Morning Five: 04.13.11 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on April 13th, 2011

  1. A number of players made NBA stay/go decisions on Tuesday, beginning with RTC NPOY Kemba Walker, who formally announced that he will be heading to the League after his junior season, the most celebrated in UConn men’s basketball history.  The point guard projected as a lottery pick will sign with an agent soon, leaving no possibility of an encore performance in Storrs.  On the other side of the country involving a player in the same high school class as Walker, UCLA point guard Malcolm Lee announced that he too is leaving for the NBA and will sign with an agent.  Despite being a top recruit three seasons ago, Lee never quite became the superstar he was supposed to be, and is currently only projected as a second round pick in this summer’s draft.  UCLA head coach Ben Howland had counseled Lee to return for his senior season, but he decided that it was time to move on from Westwood (maybe he didn’t want to play in the LA Sports Arena — we wouldn’t blame him).
  2. Two other athletic phenoms will also be entering this year’s NBA Draft, as Georgia’s Travis Leslie and Florida State’s Chris Singleton announced on Tuesday their intentions to leave college a year early.  Leslie formally made his announcement yesterday, joining all-SEC forward Trey Thompkins in leaving Mark Fox’s program, while Singleton hasn’t officially announced yet but was apparently outed by his school’s media relations department in this report about his upcoming Wednesday press conference.  Both players are likely first round selections.
  3. In a phenomenal indication as to just how difficult it is perceived to win at The U, Harvard’s Tommy Amaker decided on Tuesday he’d rather stay in Cambridge as the head coach of the Crimson rather than moving south to Coral Gables as the Hurricanes seek to replace Frank Haith.  Amaker must figure that if he can get Harvard to the NCAA Tournament next season (a distinct possibility), he’ll have a much better choice of winning jobs at his disposal — probably a smart move.  Now, Miami is said to be looking at Mike Davis (Alabama-Birmingham), Tony Barbee (Auburn), Donnie Jones (UCF), Billy Kennedy (Murray State) and Rob Jeter (Wisconsin-Milwaukee) as possible new candidates.
  4. There was a big piece of transfer news on Tuesday, as former Utah star Will Clyburn announced that he will be matriculating at Iowa State next year and become eligible to play in Ames for the 2012-13 season.  Expressing a desire to move closer to his home town of Chicago (and having played JuCo ball at nearby Marshalltown CC), the all-MWC forward who averaged 17/8 last season is excited to join a program under Fred Hoiberg that he feels is moving in the right direction.
  5. Billy Donovan’s Florida staff suddenly looks like a dream team of sorts as the school announced the hiring of former Arkansas head coach John Pelphrey and former St. John’s head coach Norm Roberts on Tuesday.  Pelphrey and Donovan, of course, are very close, with the duo coming up together at Marshall and earning their stripes later at Florida in the 1990s, building UF into a national power before Pelphrey moved on to South Alabama and Arkansas.  Both Pelphrey and Roberts found themselves in tough situations, but it’s safe to say that these will be short-lived stopovers for them until other big-name schools offer them another chance.  It’s certainly better than sitting on your couch.
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NCAA Regional Diary From San Antonio

Posted by rtmsf on March 29th, 2011

After another weekend of scintillating and shocking NCAA Tournament results, it’s time to check back in with our various correspondents who were in Anaheim, San Antonio, New Orleans and Newark reporting on the games this weekend.

Location: San Antonio, TX
Round: Regional Final
Teams: VCU, Kansas
Date: 27 March 2011

To read all the diaries throughout the NCAA Tournament, click here.

The San Antonio Riverwalk is Always a Hit.

  • This is the second time in this Tournament that I’ve personally witnessed this happen (Gonzaga vs. St. John’s being the other).  Kansas’ strategy from the opening tip was to get the ball inside early and often to their big men, Marcus and Markieff Morris.  It worked in the beginning as the twins got KU off to a 6-2 start, but VCU started to figure out the entry passes, and before long the Kansas guards were trying to throw the ball into a quadruple-team underneath.  The perimeter players weren’t looking to score at all, and I sometimes wonder if a focused strategy to take advantage of a strength (as here) actually backfires in the sense that the perimeter players don’t have an opportunity to play offensively.  In the Richmond game, as a contrasting example, the KU perimeter players got going early and UR as a result was out of the game by the second television timeout.
  • I love Shaka Smart for many reasons, not least of which is his bulldog mentality of taking on all comers, but watching him get down into a defensive crouch on the sidelines as his players guard the ball on that side of the floor is phenomenal.  He moves his feet very well for his advanced age of all of 33 years old.  With Brad Stevens Lambeau Leap into the team circle after beating #1 Pitt last week, and Smart acting as a sixth defender for the Rams, youth in the coaching ranks is most definitely served.
Shaka Can!
  • Whew, Markieff Morris (eight turnovers) and Tyrel Reed (1-9 FGs) would like to have this game back.  Through the first twelve minutes of action, Markieff had already turned the ball over six times to VCU, including a ridiculous Ewing-step-through travel that he damn well knows better than to do in the college game.  Reed suffered a miserable game, and he never looked less comfortable than when Kansas was in desperate need of someone — anyone — to hit some threes down the stretch, but he was badly off on all of them.  It was pretty clear to me from my vantage point that both of these guys were feeling the pressure of expectations, and they were generally crushed by it.
  • I liked Self’s decision to try to get Josh Selby into the game early to combat the scoring woes of his team on the perimeter.  Other than Selby, none of the KU guards are elite talents capable of scoring on demand.  It didn’t work out today, as Selby went 1-5 for two points and clearly wasn’t feeling it, but it was still worth the gamble.  He couldn’t have done much worse than the pair of Reed and Brady Morningstar (2-16 FGs).
  • Speaking of Selby, has any freshman in America been a bigger disappointment this season?  Hailed as the possible missing piece to a dominant KU team, he looked good in December before tailing off completely the rest of the way to become nearly a late-season afterthought.  It’s not very often that high school players good enough to rate #1 in the nation by at least one scouting service will suffer such a weird diminishment of his playing time and influence.  Yet, had he been akin to a John Wall or even a Brandon Knight, Kansas might still be playing.  The perimeter absolutely killed the Jayhawks today.

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NCAA Sweet Sixteen Game Analysis – Friday

Posted by rtmsf on March 25th, 2011

Last night surely didn’t disappoint, with two games going down to the wire in the early session and a Duke-struction in the second session.  Tonight’s games are heavy on the Cinderella factor, which could be a good or a bad thing, depending on your perspective.

#2 North Carolina vs. #11 Marquette – East Regional Semifinal (at Newark, NJ) – 7:15 pm ET on CBS.

Marshall Makes the Carolina Attack Dangerous

Vegas lists Carolina as only a 4-point favorite heading into the first of two excellent matchups in the Newark regional, but we anticipate a much steeper climb for Marquette than the bookmakers anticipate. The daunting challenge for Buzz Williams will be finding some way to contain the Carolina bigs on the offensive end, notably 6’11 John Henson and 7’0 Tyler Zeller. The Golden Eagles are perennially undersized and plain old toughness and heart can only carry a team so far against superior talents that hold considerable physical advantages. Moderately-used sophomore Chris Otule is the only Marquette player that stands above 6’8 and he must have a career night defensively against either Henson or Zeller. Williams will likely send double teams in the post to aid his forwards in post-up situations just as they did with tremendous success against Syracuse’s Rick Jackson. Sagging off shooters to help in the post could coax the Heels into taking a few too many outside jumpers beyond the arc, a spot on the floor where UNC shoots just 33% on the campaign. Also look for Marquette to attempt the slow the tempo and keep the game in the halfcourt to neutralize Kendall Marshall’s outstanding passing ability in secondary break situations. If Carolina gets off to their usual slow start in the first ten minutes, falls into a shooting funk and one of Henson/Zeller slips into foul trouble, pulling off the upset is a possibility. That’s a lot of ifs. Not only does Carolina hold a considerable advantage down low, but also at the all-important point guard position. While Marquette employs a platoon of actual two-guard Dwight Buycks and the rapidly improving but inexperienced Junior Cadougan, what Marshall has meant to this Tar Heels team down the stretch cannot possibly be overstated. Marshall has dished out 24 assists compared to six turnovers in the tournament thus far and Carolina has only twice to Duke since he was instituted as the starting point guard ahead of the now-departed Larry Drew. A key reason why Marquette upset both Xavier and Syracuse was turnover differential. We’re leaning towards Marshall being able to dictate tempo without turning the basketball over. UNC advances to a showdown against either Ohio State or Kentucky with a trip to Houston on the line.

RTC Certified Pick: North Carolina.

#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond – Southwest Regional Semifinal (at San Antonio, TX) – 7:27 pm ET on TBS.

This is the game considered the biggest mismatch of the Sweet Sixteen, with one of the two co-favorites to win the national title lacing up their sneakers to play a mid-major darling, the Richmond Spiders.  To presume Kansas will run away with this one, though, is to make an error of judgment inconsiderate of two things: a) just how well Richmond is playing lately; and b) a recurring tendency by the Jayhawks to allow lesser teams to hang with them longer than they should.  Chris Mooney’s team is built like a mid-major with some high-major talent and athletes on its roster.  The Spiders like to spread the court and play a modified Princeton offense with their big men capable of knocking down jumpers as well as hitting cutters from the high post. Nearly every Spider starter can hit threes, befitting of a team that nailed long  balls at a tenth-in-the-nation best 39.9%.  The two players that the Jayhawk must key on are all-Atlantic 10 performers Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper. Both are athletic players who can pop for 25 on a given night, and with Dan Geriot capable of pulling a Morris twin outside and hitting long jumpers in addition to the range Harper has in his arsenal, the lane should be open for the classic penetration/kicks and the backdoor cuts that the offense is noted for.  As for Kansas, its defense on the perimeter is typically good, holding teams under 30% for the season from deep, but they are small outside, and if the UR big players are able to hit shots, they will keep Richmond hanging around this one.  KU obviously has a huge advantage inside, and as Vanderbilt’s Festus Ezeli showed in the Second Round, if Kansas remembers to throw the ball into the Morris twins from time to time, the big duo should have a combined 40-50-point night.  One problem with Bill Self’s team in this tournament is that they’ve yet to put a complete performance together; they looked and played tight against Boston University for much of the game; and Self even mentioned it afterward.  There were parts of the Illinois game that looked similar.  If Richmond starts nailing some early threes and gets Kansas down 8-12 points, how will the Jayhawks react?  Will they stay calm and play to their strengths inside; or will they panic and face another Northern Iowa situation?  It’s a compelling storyline, and one that will only be answered tonight in San Antonio — it says here that the Morris twins will be too much for UR to ultimately handle.

RTC Certified Pick: Kansas.

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RTC Live: Regional Semifinals – Friday

Posted by rtmsf on March 25th, 2011

RTC Live will be in both Newark and San Antonio tonight for another night of Sweet Sixteen action that includes not one, two or three, but four double-digit seeds — will more than one remain after this evening?  Join our correspondents as they take you through tonight’s games from courtside.  Feel free to pepper them with questions and commentary throughout the night!

 

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Behind the Numbers: Structures and Strategies

Posted by KCarpenter on March 23rd, 2011

 
Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.
 
Nate Silver isn’t always right, but I’m beginning to wonder why I would ever bet against him. Last week, Silver published a consideration of seeding where he argued that because of the structure of the bracket, the eighth and ninth seeds are at a considerable disadvantage compared to much lower-seeded teams. This makes intuitive sense because the way the bracket is constructed the eight and nine have to play a top-seeded team before everyone but the sixteen seed. Still, it sounds funny and it is odd that a twelve seed has a better statistical chance of making the Sweet Sixteen than any other seed between seven and sixteen. I was intellectually able to read and understand this logic, yet I ignored the fact that because of this quirk in seeding, George Mason was worse off in terms of having a shot at making the Sweet Sixteen than Virginia Commonwealth or Richmond

The Spiders Perhaps Weren't As Much of a Surprise After All

One eight seed made the Sweet Sixteen. The rest of the Sweet Sixteen party crashers? Two eleven seeds, a ten, and a twelve, including Virginia Commonwealth and Richmond. If you tally up the rest of the seeds, this looks pretty much like Silver’s predicted distribution. The structural inequalities of the bracket should have told us to expect more second round (excuse me, “third round” upsets) from the seeds in the 10-12 range. Of course, are these even really upsets? The Pittsburgh loss to Butler was a genuine shock but the rest of the “upsets” really seem to fall upon the coin flip in the flat part of the s-curve.  Silver notes that the composite computer “power ratings” show essentially the same difference between first and second seeds as between the fifth and thirteenth seeds. What this means is what we knew all along: the best teams are in a whole separate class from the bulk of the teams in the tournament, while the majority of teams are at close to the same level. This is a long way to get to this essential point: We shouldn’t be surprised to see VCU, Richmond, Marquette or Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen.

We also shouldn’t act like the bracket design is done affecting who makes the Final Four and who wins the championship.  Ken Pomeroy was quick to run the log5 probabilities of the remaining sixteen and had some interesting findings. While you would think that winning two games would have increased every team’s chances of winning it all, you’d only be mostly right. San Diego State and Kentucky actually saw their chances at a championship drop as the biggest obstacles in their path to the championship refused to be upset. Conversely, Kansas’s location in the decimated Southwest Region has made them a near-prohibitive favorite to make the Final Four. Likewise, Pittsburgh’s ignoble fall in an already weak Southeast Region has given the Wisconsin Badgers a real shot at a championship. The Badgers’ calculated chances of winning it all went from a mere 2.5% to 9.5%. Of course, technically, that’s a tiny increase in proportion to the change in VCU’s chances. The Rams went from having a 0.0005% chance at a championship to a 0.2% chance at winning the big one. While those are still long odds, their chances of winning increased 400-fold. So that’s worth something.

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NCAA Regional Reset: Southwest Region

Posted by rtmsf on March 22nd, 2011

We’re down to sixteen teams, so it’s time to visit with each of our regional experts and analyze what happened in each of the four regions and what should be expected this coming weekend. Every one of these predictions is guaranteed to be absolutely and totally correct.

Region: Southwest

The Alamo City Host a Behemoth and Three Cindys

New Favorite (Same as the Old Favorite):  #1 Kansas, 34-2.  Kansas is one of the biggest favorites a region has ever seen, as a #10, a #11 and a #12 seed remain opposite the mighty Jayhawks in San Antonio.  While Florida State, VCU and Richmond are all capable teams with varying strengths and weaknesses, none of the three pose a serious threat to KU so long as Bill Self’s team shows maturity and takes them seriously.

Horse of Darkness:  #10 Florida State,  23-10.  In two NCAA Tournament games, the Seminoles are firing on all cylinders defensively, holding Texas A&M and Notre Dame to a total of 107 points and a defensive PPP of 0.86.  When you’re locking teams up like that, especially offensive juggernauts like the Irish, then you have a chance to win any game you play.  VCU is beatable, but Kansas is a completely different animal. 

Biggest Surprise (1st Weekend):  Three Double-Digit Seeds Advancing.  Nobody, and we mean nobody, would have had this bracket unless they were shooting darts or perhaps was a Richmond native who attended Florida State.  It’s so rare that in the twenty-seven years since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, three double-digit seeds have never made the same regional.  Until this year.  It’ll certainly make for an interesting group of fans in the Alamodome, as two smallish schools and a football school join a hoops powerhouse in San Antonio. 

Completely Expected (1st Weekend):  Kansas Advancing.  The Jayhawks didn’t really dominate Boston University nor Illinois over the weekend, but unlike Duke and certainly Pitt, they weren’t really threatened either.  The Southwest Region was already one of the weaker ones; with the bloodbath of high seeds that got eliminated over the weekend, it’s become even more so.

I’m Exceptionally Smart and Prescient: It’s not easy to act smart in a region that blew up like this one, but my Sweet Sixteen Sleeper, Richmond, was a good choice.   Pointing out that Louisville is prone to stinkers and that UR should be able to defeat Vandy was a phenomenal call, which will surely more than compensate for this one… 

Except When I Make Stupid Predictions: Calling VCU Overseeded at #11.  Ok, maybe Jay Bilas Inceptioned my brain or something, but in terms of VCU’s resume, they were in fact overseeded and maybe that is now contributing to how well they’re sticking it to the power conference teams in this bracket.  Everyone underestimated this team because, while we knew they had talent, they hadn’t played like it down the stretch this year.  Now they’re a game away from the Elite Eight and nobody is counting them out at this point.

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NCAA Third Round Games Analysis – Sunday

Posted by rtmsf on March 20th, 2011

Well, Saturday’s games were a mishmash between unbelievable endings (seriously, unbelievable), competitive contests, and Jimmer from thirty feet.  What will Sunday have on tap for us?

Ed. note – some of the later games will be added as the day moves forward…

#2 North Carolina vs. #7 Washington – East Region Third Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS.

Arguably the best matchup of the second round takes place in Charlotte on Sunday with Washington squaring off in a semi-road game against North Carolina. One factor to immediately keep in mind is the quick turnaround for the Huskies, who had to play after midnight on Friday and prepare for a noon tip not even two days later. While this matchup could produce a high number of possessions and end-to-end action, a breakneck pace may do more harm for the underdog Huskies than anything. When the Heels are vulnerable, it’s when teams keep them glued in the halfcourt and unable to execute Roy Williams’ secondary break, where Kendall Marshall has proven himself as one of the best fullcourt passers and fast break orchestrators since replacing Larry Drew in January. The point guard duel is absolutely fascinating. Isaiah Thomas has whittled down his turnovers this season and is playing more like a true floor general, while Marshall’s insertion into the starting lineup has boosted his supporting cast and sent the Heels on an upward trajectory. While this game could escalate into the 80s if Washington’s wings get going from deep, North Carolina emerges on top because of their defense. Marshall’s story, the emergence of John Henson and the rapid improvement of Harrison Barnes shooting the basketball have been the primary headlines, but UNC has been rock solid on defense since November, ranking seventh in the country in efficiency on that end of the floor while the Huskies lag behind at 48th. Down the stretch in a tight ball game, we simply expect the Heels to generate more stops and move on to Newark.

The RTC Certified PickNorth Carolina.

#1 Duke vs. #8 Michigan – West Region Third Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 2:45 pm ET on CBS.

With Kyrie Irving, who returned on Friday for his first action since early December when he injured his big toe, the Blue Devils are an entirely different team. Not that they needed a ton of help, with National Player of the Year candidate Nolan Smith having filled in admirably at the point, but with Irving back, Smith can shift back over to his more natural two and bigs like Miles and Mason Plumlee will get a boost from Irving’s penetration ability. It remains to be seen exactly what Irving’s role will be for Mike Krzyzewski in close games, but without a doubt, Irving gives him another major weapon. For the Wolverines, coming off a thorough second half destruction of Tennessee on Friday, it all begins and ends with Darius Morris. He’s Michigan’s leading scorer and assist man, and shutting him down will be Duke’s primary focus. With Smith being an excellent defender in addition to his offensive skills, expect him to get that job. Inside, Jordan Morgan is the sole reliable big man for John Beilein, and he probably doesn’t have the ability to exploit what could be Duke’s sole weakness, it’s interior and rebounding game. While wing Zack Novak does a terrific job helping out on the glass, the combination of the Plumlees, Ryan Kelly and Kyle Singler will be enough for the Devils to win the inside game, while their guards get out and score in transition and knock down threes in the halfcourt game. Michigan can keep  the game tight for a while by controlling the pace and riding their momentum from their second round game, but there are too many talented guards here for Michigan to control.

The RTC Certified Pick: Duke.

#1 Ohio State vs. #8 George Mason – East Region Third Round (at Cleveland, OH) – 5:15 pm ET on CBS.

Ohio State’s second round entrance was no surprise, but George Mason needed some more of their March heroics in the final minutes to shut down Villanova’s guards and live another day. Luke Hancock will need to pull out a few more stepback threes from his arsenal if Mason wants to etch their program further into March lore and knock off the overall #1 seed. As you might expect, the Buckeyes are superior to the Patriots in just about every facet. Ohio State ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, third in effective FG%, eighth in turnover%, first in steal%, they shoot 42% from deep led by Jon Diebler and 53% from inside the arc courtesy of Jared Sullinger. This is a phenomenal six or seven man rotation that understands their roles and execute on both ends to near perfection. It’s going to take a yeomen’s effort from Mason to pull off the shocker, and that means excelling at what they’ve done all season and catching some breaks along the way, i.e., Sullinger picking up two early fouls or Diebler experiencing an off-day from deep. Like any mid-major looking to pull an upset, they’ll need their stellar 39% mark on the season from three to hold up, meaning Andre Cornelius, Isaiah Tate and Cam Long better have the stroke from three. Mason also held opponents to just 31% from behind the arc on the season. If they can contain either Sullinger inside or the perimeter workings of the Buckeye guards, they’ll have a shot, and Mason does happen to be the highest efficiency team a #1 seed has to face in the second round. In the end, the Bucks simply have too many options capable of springing for 20. It’s going to be a few steps down the road, if at all, until OSU is slain.

The RTC Certified Pick: Ohio State.

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Bracket Prep: Southwest Region

Posted by rtmsf on March 14th, 2011

Throughout Monday, we’ll be releasing our Bracket Prep analyses of each of the four NCAA Tournament regions.  The order will be as follows — please check back throughout the day for all four (all times eastern).

  • West – 9 am
  • Southeast – 11 am
  • Southwest – 1 pm
  • East – 3 pm

Region: SOUTHWEST

Favorite: #1 Kansas (32-2, 14-2 Big 12). When the Kansas that showed up on Saturday afternoon in Kansas City is the team we get, the Jayhawks are the favorite not only in this region but in the entire NCAA Tournament.  The problem is that isn’t always the team that plays (witness the near-miss against Oklahoma State on Thursday).

Should They Falter: #2 Notre Dame (26-6, 14-4 Big East). Many observers had the Irish pegged as the fourth #1 seed over Duke given their sterling numbers on paper, so we know they’re capable.  Quite possibly playing as well as anyone the past two months, Mike Brey’s team is well-positioned in its bottom half of the bracket to make a run at the Final Four.

Grossly Overseeded: #11 USC or VCU (19-14, 10-8 Pac-10; 23-11, 12-6 CAA). It’s questionable whether either of these two First Four teams should even be playing in this Tournament, and for them to get an #11 seed slot instead of a #12 or #13 is equally irresponsible.  Before playing near home and making a run to the CAA finals, VCU had lost four of five games; USC had been playing better of late, but the Trojans also went through a Pac-10 stretch where they lost seven of ten (remember, we’re talking about the Pac-10 here, not the Big East).  The #12 seed in this region, Richmond, is better than both of these two teams, and they’re also playing like it.

Grossly Underseeded: #6 Georgetown (21-10, 10-8 Big East).  We’re hearing that Georgetown’s straw that stirs the drink, Chris Wright, will play in the NCAA Tournament, and if he’s near 100%, the Hoyas are much better than a #6 seed.  If not, or if he’s closer to 50% productivity, then JT3’s team is very much overseeded.  Guess we’ll find out on Friday which is which.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): #12 Richmond (27-7, 13-3 A-10).  The Spiders received a favorable #5/#12 matchup in playing Vanderbilt, a BCS team that will not wow you with its athleticism.  They also defend the three very well, holding teams this year to 30.1%, an important consideration with Commodore sharpshooters John Jenkins (40.8%) and Jeffery Taylor (36.4%) very capable.  #4 Louisville in the second round would be difficult, but the Cards are a star-less team that sometimes drops a stinker against an inferior team (see: Providence, Drexel).

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): #6 Georgetown (21-10, 10-8 Big East). Again, it completely and totally depends on the health of point guard Chris Wright.  If he can go, the Hoyas are quite capable of knocking out #3 Purdue, #2 Notre Dame and, under certain circumstances, #1 Kansas.  Their offense is so much more effective with Wright leading the charge that Georgetown has only broken sixty points in one game since his injury.

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RTC Live: ACC Quarterfinals

Posted by rtmsf on March 11th, 2011

Games #199-200.  The evening session in Greensboro will give us a classic rivalry as well as an important bubble game.

7 pm.  Duke vs. Maryland.  There is no good will between Duke and Maryland. While the Blue Devils’ rivalry with North Carolina has shades of mutual respect, the rivalry with Maryland is one of pure unadulterated hate. Maryland has lost twice to Duke, but gave the Devils a real scare in early January by nearly stealing one in Durham. The question of this game, as it has been for an increasing number of game, is Kyle Singler. In the two prior games against Maryland, Singler scored a critical 25 and 22 points. Singler’s recent slump is cause for concern given how important he has been to victory over Maryland. Conversely, this matchup against the Terrapins may be just what Singler needs to get over his slump.For Maryland, the focus will be on defense. In January, Maryland boasted the most efficient defense in the entire country, but have now slumped to eighth in the conference. If Maryland can play effective defense against Duke’s elite perimeter scorers and set loose Jordan Williams on the soft Duke interior, an upset is a very real possibility.

9:30 pm.  Virginia Tech vs. Florida State.  While Virginia Tech looked like world-beaters on defense last night against hapless Georgia Tech, Florida State’s defense is even better. Boasting the seventh best defense in the nation and the third best in the ACC, the team has the potential to get even tougher. Chris Singleton, the presumptive pre-season Defensive Player of the Year for the ACC, is rumored to make his return as the anchor of a defense that was already well-nigh impenetrable. Singleton’s fractured foot side-lined him for the last chunk of the ACC season, but a return tonight spells bad news for a Virginia Tech team that counts on interior penetration to score. An additional worry is the long minutes that the Hokie starters played against Georgia Tech last night. While Florida State has likely already secured an NCAA berth, Virginia Tech probably needs at least this win to get off the bubble, and in all honesty, that might not be enough. Virginia Tech won against Florida State in January by 12 points, and last night they showed the power of their disruptive zone to flummox an offense. Florida State’s propensity for turning the ball over looks like a rough match-up against  a team that has the ball-hawking talent of Virginia Tech.

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ATB: Marshon Madness

Posted by rtmsf on February 24th, 2011

The Lede.  It’s Wednesday night, so that of course meant a lot of action around the country tonight.  From a new conference scoring record to a ridiculous banked buzzer-beater to an unfortunate injury to a star player, it’s all here tonight.  We have to jump in, though, with a performance by a guy who doesn’t get much in the way of pub, but who has put together an outstanding season for his school in the toughest environment in the country.

Feet Set, Shoulders Square... (ProJo/R. Perez)

Your Watercooler MomentMarshon’s Moment.  It’s been a trying year for Marshon Brooks and his Providence Friars.  In any number of other leagues, PC might have been good enough to finish in the top third and make a legitimate run at the NCAA Tournament.  Not so in the Big East.  The Friars have struggled through a 3-12 conference season after a solid 11-2 non-conference slate which was short on quality wins but long on confidence.  In many ways, tonight’s one-point loss to Notre Dame, 94-93, was a microcosm of a year that has included a number of close losses to good teams.  Senior Marshon Brooks did his best to change that fortune tonight, dropping a historic 52-point night on the Irish, including an absurd 35 points in the second half, to give his team a realistic chance to pull off the upset.  The victory didn’t happen, but Brooks’ performance was one for the ages, representing the best scoring output in a Big East regular season game EVER.  Considering the number and quality of players who have come through this league, it’s fairly amazing that Brooks now owns this record.  His he-man sized performance matches Lamar guard Mike James’ surprising 52-point effort back in early January (remember him? — he’s only scored 131 points since!) for the best scoring night of 2010-11, and without question tonight at the Dunk will be an evening that the fans and players in attendance will never forget.  For a team going nowhere fast this season, sometimes it’s moments of individual glory such as these that give a team something to hang its hat on.

Your Watercooler Moment, Pt. IIJosh Gasser, I-Banker.  Josh Gasser, a freshman guard on the Wisconsin Badgers, ended up with the ball in his hands after his teammate and star player, Jordan Taylor, was double-teamed on the last possession.  Down two, he fired away from long range, banking the ball into the basket and causing a fit of Badger mayhem at center court after the ball fell through the net.  Sometimes it’s just your year, and sometimes it’s not.  The home team, Michigan, has taken much more of the latter than the former, losing multiple close games that have put John Beilein’s Wolverines squarely on the thin side of the bubble.  Bo Ryan’s team, on the other hand, continues to win games to pressure Purdue and Ohio State in the Big Ten race; with the nation’s most efficient offense and the occasional stroke of luck as performed by Gasser tonight, the Badgers are going to be a major headache for teams that face them this postseason.

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