Upset of the Night.  VMI 111, Kentucky 103.  Well, for the second consecutive year we’ve not even made it to Thanksgiving before we have a nominee for biggest upset of the year because a small college from the South went into Rupp Arena and beat the Kentucky Wildcats on their home court.  Last year it was Gardner-Webb; this year it was VMI, who was picked seventh in the Big South and last defeated a BCS team four seasons ago.  The Cats aren’t ranked this season, but they arguably have more raw talent than they had a year ago.  Most pundits have UK finishing second or third in the SEC East and making its 17th straight NCAA Tournament in 2009.  They still might, but watching tonight’s game showed some serious issues with turnovers (too many players leaving their feet to pass the ball), defensive rotation (or a complete lack thereof), shot selection (how does all-american Patrick Patterson only get four shots in essentially a Y-ball game?), and myriad mental lapses.  Does Billy Gillispie really understand where he’s coaching these days?  These kinds of losses are barely tolerable at Texas A&M; at Kentucky, people start putting moving signs in your yard after close wins.  He somewhat redeemed himself last season after the G-W debacle by going 12-4 in the SEC and making the NCAA Tournament (1st round loss to Marquette), but big losses to rivals UNC, Louisville and Indiana weren’t forgotten.  A VMI loss to start this season followed by a trip to Chapel Hill next week and some other Ls to follow will not help his cause.  UK fans care about every game – not just the SEC and March Madness.  As Truzenzuzex over at A Sea of Blue put it, Billy Clyde tonight represented an “epic failure of coaching.”  As for the game itself, what can you say other than it was a classic run & gun shootout.  UK shot 54% from the field, mostly from dunk range, but other than Jodie Meeks, couldn’t hit a three regardless of whether anyone was defending it or not (3-16, 19%).  Meeks led the Cats with 39 pts, and Perry Stevenson had 20/14, but VMI’s attack was more balanced, with all five starters plus one bench player reaching double figures.  Travis Holmes led with 30/7 on 10-13 shooting, but the key difference in the statistical battle were the fourteen threes that VMI knocked down.  Frankly, UK’s defense simply wasn’t closing out on many of these wide-open shots.  All that said, when UK went on a 17-0 run in the late second half to cut the lead to 90-89 after having been down 23 earlier in the half, we figured that VMI was finished.  Several more bad possessions by the UK offense and lackluster defense on the other side ensured that VMI still had life, and the Keydets were able to hang on and pull off the monumental upset.  This Gillispie situation will remain interesting throughout the season. 

Other Games of Reasonable Interest. 

• Pittsburgh 86, Fairleigh Dickinson 63.  The return of Levance Fields is worth a special mention.  Pitt is 52-12 when their oft-injured point guard starts, and a mere slightly-better-than-.500 team when he’s on the bench.  Tonight he showed no ill effects from his twice-broken left foot, contributing 15/8 assts in the blowout victory.  Dejuan Blair had his typical beastly 17/13 inside.  Pitt will have an interesting next game against Miami (OH) on Monday.     
• UConn 81, W. Carolina 55.  Hasheem Thabeet needs to do more of this (23/17/3 blks).  AJ Price was ejected for a sucker punch flagrant foul – nice to see thing haven’t changed much in Storrs.  He made his triumphant return with a 0 pt, 5 turnover night.  Jerome Dyson had 23, and newcomer Kemba Walker contributed 8/5 in his first collegiate game. 

Small Piece of News.  The injury bug continues at Carolina, as it now appears Bobby Frasor will not play in UNC’s opener against Penn tomorrow because he’s been nursing a sprained left ankle.  You don’t think Frasor’s and Hansbrough’s injuries may karmically have anything to do with this, do ya?  Nah.  Didn’t think so. 

Rundown. 

• UT-Martin 121, Maryville 56.  Lester Hudson’s line: 27/7/7 asst/8 stls.  Sick.
• Temple 79, ETSU 65.  Dionte Christmas with 26/11 in first round of Charleston Classic.  Next up is host Charleston.
• Florida 80, Toledo 58.  Unrepentent gambler Nick Calathes with 16/4/7 assts.
• Stanford 75, Yale 67.  Johnny Dawkins gets his coaching career off to a solid start with a road win.  Lawrence Hill’s 22/11 helped. 
• Howard 47, Oregon St. 45.  The same cannot be said for Craig Robinson at OSU. 
• Wake Forest 94, NC Central 48.  Al Farouq Aminu had 21/10 in his debut with the Deacs; James Johnson with 19/10/5 asst.  This Deacon team could be very interesting this year.
• Maryland 81, Bucknell 52.  Gary Williams needed a strong opening win to silence his critics some.
• Oklahoma St. 76, UT-San Antonio 57.  James Anderson with only 10/7 as the Cowboys rolled anyway.  Byron Eaton led with 27 pts.
• Oklahoma 83, American 54.  Forgive us, Blake Griffin.  Despite going 5-14 from the line, he was otherwise brilliant (24/18) in a game we thought American had a chance to win.  His reverse dropstep jam was NASTY. 
• Villanova 78, Albany 60.  Nova put six players in double figures with none of them having over 13 pts. 
• Texas 68, Stetson 38.  AJ Abrams hit five threes as the Longhorns held Stetson to a miserable 26% shooting night.
• Arkansas 91, SE Louisiana 87 (OT).  Very close to a dreadful opening night for the SEC, as Arkansas rallied from a late 9-pt deficit to send the game to OT, which the Hawgs won behind Michael Washington’s 30 pts in the extra period.
• Marquette 95, Houston Baptist 64.  Wesley Matthews had a huge night (28/5/8 asst/5 stls) as Marquette rolled. 
• Purdue 82, Detroit 50.  Hummell and Moore combined for 31/15 in a balanced effort.
• St. Mary’s 86, Seattle Pacific 55.  Patty Mills with 15/3/8 asst/4 stls. 
• Arizona St. 80, Mississippi Valley St. 54.  James Harden dropped 24/10 assts in Sendek’s first opening win at ASU.
• Davidson 107, Guilford 83.  Steph Curry with 29/3/10 asst/9 stls.  Nine steals???  Ridiculous. 

On Tap Saturday (all times EST):

• Florida vs. Bradley (ESPNU) – 2pm (CBE Classic)
• St. Joseph’s @ Holy Cross – 4pm
• Wisconsin v. Long Beach St. – 4pm
• North Carolina (-30.5) v. Penn (FSN South) – 4pm
• South Carolina v. Winthrop (ESPN FC & 360) – 4:30pm
• Duke v. Rhode Island (ESPNU) – 4:30pm
• UNLV (-11) v. San Diego (The Mtn.) – 5:30pm
• Michigan St. v. Idaho – 6pm
• Cincinnati v. South Dakota (ESPN FC & 360) – 6pm
• Charlotte v. Old Dominion – 6pm
• Syracuse v. Le Moyne (ESPNU) – 6:30pm
• Tennessee (-18) v. Chattanooga (SportSouth) – 7pm
• Notre Dame v. USC-Upstate – 7:30pm
• Drake (-6.5) v. Butler – 8pm
• Memphis (-19.5) v. Fairfield – 8pm
• Kansas v. UMKC (ESPNU) – 8:30pm (CBE Classic)
• USC (-19) v. UC Irvine – 10pm

Ahh… Florida.  The sunshine, the beautiful women, South Beach, the Redneck Riviera, Katherine Harris’ rack, hanging chads and Tony Montana, not to mention the gargantuan cockroaches palmetto bugs running around everywhere.  You gotta love this state.  It also appears to be a burgeoning mecca for collegiate ballplayers who like to taste the sweet sensations that only a matched A/K on the river can provide.  Yes, Gainesville is the new Monte Carlo.  Don’t believe us?  Just ask Florida guard Nick Calathes.  From Yahoo:

Florida guard Nick Calathes ran up about $600 in debt playing poker online but did not bet on sporting events, which would have violated NCAA rules, according to a person close to the program.  The person, speaking on condition of anonymity because of student confidentiality concerns, said the athletic department questioned Calathes and other Florida basketball players but found no evidence of wrongdoing.  “We became aware of certain allegations over the weekend and immediately looked into it,” athletic director Jeremy Foley said in a statement. “We reviewed everything very thoroughly and are satisfied with our results. We have no eligibility issues and are very comfortable that this issue is resolved based on our review.”

Calathes Talking to His Girlfriend?

Hmmmmmmmmm………………….

Just a few questions, your honor.  1) how did Calathes run up the $600 debt – was it on his personal credit card?  his parents?  a roommate?  2)  irrespective of that, how did these allegations come to light?  who dropped dime on his activities and why?  3) and how can we be certain that Calathes never bet on sports of any kind?  Inquiring minds want to know. 

Of course, like Reggie Bush, OJ Mayo and countless other real scandals, we wouldn’t expect the NCAA to so much as ask any questions about this matter, much less investigate it.  Florida is one of the biggest cash cows in Myles Brand’s stable, after all. 

We do have one final question, though.  Has this guy been spotted running around Gainesville lately?  And since when did he grow from 5’9 to 6’3???

A question that’s befuddled us for a long time now has been just how accurate are all these preseason polls that every media entity puts out each year are.  Remember last season – all four NCAA #1 seeds made it to the Final Four, but what was equally interesting to us was that those same four teams – Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and UNC – were also the top four ranked teams (in a different order) in both the Preseason AP and ESPN Coaches polls.  With an n=1, we know that the 2007-08 polls were extremely accurate in predicting last year’s F4 teams, but that only tells us part of the story – what we really want to know is how accurate are preseason polls in general?

To try to answer this question, we had to make some concessions.  We believe that, generally speaking, most preseason polls are largely the same, whether AP, ESPN/Coaches, CNNSI, etc.  Take for example, the blogpoll that came out this week.  The top twenty teams that the bloggers chose were mostly consensus picks – no team was left off of more than one ballot, and a total of only thirty-six teams received at least one vote.  That shows a relatively high consistency of thought – groupthink, if you will – about who the best teams in the country will be this season.  So we feel that we can derive some strong basic principles (and save a boatload of time) by examining only one of the major preseason polls – the ESPN/Coaches Poll – because it is the sole major poll that does a postseason version (after the NCAAs) to enable a fair comparison. 

We looked at the last five years where we could find the available pre- and postseason polls (the 2005 postseason poll is incorrect on both the ESPN and USA Today websites), and made some simple comparisons.  Our findings are below the table. 

Findings.

• In a given year, there are between 50-60 teams receiving votes from the preseason pollsters.  This tightens up to approximately 40 teams receiving votes in the postseason poll. 
• So how does a team receiving preseason votes equate to the postseason?  Ehhh, not terrible, but not great either.  Over the last six seasons (excl. 2005), if a team received votes in the preseason poll, there was a slightly better than half (54%) chance that it would also get votes in the postseason poll.  That alone doesn’t tell us a whole lot, though.  What if your team was in the preseason Top 25?  Those teams receive votes in the final poll approximately three-quarters (76%) of the time, which at minimum, means that the takeaway is that a preseason team receiving votes will usually make the NCAA Tournament. 
• Looking at the distribution of the final postseason polls can tell us a little bit about how accurate preseason pollsters are at predicting how good a team will be.  There appears to be a much stronger tendency to overlook teams that turn out later to be good rather than to overrate teams that turn out to not as good as pollsters thought.  Over half of the teams in a given year (~23) in the final postseason poll will have moved up >5 spots in the rankings from their initial selection; but only a handful of teams (~7) will have moved down by >5 spots from the preseason.  Another ~12 teams won’t move much from its initial standing.  This is strong evidence that pollsters generally have an accurate sense of the abilities of about 30% of teams in a given year, but they’re far more likely to underrate teams (usually by not ranking them at all) than to overrate teams (by a 3:1 ratio). 
• Some of the more notable examples of the pollsters being right on the money were in 2004, when they rated UConn/Duke as #1/#2, which is exactly where they ended the season.  Florida rated as preseason #1 in 2007 and Kansas as preseason #2 in 2003 were some other clear winners. 
• The swing-and-a-misses where the pollsters vastly overrated a team were Indiana in 2008 (#9 to #33), Duke in 2007 (#11 to #38), and Michigan St. in both 2006 (#5 to #34) and 2005 (#3 to #41).   
• The biggest misses where pollsters underrated a team was most obvious in 2003 and 2007, when preseason #31 Syracuse and #39 Florida, respectively, vaulted all the way to #1 by season’s end, and in 2004 when preseason unranked Georgia Tech made it to the F4 and #3 at the end of the year.  The only other preseason unranked team to have made the F4 in the last six years was George Mason in 2006. 

What does this mean for the 2008-09 season?  Well, if your team was ranked in the Top 25, you’re more than likely going to make the NCAA Tournament.  And if you’re already highly ranked, you should feel relatively secure in your position at or near the top – most teams simply don’t have huge drops in rankings from beginning to end of the season.  The good news is that if your team was lower ranked or not ranked at all, but you feel like they’re extremely underrated, history shows that an awful lot of teams move significantly up the rankings as the season goes along.  We’ll leave the guesswork as to who those teams might be to the rest of you guys. 

Well, if we can get our ESPN Full Court package to work tonight, we might actually get to watch some games…  don’t hold your breath on Comcast actually coming through at the casa de RTC, though… 

• Luke Winn provides his breakdown of the top 10 preseason tourneys.  Goodman gives his two cents on the preseason tourneys here, his top 40 games to watch, and 65 issues facing the new season.
• This is a really cool article surveying over 300 D1 schools on various factors – offensive and defensive ideologies, player and coaching pedigrees, budgets, etc.
• Memo to new Arizona (interim) coach Russ Pennell – hiring the legendary coach’s grandson as an assistant will not get you the permanent gig.
• Just in time for the season, a civil lawsuit was dismissed against Kansas’ Sherron Collins deriving from the accusation that he had groped a woman in an elevator in May 2007.
• In case you missed it – SI’s preseason top 20.  What’s with those lame regional covers?  And here are Wahl, Winn and Seth Davis’ justifications for their selections.
• Gary Parrish also takes a shot at projecting the NCAA Tournament field of 65.  He also wonders who Greg Paulus‘ demotion from starting PG to the bench at Duke will play out.
• A check-in with the top 25 recruits in the Class of 2009 (only seven are uncommitted).  Will anyone from next year’s class follow Brandon Jennings overseas?
• Here’s mid-major guru Kyle Whelliston’s ESPN preview on the teams and players to watch this season from the mid-major leagues.

Game of the Night.  UCLA 64, Miami (OH) 59.  Considering there was only one game of consequence tonight (no, Weber St. over Prairie View 78-68 doesn’t count), the GOTN was the second-round battle of UCLA and Miami (OH) in Westwood.  We just knew this would be a good game, and although once again, we couldn’t see the damn thing, all indications are that Charlie Coles’ Redhawks gave the Mighty Bruins everything they wanted.  Just how close was this game?  The largest lead by either team was 5 pts either way, and the majority of the game was played within one possession.  Whereas last night UCLA was led by its Fab Five freshmen, tonight the Bruins looked to their upperclassmen to secure the victory.  The rooks produced only 10 pts and 5 rebounds, while seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp accounted for 32 of the remaining 54 pts (including the last two pairs of FTs to seal the game in the last twenty seconds).  This will be a recurring theme for UCLA this year – when the young’uns produce, UCLA will be able to play with anyone in America; when they don’t, things will get dicey for Ben Howland’s club.  As for Miami (OH), they were led by Michael Bramos’ 22/4, but they were never able to create enough separation from UCLA to truly put the pressure on the Bruins.  We would have loved to have seen this game (leave comments below if you were lucky enough to do so), but we suppose this is a standard-issue Miami team, and they’ll have more than a few more opportunities to frustrate the hell outta some major conference squads in the next two months (@ Pitt, @ Xavier, @ Temple, @ WVU). 

CvC Semifinals.  The Gazelle Group got the F4 it wanted with the host school ‘top seed’ from each regional advancing to Madison Square Garden for the semifinals on Nov. 20.  UCLA will play resurgent Michigan, while Duke will play S. Illinois.  Clearly the tourney was set up to get the top five matchup between Duke and UCLA, but we’re not so sure about that.  By our calculations, UCLA, for instance, is only 1-2 in the eastern time zone on the eastern seaboard during the Howland era, and the single win was a one-point victory at Drexel a couple of years ago.  UCLA just doesn’t seem to travel east very well, and given their struggles tonight against a game Miami (OH) team at home, Michigan might be poised to spring the upset.  The UM Hoops blog encourages us to dampen the hype a little, and we get that sentiment given the Wolverines’ recent history, but with UCLA’s seemingly constant offensive struggles, Michigan could ride Manny Harris to a big upset next week.  In the other half of the bracket, we don’t expect Duke to have much trouble with S. Illinois simply because those are the types of teams that Duke feeds off of.  SIU just doesn’t have the athleticism that is required to close out on Duke’s shooters and finish plays over its defense.  Oh well – that’s why they play the games.  We’ll talk more about this next week.

On Tap Friday (all times EST) – must-see games in red:

• Florida (-23) v. Toledo (ESPNU) – 6pm
• Kentucky v. VMI (ESPN FC) – 7pm
• Stanford (-12.5) @ Yale – 7pm
• Connecticut (-26.5) v. W. Carolina (ESPN360) – 7:30pm
• Pittsburgh v. Fairleigh Dickinson – 8pm
• Maryland v. Bucknell – 8pm
• Kansas St. v. Florida A&M  (ESPN FC) – 8pm
• Villanova v. Albany – 8pm
• Texas v. Stetson (ESPN FC) – 8pm
• Oklahoma St. v. UT-San Antonio (ESPN FC) – 8pm
• Oklahoma v. American  (ESPN FC) – 8pm
• Purdue (-23) v. Detroit (ESPN360) – 9pm
• Clemson (-18) v. Hofstra  (CSS) – 9pm
• Texas Tech v. St. Francis (PA) (ESPN FC) – 9pm

Sometimes the stories that come across the wire are already so legendary, there’s really no reason to write additional copy.  From the Binghamton Press & News Bulletin:

A Binghamton University basketball player has been suspended from the team while charges of shoplifting and assault are pending in Vestal’s town court.  Malik Alvin, 20, was confronted by Wal-Mart security just after 2 p.m. Oct. 26 when officers said he took the contents of a box of 36 condoms without paying for them and attempted to leave the Vestal store, court documents say.  Alvin, a junior and newcomer to the BU team, eluded store security, but while on the run, collided in the store’s foyer with a 66-year-old customer, knocking her to the floor; she sustained a concussion, Vestal town court documents indicate.  Wal-Mart security told Vestal police they saw Alvin take two boxes of Trojan Magnum condoms from a store shelf. Alvin took the condoms into a restroom and stuffed the contents of one box — 36 condoms — into the front pockets of his pants, documents state. He reportedly left the other box in the restroom. […]  Binghamton University offers condoms for free in Resident Assistant offices and at the Health Services office behind Hinman community.

Perhaps there’s a limit on condom pilfering, or well, you know, maybe Binghamton Health Services doesn’t offer Magnums. 

In either case, the ladies at Binghamton U. had best watch their step or the greatest Don Juan the campus has seen since TK (above) rocked the leisure suits might just capture their purity in his venus flytrap.   

This is long overdue…

• Injury bug.  Va Tech forward JT Thompson will be out 4-6 weeks with a hernia.  Tyler Hansbrough appears “extremely doubtful” for UNC’s opener against Penn on Saturday.  Ole Miss guard Trevor Gaskins tore his ACL and will miss the entire season.   
• Nevada’s sticky-fingered trio of Brandon Fields, London Giles and Ahyaro Phillips will be held out of the season opener against Montana St. on Saturday.  Not sure why Fields is still suspended, his charges were dropped.
• UCLA’s Nikola Dragovic got into a dispute with his girlfriend last week and was arrested for misdemeanor battery.  He did not dress during last night’s game against Priarie View A&M. 
• Tennessee freshman PG Daniel West was ruled academically ineligible to play for the Vols this season, leaving juco transfer Bobby Maze and junior JP Prince as the only two legitimate ballhandlers to run Bruce Pearl’s attack this season.
• Georgia Tech senior guard Lewis Clinch is also academically ineligible, but he can earn his spot back on the team after the semester ends.  He’ll miss a minimum of seven games though. 
• Don’t expect any slicing or dicing of the current 16-team Big East arrangement on his watch, says newly voted Commish John Marinatto, who will begin next July 1.  He takes over for uber-successful commisioner Mike Tranghese.
• More meaningless exhibitions.  Stephen Curry (41 pts on 15-19 FGs) appeared rusty in an 84-54 Davidson win over Lenoir-Rhyne.  The defending champs, led by Sherron Collins (22 pts) and Cole Aldrich (17/10), handily defeated Emporia St.   Wisconsin plowed through a slogfest to win 64-47 over UW-Whitewater.  UConn’s Jerome Dyson and his 18 pts led the Huskies past UMass-Lowell 82-63.  Luke Harongody’s 21/10 helped Notre Dame to an easy win over Stonehenge Stonehill 79-47 last weekend.  Pitt’s Sam Young filled the stat sheet with 18/7/4 blks in an 82-30 mauling of La Roche as well on Sunday.
• Jeff Goodman gives his version of preseason bracketology, and he also went with the upset over UNC in the finals (Michigan St.).  We see ya with your #15 Belmont (over Tennessee) and #14 Portland St. (over Purdue). 
• RTC correspondent Baker (he covers the A-Sun and the SoCon) has launched his new site, Mid Major Review, which got off with a bang this week with his podcast interview of Belmont head coach, Rick Byrd, and we expect will provide great substance and analysis of the mid-major world throughout the season.  Welcome to the blogosphere, MMR.   

Story of the Night.  UCLA’s freshman class.  Last year’s freshman class arguably boasted the best player in the country in Kevin Love, but this year’s version, while lacking in equivalent star power, may more than compensate for Love’s loss with its depth and diversity of skills.  Jrue Holiday was the only rookie starter tonight in UCLA’s win against Prairie View A&M, but his four classmates (Drew Gordon, Malcolm Lee, Jerime Anderson and J’Mison Morgan) each came off the bench and contributed aplenty.  The quintet accounted for 41% of the minutes, 44% of the points, 44% of the rebounds and 43% of the assists tonight in the 82-58 win.  Ok, and 54% of the turnovers, but still, not a bad start for this freshman class of Bruins.  As for the game itself, it appears that UCLA still knows how to rebound (41-18) and the defense is still stingy – Prairie View was held to a mere 23% shooting in the first half; the fact that they shot 42% for the game indicates that either UCLA lost focus in the second half or Prairie View settled down – we’re leaning toward the former as an explanation.  Darren Collison led the way as he hit five threes en route to a 19/3/4 asst night.  The Bruins will play Miami (OH) tomorrow night in the second round of the CvC in a game that should combine for about 50 total pts.  Once again, ESPN isn’t allowing embedded videos so we’ll have to settle for linked highlights. 

Other Games.  S. Illinois 80, UMass 73.  We thought this would be the best game of the night, and it looks like we were right, as S. Illinois got themselves down nine at halftime to UMass before storming back behind nine threes in the second half to pull away in the last few minutes to win another home game.  Bryan Mullins had a huge night for SIU, going for 16/13/4 stls for the home team, but Kevin Dillard’s four threes in the second half didn’t hurt.  UMass was led by Ricky Harris with 24/5, but the stat that jumped off the Minutemen’s page was starting PG Chris Lowe’s TEN turnovers (with zero assists).  Michigan 76, Northeastern 56.  Gotta admit that we thought this game had upset potential, and we couldn’t have been more wrong.  Michigan’s Manny Harris followed up his impressive season debut with nearly a trip-dub (26/10/8 assts), as UM held Northeastern to 29% shooting (17% from three) for the game.  UM Hoops points out that, if Michigan is going to threaten this year, they’ll need to shore up their work on the boards.  Northeastern grabbed twenty offensive rebounds tonight (amazingly, they only had 29 total boards), and with UCLA looming on the horizon next week in MSG (probably), the Wolverines will need to repair that deficiency.  Miami (OH) 70, Weber St. 66.  So in the other half of the Westwood bracket, Miami (OH) won a game on a three by Kenny Hayes (24 pts) with 1.7 seconds left on the clock, despite losing nearly every major statistical category in the game.  The Redhawks were outshot (by 10% FG), outrebounded (by 7), outassisted (by 3), and yet they still prevailed.  How?  Turnovers, kids.  Seven additional TOs by Weber St. gave Miami just enough extra possessions to sneak by.  Miami will play UCLA tomorrow night for the right to play at MSG, and we expect Charlie Coles to have something up his sleeve to make this game interesting for a while. 

On Tap Thursday (all times EST). 

• UCLA (-15) v. Miami (OH) on ESPNU- 11pm

We’re coming to the end of the 2008-09 preseason materials with the release of today’s Blogpoll.  Again, if you’re new to the site or simply drank away your memory in the offseason, RTC, along with a cadre of a dozen or so college hoops bloggers, misfits, rogues and malcontents submits a weekly blogpoll to Gabby at March to Madness, the chief scalawag.  He organizes and tallies everything and sends it back to us so that we can throw it up on our blogs, thereby increasing our post counts and our worthy contributions to the college basketball canon.  Some quick analysis below…

Comments.

El Numero Uno.  UNC was everyone’s #1 team, including ours, and even though we chose Louisville to win it all in our bracket post earlier this week.  Does that make us inconsistent?  Wishy-washy?  A flip-flopper?  Nah.  UNC is the best team in America on paper at the beginning of the season (now).  But they’ll get upset by the second-best team (on our ballot) in America on paper in April.  How’s that for nuance?

Teams Overrated by the Bloggers (in our view).  UConn, Pitt, Texas, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Marquette, Wake Forest.  And no, we don’t hate the Big East, Big 12 or ACC.  Here are our reasons, respectively: no NCAA wins, weak perimeter shooting, no DJ Augustin, Griffin might be expected to do too much, can’t sneak up on folks this year, no inside game whatsoever, waaaay too green for prime time.

Teams Underrated by the Bloggers (in our view).  Gonzaga, Purdue, Davidson, Florida, Baylor.  Reasons:  Heytvelt is healthy again, love Matt Painter, Curry, the locker room incident last year, we just have a thing for Bears.   

Biggest Variance (aka Nobody Knows WTF to Do With These Teams).  Standard Deviation (Std Dev) refers to the amount of variance in the blogpoll votes for a specific team.  If everyone chooses a team at the same spot (i.e., UNC at #1), there is no variance and therefore the Std Dev is 0.00.  If, on the other hand, a team is picked all over the place – Notre Dame, Duke, Purdue and Wake Forest come to mind – the Std Dev will be relatively high.  Each of these teams was ranked as high as the Top 10 on some ballots, and unranked completely on others.  For example, M2M justifies his omission of Duke on his blogpoll post.   

Story of the Night.   Normally this would require its own post, but today was a travel day for us, so we’re going to throw it in tonight’s ATB.  Great news!  Bob Knight will return as an analyst and commentator for ESPN college hoops games this year (h/t TBL).  The analyst part we’re absolutely sure is a great idea (although his title game picks could use some help).  Everyone remembers how entertaining Knight was in the studio during the last few weeks of the regular season last year (he also showed up for the football Gameday at Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago).  Adding him to the Gameday crew for the entire season is a natural fit.  We’re less sure about Knight as an in-game commentator (with Dan Shulman or Brent Musberger on Thursday night games), but the possibility of a profane Knight tirade about a boneheaded player or ref makes us positively giddy at the prospect.

Game of the Night.  Tonight we had more CvC action, with the second night of the Durham, NC, regional and the opening nights at both the Carbondale, IL, and Ann Arbor, MI, regionals.  The only televised games were Duke v. Georgia Southern and the Michigan v. Michigan Tech games on ESPNU, so if you saw either feel free to provide some comments below.  N-Bug sent along a quote from Coach K relating Duke’s offensive output to a pinball game (he’s from a different era, ok), but in looking at the stat sheet of the 97-54 win, it appears that he should have been talking about his defense.  Duke held GSU to 28% from the field and outrebounded the Eagles by 25 boards, which must have made his happier with his team’s overall effort.  Singler again led the way with 19/8.  It’s difficult to nitpick a 43-point win, but Coach K might want to have his team work on FTs during the next week, as his team could have won by 60 had they shot it from the line a little better (25-49).  Duke will play the winner of S. Illinois/UMass in the semis next Thursday at MSG. 

Other Games. 

• Carbondale Regional.  SIU and UMass both played D2 opponents, so we’re not sure how valuable analyzing their wins vs. California (PA) and Arkansas-Monticello are, respectively.  SIU’s Carlton Fay had 16/11 as the Salukis pulled away in the second half to win 66-52.  UMass won its first contest in new coach Derek Kellogg’s debut, as Chris Lowe paced the Minutemen with 18/11 assts.  SIU v. UMass tomorrow night should be a good game, and either team would make for an interesting semifinal matchup with Duke.
• Ann Arbor Regional.  Michigan’s Manny Harris dropped 30/7 on Michigan Tech in the opener for John Beilein’s second team in Ann Arbor.  If anyone else saw this game, we’d be interested in knowing how the Beilein system in Y2 looked.  In the other game, Northeastern handled IUPUI 73-60 in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates.  Michigan should take this Northeastern team seriously – they’ll be fired up and are a substantial upgrade of talent than what the Wolverines faced tonight.  It would not shock us if Northeastern wins tomorrow night’s game. 

On Tap Wednesday (all times EST).  Several more CvC games…  it figures that the best game (SIU v. UMass) will be broadcast, um, nowhere…

• Miami (OH) (-12.5) v. Weber St. – 7:15pm
• S. Illinois (-4.5) v UMass – 8pm
• Michigan (-5) v. Northeastern (ESPNU) – 8pm
• UCLA (-35) v. Prairie View A&M  (ESPNU) – 10pm