Evaluating Murray State’s Chances In March Madness

Posted by rtmsf on March 4th, 2012

David Changas is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after observing Murray State at the OVC Tournament this weekend.

If it is possible in college basketball to win 30 games in relative anonymity, Murray State has done it.  The Racers, who became a story in college basketball when they were the last team undefeated team this season, capped off a remarkable run to capture the Ohio Valley Conference championship with a 54-52 victory over conference runner-up Tennessee State Saturday in Nashville.  But while the Racers dominated their league (their only loss coming to the same Tennessee State team on February 9) and ascended to a rare Top 10 ranking that they have held for a good portion of the season, most of America still doesn’t know a lot about this team, which is led by first-year coach Steve Prohm.

Murray's Dream Season Continues, But Now As OVC Champions

The discussion surrounding the Racers over the past few weeks has not been whether they would make the NCAA Tournament without winning the OVC automatic bid – that became a foregone conclusion after Murray State’s BracketBuster win over St. Mary’s – but where they would be seeded.  While Prohm said after the game that a look at the Racers’ body of work would justify as high as a #2 seed, he admitted that a “four, five, or six” is more likely.  What is most important to him is that his team’s loyal fans – and they dominated the crowds in Nashville over the weekend – have a chance to see them play. “I just want proximity. Nashville, Louisville. Somewhere where our fans can come and support our guys,” Prohm said.

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Circle of March, Vol. VII

Posted by rtmsf on March 4th, 2012

Saturday was a ridiculous elimination day with a total of 42 teams dropping off of our Circle of March. Granted, four of those schools were simply Great West teams finishing up their regular season, and another six were A-10 and SWAC schools who did not qualify for their respective conference tournaments. But 32 other teams were beaten in knockout games from 15 conferences in one of the busiest days of Championship Fortnight. We won’t list them all here, but the biggest name off our CoM is the two-time national runner-up, Butler, who was taken apart by Valparaiso in the Horizon League semifinals yesterday. We are now at 216 teams still alive for the 2012 national champoinship, which means that in just over six days, we’ve already eliminated over 100 schools from contention.

Sunday is a bit less busy than yesterday with eight tournaments in action and the MVC the only one among those to have a championship game. More importantly, we’re now only one week from the best hour in American sports — the revealing of the official bracket.

 

Bracket Prep: UNC-Asheville, Murray State & Belmont

Posted by rtmsf on March 3rd, 2012

The first three NCAA Tournament bids were earned on Saturday afternoon, so as each of the 31 automatic qualifiers plays their way into the Dance over the next week, we’ll take some time to give you an analytical snapshot of each team that you can refer back to when you’re picking your brackets next weekend.

UNC Asheville

UNCA Was the First Team to Dance This Year (E. Brethauer/Citizen-Times)

  • Big South Champion (24-9, 19-2)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #108/#123/#128
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +4.7
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #16 (First Four)

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

  1. UNC-Asheville is one of the smallest teams in America, sporting a starting lineup that goes between 6’1″ and 6’5″.  Their next three players off the bench are roughly the same size, which means that UNCA’s primary objective each night is to make the game into a full-court running affair. The Bulldogs are among the top 35 fastest tempos nationally, and you might expect them to rely heavily on the three-ball, but that’s not the case. Asheville’s offense instead seeks to drive the ball into the paint to shoot twos (52.5% 2FGs) and pick up fouls (77.4% FTs).
  2. The straws that stir the Bulldog attack are the backcourt duo of JP Primm and Matt Dickey, both all-Big South selections (Dickey was the conference POY). The pair of seniors are both capable shooters and distributors who played well in last year’s First Four win against Arkansas-Little Rock and subsequent loss to #1 seed Pittsburgh. They’ve played enough high major teams in their careers — North Carolina, NC State, Connecticut, Tennessee in just this year — so that they’re unlikely to get rattled.
  3. The best matchup for the Bulldogs would be another undersized First Four team that does not defend well, allowing the uptempo guards of Primm and Dickey to pick their spots and make things happen. Their next round game against a #1 seed is unlikely to matter in terms of a favorable matchup, but clearly bigger teams would be more difficult for Eddie Biedenbach’s team to handle. The Bulldogs were competitive with each of the power conference teams mentioned above.

Murray State

  • OVC Champion (30-1, 17-1)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #24/#47/#41
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +10.6
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #4-#6

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Circle of March, Vol. VI

Posted by rtmsf on March 3rd, 2012

Friday was a massive day of conference tournaments around college basketball nation, with 22 more teams ultimately losing their shot at the 2012 national title. The unlucky group includes: Canisius, Tennessee Tech, Indiana State, Drake, College of Charleston, James Madison, The Citadel, Towson, Northern Iowa, William & Mary, East Tennessee State, Youngstown State, Samford, St. Peter’s, Chattanooga, Milwaukee, Hofstra, Mercer, Loyola Marymount, Morehead State, Missouri State and San Diego. We also removed two Ivy League teams, as Princeton and Yale were eliminated as that conference closes out its regular season schedule this weekend (but for one game Tuesday). Note that William & Mary ended its 74th season in a row without an NCAA bid tonight, and Towson’s miserable 1-31 season mercifully came to an end as well. Better luck next year, guys.

Saturday is a HUGE day of tournaments, with no fewer than 15 mini-Dances occurring all around the country, including three championships that will result in the first three automatic bids for this year’s NCAA Tourney. Also, if Harvard wins and Penn loses, the Crimson will join the Dance for the first time since 1946. We’ve got an exciting day ahead of us…

 

ATB: Friday Night Lights With Jack Cooley, Harvard, and Plenty of Conference Tourney Action…

Posted by rtmsf on March 3rd, 2012

Tonight’s Lede. Friday night is usually reserved for the likes of the Ivy League and the MAAC, but that’s not the case during Championship Fortnight. With eight mid-major conference tournaments in action and 22 more teams eliminated from national title contention tonight, there were plenty of reasons to stay interested. Furthermore, we were treated with some compelling Ivy action as well as another look at one of the surprise teams of not only the Big East but also the entire country this year. Let’s jump into it…

Your Watercooler Moment. Cooley Than You.

Jack Cooley Is One of the Big East's Biggest Surprises This Year (US Presswire)

Just four days after Jack Cooley’s worst game of the year — a two-point, zero-rebound outing at Georgetown — the junior center returned to the lineup with a vengeance tonight, going for a 27/17 masterpiece on 10-15 shooting from the field to lock his team into a double-bye at next week’s Big East Tournament. The fact that we just wrote the previous sentence — that Notre Dame finished in the top four of the Big East standings and received a double-bye — is nothing less than phenomenal and a testament to the vast improvement of Cooley and several of his teammates this season. After losing its top three players to graduation (Ben Hansbrough, Carleton Scott) and injury (Tim Abromaitis), nobody expected the youthful Irish to do much of anything this year. Instead, Mike Brey’s team is now locked into the #3 seed in next week’s conference tournament and owns the only victory of the season over the Syracuse juggernaut. We’re not completely sold on the Irish making a deep run into March Madness, but the fact of the matter is that Mike Brey is one of the most underrated coaches in the country given that he’s pushed his team to six straight 20-win seasons and will make the NCAAs for the fifth time in six seasons.

Tonight’s Quick Hits

  • Harvard Keeps Hope Alive. It’s seemed a foregone conclusion for months that Harvard would win the Ivy League’s automatic bid this season and earn its first trip to the NCAA Tournament in over six decades. After last weekend’s home loss to Penn, however, the Crimson and Quakers were locked in a tie with two defeats each in the loss column. The Ivy doesn’t do artificial tiebreakers — like last year’s Harvard-Princeton classic, they decide their ties on the court. With alumnus Jeremy Lin watching from the stands in Morningside Heights tonight, Harvard barely survived Columbia in a nail-biting game that went to overtime. Penn kept the pace with an easier win over Brown, but HU will travel next to Cornell while the Quakers still have a home game against Yale before its rivalry game at Princeton on Tuesday. With one more win Saturday, the Crimson are at least guaranteed a berth in the Ivy playoff game again, but they probably do not want to tempt the basketball gods by losing that one.

RTC Live: Providence @ Notre Dame

Posted by rtmsf on March 2nd, 2012


Providence comes to South Bend for a Friday night game to close out the regular season for both teams. Interestingly, it is the Friars who are on the two-game winning streak, while the Irish have dropped two in a row. This game has Big East Tournament implications as Notre Dame tries to secure the coveted double-bye in next week’s tournament.

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Circle of March, Vol. V

Posted by rtmsf on March 2nd, 2012

Last night 14 more teams were eliminated from National Championship contention from seven different conference tournaments. Those schools were: Bradley, Charleston Southern, Jacksonville State, Monmouth, North Florida, Pepperdine, Portland, Sacred Heart, South Carolina Upstate. Southeast Missouri State, Southern Illinois, St. Francis (NY), UMBC, and Winthrop. The one surprise team among this group was #2 Big South seed Charleston Southern seeing its season end at the hands of VMI. From 296 down to 282…

Three more conference tourneys tip off today — the CAA, MAAC, and SoCon — with four others starting tomorrow. Gonna be a fun weekend throughout mid-major land.

The RTC Podblast, Episode 4.5

Posted by rtmsf on March 2nd, 2012

Here we go, heading into another weekend with an RTC Podblast. In today’s episode, we discuss the explosive (or was it?) story coming out about Ben Howland’s regime at UCLA, look at a couple of teams that really improved their NCAA prospects this week, and project forward to the weekend to consider the most interesting games on the calendar.

Bracketology S-Curve Update: 03.02.12

Posted by zhayes9 on March 2nd, 2012

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

  • Last Four In: Xavier, Miami, BYU, South Florida
  • First Four Out: Northwestern, VCU, Oregon, Arizona
  • Next Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Dayton, NC State, UCF

(italics indicates auto bid)

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Kansas

2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown, Marquette

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Florida State

5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Louisville, Temple, Murray State

6 Seeds: Florida, UNLV, Notre Dame, San Diego State

7 Seeds: New Mexico, Creighton, Gonzaga, Purdue

8 Seeds: Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, Kansas State, Cincinnati

9 Seeds: Alabama, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis

10 Seeds: Virginia, California, Harvard, Seton Hall

11 Seeds: Long Beach State, West Virginia, Connecticut, Washington

12 Seeds: Mississippi State, Texas, Colorado State, South Florida, BYU

13 Seeds: Miami, Xavier, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel

14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson

15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Montana, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: Bucknell, LIU-Brooklyn, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley, Savannah State

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Set Your TiVo: 03.02.12 – 03.04.12

Posted by Brian Otskey on March 2nd, 2012

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are going to mix it up a bit for the final three days of the season. There are so many good games on the schedule that it wouldn’t do them justice to leave them unmentioned, not to mention the games with an impact for bubble teams. Here are some quick hitters on all the games you need to be following.

Top games:

West Virginia @ South Florida – 12:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

The Bulls notched a huge win over Louisville earlier this week, but many feel they still have to win this game to ensure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers are hanging on by a thread but could really enhance their chances with a nice road victory in Tampa. This game has Big East Tournament implications as well, but both teams need it more for their NCAA chances. As a member of the Big East, South Florida has beaten 14 of the 15 other teams in the league. West Virginia is the only team they have yet to knock off. This would be one heck of a time to grab that win in West Virginia’s last regular season game as a member of the Big East. Pretty much everything is on the line in this game.

Can West Virginia Win A Big One On The Road?

#11 Georgetown @ #8 Marquette – 2:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

Both teams are obviously in the NCAA Tournament so this game is about seeding more than anything. A win over the Golden Eagles would be Georgetown’s ninth against the RPI top 50 and fifth against the top 25. Marquette has just one RPI top 25 win (Wisconsin) so adding another could really help Marquette’s seeding when the NCAA committee debates next Sunday in Indianapolis. The winner of this game will grab the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. The contrast of styles in this game will be fascinating as Marquette looks to run at home against a disciplined Georgetown defensive unit.

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