I. Renko is an RTC columnist.

Question: Which Transfers Will Have the Biggest Impact This Season?

Every year, college basketball fans draw up their preseason predictions of conference champions and NCAA Tournament fields based on returning players and incoming recruits.  But each year, a handful of key transfers play a pivotal role in leading their teams to a conference championship or NCAA Tournament bid.  Which transfers are most likely to play that role this year?

Pierre Jackson and Gary Franklin, Baylor — With the return of Perry Jones and the addition of blue-chip recruits Quincy Miller and Deuce Bello (coming soon to an All-Name Team near you), expectations for the upcoming season in Waco are high.  The Bears have more raw talent than almost anyone in the Big 12 and have a realistic shot at a conference crown.  But Baylor also had quality talent and relatively high expectations last year, only to find their season upended by mediocrity at the most important spot on the floor — the point guard position.  AJ Walton was thrust into the role of replacing Tweety Carter and responded by posting an obscene 32.1% turnover rate.  In a not-unrelated phenomenon, the Bears finished the season ranked 322nd in Division I in team turnover percentage.

The Development of Franklin and/or Jackson Could Be the Difference-Maker for Baylor This Season

If Scott Drew can’t find someone to settle things down at the point this year, the Bears may disappoint again.  And that’s where Jackson and Franklin come in.  Jackson is a well-regarded JUCO transfer and Franklin a formerly touted recruit who transferred from Cal after just a semester.  Franklin will not be eligible until the spring semester, but both will have a chance to pin down the starting point guard job.  If either proves to be a stable floor general, the Bears could have their first conference championship in more than 60 years.

Iowa State’s Starting Lineup — Okay, so maybe the entire starting lineup won’t consist of transfers, but it might come close.  Fred Hoiberg is trying to resuscitate the Iowa State program by resuscitating the careers of several D-I talents, including Chris Allen (Michigan State), Royce White (Minnesota), Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois), and Chris Babb (Penn State).  They make this list as a group because collectively, they will have the single biggest transfer impact on any BCS program this year.

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Steve Fetch of Rock Chalk Talk is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12. You can find him on Twitter @fetch9.

Reader’s Take I

Top Storylines

• This is of course the last year for Texas A&M to leave its mark on the Big 12, and it could be Missouri’s as well. Both teams enter the 2011-12 season with serious conference title hopes,  but each comes with some question marks. Missouri lost Laurence Bowers to an ACL injury, which really puts a strain on their interior depth. They didn’t rebound terribly well in the first place, ranking 317th nationally in defensive rebounding, and the loss of the 6’8” Bowers, who was their best returning player on the glass, won’t help. A&M meanwhile still has Khris Middleton, but do they have anyone to get him the ball? Dash Harris had a turnover rate of almost 30% last year and an assist rate of only 21%
• Speaking of those two, the Big 12 has four new coaches this year, with Texas Tech and Oklahoma joining A&M and Missouri as teams with new head men. The Big 12 hasn’t had this many new coaches since 2007 when six of the twelve schools had first-year men on the job. I took a look at  how coaches in the Big 12 have done in their first year on the job and compared it with the historical performances of the programs who have new coaches at the helm this season, and it looks like all four could be in for rough times initially.
• Kansas has won at least a share of the last seven Big 12 titles, but in order or the Jayhawks to make it eight, Bill Self will have to do his best coaching job yet. He lost both the Morris twins and Josh Selby to the NBA, as well as the underrated Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar to graduation. What’s more, incoming freshmen Ben McLemore, Jamari Traylor and Braeden Anderson were all deemed ineligible. Kansas still has some talent to work with, especially Thomas Robinson, who had a tremendous summer.

Even Bill Self Has Admitted That This Season Will Be A Challenge For The Perennial Blueblood

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Kansas (14-4)
2. Baylor (13-5)
3. Missouri (13-5)
4. Texas A&M (12-6)
5. Oklahoma State (10-8)
6. Texas (9-9)
7. Iowa State (7-11)
8. Kansas State (5-13)
9. Oklahoma (4-14)
10. Texas Tech (3-15)

All-Conference Team (key stats from last season in parentheses)

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Chris Allen: The Essentials.

• Class: Redshirt Senior
• Position: Guard
• Height: 6’3″
• Weight: 205
• Hometown: Lawrenceville, GA.
• 2010-11 season: Ineligible due to NCAA transfer rules. Transferred from Michigan State in 2010.

Chris Allen Has a Second Chance at Iowa State

The Breakdown.

Second chances are a rarity in life, let alone basketball. But when Chris Allen was kicked off the Michigan State basketball team, he found a second opportunity for stardom at Iowa State. At Michigan State, he was often late for practices, argued with teammates, and made poor grades. In order for him to succeed this season, both on and off the court, he’ll need to show that he’s matured. According to his new coach, Fred Hoiberg, Allen has been nothing but a welcomed presence on campus in Ames. He’s not a true point guard, but he will likely be asked to bring the ball up the court during the majority of Cyclone possessions. Already the ISU underclassmen are looking to Allen as their senior leader, with Tyrus McGee saying “I look up to him because he’s an older guy. He knows the game more. He’s a quiet guy, laid back. He’ll sit there and listen, and he does what he’s supposed to do. That’s the real reason why I look up to him.” Allen has both the talent and the basketball IQ to complete a breakout performance, one that could possibly propel him into the NBA next summer. Here’s to hoping he recognizes the rarity and the good fortune of the second chance he has received at Iowa State.

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1. The predictions for Iowa State have been all over the place this preseason. Some buy into Fred Hoiberg‘s all-transfer team, and others are understandably skeptical about the situation. Of the four Division I transfers Hoiberg brought in, former Michigan State guard Chris Allen may be the most well-known name– and to prove it, the Associated Press devoted an entire article to Allen’s story. A member of two Final Four teams at MSU, Allen has played in 14 NCAA Tournament games in his career. Amazingly, as the piece points out, that’s the same number of tourney games ISU’s entire program has appeared in during the past 20 years.
2. We’ve heard all sorts of wild realignment scenarios recently, but this one may top them all: evidently, San Diego State has expressed interest in joining the Big 12. The league didn’t make an outright denial, but it told SDSU officials that it’s looking to stay “more East than West.” That’s certainly a nice way of putting it. Imagine the travel pain if this fantasy world actually materialized. We’re going to go ahead and make the assumption that the Big 12 will not expand to California — but hey, crazier things have happened, right?
3. For those of you convinced that Texas coach Rick Barnes only gathers McDonald’s All-Americans and lets them run wild, check out this breakdown of  a UT offensive set by a Longhorn blog. The writer thoroughly investigates Barnes’ flex principles and, in particular, a 1-4 set influenced by the Utah Jazz. It’s a fascinating, no-fluff piece that offers a look into the offense of a high-level basketball program.
4. It’s no secret that life hasn’t been easy this off-season for Frank Haith. Fans at Missouri wanted him fired after the opening press conference; an imprisoned booster from his former employer has accused him of cheating; and his starting forward just tore his ACL. ESPN’s Dana O’Neil sat down with Haith to check in on his temperament. As expected, he’s a little discouraged: “It’s been an offseason that’s been kind of lengthy,” Haith said.  Perhaps few coaches in America are looking as forward to actual practice and coaching than the new Missouri head coach.
5. Since we’re in the midst of unveiling a ranking of the Big 12 uniforms, we may as well pass along the news that Oklahoma State will wear gray jerseys at times this winter. This isn’t groundbreaking news, but the thought of the Cowboys wearing gray is a bit peculiar. Travis Ford said the team will get brand-new uniform designs in 2012-13, but gray is the mold in Stillwater for now. Incidentally, the football team also wore gray jerseys in the season opener this fall.

Brian Goodman is an RTC editor and contributor.

Year In Review

Before the start of the season, pollsters bought into Kansas State as the sexy pick to take the Big 12 in 2011 on the heels of an Elite Eight appearance in 2010. The Big 12 was not overly impressive in non-conference play, as the Wildcats fell hard to Duke in a de facto home game in Kansas City, and Missouri did the same against Georgetown in one of the more thrilling matchups of the early season.

As league play began, the preseason #3 Wildcats disappointed, starting 2-5, and the usual stalwarts of the Big 12, Kansas and Texas, rose to the top. After topping the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse in January, the Longhorns looked to be in the driver’s seat, especially after Kansas was blindsided at Bramlage Coliseum to give Texas a two-game lead. However, Rick Barnes‘ team suffered another late-season collapse, going 2-3 to finish the regular season while the Jayhawks dusted off the competition to pull ahead to take their seventh straight conference crown.

Elsewhere in the conference, the Wildcats bounced back to end the season in third place. The middle of the conference wasn’t settled until the latter stages of the season with Missouri falling lat and Texas A&M, Colorado and Nebraska treading water. Baylor underachieved, given the talented personnel in Waco, and Oklahoma State never really looked in sync. Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Iowa State all had awful seasons to finish at the bottom of the standings.

In the conference tournament final, Kansas played its best basketball of the season, topping Texas to gain some revenge entering the Big Dance. Colorado was snubbed on Selection Sunday despite beating Kansas State three times, but the Big 12 still managed to get five teams into the NCAA Tournament. However, only the Jayhawks made it out of opening weekend alive, and they fell short of expectations as they lost to Shaka Smart and the Rams’ reign of BCS destruction.

KU's front line of Thomas Robinson (left) and the Morris twins evolved into a strength, and the Jayhawks struggled most when they weren't utilized on offense. (AP/Jamie Squire)

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1. Jason Wright of the Deseret News sums up what he saw from the San Diego State students during last Saturday’s BYU vs SDSU game, and is still none too happy about it. After reading his account, we had some questions of our own for him: how can you blame the crowd for your daughter hearing that often-used and ineffective two-syllable expletive chant (it’s one word, by the way, Jason) after a bad call when it’s your hand holding the remote? You shouldn’t have had a problem changing the channel if this really was one of two games you’ve watched from start to finish this year, as you admit. And as far as BYU going off “to find other places to play?” Well, they did. Care to wager if the reception is any better in the WCC next season?
2. This isn’t a recycling of a previous M5 nugget, but it is a link to a story about a former Michigan State guard transferring to Iowa State. Last summer, it was Chris Allen. Now it’s Korie Lucious who’s headed to Ames. They’ll practice but won’t play together, since Allen will be on the court next year, a season Lucious must sit out before he returns for 2012-2013. Korie cited ISU coach Fred Hoiberg’s NBA connections as a reason for choosing the Cyclones.
3. At the Villanova @ Seton Hall game on February 15th, it has been alleged that the partner of Keon Lawrence’s mother (Lawrence had already been dismissed from the team) assaulted the mother of SHU guard Jordan Theodore in the stands. Later that night, Theodore, flanked by two dudes in ski masks, allegedly knocked on Lawrence’s dorm room door while packing a gun. Yeesh. Theodore now faces a charge of unlawful possession of a firearm on school property, despite the questionable testimony that led to it.
4. The glare problem in Oregon’s Matthew Knight Arena has been remedied, but the midcourt line controversy remains. That may soon change. In this story at the blog of The Oregonian, floor designer Tinker Hatfield comments on his inspiration for the court’s design, how he loves the controversy about it, what the symbols on the floor mean, and the competitive advantages that may be inherent in the design. As a defense for the lack of a highly visible half court line, he says that the center line at Kansas‘ Allen Fieldhouse is partially obscured by the large Jayhawk logo at midcourt [Ed. note: I’m looking at KU’s floor as I type this, and the whole center line is visible].
5. Tell us we haven’t seen the last of Fang Mitchell at Coppin State. The Eagles have been to the NCAA Tournament four times (1990, 1993, 1997, 2008) and Mitchell has been at the helm for each one. In his 26-year tenure, he’s won four MEAC Coach of the Year awards, and from 1992-98 his squads won 54 of 55 conference games. It’s been a tough decade for CSU, though, despite this year’s squad posting a 10-5 MEAC record going into their senior night game this evening against Morgan State. The Baltimore Sun’s Ken Murray writes that the winds of change may be swirling in Baltimore. Despite his evidence, we still hope it isn’t true.

So, now that that’s over…

1. Despite suffering that defeat at the hands of The Jimmer and BYU twelve days ago, there’s still a lot of love out there for San Diego State. And why not? They’re fun to watch, have multiple weapons, and have a great built-in story of redemption in head coach Steve Fisher. The New York Times’ Pete Thamel recently visited the Aztec boss and explains why there’s a lot more at stake this year for him than just a Final Four or a national title.
2. Ashton Gibbs leads his Pittsburgh squad in scoring (16.3 PPG), free throw percentage (89.7%), and three point percentage (46.3%). He drilled all five of this treys in the win against Cincinnati on Saturday en route to a 25-point night. Unfortunately for the Panthers, that’s the last contribution Gibbs will be making for a while. Gibbs has an MCL injury as a result of wear-and-tear to his left knee and will miss the next 10-14 days. He won’t need surgery, for now, but you’ll definitely notice him on the sideline with a very large brace on that knee.
3. The clubhouse leaders for Korie Lucious’ final year of service next season appear to be Iowa State and Marquette. Even with two Final Fours’ worth of experience under his belt, considering the year he’s had both on and off the court, is it worth it for a program to open its doors to Lucious? The Marquette site Cracked Sidewalks lists the pros and cons of bringing the dismissed Michigan State man aboard. For the record, we’ve still got our money on Iowa State, since Chris Allen’s there.
4. The tall, suited, enthusiastic, bespectacled fellow you see on the Ohio State bench during games is assistant coach and former Ohio Bobcat captain Jeff Boals. His distinct look (with the cool frames), reputation as both a coach and compadre among his players, and tweeting skills — we’ve been followers of @JeffBoals for well over a year, now — have inspired a couple of OSU students who sit near the bench during home games to adopt the coach’s appearance, right down to the hairstyle and specs, calling themselves the Boals Brothers. OSU’s Lantern has a nice piece on the coach who’ll almost certainly be running his own team in the next few years and become another branch of the Thad Matta coaching tree, assuming Boals would ever want to leave the good gig he’s got now.
5. A basketball Beanpot? Yes, please. For 58 years, Boston’s four major hockey schools — Boston U., Northeastern, Harvard, and Boston College — have taken part in the Beanpot, a tournament among themselves with games on the first two Mondays in February for city bragging rights. As Boston is a young town and one of the best sports cities in the country, you can easily assume how popular the venerated event is. They had a hoops version for 14 years that petered out in 1976, but with the interest of Philadelphia’s Big 5 growing ever further both inside and outside of Philly, and because other cities and states are pondering similar events (get it done, Chicago), a hoops Beanpot with Holy Cross and UMass also thrown in the mix might become a reality, according to the Boston Globe. The coaches seem to be all for it, if they can figure out where to fit it on the schedule. We’d like to go ahead and put in our credential request now…

The Lede. Hopefully everyone was over their Jimmer hangovers by the time the games started tonight. Judging by Twitter, and…well, pretty much every sports outlet in the nation, the transitive verb “to Jimmer” has entered the American sporting lexicon with some serious impact. We can’t remember when a college baller’s name has ever been used in this fashion; nobody ever said “You got Turnered/Walled,” or “He Morrisoned them,” or “They Hansbrough’d the heck out of that poor team.” And the only name we can think of that contains a reverent “The” at the beginning that’s in regular use today belongs to U2 guitarist The Edge, though — and credit to Seth Davis for starting the trend — “The Jimmer” is now commonplace usage in referring to just about everybody’s favorite player.

Darius Morris and Crew Start the Celebration (J.Gonzalez/Detroit FP)

But enough of that for now. We’ll have many chances to discuss him later. Tonight we saw three tough conference road wins, two of them in games involving bitter rivals. We have a couple of RTCs we have to weigh in on, and a pair of outstanding tweets from the Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s game. First, though, we start…with Sparty.

Your Watercooler Moment. On the halftime coverage of ESPN2’s St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga game, when asked about how dire the situation was for Michigan State this year after their loss to Michigan tonight, even the understated Dan Dakich hesitated for effect and said gravely, “Well…it’s pretty serious.”

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We’ve blathered on and on about this before, but year after year it never fails to amaze.  Anecdotally at least, it seems that the months of August and September every single year are marked with college basketball players filling up the police blotters.  Why can’t guys stick to getting ready for the upcoming hoops season rather than involving themselves in all sorts of other nonsense?  Our theory is that players get back to school and have nothing going on for the first time in quite a while.  Summer camp and international team obligations are over. Individual workouts won’t start for another month, and the formal start of practice a month after that.   The demands of classwork haven’t really kicked in yet.  The weather is still hot, and guys are looking to cut loose.

A Different Kind of Madness Every Fall

In other words, all of the pieces of the common aphorism that “idle hands are the devil’s playthings” are in place, and just as consistently as sundresses on the quad in August, players around the nation cannot seem to avoid the early fall tendency to put themselves in situations where trouble finds them.   We’re not being accusatory here — we fully allow and understand that players are often victims of false accusations and overzealous police and prosecutors as a result of their local celebrity — but that’s why they need to be careful to stay out of risky situations.  And yet, year after year, they don’t. 

The latest and greatest case comes from Michigan State.  You know, Tom Izzo’s superb program that has been to the last two Final Fours and is an odds-on favorite to reach a third next April.  According to a report released today by the Michigan Messenger, two high-profile (unnamed) MSU players were accused of a serious sexual assault in a dorm on the night of August 29-30.  The details of both the police report, much of which was corroborated by the alleged victim and one of the two players, paint a horrific picture. 

Once in the room, the three started playing basketball using a mini-hoop. When the victim missed a basket, one of the men told her she had to remove an article of clothing. The victim agreed and removed her t-shirt because she had a tank top on underneath.  At this point, the victim says, the players began to deliberately miss baskets until they were stripped “completely naked.” One of the men allegedly blocked the doorway to the room, while the other “cornered” the victim in the room.  “[The victim] explained to [detectives] that the body language of [the players] suggested she was not free to leave,” the report says. “[Redacted] was blocking any escape path to the exit of the dorm room. [The victim] stated that after [redacted] approached the door he turned the lights in the room off and the room went completely dark. At this point, the sexual assault began.  The victim told police the players penetrated her in various positions. The victim told detectives the players allegedly asked her “how does that feel?” and “how do you want it?” The victim says she told the players she didn’t want it and gave “other indicators she was not a willing participant.”  The victim told police that the players pinned her down, but at one point she freed her arms momentarily and struck one of the players in the face. The player was on top of her and in response to her hitting him, he allegedly said, “Don’t. Just relax. C’mon,” as he continued to assault her, the report says.

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Zach Hayes is a editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.  To see the entire group of 2010-11 Class Schedules, click here.

After dissecting a trio of Big 12 teams in prior weeks, more and more elite programs are releasing their 2010-11 schedules to the masses. Let’s continue with Kentucky, a squad that reloaded following the departure of an astounding five first round draft picks.

With so much turnover, Calipari has another tough coaching job on his hands

Team Outlook: A fan base as rabid and fanatical as Kentucky’s surely awaited this week’s announcement with tremendous anticipation. Big Blue Nation has expectations for their Wildcats that perennially surpass any other program in the nation. Their point guard and this April’s #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, John Wall, will be replaced by Brandon Knight, whose high school accolades and ranking matches those of his predecessors under John Calipari. If deemed eligible by the NCAA, Enes Kanter will fill the post presence left by the ultra-productive DeMarcus Cousins. Similarly to Kanter, Terrence Jones spurned Washington and headed to Kentucky, a 6’9 wing very capable of matching the offensive production provided by Eric Bledsoe a season ago. The key word for Kentucky and Calipari since he took the helm: replenish. And if Knight, Kanter and Jones are history next April, three more top-ten recruits will fill the void. It’s a tall task for Knight and Kanter to match the contributions of Wall and Cousins, two of the top three players in the sport last season. Still, with such talent abounding, a wide open SEC, and the true dribble-drive offense back into high gear, to expect a giant step back from Big Blue and underestimating the coaching prowess of Calipari would be a grave mistake.

Non-Conference Schedule Rank (ranked 1 thru 10, 10 being the most difficult): 7.5. A program with the visibility and significance of Kentucky should challenge themselves at every chance. Forced out of necessity more than choice to load up in November and December at Memphis, Calipari has utilized that same strategy in Lexington. The potential is there to face fellow powerhouses at least in terms of college basketball history: North Carolina, Michigan State, Louisville, Indiana, Notre Dame, Washington and Oklahoma, although these teams remain at varying degrees of competitiveness. Kentucky will surely attract an enormous contingent to Maui where they could face a top-ten team in the semifinals in Washington and a top-two team in the finals, Michigan State. North Carolina is still working its way back up to elite status following last year’s NIT berth, but the young Wildcats’ trip to the Dean Dome won’t be any sort of cakewalk. The same theory applies to Louisville on New Year’s Eve, the next chapter of one of the fiercest rivalries the sport knows. A matchup with possible NCAA squad Notre Dame should also prove competitive. Kentucky gets everyone’s best shot, and it’s no relief for Calipari that up to seven non-conference contests will be either on true road or neutral floors.

Cupcake City: Two notable cupcakes travel to Lexington when Mississippi Valley State and Coppin State make the trip for what should be 40-point blowouts, but other than that Calipari did a solid job limiting the scrubs. East Tennessee State returns their top three scorers from an NCAA Tournament team that was blown out in the first round by, you guessed it, Kentucky. I’m not saying the Wildcats are vulnerable to lose to the Buccaneers, but they will not be a total walkover. Winthrop rode a Big South Cinderella run to an NCAA bid and is on the slate. Boston University with John Holland and Jake O’Brien is halfway decent, while a Maui tune-up in Portland against the rebuilding Pilots will provide a raucous atmosphere. Last season, Kentucky did struggle a bit early in the campaign against Miami (OH), Stanford and Sam Houston State while Calipari determined roles and rotations for a plethora of new players. If the same holds true a year later, Portland and BU could be pesky opponents.

Toughest Early Season Test: It’s far from a guarantee that Kentucky downs Washington in the Maui semifinals. After all, the Huskies return the majority of their backcourt led by Isaiah Thomas, Venoy Overton and Abdul Gaddy with a frontcourt anchored by Matthew Bryan-Amaning and a talented newcomer in Terrence Ross. Plus, they should have plenty of motivation to knock Kentucky down a few pegs following the Kanter and Jones situations that have been rehashed continuously. If the Wildcats can survive Washington, and I have a sneaking suspicion they will, Michigan State awaits in the final if the Spartans can knock off Connecticut or Wichita State (unless they pull a Virginia against Chaminade). The Spartans return their entire Final Four squad with the exception of Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen. Containing Kalin Lucas is baptism by fire for green Brandon Knight, while wing Darius Miller may have the unenviable task of chasing around three-point bomber Durrell Summers. The Spartans will likely be ranked number two in the nation behind Duke at this point. Win or lose, the learning experience will certainly be valuable for the young Wildcats.

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