Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

The Weekend’s Lede. Reining in the Last Weekend of February. The end of two prized college basketball traditions came to pass this weekend. ESPN’s annual Bracketbusters event saw its last go-round feature a slate that, frankly, didn’t meet the occasion of the event’s last rendition. Meanwhile, a decades-old Big East feud between Georgetown and Syracuse came to a close, and unlike the mediocre Bracketbusters field, the game was a fitting send-off for one of the nation’s best rivalries. Those two events headlined another excellent weekend schedule, the rest of which included (per the usual) a massive upset, some grueling league match-ups and all kinds of bubble and seeding implications sprinkled throughout.

Your Watercooler Moment. Miami Goes Down. 

The notion of Miami going undefeated in the ACC always felt like a distant, almost untenable concept. The Hurricanes are, at the risk of paint a bleak picture, a basketball non-entity. They play in front of an apathetic fan base at a “football school,” in a city with fans that are — let’s just say -– selective about going to see their teams play. Neither me, nor most of the nation’s best college hoops minds, knew exactly what to think. Miami was good, sure, but how good?

Until Saturday’s loss at Wake Forest, Miami’s first in ACC play, the answer was unambiguously glowing: Miami was good enough to run the table, despite everyone’s early-conference season doubts. The Hurricanes were storming through league competition, barely breaking a sweat while doing it and slowly but surely grasping the country’s attention as they rose up the AP Poll and surfaced as a favorite to land a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. The praise was well-earned; this team can really play. Not only do they have spiffy efficiency numbers to back up the results – which include a 27-point drubbing of Duke and wins over NC State and UNC – they also have the experience and senior leadership to complete the intangible component of a legitimate Final Four candidate. It’s never fun to be the subject of another team’s court storming, nor is it comforting to have your undefeated conference run come courtesy of one of the nation’s worst Power Six schools (Yes, Wake plays teams tough at home, but come on: these squads aren’t in the same league). But if you began the weekend pleasantly impressed and optimistic about Miami’s chances of making a deep March run this season, I don’t know why you’d lose faith now. Miami lost, and it didn’t look particularly good in recent games against Clemson and North Carolina, but does one game negate a 13-0 ACC start, a top-10 efficiency profile and a senior-laden team armed with the sideline guile of March-savvy coach? No, it doesn’t.

Also Worth Chatting About. Hoyas Soil Storybook Big East Exit.

Wins don’t get any bigger than Georgetown’s Saturday at the Carrier Dome at the Carrier Dome. (Getty)

All the elements of a ceremonial Syracuse smackdown were present. A raging pack of 35,000 + orange-clad maniacs, an eligible and re-ingratiated James Southerland, the jersey-hanging commemoration of one of the best players in program history (Carmelo Anthony). Saturday, at the Carrier Dome, this was about the Orange, about Jim Boeheim, about punishing a rival one very last time. Otto Porter and the victorious Georgetown Hoyas were having none of it. A defensive battle, as expected, stayed tight deep into the second half. Syracuse’s trademark 2-3 zone frustrated the Hoyas all afternoon, and Georgetown countered with smothering defense of their own. The deciding factor was Porter. In a game where points, assists and general offensive execution was hard to come by, Porter rose to the occasion in an impossibly tough road environment (before Saturday, Syracuse hadn’t lost at the Carrier Dome in 38 games, the nation’s longest streak). And so after a bumpy opening in conference play, and all the usual Hoyas-centric questions about season-long endurance being raised, Georgetown has rendered moot a once debatable subject: who’s playing the best basketball in the Big East these days? Georgetown is the only answer.

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 26 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 11 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 17 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have seven teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are 10 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 26
“SHOULD BE INS”: 7
TOTAL: 33 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 27)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 10

• Odds Improving: Saint Louis, UNLV
• Odds Decreasing: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Baylor
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: None

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 24, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (19-8, 9-5; RPI: 20): The Tar Heels have a second victory over the RPI top 25 after a win at home against N. C. State on Saturday. Although North Carolina still lacks for great wins, it still has a game against Duke to end the season. Plus, it would be crazy to imagine UNC missing the NCAA Tournament with a top 20 RPI. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Maryland (19-8, 7-7; RPI: 66): Every time Maryland seems to take a step forward, the Terps quickly take a step back. Remember the upset win against Duke? Maryland followed that by losing to Boston College but rebounded with a win against Clemson. Three of the last four are on the road, but they are all against some of the worst teams in the ACC (GT, WF, VIR). AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Virginia (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 75): Virginia has six wins against the RPI top 100, but three losses to the miserable CAA. When you consider both, it makes for one of the more confusing resumes to figure out in the country. Virginia’s RPI has finally risen to a mediocre level, but it needs to keep rising. A game against Duke on Thursday will probably decide the Cavaliers’ at-large fate. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: Two Lock, Five Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 10-3; RPI: 34): The Rams’ best victories are over Belmont and Memphis, and neither of those teams are locks to get at-large bids. VCU has five losses, all against the nation’s top 100. Butler plays at VCU on March 2, a huge game for the Rams. A win there will lock them up. AT-LARGE ODDS: 70% Temple (18-8, 7-5; RPI: 47): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Wins over Massachusetts, La Salle, and Charlotte have Temple on the good side of the NCAA Tournament bubble for now. Losing any of the next three would be devastating. A finale against VCU may end up deciding the Owls’ fate heading into the Atlantic 10 Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55% La Salle (19-7, 9-4; RPI: 36): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. A loss to Temple on Thursday hurts but at least La Salle rebounded by winning at Rhode Island on Sunday. Duquesne and George Washington are next on the schedule before a monster game at red-hot Saint Louis. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (18-7, 6-5; RPI: 54): It is never a good sign when as a bubble team you lose to two other teams from your same league by 17 and 20 in the same week. That’s what happened to Charlotte this week. First a 17-point defeat at Saint Louis (somewhat understandable considering how the Billikens are playing) followed by a whipping from Temple. Here’s the bad news: None of the remaining four games on this schedule will impress the committee with a win, but a loss in any of them will be very costly. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Massachusetts (16-9, 6-6; RPI: 59): Three straight losses to VCU, Temple, and St. Bonaventure have left Massachusetts on the bad side of the bubble. The Minutemen have to beat Butler at home March 7 to have any shot at an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 20% Other Atlantic 10 teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (5%), Xavier (5%)

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (18-8, 9-5; RPI: 21): Oklahoma caught Kansas at the right time, becoming the third straight Big 12 team to knock off the Jayhawks a couple of weeks back. That victory, coupled with wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor, leave the Sooners in good shape for an at-large bid. A win against Baylor on Saturday gave Oklahoma a sweep of the Bears. Three of the next four are against non-contenders so expect the Sooners to win 12 conference games and finish with a top 25 RPI. Those numbers would be enough, despite a lack of great wins. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Iowa State (19-8, 9-5; RPI: 51): Iowa State is on pace for an at-large with wins over Kansas State, Oklahoma, BYU, and a sweep of Baylor. The Cyclones have a challenging schedule the rest of the season, so they are still far from the clear. The next three are Kansas, at Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Baylor (16-11, 7-7; RPI: 63): Oh boy, the Bears are in trouble now. Baylor has one win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and seven losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is games against Kansas State and Kansas still remain on the schedule. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Other Big 12 teams with an at-large chance: None currently

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Welcome to this week’s RTC Podblast, hosted by Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114). In a week full of competitive and interesting games, the guys focus in on the three biggest of the slate — Michigan State-Indiana, Kansas-Oklahoma State, and Florida-Missouri, while looking ahead to a weekend of action slightly better than last. As always, the weekly outline is below, so feel free to jump around to the place that most suits your interest…

• 0:00-6:19 – Kansas in the Big 12 Driver Seat Yet Again
• 6:19-13:45 – Indiana Cements Itself as Top Team
• 13:45-15:33 – Florida Reminds Us Not to Trust Them
• 15:33-17:57 – Preview Big Weekend in the A-10
• 17:57-19:17 – Creighton and Saint Mary’s Headline Last BracketBusters
• 19:17-20:57 – Another Week Another Exciting MW Game
• 20:57-23:16 – End of a Big East Battle at the Carrier Dome/Wrap

David Cassilo is an RTC columnist who also writes about college basketball for SLAM magazine. You can follow him at @dcassilo.

Wouldn’t it be fun to have a real college all-star game? First of all, it would give every team a break it needs, and second, seeing the top players face off would be great. Imagine something like Trey Burke, Victor Oladipo, Doug McDermott, Jeff Withey and Kelly Olynyk against Marcus Smart, Deshaun Thomas, Otto Porter Jr., Mason Plumlee and Cody Zeller. Personally, I would love to see Burke and Smart run their teams against each other. I know there is some lame all-star game during Final Four weekend, but a mid-season game is something that the NCAA should consider.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

10. Marcus Smart – Oklahoma State (Last week – NR)
2012-13 stats: 15 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.4 APG, 2.9 SPG

It’s amazing that Smart not only is this great already but also has so much room for improvement. In the double-overtime loss against Kansas on Wednesday, he was the most important player on the floor despite going 2-of-14 from the field. One more offseason of workouts will make him a lethal player. This week: February 23 at West Virginia, February 27 at TCU

9. Kelly Olynyk – Gonzaga (Last week – 10)
2012-13 stats: 17.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG

Kelly Olynyk’s Breakout Year Has Gonzaga As One Of The Nation’s Elite Offensive Teams (USA Today Sports Images)

There is likely no better frontcourt tandem in the nation than Olynyk and Elias Harris. The two combine to average 32.5 PPG and 14.4 RPG. There are few teams in the country that will be able to match up with that duo in the NCAA Tournament. This week: February 23 vs. San Diego, February 28 at BYU

8. Deshaun Thomas – Ohio State (Last week – 8)
2012-13 stats: 20.1 PPG, 6 RPG

Thomas is just a straight-up gunner. He takes 16 shots per game and has scored in double-figures in every game this season. It seems nearly impossible to completely take him out of a game defensively. This week: February 24 vs. Michigan State, February 28 at Northwestern

7. Doug McDermott – Creighton (Last Week – 7)
2012-13 stats: 22.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG

For all his accolades as a scorer, McDermott’s ability to rebound often gets overlooked. The 6’8″ junior has eight double-doubles so far this season and has hauled in as many as 13 rebounds in a game. This week: February 23 at St. Mary’s, February 27 at Bradley

6. Jeff Withey – Kansas (Last week – 6)
2012-13 stats: 13.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.0 BPG

At the most important part of the season, Withey is playing his best basketball. He’s had double-doubles in his last three games, which is something he hasn’t done all season. The 14 rebounds against Oklahoma State on Wednesday were a season-high. This week: February 23 vs. TCU, February 25 at Iowa State

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• Illinois continues to be the toughest team in the country to figure out. The media’s mock bracket came out last week and the Illini were a #5 seed. This team was once ranked in the nation’s top 15 teams and then it was 2-7 in conference with a game against No. 1 Indiana up next. The Illini won that one at the buzzer and four more games in a row to get to 7-7 in conference. Compare Illinois to the other teams around them in the bracket — they have five wins against the RPI top 26 and no longer have an under .500 conference record to bring them down. I agree with the media mock — Illinois is now a #5 seed.
• After Florida’s loss earlier this week against Missouri, the #1 seed line is again hard to figure out. Indiana and Miami (FL) are easy to pick given their overall resumes and Duke fits in nicely despite struggling somewhat without Ryan Kelly. The fourth #1 seed could be any number of teams. It looks like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm have pegged Gonzaga as the final top seed, but I disagree. The Zags are going to have to rely on the eye test to get that high and in general most are decided by overall profile and not eye test. Gonzaga simply does not have the profile of a #1 seed.  Michigan State is the fourth top seed in my field based on the Spartans’ overall profile.
• The Mountain West is a mess. It looks like four teams are going to get a bid, with UNLV and Colorado State playing fantastic basketball over the last few weeks. New Mexico has a top five RPI and San Diego State held the Lobos to 33 points in a game earlier this year.  Putting those teams into the bracket is pretty tough, because there is not a lot of separation between them.
• Maryland was in my field after upsetting Duke, but the Terps are out again after falling to Boston College.  Temple is in after defeating La Salle. Indiana State has fallen out of serious at-large contention after a loss to Wichita State and six inexcusable losses on its resume.
• Kentucky and Mississippi are making things interesting in the SEC. Both teams are among my last four teams in. Missouri’s win over Florida practically assures the conference of at least getting two teams in.
• Minnesota and Cincinnati are sliding in my bracket, but I still think both teams are safe. The Gophers may not want to tempt fate, though. Tubby Smith’s team has been blown out in games against Iowa and Ohio State and is now two games under .500 in the Big Ten. Teams under .500 in conference play typically do not get in. Overall, 34 teams have gotten at-large bids over the last 43 years while being under .500 in conference play.

LAST FOUR IN: Colorado, Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky
FIRST FOUR OUT: Boise State, Alabama, Arizona State, Charlotte

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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1. We have already talked about the mock brackets in this space quite a bit, but Seth Davis offered one of the better summaries of the more detailed aspects of how the brackets come together (based on geography more than the imaginary S-curve, etc) in his weekly Hoop Thoughts column. Even if you have had more than enough information about a fake bracket, the column also has quite a bit of other interesting information including an update on the potential return of Ryan Kelly for the ACC Tournament and why conference realignment might help push Shaka Smart towards a new job.
2. We seem to see multiple columns coming out everyday for the past week hyping Victor Oladipo as a potential player of the year candidate and now we actually have some proof of his legitimacy as a candidate with the voters as he has moved up to #2 in Michael Rothstein’s straw poll. We aren’t quite sure what the sampling error is with this poll, but it seems like Trey Burke has a fairly comfortable lead. Still with Indiana in excellent position for the #1 overall seed (if there was a #1 overall seed) and a potential showdown with Burke on the last day of the regular season looming Oladipo is still within striking distance. We don’t particularly care about regular season awards, but given how under-the-radar Oladipo was at the beginning of the season it would be a remarkable turn of events.
3. While we will be sad to see some traditional rivalries go we are more ambivalent to change in rivalries that conference realignment will bring, but there are a few rivalries that we will particularly miss. One of those is Syracuse–Georgetown (or Georgetown-Syracuse depending on your perspective). With the last game at the Carrier Dome coming this Saturday, Syracuse.com took a look back at the top ten moments of the rivalry. We are guessing based on our demographics that the vast majority of you saw less than half of these moments and because the rivalry isn’t promoted to the degree of another rivalry two teams wearing different shades of blue most people are not as familiar with these moments.
4. With seven African-Americans occupying the fourteen heading coaching positions in the SEC the conference has  tied the ACC during the 2008-09 season for having the most African-American coaches in one conference at any one time. When you include Frank Martin, a Cuban-American, the conference actually has more “minority” coaches (eight) than Caucasian coaches (six). While we still have a long way to go as a country with race relations and hiring even with something as seemingly trivial as men’s college basketball coaches it is worthwhile praising a conference that has long born the stigma of having a strained racial history.
5. Our last item is a bittersweet congratulations to Dick Kelley, the assistant athletic director of media relations at Boston College, who along with Beckie Edwards received the US Basketball Writer’s Association Most Courageous Award. Edwards has her own harrowing story (coming out about the sexual abuse she suffered as a young child at the hands of her father), but for the purposes of this column and the fact that we know Kelley and not Edwards we will focus on his story. Kelley, who was the first person to credential our site as a media entity in 2008, was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (Lou Gehrig’s disease) in 2011, which has confined him to a wheelchair. Although we have not seen him recently due to our relocation we want to send him our best wishes.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.

Tonight’s Lede. Preparing For A Packed Weekend. Tuesday night and Wednesday night stole most of this week’s college hoops goodness. They brought us the Kansas-Oklahoma State double-overtime nailbiter, Indiana’s show-me victory in East Lansing and an expected and enthralling Mountain West showdown at UNLV. Thursday night didn’t feature as diverse a selection of intriguing games or storylines, but one bad night of hoops – taken alongside a loaded weekend slate, which includes the last-ever BracketBusters event – is probably not going to fly over the high-level hardwood drama that played out over the past two nights. If anything, a one-night dose of relative mediocrity (at least schedule-wise) will whet your appetite for the weekend ahead.

Your Watercooler Moment. Justin Cobbs Lifts Cal.

A huge last-second shot by Cobbs lifted Cal over Oregon in Eugene (Photo credit: AP Photo).

The national media spotlight directed at Cal coach Mike Montgomery following a controversial second-half sideline encounter with star guard Allen Crabbe dwarfed the positive aspect of the Golden Bears’ eight-point win over USC. Cal was winning, and winning against solid Pac-12 competition (USC regained its competitive edge since getting ride of Kevin O’Neill; they are unequivocally a nuisance to play). Their three-game winning streak, which began with an eye-opening eight-point victory at Arizona, was extended Thursday night by a gutsy two-point win at Oregon, who had only lost once beforehand at Matthew Knight Arena. The Ducks were without freshman point guard Dominic Artis, and Cal’s superior guard play only magnified Oregon’s shaky backcourt. But for as much as Artis’ absence may or may not have altered Oregon’s backcourt functionality, you can’t disabuse the fact that Cal picked up another huge win in a late-season surge full of them. This team’s recent rise has been a steady climb into the thick of Pac 12 contention; as of Thursday night, the Bears sit just one game back of Arizona and Oregon (and 0.5 games back of UCLA), with a manageable closing schedule that should allow the Bears to close the gap should the Duke or Wildcats slip the rest of the way. Justin Cobbs’ last-second heroics are just the latest evidence; right now, Cal is the best thing the Pac-12 has to offer, full stop. The only question is, why didn’t we see this the first, I don’t know, three months of the season?

Also Worth Chatting About. This Could Get Ugly For Cincinnati.

This has been a disappointing set of games for Cronin and Cincinnati (Photo credit: AP Photo).

Let me start by saying this: I don’t envision any realistic scenario where Cincinnati misses the NCAA Tournament. Entering Thursday night’s game at UConn the Bearcats owned a top-40 SOS and RPI figure, nonconference wins over Oregon and Iowa State and commendable league triumphs against Marquette and at Pittsburgh. There are bubble teams that would give anything for that collection of wins and computer power. The Bearcats remain in decent bubble shape, but Thursday night’s overtime loss in Storrs brought to the surface a potentially grim reality for Mick Cronin’s team. Dating back to a February 6 loss at Providence, the Bearcats have now dropped four of their last five, the lone win coming against Villanova. Looking back and rattling off the factors (individual and schedule related) behind the losing skid is simple. It’s what most optimistic fans would do after watching their once-formidable Big East favorite endure the toughest portion of its conference schedule. Here’s where that logic falls flat. If you look at Cincinnati’s remaining games, the only one that you can honestly qualify as anything remotely resembling “easy” is the season-finale against South Florida. In the meantime, Cincy has to play at Notre Dame, a revenge game with UConn and at Louisville. Best case scenario: Cincinnati splits the final four, carries a totally respectable .500 Big East record into the league Tournament, and reboots for a postseason push. The Bearcats have already damaged their seeding prospects beyond what anyone could have reasonably imagined. Botching this final stretch could really diminish their stature in seeding and locational committee discussions.

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Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. Night Line runs on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

If you are a college basketball fan and don’t reside under a rock, you know all about Mike Montgomery and Allen Crabbe’s testy exchange on Sunday. An unfortunate incident worthy of at least most of the debate and discussion that followed, but it’s officially time to move on, folks. Don’t despair if you still want to talk Cal basketball, however, as the Golden Bears are providing plenty of reasons on the court to keep the buzz going. A 48-46 win at Oregon tonight now has them winners of four in a row and six out of seven, with wins over Arizona, UCLA, and now a season sweep of Oregon included in the surge. For those keeping track at home, that’s a win over each of the top three teams in the Pac-12 standings, with a respectable loss at Arizona State standing as the only February blemish. Winning hasn’t always been pretty or easy for the Bears, but they are suddenly as likely a candidate as any to steal the Pac-12 regular season title. Yes, you read that right – California, once 3-4 in league play, could wind up as your Pac-12 champs.

Allen Crabbe Was Relatively Quiet On Thursday Night, But His Pac-12 Player Of The Year Profile Grows With Every Golden Bear Victory

Give credit to the collective resourcefulness of the Bears, the coaching of Montgomery, and the proficiency of Crabbe (his Pac-12 POY stock soaring right now), but the reason the recent push has the Bears sitting with realistic championship dreams has far more to do with every other team in the conference. After spending the 2011-12 season facing constant derision (and deservedly so), the Pac-12 conference has bounced back in a big way this year. Recent bracket projections have included as many as six conference teams in the NCAA Tournament field, a development that would be a veritable windfall for a league that sent just one at-large team to the Dance a year ago.

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

Bracket Math: Below there are 24 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinch an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only 13 at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 19 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament.  I also have nine teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are 10 total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch.

LOCKS: 24
“SHOULD BE INS”: 9
TOTAL: 33 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 27)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 10

• Odds Improving: UNLV, Missouri
• Odds Decreasing: Mississippi, Baylor, Minnesota
• Locks That Are Trying My Patience: None

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 20, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

North Carolina (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 24): North Carolina has only four wins over the RPI top 100 and only one against the top 50. Six of North Carolina’s eight losses are to teams in the top 20 of the RPI, but the other two (Virginia, Texas) might end up dooming Roy Williams’ squad on Selection Sunday. Getting a revenge win over the Cavaliers on Saturday kept the Heels above Virginia in the ACC pecking order. Games against N. C. State and Maryland remain on the schedule before hosting Duke in the finale. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Maryland (18-8, 6-7; RPI: 66): The Terps upset Duke on Saturday night, but followed that up by losing on Sunday to Boston College. The next three against Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest provide great chances for wins before a crucial bubble game with North Carolina on March 6. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Virginia (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 75): .The Cavaliers have six wins against the RPI top 100 and six losses to teams below the top 100. The Cavs are really banking on wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and North Carolina State. On Saturday, Virginia missed a chance for a bubble win over North Carolina and then lost to Miami in the closing seconds Tuesday. Duke comes to town February 28, following a must win home game against Georgia Tech. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Other ACC teams with an at-large chance: None currently

Atlantic 10: One Lock, Six Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Saint Louis (20-5, 9-2; RPI: 42): Saint Louis is getting hot at the right time. The Billikens are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have victories over Butler and New Mexico on their resume. They also just beat VCU by double digits. Plus, there is only one bad loss here (Rhode Island). This is looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament team.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 75% Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, 9-3; RPI: 36): The Rams’ best victories are over Belmont and Memphis, and neither of those teams are locks to get at-large bids. VCU has five losses, all against the nation’s top 100. Saturday’s win over Charlotte gave the Rams a third top 50 victory (barely, Charlotte is No. 49) and kept the 49ers well behind the Rams in the at-large order in the Atlantic Ten, but I think it is clear that Saint Louis has passed the Rams. The Billikens dominated VCU on Tuesday night. AT-LARGE ODDS: 70% Temple (17-8, 6-5; RPI: 48): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. A one point win over Massachusetts was big on Saturday. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% La Salle (18-6, 8-3; RPI: 33): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. Next up is a huge bubble game against Temple on Thursday night. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Charlotte (18-7, 6-5; RPI: 49): Charlotte officially entered the bubble conversation on Wednesday night after a win against Butler. Unfortunately, the 49ers followed that up by losing to VCU. Next up is Temple on Saturday. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45% Massachusetts (16-9, 6-6; RPI: 59): Three straight losses to VCU, Temple, and St. Bonaventure have left Massachusetts on the bad side of the bubble. The next one against Dayton is huge or the Minutemen are off the Bubble Watch. AT-LARGE ODDS: 20% Other Atlantic 10 teams with an at-large chance: Richmond (5%), Xavier (5%), Saint Joseph’s (5%)

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (17-8, 8-5; RPI: 18): Oklahoma caught Kansas at the right time, becoming the third straight Big 12 team to knock off the Jayhawks. That victory, coupled with wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor leave the Sooners in good shape for an at-large bid. An overtime loss to Oklahoma State stings, but doesn’t do a ton of damage. Next up is Baylor. AT-LARGE ODDS: 65% Iowa State (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 44): The Cyclones lost at Texas on Wednesday night, which pushes Iowa State to 2-7 on the road this year. Despite that awful loss, the sky isn’t falling here (yet). Iowa State has two wins against the RPI top 25 (Oklahoma, Kansas State) and six victories against the RPI top 100. Two bad losses — the one to the ‘Horns and one at Texas Tech earlier this year — will still be taken into consideration by the selection committee. Wednesday’s win over Baylor finished a sweep of the Bears. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60% Baylor (16-10, 7-6; RPI: 60): Baylor is in pretty bad shape right now. The Bears were swept by Iowa State and have lost to Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. The only win over one of the other Big 12 NCAA competitors is a victory over Oklahoma State. Next up is a game at Oklahoma. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Other Big 12 teams with an at-large chance: None currently

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1. After nearly two years of investigations and countless missteps the NCAA finally sent Miami and people who left the school their notice of allegations. All of the reports that we have at this point are from sources as nobody outside of the school’s administration has access to the official notice, but the primary allegations are for “lack of institutional control”, which is amusing given the lack of institutional control that the NCAA has shown in controlling their own investigators. While most of these allegations are around the football team, at least a few of them involve the basketball staff under former coach Frank Haith, who has moved on to Missouri. According to reports Haith is facing a failure to monitor charge rather than the more serious unethical conduct charge that could have carried a show-cause penalty.
2. When NCAA Selection Committee Chairman Mike Bobinski claim that the RPI was the best computer predictor of NCAA Tournament success we were stunned, but unlike many of us who just laughed at the suggestion John Ezekowitz decided to take a look at the data and found that Bobinski was wrong. As you would expect Ken Pomeroy’s rankings outperform the RPI (of course every college basketball fan knows that Pomeroy is the most amazing thing ever), but what is more interesting is how much Ezekowitz’s Survival Advantage model (explained here) outperforms both the RPI and Pomeroy in predicting the NCAA Tournament. This is something that you should remember in a month when you are filling out your bracket.
3. As usual Luke Winn’s weekly power rankings have their usual wealth of great information packed into the most concise format this side of Twitter. While Luke always makes great use of graphics and charts his weekly column typically focuses on one or two major themes. This week’s themes (outside of enraging every single college basketball fan in the state of Michigan) are Winn’s analysis of three players (Trey Burke, Tyler Zeller, and Kelly Olynyk) having exceptionally efficient high-usage seasons and two players (Kenny Kadji and Erik Murphy) who have become much more perimeter-oriented later in their college careers.
4. The success of a few individuals (most notably Mike Leach in football before his closet fiasco) has led some to speculate that there could be a change in the way that sports are played. One of the latest examples to make the media rounds is the style of play from West Liberty, a Division II school, that has been highly successful in playing an up-tempo style of basketball. While we have had our issues with gimmicks in basketball (see our takedown of Malcolm Gladwell from 2009), but this attack and others like it are obviously more nuanced than what Gladwell espoused. We doubt that any power conference schools (read: athletic directors) would be willing to try it, but we would love to see a mid- or low-major try it out.
5. Since the Fab Five, which technically didn’t exist (we’re still going with that, right), Michigan has experienced relatively little success in the NCAA Tournament. However, this season the Wolverines have realistic Final Four aspirations and with the NCAA’s dissociation of Chris Webber and the school ending in May, the school has been reaching out to the former members and with Juwan Howard now on board it seems like only a matter of time before the school has some big event to celebrate the group. Frankly we cannot see the downside of it other than irritating the NCAA, which will still leave a black mark next to the team’s accomplishments. However the administration has expressed some reservation in celebrating the group so it will be interesting to see what they decide.