Paul Jordan of Wildcat Blue Blog is the RTC correspondent for the Southeastern Conference.

SEC Standings

EAST

1. Kentucky 27-2 (12-2)
2. Vanderbilt 22-6 (11-3)
3. Tennessee 21-7 (9-5)
4. Florida 20-9 (9-5)
5. South Carolina 14-14 (5-9)
6. Georgia 13-14 (5-9)

WEST

1. Mississippi State 21-8 (9-5)
2. Mississippi 19-9 (7-7)
3. Arkansas 14-15 (7-7)
4. Auburn 14-15 (5-9)
5. Alabama 14-14 (4-10)
6. LSU 10-18 (1-13)

It was an interesting week in the SEC as the “titans” spent most of the week knocking each other off. Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee all went through 1-1 weeks this week and Vanderbilt went a perfect 2-0 as the SEC East race got a bit tighter while Mississippi State emerged in the SEC West. Overall. the SEC is a bit improved over last year with four teams certain to make the NCAAs, and as many as six or seven possible when the dust clears. Despite their loss to Tennessee, Kentucky is still on pace to wrap up their 44th regular season SEC title. They just need a win or a Vanderbilt loss to clinch a tie and combination of two of those things to win the title outright. In the West, Mississippi State has clinched at least a tie.

Kentucky fell just one spot with the loss and now is ranked third in both polls. The pollsters seemed a bit confused about what to do with Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The AP Top 25 rewarded the Commodores’ 2-0 week with a jump up to 13th while the ESPN/USA Today poll has them at 19th. Tennessee moved up in both polls as the voters weighed the win over Kentucky more than the blowout loss to Florida earlier in the week. The Vols sit at #13 in the ESPN/USA today poll and #16 in the AP Top 25. No other SEC teams are ranked, although Mississippi State is the equivalent of #35 in the AP Top 25 poll yet they got no votes in the ESPN/USA Today poll. In the player recognition polls of the week, Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins was the freshman of the week and Mississippi State’s Jarvis Varnado was the SEC player of the week. Next week, we will look at my all SEC teams for the regular season.

Tournament wise, I would say that as of right now, four teams are solidly in… at this moment. Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are a lock for the tournament. Kentucky should be a #1 seed while I would say that both Tennessee and Vanderbilt have a very good shot at being top four seeds. Both teams could move up to a three seed or even possibly a two seed by winning the SEC Tournament (although both teams would need a lot of help nationally to move up to a two.) Let’s say a three seed and a four seed await these teams. The fourth team I have in right now (if the season was over) is Mississippi State, although I would classify them as still a bubble team with work to do. The Bulldogs must travel to Auburn and then host Tennessee. The Bulldogs are low on quality wins, so a win over the Vols would lock up their status and maybe earn them a #6-#8 seed. A loss to Tennessee puts the Bulldogs solidly on the bubble again with 22 wins and I would say at least one to two wins in the SEC tourney would be needed. If they lose to Tennessee and win just one tournament game, they would have 23 wins… that may be enough but it will still be tenuous.

Another confusing team is Florida. Earlier in the week, they had a very impressive win over Tennessee and I had the Gators in the NCAAs. Then on Saturday, UF lost to Georgia and put themselves back on the bubble. The Gators are back in the position of having to beat either Vanderbilt at home or win at Kentucky. If the Gators lose both, they would sit at 20-11 and on a three-game losing streak to finish the season. They do have two big wins over Tennessee and Michigan State but I don’t see 20 wins being good enough. A win over the Commodores or Wildcats would probably punch their ticket. If not, the Gators may have to win two or three games in the SEC Tournament to feel safe. The Mississippi Rebels would be on the outside looking in right now. Wins this week over LSU and Arkansas would give them a 21-9 record and a four-game winning streak to finish the season. On the surface that may be enough to nudge out the Gators for the fifth spot, if the Gators do not win this week. The Rebels do have just one quality win (over Kansas State) and would be 5-5 in their last 10 games however. You could argue that even if Florida loses their next two games, they are a better tournament team as UF beat Ole Miss head to head and has two quality wins. I would say the Rebels need two SEC wins to seal the deal with 23 wins. I would say that both Florida and Ole Miss would have to win their way into the tournament, but if they play well, they will not be shut out.

So the SEC could have six NCAA teams in… or three NCAA and three NIT teams. There may not be any more teams for the NIT this year. South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama have had some good SEC wins on the year but are hovering at the .500 mark overall. I would think that each team would need to at least be over .500 to make the NIT. Georgia is a team to watch as a darkhorse in the SEC Tournament because despite their poor record, they have more quality wins (Illinois, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida) than all of the bubble teams.

Here is a look at this week’s top games to watch for as the SEC closes out it’s action:

• 3/2- Vanderbilt @ Florida – 7 PM – ESPN
• 3/3 – Arkansas @ Tennessee – 7 PM – ESPN 360
• 3/3 – Kentucky @ Georgia – 8 PM – SEC Network
• 3/3 – Mississippi State @ Auburn – 8 PM – ESPN 360
• 3/4 – LSU @ Mississippi – 9 PM – ESPN
• 3/6 – South Carolina @ Vanderbilt – 2PM – ESPN2
• 3/6 – Mississippi @ Arkansas – 4 PM – ESPN 360
• 3/6 – Tennessee @ Mississippi State- 6PM – ESPN
• 3/7 – Florida @ Kentucky – 12PM – CBS

Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day, the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament, while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding, there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday, and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.

Tenth
Georgia Tech at Clemson on Raycom/ESPN Full Court at 8 PM on Tuesday – This game is important not just for NCAA seeding, but also for ACC seeding. Both teams are currently occupying a position in the ACC standings where they could easily rank anywhere from 3rd in the conference all the way down to 7th in the conference. That conference rank could be the difference between having to play Duke or having to play UNC (ok, I’ll admit that was a cheap shot Tar Heel fans) early in the ACC Tournament. As you would expect from fairly similar teams, they both sit in the middle of most brackets. I could see either one going as high as a 6-seed or as low as a 9-seed when Selection Sunday roles around and these head-to-head match-ups will play a huge role in where they fit in the bracket.

Ninth
Memphis at UAB on Comcast Sports South at 9 PM on Wednesday – It still seems incredible after all these years of John Calipari‘s teams dominating Conference USA that the Tigers are no longer dominating CUSA any more. In fact, these two Conference USA teams will be playing for more than the #2 seed in the CUSA Tournament (UTEP is in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed) when they meet in Birmingham. They might be playing for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament as well. Most bracketologists have the Blazers as one of their last teams in while the Tigers are one of the last teams out. A win by Josh Pastner‘s squad could cause the teams to flip positions into and out of the bracket overnight. Normally I might make this game even higher, but I’m not buying the UTEP Kool-Aid and the loser could still get in with either a win in the conference tournament over the other or could potentially win the CUSA Tournament outright.

Eighth
Oklahoma State at #24 Texas A&M on ESPN at 9 PM on Wednesday – Both teams are coming off huge home wins. Now the question is whether they can sustain the momentum. The Cowboys will need to show they can win away from the land of perpetual T. Boone Pickens money and the Aggies will need to show they can win against a team that isn’t collapsing. Both teams are currently in a group of five Big 12 teams with in-conference records of either 8-6 or 9-5. A win here or there could mean the difference between finishing 3rd in the conference or finishing 7th in the conference and even though OSU has a win over KU everybody in the Big 12 (and the country) wants to avoid the Jayhawks for as long as possible in any tournament (Big 12 or NCAA). Right now both teams are in the 6-8 seed range, but a hot or cold streak to finish the season could mean anywhere from a 5-seed to a 10-seed for these two teams.

Seventh
#19 Vanderbilt at Florida on ESPN at 7 PM on Tuesday – The Gators are coming off a tough two-point loss at Georgia, but their prior three-game winning streak has assured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Now they are entering a two-game stretch (home versus Vanderbilt then at Kentucky) where it might appear that they can only help their NCAA seed and a win could boost them 2-3 spots, but if they lose these two and their opener in the SEC Tournament a four-game losing streak might be enough to take them to the NIT for the third straight year. As for the Commodores, they have a treacherous two-game finish in Gainesville then at home against Devan Downey and company. They are currently chasing a #3 or #4 seed, but a loss in either of those games could cripple their chances at getting a top-4 seed (barring an upset victory over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). Technically they still have a chance of winning the SEC regular season title (if they win out and the Wildcats finish on a 3-game losing streak), but we don’t see that happening.

Can Chandler Parsons and his Gators shoot their way into the field?

Sixth
#9 Villanova at Cincinnati on ESPN2 at 7 PM on Tuesday – The question here is how these teams respond to difficult loses on Saturday. Villanova’s loss was more visible and watched (by just about everyone in upstate New York–aka everything outside of NYC), but the Bearcats suffered a difficult loss in Morgantown where they blew a 2nd half lead before falling just short. The Wildcats loss likely will keep them out of a #1 seed, but the Bearcats loss might be enough to keep them out the NCAA Tournament altogether. A win here for Villanova would be big to ensure that they stay on the 2-seed line while Cincinnati needs a win here and probably at Georgetown along with 1 or 2 wins in the Big East Tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

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Now it’s getting serious.  College basketball teams across the country now fall into one of four camps: bored, because they know their NCAA bid is secure; resigned, because they’ve known for a long time that they’re out; relieved, because they think they’ve played their way in; and downright antsy, because they’ve still got work to do.  That last group are the most interesting ones at this time of year, and there are plenty of them out there.  We’ll be keeping an eye on all of those games and, of course, commenting on any game we can find on the tube in today’s three-man weave version of BGTD.  We hope to hear from you while we’re at it.  Here are the games on which we’ll definitely be keeping tabs, though we’ll probably find more throughout the day:

• 12 PM – Notre Dame @ #13 Georgetown on CBS (regional) – RTC Live
• 12 PM – #2 Kentucky @ #17 Tennessee on CBS (regional)
• 12 PM – Michigan @ #9 Ohio State on ESPN
• 12 PM – Northeastern @ George Mason on ESPN2
• 2 PM – North Carolina @ Wake Forest on CBS
• 2 PM – #21 Texas @ #23 Texas A&M on ESPN
• 2 PM – Mississippi @ Arkansas on ESPN2
• 4 PM – #1 Kansas @ Oklahoma State on CBS
• 4 PM – Florida @ Georgia on SEC Network
• 6 PM – Mississippi State @ South Carolina on ESPN
• 8 PM – Illinois State @ #22 Northern Iowa on ESPN2
• 8 PM – Missouri @ #6 Kansas State on ESPN-U
• 8 PM – Southern Miss @ Memphis on CBS College Sports
• 9 PM – #8 Villanova @ #4 Syracuse on ESPN

We will start with our coverage at 11 AM. Feel free to drop by throughout the day and ask questions/comment on anything that is happening in the world of college basketball.

11:05: Well it certainly is very orange in Syracuse. And Bob Knight with the first shot of the day mocking fans who would pay $750 to watch this game. Nice. Evan Turner just signed a “Evan Turner” home-made trophy being held by some kid wearing a home-made “Villain” t-shirt.

11:06: Knight just admitted he is rooting for Steve Alford and New Mexico tonight. Not a surprise, but still amusing. I’m sure the BYU players will have something to say to the media after the game.

11:10: We would love to interview the fan who sits in that seat or the row of seats that Erin Andrews just featured. The almost looks like Final Four type seating or what we saw earlier this year for the game at the new Cowboys stadium.

11:17: Hubert Davis calling out the Mountain West and BYU. Can we get Shawn Bradley on the phone to mock UNC? Jay Bilas comes to BYU’s defense by comparing them to and crushing Virginia Tech. He’s not going to be a popular guy the next time he visits Blacksburg. Digger makes the best point of the entire discussion by saying that the reason we are talking up the mid-majors is because the PAC-10 is awful this year.

11:20: “This is the weakest at-large field ever. The weakest at-large field ever.” – Jay Bilas. He should be fun on Selection Sunday.

11:21: Does Digger have a yellow highlighter today? Is this the first time he has went with the traditional yellow for his highlighter?

11:35: Nice feature about Hank Gathers. I still remember hearing about it the day it happened on SportsCenter the night it happened. Still jarring to see the video. Nice shout-out to RTC fan Jeff Fryer. It’s too bad they ran into the buzzsaw that was the 1990 UNLV team. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing that “30 for 30” documentary.

11:45: I love seeing the replay of the Scottie Reynolds shot. Not because I root for Villanova, but because it is the craziest basketball moment I have ever seen in person. Just the ecstasy of the Villanova fans that followed their utter despair after they had almost blown the game moments before.

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As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.

(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).

#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue

#2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia

#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin

#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor

#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee

#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa

#8 Seeds: Missouri, UNLV, Florida State, Illinois

#9 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, UTEP

#10 Seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Marquette, California

#11 Seeds: Louisville, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, UAB

#12 Seeds: Connecticut, Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Siena

#13 Seeds: Cornell, Charlotte, Kent State, Oakland

#14 Seeds: Murray State, Wofford, Weber State, Sam Houston State

#15 Seeds: Morgan State, Coastal Carolina, North Texas, UC-Santa Barbara

#16 Seeds: Jacksonville, Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Jackson State

Last Four In: Charlotte, Saint Mary’s, Connecticut, UAB

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Dayton, San Diego State, Arizona State

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Notre Dame

Bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big 10 (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Conference USA (2).

Analysis after the break:

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RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

With just over two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the bubble is starting to shrink as more teams move into lock status:

Richmond– The current A-10 co-leader has the most difficult stretch to finish the season with trips to Xavier and Charlotte and a home date with Dayton. Even losing all three wouldn’t squash the Spiders.

Xavier– The Musketeers really only needed to split their road trip at Charlotte and St. Louis. Instead, they went out and won both. With a high RPI and three winnable games left, Xavier is back in the field yet again.

Maryland– The Terrapins have now won four in a row and collected huge home wins over Georgia Tech in miracle fashion and Clemson in comeback fashion. Gary Williams has his squad 10-3 in the ACC.

Missouri– Mike Anderson’s team only needs to win one of their next four games (the four includes their first round matchup in the Big 12 Tournament). The home win over Texas pretty much sealed the deal.

Baylor– The Bears clinched a berth with their squeaker over Texas A&M last night in Waco. Their non-conference wins over Xavier (neutral) and at Arizona State seems a bit stronger, as well.

Texas– Winning at Texas Tech and taking care of Oklahoma State in Austin were the clinchers. Texas has four wins vs. the RPI top-50, but could still finish at a disappointing 9-7 in the Big 12.

Texas A&M– The win at Iowa State last Saturday clinched their bid. The Aggies have tremendous computer numbers, won at Missouri and beat Baylor at home.

UNLV– A lock for two reasons: 1) wins over BYU, at New Mexico, at Arizona and vs. Louisville and 2) their final two games against Wyoming and Air Force, teams that have combined for three MWC wins this season.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Rhode Island (28 RPI, 60 SOS)- The Rams hit a rough patch in mid-February losing three in a row in A-10 play, but they righted the ship this past Saturday against hapless Fordham and now head into their last three very winnable games. URI must travel to St. Bonaventure and Massachusetts with a huge bubble game against Charlotte at home sandwiched in between. If the Rams win out, they’ll finish 23-6 (11-5) in a strong Atlantic 10 and would, in all likelihood, received a bid as long as they’re not upset in the first round of the conference tournament. What’s concerning is that the Rams will head into that tournament with just two wins vs. the RPI top 50- Oklahoma State and Dayton. Current seed range: 11-12.

Dayton (43 RPI, 37 RPI)– Speaking of Dayton, unless the Flyers can stun Richmond on the road, they’ll be sitting squarely on the bubble heading into the A-10 tournament. Dayton probably passes the eye test and they do have out-of-conference wins over Georgia Tech on a neutral floor and Old Dominion. They’ve also lost a handful of close conference road games and beat fellow bubble squad Charlotte by 28 in their lone meeting. Still, the Flyers are just 3-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 vs. the RPI top 100, and, factoring in a loss at Richmond on March 4, they’d finish an uninspiring 9-7 in A-10 play. It’ll come down to the A-10 tournament for the preseason favorites. Current seed range: Last Four Out.

Charlotte (55 RPI, 106 SOS)– The 49ers still have a shot to make the NCAA’s, but blew a golden opportunity at home against Xavier last Saturday to pick up an RPI top-25 win and lost by 14. Now they have to win two of their last three at George Washington, at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. Charlotte did pick up a big non-conference win at Louisville, but will the committee factor in the Cardinals depleted state at the time? What will help them more are A-10 wins over Temple and at Richmond. A 106 SOS and just four wins vs. the RPI top-100 doesn’t help the cause. They need to split those last two games to have a real shot. Current seed range: Last four out.

Bobby Lutz's 49ers are currently on the outside looking in

ACC

Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#13 Georgetown @ Louisville – 7 pm on ESPN2 (***)

For how large the gap is between their rankings, Georgetown is not that much better of a team than Louisville.  Georgetown is still aiming for a #3 seed in the Tournament, while Louisville still has some work to do.  However, Louisville is a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings, and with a victory tonight they will have more wins on the year than Georgetown.  UL has all the momentum, as they are coming off of three straight conference wins and the Hoyas have not won since February 9.  Louisville’s main concern will be guarding the Hoyas, as the Cardinals’ #80-ranked defense will be going up against a Georgetown team that shoots 50% from the floor as a team.  They Hoyas are trying to rebound from a rough performance against Syracuse in which they missed 40 shots and Julian Vaughn was held scoreless.  The Cardinals have a solid offense as well, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency, but they are going to need more help from players other than Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa.  Jerry Smith is their third leading scorer, but he hasn’t scored more than seven points in a game since February 6.  The Hoyas have lost two straight games, but their second half performance against Syracuse may indicate that they have come out of their slump, and they should get back on track tonight.

#6 Kansas State @ Texas Tech – 8 pm on ESPN360 (**)

The Wildcats have quietly been working towards a potential #2 seed the last few weeks, winning their last five games against the bottom of the Big 12.  Texas Tech, who has lost three straight games to most likely kill their at-large tournament hopes, is now among the worst teams in the conference.  Had the Red Raiders pulled out their recent games against Oklahoma State and Texas, they would have looked like a much more formidable opponent at 18-8, so this game won’t likely be a blowout.  Nevertheless, the Red Raiders are going to have to step up their defense if they want to keep this game close.  Their defense, which ranks #97 in efficiency, has allowed their last four opponents to shoot over 40% from the field, including a road game against Baylor in which they allowed the Bears to make 55% of their shots.  Kansas State, led by Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, features four legitimate scorers and ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, so they will likely capitalize on any defensive miscues that Texas Tech makes.  Although the Red Raiders don’t have the best offense by any stretch, they shoot almost 39% from the three-point line, and can at least keep the game within reach if they hit their shots.  Against Baylor, they made 8 of their 13 three-pointers, so this game may largely hinge on their three-point shooting.  KSU has a solid defense, and given that Texas Tech dropped their last two home games, I don’t think the home crowd will play much of a factor tonight.

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Paul Jordan of Wildcat Blue Blog is the RTC correspondent for the Southeastern Conference.

SEC Standings

EAST

1. Kentucky 26-1 (11-1)
2. Vanderbilt 20-6 (9-3)
3. Tennessee 20-6 (8-4)
4. Florida 19-8 (8-4)
5. South Carolina 14-12 (5-7)
6. Georgia 12-13 (4-8)

WEST

1. Mississippi State 19-8 (7-5)
2. Arkansas 14-13 (7-5)
3. Mississippi 17-9 (5-7)
4. Alabama 14-12 (4-8)
5. Auburn 13-14 (4-8)
6. LSU 9-17 (0-12)

Storylines

As we enter the last two weeks of the SEC season, Kentucky is closing in on the regular season title as they withstood two big road challenges at Mississippi State and Vanderbilt this week. They currently lead the SEC East by two games with four games to go, but they do hold the tiebreaker over second place Vandy whom they swept. Keep in mind that in the SEC Tournament the top two teams in each division get a first round bye so there is still a lot at stake. Vanderbilt currently has a pretty good grasp on that bye position as they are 3-0 against trailing Tennessee and Florida. The Vols and Gators both had 2-0 weeks to stay in competition for the bye game. South Carolina and Georgia are strictly spoilers at this point, but it would appear that Georgia could get a great moral victory by not finishing last in the East.

The West appears to be the division no one wants to win as the Bulldogs and Arkansas went 1-1 on the week. Getting the first round bye would be a great coup for Arkansas. Mississippi had a horrible week as they appear to have fallen out of the race altogether. Alabama started off the season with promise, but they have fallen on hard times. They, along with Auburn, are just playing out the string while LSU is trying desperately to avoid the winless conference season.

The SEC’s presence in the polls is still dominated by the East division. Kentucky remains at #2 in both polls. Vanderbilt continues to move up, despite losing games. They are now #16 in the AP Top 25 and the #20 in the ESPN/USA Today edition. The Volunteers are still registering in both polls at #19 in the AP Top 25 and #17 in the ESPN version. Mississippi State was ranked the equivalent of 34th in the AP Poll. For the weekly awards, Kentucky’s DeMarcus Cousins took home the SEC Freshman of the Week award and Tennessee’s Wayne Chism won the Player of the Week.

As of right now, the SEC has three teams penciled into the NCAA Tournament: Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Kentucky is very close to having a number one seed locked up, and you would figure that wins this week over South Carolina and Tennessee will seal the deal. Vanderbilt is in a good position as well and they have two winnable games this week versus Georgia and Arkansas. If Vandy can go 2-0 this week, they are knocking on the door of a number four seed in one of the four regions. Of all the SEC teams currently in, Tennessee is the most tenuous. You would think that they are a lock right now, but this week’s schedule features a trip to Gainesville and then a date with the #2 Wildcats. The Florida game has become a must win for both teams, as UT would have to beat Kentucky to avoid a 0-2 week. Tennessee would still be a NCAA lock losing both games. but their seeding could fall to the #7-#8 range. If Tennessee can pull off two wins, they can compete for a top 4 seed as well.

As of right now, Mississippi State and Florida sit firmly on the bubble. I think that Mississippi State is in with another two wins and they could lock up their bid with wins over Alabama and South Carolina. The Bulldogs also need these wins to try to win the SEC West. Florida was a very impressive team this week and I would say they are on the “in” portion of the bubble right now thanks to their tough win over Mississippi. However, Florida needs two more wins and a win over Tennessee could almost seal the bid for them. As I see it, Florida has to beat Georgia this week and win one of the following three: Tennessee, Vandy, and Kentucky. Florida has Tennessee right where they want them … in the O’Dome and they need to take advantage of it.

Ole Miss is firmly on the bad side of the bubble but if they can go 4-0 and make the semis of the SEC Tournament, they may go dancing. Mississippi has a favorable schedule this week with Auburn and Alabama on the schedule. If Mississippi can not close strongly, they are doomed for the NIT. I do think that Arkansas, South Carolina and Alabama have a good shot at the NIT, although they all need about three wins each (includes the SEC Tourney) to secure it. Arkansas is also in the position of fighting for the SEC West Title and faces LSU and Vanderbilt this week.

CAN’T MISS GAMES

• 2/23 – Tennessee @ Florida – 9PM – ESPN
• 2/24 – Arkansas @ LSU – 8 PM – ESPN 360
• 2/24 – Alabama @ Mississippi State – 9 PM – ESPN 360
• 2/25 – Georgia @ Vanderbilt – 7 PM – ESPNU
• 2/25 – South Carolina @ Kentucky – 9 PM ESPN
• 2/27 – Kentucky @ Tennessee – 12 PM – CBS
• 2/27 – Vanderbilt @ Arkansas – 1:30 – ESPN 360
• 2/27 – Florida @ Georgia 4:00PM – ESPN 360
• 2/27 – Mississippi State @ South Carolina – 6PM – ESPN

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Last Four In: Dayton, Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, UAB

Last Four Out: Charlotte, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, San Diego State

Next Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Wichita State, South Florida

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Campbell, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Purdue, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Bucknell, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, North Texas, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2).

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Hello everybody, welcome back to another thrilling edition of Boom Goes the Dynamite.  If you haven’t noticed, we’re at the point of the season where every game has a little more intensity, a little more pressure, a little more edginess, as each team tries to attract the eye of the fickle Selection Committee.  Whether in an attempt to lock up a high seed or simply to make the darn thing, the next three weeks will present ample opportunities for every team to make its case, for better or worse.  As always, we’ll be right there with you throughout the day, checking in on the big games and others of varying importance.  While today isn’t a blockbuster day in terms of key games, there are always going to be a good number at this time of year.  Below are the ones we’ll be keeping an eye on…

11 AM: Siena @ #13 Butler on ESPN2 – RTC Live
12 PM: Florida @ Ole Miss on CBS
12 PM: Seton Hall @ #8 West Virginia on ESPN
12 PM: Morgan State @ Murray State on ESPNU
1 PM: Louisiana Tech @ Northeastern on ESPN2
1:30 PM: #22 Baylor @ Oklahoma State on ESPN360
2 PM: #17 Texas @ Texas Tech on ESPN
2 PM: Georgia Tech @ Maryland on ESPN360 – RTC Live
2 PM: Xavier @ Charlotte on CSS
4 PM: Illinois @ #4 Purdue on ESPN
4 PM: UTEP @ Tulsa on CBS CS – RTC Live
4 PM: Colorado @ #1 Kansas on ESPN360
6 PM: #2 Kentucky @ #19 Vanderbilt on ESPN
6 PM: #7 Kansas State @ Oklahoma on ESPNU
8 PM: Charleston @ George Mason on ESPN2
9 PM: UCLA @ Washington on ESPN
12 AM: Wichita State @ Utah State on ESPN2 – RTC Live

11:02: And we’re live with another BGTD. Interesting decision by ESPN to keep GameDay at 11 AM with the Siena-Butler game on ESPN2. We already have someone doing a RTC Live for the Siena-Butler game so we’ll focus more on GameDay than we otherwise would. Definitely check out our RTC Live of the game though.

11:07: The ESPN analysts are really going out on a limb saying the Big East Tournament will be the best of the conference tournament. Digger breaks with the group and goes with the Big Ten. Surprisingly Bobby Knight calls out the Big Ten saying the Big East would beat them head-to-head.

11:09: In another surprise, Jay Bilas goes against Coach K by saying that the conference tournaments effectively act as a huge NCAA Tournament and if you win you are into the real NCAA Tournament. Digger agrees with him while Hubert Davis attempts to make a ridiculous argument against the automatic bid saying it penalizes teams like Siena that dominate their conferences, but might choke in the conference tournament. Personally I think if you’re that good you can earn an at-large bid with your play throughout the season. Knight holds the coaching fraternity party line saying that he wants to expand the tournament. Translation: Nobody gets fired ever.

11:15: Just flipped over to ESPN2 where the announcers were comparing Gordon Hayward to Mike Dunleavy Jr. I’m not sure if they are talking about their games or the way they look. Where is the college basketball Spike Lee who will call out these announcers for comparing the two only because they are white guys who look fairly similar? For the record their games are pretty similar. Feel free to call me out in the comment section. . .

11:20: Knight wants “The Committee” to get an ex-coach on there (like him?) and the team’s last 18 games. I have no idea how he decided on 18. Why not 20? The other talking heads rip the RPI. Davis wants to take the strength of schedule component out of the RPI and wants to use an “eye test” to replace it. I’d like to see Professor Davis come up with a quantitative way to come up with the “eye test” score.

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Paul Jordan of Wildcat Blue Blog is the RTC correspondent for the Southeastern Conference.

EAST

1. Kentucky 24-1 (9-1)
2. Vanderbilt 19-5 (8-2)
3. Tennessee 18-6 (6-4)
4. Florida 17-8 (6-4)
5. South Carolina 14-10 (5-5)
6. Georgia 11-12 (3-7)

WEST

1. Mississippi State 18-7 (6-4)
2. Arkansas 13-12 (6-4)
3. Mississippi 17-7 (5-5)
4. Alabama 14-11 (4-7)
5. Auburn 12-13 (3-7)
6. LSU 9-16 (0-11)

Storylines

Stretch Run.  The SEC is headed down the stretch run with three weeks remaining and as of right now, about half the league is still in the running for a division title and even more are in the running for a postseason tournament bid. The SEC East is the “glory division” right now with three teams ranked in the top 25. Kentucky has moved to the #2 position in both polls while Vanderbilt is #17 in the AP Top 25 and 19th in the ESPN/USA Today rankings. Tennessee fell to #18 in the ESPN/USA Today poll and #20 in the AP Top 25. Vanderbilt’s Jeffery Taylor was named the SEC Player of the Week while Kentucky’s John Wall was once again named the freshman of the week.

SEC East.  The SEC East has become a two-team race between Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Both teams kept the pressure on the other by winning two games last week. The two teams face off Saturday night in Nashville, which has been a “house of horrors” for UK recently. Neither UK or Vanderbilt can afford to look ahead to Saturday’s battle as both face very tough road games first. UK travels to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt to Ole Miss in the tuneups for their showdown. Tennessee, who had a horrible week with losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, now falls three games back and you would think they are pretty close being out of the race. They are two games behind Vanderbilt, but they were swept by the Commodores and even if the Vols win out, they have to hope both UK and Vandy go 3-3 the rest of the way. Likewise, Florida is out of the race at three games back, but will definitely help to decide who wins the title as they still have Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the schedule. As of right now, no team in the SEC East is an easy win. South Carolina effectively knocked Florida out of the race this week, and then the Gamecocks had their hopes dashed by last place Georgia. Georgia has officially become the team no one wants to play. Despite their 3-7 conference record, they have knocked off Vanderbilt and South Carolina in two of their last three games.

SEC West.  The SEC West is an even tighter race as Mississippi State and the surprising Arkansas Razorbacks are tied at 6-4.Arkansas seemed to relish their role as West leader when they pounded LSU by 35, but then lost a tough game to Alabama to finish 1-1 on the week. The Bulldogs moved into a first place tie this week by winning both their games, and in the process completed a sweep over Ole Miss. Ole Miss is 0-3 against the two co-leaders, having lost to Arkansas, so while the Rebels are just a game back, they currently lose any tiebreakers with both leaders. Alabama (3-7 the last ten games) seems relegated to a potential spoiler as they face both Mississippi teams down the stretch. Auburn and LSU seem destined to just play the string out.

NCAA Tourney Bids.  So, what does all of this mean for the SEC’s tournament bids? Sadly as of right now, I think only three teams (Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee) have firmly punched their ticket for the NCAA Tournament. Of the Western teams, I would say that Mississippi State is almost in and I would say 4-2, possibly 3-3 down the stretch, will punch their ticket. Is there a possibility for a fifth bid?

There’s a possibility, but it would take some work. Mississippi has a pretty favorable schedule but may need to go 5-1 to get in, and one of those wins needs to be over Vandy as the Rebels are low on quality wins. Florida lost to Xavier on Saturday and lost a great chance at a quality win. I would say the Gators need to get to 21 wins and win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. To get to 21, UF will need to win a tough road game at Georgia plus get two wins against either Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee or Ole Miss. The UF/Ole Miss game may very well act as a “play-in” game for the SEC when they play Saturday night. Arkansas has to be mentioned as a possible tournament team due to the fact they currently are tied for first in the West and with Courtney Fortson can give anyone trouble. In the end, their 13-12 record dooms the Hawgs to having to win the SEC Tourney to go to the NCAA Tournament.

In all reality, five SEC teams will make the tourney and possibly six if a “surprise team” can win the tournament. The SEC has several other teams that should see postseason play in the NIT/CBI tournaments. I think the loser of the Florida/Mississippi game would head the the NIT, along with South Carolina, Alabama, and possibly Arkansas. The Razorbacks are truly an enigma as they could win the SEC Tournament or miss the NIT all together. I don’t know if Georgia can win enough games to merit a NIT bid, but this is a good young team that can gain valuable experience in the other postseason tourneys.

Moving ahead, lots of key SEC matchups are on tap this week so let’s look at the best games of the week:

• 2/16 – Kentucky @ Mississippi State – 9 PM – ESPN
• 2/17 – Georgia @ Tennessee – 8 PM – ESPN 360
• 2/18 – Vanderbilt @ Mississippi – 7 PM – ESPN U
• 2/18 – Auburn @ Florida – 7 PM – ESPN
• 2/20 – Florida @ Mississippi – 12 PM – CBS
• 2/20 – Tennessee @ South Carolina – 1:30 PM – ESPN 360
• 2/20 – Kentucky @ Vanderbilt – 6:00 PM – ESPN