Throughout conference tournament weekend, we’re going to pop in with some BGTD-style analysis at least twice a day.  Twelve automatic bids will be decided on this day, let’s take a look at some of the top storylines so far.

• Well, Hello, Memphis.  Nice to See You Again.  It’s seemingly been nothing but bad news out of the Memphis Tiger program this year.  From suspensions to players leaving to selfishness to really bad losses, pretty much everyone wrote Josh Pastner’s team off as a non-factor midway through the season.  Coming into the Conference USA Tournament, Memphis was considered one of several teams with a shot to win a balanced tourney, but with UTEP playing at home, the Miners were considered a slight favorite.  When the two teams matched up in today’s title game, you’ll forgive everyone for thinking the 74-47 beatdown the Tigers suffered two weeks ago might be indicative of what would happen today.  Instead, Memphis roared back from a 12-point deficit with six minutes remaining to nip UTEP by a single point and vault Pastner into his first NCAA Tournament as the head coach of the program.  This freshman-laden team has been unpredictable all year, but what #4 seed wants to see Memphis with its several Burger Boys opposite their draw as a #13 — are you serious?
• The Re-Introduction of Harrison Barnes.  It’s taken most of the season, but the Harrison Barnes that UNC thought it was getting when it signed the top prep player in America last year has finally arrived.  In his last five games, he’s gone for a minimum of 18 points and has started to look the part as an elite scorer comfortable with the ball in his hands.  It culminated today in a 40-point explosion that tied the all-time freshman scoring record in the ACC (held by Tyler Hansbrough) and represents the largest scoring performance in sixteen years of the ACC Tourney.  He’s now hit ten threes in his last two games, not bad for a player who only hit 45 all season, but the more important thing for Roy Williams is that he’s playing and shooting the ball with confidence.  As long as the talented wing keeps playing like he has been recently, UNC can go as far as anybody in the field (although we wouldn’t recommend constantly trying to play catch-up, as the Heels have led for only 36 seconds during 80 regulation minutes).
• Douglas Davis a New Ivy Legend.  In one of the best-played games of the entire Championship Week (it should have been on broadcast television rather than online), Princeton’s Douglas Davis had the moment of his young life when he dribbled right, pump-faked, and hit a fading-left step-through jumper to send Princeton back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in seven years.  Put the slightly-built junior guard from Philadelphia in the annals of Tiger history along with Gabe Lewellus and Bill Bradley as bonafide postseason heroes, and chalk Harvard and Tommy Amaker up as the hard-luck school who can finish first in everything except Ivy League basketball (no NCAA appearances as a member of the league).  Expect to see this moment many times over the next five days, as America has once again found its new favorite Cinderella to root for next week.

• Nolan Smith’s Toe.  Whatever concerns there were over Nolan Smith’s injured toe from yesterday’s ACC quarterfinals, those fears were quickly erased today as Smith went for 27/6 assts in 39 minutes of action where he looked pretty much as good as new.  This is obviously a huge relief for Duke fans everywhere, because even with the deep backcourt Coach K has at his disposal, not even the top Devil can overcome losing two All-American caliber point guards in the same season.  The win over Virginia Tech sets up a blockbuster rubber match between Duke and North Carolina on Sunday, with the winner very likely making a claim on a #1 seed in the Southeast Region (and playing in Charlotte/DC the first two rounds).
• More Auto-Bids. Other than Princeton, there were a few other automatic bids handed out this afternoon.  In the America East, Boston U. came back from a fifteen-point second half deficit on the back of its star, John Holland, who torched Stony Brook with a 14-0 streak by himself.  In the MEAC, Hampton ended the Morgan State stranglehold on that league (2009 and 2010 champs) in a game where losing coach Todd Bozeman accused a referee of “bias” against his team afterward.  Way to go, coach.  In the Southland, UT-San Antonio outlasted McNeese State with a young team that will head back to the NCAAs for the first time in seven seasons.  Welcome back, everyone.
• Bubbling Up.  Penn State is clearly off the bubble and into the Dance after today’s impressive win over Michigan State… Similarly, Richmond is likely safe after moving on to the A-10 championship game with an upset win over Temple…
• Bubbling Down.  Alabama could have used a better performance against Kentucky today to again prove its worth to the Committee, but that didn’t happen… UTEP probably needed to win on its home court with a double-figure lead late in the game to secure its bid…  Harvard is likely waiting another year, even though many people think they should at least be considered…  Michigan State is probably ok after two wins this weekend, but today’s loss ensures they’ll cause a lot of problems for some high seed next weekend.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

When we’re this late into Championship Week, every game is dynamite and a must-see event. There are too many games to preview in their entirety so here are a handful you absolutely have to watch today. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

ACC Semifinals (at Greensboro, NC): #5 Duke vs. Virginia Tech – 3:30 pm on ESPN (****)

With the status of Nolan Smith uncertain after suffering a toe injury yesterday (bad toes have killed the Blue Devils this year, right?), Virginia Tech can lock up a bid for certain with another win over Duke this afternoon. After a scintillating conclusion to their game against Florida State, one tenth of a second may be enough to vault this Hokies team into the Big Dance regardless of what happens today. If Smith can’t go, Kyle Singler and Seth Curry become Duke’s go-to players. Singler played like the guy we saw last year against Maryland yesterday, posting 29/9 on 10-15 FG, while Curry did a nice job filling in at the point after Smith left. Virginia Tech slowed the pace down in their win over Duke last month but more importantly committed only five turnovers in that game. The Hokies also held the Blue Devils to 20% shooting from three and owned the paint with Jeff Allen and Victor Davila combining for 29/25 in the win. To beat Duke for the second time, Seth Greenberg needs a similar game plan. If Duke can get out in transition, Virginia Tech’s limited depth will become a major concern, as will their propensity to turn the ball over. The Hokies are at their best playing in the half court where they work the ball inside to Allen and crash the glass, not when Malcolm Delaney is jacking up ill-advised deep shots leading to long rebounds and fast break points for the opponent. If Smith can’t go and Curry doesn’t make his teammates better, look for Virginia Tech to use a lot of zone (they might anyway) to force Duke into deep jumpers, especially Singler. He shot the ball poorly in the first meeting and was a big part of why Duke lost that game. A game like he had against Maryland will lead Duke to a win but Virginia Tech knows what is at stake and can definitely win this game if they stick to the blueprint we just outlined.

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Games #208-209.  It’s ACC Semifinal Saturday, with Duke and Carolina seemingly on a collision course for a third matchup.

1:00 pm.  UNC vs. Clemson.  Third time’s the charm? Clemson has fallen to North Carolina twice already this season, but comes into the semifinals with all the momentum that a dismantling of Boston College can buy. Additionally, Clemson comes in knowing that they have been close in the past. In the last meeting between these teams at Clemson, the Tigers came within two points and four seconds of upsetting the Tar Heels. In North Carolina, Clemson faces a team not so different from itself: both teams are elite defensive teams who sometimes struggle to score against other defensive-minded squads. Yet while North Carolina seeks to run, Clemson plays at a fairly slow pace. Expect Clemson to burn through every second of the shot clock as they try to control the tempo and increase their odds at an upset. Of course, this was the same strategy that Miami used, fairly successfully, until North Carolina’s stunning comeback..

3:15 pm.  Duke vs. Virginia Tech. After Virginia Tech’s surprising comeback against, Florida State, the question that the Hokies have to answer is whether or not they have the legs to take on this Duke team. The shorthanded VT team has leaned on stars Malcolm Delaney and Erick Green to play nearly 40 minutes each of the past two nights. With this Duke game coming less than 15 hours after their late-night victory, it seems likely that the Hokies will be exhausted. That said Malcolm Delaney and his team have played iron man minutes the entire season and showed a steely resolve against the Seminoles. The question for Duke hinges on Nolan Smith’s toe: Will the Player of the Year candidate even suit up? It’s a tough break for the Blue Devils, but Seth Curry showed himself to be a capable point man in the closing minutes against Maryland. Even more intriguing, Kyrie Irving’s tantalizing warm-up before the Maryland game suggested that the sensational freshman isn’t too far off from a return. Does Smith’s injury accelerate the timetable? Virginia Tech only lost to Duke by four points in a win that leaned heavily on Smith’s 18-point performance. Will his absence tilt the scales or will the sheer exhaustion of Seth Greenberg’s team be too much?

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Throughout conference tournament weekend, we’re going to pop in with some BGTD-style analysis at least twice a day. For a recap of the action earlier today, check out our afternoon BGTD post.

• Jimmer goes off. For most of the past week we have focused on who BYU doesn’t have (Brandon Davies) while seemingly ignoring the who they do have (Jimmer Fredette) and Jimmer reminded us how good he can be thanks to a ridiculous 52-point performance to knock off New Mexico, a team that had beaten the Cougars the two previous times they played this season. We aren’t saying that the Cougars are still a contender without Davies because we think they lack the depth to make it past the second weekend without him, but with Fredette and a decent supporting cast we wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Cougars in the Sweet 16. As for Fredette, this should basically be the stamp on his national player of the year campaign. There are plenty of excellent players this year (more on a few in a bit), but nobody has been as dominant throughout the entire seen as Fredette.
• OT at MSG. The Big East seminfinals provided us with a pair of excellent games that required an extra session. In the first semifinal Kemba Walker finally played like the phenomenal player we saw in Maui, but UConn still required an extra 5 minutes to knock off Syracuse after a pair of huge threes by Scoop Jardine late in regulation. In the end, Walker (33 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 6 steals) and Alex Oriakhi (15 points and 11 rebounds) were too much for the Orange. In the nightcap, Louisville overcame a 14-point halftime deficit against Notre Dame to force overtime and join the Huskies in the Big East finals. The key for the Cardinals was forcing Ben Hansborough into numerous poor shots as he ended the day 3 for 16 from the field. The Cardinals comeback victory sets up an intriguing Big East final match-up involving two of the league’s most controversial coaches who each have dealt with major issues in the past year (Rick Pitino‘s being personal and Jim Calhoun‘s being professional). One thing to watch for is the Huskies legs as they are attempting to become the first team in Big East Tournament history to win 5 games in 5 days. You might also want to watch for how the Huskies respond when they get to the NCAA Tournament as all these miles might begin to take a toll on them.
• Toe Problems at Duke. Normally we would brush off Nolan Smith‘s toe injury against Maryland in a game that the Blue Devils won handily, but given how innoucous another toe injury to another Duke guard (Kyrie Irving) seemed at the time we think the Blue Devils will be a little more cautious heading into their game against Virginia Tech.

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Games #199-200.  The evening session in Greensboro will give us a classic rivalry as well as an important bubble game.

7 pm.  Duke vs. Maryland.  There is no good will between Duke and Maryland. While the Blue Devils’ rivalry with North Carolina has shades of mutual respect, the rivalry with Maryland is one of pure unadulterated hate. Maryland has lost twice to Duke, but gave the Devils a real scare in early January by nearly stealing one in Durham. The question of this game, as it has been for an increasing number of game, is Kyle Singler. In the two prior games against Maryland, Singler scored a critical 25 and 22 points. Singler’s recent slump is cause for concern given how important he has been to victory over Maryland. Conversely, this matchup against the Terrapins may be just what Singler needs to get over his slump.For Maryland, the focus will be on defense. In January, Maryland boasted the most efficient defense in the entire country, but have now slumped to eighth in the conference. If Maryland can play effective defense against Duke’s elite perimeter scorers and set loose Jordan Williams on the soft Duke interior, an upset is a very real possibility.

9:30 pm.  Virginia Tech vs. Florida State.  While Virginia Tech looked like world-beaters on defense last night against hapless Georgia Tech, Florida State’s defense is even better. Boasting the seventh best defense in the nation and the third best in the ACC, the team has the potential to get even tougher. Chris Singleton, the presumptive pre-season Defensive Player of the Year for the ACC, is rumored to make his return as the anchor of a defense that was already well-nigh impenetrable. Singleton’s fractured foot side-lined him for the last chunk of the ACC season, but a return tonight spells bad news for a Virginia Tech team that counts on interior penetration to score. An additional worry is the long minutes that the Hokie starters played against Georgia Tech last night. While Florida State has likely already secured an NCAA berth, Virginia Tech probably needs at least this win to get off the bubble, and in all honesty, that might not be enough. Virginia Tech won against Florida State in January by 12 points, and last night they showed the power of their disruptive zone to flummox an offense. Florida State’s propensity for turning the ball over looks like a rough match-up against  a team that has the ball-hawking talent of Virginia Tech.

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Our evening BGTD for today is brief because our earlier session covered a majority of the day’s news.

• Big 12 Bubble. Shortly after Colorado‘s win over Kansas State–its 3rd in 3 games against the Wildcats–Missouri lost to Texas A&M. Even though Missouri has long been considered a lock and Colorado has been on the bubble for the past month it is worth noting that the Buffaloes have a surprisingly comparable resume. We aren’t saying that the Buffaloes deserve consideration for a 6 or 7 seed as their few horrible losses essentially knock them out of contention for such an honor, but they do have a good enough resume, particularly after knocking off Kansas State for a third time in three tries, to merit a spot safely in the field of 68.
• Tennessee begins to make its case. This season there have been few teams as confusing as the Volunteers. From their resounding win at Pittsburgh to their numerous perplexing losses they always find a way to keep us on our toes. At the start of tournament play the Vols would appear to be safely in the NCAA Tournament, but they must be keeping the Selection Committee up late at night trying to figure out how to seed them. A run deep in the SEC Tournament would go a long way toward getting them a higher seed, but even if they get stuck around the 8/9 line we can’t imagine many teams in that area that would be more formidable (at least on paper) than the Volunteers.
• Singler Steps Up. No, not that one. While Duke and the rest of the country wait for his brother Kyle to return to form it was E.J. Singler who was the star in the family tonight putting up 24 points and 7 rebounds in Oregon‘s surprising win over UCLA. Singler’s career high was enough to lead the 7th-seeded Ducks past the 2nd-seeded Bruins who will probably slip a line or two as a result of their early exit from the Pac-10 Tournament. UCLA’s early exit also opens up the door for Arizona to claim the postseason conference crown as well and make a strong case for a 4-seed or better when Selection Sunday rolls around.

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the ACC. With conference tournament action set to tip from Greensboro on Thursday, get set for March Madness with RTC’s regular season wrap-up and postseason outlook.

Postseason Preview

North Carolina is hot.  It took almost all of the regular season, but the Tar Heels are finally living up to preseason hype.  UNC  should definitely be favored to win the ACC Tournament, but I wouldn’t bet on them.  I think the Heels are due for one more hiccup before the Big Dance.  They’ve flirted with disaster a couple of times and are coming off a huge win against Duke.  It’s tough to keep a young team focused, and this team starts two freshmen and two sophomores.  I also expect Duke to be playing with real purpose after the beatdown in Chapel Hill as it fights for a top seed.

As far as the bubble is concerned, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Boston College all need wins.  I don’t think any of them are safe at this point (which is the unfortunate part of Clemson clinching the bye).  Unfortunately, Clemson and Boston College will probably meet in the second round in a de facto “win and in” game.

Besides interesting bubble match-ups, look out for Duke and Maryland in the second round.  Maryland has been down this year, but the Terps never back down from a fight (especially one with Duke).  Also keep an eye on the semifinals when Boston College or Clemson will probably meet North Carolina.  The Tigers and Eagles both played North Carolina incredibly close in Chapel Hill, and both would really benefit from the resume boost.

The most exciting conference tourney prospect is a rubber match between Duke and North Carolina in the tournament finals.  These two teams are far and away the best teams in the conference, and both are in the conversation for a number one seed.  Oh yeah, and who wouldn’t want a third game of one of the best rivalries in sports.

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1. The ending of the St. John’s–Rutgers game has created quite a bit of controversy and within an hour the Big East had already issued a statement that the officials made a mistake on the last play when Justin Brownlee stepped out of bounds with 1.7 seconds left. As Stewart Mandel points out that was just one of several missed calls that went St. John’s way. Even though though the Rutgers coaching staff appeared to be taking the high road after the game we would expect quite a bit of discussion between the school and the Big East over the next week about the officiating during the game.
2. When the NCAA announced its punishment for UConn last month Jim Calhoun was initially quite vocal about his displeasure with the decision although he later took a step back and agreed that ultimately he was responsible for the actions of his program. Despite that admission there were a handful of media members who wondered whether Calhoun would appeal his 3-game Big East suspension. Yesterday, Calhoun finally announced that he would accept the suspension and would not be appealing. Frankly it was probably the best move for Calhoun and UConn as many have stated that it was a relatively light punishment (ignoring the potential effect on his legacy) and an appeal would only distract the team as they head into the NCAA Tournament with what should be a fairly high seed.
3. Coming into this season most people expected the college career of Perry Jones to be relatively short. It turns out that it might be a few weeks shorter than expected as Jones was suspended prior to the team’s game against Oklahoma for taking “impermissible benefits” related to loans his mother was given while Jones was still in high school. Baylor has stated that they plan to appeal the NCAA’s ruling, but even if they get him back it will most likely be for a NIT game as they lost by 17 to the Sooners yesterday and have lost 5 of their last 6 games to close the regular season. Although Jones was a solid contributor the team’s season will likely be considered a failure as Scott Drew was unable to lead the Bears back to the NCAA Tournament after losing to eventual champion Duke last year in the Elite 8 and returning the majority of the starting line-up including LaceDarius Dunn.
4. Mississippi State has been very protective of Renardo Sidney since his infamous brawl in the stands in Maui in December, but he finally opened up in an interview with a local newspaper where he expressed some regret for his behavior and admitted that he needed to get in better shape stating that in high school his playing weight was nearly 60 pounds lighter than where he presently is. While we have heard countless analysts talk about how bad his attitude is we have yet to hear a single one question his ability. If (and it is a big if) Sidney gets his head on straight there is no doubt that he could be a huge force for the Bulldogs and would almost certainly be a top 5 or 10 pick if he were able to put together a solid season next year and stayed out of trouble.
5. We are nearing the end of the regular season which means one thing–award lists. Ok, it means a lot of things (most of them more important than award lists). CNNSI announced their awards yesterday and we are having a hard time arguing with any of their selections. We are sure that some people will argue that a few of the guys in the honorable mention section should be a little higher, but we’re having a hard time seeing any huge omissions.

Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.

What’s the ideal team look like? Is it five equally skilled players who share the ball and can all defend and score? A super deep team with ten guys who could all start? Does the ideal team have an alpha dog and a clear hierarchy? A dynamic duo? Maybe, a Big Three? If it’s one superstar and role-players, where does the superstar play? Is he a guard or a forward? One of the things that I enjoy most about basketball is that there is no clear consensus on any of these ideas. There is no ideal. Instead, we have a multitude of competing styles on offense and defense, each individual style perfectly capable of winning a championship.

How Important is the Bench to a Contender?

In 2010, the national championship went to a Duke team with a Big Three approach, focused on the perimeter. In 2009, North Carolina won by balancing a primary post option in Tyler Hansbrough with three skilled guards. The Kansas and Florida championship teams leaned heavily on their skilled big men. The point is that there are successful precedents for most styles, independent of focus and number of focal players. Now, despite these precedents, there is a common idea that a limited number of focal players makes a team more vulnerable. Intuitively, this makes sense: it’s easier to stop one player than many. Likewise, if a team has a single focus, like post scoring, it seems intuitively easier to stop that without having to worry about other threats, like perimeter shooting.

These ideas make sense, but I’m not sure they hold up. Teams with a single focal point, a single powerful talent, have been successful. Notably, in 2003, the indisputably Carmelo Anthony-led Syracuse team won it all. In a similar vein, the 2010 Blue Devils’ lack of reliable post scoring didn’t seem to impede their success. So, at least anecdotally, a lack of balance doesn’t seem to be terribly lethal to a team’s hopes for a championship. But, what about the question of depth? Doesn’t having a deeper team help a team win?

Not necessarily. If we look at bench minutes percentage, a measure of how many total minutes were played by non-starters, we can get at least some measure of a team’s depth. Generally speaking, a deep team will have more minutes played by guys on the bench. Last year, the two teams that played in the final, Duke and Butler, finished 1st and 12th in Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean rankings. Looking at these contenders and the ten teams that finished ranked between them, there was only a single team that was above the median in bench minutes percentage. Every other team was in the bottom half of bench usage, while many, notably Duke and Butler, were in the bottom fifth. Somewhat surprisingly, the one top team that used the bench at an above average rate was Brigham Young, a team that was primarily known for the singular talents of Jimmer Freddette.

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David Ely is an RTC Contributor.

Introduction

Congrats are in order for the following teams that locked up automatic NCAA berths this week: St. Peter’s (MAAC), Old Dominion (CAA), Wofford (SoCon), Gonzaga (WCC), Indiana State (MVC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun) and UNC-Asheville (Big South). It’s always fun watching these teams celebrate their conference championships because the excitement just feels more honest than, say, when an Ohio State or a Pittsburgh wins its conference tournament. Championship Week is great for television purposes because there are so many great games to watch, but there usually is less urgency among the teams from the major conferences. For them, conference tournaments are about posturing for seeds and surviving the weekend injury-free. Roy Williams once called the ACC Tournament a big cocktail party, and it’s not surprising that his two title teams both bowed out in the semifinals.  

What We Learned 

Davies Will Obviously Be Missed, But Charles Abouo's Emergence Has Mitigated the Sting

If you’re a big time recruit and have BYU in your top five, you might want to reconsider your stance on the Cougars. Seriously, why would a player with options want to go to BYU now that its draconian honor code system is in the national spotlight. By now, everyone knows Brandon Davies (BYU’s third leading scorer and leading rebounder) was suspended from the BYU basketball team for allegedly having premarital sex with his girlfriend. Davies’ suspension is a crushing blow for the Cougars, who have gone from a sexy popular national title pick to a team some think won’t make it out of the first weekend.

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