I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.
When you hear the word “Niagara” you’re not likely to think of basketball. But in the shadow of one of the world’s natural wonders, something is percolating on the hardwood. After a thrilling 93-90 overtime win over Iona that included a rally from a late 15-point deficit and a buzzer-beating three-pointer to win the game, Niagara sits atop the MAAC standings at 10-1. A win over Loyola today would cap a tremendous week for the Purple Eagles, giving them a perfect 3-0 record against the next three teams in the standings — Iona, Loyola, and Canisius — over the past seven days.
Juan’ya Green Capped Niagara’s Thrilling Win Over Iona With a Last-Second Three-Pointer in Overtime (James P. McCoy / Buffalo News)
Last year, Niagara finished 14-19, the first time in head coach Joe Mihalich’s 10-year tenure that he suffered consecutive losing seasons. Mihalich had taken the Purple Eagles to the NCAA Tournament in 2005 and 2007 and to the NIT in 2004 and 2009, but the team had fallen behind the pack in the MAAC in the three years since. The seeds of a resurgence were planted during last year’s losing campaign, as a host of young players started to find their footing in Division 1 college hoops. Having lost no one to graduation, Niagara was predicted to finish fifth in the MAAC in the preseason coaches’ poll. That seemed a fair, perhaps optimistic, assessment, but the clear light of hindsight makes a mockery of it.
What accounts for the turnaround? Mostly the maturation of Niagara’s all-sophomore backcourt: Juan’ya Green, Antoine Mason, and Ameen Tanksley. Last year, the trio showed that they had talent. This year, they’re showing that they can channel it into efficient offense. Green is actually averaging fewer points (16.5) than he did as a freshman (17.6), but that’s in part because he’s managed to corral his considerable talents and become a more effective facilitator. Coming out of high school, Green was known for his prodigious scoring ability, but questions lingered about his ability to create for his teammates. He’s answering those questions this year, increasing his assists (5.2 per game) and decreasing his turnovers (2.8 per game). With Green deferring more to his teammates, Mason, the son of former NBA player Anthony Mason, has stepped into the role of lead scorer. He’s upped his per-game average from 15.1 to a team-leading 18.7, but more importantly, he’s become a much more efficient scorer. He’s increased his field goal percentage from 38.2 to 44.6. He now shoots almost 80 percent from the free throw line, after shooting less than 65 percent last year, a significant development because of his knack for getting to the charity stripe. Tanksley, for his part, has also boosted his field goal percentage, from 38.6 to 45.7 and upped his scoring average into double-digits.
I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.
It was a wild week for the TO26’s best teams, as seven of the teams ranked in our top ten — including our top five — all suffered losses. With Gonzaga, Creighton, VCU, Butler, and UNLV all going down, who has a rightful claim on the number one ranking? Does New Mexico slide all the way from 6th to 1st after their win over Colorado State?
Not quite. Yes, Gonzaga lost to Butler in a game played without Rotnei Clarke, Butler’s leading scorer. But it was in a hostile road environment, and even under those conditions, Gonzaga had a victory in hand with just a few seconds left on the clock. And on Thursday, the Zags followed up the loss with a 20-point drubbing of conference rival BYU. So Mark Few’s men will continue to hold the top spot in our rankings. But all of the action elsewhere will produce a substantial reshuffling. Without further ado, on the substantially revised Top 10, our weekly Honor Roll, and a few games to keep an eye on as the week unfolds.
Danny Spewak (@dspewak) is an RTC contributor. He filed this report following Wednesday night’s Wichita State victory at Missouri State.
On March 6, 2009, Gregg Marshall walked to the podium in the bowels of the Scottrade Center in St. Louis and delivered perhaps the most difficult postgame press conference of his career. Minutes earlier, Creighton’s Booker Woodfox banked in a jumper as time expired in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, even though replays showed a possible clock malfunction. Mass chaos all around. Reporters were interviewing the Missouri Valley commissioner in the hallway and demanding answers. The Shockers had heroically rallied from 22 points down, but this controversial shot sent them to the CBI.
Carl Hall Looks Like a Grown Man, Much Like The Rest Of His Team. (Photo credit: AP Photo)
Marshall’s press conference got emotional right away. He told us how his young child was begging him to appeal to the commissioner’s office, pleading for something to be done to rectify the situation. There was nothing anybody could do. The Shockers lost the game, and in two seasons, Marshall’s record at Wichita State stood only at 28-37. He left Winthrop for this? Marshall had been the king of the Big South. He had qualified for seven NCAA Tournaments with the Eagles and thrashed Notre Dame in the first round of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Now, he was trying to re-establish himself and his style of play all over again in the tough-as-nails Missouri Valley. Mark Turgeon hadn’t exactly left him a perfect situation when Marshall had taken over in 2007, but this proud program with a rabid fan base was going to need to see some improvement. And soon.
Patrick Marshall is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference. You can also find his musings online at White & Blue Review or on Twitter @wildjays.
Looking Back
A Two-Team Race, Or Is It? Heading into last weekend, it looked to be a two team race between Creighton and Wichita State in the MVC. But don’t count Indiana State out of the mix. The Sycamores’ RPI is high right now and they have won three of their last four games. Also keep an eye out for Evansville, Bradley, and Northern Iowa to be a thorn in the contenders’ sides, hoping to score some upsets to keep things interesting. So far, the Bluejays and the Shockers have been able to mostly avoid those four teams, but Wichita State will play three of its next four games against Bradley, Indiana State and UNI. If you know anything about the Valley, anything can happen when two teams lace them up so this race is far from over yet.
Will Carl Hall’s Return Put Wichita State Over The Top? (Travis Heying/Wichita Eagle)
McDermott Continues To Light It Up: Doug McDermott continues to impress the nation with some extraordinary numbers. Since the start of 1996-97 season, no player has averaged more than 20 points per game while shooting better than 50 percent from the three-point line for an entire season. The Creighton junior is currently averaging 24.1 points per game and shooting 52.5% from beyond the arc. In addition, he is averaging 28 points per game and shooting 59.5 percent from deep in five road games this season. His offensive efficiency has continued in the last three games by shooting 62% from the field, 72% from three and averaging a ridiculous 31.6 points per game. He has already scored 29 points or more in seven games this season. He is without question a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate.
Hall Returns With Fire: Wichita State’s Carl Hall had been out the last several weeks with a thumb injury. Of the injuries that the Shockers have suffered this season, losing Hall hurt the most. After missing the first six games of conference play, he returned this past week and he was ready to play. The senior only scored two points but grabbed 10 rebounds in a victory over Illinois State, but against Creighton, Hall added the scoring back to his game by going for 17 points and 13 rebounds (including six offensive) to lead the Shockers to a narrow victory. The only thing he needs to shake the rust from is his free throw shooting. Hall went 3-of-8 in the two games, including a 1-of-6 disaster against Creighton after starting the season 20-of-23. He may be the difference-maker that Wichita needs if the Shockers are to win an MVC championship.
Power Rankings (Overall, Conference, Last Week)
Wichita State (17-2) (6-1) (2)–The Shockers sit in first right now based on their win over Creighton this past weekend. Do I think they are the better team? I guess I do for now. I will be watching to see how both Creighton and Wichita fare in their next games and how they react to last weekend’s result. Wichita State got a boost from the return of Hall to help offset his 8-of-20 shooting from the three-point line against the Bluejays. Their rebounding has been outstanding, out-boarding their opponent in each conference game this season. They are grabbing almost nine more boards each game than their opponent. Wichita State is now #14 in the RPI and is 6-1 against the top 100 and 3-0 versus the top 50. Read the rest of this entry »
The question of whether states other than Nevada will allow legalized sports gambling reached a key decision point on Tuesday as the US Department of Justice intervened in a case brought by the NCAA and the four major professional leagues against New Jersey disputing a 1992 law that prohibits betting on sports. The Garden State passed a law last year (signed by Governor Chris Christie) that would allow sports gambling in its casinos and race tracks statewide, but the MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL along with the NCAA, citing “significant harm” to their leagues, filed suit against the state questioning its constitutionality under federal law. Tuesday’s decision by the federal government to intervene on the side of the plaintiffs gives additional weight to the side that supports the ban. Although not unprecedented, it’s somewhat unlikely that the DOJ would stake its reputation in federal court on a case where it stands to come out on the losing side of the matter. As a result, if you live in New Jersey and are hankering for a legal method to place a wager on future Big East Tournament games involving league stalwarts South Florida and East Carolina, you may want to go ahead and book those annual March trips to Las Vegas for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t appear that you will have the option in New Jersey.
Harvard has been kind of under the radar this season after being the team du jour last season and part of that reason is because of the loss of Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry, who withdrew for school a year after they were implicated in a wide-reaching cheating scandal. We had not heard what the two were doing as they waited to return to school next year, but The New York Times was able to catch up with them. Both of them returned to their hometown with Casey working for a nonprofit group and Curry selling life insurance. It will be interesting to see how the two adjust to rejoining a Harvard team that they were expected to lead this season, but has grown to play without them.
We have reached the point of the season where John Gasaway publishes his weekly Tuesday Truths. Last week was technically the first week he did it, but there was so little data that I didn’t think it was worth linking to. For those of you who are not familiar with the column it looks at the difference in a team’s offensive and defensive points per possession to calculate an efficiency margin (more details here). In this week’s edition, Gasaway goes through the conference’s per his usual routine taking particular interest in Florida‘s dominance of the SEC. We will be completely honest that while we find the numbers interesting and somewhat enlightening we don’t find it to be quite the revelation that many of our colleagues seem to think the Tuesday Truths are.
For a different type of weekly recap, Pat Forde offers his Forde Minutes, which is similar to his Forde Yard Dash that he writes when he is covering college football. While this lacks the number-crunching of Gasaway’s Tuesday Truths, it offers an equally comprehensive look at what is happening in college basketball. Of course, since it relies more on words than numbers it has to work off a central theme and this week’s theme is Brad Stevens and his emotional reaction (or lack of) following Butler’s thrilling win on Saturday night. Forde also offers an all-encompassing look at the player of the year and freshman of the year of races as well as who is hot and who is not.
At the beginning of the season college basketball writers obsessed over the triangle of basketball power between Indiana, Louisville, and Kentucky. While that area may still be the strongest in the country (substituting Butler for Kentucky at the present time), Matt Norlander feels that the designation of best basketball state should go to the state of Kansas. In addition to boasting the always solid Jayhawks, the state also has two other potential powers in Kansas State and Wichita State. As Norlander points out part of the state’s strength is its impressive win percentage which is bolstered by only have three Division I teams in the state. As you can imagine there are a few states which have not taken too kindly to this analysis and you can see a sampling of their thoughts in the comment section.
If there was ever a day that could be used as prepping for the Thursday and Friday games of the NCAA Tournament, this past Saturday was that day. With 154 games taking place beginning at 11 AM and not wrapping up until much later in the evening with the magic that took place inside Hinkle Fieldhouse as Butler topped Gonzaga and some more games out west to round out the night, Saturday had it all. Saturday also had many implications for the RTC25 as there was a fair amount of movement in all directions. Michigan has climbed all the way back up to #1, Butler is a Top 10 team — after not even receiving votes in the preseason — two teams from the Missouri Valley are in the thick of things, and a total of eight teams are in the “ARV” category ranging from Cincinnati (once a Top 10 team itself) to Bucknell.
A whole lot to touch on…the Q n’ D after the jump…
Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.
The Weekend’s Lede. No Dominant Teams. The preseason talk about college basketball’s dearth of NBA talent was an easy crutch for “casual” sports fans. They took a quick glance at this year’s draft class, nodded in dismay, and decided the sport wasn’t worth their watch – that there wasn’t enough high-level lottery talent to make things interesting. That narrow thinking – and trust me, it’s out there – inverts what we value most about college hoops. Watching first-rounders dominate the sport is cool and all; Kentucky rolled through the SEC last season with three transcendent freshmen. You know what’s better? Unpredictability, parity, a diffuse top-tier. When there’s equality at the top of the sport, and number one rankings have one- or two-week expiration dates, strange and inexplicable things happen, leaving us with little recourse how or when to expect them. A new No. 1 was borne out of last week’s chaos, when Duke and Michigan fell in tough road spots. Louisville filled the void, a worthy presider over that prized distinction, built on an impenetrable defense and veteran savvy, one of the game’s most respected coaches, and an erratically effective lead guard. The Cardinals felt like they might have some staying power at the top of the polls. Many sang Louisville’s Final Four praises from the mountaintops. The Cardinals’ reign ended Saturday, at home to a familiar Big East contender, Syracuse. In this evolving college basketball season, enjoy your time at No. 1, because one week, maybe two, might be the natural limit.
Your Watercooler Moment. Hinkle Heroics.
When College Gameday released its schedule this summer, I remember looking at the Gonzaga-Butler opener with enormous anticipation. There were other games on the schedule that looked better on paper, but Gameday at Hinkle? That’s like college hoops euphoria, times 10. So on a wild day of games, with the nation’s no. 1 going down and a crop of other interesting developments happening at the same time, the nightcap needed to be something really special, something to put a bow on a super-loaded day of hoops. I should never have doubted the Bulldogs for a second, but I have to admit, Rotnei Clarke’s neck injury gave me pause. The Zags were too big, too deep, too talented. None of it mattered. This is what the Butler Bulldogs (not to be confused with the visitors from Spokane) do. They defy convention. They beat the Nation’s No. 1 team with three starters relegated to the bench in overtime, and with a little-used walk on hitting the game-winning layup. They play in a quaint little gym most famous for its place in a movie about high school basketball. They go to back-to-back National Championship games. They make Starbucks crowds collectively stare after jumping out of my seat to celebrate one of the craziest game-winning sequences in years. They are Butler. And man, do I wish they played on national television more often.
*We should have anticipated a spectacular finish after witnessing this in the pre-game festivities.
Your Second Watercooler Moment. MVC Shakeup.
By beating Creighton, Wichita State proved itself as the Bluejays’ chief competition in the MVC (Photo credit: AP Photo).
The biggest hurdle to Creighton’s undefeated MWC season came Saturday at Wichita State. The Bluejays are vastly improved last season, particularly on the defensive end, where they’ve allowed 0.93 points per trip compared to 1.01 in 2011-12. Not only did this team have the frightening offensive capability of Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, Ethan Wragge and Greg Echenique. It has a renewed commitment to stopping opponents on the opposite end of the floor. That’s where the Shockers thrive – per kenpom, their 89.5 defensive efficiency entering Saturday ranked 35th in the country – and they proved it Saturday by making life difficult for McDermott and co. all afternoon long. Dougie got his points (25), but not without a constant harassment on every catch, dribble and shot attempt. Wichita State and coach Gregg Marshall have overcome three key injuries along with massive roster turnover to field one of the better teams in the MVC. On Saturday, the now-healthy Carl Hall announced his official return (he played in Wednesday’s game against Illinois State but scored just two points) with a monster 17-13 double double. Combine that with his constant annoyance of McDermott in the lane, and it’s fair to say that Hall – out since December 20 – was the deciding factor for the Shockers. Creighton and Wichita are all knotted up atop the league standings. If both can survive February unscathed, the Mar. 2 rematch in Omaha will decide the regular season champion.
Also Worth Chatting About. Conference Milestones Abound.
Holding off Arizona for the entire Pac 12 season will be difficult, but Oregon has the right mix of toughness, experience and youth to keep their top spot in the standings (Photo credit: AP Photo).
In beating UCLA at Pauley Pavilion Saturday, Oregon reached a pretty cool new milestone. For the first time in 39 years, the Ducks are 5-0 in Pac-12 play. On it’s face, that doesn’t feel like a huge accomplishment; a soft early schedule and a minor upset or two could put any mediocre team in strong position to win its first five league games. Oregon did it the hard way. Not only did the Ducks take down streaking UCLA, they also handled title contender Arizona at home and a decent Arizona State team. There is nothing specious about their hot start. All five wins point to a legitimate conference frontrunner. Meanwhile, Ole Miss, the flavor of the week in the SEC (and the owner of one of the most emotionally charged players I’ve seen in years) turned in an even greater historical feat Saturday by beating Arkansas at home. It’s the first time the Rebels have moved to 4-0 in conference play since before World War II (1936-37), according to ESPN. It was hard to know how to measure these teams in the nonconference. Both took questionable losses – Ole miss to Middle Tennessee and Indiana State; Oregon at UTEP – and the precedent for recent success, in both cases, was mostly nonexistent. Now we know: Ole miss and Oregon are serious about winning their respective leagues. College basketball needs a bit of novelty in its assortment of power league champs – the Rebs and Ducks are here to deliver.
Your Quick Hits…
SEC Looks Sealed. If the Big 12 is a foregone conclusion, the SEC is a lecture on 20th century European history. Everyone knows how this story ends. Florida is the best team in the league, no question. The second-best, Missouri, ran into a buzzsaw in Gainesville Saturday, where Billy Donovan picked up his 400th career victory. Would the Tigers have put up a better fight with Laurence Bowers in the lineup? Yes. And might this game go the other way when these two teams meet in Columbia February 19? Maybe. But if you look at Florida’s body of work, and sift through their tempo-free stuff (the Gators have been a constant atop kenpom’s rankings), you see a balanced, experienced, multifaceted team with real national championship potential. Missouri, on the other hand, is something a partial byproduct of transfer hype and a natural fascination with high-paced offense – at least to me. Conference play will sort out the distinction, but right now, Florida stands alone on the SEC peak, with no one in near sight.
Heels Dug In Against Maryland. After a Jan. 10 home loss to Miami, UNC’s tournament hopes were quickly dwindling. There just wasn’t all that much on their profile, and anytime the Tar Heels played someone good – Indiana, Butler – they lost convincingly. A home win over UNLV aside, this was not one of Roy Williams’ better teams. Saturday’s win over Maryland didn’t convince me otherwise. What it did do is give UNC some bubble breathing room. The Tar Heels, now 2-2 in the ACC, hold victories over Florida State and the Terrapins, with a manageable five-game stretch on the horizon. The Tournament warnings were not premature, but the Heels are on solid footing as of this writing.
Stingy Longhorns Test Kansas. Offensively, Texas isn’t much to look at. It’s a bunch of incoherent freshmen still trying to learn Rick Barnes’ system, rudderless while their capable point guard waits out an NCAA eligibility jail sentence. But there’s one thing this UT team does really, really well. They guard. Kansas ran into the Longhorns excellent defense Saturday, ranked 13th in terms of points-per-possession. But for a courageous second-half comeback, headed by Ben McLemore’s 16 points, the Jayhawks would have taken their first Big 12 loss. In the end, Kansas had better players, so the outcome was nothing special. But there’s a larger concern with the Jayhawks here. For all the talk about the Big 12 being a one-man race, the Jayhawks aren’t letting on like the Final Four juggernaut they’re being touted as. To wit: over its last five games, Kansas has either been tested or looked plainly sloppy (Texas Tech) in all but one contest (Baylor). The Jayhawks are the best the Big 12 has to offer, but if they aren’t fully engaged, no matter the opponent, someone’s going to get before league play wraps up. Tuesday’s trip to Kansas State could be their biggest challenge from here on out.
MAC Race Gets Serious. It is one of the most casually overlooked leagues in all of college hoops, but you’d be remiss not to pay attention to the Ohio showdown brewing in the MAC. Akron, Kent State and Ohio U entered Saturday with undefeated league records. The Zips won a tight one at Kent State while the Bobcats held off Toledo at home to draw even at the top of the league standings. At 4-0, Akron and Ohio have two games to settle this thing. Jim Christian’s team, a proven giant killer come tourney time, is the favorite, but Akron has the edge inside with seven-footer Zeke Marshall, who had 17 points and 11 rebounds in Saturday’s win. As for NCAA Tournament considerations, at-large bids have long since fallen out of contention, so we should get a thrilling conference tourney. That doesn’t mean the conference race won’t be interesting to follow.
Lyons Keys ‘Cats Win In Arizona State Showdown. The Pac-12 has produced its fair share of surprises this season. One of them is Arizona State, who has turned a woeful 10-21 campaign last season into 14 wins in 2012-13 behind Jahii Carson’s electrifying point guard play and the remarkable development of center Jordan Bachynski. But from the looks of it, the Sun Devils aren’t ready to break into league title contention. After losing at Oregon last Sunday, ASU welcomed stateside older brother Arizona for a huge chance at a season-defining upset. The game was decided by the two most important players from either team, Carson and ‘Zona point guard Mark Lyons. Though both struggled with foul trouble, Lyons’ veteran savvy won out and played a huge part in helping Arizona keep pace with Oregon in the league title race. And by the way, doesn’t that have a weird ring to it? Oregon, first place?
The Purple Wildcats Are Ready For Their Shot. Any and all Big 12 conversation is funneled through the basic assumption that Kansas will waltz to another conference championship. Given what Bill Self has accomplished in Lawrence, that’s far from misplaced foresight. It could be very accurate. But if Kansas is going to stumble in league, state basketball stepchild K-State will be right there to assume the Big 12 throne. The Jayhawks’ win over Texas was an intriguing style contrast. The Longhorns gave KU a real scare in Austin, and Kansas State is prepared to do the same when they meet in Manhattan Tuesday night. Winning at Bramlage is a tall order, and this team is prepared to mimic Texas’ defensive efforts, only with better offense and a bigger homecourt advantage. (no offense, Texas). On Saturday, the Wildcats beat what might be the third best team in the Big 12, Oklahoma, thanks in large part to 20 points from Rodney McGruder. That’s a nice prelude to the biggest Big 12 game of the season.
The Best Big Ten Team You’re Not Hearing About. Judging Tom Izzo’s teams in the nonconference season is to discount the customary improvement Michigan State undergoes over the course of the conference season. The Spartans are quickly working out the kinks – a muddle big man rotation, Keith Appling’s poor shooting – and they picked up their biggest win of the season Saturday against a familiar Big Ten title contender, Ohio State. This year, the Spartans and Buckeyes aren’t quite on the same plane as Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan (at least not yet), but make no mistake, both teams will have a say in the league title chase before March. Michigan State needed this win; it has a brutal four-game stretch coming up: road trips to Wisconsin and Indiana, followed by home dates with Illinois and Minnesota. I wouldn’t put it past the Spartans to pull an even split, which – given the competition – would be a huge bonus for the stretch run.
… and Misses.
Neck Injury Overshadows Virginia Domination. One week after Butler guard Rotnei Clarke was sent flying head first into the basket stanchion after a hard foul on a fast break attempt, another serious neck injury occurred in Florida State’s game at Virginia. FSU forward Terrance Shannon was shuttled to nearby UVA medical center after colliding with Virginia’s Evan Nolte and laying motionless on the court for nearly 10 minutes. Team doctor Bill Hamilton diagnosed the injury as a neck sprain, but said Shannon regained full strength in his extremities, which is very good news. Whenever a neck or possible concussion is involved, any manner of deleterious consequences –brain trauma, paralysis – comes to mind. Fortunately, none of those things came about as a result of this particularly scary injury. Ryan appears to be ok. Unfortunately, the Seminoles managed just 36 points and had no one in double figures as the Cavaliers’ sturdy defense baffled Michael Snaer and co. into a 16-for-43 shooting night, including – get this – 1-for-15 from beyond the arc.
Temple Baffles. Again. Inexplicable variance is wired into the fabric of conference play. It makes every interleague clash interesting, whether because of familiarity of sluggishness or road trip fright or some combination therein. Temple is taking this theme to a new level this season. Consider the Owls’ last five games: near-upset of Kansas, loss at Xavier, easy win over Saint Louis, win at George Washington and – with 30 years of history stacked in its favor – a home loss to Saint Bonaventure (that’s without mentioning the weird Caniusius loss-Syracuse win sequence in December). And yes, the last note means exactly what you think it means. Before Saturday, Saint Bonaventure hadn’t won at Temple in three decades. The Owls are one of college basketball’s great mysteries. Right now, their inconsistency leaves them short of Butler and VCU, but we’ve seen this team knock off (Syracuse) and/or challenge (Kansas) some of the nation’s best outfits. They’re widely viewed as the best-chance league title threat behind the newcomers (Saint Louis, maybe?), but before Temple can even think about catching up to VCU and Butler, it needs to develop some level of consistency against middle or lower-echelon opponents.
Missing Key Guard, Broncos Stumble. There are no comfortable road trips in the Mountain West. Every game is a grind that demands your very best effort. It also demands a fully healthy roster, something Boise State wasn’t privileged to have for Saturday’s voyage to Air Force, where the Falcons dropped Boise to 1-2 in MW play. A concussion forced guard Jeff Elorriaga – who entered Saturday averaging 11.9 points and 3.5 rebounds per game, and who hit the game-winning buzzer-beater at Wyoming two weeks back – to miss the trip, and the Broncos labored without their dynamic perimeter scorer. Losing two in a row won’t knock you from this year’s league race, if only because the sheer breadth of quality – five NCAA bids is a conservative projection – will wear teams out over the next two months as they fight each other for standings positioning. Boise is in good shape; getting Elorriaga back on the court should do wonders.
More MWC Action: Rebs and San Diego State Go Down. Any casual assessment of the MW typically focuses on one of three teams: San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico. Only one of those teams made it through the weekend unscathed. This is nothing new in the MW – there’s so much equality, so many opportunities for “big wins”, it’s hard to pin down who the best two or three teams are. This week, UNLV and SDSU, long considered conference frontrunners, don’t look so good. But we could be singing a different tune next week. For me, the specifics don’t matter as much as the constant drama. In this league, there are no certainties, especially on the road. Arguably its two best teams took losses Saturday (UNLV at Colorado State and SDSU at Wyoming), and I’m not amazed or shocked in the slightest: you could have seen these road hiccups coming from a mile away. Besides, the Rams and Cowboys have proven themselves capable challengers in this deep conference.
Georgetown’s Ceiling. Scoring has been a huge stumbling block for the Hoyas all season. They’re converting just 0.99 points per possession, converting 66.2 percent from the line and shooting 33 percent from beyond the arc – all of those figures rank below the D-1 average. Georgetown can combat its offensive shortcomings with fantastic defense, and to date that’s how they Hoyas have won most of their games, but there comes a certain point when dragging along a woeful offense puts a major strain on your ability to win games. The Hoyas are hitting that wall. Now without suspended forward Greg Whittington, the offensive burden falls almost exclusively on Otto Porter. He scored 21 points against South Florida Saturday, well above his season average of 13.8, but it wasn’t enough to edge offensively-challenged South Florida. What’s alarming about this loss is that the Bulls, ranked 155th in adjusted offensive efficiency, are exactly the type of team, stylistically, Georgetown should have no trouble beating. Like the Hoyas, they can’t get much done on the offensive end. JTIII needs to invent new ways to manufacture offense. His team’s season depends on it.
Badgers Not To Be Fully Trusted Yet. The Indiana win was huge. It was a live testament to Bo Ryan’s timeless strategic brilliance. The Badgers throttled one of the nation’s best offenses in its deafening home arena and came away with one of the best wins the season to date. But as we often forget in the hectic landscape of conference play: one win does not a revolution make. In other words: Wisconsin is not to be anointed atop the Big Ten based off one major win. The Badgers remain, like the rest of the league, vulnerable to perilous road trips. Carver-Hawkeye Arena is no sanctuary for visiting teams, and the team that plays there – ranked 34th in Kenpom’s ratings entering Saturday – is no slouch, either. Bo Ryan’s team couldn’t lull the Hawkeyes into their slowdown game, and Iowa, after an 0-3 start in the Big Ten, has now won its last two. In the Big Ten, a winning streak of any length is an accomplishment.
Magic Wearing Off For Saint Louis. After the passing of coach Rick Majerus, Saint Louis quietly reeled off 10 consecutive wins, including games over Valparaiso and New Mexico. The Billikens looked as focused and locked-in as ever, and you started to get the sense their former coach’s tragic death was motivating them along the way. Then the Billikens lost at Temple, which is nothing to get upset about. But when you fall to Rhode Island at home, there’s reason for concern. Jim Crews had this team playing excellent basketball on both ends, but Saint Louis is at its best in grinding low-scoring affairs, where it can deflate the tempo and smother you on defense. The Rams shot 55 percent from the floor, 53 percent from three and hit 18-of-21 free throws. That’s not an SLU performance of recent vintage. The Billikens are still one of the A-10’s better teams, but if their swarming defense doesn’t produce its intended effect, they can’t keep up offensively.
Baylor Played Who? I’m all for scheduling good nonconference games in January and February. Saturday’s headliner at Hinkle FieldHouse is a prime example. But if you’re going to play someone out of league in the run of conference competition, play someone that classifies as a Division I athletic institution, or at least someone that’s somewhere within your competitive wherewithal. Don’t play someone like Hardin-Simmons, who – with all due respect its “Education Enlightened By Faith” – does not belong on a basketball court with Isaiah Austin and Pierre Jackson and Ricardo Gathers. College hoops should find new ways to curb these types of guarantee games. They don’t belong in November and December, and they definitely don’t belong in the middle of conference play.
Dunkdafied #1 In real time, it’s difficult to wrap your head around the enormity of the humiliation Nerlens Noel wrought upon Frankie Sullivan. Watch the video, but make sure to check out this photo, which freezes Noel as his midsection brushes Sullivan’s head.
More Notes From Around The Nation.
The CAA Stinks; Northeastern Doesn’t Care. In a league that saw its best team bolt to the brighter lights of the A-10 this offseason, the fighting JJ Bareas continue to dominate CAA opposition. Saturday’s win at Delaware pushed the Huskies’ conference record to 6-0. If not for Towson’s remarkable 10-win campaign – the Tigers won one game last season – Northeastern might go down as the biggest mid-major surprise in all of college hoops.
NEC Leader. Speaking of small New England schools riding 6-0 conference records, Bryant beat Wagner Saturday to extend its unbeaten streak. Keep in mind that the Bulldogs won just two games last season.
Pitt Scores First Home Conference Win. The Panthers have baffled tempo-free enthusiasts since the start of Big East play. Their efficiency profile depicts the ninth best team in the country, but a 2-3 start to conference play said otherwise. Saturday’s eight-point win over UConn is more in line with the Panthers’ projected capability.
Huskies Show Inconsistency. An impressive start to Pac-12 play came to a close Saturday when the Huskies, after sweeping through the Bay Area with wins over Cal and Stanford slipped at home against Utah. Whether this loss will be viewed as an errant data point or the start of something more sinister, I can’t really say. Not yet.
Mike Rice Needs To Chill. Earlier this season, Rutgers coach Mike Rice was suspended three games and docked 50 grand for reportedly throwing basketballs at his players during practices. There’s a fine line between having a stern hand and denigrating your players. Rice crossed that line, and he’d do well to bring his best behavior the rest of the season. On Saturday, in the heat of some questionable officiating during the closing moments of a three-point loss to Notre Dame, Rice lost his cool on the sidelines. You can’t blame the guy for lashing out in the heat of the moment, but this is an exceptional case. Rice can’t afford to risk further physical confrontation – with players, officials or anyone in between.
Summit League Opens Up For SDSU. The team everyone wants to see win the Summit League, South Dakota State, home to everyone’s favorite mid-major hero, Nate Wolters, can pull even with North Dakota State in the league standings after the Bison took a loss Saturday at Western Illinois. The Jackrabbits won at IUPUI.
Valpo Coasting Through Horizon. With UIC’s early hot start all but flamed out, Detroit and Wright State stood as Valpo’s chief competition in the Horizon league. The Crusaders toppled both over a three-day span. Butler may be gone, but Valpo is doing its best to keep the league’s reputation in good stead.
Harvard Challenges Memphis. At one point, Memphis’ at-large hopes were in real jeopardy. Harvard had erased a 20-point Tigers lead to go up by two inside the seven-minute mark in the second half. Josh Pastner’s team survived, but the shakiness doesn’t reflect well on their ability to avoid disaster in C-USA.
Can Anyone Catch Wichita or Creighton In The MWC? The answer to the bolded question: No. The Bluejays and Shockers are in a class of their own. Indiana State may be the best of the next group, and the Sycamores handled Evansville at home Saturday to stake their claim.
Maybe Charlotte’s Not That Good. I couldn’t make a definitive judgment on Charlotte before observing a decent sample size of conference competition. Saturday showed me all I needed to know: the nation’s 31st ranked defense, efficiency-wise, allowed Richmond to score 81 points while holding the 49ers to 61. Charlotte won’t contend in this version of the A-10.
More A-10 Miscellany. If Charlotte isn’t ready for the big boys at the top of the league, neither is UMass, who fell at home to George Washington Saturday. The way VCU and Butler look right now, you can’t lose these games to mid-to-low-level teams and expect to realistically vie for a top-three spot. Meanwhile, Xavier is forging on like a real A-10 competitor, beating La Salle at home Saturday to move to 4-0 in conference play, and providing yet another reminder of the fallacies of counting out Xavier early in the season.
Lemon Buzzer-Beater Lifts Bradley Over Missouri State. When you look back on the wild roller coast ride that was Saturday’s hoops slate, you’re going to find it hard to remember every game. More likely than not, any mention of the MVC will conjure up Wichita State’s upset over Creighton, just like the word “buzzer-beater” will immediately bring you to Roosevelt Jones’ last-second heave for Butler. But buzzer-beaters are buzzer-beaters, and this one – though not relevant in terms of conference championship races or College Gamedays – is awesome. Walt Lemon Jr. of Bradley beats Missouri State at the buzzer on an off-balanced runner, with the added bonus of a rare bank-swish.
West Virginia Needs Work. One of the best and most well-respected coaches in college basketball, Bob Huggins, is praised for his consistency and timeless winning (710 wins over more than 30 years of coaching). You expect certain things from his teams: toughness, good defense and rebounding – you know, Hugginsian things. I’m starting to get the sense his team this season, who got shredded at Purdue Saturday (79-52) to fall under .500 (8-9), just isn’t very good.
So Much For Notre Dame’s Home Advantage. The Irish’s biggest strength under Mike Brey isn’t something tangible or calculable. It’s a structural entity, located in South Bend, IN. The Joyce Center is one of the tougher places to play in the country, only this season, it has lost some of its luster. UConn won there last week, and on Saturday, Rutgers fell three points short of handing the Irish their second home loss of the season.
Service Academies Engage In Battle. The football side of the Army-Navy rivalry is a habitual rite of Fall, one of those games folks will flip on for no other reason than the namesakes themselves. The basketball aspect is less historically contrived, but let us not overlook the Midshipmen’s nine-point win Sunday, which snapped a six-game losing streak. Sometimes, all it takes is a little patriotic motivation to snap a downward spiral.
Tough Loss For Villanova. Some people – slightly delusional, maybe – had started to believe Villanova could make a run at an at-large berth this season. A seven-game December win streak perpetuated this idea, but the Wildcats are starting to realize they aren’t tourney material. Get run at home against Pitt? Sure. Lose at Providence (Saturday), before games against Louisville and Syracuse? That’s not going to help your chances.
NC State Wobbles, But Survives. After upsetting Duke at home, some believed NC State was ready to springboard back to the top of the rankings, where many believed it belonged in the preseason. Others remained tentative. After Sunday’s escape at Clemson, which followed Wednesday’s one-point loss at Maryland, measured caution is the best mode of analysis for this hyper-talented but wildly erratic team.
Alabama Resurfacing In SEC. What once looked like a patented Anthony Grant team – physical defense, superb rim protection, steady offense – fell off the map in December. The Tide are finding themselves in SEC (considering the depth of competition in the league, that’s not a huge compliment), having won three of four to start the conference season (they beat Texas A&M at home Saturday). On Tuesday, Kentucky visits Tuscaloosa.
Bruins Taking OVC By Storm. One of the most underrated realignment moves of the offseason was Belmont’s decision to join the OVC. They’re wasting no time finding their bearings in a new league. Saturday’s win over Tennessee State, previously sitting in first place in the west division, gave Belmont its sixth win in conference play and bumped the Bruins to the top of the division standings.
UIC Embarrassed. The early success of UIC started to die out weeks ago. On Saturday, the Flames’ reached a new nadir. Facing Detroit in a big Horizon matchup, UIC lost by 51 points. This was a nice story early in the Fall, but it’s looking more and more like the Flames are little improved from last season’s eight-win squad.
Hoosiers Fight Off Northwestern. The Wisconsin loss primed all sorts of Monday-morning quarterback-type analysis on Tom Crean’s poor adjustments to Bo Ryan’s pace-averse gameplan. Crean ran into more problems Sunday in Evanston, when the Wildcats 1-3-1 took IU out of its offensive rhythm and forced the Hoosiers to make key free throws in the waning moments to seal the win and stay unbeaten on the road in conference play.
Buffaloes Snap Skid. Losing three of five following the infamous Sabatino Chen Arizona loss gave the impression the Buffaloes didn’t recover, whether emotionally or physically, from that crushing defeat. It was important they ended their losing ways at Washington State (never an easy place to get a win) Saturday night. Tad Boyle’s team made easy work of the Cougars. Next up: winnable home games against Stanford and Cal.
A Home Win For Cincy. The weird part about Cincinnati’s recent three-of-four losing skid wasn’t so much the level of competition – New Mexico is as tough and aggressive as they come; Saint Johns is green but talented; Notre Dame has hit the skids lately, but by no means a weak team – but the location. Cincinnati dropped all three games at home. It followed up with consecutive road wins at Rutgers and Depaul, and on Saturday reclaimed Fifth Third Arena by nipping Marquette in overtime. It’s good to be home….when you’re winning.
USU Doesn’t Look Like MW Material. If Utah State plans to compete in the Mountain West next season, it’s going to need to adopt a new attitude for conference play. After opening the season 14-1, the Aggies have dropped consecutive WAC games, including Saturday’s loss to Denver. USU now sits two games out of first place. Mountain West competition could bring a rude awakening.
Dunkdafied #2. In one of the most riveting individual turnarounds in any game this season, Orange guard Michael Carter-Williams more than made up for his early turnover and ballhandling woes to make some crucial plays in crunch time. This steal and dunk may have been the most important of them all.
The Weekend’s All Americans.
First Team
Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati (NPOY) – The Bearcats are going to struggle scoring the ball all season. Kilpatrick, who finished with 36 points in an OT win over Marquette, needs to carry the load.
Michael Lyons, Air Force – Beating Boise State was a huge step for the Falcons, but it would have never happened without Lyons’ 37-point performance.
Nerlens Noel, Kentucky – The natural comparisons to Anthony Davis were unfair, but Noel – who put up 10 points, nine rebounds, seven blocks and one huge dunk against Auburn – is starting to show why he was the most highly-rated prospect in the class of 2012.
Mike Muscala, Bucknell – With so many good games Saturday, it was easy to overlook Muscala’s 27-point, 15-rebound double double against Lafayette.
Isaiah Canaan, Murray State – The Racers may not be the best team in the OVC this season – Belmont holds that title, for now – but Canaan is still one of the best guards in the country. On Saturday, he scored 22 points, notched nine assists and seven steals in a win over SIU-Edwardsville.
Second Team
Shavon Shields, Nebraska – The future is brighter in Lincoln than the Huskers’ 1-5 Big Ten start would indicate, and Shields (29 points, 10-of-11 from the field) could be a big part of coach Tim Miles’ plans going forward.
Darien Brothers, Richmond – The 20-point smackdown of Charlotte, one of the nation’s better defenses, was nice. Brothers’ 39 points and eight rebounds was nicer.
Jack Cooley, Notre Dame – It took all of Cooley’s 19 points and 10 rebounds for Notre Dame to avoid a crushing home loss to Rutgers.
Cody Zeller, Indiana – When a 14-point halftime lead was cut to five, and Indiana couldn’t figure out Northwestern’s 1-3-1 defense, Zeller helped IU survive by not only excelling in a big way on the glass (13 rebounds) but pouring in 21 points.
Ray McCallum, Detroit – It’s going to take a few Valpo upsets, and errorless play the rest of the way, for Detroit to make a run at the Crusaders in the Horizon. McCallum might be the league’s best player. Here’s to hoping we get more performances of this ilk – 25 points, seven assists, five rebounds.
Tweet Of The Weekend. These storybook endings have become standard operating procedure for the Bulldogs. What gets lost in the celebration of the moment is the 40 minutes that preceded Roosevelt Jones’ miraculous game-winner. Again the Bulldogs were pitted against a more capable opponent on a national stage, and again Brad Stevens had his players in all the right spots, doing all the right things to nullify Gonzaga’s athletic and size advantages. I think it’s time we think about modifying the “cinderella” narrative and realize Butler’s true identity. There’s nothing fake or inherently magical about this team. The last-second heroics adds to the mystique and the improbability of it all, but in truth, this is an elite team led by one of the best coaches in the country.
The idea that Butler is some cuddly mid major dominated by the red and white-clad state school – the one it beat on a neutral floor earlier this season – is grounded less in truth and more in national media fabrication. The Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the country. The Gonzaga win finished with a flourish, but the actual game was a brilliantly-devised defensive slog – Stevens knew his team couldn’t match the Zags bucket for bucket in a high-paced shoot out. So he slowed it down, forced Gonzaga to play an ugly game and trusted his team’s mental and physical discipline down the stretch. The Jones buzzer-beater was great theater, but it is not the entire story.
One’s a fluke, two’s a trend, but always being the better & more-prepared team in crunchtime of a must-win is no fluke. I see you, #Butler.
I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.
After a one-week hiatus, we are back and just in time for a veritable orgy of great college hoops matchups today. Yes, there is Louisville v. Syracuse, Florida v. Missouri, Oregon v. UCLA, and Ohio State v. Michigan State. But things get no less interesting as you move down to the mid-major level, where several compelling matchups featuring conference contenders will unfold. Before we get to the Top 10, let’s take a look at what’s on tap today:
Gonzaga at Butler — The nation’s two Cinderella darlings will square off at the storied Hinkle Fieldhouse in a made-for-TV (yes, ESPN College Gameday will be in the house) contest. It will be the final game of Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule and, arguably, its toughest. The loss of Rotnei Clarke to a frightening neck injury will take some of the luster off of this matchup, as Butler will be playing without their leading scorer. The task will be no easier on the other end of the Court, as the Bulldogs will have to contend with a potent Gonzaga frontcourt, led by 7-footer Kelly Olynyk, who has emerged into a bona fide All-American candidate. But as we all know, being the underdog suits Brad Stevens just fine.
Creighton at Wichita State — Doug McDermott has wowed the nation over the past week with a pair of 30-point games, and between his dominance and Creighton’s three-point shooting, the Bluejays’ offense has become quite difficult to stop. But if there’s a team in the MVC who can do it, it’s Wichita State. The Shockers have the best defense in the league, which will have the added boost of a raucous home crowd for this premier matchup. The Shockers’ strong, quick guards will challenge Creighton at the other end, and Cleanthony Early might prove a tough matchup for McDermott. Carl Hall is also back in the lineup for the Shockers, so both teams will be at full strength.
Siyani Chambers Is Having An Outstanding Freshman Year (Anthony Nesmith/CSM/Cal Sport Media/AP Images)
Harvard at Memphis — With Conference USA muddling through a down year, this could be be Memphis’ toughest opponent of the 2013 calendar year. The Crimson have turned in a quality season despite the unexpected one-year withdrawals of senior leaders Brandyn Curry and Kyle Casey due to an academic cheating scandal. Much of the credit for that goes to freshman point guard Siyani Chambers, who is fifth in the country in minutes per game. Tommy Amaker has put a great deal of faith in the young man, but he has rewarded him with a 31% assist rate, 50% three-point shooting average, and 88% FT shooting average. Chambers will lock horns with Joe Jackson, who has steadied himself this season to become a reliable scorer and team leader. The senior point guard has hit double-digits in points in 12 straight games, the longest mark of his college career.
Western Illinois at North Dakota State — North Dakota State has been one of the great underreported stories of the season, rolling up a 16-3 record and supplanting South Dakota State as the Summit League’s favorite. But Western Illinois has also creeped to the top of the league standings, just a game behind NDSU at 6-1. The Leathernecks are led by an inside-out combo of big man Terrell Parks (13.9 ppg, 9.4 rbg) and do-everything senior guard Ceola Clark. Clark is an excellent defender, and he’ll need to be at his best to help stop a North Dakota State that is a well-oiled, methodical, efficient machine. Marshall Bjorkland, the Bison’s 6-8 junior, is arguably the most efficient scorer in the country. He leads the nation in effective FG percentage (72.4%) and is fourth in true shooting percentage (71.2%).
Utah State at Denver — Louisiana Tech remains at the top of the WAC standings after holding off Idaho on Thursday night, but these two squads are just one loss behind them. So tonight’s game has a lot riding on it. Expect a low-scoring contest between two of the lowest tempo teams in the country. Royce O’Neale and Chris Udofia lead Denver’s Princeton offense, which wears down opponents with movement and relies heavily on the three-point shot. Utah State will look to Preston Medlin, who leads the team with 16.3 points per game, and center Jarred Shaw who gets lots of touches in Stew Morrill’s offense.
College of Charleston at Davidson — Charleston will have a chance to move into a tie atop the Southern Conference South standings with a win at Davidson. They’ll be led by their backcourt combo of Andrew Lawrence and Anthony Stitt, while their hosts will rely more heavily on their frontcourt tandem of De’Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen. Davidson can fall in love with the three-point shot to their detriment. They’re better when they get the ball to the versatile Brooks and Cohen. Getting the ball in the basket won’t be easy against Charleston, which has a pretty good defense anchored in the middle by Adjehi Baru.
Belmont v. Tennessee State — You would think that this game between the OVC’s two undefeated teams would lose its luster with the absence of Tennessee State’s star big man, Robert Covington, except for one thing — they’ve won every one of their six OVC games without him. Covington went down with a torn meniscus in a December 18 trip to Middle Tennessee State that the Tigers went on to lose by 38 points. At that point, they were 5-7 on the season but they’ve reeled off seven straight since and now sit atop the OVC East standings. But they may need more than the Ewing Effect when they travel across town to face off with Belmont. The switch from the A-Sun to the OVC hasn’t dimmed the Bruins’ ability to dominate their conference competition.
So there it is, a day-long feast for the glutton who craves mid-major hoops. We move on, now, to the updated Top 10 rankings, our weekly (starting this week) Honor Roll, and a few more games to keep an eye on as the week unfolds.
Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.
The top teams in several conferences go head-to-head and a non-conference mid-major battle in the midwest should provide a spectacular weekend of college hoops. Let’s get to the breakdowns.
#6 Syracuse at #1 Louisville – 4:00 PM EST, Saturday on ESPN (*****)
Jim Boeheim and Rick Pitino Meet on Saturday Again…
The cream of the Big East crop lock up in what should be an epic defensive battle. This may be the best defensive match-up we will see all season. Jim Boeheim’s match-up zone versus Rick Pitino’s press will be fun to watch. Louisville is known for its ability to create lots of turnovers, but Syracuse is almost just as good at causing teams to make mistakes. Additionally, Syracuse blocks a bunch of shots and locks down the perimeter. Louisville counters with its own shot-blocker deluxe in Gorgui Dieng. The question for Syracuse is how they will break the Louisville press — look to see if they use their length to make passes over the top of the Cardinals’ defense to get down the court. Also, watch the guard match-up between Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith of Louisville. Triche and Carter-Williams have a significant size advantage that could make scoring from the Louisville backcourt limited, although Smith just seems to find ways to score anyway. Ultimately, this game will come down to whose defense plays better, but this game is shaping up to be a classic.
#17 Missouri at #8 Florida – 2:00 PM EST, Saturday on ESPN (****)
Florida is coming off a dominant win against Texas A&M and is beginning to separate itself from the rest of the SEC. A win by Missouri on the road would be huge for the Tigers as they head into a stretch of games against the bottom tier of the league. Missouri needs to find a way to control the offensive boards without Laurence Bowers available if they are going to have a shot at winning this game. The Gators have been one of the toughest teams to shoot against this season, so don’t expect the Tigers to get a lot of great looks. However, as one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, the Tigers have a chance if they can get put-backs and tip-ins. The key will be the battle down low between Alex Oriakhi and Patric Young so pay close attention to those two big men battling inside. Also, keep an eye on Missouri’s perimeter defense. Florida is taking 40% of its total shots from three — if the Gators’ shooters are hitting from the outside, it’s going to be tough sledding for Missouri in its first SEC trip to Gainesville.
Oregon at #21 UCLA – 4:00 PM EST, Saturday on CBS (****)
The Pac-12 is looking like a three team battle between Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon. With the Ducks already knocking off the Wildcats, they can make a huge statement early in the conference season with a road win against the Bruins. It won’t be easy, however, as UCLA has quietly put together a 10-game winning streak including back-to-back road wins against Utah and Colorado. Keep a close eye on turnovers in this game. Oregon is turning the ball over frequently at a rate of over 21% of its possessions. We have seen road teams get down early recently because of multiple mistakes in a hostile environment. If the Bruins can create turnovers early with some tough defense, it will make things very difficult for the Ducks in Pauley Pavilion. Also, watch the rebounding numbers. The Ducks are a far superior team on the glass at both ends. UCLA’s Kyle Anderson and the Wear brothers need to box out. Rebounding will keep Oregon in the game and could prove to be the difference if they are able to avoid turnovers.
Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.
Tonight’s Lede. The MW Rocks. On a night when San Diego State confirmed its allegiance to the Mountain West, further cratering any hopes of Big East survival, the league gave us two huge examples of why it is as exciting and high-quality as just about every other hoops consortium this side of the Big Ten. Four teams, all riding NCAA Tournament trajectories, met in frenzied campus gyms, and on both occasions the road team held on for close wins. New Mexico (at Boise State) and UNLV (at San Diego State) will walk away smiling from two brutally demanding match-ups on nights when they could have just as easily flailed under the heat of road stop in a perilous league. Beating conference rivals is one thing. Doing it on the road is another step of achievement. Tonight’s results don’t tell the whole story. These four teams, along with a crop of other solid outfits, will bang it out over the next two months, frequently shaking up the standings along the way. It’s way too early to nominate a league front-runner, because as impressive as UNLV and New Mexico’s wins were, the conference road is far too hazardous to survive unscathed. Each of these teams will probably lose before conference play concludes. And that’s what makes this year’s Mountain West the league’s best version in years. The quality depth, combined with a bona fide upper-tier, gives the MW everything any “power” league could ever want and more. It has national contenders bound for high seed-lines, plus a nice mix of bubble aspirants, and a bottom echelon that, when you really dig in, doesn’t offer any true “guarantee” wins (Nevada?). This has the feel of a golden age in in the West Coast’s best league, and the best part is, we’re just getting started.
Your Watercooler Moment. A Win Maryland Couldn’t Afford To Squander.
For NC State, the last four days have been a polarizing tour on the court-rushing circuit. On Saturday, the Wolfpack sacked then-No. 1 Duke at home. A frivolous celebration ensued, a wheelchair-tethered legend was born, and the Wolfpack’s season-long overrating was henceforth marked a misnomer (or at least an exaggeration). The celebration was short-lived, for a tough match-up at Maryland loomed, not to mention a nasty history of post-Duke/UNC upset failures (chronicled by the Charlotte News and Observer Wednesday). And NC State wasn’t just walking into any Maryland team. It was walking into a Maryland team reeling after a two-game losing streak and a national piling-on against its cushy non-conference schedule, which the Terrapins devoured for 13 straight wins prior to ACC play. The Terrapins had a gaudy record, but with no wins of substance to speak of, this was as big as home league opportunities come in mid-January. Roughly two hours after tip, a different breed of red swarmed the NC State players, this time to celebrate the Wolfpack’s defeat, and Alex Len’s improbable game-winning dunk/volleyball spike at the buzzer that caused it. Losing in College Park is no sin – the Terrapins, desperate circumstance aside, are a big, long, athletic team with talent all over the floor. Just because NC State took a tumble on the road in league play doesn’t mean its shining moment in Raleigh four days prior is in anyway diminished or marginalized. The Wolfpack remain a very real challenger at the top of the ACC, which after Duke remains murky and undecided. NC State belongs near the top, even after Wednesday night’s loss.
Tonight’s Quick Hits…
Canes Survive. It is unreasonable to expect Miami to stroll unbeaten through ACC competition without its star center. That’s what it has managed to do though, stacking wins over Georgia Tech, UNC and Maryland, and it continued the trend Wednesday night at Boston College. This game was different than the others in that Miami was forced to scratch and claw and go all out for 40 minutes, needing four Durand Scott free throws to push them past the Golden Eagles, but the result is no different. Miami won, and that’s the bottom line. Any league road trip is a dangerous proposition; that Miami survived, despite not playing anywhere near its best basketball, says a lot about this team’s late-game poise. Let’s focus more on what Miami avoided, and less on the optics of a “close” win over an ACC bottom-feeder. The Hurricanes continues to impress, and with a week off before welcoming Duke to Coral Gables, you can bet Jim Larranaga’s team will be ready to go. Read the rest of this entry »
