Brown are frustrating, but those thing will happen with a young, raw team like Providence.
4. The transfer of Malcolm Gilbert from Pitt to Fairfield may be disconcerting to some Panthers fans, but it isn’t coming as a huge surprise to Jamie Dixon. Gilbert has always wanted to play with his brother Marcus, who is a freshman forward for the Stags, and he will have a chance to do that next season by leaving between semesters. Pitt fans may worry about this becoming a trend for Dixon’s program after losing Khem Birch last season, but the guys at Pitt blog Cardiac Hill don’t seem to be too worried, as this transfer seems to be more about an opportunity elsewhere rather than an issue with Dixon or the Panther program.
5. USF star Anthony Collins was taken off the floor on a stretcher after being kneed in the head while diving for a loose ball during a 61-57 win over George Mason. After the game, Stan Heath said that Collins had feeling in all of his extremities, which is obviously a positive sign, but it is always jarring to see a player taken out of a game like that, especially in today’s sports world where concussions and head injuries are so prominent in the public consciousness. The Bulls also lost Victor Rudd to a concussion in the second half, and are very banged up heading into Big East play.

Maybe we should have seen this coming just five days after Syracuse blew a 20-point second-half lead against Detroit and only won by four points, but everyone was too enamored with the story of the 900th win for Jim Boeheim and the meteoric rise to stardom of sophomore point guard Michael Carter-Williams to realize that the Orange were not without their warts. On Saturday afternoon, playing its first worthwhile opponent since its season opening win against San Diego State, some of those warts were exposed as Temple rebounded from an ugly loss to Canisius to upset the No. 3 Orange, 83-79. To be fair to Syracuse, Temple is a veteran and talented basketball team that will absolutely be playing in March if they can survive a brutal conference slate in the Atlantic 10, and senior guard Khalif Wyatt was abnormally brilliant in a winning effort. But the Orange had plenty of chances to take control of this game and just seemingly got outhustled and outplayed at every turn by the gang from Philadelphia.

Syracuse Struggled With the Changing Temple Defense

The Orange came into the game with the second-most efficient defense in the country thanks to imposing length and athleticism at every position, but you would not have known it by watching the Owls get to the free throw line at will and hoist uncontested three-pointers for most of the game. For whatever reason, their lock-down zone defense took the afternoon off. Give the Owls credit for consistently finding the high-post pass to set up a number of options and executing an excellent zone offense. But while Syracuse still created a number of turnovers, they also committed a lot of fouls, were often out of position trying to help defend dribble penetration, and were very nearly outrebounded by a much smaller and less physical team. Most of these issues are easily correctable and some could be attributed to a lack of effort or focus rather than inability, but the Orange have enjoyed a very easy non-conference slate, and if they cannot achieve some consistency on the defensive end, conference opponents will be able to take advantage of those lapses much easier than Eastern Michigan or Monmouth could.

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Eli Linton is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Friday night’s SEC/Big East Challenge game from Fayetteville.

Everyone in Fayetteville, Arkansas, wanted this win tonight. They packed the Bud Walton Arena to the rafters, white out and all. They stood and gave their best “woo! Pig Sooie!” chant, got to the arena just a little bit earlier, and sang the fight song just a little bit louder. Even one of the parking attendants felt he needed to tell me how important this game was to the school. “We’re playing for all the marbles tonight.” He said when I pulled up (Yes, but can I park here?). But tonight, it didn’t matter how bad the Razorback fans wanted it, it wasn’t going to happen. For a team that prides itself in the slogan “fastest 40 minutes in basketball,” these 40 minutes turned out to be the longest of the year for Arkansas.

Syracuse Quieted the Hostile Crowd Assembled at Arkansas Friday Night

Syracuse fell behind briefly at the beginning of the game thanks to the hyped-up crowed and Mike Anderson’s energized Razorback squad, but the game quickly shifted into Orange hands as they slowed the tempo with a zone defense and a killer night from beyond the arc, mostly by the hands of senior James Southerland, who came off the bench to lead the Orange with a career high 35 points. Southerland was an unbelievable 9-13 from three, and he’s been having a career year to help boost the Orange to the no.6 ranking. Coming in to the game, all eyes were on sophomore Michael Carter-Williams, who leads Division I in assists per game and was second in steals. Carter-Williams did not disappoint, almost racking up a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, and three steals.“He almost had a triple-double and I’m yelling at him. So he must be pretty good,” Jim Boeheim commented about Carter-Williams’ performance after the game.

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In our St. John’s preview, we stated that the Johnnies went through about as much adversity as one team could in a single season. If that’s the case, Syracuse was a close second. The Bernie Fine scandal would have been enough to derail most teams, but it seemed to put a chip on the shoulder of the Orange, who spent a portion of the year ranked first in the nation after Kentucky lost at Indiana. The Fab Melo saga was harder to overcome, and came to a head in Syracuse’s Elite Eight loss to Ohio State. Syracuse lost four of its main rotation players from last season – guards Scoop Jardine and Dion Waiters, forward Kris Joseph, and center Fab Melo – but look to plug in a couple of impressive underclassmen and make another run at a final Big East championship and perhaps a Final Four.

Jim Boeheim has been knocking on the door of his fourth Final Four over the last few years.  Will this young Syracuse squad be the one to break through? (AP)

Schedule

Syracuse doesn’t have too many marquee games on the non-conference slate. Their most intriguing match-up is their first game against San Diego State, which will be played on the deck of the USS Midway in San Diego on Sunday afternoon. SU also travels to Arkansas for the SEC-Big East challenge, and will take on one of the teams filling the void they are leaving in the Big East – Temple – at Madison Square Garden. In the Big East schedule, Syracuse shares home-and-homes with Villanova, Providence, Louisville, and Georgetown. The Hoyas host the Orange in their last ever Big East game, which should be one for the ages.

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Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The college basketball season is finally here! This season Set Your DVR (ed. note: sadly, nobody has TiVos anymore) will be a twice-weekly column outlining the must-see games for the upcoming week and weekend.  This column will lay out the key factors in each game to focus on and how those factors could affect the outcome. It’s a military-themed weekend of hoops with three games taking place on aircraft carriers and one game taking place at a military base located across the Atlantic Ocean.  Let’s get to the breakdowns.

Game of the Weekend

#16 San Diego State vs. #5 Syracuse – 4:00 PM EST, 11/11/12 on FSN HD (*****)

Jim Boeheim takes the Orange to the USS Midway to take on San Diego State

• The USS Midway provides the backdrop for an exciting opener between Syracuse and San Diego State. SDSU returns four starters including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year Jamaal Franklin as well as Chase Tapley, James Rahon, and Xavier Thomas. Keep a close eye on the match-up between the Aztec guards and Syracuse point guard Brandon Triche. Triche is taking over for Scoop Jardine and faces a tough test against this crew. Steve Fisher’s squad will have to improve in two areas if they are going to start beating top-tier programs like Syracuse – shooting and offensive rebounding. The Aztecs grabbed only 30.8% of their offensive rebound opportunities last season, so if they are only going to hit 33% of their three-point attempts and 49.8% of their two-point attempts like they did in 2011-12, it’s going to be difficult to beat the best teams in the country. Watch to see if transfers Dwayne Polee II and J.J. O’Brien can help the Aztecs grab more of those missed shots.
• After losing four starters to graduation and the NBA Draft, Syracuse is in a much different place than SDSU. Jim Boeheim’s ability to fill the talent void will be a key factor in determining if this Orange team can beat an experienced Aztec team. The ‘Cuse returns two significant contributors from last year’s team – C.J. Fair and Triche. Both players need to improve their sub-50% eFG in order to prevent the team from taking a step backwards.  The key to the Orange’s success in this game and in the future, however, may be 6’8” senior forward James Southerland. In a somewhat limited role last year, Southerland put up some impressive shooting numbers from inside the arc. Keep a close eye on Southerland’s ability to take advantage of his size inside the three-point line. Syracuse will also be able to throw additional size at the Aztecs with 6’9” sophomore Rakeem Christmas, 6’10” junior Baye Keita, and 6’7” 275 lb. wide-body freshman, DaJuan Coleman. Read the rest of this entry »

1. The hardest part is over for Kevin Ollie, who escaped Gampel Pavilion with a win in his first game –– however unofficial –– as UConn’s head coach. The Huskies rallied to beat American International College 78-63 on Thursday, but the final score doesn’t reflect how uncertain the game was for the first 20 minutes. Ollie’s team missed 10 of its first 11 shot attempts and AIC quickly opened up a 12-2 lead, to the dismay of the 5,349 fans on hand. “When you go 1-for-[11], I’m like, ‘Man, this might be my only time out here,’” Ollie joked afterward to the New Haven Register. UConn never led before halftime, but prodigal freshman guard Omar Calhoun keyed a furious comeback after intermission with his 24 points on 8-14 shooting (including 3-6 from beyond the arc). Ryan Boatright woke up in the second half, finishing with 14 points, and Shabazz Napier added 11 from the two-guard spot. The Huskies have an opportunity to regroup and work out some kinks on Sunday against UMass-Lowell, before an abrupt uptick in competition when they face Michigan State in Germany on November 9.
2. Louisville enjoyed a more emphatic win in its first exhibition of 2012, thumping Pikeville 93-57 in the KFC Yum! Center after hanging the university’s ninth Final Four banner from the rafters. Before the game, former point guard Elisha Justice received a warm welcome from the crowd of 20,277 on hand when Pitino presented him with his Final Four ring. Once things got underway, the ceremonies didn’t seem to pose a distraction for the Cardinals. Sophomores Chane Behanan and Kevin Ware were glued to the bench after being suspended for the game by Rick Pitino, but their absence was undetectable, thanks in part to a breakout debut from freshman forward Montrezl Harrell. Harrell ended with a team-high 19 points and game-high 13 rebounds, and made a variety of unrelentingly energetic plays. His performance was impressive enough that he’ll have an opportunity to compete for the starting power forward position once Behanan returns for the official opener against Manhattan.
3. Syracuse handled its business by an eerily identical 36-point margin, dismantling an overwhelmed Pace squad, 99-63. It was a concerted effort for the Orange, as eight players logged 17 minutes or more and five ended up scoring double figures. Everything went according to plan for Jim Boeheim, who acknowledged after the game, “I’m not experimenting. We’re going to play nine guys.” Pace’s undersized frontcourt (whose tallest player is 6’6″) was no match for the freakish length of Boeheim’s big men, and it manifested in a Space Jam-esque block fest: the Orange logged six blocks in the first 10 minutes, and finished with 14. Freshman big man Dajuan Coleman got the start at center, and began his college career with 11 points and three blocks. But it was steady anchor James Southerland (18 points) and promising returner Michael Carter-Williams (16 points, seven assists) who keyed the offensive effort. The Orange open the season on the road at San Diego State on November 9, where they’ll get a chance to test their nine-man rotation against stiffer competition.
4. Friarblog digs up an awesome New York Times piece by Pete Thamel from 2004, which recounts a late-night gas station rendezvous between Ed Cooley, at the time an assistant coach at Boston College, and former Providence assistant Bob Walsh, as their respective teams prepared for the NCAA tournament. While it “looked like a scene from a bad crime movie,” the coaches were exchanging game film on each other’s first round opponents. The PC staff was acutely aware of the difficulty of finding tape for opponents with few televised games: a recording blunder caused Walsh to accidently tape “Body by Jake” on public access in lieu of the Big West championship game. What makes this kind of story so compelling is that it humanizes the two coaches and gives fans a rare glimpse into the more mundane experiences of their profession. Walsh and Cooley will have an opportunity to catch up on Saturday when Walsh’s Rhode Island College squad visits the Dunk for an exhibition game.
5. Lastly, South Florida blog Voodoo Five put together a very nuanced appraisal of the Bulls’ chances to succeed playing a smaller lineup this year after the departure of Gus Gilchrist and Ron Anderson Jr. Writer Collin Sherwin points out that Stan Heath’s roster lacks the outside shooting to space the floor with three point shooting: USF finished last year ranked 280th in the country in three-point shooting percentage, and facilitator Anthony Collins shot a dreadful 7-24 on the season. It will be interesting to see how Heath tailors his offense to his team’s strengths. We’ll get our first real glimpse on November 10, when USF hosts its I-4 rival, UCF.

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

South Region

Midwest Region

• Fans and media aren’t the only ones caught up in great performances by major talent among the mid-major ranks. It was recently revealed that in 2010, Baylor coach Scott Drew and then-Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl allegedly contacted Ohio‘s D.J. Cooper about transferring, which would constitute NCAA violations if the allegations are true. It will be interesting to see whether the subject is raised during Baylor’s media session this week.
• Yahoo! Sports’ Pat Forde opines that even if North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall returns to the fold for a potential regional final, the odds are stacked heavily against the Heels.
• The Tar Heels’ aren’t the only team from the state recovering from some health concerns. N.C. State will face Kansas Friday, and C.J. Williams and C.J. Leslie are recovering from fatigue. The severity isn’t even comparable to North Carolina’s situation, but a few days of rest will be especially helpful to the Wolfpack.
• Basketball Prospectus’ C.J. Moore breaks down how Kansas topped Purdue on Sunday, from Elijah Johnson‘s fortitude to Bill Self‘s halftime adjustments.
• There are already two coaching vacancies in the Big Ten, and Ohio coach John Groce could fit the bill at either Nebraska or Illinois after the season. Groce’s Big Ten connections, when combined with his team’s head-turning performance this postseason, make him appealing to the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is a tough job, but with a heavy commitment to hoops, Athletic Director Tom Osborne could find a catch.

Three Key Takeaways.

1. Syracuse isn’t a Final Four Team…Even though Syracuse won the second half by 11 points and the game, I was not impressed. They didn’t perform like a#1 seed. They didn’t create separation, or go on any sustainable runs. This was really a 3 point ball game throughout. It is clear that the loss of Fab Melo is bigger than Jim Boeheim has made it out to be. He allowed the rest of their defense to free lance. Now that they aren’t able to do that, they really struggled to contain the 3-point shot and to get out on the fast break. I know Syracuse was credited with 13 fast break points, but that is small potatoes to what they normally do. I don’t see Syracuse beating the likes of a Vanderbilt or Wisconsin, let alone an Ohio State or Florida State. Where was Kris Joseph today? Where was Scoop Jardine for much of the game? Where was Dion Waiters in the second half? There are a lot more questions than answers.
2. Refs can change the game. UNC-Asheville had it down to a 3-point game with Syracuse shooting a 1 and 1 with less than 2 minutes left. Syracuse missed the free throw, but the refs called UNC-Asheville for a lane violation, leading to 2 more free throws. Then with a minute left and UNC-Asheville pressing, they gave the ball back to Syracuse after a loose ball foul call on UNC-Asheville that was clearly after the ball had already gone out of bounds off of Syracuse. Last but not least, the refs almost let Syracuse shoot 3 free throws for a 2 point shot at the end, but fortunately someone caught it. There are many plays throughout the game, but this missed calls came at a pivotal time for UNC-Asheville, and contributed to their comeback falling short.
3. Will there be Christmas in March? Syracuse clearly needs to filling a gaping hole that Melo left. That job fell to Rakeem Christmas today, and he didn’t step up in my opinion. Sure, he ended up with a couple blocks, 7 boards, and about a half dozen points, but he didn’t provide the presence they need. He was soft and got pushed off the boards and out of the paint, especially in the first half when UNC-Asheville went on several runs. If the job isn’t Christmas’ to fill, they are going to have to find someone else, because he isn’t going to provide the type of spark they need to make a deep run in the tourney.

Star of the Game. James Southerland, Syracuse. I am not sure there was a single star in this game, but I think the person who most helped Syracuse to win the game was Southerland. He hit all of his 3’s from the right side of the court in the 2nd half, and provided the spark they needed to get back in the game, and then take the lead. He was also a very efficient 6-8 from the field and 3-5 from long range. He also had 8 boards.

Sights and Sounds. I haven’t been to a game where 90% of the fans are cheering against the favorite, but that’s exactly what happened today. It was amazing to see that the underdog was treated like the home team, and I look forward to seeing that type of treatment when there isn’t a clear favorite or home team in attendance. The crowd was the difference maker, and definitely helped boosted the confidence of UNC-Asheville.

What’s Next? #1 Syracuse advances to take on #8 Kansas State on Saturday. I wasn’t impressed with Syracuse tonight, but I was also not impressed with Kansas State. I think Kansas State should be a good test for Syracuse, but at the end of the day, I think Syracuse has too much firepower not to advance against the Wildcats. Kansas State is too one dimensional, and had a hard time hitting 3’s, so it doesn’t bode well against Syracuse. Syracuse needs to find an identity quick though if they want to last long this year.

The bad breaks just keep coming for Syracuse and its basketball program. After one of the team’s best seasons in recent history and right as they prepared for the NCAA Tournament as a #1 seed, they learned that starting center and key cog Fab Melo will miss the entire tournament due to an eligibility issue. Melo missed three games earlier this season because of academics, but it is unclear whether this eligibility issue is about academics or something else as the school would not provide any additional details. [Update: It’s apparently about academics and he is also apparently declaring for the NBA Draft]

It doesn’t take a basketball junkie to know that Melo’s absence is a potentially lethal blow to the Orange’s national title hopes. He was the best rebounder on a team that struggles to rebound the basketball and he was also the conference’s defensive player of the year this season. He is one of the main reasons why Syracuse limited opponents to an effective field-goal rate just 44 percent this season and the team’s staunch 2-3 zone relied on Melo to protect the rim — something he did very well during the regular season.

Fab Melo's Absence Could Crush Syracuse's National Title Aspirations

The onus now falls on freshman Rakeem Christmas and sophomore Baye Keita to pick up the slack and neither proved consistently capable of that during the regular season. The good news is that Keita and Christmas, while young, are athletic and energetic defenders who can block shots and rebound the basketball unless they run up against more experienced and physical post players. But the understated effect this blow might have on the Orange will be on the offensive end.

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