BGTD: Late Night Analysis

Posted by nvr1983 on February 5th, 2011

The evening and night games provided us with plenty of memorable moments and two of the best games so far this season.

  • A Classic That Nobody Saw. If two teams play an epic conference game and the nation can’t see it (except via RTC Live), did it really happen? Tonight Arizona and California played a ridiculous triple overtime game that most of the nation couldn’t see. If you’re wondering why most of the nation doesn’t respect the Pac-10, it’s because most of the nation can’t watch them play. Starting your games three hours late for East Coast fans doesn’t help, but if you didn’t have to go online trying to find an illegal stream of the game most college basketball fans would find a way to watch you. As for the actual game, it was a huge win for the Wildcats. Sure they were the better team, but if the past month has taught us anything it is about how hard it is to win on the road against a decent team especially when the Wildcats were missing their star player (Derrick Williams) for most of the game. All season everybody has been pointing to Washington as the team to beat in the Pac-10, but it may end up being the Wildcats who run away with the regular season title.
  • Big win for the Gators. I killed the Gators earlier this year for how they folded when Ohio State visited. It turns out that Ohio State might have been a bit better than I thought they were. Kentucky may not be the team that some people thought they could be, as they rely on too few players to do too much, but they were a worthy adversary as demonstrated by their ability to nearly comeback from a big deficit to win in Gainesville. Still, the Gators found a way to fight off the momentum that the Wildcats had late and won a big one at home. The Gators aren’t a top 10 team like some polls predicted they would be in the preseason, but they should be a threat to advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, which is something that Billy Donovan has not done since the back-to-back championship team in 2007.
  • UConn Shows Its Mettle. We’re not sure how much to put this on Seton Hall for blowing a lead at home, but any time you can come back from 14 points down in the second half against a decent conference opponent you have to congratulate the winning team. UConn still has issues (we will discuss a major one next), but for a young team they are starting to come together nicely. There are a lot of ways to praise the Huskies, but the most deserving is Jim Calhoun who has battled a lot of criticism (some of it may be deserved depending on your point of view), yet he may be turning in one of his finest coaching performances to date by turning a team that started the year as Kemba and a bunch of intramural players into a team that would be a tough out in March.
  • What’s wrong with Kemba? Speaking of the Huskies, we can’t be the only ones to notice the precipitous drop-off in Kemba Walker‘s play recently. After a scintillating performance in Maui where some were discussing Walker as a potential top 5-10 pick in the NBA Draft (ridiculous even at the time), Walker’s play has fallen dramatically. While he still hits his share of big shots in big moments, we can’t help but wonder if Kemba has hit some sort of mental wall. In his past six games, he is 34/107 from the field (31.8%) and 10/37 (27%) from beyond the arc. UConn is a team with a lot of potential (particularly next year if Kemba returns to Storrs for his senior season), but if they are to make a run deep into March Jim Calhoun will need the old Kemba Walker back to buoy the Huskies when they are in tight situations.
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Set Your Tivo: 02.01.11

Posted by Brian Otskey on February 1st, 2011

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

As we move into February, the games become more critical and the pressure increases. It’s getting towards crunch time now and tonight’s games feature a few teams trying to enhance their resumes. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#13 Purdue @ #16 Wisconsin – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

When you look at these two teams, it’s harder than you might think to differentiate between them. Both are led by 6’10 players who don’t play exclusively in the paint, both take great care of the basketball and both need a third scoring option among other things. Best of all, these squads are rated right next to each other in Ken Pomeroy’s latest ratings (UW #8, Purdue #9). Each team has won three of four games, but Wisconsin is coming off a loss to Penn State this past Saturday. The Badgers return home to the Kohl Center tonight where they are 147-11 under Bo Ryan.

Johnson Has No Time For POY Considerations -- He Has Higher Pursuits

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Checking in on… the SEC

Posted by Brian Goodman on January 18th, 2011

Jared Quillen is the RTC correspondent for the SEC.

A Look Back

Monday on the SEC Basketball Coaches Teleconference, Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury took some exception to the idea that there is a trend with the East playing much better than the West.  He mentioned that in his time at Mississippi State, his teams have gone 41-41 against the East and 10-8 in SEC conference tournament play.  Let me start by saying that anyone that can that quickly pull up those numbers probably has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder.  But now, let’s just take a look at the numbers.

Last year, the SEC West finished 39-57 against SEC East.  This year in head-to-head games, the West is 2-4 against the East.  A week ago, Auburn managed a mere six points in the first half against LSUAlabama, a team picked to finish third of six in the West, lost to St Peter’s early in the season.  The East currently has a 74.7% winning percentage with a 9.5 point scoring margin to the West’s 59.2% and 4.6 margin.

The East has quality wins against Florida State, Kansas State, Washington, Notre Dame, Louisville, Villanova, Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Marquette.  The West has beaten um, well, Auburn got a lucky one against Florida State.

Ed. Note: There has also been some notable player movement recently around the SEC: Former Mississippi State sophomore Twanny Beckham will try to find increased playing time at Kentucky and could be eligible as soon as next January (we’re not sure how transferring to Kentucky will net Beckham more time amongst a sea of stud freshmen next season than the 15.7 minutes per game he earned under Stansbury, but if it makes him happy, why not?). Beckham’s former teammate, maligned Bulldog Elgin Bailey, dismissed after last month’s infamous scuffle with Renardo Sidney, will hope to start fresh at Southeast Louisiana, and suspended Kentucky Wildcat Darnell Dodson is headed to Southern Mississippi. Lastly, Auburn will welcome forward Noel Johnson from Clemson. While none of these players are necessarily high-impact types, hopefully they will thrive for their new schools.

Power Rankings

  1. Kentucky (14-3, 2-1) – The Wildcats lost one last week to Georgia and responded by taking out their frustrations on SEC cellar dwellers Auburn and LSU.  The Cats beat Auburn 78-54 in a midweek contest in which Terrence Jones set the Kentucky single game freshman scoring record by coming off the bench and scoring 35 points.  That record of course was only 24 days old, having previously been set by Doron Lamb, who also came off the bench to score 32 against Winthrop.
  2. Georgia (13-3, 2-1) – After beating Kentucky at home last week, Georgia lost to Vanderbiltin a game that was close the whole way.  Going  5-21 from three makes it hard to win in the SEC East, and that really is the Achilles heel for the Bulldogs.  They are currently last in the SEC in three-point shooting at 31 percent.  The Dawgs followed that loss with a 98-76 thumping of Mississippi.  The poor point shooting will cost Georgia in close ones, but for now they’re winning, having gone 10-1 since losing two straight to Notre Dame and Temple.
  3. Florida (13-4, 2-1) – Both Mississippi and Tennessee gave Florida tougher games than they should have and then Florida lost to South Carolina.  Still, head coach Billy Donovan said on Monday that he feels his team is still getting better and playing better defense.  No worries though, they probably won’t need it this week against Auburn.
  4. Vanderbilt (12-4, 1-2) Vanderbilt has been disappointing of late, having dropped two of their last three to South Carolina and Tennessee with a win over Georgia sandwiched between.  I think this speaks to the competitiveness of the East.  Vanderbilt should make quick work of reeling Mississippi this week and then take on a surging St. Mary’s team that has won 10 straight.
  5. South Carolina (11-5, 2-1) The Gamecocks held Vanderbilt’s Festus Ezelito only seven points on two of seven shooting and fouled him out in overtime.  South Carolina got the win by holding the Commodores to only 39 percent shooting, but the problem is that the Cocks followed that up by laying an egg in Tuscaloosa, only scoring 47 points in a ten-point loss to Alabama.  The win against Florida in Gainesville is a good sign however.
  6. Arkansas (12-4, 2-1) A close win over Tennessee at home, a close loss to LSU away and a close win over Alabama at home.  A good week, but not enough to get overly optimistic about.  The Razorbacks have a tough week with games at dangerous South Carolina and still improving Florida.  Going 0-2 this week is not unlikely.  Going 1-1 would be good, 2-0 makes Arkansas the clear favorite to win the West.
  7. Tennessee (11-6, 1-2) I think a lot of people became very optimistic that this very talented, seriously under-performing team had turned a corner after beating Memphis 104-84 in Knoxville, but this is not your John Calipari’s Memphis team and it should be remembered that this game was just a shooting match where both teams shot better than 45 percent from the field.  Tennessee found losses to Arkansas and Florida and a close win over Vanderbilt.  This week, the Volunteers face Georgia and Connecticut on the road and could very well find themselves 0-2 on the week and 1-3 in SEC play.  Making the NCAA Tournament is looking tougher and tougher.
  8. Alabama (10-7, 2-1) Alabama looks to be getting its season back on track after an embarrassing early season by starting 2-0 in SEC play.  The Arkansas loss is nothing to be ashamed of – no one has won in Fayetteville this season.  This week, Alabama, the league leader in points allowed per game at 56.8, and Kentucky, the league leader in points scored per game at 79.9, face off in Tuscaloosa.
  9. Mississippi State (10-7, 2-1) I would like to say that Mississippi is playing much better now that Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost are finally on the court together, but the Bulldogs lost to Alabama to begin conference play and had to pull out a close one over in-state rival Mississippi before beating Auburn by 21 at home. But honestly, who hasn’t beaten Auburn by 20?
  10. Mississippi (12-6, 0-3) The Rebels need to find a cause because it’s getting ugly in Oxford.  Ole Miss was tabbed to finish second in the West and is now 0-3.  Not bloody likely at this point.  Three straight losses is bad for any team.  When you lose by 22 on your home court, the fans stop showing up.
  11. LSU (10-8, 2-1) The Tigers held Auburn to only six points in the first half.  Yeah, six. Then they beat Arkansas in a 56-53 snoozer.  At 2-0, things seemed to be looking up for LSU, but then the Tigers were humiliated 82-44 at Rupp Arena and everyone remembered that LSU lost to North Texas by 20 on their home court and is only 4-6 in their last 10.
  12. Auburn (7-10, 0-3) Well this is a familiar place.  The game against LSU was the low point of the season for the Tigers who are suffering through a tough season of injuries, unexpected departures and ineligible players.  A very tough start for coach Tony Barbee, but these are the cards he was dealt.  I wonder if he’s questioning that advice that long-time friend and former boss John Calipari gave him encouraging him to take the Auburn job.  Given some time, I think he will do well.  One quick note, Frankie Sullivan came back from injury and Auburn won four straight including a win over Florida State, the team that just dealt the evil Blue Devils their first loss.  He goes down again and Auburn loses three straight.

A Look Ahead

Tennessee at Georgia and Tennessee at Connecticut are intriguing games to me because of the confusing story that is the Tennessee Volunteers.  I want to see if this team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone, mostly the latter of late, can pull out a couple of good wins to follow up their come-back win over Vanderbilt.

Kentucky at Alabama – I think at this point with Kentucky as the only team in the top 25 and playing very well of late, a loss to Georgia notwithstanding, you have to mark all Kentucky games on your calendar, particularly in this match-up where Alabama’s league leading point per game defense will be tested by the highest scoring offense in the league.

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Morning Five: 01.13.11 Edition

Posted by jstevrtc on January 13th, 2011

  1. When we list links in the Morning Five every day, we always hope you’ll click on them. Even though we don’t expect our readers to check out every single link in a given M5, we only put things up here that we think you’d want to read or that will provide the original source from a piece of information that we think you should have. We will not attempt to describe the story that Yahoo!’s Jason King published yesterday about the tragic bond shared between Billy Donovan and two of his former assistants, Alabama head coach Anthony Grant and Arkansas head coach John Pelphrey. It is something you simply have to experience for yourself. The RTC crew are not the types to fall victim to that old cliche that a sad story makes for extraordinary writing, or an automatically “better” or elevated story; so take our word for it — you need to read this. Allow us to also say that even though we finished reading the story with red eyes and our collective jaw somewhere around belt-buckle level, we are actually comforted by the fact that men like this — and their families — are in the business of influencing and teaching 18-22 year olds; not because they and their wives and children have experienced tragedy, but because of how they’ve rebounded from it. Now, before you even move on to link #2 in today’s M5, click the above story and read it. Then you can come back here and rejoin our little world.
  2. There’s one thing Bob Huggins won’t have to worry about as he and his West Virginia squad trudge through the Big East schedule toward the post-season: freshman mistakes. Because he, um…has no frosh left. Freshman forward Kevin Noreen had surgery on Wednesday to repair a ruptured prepatellar bursal sac on his right knee and will miss the rest of the season. He was the last active Mountaineer freshman on the team out of the four that Huggins brought in this year.
  3. Ever since Washington’s Abdul Gaddy tore his ACL, we’ve been waiting to see who would step up and lead the Huskies as both a vocal leader and a distributor of the ball. Jeff Goodman makes a compelling case that Isaiah Thomas has already taken on the task of filling that role. We were inspired to look up a couple of stats Goodman alludes to in the article that back up what he’s saying: last year, Thomas’ assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.3 to 1 and he sported an assist rate of 28.5 (tied for 438th nationally). This season, his A/TO ratio is up to 2.1 and his assist rate of 56.1 is tops in the Pac-10 and 56th nationally.
  4. Word surfaced yesterday afternoon that former California freshman Gary Franklin will resurface at Baylor and will be eligible for play in the second semester next year. So, how’s Cal doing sans Franklin? Just fine, writes California Golden Blogs, specifically citing the 1.07 and 1.06 points per possession the Bears averaged against their last two opponents (Arizona State and Arizona, respectively), a level they had only achieved four times in the previous 13 games. Franklin will also enjoy being at Baylor more; you’ve got to shoot to be a scorer, and Franklin should run wild, given all those shots LaceDarius Dunn will leave behind in Waco next year.
  5. Hey, check out those Colorado schools! Colorado is 13-4 and 2-0 in the Big 12. Colorado State is 11-5. Air Force is 10-5.  Denver is, er, 8-9…but 4-0 in the Sun Belt! The Denver Post’s Chris Dempsey shows us that, when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament, hope is alive in the Centennial State and with good reason. We hope at least one of them gets there. Of those schools, Air Force was the last to go — five years ago. And Denver has never tasted the sweet, healing waters of The Dance.
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Set Your Tivo: 01.11.11

Posted by Brian Otskey on January 11th, 2011

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Three key conference clashes from different leagues take place tonight with two of the home clubs desperately needing a win. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#17 Wisconsin @ #20 Michigan State – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

Leuer Made the Midseason Top 30 Wooden Award List, Yet Many Fans Couldn't Pick Him Out of a Lineup.

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ATB: Coach K Catches Dean — Carolina Fans Look Away in Horror

Posted by rtmsf on December 21st, 2010

The Lede.  Happy Holidays, everyone.  As we dive headfirst into Christmas week spent with our loved ones and hope that you’re doing the same wherever you live, the college basketball landscape looks a little peaked.  After an unimpressive exams period of games last week, the bulk of this week’s games occur over the next three nights, and after that we’ll hit a four-day interregnum where most coaches allow players to take short breaks to enjoy the holiday season with their families.  Tonight involved a very light slate of games but things will progressively improve until Wednesday when we’ll have a solid mid-week lineup to consider.

The Two Go Way Back, But K is the Legend Now (photo credit: RNO)

Your Watercooler MomentCoach K Ties Dean at 879.  With tonight’s blowout victory over Elon, Mike Krzyzewski tied his longtime rival eight miles away in Chapel Hill, Dean Smith, for the #2 spot on the all-time wins list in Division I basketball.  There have been a lot of these lately; in fact, Coach K just tied and passed Kentucky legend Adolph Rupp a couple of short weeks ago, but if you ask anyone over thirty who has lived on Tobacco Road, you know that this one (and the next one where K will pass Smith) means a little more.  Prior to Krzyzewski’s arrival at Duke in the early 80s, the Blue Devil program was a nice little place for basketball.  They’d been to some Final Fours and had some very good teams over the years, but they were not considered an elite program anywhere near Smith’s Tar Heel program or even NC State a few more miles down I-40.  K set his sights directly on matching and surpassing the talent level and existing success of the program in Chapel Hill, and within a little more than a decade he’d already been to a slew of Final Fours and won back-to-back titles (Smith matched K in 1993).  Nobody in his right mind could have ever imagined that the midwesterner with the funny name at the private school in Durham could ever overtake the folksy Kansan at the public school in Chapel Hill in terms of  success and stature, but Duke’s win over Elon tonight is just one more huge prong in an argument that’s long been settled: when it comes to K & Dean, Krzyzewski is the better coach, and history will quite possibly judge him as the second-best of all-time behind John Wooden.  Sorry, Heels fans, but it’s true.

Upset of the NightJacksonville 71, Florida 68 (OT).  A strange game scheduled at a strange time (1 PM) on a Monday afternoon after students have gone home, but a somewhat predictable result.  Can we just go ahead and put Florida in as one of our first-round victims in the NCAA Tourney this coming March?  This Gator team is a carbon copy of all the other underachievers that Billy Donovan has had in his decade-plus in Gainesville.  Just switch out Kenny Boynton for Anthony Roberson and Chandler Parsons for Matt Bonner, and you’ll see what we’re talking about.  Donovan has only had one class in his entire tenure  at Florida who actually defended their tails off and had a legitimate post presence inside — the ballyhooed Oh-Four class that happened to win a couple of national titles in 2006 and 2007.  Almost every other team has relied way too much on spotty guard play with questionable decision-making skills.  You can go all the way back to White Chocolate in the late 90s if you want, but the style of players are the same.  Bottom line for the 2010-11 Gators: Erving Walker and Boynton shoot way too much considering how inefficient they are with the ball, and there’s no single big man among Parsons, Alex Tyus or Vernon Macklin who can guarantee you points inside when you need them.  Sorry, Gator fans, but we’ve seen this Florida team too many times before.

Tonight’s Quick Hits

  • John Shurna.  It’s not often that someone shoots 60% in a game (9-15) and his conversion rate declines, but that’s what happened with Northwestern star John Shurna tonight as he came in dropping a 64.3% and ended the night at 63.6%.  With another impressive 26/6/4 stls evening, the guy is just on fire right now.  His season averages of 25/5/3 APG/3 SPG are all-american caliber numbers, and the only criticism that can be levied against the 6’8 forward is that he’s doing it against inferior competition (NW’s schedule has been delectably creampuffish so far).  Tomorrow night’s game against the long, athletic players on St. John’s will be somewhat instructive with how he responds.
  • Kemba Watch.  Kemba, you’re killing us.  For the third straight game, the dynamic Husky point guard was well under the 30 PPG average he carried through the first month of the season.  His 20/5/4 assts/3 stls was plenty enough for his team to beat Coppin State convincingly, but his season scoring average is now down to 27.2 PPG and we’re starting to fret.  He needs to explode for forty against Harvard on Wednesday because we don’t think that next Monday’s game against Pittsburgh will be a great scoring game for him (in two games against the Panthers, he’s averaged only 10 PPG).

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Set Your Tivo: Weekend Review

Posted by Brian Otskey on December 17th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

This is the last major weekend before conference play begins in earnest and it features a bunch of solid games but none that really jump out at you as must-watch. All in all it’s a pretty good set of games. Don’t forget about the two games in the Bahamas on Saturday (Richmond vs. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State). They’re not on television but are meaningful, especially the latter. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

Texas vs. North Carolina (Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC) – 4 pm Saturday on CBS (****)

A Smaller Venue in Greenboro, But Still a Great Game

You may never see a game between two unranked teams have this much talent on the court as this one. Yes the Longhorns are ranked in both the AP and Coaches polls but they aren’t in our own top 25. Texas has played better this year on the strength of defense and better chemistry though a loss at USC was cause for concern. Still, Texas has a ton of talent and has the ability to turn this season into a successful one. Leading scorer Jordan Hamilton still has a so-so shot selection but he’s connecting on 41% of his treys, a positive sign for Rick Barnes. Freshman Tristan Thompson has also been a plus for the Longhorns, giving them an athletic post presence who can score and defend very well. When you look at this matchup with North Carolina however, Tyler Zeller (16/8) is going to have a significant height advantage inside. You may see Barnes turn to Matt Hill for a bigger defensive presence in the paint in an attempt to control UNC’s big man. Each team has had some issues at the point guard, especially North Carolina. The Tar Heels have seen better play from Larry Drew II (2:1 A/T ratio) but questions remain with the team averaging 15 turnovers per contest. With a talented freshman in waiting, Roy Williams has to make a decision on who should see the majority of time at the point as they head into ACC play. For Texas, Dogus Balbay has seen his minutes drop in favor of freshman Cory Joseph, a move that’s understandable from an offensive standpoint but questionable in the eyes of some who see the experienced Balbay as a team leader and an effective distributor, not to mention an outstanding defender. Texas is not a particularly great shooting team as a whole so the transition to Joseph could be more about transition opportunities and easy buckets plus Joseph is a much better shooter. As for North Carolina, getting Harrison Barnes going could be the key between middling outside the top 25 and being a consistently ranked team and #2 in the ACC. Barnes is still in a slump, shooting just 33% overall over his last five games including a dismal 5-24 (21%) from three. He’s still averaging double figures and has done a nice job rebounding but the Tar Heels need more out of their star freshman. To become a really good team, UNC needs John Henson to become a consistent third option. He rebounds very well but he’s in double figures one night and single digits the next. He may have a hard time with Thompson inside but Henson is able to stretch his game out a bit and that may open things up inside for the Tar Heels. This figures to be another close game, far different from last year’s Texas blowout. This time North Carolina has the crowd to their advantage and may come out on top by a few points. It’s a huge game for UNC, their last non-conference opportunity for a quality win. Texas still has games with Michigan State and Connecticut but this is a big game for them too in a quasi-road environment. We wouldn’t be surprised either way but a slight edge has to go to UNC in this game.

#5 Kansas State vs. Florida (BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise, FL) – 3:30 pm Saturday on FSN (****)

This is the first of two key games for Kansas State, the second coming on Tuesday against UNLV. Winning one or both will certainly help the Wildcats grab a better seed in the NCAA Tournament come March. Against Florida, K-State will have to contend with the Gators’ trapping pressure defense, something that could be a problem given their propensity for turnovers and some point guard issues. Jacob Pullen has been the main distributor at four assists per game but he turns it over more than three times per game, the most on a team that averages 16 turnovers as a unit. Florida’s back court pressure could cause a lot of problems for Kansas State and plenty of extra possessions for the Gators. Pullen doing a lot of ball handling could also be a factor in his overall struggle relative to last season. He’s never been a great shooter, 40% overall from the floor for his career, but his three point shooting is down over six percent to 33% this season. It is true that other teams are trying to lock him up like Duke did, but Pullen has to work through this and become a better player in order to lift Kansas State to the next level where they can compete for a national championship. Frank Martin may go with Will Spradling at the point in order to take some pressure off Pullen. As for Florida, expect them to fire up three’s as usual (17 per game) even though the Gators shoot just 32% as a team. Billy Donovan loves the trey, yet another Rick Pitino protégé who sticks to the system no matter the personnel he has. Erving Walker has improved dramatically but Kenny Boynton still can’t find the range for Florida. Walker shoots 20% better than Boynton from deep yet Boynton has 15 more attempts this season. Kansas State should look to isolate Walker and aggressively defend him, keeping the ball out of his hands. Pullen and Rodney McGruder may have to match Walker’s deep shooting but Martin will be content with Boynton chucking shots up and hitting once in a while, requiring Kansas State to clear the boards well. Both teams rank high in offensive rebounding percentage so the Wildcats must put an emphasis on keeping Florida off the glass as that will lead to easy Gator put backs. Florida is #15 in two point percentage, largely a result of offensive rebounds and the play of Vernon Macklin inside. Macklin against Curtis Kelly will be a key matchup to watch in the low post as each player finishes well and can rebound the basketball effectively. Kansas State should not bank on outscoring Florida from the line considering their awful free throw shooting (55%) and Florida’s ability to keep opponents off the line, second in the nation in defensive free throw rate. Only three players on K-State’s roster shoot over 70% from the line and Pullen is the only one of those three who gets there often. Martin’s depth will take a hit if Wally Judge is out, dealing with personal issues, but we don’t think that will have a major impact on the game. Kansas State is still a very deep team, able to go eight or nine deep if necessary. This should be a terrific game that may come down to the very end. Ken Pomeroy predicts a two-point Florida win so this game is essentially a toss-up. We see it that way as well.

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ATB: Big Ten Wins Second Challenge in a Row

Posted by rtmsf on December 2nd, 2010

The LedeBig Ten Goes Back-to-Back.  Maybe the plan is for the Big Ten to win eight more ACC/Big Ten Challenges in a row so as to tie up the all-time record (now 10-2 ACC), but thanks to a strong Tuesday performance where the league went 4-1 against the ACC, the Big Ten did just enough tonight (2-3) to once again crow about basketball dominance for the next 363 days.  Well, sorta.  As much as we enjoy the concept behind these conference challenges (and this one is clearly the best one), they don’t truly mean much in terms of assessing the relative strength of the conferences.  As we mentioned last night, the Big Ten is much stronger than the ACC in its top half, and that’s the half that truly matters when discussing this game we call college basketball.  We’re not sure if anyone outside of Iowa City or Winston-Salem cares much if Wake Forest is marginally better than Iowa, but most of the nation cares whether Duke is better than Michigan State  (they are) or Virginia Tech is better than Purdue (they’re not).  If we were ranking the top ten teams by combining both leagues, it would go something like this:  1) Duke; 2) Ohio State; 3) Michigan State; 4) Illinois; 5) Minnesota; 6) Purdue; 7) Wisconsin; 8) Virginia Tech; 9) Northwestern; 10) Maryland/FSU (?).  At the level where the checks are signed, the Big Ten is by far the better league and we’ll stand by that assertion throughout the season.

Irving's Skills Belie His Youth (credit: Herald-Sun)

Your Watercooler Moment Just How Good Is Kyrie Irving? A common refrain during and after tonight’s Duke victory over Michigan State, 84-79, was that Blue Devil point guard Kyrie Irving was not only the best player on the floor — with 31 pts, 6 rebs, 4 assts, 2 stls and 2 blks — but he might just be the freshman who should have been chosen as preseason first-team All-American and NPOY candidate (instead of the popular pick eight miles down the road, Harrison Barnes).  It’s hard to argue with that assessment right now.  In two games matched up against elite senior All-America point guards (Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas), Irving has out-everythinged his more experienced peers.  During parts of the game tonight, he simply made his defenders look like they were standing in quicksand as he hesitated and stepped-through the lane for numerous clever finishes.  When the MSU defense laid off of him, he calmly sank a couple of threes.  When they double-teamed him, he consistently made the right pass to the open man.  And this isn’t just one game, either.  On the season, he’s averaging 17/4/6 assts , carries a 2.5:1 assist/turnover ratio and he’s in the spectacular 50/40/80+ zone as a matter of shooting percentages (52%/44%/88%).  Oh, and he appears to be the best player on the #1 team in America — there’s that too.  It’s early, and there’s a point guard named Kemba and a couple of other freshmen named Terrence and Jared who we think are playing just as well or better as the Dookie getting all the love tonight, but without question Irving makes Duke a fantastically dangerous team in ways that they never were with Jon Scheyer running things last year.  If the Devils can figure out the big man situation and defend a little better (allowing 49%/53% against MSU is a little disconcerting), they have a chance to become an epic team (but not good enough to run the table, see below).

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Set Your Tivo: 11.28.10

Posted by Brian Otskey on November 28th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Sunday is the last day of all hoops, all the time. We have some good championship games and a great in-state battle later this evening but it’s back to reality tomorrow. Rankings as per the latest RTC Top 25. All times eastern.

Old Spice Classic Fifth Place Game: #24 Temple vs. Texas A&M – 11 am on ESPNU (***)

Neither team has to be happy with their position in this tournament. Texas A&M probably feels they should have beaten Boston College in the first round and would have been playing for third at worst. On the other hand Temple, the co-favorite along with Wisconsin in this field, has been very disappointing. The Owls suffered an inexplicable loss to rebuilding California on Thursday but did get by Georgia in their second outing. The story for Temple has been the struggle of point guard Juan Fernandez. He is shooting just 5-23 (22%) overall and 1-12 (8%) from three in this tournament. Moreover, Fernandez is averaging only 2.5 assists here and has a 0.71 assist to turnover ratio for these two games. This is a guy who shot 43% last year and had an A/T ratio of 1.85. Fernandez is such a play maker that when you lock him up, Temple goes south. The action in this game centers on the forwards, Lavoy Allen for Temple and Khris Middleton for A&M. Middleton has averaged 19.5 in two games at Disney while Allen is a steady low block presence for the Owls. The Aggies average more rebounds than Temple but Fran Dunphy’s team does a nice job on the defensive glass. Texas A&M is #2 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage so this area will be one to watch. It’s an early start so expect a little rust offensively in a close game that should be in the 50’s or low 60’s.

Old Spice Classic Championship Game: #25 Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame – 7 pm on ESPN2 (***)

This is your classic battle between two teams that play almost completely opposite styles. Wisconsin emphasizes discipline and efficiency on offense and plays strong defense under Bo Ryan. Notre Dame likes to shoot the three and capitalize offensively, not paying as much attention to the other facet of basketball. Both teams rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency but the real contrast is on defense. The Irish, #87 in defensive efficiency, gave up 155 points in the two games prior to a strong defensive effort against California in the semifinals, holding the Bears to an astounding five first half points and 44 for the game. Offense has been at a premium in this tournament and you’d figure that trend will continue in this game today. Jon Leuer has been rock solid for Wisconsin however, leading the Badgers at 18 PPG on the season and 17 per game at the Old Spice. Wisconsin did break out of their mini-shooting slump against BC, hitting 26-57 (46%) from the floor. Neither team forces many turnovers and both take good care of the ball so this figures to be a clean, well played game. Notre Dame could use a good rebounding effort from Tyrone Nash and Tim Abromaitis, while freshman point guard Eric Atkins has to hold his own against Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor. This is going to be a good game and should be close throughout. Wisconsin has to be favored though and should take home the Old Spice title.

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The Week That Was: November 19-26

Posted by jstevrtc on November 27th, 2010

David Ely is an RTC Contributor

Introduction

TWTW hopes everyone out there had a great Thanksgiving, gorging on turkey, stuffing and football. I truly hope you got enough football because this is a football free zone. No news about Tom Brady’s hair, Brett Favre’s retirement plans or Vince Young’s texting habits. There’s way too much hoops to discuss.

The week leading up to Thanksgiving is without a doubt one of my favorite weeks of the college basketball season. The Maui Invitational, Preseason NIT, the O’Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic…need I say more? All of the preseason tournaments serve up must-see non-conference matchups, the likes of which you won’t see again until March. #10 Kentucky and #15 Washington staged a fine duel on Tuesday night in Maui. #1 Duke vs. #5 Kansas State might have disappointed for just over a half, but you still learned plenty about each squad.

Walker's Performance In Maui Still Has Hoopheads Buzzing

More than prime-time matchups, though, I love these tournaments because every year someone makes the leap from relative hoops obscurity to household name status. This year that player is Connecticut’s Kemba Walker. Now, Walker wasn’t exactly an unknown commodity prior to this week, but no one ever viewed him as the most formidable offensive player in the nation. 90 points in three nationally televised games and back-to-back wins over top-10 squads tends to raise your profile, though.

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