2Pac was right after all

Quite a bit was made last season of a renaissance in the quality of basketball in the Pac-10 conference, as it ended the season as a top three conference in both the RPI and Sagarin ratings in addition to earning a record six NCAA bids for the conference and enjoying the prestige as the only conference with multiple teams in the Elite Eight (Oregon and UCLA). There has always been a surplus of talent on the west coast, especially in the Seattle and SoCal areas, but it was largely characterized by players opting to play for an eastern school just as often as staying home to play for State U. This has been changing over the last five years, however, as new coaches such as Lorenzo Romar at Washington, Tim Floyd at USC, Tony Bennett at Wazzu and Ben Howland at UCLA have endeavored and succeeded in keeping as many of those talents as possible close to home. This is no more evident than in some of the recruiting wars over the last couple of years that resulted in top ten players such as Spencer Hawes (Washington), twins Brook & Robin Lopez (Stanford), Kevin Love (UCLA) and Brandon Jennings (Arizona) signing to play in the Pac-10 (notable exception: Lake Oswego’s (OR) Kyle Singler to Duke).

Lavin’s former conference is on the rise

Still, we were a little surprised when Rivals released its top ten players at each position for the 2007-08 season, and the Pac-10 claimed by far the most players, with thirteen of the top fifty. This is especially remarkable given that the league is losing all-conference performers Arron Afflalo (UCLA), Aaron Brooks (Oregon), Marcus Williams (Arizona) and Nick Young (USC) to the NBA next season, while it welcomes likely top fifty players Kevin Love and OJ Mayo (USC) to the league. With talent like this staying on the west coast, we should expect another great season from the Pac-10 conference next year. Somewhere Steve Lavin’s hair gel is celebrating.

The ACC and Big East have seven players each on the list; the SEC has six, and the the Big 12 has five of the top fifty players. The Mountain West and Conference USA both have three of the top fifty, outperforming the Big 10 (again), who only has two. The Colonial (Eric Maynor – VCU), Horizon (AJ Graves – Butler), Missouri Valley (Randal Falker – S. Illinois) and Southern (Stephen Curry – Davidson) conferences each have one top fifty player returning. Below is the list including multiple-player conferences:

You probably noticed that we shaded the teams with three top fifty players returning next season – Stanford, UCLA, UNC, Kansas. It’s certainly no coincidence that three of those will begin next year in the top five of the polls, and the fourth, Stanford, will probably be knocking on the door of the top ten.

Thoughts –

• Where is all the Big Ten talent? Having less players on this list than CUSA and the Mountain West is cause for alarm, and helps to explain why only one Big Ten team played into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament last season. Where are the usual stables of talent at Michigan State and Illinois? Aside from the yeoman’s work that Matta is putting into recruting at OSU, the rest of the Big Ten has signed only two top thirty prospects during the last three recruiting cycles – Joe Krabbenhoft of Wisconsin in 2005, and Eric Gordon of Indiana in 2007. An influx of coaching talent has entered the league (Tubby Smith at Minnesota and Kelvin Sampson at Indiana), but without the players to accompany those moves, the Big Ten is going nowhere fast.
• Nitpicks. We probably would have found a place for the following players: Derrick Low (Washington St.), Edgar Sosa (Louisville), Jerel McNeal (Marquette), and Patrick Beverley (Arkansas). Expect each of these players to be all-conference performers in their respective leagues next season. We also have a sneaky feeling that guys like DaJuan Summers (Georgetown), Deon Thompson (UNC), Derrick Caracter (Louisville) and JaJuan Smith (Tennessee) will make a solid case to be on this list next season.
• Surprises. NC State’s future looks bright with two young big men, Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley, returning for Sidney Lowe’s team. Alabama should be much improved next year as well, assuming Ronald Steele gets healthy (he was on many preseason all-american teams last year but struggled with tendinitis and ankle injuries that largely derailed Bama’s season). Apologies to the Mountain West, but who are Stuart Creason and Luke Nevill? Their inclusion on this list shows that the depth of talent at the center position in the college game is ridiculously thin.
• Instant Impact Players in 2007-08. This list next season will be populated by the likes of OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley (Kansas St.), Derrick Rose (Memphis) and Anthony Randolph (LSU).

• Yes, you heard correctly.  The Hair (aka Quin Snyder) is now coaching in the NBDL for the Austin Toros.  No word on whether he’s brought out his master motivational techniques yet. 
• Clemson’s James Mays withdrew his name from the NBA Draft.  He is exactly who the withdrawal rule was intended for – we’re glad to see it working. 
• Shocker!  Going to class equals a better GPA for student-athletes?!!?  What will the good folks at Georgia think of next? 
• According to Justin Young at Rivals, the Big East, led by Syracuse and Villanova, brought in the most talent this year, with seven of the top thirty recruiting classes of 2007.  The Pac-10, led by USC and Arizona, is second, enlisting five of the top thirty classes. 
• The Orlando Sentinel has a clever take on the winners and losers of the Billy Donovan fiasco.   
• Finally, we’re taking the Spurs in 5 over Cleveland.  The Witnesses will have to wait another couple of years. 

• Slow week in college hoops news, so let’s all review recruiting lists for fun!  USA Today (2007), Scout (2008) and Rivals (2008) all have new top 100s out this week (login required for Scout and Rivals). 
• As everyone suspected, Greg Oden is actually 33 years old. 
• Jim O’Brien is eligible to destroy your team’s program in 2009 now rather than 2011.
• We’ve lost patience with this.  ESPN’s most overrated and underrated programs of the last decade are now out.  It seems that ESPN was actually asking/answering two different questions (overrated isn’t the same as underachieving, and vice versa, but we digress), but if we define the rating system as performing above or below your talent level, no question that Cincinnati is a major omission from the overrated list, and likewise Utah from the underrated list.    

• But for Winthrop (doh!), Mike Brey might have been given an extension at Notre Dame through 2023 (instead of 2013).   
• Rick Pitino has also signed an extension with Louisville through 2013.  Six more seasons at Louisville??  The Vegas over/under is three.   
• The Big Ten is looking to bring future thrillers such as Northwestern vs. Iowa to homes from Malibu to Manhattan (currently starved for midwestern basketball) with its deal to place the Big Ten Network on DirecTv & AT&T cable providers.   
• There were a host of rumors floating around the message boards this weekend that Billy Donovan had interviewed with the Memphis Grizzlies last week, and was seriously considering their offer of $5M per annum.  Yahoo Sports corroborated this story on Sunday, but it has since been completely debunked, as Donovan did not interview with Memphis and has no interest in the job. 
• From the looks of it, UCLA is the very early leader for the best class of 2008, already receiving commitments from three of the Rivals top fifty players (login required) (Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee and Drew Gordon) and the possibility of two more. 
• NBA Second Round Predictions – a 5-3 record is pretty pathetic for the first round of the NBA Playoffs, and yes, we realize we’re late, but here are the predictions for Round Two:
  • Pistons over Bulls in 7 – the aging Pistons hold off the young Bulls for one last season 
  • Cavs over Nets in 7 – if we watch more than 5 minutes of this series, have us exported immediately to a country where soccer is watched for fun
  • Spurs over Suns in 6 – this would have been the pick even prior to Nash’s bloody nose Game 1 on Sunday
  • Warriors over Jazz in 6 – the magic carpet ride for Nellie & Co. continues for one more series

The late signing period began Wednesday with little fanfare, as only five of the top 150 players on Rivals were listed as still available. Top names such as Patrick Patterson and Jai Lucas are still unsigned, with Florida, Kentucky and others in the mix for their services. It got us at RTC wondering, why are there two signing periods in college basketball? The early signing period in November is typically when most players sign, but there is no analagous “early” period in college football.

College football has only one signing period in early February, scheduled after the prospects’ seasons are finished. “National Signing Day” is the first day college football seniors can sign, and ESPN and the sports world in general makes a fairly large deal out of it. Analysts chatter away for most of that day about which programs got themselves into good shape for the years to come; and who will be the hot players to watch for as freshmen next fall. Colllege basketball seems to be doing itself a bit of disservice, from a public relations and media standpoint, by splitting its recruiting into early/late signing periods. It seems that by having one signing period it puts you in a better position to maximize media attention during the offseason. We’d love to hear reasons that justify the split process from anyone.