It’s all over in Vancouver, and we admit that when there was no college hoops to be found, we caught a couple hours of it.  So we’ll sort of miss those tape-delayed images of Shaun White doing tricks, Bode Miller occasionally zooming down hills, Apolo Ohno whizzing around ovals, and Lindsey Vonn doing…well, doing just about anything. But this month, above all others, belongs to college basketball.  Welcome to March, people...

1. Even though Philadelphia University’s Herb Magee is reeling him in for this particular title, Northern State’s Don Meyer is considered the winningest NCAA men’s basketball coach of all time because the NCAA counts ALL wins at all four-year colleges as long as the coach spent at least ten years at NCAA schools.  Meyer, who announced a week ago that he would retire at the end of this season, coached his final game on Saturday night — a loss to Southwest Minnesota State.  Meyer retires with a record of 923-324. Much respect, sir.  Godspeed and good health to you.
2. Temple got seven threes from Juan Hernandez in leading Temple to a 65-53 win over La Salle on Sunday, but the victory didn’t just improve the Owls’ record to 24-5 and keep them in a tie with Xavier atop the Atlantic 10 (both 12-2).  Their perfect 4-0 record against the other member schools won them the Big 5 title for this year.  If you don’t think that means anything to anyone, consider the Big 5 creed: “They say there is no real prize for winning the Big 5.  They must not be from Philly.”
3. A day ahead of his team possibly taking over the top spot in the rankings, Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson is enjoying the ride, and admits that he never could have predicted that the Orange would have ever been considered the #1 team in the land this year in a Skype interview he did with Fox Sports’ Jeff Goodman on Sunday.
4. In an article by Lexington Herald-Leader writer Jerry Tipton, Kentucky chief John Calipari claims that a couple of his players were “sleepwalking” through the whole game.  He doesn’t specifically name the somnambulists, but — careful not to take anything away from the Volunteers’ effort — he cites a combination of the quick turnaround from Thursday’s late game against South Carolina and (more alarmingly) what he feels is inexperience among some of his players in preparing themselves for important games.  Given Calipari’s recent statement about just wanting to “get on to the tournament,” it’s a legitimate question to ask:  has ennui crept into the Wildcat camp?
5. Seriously, Steve Alford?  Yes, you are hearing correctly, Alford really does call Jonathan Tavernari that name right at the end.  This sure makes the chance of a New Mexico-BYU rematch in the finals of the Mountain West tournament an exciting prospect.  In the meantime, maybe someone can get Alford to echo his mentor by saying, “If Tavernari wants to sit down and talk with me…I’ll explain things to him!”  Come on, Coach.  You’re better than this.

Syracuse Poised to Move to #1.  Remember the paucity of insanity we were lamenting in this space last weekend?  No longer.  Although the calendar still officially says February, March arrived in earnest on Saturday.  In what was probably the single best weekend of the entire college hoops season (and hopefully portends a month of craziness), the top three teams in the media/coaches polls were vanquished.  By 2:15 pm Saturday afternoon, #2 Kentucky had lost in Knoxville; four hours later, #1 Kansas had dropped its second game of the year in Stillwater; and by the same time on Sunday evening, #3 Purdue had joined the others with a loss.  In an 0range-themed weekend with Tennessee and Oklahoma State doing damage, it is literally the Orange, as in #4 Syracuse, who stands to move to the top of the polls for just the second time during the regular season in its long and illustrious history (SU held the top spot for six weeks in 1989-90).  And why not?  The beatdown that Jim Boeheim’s team put on #8 Villanova on Saturday night was downright clinical in its division of labor and efficiency.  Six of Boeheim’s seven “starters’ contributed double figure points; five of them grabbed seven or more rebounds; and, four offered three or more dimes for their efforts.  If you focus on stopping Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku (17/9/3 blks) burns you.  If you take away Andy Rautins, Scoop Jardine (16/7 assts) picks him up.  Rick Jackson?  Kris Joseph (16/9/3 assts).  Syracuse has an answer for every problem, and their zone, while perhaps not the best in college basketball history as Bob Knight said, is awfully good.  The Orange have met every major challenge thrown at them this year, and when you take a look at their two losses (Pittsburgh and Louisville at home) you start to think that maybe they weren’t as mentally prepared for those games as they should have been, because in every one of their “big” games this year, they’ve been virtually flawless.

A Record On-Campus Crowd Saw SU Dominate Villanova (P-S/Lauren Long)

As For the Top Three…  We’re not going to read too much into the losses that #1 Kansas and #2 Kentucky took on the road this weekend.  Even great teams lose road games once in a while, and both Tennessee and Oklahoma State are good enough teams to do some damage in March (more discussion on both games in the conference recaps below).  However, #3 Purdue isn’t getting off so easily.  We already knew that Matt Painter’s team would continue to fight and claw in their inimitable style without the services of Robbie Hummel, but the Boilers got completely pushed around today (-28 rebounds) by the bigger, stronger Michigan State Spartans and their offense was a complete disaster without the versatile forward in the lineup (30% from the field; 22% from deep).  How does the NCAA Selection Committee fairly evaluate this team?  They’re likely to win their final two games against Indiana and Penn State, which would put them at 26-4 overall and 14-4 in the Big Ten with a 3-1 record sans Hummel.  But Ohio State and Michigan State are likely to also finish at 14-4 in the Big Ten, which means that the winner of the Big Ten Tourney will have the inside track on a #1 seed, or at worst, a top #2 seed.  But what if Purdue loses in the B10 quarters or semis?  Are they a #2 seed or a #3 seed or lower?  The resume is strong, but they’re just not the same team as they were with Hummel in the lineup.  Honestly, we would wager that the Committee is secretly hoping that Purdue drops one or both of this week’s games to the bottom-feeders of the conference to make their decision to demote them more defensible.

Conference Recaps.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#2 Kentucky @ #17 Tennessee -12:00 pm on CBS (****)

With a win today, the Wildcats will win the SEC regular season title (John Calipari apparently doesn’t care), and it will also keep them in contention for the overall #1 seed in the tournament.  It will be anything but an easy victory as the Volunteers gave the Wildcats a scare when they meet a few weeks ago in Lexington.  The Volunteers were leading midway through the second half, but scored just 10 points in the final 10 minutes, four of which came in garbage time.  This time, the game will be in Knoxville, where Tennessee is 13-1 on the year including a victory over #1 Kansas (their only loss to date).  UT’s drought against Kentucky should have come as no surprise, considering the Vols have the 88^th best offense according to Ken Pomeroy.  However, they will need to improve upon their last performance (they shot below 40 % against Florida on Tuesday) if they want have any chance in this game.  Statistically Kentucky is not as imposing as people may think, as the Wildcats don’t rank in the top 10 in either offensive or defensive efficiency, but they manage to get it done in the win column–the most important statistic. Given Wayne Chism’s recent struggles and their ugly loss against the Gators, look for Kentucky to push their winning streak to nine games.

The man who could be Governor of Kentucky

#12 New Mexico @ #11 BYU – 4:00 on Versus (*****)

Versus will finally be making their debut on RTC’s Set Your Tivo feature, and they picked a great game to do so.  Brigham Young has won four straight games, and New Mexico hasn’t lost since January 9th.  New Mexico has been under-appreciated this year, as they rank lower than BYU despite more wins in the conference, a victory in a head-to-head match-up, and a higher SOS.  The RPI, which ranks UNM at #11, also has their stock dropping despite 12 straight wins.  If they are going to prove they belong in the top 10, they are going to have to beat a BYU team that is nearly impossible to beat in Provo.  They have won 21 straight games at the Marriot Center, which holds over 22,000 seats.  In the last matchup in Albuquerque, the Lobos led virtually the entire game, but were never able to push the lead to double digits.  The Cougars scored eight points in the final two minutes to push the game to the brink, but thanks to an equally raucous crowd at The Pit, New Mexico survived.  BYU’s Jimmer Fredette scored 27 points in that contest, and since that loss, he has been on a tear.  With the exception of a 43-point win against Air Force, he has scored at least 20 points in every game, and has two different games in which he scored 36 points.  New Mexico, which ranks just 78^th in defensive efficiency, will have their hands full against a BYU team that ranks third in the nation in three-point field goal percentage.  Given Brigham Young’s home record and their #5 Pomeroy ranking, I think BYU will wrapping up the MWC title today with a win.

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RTC Live will be coming to you from downtown Providence Tuesday night for a battle between a top-five Syracuse powerhouse and an upset-minded Providence team. Syracuse enters play tonight fresh off their monumental victory last Thursday at Georgetown but enter the Dunkin Donuts Center hoping to avoid a letdown in their sandwich game between the emotional win over the Hoyas and this coming Saturday’s hyped visit from Villanova to the Carrier Dome. The Orange are led by sensational Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson and the pinpoint long-range shooting of Andy Rautins. Productive big men are also imperative to Jim Boeheim’s success this season from the punishing Arinze Onuaku to the athleticism of Kris Joseph. Providence is hoping they can post a memorable win akin to their stunning upset over #1 Pittsburgh in 2009 at the Dunk. If the Friars win tonight, they must defend in the halfcourt and shoot well from outside, most notably Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks. Also, keep an eye on how sophomore Jamine Peterson handles the forwards of Syracuse down in the post. We could have a high-scoring, high-flying, up and down marathon tonight in the Big East. Hope you’ll join me courtside for Syracuse vs. Providence here on RTC Live tonight at 7 PM.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#5 Syracuse @ #10 Georgetown – 7 pm on ESPN (*****)

Wes Johnson Looks to Go 2-0 vs. the Hoyas (D. Nett)

We mentioned last week that Syracuse’s matchup against Louisville could be a trap game with Georgetown on the horizon, and the Orange responded with a 60-point performance in a home loss.  Now Syracuse will get their chance to play the Hoyas who are coming off an equally embarrassing defeat.  Although Georgetown had won three of their previous four games (with wins against Duke and Villanova), they then gave up an easy game at Rutgers who sits at just 4-8 in the Big East.  Both teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament, but a win here could help a team improve their tournament status as well as help build their confidence back up.  This game could be high scoring, as the Orange rank #1 in the country in field goal percentage, while Georgetown ranks third.  However, the last time these teams met at the Carrier Dome, the Orange scored just 73 points despite 53% shooting, while the Hoyas failed to score 30 points in either half.  Syracuse has a tall lineup, but they rank second in assists per game and can run the court with almost any team.  The biggest hindrance to the Orange is the lingering effect of Wesley Johnson’s injury to his back/hip.  He is now just 13-33 since the Providence game on February 2 when he flipped in mid-air and landed hard on the court.  To get a feel for how effective Johnson was before the injury, he was 33-61 in his previous five games.  The Hoyas have shown the ability to light up great teams at home this season, so they certainly have a great opportunity to end Syracuse’s undefeated road streak.

#16 Wisconsin @ Minnesota – 9 pm on ESPN (***)

Minnesota is now certainly on the outside looking in after a recent loss to Northwestern, and will need to go nearly 6-0 in the remaining games if they want to dance in a few weeks.  The Gophers are just 3-7 since January 5, and are eighth in the conference behind other probable NIT teams like Michigan.  Wisconsin missed a golden opportunity to jump atop the Big Ten standings with a loss against Illinois last week, but they are still just 1.5 games behind Michigan State for the conference lead.  Minnesota is going to have to play one of their best games of the season tonight, because the Badgers won’t beat themselves.  They are the best team in America in turnovers per game, and are in the top five in opponents’ points per game.  Thanks to solid efficiency on both ends of the court, the Badgers actually rank third in Ken Pomeroy’s overall standings.  Minnesota, on the other hand, ranks just #64 in offensive efficiency, and they have just three reliable threats on offense.  Although UM’s Lawrence Westbrook averages 13.4 points per game, he shoots over 42% from the three-point line and shoots 50% from all distances.  Look for him to get plenty of touches, especially when he is coming off a solid performance against the Wildcats.  Wisconsin is not the best road team, but leading scorer Jon Leuer will be playing for the first time since January 9 against Purdue.  He could be the spark the Badgers need to make a late-season run in the Big Ten and NCAA tournament.

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For the third week in a row, Michael Rothstein at AnnArbor.com has taken a straw poll of nearly fifty journalists from around the nation who have a vote in one of the major national Player of the Year awards (presumably the AP, Wooden, and Naismith).  Like the annual Heisman Trophy analyses that pop up every November, the straw poll gives us a sense as to who the top NPOY candidates are heading into the final few weeks of the season as well as any trends for better or worse that are occuring.  This week’s list, released Wednesday prior to tonight’s games, is below.

Right now it appears to be a two-horse race between Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Kentucky’s John Wall, but for the first time in the three weeks of the straw poll, The Villain received more votes.  It’s unclear whether these votes were tallied before Wall’s near-triple double on Tuesday night, but Turner more than held his own tonight against Purdue with 29/7/5 assts himself (although OSU lost the game).  If DeMarcus Cousins keeps putting in the work for John Calipari’s Wildcats, he could begin shaving off even more of Wall’s supporters, as murmurs of an anti-Wall hype backlash are already surfacing in some circles.

Evan Turner is #1, For Now...

It’s somewhat interesting to us that Scottie Reynolds outpolled Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson in the Big East, even though Johnson has been the more celebrated player throughout the season — their relative placement on this list could literally come down to one game in Syracuse on February 27.  If Kansas keeps winning, expect to see Sherron Collins rise up this list fairly quickly, especially if he has another big game where he leads his team to a close victory.  We wouldn’t think Cole Aldrich will have a similar track, though, simply because his overall numbers are so pedestrian compared to the other names above him on the list (note: we recognize his substantial impact, but NPOY winners have better numbers than Aldrich will have this year).

With nearly four weeks until Selection Sunday, keep in mind that college basketball writers are a fickle bunch.  At this time of year, one particularly inspiring nationally-televised game can seal it for a player near the top of this list.  For example, who could ever forget the dominating Kenyon Martin performance against DePaul that sealed his NPOY award in 2000, or the 30/16 game that a baby-faced freshman Kevin Durant dropped in a double-overtime win against rival Texas A&M in 2007?  There may not seem like there’s a lot of basketball to be played, but writers fairly or unfairly place much more emphasis on the games near the end of the season when making their selections.  It’ll be worth keeping an eye on this straw poll the final few weeks to see how it ends up.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#16 Ohio State @ Illinois – 1 pm on CBS (*****)

There are only a handful of teams that have a winning streak of at least five games, and two of them will meet in this clash that has huge Big Ten title implications.  The Buckeyes will want to keep pace with the Spartans (and several other contenders) in order to claim at least a share of the conference championship.  Both of these teams stand at 9-3 in the conference, but only Ohio State is ranked (#16).  Illinois, if they win a third consecutive game over a ranked Big Ten team, will not only appear in next week’s top 25, they will also likely be considered the front-runner for the Big Ten title.  In order to top Ohio State, Illinois is going to have to get past defensive standout David Lighty and a Buckeye defense that only gives up 60.5 points per game.  Demetri McCamey has exploded for the Illini when they have needed him the most, shooting a combined 19-29 against Michigan State and Wisconsin.  Although Illinois does not rank in the top 40 in either offensive or defensive efficiency, if McCamey can carry the team on his back again, they will certainly keep this game close.  Ohio State’s offensive game is solid as well, as they are third in the nation in field goal percentage, and they rank eighth in offensive efficiency with four players averaging in double figures.   Although the Buckeyes are hot, their wins have come against the basement of the conference, while Illinois has asserted itself as one of the most overachieving teams in the country, so look for the Illini to get the win to move one step closer to a Big Ten title.

Louisville @ #3 Syracuse – 1 pm on ESPN (***)

Although people are well aware of the struggles of North Carolina and Connecticut, Louisville has been just as big of a disappointment this season.  Last year’s Big East winner and #1 NCAA tournament seed, the Cardinals are currently on Joe Lunardi’s first four out.  UL is an acceptable seventh in the Big East, but if they continue to perform on the road like they have so far this season (1-6) they will not have to wait on Selection Sunday to know what their plans are for mid-late March.  The main reason for Louisville’s disappointment is their inability to play defense, with an efficiency rating of #82 in the country.  Syracuse not only ranks better on defense at seventh in the country (they rank in the top ten in steals and blocks per game), they are also among the nation’s best offensive teams.  Syracuse averages 81.6 points per game, and ranks #11 in offensive efficiency with the best field goal percentage in the country.  Louisville’s offense has struggled as of late, especially second-leading scorer Edgar Sosa, who is coming off a zero-point effort against St. John’s in which he went 0-6 from the field with five turnovers.  To make matters worse for UL, Syracuse is heading in the opposite direction, as the Orange are third in the nation with eleven consecutive wins.  Despite all the evidence to show why this game will not be close, the one thing the Cardinals have going for them is that there could potentially be a trap game for Syracuse.  Their next game is on the road against Georgetown, while Louisville knows they need to win almost every game to make the tournament.  Also, Wesley Johnson still does not appear to be 100 % back from his leg injury, as he is just 8-23 from the field in his last three games.   Nevertheless, Syracuse is too talented not to win this game.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Connecticut @ #3 Syracuse — 7 pm on ESPN (***)

Most fans in basketball circles have the Huskies out of the tournament right now, but UConn has plenty of chances to make up for their recent three-game losing streak.  In addition to tonight’s game against Syracuse, they have upcoming games against powerhouses Villanova and West Virginia, as well as three other bubble teams (and Rutgers).  If the Huskies can win five or six of those games, they can play themselves back into the tournament.  Their first task may be the toughest of all the remaining games.  Syracuse is currently a #1 seed, and they have won ten consecutive games.  The Orangemen rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while UConn ranks 76^th in offensive efficiency.    Led by Wesley Johnson, SU ranks first in the country in field goal percentage, second in assists per game, and average 82 points per game.  Johnson played through a leg injury against Cincinnati, but only scored five points and was ineffective.  With Johnson at less than 100 %, Andy Rautins stepped up and scored 20 points to lift Syracuse to the win.  Unless Syracuse wants another 6OT game like they had the last time they played Connecticut, they will need major contributions from both their second and third options, meaning Rautins and forward Kris Joseph.

#7 Duke @ North Carolina — 9 pm on ESPN (****)

These teams could be winless on the year and this would still be a great game.  This version means much more to UNC than it does to Duke.  Coach K has lost six of the last seven matchups against Roy Williams, but UNC could use a win to get them back in the discussion of those “last four teams in.”  They are 2-7 in their last nine games, but a win over Duke would help their poor record against the RPI top 50.  Both squads average over 80 points per game, but UNC’s statistics may be deceiving.  While the Blue Devils are the top team in offensive efficiency, the Tar Heels rank outside the top 60 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  North Carolina gives up nearly 74 points per game, a number that will likely jump when the Blue Devils come to Chapel Hill.  One of the most surprising statistics about UNC is their home record, as they have four losses at the Dean Dome.  In their last six losses, the Tar Heels have not scored more than 75 points in any of those games, and will need to find a way to break down a Duke team that allows only 63 points per game.  Duke, a team usually known for their three point shooting, has shot below 40 % from beyond the arc this year, but if Kyle Singler can get a hot hand like he had against Georgia Tech, Duke will send UNC to another loss.

#19 New Mexico @ #25 UNLV — 11 pm on CBS College Sports (*****)

It is a shame more people won’t be able to see this game between two of the best mid-majors this season.  The Mountain West Conference now has three teams in the top 25 after UNLV beat BYU by 14 points.  Perhaps more than any team in the country, the Rebels had the most impressive win over the weekend when they never allowed BYU to take a lead, much less keep the game close.  New Mexico also enjoyed a recent win over BYU in a game that was close throughout.  Both of these teams are enjoying win streaks; UNLV has won five games in a row, while UNM has not lost since a January 9 meeting with UNLV.  In that game, the Lobos shot just 22% from three point range and ended a 19-game win streak at the Pitt.  With all three MWC powerhouses sitting at 7-2, this game has huge conference standing implications.  Tre’Von Willis outshined Jimmer Fredette in the UNLV vs BYU game with 33 points, and if he scores over 25, it will be hard for UNLV to lose.  Although the Rebels have more of a go to player in Willis, he has only one other teammate averaging in double figures, while the Lobos have four players averaging over 10 points per game.  Fortunately for the Rebels, even if they lose this game, they still get to host the conference tournament.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

South Florida @ Notre Dame – 12 pm on ESPN 360 (***)

If somebody told you two weeks ago that USF was a tournament team, you would be shaking your head and laughing.  Now, with four straight wins, including victories against Pitt and Georgetown in their last two games, the Bulls are looking to dance in March.  Today’s game will be in South Bend, but considering South Florida held the Hoyas to 64 points in Washington, D.C., they may in fact be ready for this game.  While USF continues to impress, the Fighting Irish are disappointing fans again with four losses in their last six games, including defeats to Cincinnati and Rutgers.  Luke Harangody has held up his end of the bargain, with at least 37 minutes and 19 points in each of the last five games.  What is killing ND is how one-sided they are.  They rank fourth in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency rankings, but are an astounding 239th in defensive efficiency.  Statistically, Notre Dame can still play smart basketball, as they are third in the nation in assists per game and are in the top team in assists/turnover ratio.  However, given play of the most underrated player in the country in Dominique Jones (he has scored 20 + points in every game since December) I expect the Bulls to put another dagger in Notre Dame’s at-large chances.

North Carolina @ Maryland – 2 pm on FSN (***)

The debate is now over: UNC is out of the tournament as things stand now.  For Maryland, however, questions arise if this team is a serious threat to do some damage in March.  After having the four-game win streak ended by Clemson, they responded in a big way with a road win against Florida State.  The Terrapins rank in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy’s standings, thanks to top ten rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  North Carolina, with losses in six of the last eight games, is sniffing the bottom of the ACC with a 2-5 record.  Neither their offense nor defense rank in the top 60 in Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, so their chances in College Park do not look promising.  Maryland’s has not lost all year at the Comcast Center, but the Terps have shot around 20 % from beyond the arc in their last two games, a trend they will not be able to keep up if UNC scores near their 80.4 season average.  The difference between these two teams is that North Carolina is finding ways to lose and Maryland is finding ways to win, as shown by their late comeback against FSU.  Look for North Carolina to fall even further with another L in ACC play.

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RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.

This week’s Scribbles column will look ahead to a couple months down the road in Indianapolis, where 65 deserving teams will be whittled down to just four, and to that blissful Monday night in April when one lucky group will be dancing at mid-court to the tune of One Shining Moment. In my estimation, there are ten squads with a promising-to-slight chance of hoisting a 2010 National Champions banner during their home opener next season. I’m here to tell you those ten teams, why they have hopes of winning a national title, what’s holding them back, and the most realistic scenario as I see it come late March or beginning of April. These teams are ranked in reverse order from 10-1 with the #1 school holding the best cards in their deck.

10. Duke

Why they can win it all: Their floor leader and senior stalwart Jon Scheyer is the steadiest distributor in all of college basketball, evident from his incredibly stellar 3.28 A/T ratio and a 5.6 APG mark that ranks third in the ACC and 23d in the nation. Scheyer is also a deadly shooter coming off screens when he has time to square his body to the basket, nailing a career-high 39% from deep to go along with 44% from the floor overall. Duke is also a tremendous free-throw shooting team as a whole and Coach K has the ability to play a group of Scheyer-Kyle Singler-Nolan Smith-Mason Plumlee-Lance Thomas that doesn’t feature one player under 70% from the charity stripe. Duke also features a ton more size in the paint than during previous flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. When Singler plays small forward, Coach K can rotate Miles and Mason Plumlee, the glue guy Thomas, rebounding force Brian Zoubek and even Ryan Kelly at two positions with no player under 6’8. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more efficient backcourt in the nation than Scheyer and Smith. And it’s widely known that exceptional guard play is the ultimate key to winning in March.

What Makes Duke 2010 Different than Duke 2006-09?

Why they won’t win it all: Depth could certainly be an issue for the Blue Devils’ chances of raising their first banner since 2001. Andre Dawkins has fallen almost entirely out of the rotation and Coach K has started to limit Mason Plumlee’s minutes during important games. Also, Brian Zoubek’s tendency to immediately step into foul trouble limits his availability. It wouldn’t shock me to see Duke play Scheyer, Smith and Singler 40 minutes per game during their time in the NCAA Tournament. That could cause those key players, who rely primarily on their jump shot, to lose their legs and start throwing up bricks. Kyle Singler isn’t quite the superstar he was last season, either. Singler’s numbers are down across the board — scoring, rebounding, FG%, 3pt% — and he’s been dealing with a nagging wrist injury that may not improve in the weeks and months ahead. Duke also lacks the athleticism of teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Texas. They could struggle with quicker guards like John Wall and athletic rebounders of the Damion James mold.

Likely scenario: I see Duke reaching the Sweet 16 as a #2 seed where they fall to a more athletic, quick group of guards that can explode to the rim and draw fouls. Duke may have height, but most of that height just isn’t a threat offensively by any stretch of the imagination. Eventually getting into a jump shooting contest could be the Blue Devils’ downfall if two of Smith, Scheyer and Singler go cold.

9. West Virginia

Why they can win it all: Da’Sean Butler is one of the best players in the nation when the chips are on the table. If the Mountaineers need a big shot to keep their season alive, Butler will demand the basketball and more than likely deliver. He’s downed Marquette and Louisville on game-deciding jumpers and led the second half charge against Ohio State. West Virginia is also supremely athletic and Bob Huggins’ teams always crash the boards with a tremendous ferocity. No contender can match the height across the board that West Virginia touts other than Kentucky. Huggins has experimented with lineups in which all of his players are 6’6 or taller, including 6’9 Devin Ebanks acting as a point-forward and 6’7 Da’Sean Butler capable of posting up smaller two-guards. Sophomore Kevin Jones is an incredible talent and a rebounding machine (7.7 RPG) that hits 55% of his shots from the floor and 44% from deep. West Virginia has the luxury of any of their forwards being able to step out and drain a mid-range jumper, from Ebanks to Jones to Wellington Smith to John Flowers every once in a full moon.

Ebanks is the X-factor for West Virginia

Why they won’t win it all: Let’s face it: Bob Huggins doesn’t have exactly the best track record when it comes to NCAA Tournament success. Huggins hasn’t reached the Elite 8 since 1995-96 with Cincinnati and only one Sweet 16 in the last ten years. In 2000 and 2002, his Bearcats lost just four games all season and yet didn’t reach the second weekend of March both times. Most also question whether the Mountaineers can hit outside shots on a consistent basis. They’ve struggled mightily in the first half of Big East games and can’t afford to fall behind against elite competition in March like they did against Dayton last season. Point guard play is a prudent question for West Virginia, as well. Joe Mazzulla is a quality perimeter defender and a capable distributor, but he’ll never be the offensive threat he was two seasons ago due to that shoulder injury. Darryl Bryant can certainly catch a hot streak shooting-wise, but in all honestly he’s more suited as an undersized two-guard. Bryant is averaging just 3.6 APG in 25+ MPG of action.

Likely scenario: I’m still fairly high on this team. I love Butler at the end of games and Ebanks can do anything for Huggins — from score to rebound to run the point — and Kevin Jones is one of the most underappreciated players in the Big East. In the end, I see a clankfest from outside ultimately costing West Virginia their season. And for all their rebounding history, the Mountaineers are in the mid-60s in the nation. The Elite Eight seems like a proper place for their season to conclude.

8. Texas

Why they can win it all: No team boasts better perimeter defenders than Texas. Anyone that watched Dogus Balbay completely shut down James Anderson in the second half Monday night knows he’s the best perimeter defender in the nation, even stronger than Purdue’s Chris Kramer. Avery Bradley came in with the reputation as an elite defender and he’s certainly lived up to that billing. Even J’Covan Brown off the bench is a capable defensive player and Justin Mason is a plus defender. When Dexter Pittman stays out of foul trouble, Texas boasts a legitimate shot-blocking presence that can negate quick guards on the rare occasion they slip past Balbay or Bradley. Texas is also the deepest team in the nation and Rick Barnes has the capability of playing 10 or 11 men on any night if he feels the need. The preserved minutes could pay dividends in the form of fresh players come March. Damion James should also be on a mission come March as a senior. He’s never reached a Final Four during his Longhorns career and came back for a fourth year in Austin to accomplish that very feat.

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