Ryan Dunn in the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun Conference.

Current Standings

1. Jacksonville (9-3 A-Sun, 13-8)
2. Lipscomb (9-4 A-Sun, 10-12)
3. Belmont (8-5 A-Sun, 13-10)
4. Campbell (8-5 A-Sun, 13-9)
5. East Tennessee State (8-5 A-Sun, 12-12)
6. Kennesaw State (7-6 A-Sun, 12-12)
7. Mercer (7-6 A-Sun, 11-12)
8. North Florida (5-7 A-Sun, 10-12)
9. Florida Gulf Coast (4-10 A-Sun, 7-16)
10. USC Upstate (3-9 A-Sun, 3-18)
11. Stetson (3-11 A-Sun, 5-17)

News and Notes

Each team in the Atlantic Sun plays each other twice and so far each team has at least played everyone in the league once.  So with more than half of the conference season out of the way we have named our all-conference team through the first half.

• G – Ben Smith (Jacksonville) – Smith was the preseason player of the year by many publications and although he started a little slow this season, he has really turned it on in conference play and is second in the A-Sun in scoring at 20 points per game.  If the Dolphins can win the regular season I wouldn’t be surprised to see him named as the conference player of the year.
• G – Josh Slater (Lipscomb) – This guy continues to amaze me with his play and if the season ended today he would no doubt be my selection for A-Sun player of the year.  The lefty can do it all, especially in the big games.  Just ask Campbell and ETSU.  Slater is the reigning player of the week in the league and could win the award again this week after his incredible performance at Campbell (scored 21 pts and hit the game winning three).
• G – James Florence (Mercer) – Florence got off to a sizzling start to the season but has cooled off as of late.  However, he is still averaging over 19 pts per game on the season and is quite possibly the most prolific scorer in the league.  Florence, just like Jonathan Rodriguez, will go down as one of the most productive players in school history.
• F – Adnan Hodzic (Lipscomb) – The big man was my pick for preseason player of the year and he has certainly not disappointed as he leads the league in scoring at just under 22 pts per game.  Hodzic also ranks fourth in the league in rebounding.
• F – Jonathan Rodriguez (Campbell) – The senior has shattered tons of team and conference records this season.  He now has over 2,000 points and over 1,000 career rebounds.  He will go down as quite possibly the most successful player in school history and he is currently leading Campbell to its best mark since 1992.

Team News

• Jacksonville has now won ten straight and could possibly be one of the hottest mid-major teams in the country.  They are pressing on defense and that has been the key to their success as of late.  The Dolphins take the brutal trip to Nashville to play Belmont and Lipscomb next.  If they can come away successful on that trip, the Dolphins may pull away in the A-Sun race.
• Lipscomb has won a couple games in a row but both games could have easily gone the other way.  They defeated ETSU in OT last weekend before knocking off Campbell on the road with a last second three-pointer by Josh Slater.
• Belmont is no doubt the hottest team in the league other than Jacksonville.  They are playing extremely well on the defensive end and are starting to make some shots from the perimeter, which is scary for the rest of the league.  Coach Rick Byrd always seems to get the most out of his teams and has done quite possibly his best job this season.
• Campbell was off to a sizzling 6-1 start to conference play and held a one game lead, but the Camels lost three straight and four of five before finally getting a win last night at Stetson.  After the game Saturday at Florida Gulf Coast, the schedule becomes more favorable with four very winnable home games in a row.
• East Tennessee State, just like Campbell, was in the middle of a skid before coming away with a victory over Florida Gulf Coast last night.  The Bucs are incredibly athletic but can be streaky from the perimeter and when they are hitting shots they have a tough time earning victories.
• Kennesaw State has a very young team but could have the most talented young roster in the A-Sun.  Freshmen Markeith Cummings and LaDaris Green have been crucial to the success of the Owls as of late.  Kennesaw continues to inch up the A-Sun standings and could be a scary team to play in the tourney.
• Mercer climbed to the upper half of the league before losing three straight and looks to be running out of gas. The Bears fell to Kennesaw State last night in a road contest that dropped them into seventh in the league. Mercer hosts the conference tournament so they desperately want to earn a top seed.
• North Florida continues to hang tough and will no doubt be a scary team to play down the stretch for any of the leaders in the league.  The Ospreys don’t have the most talented roster but they play extremely hard and have already pulled some upsets in league play.
• Florida Gulf Coast has a very talented group but they have struggled a bit lately.  However, they did earn a nice victory over Mercer last week and already earned a victory over Belmont earlier in the year.
• USC Upstate has lost three straight but they are also one of those teams you can’t sleep on as they have knocked off some the league’s best already this season.
• Stetson has struggled for much of the season, but have earned some key wins against ETSU and Mercer.  The Hatters have some work to do in order to make the A-Sun tourney, but as of now they are on the outside looking in.

Key Upcoming Games

• Jacksonville @ Belmont (2/5) – A battle between two of the hottest teams in the A-Sun that could be big for the upper half of the conference standings.
• Jacksonville @ Lipscomb (2/7) – Battle between the two top teams in the league at this point.
• Mercer @ Campbell (2/12) – Mercer knocked off Campbell at home so the Camels will  try to return the favor.
• Mercer @ ETSU (2/14) – A Valentine’s Day matchup between two teams that are currently struggling.  This game could be key in determining seeds in the A-Sun tourney.

A few notes:

• As you’ll notice, I included a comment about each and every team in the bracket. I’ll be doing this in each of my final four brackets (2/16, 2/23, 3/2 and 3/7) as we head towards Selection Sunday.
• Expect a Bubble Watch post from me on Thursday updating the current bubble picture, a feature that will run very similar to ESPN’s weekly bubble watch.
• As always, any questions/comments/complaints about this week’s bracket, feel free to comment.

Automatic Bids: Boston University, Xavier, North Carolina, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, Northeastern, Memphis, Butler, Princeton, Siena, Buffalo, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Robert Morris, Morehead State, UCLA, Holy Cross, LSU, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State

Last Four In: Arizona, Miami, Nebraska, Michigan
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, BYU, UNLV, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State
Also Considered: Georgetown, Texas A&M, Baylor, Creighton, Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Northwestern, Tulsa

1 Seeds

• Connecticut- The #1 overall seed and #1 team in the polls, Connecticut boasts 6 wins against the top 50 and still has two contests against Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.
• Oklahoma– The Sooners have the most wins vs. the top 100 (15) of any team, but only 1 of those victories has come vs. the top 25. They’re the #2 overall seed.
• North Carolina– The projected ACC champion has continued to win while Duke and Wake Forest slipped up multiple times. The showdown with Duke on Wednesday is for a #1 seed.
• Pittsburgh– Despite two conference losses, Pitt garners the final #1 seed due to their #2 RPI, 4 wins vs. the top 25 and a much stronger non-conference resume than Louisville.

2 Seeds

• Duke– Despite the throttling by Clemson, Duke still owns the top overall RPI and have 7 wins against the RPI top 50. They can reclaim the ACC automatic bid this week.
• Louisville– A sexy 9-1 Big East record and 4 wins vs. the RPI top 25 keep Louisville a comfortable 2. They should watch out for pesky Notre Dame this week.
• Michigan State– The projected Big Ten champion has stayed the same all season- Michigan State. A 7 RPI, 6 SOS and comfortable lead over Ohio State and Illinois means they should stay there.
• Marquette– The final #2 seed goes to the fourth Big East team in the field already- Marquette. They slipped in Tampa but still 9-1 and 20 wins overall is enough to grab the honor.

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Predicted Order of Finish:

North

1. East Tennessee St. (20-7) (13-3)
2. Belmont (19-12) (12-4)
3. Lipscomb (15-15) (10-6)
4. Campbell (13-16) (7-9)
5. Gardner-Webb (10-18) (6-10)
6. South Carolina – Upstate (6-21) (4-12)

South

1. Jacksonville (17-10) (11-5)
2. Mercer (17-12) (10-6)
3. Kennesaw St. (14-14) (10-6)
4. Stetson (13-15) (8-8)
5. Florida Gulf Coast (5-23) (3-13)
6. North Florida (3-24) (2-14)

WYN2K. The Atlantic Sun has been an up and down league over the past decade. It spent much of the late 90s and early 2000s as a league hovering at the top of the low-majors (#19-#23 ranked conference most years). But the last two seasons it has fallen hard, finishing as one of the bottom four conferences in the computer rankings both years. Its OOC record (70-174, .287) the last three years is standard for a league at this level. Still, the NCAA typically shows some love to the conference champion, having given the A-Sun only five #16 seeds in 64/65-team era (and two of those were when the league received multiple bids) and peaking with a #11 seed in 2001 (Georgia St. defeated #5 Wisconsin in the first round). The league has earned a #14 or #15 seed each of the last six years, and we see no reason for this to end.

Predicted Champion. East Tennessee St. (#15 Seed NCAA). We see Murray Bartow’s ETSU squad (16-2 last season in the A-Sun) as the team to beat here. They return league POY Courtney Pigram and bring in former juco D2 POY Kevin Tiggs, a combo guard from whom big things are expected immediately. As a program, ETSU is no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, having made the Dance two of the last five years (as a member of the Southern Conference) and seven times overall.

Others Considered. The A-Sun North division is clearly the class of the league, containing two-time defending tourney champion Belmont and rising Lipscomb. Belmont is a system program predicated on efficient ball movement (#21 nationally in eFG%) and tight defense (#5 nationally in eFG% defense), but the loss of their two best post men (Boomer Herndon and Andrew Preston) makes it difficult for us to pick them again. Lipscomb is another intriguing choice if for no other reason than they’re hosting the conference tourney this year – oh, and they’re 24-2 at home during the last two seasons. Jacksonville engineered one of the all-time greatest turnarounds last year, going from one win in 2006 to fifteen in 2007, and while they won eight of their last eleven regular season games, we’re not ready to push them past the more experienced teams just yet.

Games to Watch. There’s likely only one A-Sun game probably worth watching this year.

• Atlantic Sun Championship Game (03.08.08).

RPI Booster Games. The A-Sun has thirty games against BCS opponents scheduled this year, and hopefully it can perform a little better than last year when it was 0-34. There are some opportunities against lower-tier BCS teams, however, in the following list of games:

• Belmont @ Cincinnati (11.09.07)
• ETSU @ Georgia (12.21.07)
  
• Lipscomb @ Vanderbilt (12.08.07)
• Campbell @ South Carolina (11.28.08)
• Jacksonville @ Florida (12.03.07)
• Alabama @ Mercer (11.13.07)
• Kennesaw St. @ Auburn (11.13.07)

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. <5%. It’s extremely unlikely that this is a two-bid league, but if any team was going to make it so, it would be ETSU. It would require domination of the league as well as a scintillating non-conference record before they lose in the conference tourney – we don’t see that happening.

Neat-o Stat. We have a couple for the A-Sun. First, North Florida last season enjoyed the dubious distinction of having the least efficent offense in the nation, scoring a mere 79.6 pts per 100 possessions. Secondly, Florida Gulf Coast (one of four transitional schools making the jump to D1 in the A-Sun) is the youngest D1 university in America, having opened its doors to students in 1997.

64/65-Team Era. In 26 appearances, the Atlantic Sun is 3-23 (.115) over the era, scoring the #11 over #6 upset mentioned above, #12 College of Charleston defeating #5 Maryland in 1997, and #14 Arkansas-Little Rock defeating #3 Notre Dame (Digger!) in 1986. That UALR team then took NC State to double OT in the next round before succumbing – that is the closest the league has gotten to the Sweet 16 in its history.

Final Thought. Belmont has gotten destroyed by Georgetown (80-55) and UCLA (78-44) in the last two years in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It doesn’t appear that their style of play is conducive to pulling off an upset against a bigger, more athletic team. The league would have a much better chance at the first round upset if an uptempo, athletic team like ETSU earns the automatic bid.