1. Even though there were a handful of players who could be considered potential early entry candidates after the April 10 soft deadline and before the April 29 hard deadline most of them were considered sure things to declare for the NBA Draft. Perhaps the most significant of those players who could have been realistically considered as being on the fence was Bradley Beal. On Friday, the Florida freshman ended any speculation as he announced that he would be declaring for the NBA Draft. Beal’s departure adds to the extra space in the once crowded Gator backcourt, but unlike some other individuals there really is no addition by subtraction as the Gator’s will miss Beal’s dynamic mix of talent. As for Beal, expect to see him gone in the first ten picks and more likely in the top five depending on what order teams are drafting in.
2. The exodus from Storrs continued late last week as Alex Oriakhi announced that he would be transferring to Missouri from the imploding Connecticut program. Oriakhi, who will be able to play immediately next season for Missouri after Connecticut’s 2013 NCAA Tournament ban was upheld, will be part of an entirely different Tiger team than the one that you saw this season as a significant portion of the team graduated while they are bringing in a handful of talented newcomers. Oriakhi should be able to mitigate some of the problems that the Tigers had on the inside last season, but it will be up to Frank Haith to reinvent the team with its new pieces.
3. With Trent Johnson headed to TCU, the administration at LSU did not waste much time finding his replacement as they hired Johnny Jones, the head coach at North Texas, to replace him. Although Jones was not LSU’s first choice he should appeal to many LSU fans as a former player and two Final Four appearances at the school (one as a player and another as an assistant under Dale Brown). Jones also lead North Texas to a pair of NCAA Tournament appearances as a head coach. Jones does inherit a decent LSU team, but he also leaves behind a solid North Texas team including Tony Mitchell, who had stated his intent to come back to North Texas for his sophomore season, but that may change with a new coaching staff to play under next season.
4. Florida International may not have had much success on the court recently, but they know how to move the needle with their coaching hires. After firing Isiah Thomas, the school has decided to name Richard Pitino as its next head coach. Richard, who is best known as the son of Rick and was acting as an assistant at Louisville, will be taking his first job as a head coach at the age of 29, which might seem young until you consider that his father got his start at the age of 26 at Boston University although that was a very different era. When Isiah left he claimed that the pieces were in place for the next coach to succeed so the onus on Richard now.
5. It seems like every few months a rumor comes to life about Larry Brown taking over as the head coach at some destination whether it is in the NBA, college, or even high school. The latest rumor, and one that has been picking up a lot of steam, is that Brown might become the next head coach at Southern Methodist. On the surface it seems ludicrous having a Hall of Fame coach, one who has titles at both the NCAA and NBA levels and perhaps more importantly one who will be 72 before the season starts, take over at SMU, a school that lacks any recent basketball success. It is also a school that will be heading to the Big East in 2013. Given Brown’s age and his tendency to have relatively short stays, his coaching staff could be a big story and we have heard several prominent names mentioned as potential assistants. Still we are having a hard time getting our heads wrapped around Brown being the head coach at SMU and the likely media circus that would follow.

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.

On the heels of Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad’s signings as the top two high school recruits, everyone is looking forward to next season. There’s especially great hype surrounding Kentucky, UCLA, and Arizona, the prize winners of 2012’s recruiting trail. While those fan bases should certainly be excited, we decided to conduct some research as a reminder that a top incoming recruiting class doesn’t necessarily guarantee future success. The incredible success of Kentucky’s one-and-done recruiting strategy over the past couple of years (two Final Fours, one National Championship) has helped foster the idea that top recruiting classes will result in immediate hardware. But let’s not forget that winning titles with youngsters has been more of an anomaly than the norm. A review of recent history shows that top recruiting classes have resulted in failure nearly as much as sustained winning.

Top Player Nerlens Noel is Headed to Kentucky, But That Doesn't Guarantee Success for UK (SI Photo)

It takes more than one top incoming recruiting class for a program to achieve top-level success. Kentucky’s 2012 National Championship will be synonymous with the “one-and-done” strategy, but it wasn’t like the Wildcats employed all freshmen to win the title. Of their top six players, three were freshmen. Sure, Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist were their best two players, and Marquis Teague was crucial as well, but UK would not have won the championship based on that recruiting class alone. Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller were massive contributors as well, meaning that the team’s success was a culmination of several years of top recruits, not just one haul that came in and won it all. This is the thesis that is established when reviewing recent history.

Let’s take a look at the past 10 years of recruiting history, analyzing a team’s success after it brings in a top-three recruiting class. We get our recruiting class rankings from Rivals.com. In 2003, it was Florida State, Oklahoma, and Maryland that took in the top high school recruits. The result? Just one of these three teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament the following season, with Maryland advancing to the round of 32. The Terrapins’ four years after this top class resulted in just two NCAA Tournaments and zero Sweet Sixteens. Oklahoma also qualified for just two NCAA Tourneys in four years with one postseason win. And Florida State, the owners of the top recruiting class of 2003, did not qualify for a single NCAA Tournament in the following four seasons.

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1. After pleading guilty to driving while impaired (marijuana) Derrick Nix was reinstated to the Michigan State team. Nix, who was arrested just after midnight on April 3, had 600 milligrams of marijuana on him at the time of his arrest and admitted to having smoked marijuana two hours before. Nix pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge and will be sentenced on May 11. As for his role on the team, Nix has been added back to the roster, but will be monitored closely. Although we have not read anything about an eventual suspension for Nix we assume it is coming with the length to be determined by his actions between now and the start of the season.
2. As we have pointed out multiple times in the past few weeks, just because the April 10 “deadline” has passed that does not mean your team is safe. We could talk about Connecticut losing Andre Drummond, but we won’t because everybody knew he was leaving. Instead we will look to another team in the Big East as Villanova will be without the services of Dominic Cheek, who announced that he would be leaving to play professional basketball. We say professional basketball instead of the NBA because there is no way that Cheek will get drafted in the first round and it seems more likely that he will go undrafted. Cheek says he is pursuing his dream of playing in the NBA, but it seems that if he is going to get there he is going to have to take a detour through Europe or some other version of the minor leagues before getting to the NBA. Despite Cheek’s poor NBA Draft prospects this is a big blow for Villanova, which already was hurt by the departure of Maalik Wayns.
3. The question of what to do with teams the NCAA has erased from the record books can be a difficult issue for many schools. Michigan is the latest school to learn that. The school, which saw an explosion in popularity with the Fab Five that subsequently was scrubbed from the record books, had taken down the Final Four banners from 1992 and 1993 as well as another from a Big Ten title and a NIT championship as a result of an NCAA ruling against the school in relation to inappropriate actions during that period. On Wednesday, University of Michigan President Mary Sue Coleman, the same person who had ordered those banners be taken down, stated that she had no intention of putting those banners up next year when the NCAA’s ruling that the school disassociate itself from those teams and players would be up. Jalen Rose, a member of those Fab Five teams, was less than pleased with the decision and voiced his displeasure on Twitter. We are not sure how or even if Coleman will respond to this, but it is a sticky situation that more and more schools will have to deal with in the coming years.
4. With the top two recruits having announced their destinations for next fall, the major recruiting services are essentially done with their rankings for the class of 2012. Two of the biggest rating services–Rivals and Scout–came out with their final rankings recently. Rivals has come out with their final Top 100 (or Top 150 if you go to their main site) while Scout has released what we think is their final Top 100. With the exception of a few small tweaks the lists are fairly similar as you would expect although we do think that herd behavior has an effect as well.
5. Yesterday, next year’s presumed #1 overall recruit Jabari Parker was named the Gatorade National Boys’ Basketball Player of the Year. The award is notable for the fact that Parker is just the fourth junior to win the award since it was created 27 years ago. The other players who won as juniors: LeBron James, Greg Oden, and Brandon Knight. While this year’s senior class was not that loaded, it did have some high-end talent particularly with the top two guys in the fact. The fact that Parker beat out those guys suggests that we could see a ridiculous recruiting battle over the next 12 months.

Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Top Recruit In the Country Chooses Kentucky

Noel's Commitment Gives UK the Number One Recruiting Class. (Sports Illustrated)

Noel’s Commitment Gives Wildcats Top Recruiting Class. Class of 2012 center Nerlens Noel, the best player in the high school ranks, committed to Kentucky yesterday over Georgetown and Syracuse. Noel joins shooting guard Archie Goodwin, small forward Alex Poythress and center Willie Cauley-Stein to give head coach John Calipari the best recruiting class in the country again. Goodwin and Poythress are both top-15 guys whereas Cauley-Stein is a top-50 recruit. Noel, a 6’11”, 216-pound big man, is the only person on this planet capable of filling Anthony Davis’ shoes at Kentucky and will provide an even better defensive presence and a great target in transition. The Massachusetts native is an excellent finisher and has good explosiveness and athleticism all over the court. He also has done a great job developing his offensive game and has shown an improved 15-foot jumper as well as better interior scoring moves. His rate of development is an extremely good sign for Kentucky fans since he’s already very talented. The good news for Wildcat fans doesn’t stop there since Coach Cal isn’t done yet in the Class of 2012. They’re still after power forward Anthony Bennett, a top-10 recruit, and have a very realistic shot at landing him too. The addition of Bennett would put this Kentucky recruiting class in the conversation of one of the greatest recruiting classes of all-time.

What They’re Saying

• Anthony Bennett on how he would fit in at Kentucky: “I can see myself fitting in [with] all schools but Kentucky, they produce great players. Coach Cal produces them to the league and makes them better and also they win national championships on top of that so it’s a great fit.” Read the rest of this entry »

1. Last night the college basketball world was hijacked by announcements from Shabazz Muhammad and Nerlens Noel about where they would he headed next season. The news from Muhammad’s camp leaked before he could announce that he was headed to UCLA while the news out of the Noel camp was a little bit of misdirection as initial reports suggested he was headed to Georgetown when in fact he was headed to Kentucky. While the decision by Noel may help decide next year’s national championship, Muhammad’s arrival in Westwood could help save Ben Howland’s job as he should make the Bruins one of the best teams out west the moment he steps foot on campus. Of course, if they are not…
2. Let’s give it up for Gary Parrish, a voice of supreme reason. When Muhammad announced for UCLA last night, many college basketball fans around the country had trouble understanding why a top prospect would choose a program coming off a rough season where fan support is lukewarm at best rather than one of the more rabidly supported programs located in Lexington or Durham. But, as Parrish notes (and notwithstanding that two of the top 10 or so players in the NBA are Howland guys), the answer at least partially lies in the powerful influence that the major shoe companies have on elite prospects behind the scenes. Muhammad is an adidas guy and UCLA is an adidas program. But before anyone starts singing sour notes about this obvious example of subtle coercion, Parrish notes that it happens every single year with a number of top prospects. There’s perhaps no greater an example than NPOY and Final Four MOP Anthony Davis — a Nike kid who ended up at a Nike school just one recruiting season ago. If Parrish is reading this, we’d love to see a list of these ‘coincidences,’ from say, the last decade or so.
3. We wrote Tuesday that Baylor had successfully played a compelling game of risk/reward in building its men’s basketball program to an elite level. The assumption underlying that thesis was that the NCAA would accept Baylor’s self-imposed penalties for exceeding mandated limits on phone calls and text messages to recruits from 2007-10 — the standard “probation” of recruiting restrictions as to time/place, loss of scholarships, etc. Sure enough, the NCAA did just that on Wednesday, accepting Baylor’s penalties and tacitly agreeing with our contention that the ends (recruiting enough studs to achieve two Elite Eights in three seasons) more than justify the means.
4. So let’s get this straight… Colorado State reportedly offered its open head coaching job to former Oregon head man Ernie Kent earlier this week, but it was nixed by an unknown high-ranking school administrator. So the back-up plan became to hire the guy who was once photographed partying with students while at Iowa State? We don’t know what the real story is here, and no disrespect at all is intended to Larry Eustachy (who has clearly turned his life around by doing well at Southern Miss), but goodness, something doesn’t smell right in Fort Collins. For what it’s worth, Kent says he was never offered the job by CSU and therefore it could not have been rescinded, but he also clearly wants to get back into coaching and it wouldn’t help his prospects to cause a ruckus over this situation.
5. Not every Pac-12 schools got good news on Wednesday. Well, Arizona got both good and bad news, with Sean Miller’s program announcing that two players were transferring in and two others were leaving after the semester. The headliner is that Josiah Turner, a former top 10 recruit from the class of 2011, is leaving Tucson for a destination unknown — his freshman season was marred by suspensions and inconsistent play at the point guard slot. Junior center Kyryl Natyazhko is also leaving Arizona, choosing to head back to Europe to pursue professional opportunities there. The good news it that the Wildcats will welcome Duquesne transfer TJ McConnell, a rising junior who averaged 11 points, six assists and four rebounds per game last season, and Matt Corcheck, a junior college transfer who will have three years of eligibility remaining. With Turner, Alex Oriakhi, Trey Ziegler and several others transferring this offseason, it’s a good year to have an extra scholarship lying around unused.

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.

Say what you want about the signing day process, one that includes kids announcing their college intentions on live television specials, but the effect of the announcements certainly meets the hype. While most of the top recruits had already made their decisions earlier this year, Wednesday night showcased the top two players in high school basketball announcing their decisions on ESPNU. Nerlens Noel (6’10” center from Massachusetts) chose Kentucky while Shabazz Muhammad (6’6” wing from Nevada) chose UCLA, enormous gains for each of these programs. Let’s take a look at what it means for the Wildcats and Bruins to each add a star recruit, as well as breaking down how teams like Georgetown, Syracuse, and Duke that were in the mix are now negatively affected.

They've Announced: Shabazz Muhammed (Left) is Headed to UCLA; Nerlens Noel (Right) is Off to Kentucky (Photo Credit - BleacherReport.com)

The Winners

UCLA – Despite the disappointing season in Westwood and the shaky ground under head coach Ben Howland, the Bruins have now found a way to notch a top-two recruiting class with the addition of Muhammad. Muhammad joins Kyle Anderson, another top 10 player in this class, as two talented, versatile wing players. Anderson is closer to 6’7” yet excels as a distributor with excellent awareness and vision with the basketball. Muhammad is 6’6” and more of a scorer, one whose attacking mentality should mesh perfectly with Anderson’s game. These two immediately become a potent one-two duo in the Pac-12 to match the solid talent already on the roster (David Wear, Travis Wear, Josh Smith, Larry Drew), and the Bruins may not be done. Top unsigned big man Tony Parker is also considering UCLA. The Bruins are a surefire Top 25 team heading into next season and could easily have Top 10 upside. There is reason for great optimism in Westwood, and the Pac-12 as a whole should be on the rise with Arizona and UCLA now taking home two of the top three recruiting classes in the nation.

Kentucky – The 2012 National Champions already had a very strong recruiting class for next season, but continuing the theme of the past several years the Wildcats will now welcome the top player in high school basketball — Nerlens Noel. Muhammad and Noel both had UK on their short lists, and Big Blue Nation surely wanted both to commit, but adding Noel is still a massive gain. John Calipari’s team now has a player to build around in the 6’10” Noel, who is an Anthony Davis-like shot-blocker that can have a similar defensive impact next season. He’s less skilled on the perimeter and has work to do offensively, but Noel is the No. 1 player in this class for a reason. He can be a dominant big man to pair up with the other talented freshmen Alex Poythress, Archie Goodwin, Willie Cauley, and another likely one or two unsigned recruits. Kentucky once again has the top recruiting class in the country, and the Wildcats will be favorites to repeat as champions if any of the starters from last season decide to stick around for another year.

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With Big Blue Nation growing desperate as news leaked that Nerlens Noel, the top recruit in the class of 2012, appeared to be headed to Georgetown and their beloved Kentucky Wildcats about to go 0-for-2 on the the night when the top two prospects in this year’s class John Calipari pulled through once again as the flat-top phenom turned around to reveal that his destination this fall was Kentucky.

And The Winner Is Kentucky...Again (Credit: Mocksession / @bubbaprog)

The addition of Noel gives Kentucky the top recruiting class in the country for the fourth straight year and could give Calipari a claim to having the best four-year recruiting run in NCAA history (here is what we said before last year’s class took the court). With Anthony Davis on his way out and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Terrence Jones likely joining him the Wildcats will have need for Noel’s skills, which should help wean Wildcat fans off of Davis even if he will not make them forget Davis.

The next question is what this does for the Wildcats in the rankings. With the top player in the class to go along with several other highly coveted prospects the Wildcats should have the #1 spot in the recruiting rankings locked up and should remain in the top 2 or 3 when the next tidal wave of “way too early” preseason rankings come out.

The Ben Howland era that appeared to be on life support just a few weeks ago may have received the shock it needed to bring it back go life tonight when Shabazz Muhammad announced that he would be heading to UCLA this fall. While there are still issues regarding Muhammad’s eligibility related to his family’s relationship with financial advisors that need to be sorted out the addition of Muhammad to go along with Kyle Anderson, a point forward who is one of the top recruits in the country, suddenly makes this UCLA class one of the best in the country.

Shabazz Is Taking His Show To UCLA

News of Muhammad’s commitment to UCLA broke shortly before ESPNU’s nationally-televised extravaganza where the nation’s top two players–Muhammad and Nerlens Noel–announced their choices as multiple sources confirmed that Muhammad informed coaches at Duke, Kentucky, and UCLA today that he is headed to Westwood. Muhammad is expected to formally announce his choice of UCLA any moment now and for Bruins fans who have endured a season from hell–injuries, suspensions, SI cover stories, and discontent–they will have to wait on pins and needles for final confirmation from the spectacular scoring wing himself.

The addition of Muhammad and Anderson instantly makes UCLA one of the top, if not the top, team out west. With the two spectacular freshmen, the Wear twins, and potentially Josh Smith the Bruins could have a very scary lineup although a lot of how lethal they will be depends on how willing Howland is to let the talent of his freshman shine even if it makes him go away from his usual methodical style of play.

1. After running the NCAA Tournament for over a decade, Greg Shaheen was replaced yesterday by Mark Lewis. As the article by Jeff Goodman points out Shaheen was widely respected within the college basketball community and was viewed as a good person to work with. We are not privy to the inner workings of the NCAA so we will not comment on how the entire process went down. We can however comment on our multiple interactions with him over the years and have to say that he always dealt with us fairly and when other people in similar positions of power may have been less likely to be as welcoming. We are not sure what his plans are, but there should be plenty of other organizations and companies that take a good, hard look at him for whatever openings they may have.
2. We may have identified the early 2013 national title favorite as Cody Zeller and Christian Watford announced that they will be staying at Indiana for at least one more year. Zeller was the key to the Hoosiers’ resurgence and in most years would have been a serious contender for most national freshman of the year awards while Watford provided what was widely considered the play of the year with his game-winning three against Kentucky. With those two returning Indiana should be poised to compete with Louisville and Kentucky (depending on their additions today) for next year’s national title.
3. With spring signing day upon us, we have a couple of articles to take you through the key players. The first is from  Eric Bossi, who takes a look at the ten top uncommitted prospects and where they might be headed.  The second is from Kevin Pelton and looks at the top incoming freshman from the Nike Hoop Summit. The names are mostly the same ones you have been hearing for the past year, but it is interesting to see legitimate criticism of their games, which you rarely see from most recruiting services when they discuss the top prospects.
4. Apparently adding one of the best freshman classes in the country was not enough for Arizona as they picked up T.J. McConnell, a transfer from Duquesne, yesterday. McConnell, who left Duquesne less than a month ago, picked Arizona over Virginia citing among other things his desire to win and compete in the NCAA Tournament. McConnell will not be eligible to play until the 2013-14 season due to transfer rules, but when he does he will have an outstanding supporting cast assuming that most of the incoming freshmen stay in college for more than a year. The addition of McConnell, who will likely be a four-year guy, should also add some stability to the roster over the long-term as many of the more highly rated recruits may not stay all four years.
5. The Indiana guys may have stolen the headlines, but there were a few others that made significant NBA Draft announcements yesterday. Jeremy Lamb decided that he would leave Connecticut before they had to deal with their 2013 NCAA Tournament ban. The move should not come as much of a surprise and our only question is how long until Andre Drummond joins him. Mason Plumlee will stick around Duke for his senior season, which may have led to Alex Oriakhi announcing that he had taken the Blue Devils off his transfer list. Plumlee’s return is fairly significant in that if he becomes a little more assertive the Blue Devils should be firmly in the top half of the very ACC next season. The last major announcement from yesterday was that Quincy Miller has decided to stay at Baylor for one more year. Miller’s announcement also should not come as a surprise as his freshman year was mediocre enough to scare away most NBA scouts.

Andrew Murawa is an RTC columnist.

Two summers ago, Lebron James held the attention of basketball fans as he pondered the big “decision” about where he would continue his career. After playing his first seven seasons in his hometown of Cleveland, James was a free agent and being pursued by numerous NBA teams who had spent years freeing up space under the salary cap in order to be able to make a pitch for his services. As we all now know, after much deliberation, James opted to turn his back on the Cavaliers and other suitors in favor of taking his “talents to South Beach” to play alongside superstar Dwyane Wade as well as all-star forward Chris Bosh.

On Wednesday, college hoops fans get “The Decision” times two, as the nation’s two biggest recruits – Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad – will both announce which college campus they will be taking their talents to next season. Noel is considering Syracuse, Georgetown and Kentucky, while Muhammad garners the attention of fans across the country as he considers UCLA as well as Kentucky and Duke, already having eliminated schools like UNLV, Arizona, Kansas and others from consideration. At this point, depending on whom you ask, either the Bruins or the defending champion Wildcats are the favorite, with the Blue Devils seemingly a distant dark horse, but until his name adorns a National Letter of Intent to one of those schools, it is all guesswork.

Shabazz Muhammad's Decision On Wednesday Night Will Have A Big Impact on the 2012-13 Season (Jonathan Daniels, Getty Images)

To avoid rehashing the guesses of those with partial information, we’ll compare the choices in Muhammad’s hand to the teams that “King James” considered when he made his fateful decision in July 2010.

Lebron : Cleveland Cavaliers :: Shabazz : UNLV

Why this analogy works: When James signed with Miami, he crushed the hopes of Cleveland fans who had hoped that the hometown kid would stick around to continue trying to build the Cavaliers into a long term winner. James grew up in Akron, just 45 minutes south of Cleveland, while Muhammad will graduate from Las Vegas’ Bishop Gorman High School this spring. But, just like James and Cleveland, Muhammad will forsake his hometown to ply his trade elsewhere at a bigger and historically more successful program. And, in both cases, if either player had landed with either one of these teams, those teams (the Cavs and the Rebels) would have been very good teams but not quite the favorite to take down the championship.

Why this analogy is flawed: The Cavs were apparently a significant possibility in James’ decision until very late in the process, while the Rebels faded from consideration some time ago.

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