Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

On Tuesday, 68 teams still had hopes of reaching college basketball’s pinnacle on April 4 in Houston.

Over a week later, 68 have been whittled down to 16. Whether it’s heavy favorite Ohio State dispatching of their inferiors without breaking a sweat or VCU stunning the hoops world with their thrashings of Georgetown and Purdue, each of the 16 preparing for this weekend’s games have taken alternate routes to this point. Regardless of location, draw or circumstance, this select few is thrilled to still have a pulse.

Let’s delve into each Sweet 16 participant from two polar opposite points of view: the indelible optimist and the hopeless pessimist.  Everywhere from Lawrence to Richmond, fan bases are filled with those that see the glass half full and those that view the glass half empty. The optimist will take the viewpoint that their favorite team is destined for Houston while the pessimist sees the bitter end approaching Thursday (Friday’s teams posted tomorrow):

Did Kemba save some magic for the Aztecs?

Connecticut

Optimist: We have the best late-game scorer in the country, a weapon that’s simply uncontrollable with the shot clock winding down and the chips on the table. Unlike the Kemba Walker show that dominated the early months of the schedule, our secondary pieces continue to grow and mature tremendously. Alex Oriakhi has posted three double-digit scoring and rebounding games in our last five contests, Jeremy Lamb is reliable scoring option #2 and Shabazz Napier allows Walker an opportunity to create scoring looks off the ball. Nobody is hotter or brimming with more confidence than my Huskies, who have won seven in a row against #6 seeds or better.

Pessimist: Fatigue has to start to wear on a team consisting of mostly freshmen and sophomores that haven’t been through the rigors. Thursday’s game will mark the tenth game they’ve played in the month of March only. Kemba Walker has rested a grand total of 21 minutes in that brutal stretch. Running on adrenaline can only take him so far; eventually, his legs are going to give and his jump shot will certainly follow. The bruising nature of the San Diego State frontcourt will surely intimidate the inconsistent Oriakhi and we simply lack the depth to match the likes of Malcolm Thomas, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard should he disappear or pick up two early fouls. SDSU also ranks in the top 25 in both two point and three point FG defense. Our pedestrian numbers on the season- 47% from two and 33% from three- will only exacerbate that strength.

San Diego State

Optimist: This team matches up phenomenally with Connecticut and Duke. If Oriakhi disappears like he has in the past, Calhoun has to rely on Charles Okwandu or Tyler Olander and that’ll be their death sentence. Frankly, the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly aren’t a concern. Our bread and butter all season has been defense; with Leonard and D.J. Gay struggling to find their shots late in the season and against Temple, we simply locked down on the other end. UConn hasn’t faced a physical defense like ours since Pittsburgh and there’s no Gary McGhee on this roster that’s a liability switching against ball screens for Walker. We can also throw our steady, dependable senior guard Gay at Walker and make his life plenty more difficult. Our main weakness is three-point shooting and UConn was middle of the pack in the Big East at defending the outside shot.

Pessimist: Did you watch that game against Temple? The second half exemplifies the scoring struggles this team has exhibited all season. We have nobody to drain perimeter jump shots lately with Gay struggling and Fisher unable to compromise our defense and play James Rahon extended minutes. We just don’t have a reliable scoring threat at the end of shot clocks to match the wits of Walker and I can easily envision a devastating lull offensively late in the second half of a tight ballgame. It’s not like UConn won’t be prepared for a physical, athletic defense. They’ve only seen it all year long in the bloodbath that can be the Big East, and, counting the postseason, they’ve won 15 of those duels. The way Leonard was disrupted by the length of Lavoy Allen was deeply concerning and makes me think that Roscoe Smith could do the same for the Huskies.

Duke

Optimist: When Coach K hinted that Kyrie Irving may play limited minutes against Hampton, we immediately became the national title favorite. I was scared to death of Texas; with Joseph and Balbay they can throw two outstanding perimeter defenders at Nolan Smith and Irving and I had zero confidence in Miles and Mason Plumlee containing Tristan Thompson down low. Arizona is a much easier assignment. Their guard play is mediocre offensively and they’ll become well-acquainted with the workings of both Smith and Irving on the defensive end. We’re so much Arizona’s superior defensively it’s not even comparable, another reason why Texas did us an enormous favor by blowing that game. San Diego State doesn’t have the backcourt to survive against our foursome and Nolan Smith can match Walker point-for-point late if Connecticut comes calling. We went 5-20 from three and beat an ultra-confident Michigan team, showing those handful of games where we were dependent on making threes to win are in the past, especially with Irving back in the fold.

Pessimist: I may be in the minority, but I’m not convinced Irving returning is the best thing for this team. Coach K even admitted that he coached two Duke’s this season: one in November with Irving and one the rest of the season without. Now we’re going to transition impeccably back to November Duke without missing a beat? I was much more confident in our ability to score with Smith controlling the basketball at the point and utilizing ball screens at the top of the key. I’m worried about Derrick Williams completely taking  Singler out of his game. Kyle has scored 12 per game in his last four and even missed three straight free throws on Sunday. We may not need him against Arizona, but beating either San Diego State or Connecticut without Singler’s services is a stretch.

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• On Sunday, Ohio State blew out a very solid George Mason squad. Because of this, many are wondering if anyone will be able to stop the Buckeyes. It will be almost impossible if they keep putting up performances like Sunday.
• Former Tennessee point guard Bobby Maze believes that current Ohio State guard Aaron Craft is responsible for turning Bruce Pearl into the NCAA for Pearl’s illegal recruitment barbecue. Maze’s reasoning is that Craft grew upset when the Vols beat the Buckeyes in last season’s Sweet 16. Is Maze simply defending the man who brought him in or is there some truth to his allegations?
• Kentucky has a storied history of impact freshmen. One publication believes that it must be asked if Brandon Knight is the best freshman in Wildcat history. It may be a bit of an exaggeration, but the article is definitely worth a read.
• Everyone knows North Carolina can score points in transition. Just about every team led by Roy Williams, whether it was his teams at Kansas or those at Chapel Hill since he took over in 2003,  lives and dies by its ability to get up and down the court in a hurry. Marquette head coach Buzz Williams believes the key to his squad’s Sweet 16 matchup with the Tar Heels will be stopping transition opportunities.
• ACC Defensive Player of the Year John Henson has some attributes other teams cannot prepare for: timing, instincts, and an 88-inch wingspan. Henson has been a stalwart defending the interior all season and it will be hard for Marquette to drive to the bucket with him standing in the way.

Southeast

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Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

We’re down to sixteen teams, so it’s time to visit with each of our regional experts and analyze what happened in each of the four regions and what should be expected this coming weekend. Every one of these predictions is guaranteed to be absolutely and totally correct.

Region: Southeast

New Orleans Has Hosted Many Epic NCAA Games

New Favorite: #2 Florida (28-7, 13-3 SEC). After Pittsburgh’s loss to Butler, the Gators move to the front of the Southeast pecking order. They’re playing very well but did struggle at times against UCLA. To tell you the truth, I feel any of the four teams left in this region can make it to Houston but I’ll give Florida a slight edge.

Horse of Darkness: #8 Butler (25-9, 13-5 Horizon). They shouldn’t be creeping up on anyone this year but the lowest seed in this region is still a nine-loss team out of a mid-major league and must be considered the dark horse. Butler is playing its best basketball of the season and has a chance to beat Wisconsin and then Florida/BYU to reach the Final Four for the second straight season. I wouldn’t put it past them.

Biggest Surprise (1^st Weekend): #8 Butler (25-9, 13-5 Horizon). As I said, they shouldn’t be creeping up on anyone but the way they got to New Orleans was surprising. The Bulldogs had to knock off two incredibly physical and well-coached clubs to get to the Sweet Sixteen, winning by a combined three points. The good news for Butler? They were just as physical and well-coached as Old Dominion and Pittsburgh, plus the same applies to matchups with Wisconsin and whoever they would get should they make the regional final.

Completely Expected (1^st Weekend): #2 Florida (28-7, 13-3 SEC). In a region where the #1 seed was knocked off early, the #3 was expected (by quite a few people, including yours truly) to lose to Gonzaga and the #4 was the trendy first round upset victim, the #2 Gators held serve and won two games. Florida had no trouble with UC Santa Barbara, trouncing the Gauchos in the first round. A tougher than expected game against UCLA was next but Florida survived and advanced to New Orleans where many folks figured they’d be when the brackets came out last week.

I’m Exceptionally Smart and Prescient: My “Lock of the Year” in the Southeast Bracket Prep last week said Pittsburgh wouldn’t make the Final Four despite what some perceived as an easy draw for the Panthers. Viola! Jamie Dixon and company made an early exit after the bizarre finish to their game against Butler. Dixon’s teams are too physical to win in March (called for lots of fouls), plus they don’t score with enough consistency to be a Final Four threat. We’ve seen this movie before and the sequels keep coming year after year. I even warned the readers their second game wouldn’t be easy, saying the Panthers “may be shocked by Butler or Old Dominion.”

Except When I Make Stupid Predictions: I filled out multiple brackets but I failed to follow my own gut and picked Pitt to make it to Houston in my “main” bracket. I’m also kicking myself for doubting Bo Ryan and Wisconsin. I foolishly went with Belmont, thinking the Bruins’ quick pace would disrupt the Badgers. Silly me, slow and steady usually wins the race. That team is tough as nails and proved they could fight through adversity and win. Jordan Taylor struggled mightily against Kansas State before redeeming himself with two big free throws and a block towards the end of that game.

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As you’re no doubt aware, we’ve had our cadre of correspondents traveling around the country to each of the eight NCAA sites over the weekend.  We’ve asked the guys to produce a weekend diary of the games they witnessed including analysis, commentary and opinion concerning the sights and sounds at their venues.  Our hope is that the diaries will give you insights into the games that you may not have otherwise had from watching them on television or catching the highlights package afterward.  Let us know how we do…

Note: for all of the opening weekend diaries, click here.

Location: Tampa, FL
Round: Third
Teams: Florida, UCLA, Kentucky, West Virginia
Date: 19 March 2011
Correspondent: Collin Sherwin

The Gators Advance to S16 First Time Since Back-to-Back (GS/A. Daye)

• Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones from Kentucky are expected to head to the NBA, and they’ll both be high enough picks in a lousy draft that they probably should leave (assuming there’s no lockout that takes an entire year away). Tyler Honeycutt from UCLA really impressed me as well. He really controls the game for a smaller forward, and can fill it either off the bounce or on the perimeter. His comparable is probably a lesser Stephen Curry, and the rumor is he’s going to the League as well. If there was ever a year to justify leaving early, this is it.
• I don’t see how Florida does it. It took some miracle shots from Erving Walker to get them past a more talented UCLA that dominated them inside. Reeves Nelson and Josh Smith were having their way with the Florida bigs, but somehow didn’t seem to be getting the ball enough. The Gators had no answer for the tandem inside, and are the classic “donut” team without a legitimate big. Patric Young for UF really looks like a manchild out there, and has a huge motor, but he’s still a bit raw. He could be a solution in the future, but I was honestly surprised that UCLA didn’t pull that game out. On most nights, the 7th seeded Bruins would advance, but Walker picked the right day to have possibly the best game of his career. The shot he hit from his rear end with about a minute to go left me with two images; the ball going in and the roar from the crowd, and a UCLA assistant coach slamming his portfolio into the chair next to him in frustration.
• At halftime of UK-WVU, with the Wildcats down 41-33, I had no doubt Kentucky would win. No team that athletic and strong can be held down forever. John Calipari isn’t known as an X’s and O’s guy, but his adjustments to the WVU matchup zone were what led his team to a 9-0 run to start the second half. And I’m not sure why against inferior opponents he continues to call set plays. With the talent he has on the floor, their basic dribble drive motion offense is more than enough for teams to deal with by itself. Why waste some shot clock on a set when if you stick to your pattern you’re most likely going to get a good look in 35 seconds?
• I think Chandler Parsons is almost too unselfish, and needs to assert himself more as a scorer. He’s 6’10 with unlimited range and clearly a good basketball IQ. I wouldn’t mind seeing him attack more, even if to help free up more space for his teammates. Would like to see him gain more of that killer instinct, but part of the problem is Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have the ball in their hands a very high percentage of the time. I think the Gators have to find him a way to get more touches in spots where he can score.

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• No one team had a more impressive day yesterday than the Ohio State Buckeyes. Their tremendous play may be due the emergence of freshman point guard Aaron Craft, who dished a career-best 15 assists. Craft, who comes off the bench, plays starter’s minutes for Thad Matta’s squad.
• Once thought to be an afterthought on John Calipari’s Kentucky team, big man Josh Harrelson has made a huge contribution in leading the Wildcats to the Sweet 16. If Kentucky wants to continue its run, Harrelson needs to keep putting up solid numbers.
• After their second-round upset over Syracuse, former bubble team Marquette is headed to the Sweet 16. Head coach Buzz Williams, a man known for his wide variety of emotions, could not be happier with his squad.
• While Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes mostly lit up the stat sheet, Dexter Strickland served as a defensive menace in North Carolina’s win over Washington. Strickland was key in the Tar Heels’ comeback, as he was handed the assignment of guarding Washington’s Isaiah Thomas.
• Following Washington’s loss to North Carolina to end its season, many are beginning to wonder if junior guard Thomas will return to school or enter the NBA Draft. Last week, coach Lorenzo Romar acknowledged that he would encourage Thomas to at least test the waters. The Huskies have turned Brandon Roy and Nate Robinson to the league in recent years, so in that regard, another early departure would hardly be surprising.

Southeast

• Who would have thought at the midpoint of the season that Butler would be headed to another Sweet 16? Right now, their upset win over #1 seed Pittsburgh is gaining great acclaim across the country.
• While Florida is happy with its Sweet 16 berth, its ultimate goal is beyond the Sweet 16. This should not be surprising, as the program knows how it feels to win college basketball’s ultimate prize.
• After their healthy win over Gonzaga, BYU finds themselves in the Sweet 16. One Salt Lake Tribune columnist argues that the Cougars have a chance at the Final Four.
• Wisconsin has recently held the reputation of being a quality team that gets quality contributions from a variety of guys. This tournament, it seems as if their role players are stepping into a more important position.
• Florida’s advancing to the Sweet 16 was hugely influenced by the hot shooting of guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton. The two guards, who have struggled with inconsistency in their careers, look to be on a hot streak for Billy Donovan’s Gators.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com and we will update the post throughout the day.

East Region

• #1 Ohio State 98, #8 George Mason 66: “Playing at home in Cleveland, David Lighty led four Buckeyes in double figures with 25 points on a magma-esque 7/7 from distance (ties career high) and 9/10 from the floor overall as Ohio State sent another message to the rest of the NCAA tournament field via a 98-66 demolition of George Mason.” (Eleven Warriors or GMU Hoops)
• #11 Marquette 66, #3 Syracuse 61: “Marquette played an inspired game tonight against Syracuse and defeated their Big East brethren to earn their 14th Sweet 16 in school history and their first since Tom Crean’s Warriors went to the Final Four in 2003. The final score read 66-62 and it was every bit that close for most of the contest. Syracuse jumped out to a 7-0 lead and lead by as many as 10, but Marquette fought back to tie the game at 21-21. The remainder of the contest saw 11 lead changes in this back and forth affair.” (Cracked Sidewalks)
• #4 Kentucky 71, #5 West Virginia 63: “For Kentucky, this was a story of two halves. The first half, the Wildcats had a few minutes late in the period where they kind of gave up a little and allowed the Mountaineers unimpeded access to the basket. Combined with a couple of calls that went against UK, the Mountaineers put the ‘Cats in a big, eight point hole at the half. Why do I say big? Because you know that when you play West Virginia, you are going to get a low-possession grind-it-out game where big runs are fairly rare.” (A Sea of Blue)

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• George Mason took out a fizzling Villanova in the first round, and continues to carve its own identity separate from the 2006 Final Four squad. The Wildcats’ season is over, and considering it lost 11 of its last 16 games, including its final six, perhaps it’s for the best.
• The blistering performance Marquette put on Xavier Friday night sent a big message to its doubters. The Golden Eagles shot 57% on their end, and put the clamps on star Musketeer Tu Holloway. Next for Buzz Williams‘ team is Syracuse, a team Marquette beat earlier this season.
• The Tar Heels broke out in the second half to pull away from Long Island. The high-scoring final outcome, 102-87, didn’t take long to become a polarizing talking point between tempo-free stat-heads (UNC gave up 0.89 points per possession) and traditional analysts (87 points allowed to a lower-tier mid-major)
• Syracuse stuck to its game plan of feeding Rick Jackson and polished off Indiana State. The game ended at 12:41 AM local time in Cleveland (more on this later), and set up an intra-conference battle with Marquette on Sunday (this too).
• For Lorenzo Romar and company, winning away from home has been a large concern, but it shook off the stigma, if only for one night, in their win against Georgia. Is it open season on Bulldogs head coach Mark Fox?
• West Virginia may mix in a 1-3-1 look on defense today when the Mountaineers clash against Kentucky. The game is a rematch of last season’s regional final in Syracuse, when WVU bested John Calipari‘s team in the Carrier Dome.

Southeast

• The Southeast region has a full slate on Saturday, including a battle between Florida and UCLA. Though the rosters have turned over, UCLA can exact revenge from elimination at the hands of the Gators in the 2006 and 2007 Final Fours.
• Gonzaga faces the same question posed to the 35 teams on BYU‘s schedule to this point – how do you stop Jimmer Fredette? It seems like there’s nothing out of the realm of possibility from 30 feet in for Fredette, so Gonzaga’s defenders need to be on high alert.
• Free throw proficiency has been a major factor to Wisconsin‘s success this  season, which is on the line in Saturday’s game against Kansas State. The Wildcats need to show patience in defending Wisconsin’s attack, and play smart defense.
• Butler guard Ronald Nored had to swallow his pride and accept a late-season move from a starting to role to a contributor off the bench. Will he provide a spark against the top-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers?
• For all the attention Jacob Pullen receives (and deservedly so), Rodney McGruder is one of Frank Martin‘s more underrated players. Six-foot-four guards who average six boards a game don’t fall out of the sky.

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Saturday promises to be a great day of matchups in the Third Round of the NCAA Tournament.  On paper at least, there isn’t a single one of the eight scheduled games that shouldn’t be competitive.

#4 Kentucky vs. #5 West Virginia – East Region Third Round (at Tampa, FL) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS.

At first glance, West Virginia would appear to match up fairly well with Kentucky. The Mountaineers employ two fifth-year seniors while Kentucky trots out three freshmen in their slim rotation. Bob Huggins is 7-1 all-time against John Calipari, including last year’s Elite Eight triumph over the top-seeded Wildcats. The frontline of Kentucky, featuring only one consistent rebounding presence in Josh Harrellson, would seem to match up poorly against the assembly line of Mountaineer forwards and centers that finished sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. The reason we think Kentucky bucks this conventional wisdom is twofold: 1) a predominantly young Kentucky team may have discarded of their lackluster performance in the first round when they secretly felt showing up would be enough to defeat Princeton, and 2) the Wildcats are much more adept against a zone defense than they were last season because of the shooting ability of Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb. A key factor in West Virginia’s win over Clemson in the first round was the changing defenses Bob Huggins showed the Tigers, including a 2-3 and a 1-3-1 zone at various instances. Kentucky is eleventh overall in the nation in three-point percentage at just under 40% as a team and we think Knight will be on the board a lot earlier than the final offensive play of the game this time around. Kentucky simply has much more offensive firepower than West Virginia, who will have to out-tough, out-physical and out-rebound the Wildcats to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. John Calipari’s teams never receive enough credit for being solid defensively. Against a WVU offense that shoots just 48% from two and 34% from three, we believe Kentucky’s efforts on both ends of the floor will be sufficient.

The RTC Certified Pick: Kentucky.

#2 Florida vs. #7 UCLA – Southeast Region Third Round (at Tampa, FL) – 2:45 pm ET on CBS.

The Gators stomped all over UC Santa Barbara on Thursday while UCLA narrowly avoided what would have been an epic implosion, holding off Michigan State after nearly blowing all of a 23-point lead with under nine minutes to play. Aside from a couple of losses to Kentucky down the stretch, Florida has been playing great basketball coming into this tournament and it continued in their first NCAA game. To advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Florida has to stick to what they do best, scoring inside while knocking down some timely threes. The Gators have the height to match up with the turnover-prone UCLA forwards and should also enjoy an edge in the backcourt with a much better team three point percentage behind Erving Walker, as well as Kenny Boynton when he’s hot. The Bruins turned the ball over 16 times against Michigan State and a similar performance will result in plenty of fast break points and extra opportunities for the Gators. UCLA’s strength is up front, both offensively and defensively, but Florida can match the height and depth of the Bruins’ frontcourt. Reeves Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt need to have solid games for UCLA to be in the game down the stretch, otherwise Vernon Macklin and Chandler Parsons could take over on the boards and in the paint. These two teams are similarly constructed but the Gators have had more consistent guard play, especially from Walker. This is a really good matchup for Florida, in our opinion, and the Gators should advance from Tampa to the regional semifinals.

The RTC Certified Pick: Florida.

#12 Richmond vs. #13 Morehead State – Southwest Region Third Round (at Denver, CO) – 5:15 pm ET on CBS.

In yesterday’s interview session, Morehead State guard Terrance Hill referred to getting to the Sweet Sixteen as a goal for his team all season, “like Butler did last year.”  And his statement personified just how important this game is to non-BCS schools like Richmond and MSU — by winning one more game and advancing to the regional semifinals, it’s roughly equivalent in terms of status and prestige to a major program like Duke or Kentucky making the Final Four.  Given the fact that for both schools a power conference bully isn’t standing in their way to the regionals, neither wants to give an inch in pursuing the opportunity.  Still, even though Richmond isn’t a BCS school, they are a member of a high-mid league and Chris Mooney has a corps of four seniors in Kevin Anderson, Justin Harper, Dan Geriot and Kevin Smith who have been to consecutive NCAA Tournaments and have won ninety games in the last four years.  The offensive options available to Mooney are significantly better than those at the disposal of Morehead’s Donnie Tyndall, and it’s unlikely that the Spiders will be as careless with the ball as Louisville was on Thursday afternoon.  While Kenneth Faried is likely to pull down twenty rebounds against the slight Richmond front line, the Spider perimeter players are very good at locking down the opposing three-ball, holding opponents to a mere 30.5% (Morehead nailed nine, including the game winner, against Louisville).  Furthermore, MSU isn’t very good at stopping the three on their end, as Louisville was able to knock down ten, and UR, led by Anderson (42.7%), Harper (46.5%) and Darien Brothers (39.7%) makes a living as a team in bombing away.  With a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on the line, the smart money is on the team that isn’t as likely to have celebrated too hard — Morehead State won the biggest game in its history on Thursday; Richmond beat Vandy.  Who would you choose?

The RTC Certified Pick: Richmond.

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• Ohio State standout Jared Sullinger has basketball in his blood. If you recall, his older brother, JJ, pieced together a solid career for the Buckeyes in the early 2000’s
• Marquette head coach Buzz Williams believes Xavier guard Tu Holloway would receive acclaim similar to Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette if he played in a major conference. A high compliment, but it might be a bit of an exaggeration.
• With the memory of his late mother always in his mind, Indiana State guard Jake Kelly has led the Sycamores all season. It is tough not to root for a kid like Kelly, as he has battled through all kinds of adversity throughout his career.
• Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim believes that freshman big man Fab Melo is the Oranges’s “X-Factor” in this season’s tournament. This is a bit stunning to me, as Melo spent most of the conference campaign relegated to the bench.
• Georgia head coach Mark Fox may get a chance to battle his mentor, UNC head coach Roy Williams, if both teams advance to the second round. Fox got his start in the coaching world as a volunteer assistant at Kansas.

Southeast

• Florida guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton were key in the Gators’ rout of UC-Santa Barbara. The duo has battled inconsistency all season, but yesterday might be a sign of good things to come.
• After a fairly below average start to the regular season, Gonzaga is finally starting to look like the team they were thought to be. The Zags proved this in their upset of St. John’s.
• Pittsburgh big man Gary McGhee will seek revenge on his prep nemesis, Matt Howard, when the Panthers battle Butler in the second round. During the Indiana high school basketball and AAU seasons, McGhee never won a game against Howard.
• Wisconsin got a big contribution from forward Mike Bruesewitz in the Badgers’ victory over Belmont. The sophomore forward recovered from a late-season injury to provide Bo Ryan‘s squad the necessary spark off the bench.
• UCLA head coach Ben Howland will not rest following his squad’s victory over Michigan State. The Bruins have a big matchup with Florida on Saturday.

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Now that the Play-In First Four games are finished, let’s get back to normalcy with the best weekend of the year beginning this afternoon.  Sixteen games, eight sites, four television channels, and several million brackets busted by roughly 3:30 PM eastern time.

#5 West Virginia vs. #11 Clemson – East Region Second Round (at Tampa, FL) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS

Expect a low-scoring, gritty and physical opener for Thursday’s NCAA Tournament action, and not just because the tip time is barely after noon and Clemson arrived in Tampa just before the sun came up on Wednesday. Both of these teams pride themselves in their toughness defensively and play extremely hard on every possession. Clemson specializes in limiting opposing offenses inside the arc behind senior forward Jerai Grant prowess in the paint, while West Virginia limits their competition to below 30% shooting from the three-point line. While both Brad Brownell and Bob Huggins have a history of trotting out stalwart defenses, the edge offensively has to side with the Mountaineers. Kevin Jones has been playing his best basketball of the season as of late, posting three double-doubles in his last four outings. Casey Mitchell is a 38% gunner from deep that is tremendous off screens in catch and shoot situations where he barely needs any room to fire. Deniz Kilicli and John Flowers have aided what has turned out to be the sixth best offensive rebounding team in the nation, no surprise coming from a Huggins-coached squad. Clemson is merely middle of the pack in Division I in allowing offensive rebounds, so the Mountaineer frontline may be able to churn out extra possessions for their perimeter weapons throughout this game. Limiting Grant is certainly a challenge, but the WV frontline should be up to the task. Combine tired legs with Mitchell feasting on a perimeter defense that just surrendered 12 threes to UAB and the edge in this 5/12 matchup has to side with the Mountaineers.

The RTC Certified Pick: West Virginia.

#8 Butler vs. #9 Old Dominion – Southeast Region Second Round (at Washington, D.C.) – 12:40 pm ET on truTV.

Both teams have won their past nine games en route to conference tournament championships. Defense has been the key for each club during their winning streaks with Butler giving up 58 PPG and ODU at 57.7 PPG against over their last nine games. Old Dominion is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and that is where they have to take advantage of the Bulldogs. This game will be played almost exclusively in the half court with both teams preferring a slower pace. Butler ranks #11 in defensive rebounding percentage but the Monarchs are the best offensive rebounding team in the land. Blaine Taylor’s team must win this battle and protect the basketball in order to advance. They struggle at times with turnovers and lots of giveaways will negate their expected edge on the glass. Look for the Monarchs to work inside utilizing star big man Frank Hassell as well as Keyon Carter and Kent Bazemore. Butler allows 48.7% FG inside the arc and that could hurt them against the frontcourt-oriented Monarchs. Butler shoots almost 21 threes per game behind Shelvin Mack, Zach Hahn and even Matt Howard (44%). Add in the recent play of Shawn Vanzant and you have a team playing as well as they have all year. ODU is very poor against the three, their biggest vulnerability. Bazemore is a terrific defender and needs to come up big on that end against the Bulldog guards. Both teams are experienced and obviously did well in last year’s tournament so they won’t be intimidated by the big stage. While the focus will be on Howard vs. Hassell in the post, this game could be determined by guard play.

The RTC Certified Pick: Butler.

#4 Louisville vs. #13 Morehead State – Southwest Region Second Round (at Denver, CO) – 1:40 pm ET on TBS.

We’re quite sure that Louisville head coach Rick Pitino could only shake his head in disgust when he saw his team’s opening matchup on Thursday.  An in-state mid-major whose greatest strength — a dominant glass-eater by the name of Kenneth Faried — bears stark contrast with his Cards’ greatest weakness, interior play.  Over the years, Pitino has mastered the art of using team defensive principles to stymie players like Faried by throwing two and three bodies at him everywhere on the floor.  The Cards will need to again, because Faried’s nonstop motor and Rodman-esque knack for finding the ball is the best in the nation (he corrals 20% of offensive rebounds and 31% of defensive rebounds while he’s on the floor), something his players know all too well after facing Morehead State (and Faried) in the same round two seasons ago (Faried went for 14/11 in a 20-point loss).  He’s gotten better, and so has his team.  The good news for Pitino is that MSU is often sloppy with the ball, committing nearly fifteen turnovers a game, and the Eagles don’t defend the three very well (36.9%), which will allow ample opportunities for the Louisville shooters to get good looks from deep.  Two seasons ago a stronger Louisville team went into halftime only up two points on a weaker Morehead State team; expect a similar situation this year, as the relative strengths and weaknesses offset each other.  Ultimately, the Cards will find enough points through hustle and desire to fend off the school located two hours east, but we’ll forgive Pitino if he lambastes the committee for giving him this dangerous opponent for the second time in three years.

The RTC Certified Pick: Louisville.

#7 Temple vs. #10 Penn State – West Region Second Round (at Tucson, AZ) – 2:10 pm ET on TNT.

While the Owls are 25-7 and the higher seed here, this is not a team that is at full strength. They have played their last eight games without center Michael Eric, who will not return this year, and the last seven without swingman Scootie Randall, who is holding out hope that he will be able to go Thursday. The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, are at full strength, but their full strength means that their five starters are ready to play a whole lot of minutes, with only sporadic contributions from the bench, which averages less than eight total points per game. And given the pace at which Penn State plays (their games average just 60 possessions, in the bottom two percent of the nation), a pace which Temple will have little objection to, we’ll have a low-scoring, limited possession, defensive battle that will likely come down to seeing which of the two teams makes the most plays in the final few minutes. Because of that, the Lions may have the edge. Not only do they have four seniors amongst their five main players, but Talor Battle is an explosive scorer given the limited number of possessions he works with. And, among their five man rotation, only Andrew Jones is a poor free throw shooter. For Temple to counteract the experience of the Lions, they’ll need to get plenty of inside production from physical freak Lavoy Allen, while perimeter players like Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt and point guard Juan Fernandez will have to take advantage of a PSU defense that likes to pack it in and force their opponents to beat them with their jump shot. Unfortunately for the Owls, even if Randall does make it back for this game, their most efficient offensive player does not figure to have his legs back, and Temple may come up a bit short.

The RTC Certified Pick: Penn State

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