Announced last on the NCAA Selection Show (conspiracy?!), North Carolina State made the tournament after a brief absence from meaningful post-season play and was rewarded with what seems to be a fairly favorable draw against San Diego State. Coached by the legendary Steve Fisher, this San Diego State team that was supposed to be in severe rebuilding mode after losing most of last year’s veteran-loaded team to graduation and/or the NBA, but something strange happened. Sure, they lost more games than last year’s  team that went 32-2 before NCAA Tournament play, but who didn’t outside of Murray State. Still, instead of falling off the face of the Earth, the Aztecs made a really strong run this year, knocking off a number of pretty good teams. UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado State, fellow NCAA teams from the Mountain West Conference all took at least one loss to San Diego State. The Aztecs also swept their three-game series against the Pac-12, beating Arizona, California, and Southern California as well as beating a pretty good Big West team in Long Beach State. Now, these wins look okay on paper, but they come with a number of caveats: The Pac-12 was truly terrible this year, wins against Cal and Arizona look worse and worse as more time passes, and beating USC was never really all that impressive. Though the wins against fellow Mountain West teams looks pretty good, it has to be understood that the Aztecs also lost at least once to all three of these teams. So while this is a nice collection of wins, I’m not sure that it says anything definitive about San Diego State’s quality.

Despite Being The Lower Seed, Gottfriend & The Wolfpack Should Like Their Chances

What I can say is that San Diego State has largely started 6’7″ Tim Shelton at center for much of the year. While the Aztecs can bring decent size off the bench in 6’11” Garret Green and 6’8″ Deshawn Stephens (and they typically give reasonable minutes to both), San Diego is pretty small compared to NC State’s front court, which is a problem. San Diego State is a good defensive rebounding team, but the Wolfpack is one of the more formidable offensive rebounding teams in the nation, boasting a legitimate star of the offensive glass in Richard Howell. On the opposite end, the Aztecs (with the exception of Deshawn Stephens) are largely indifferent to the offensive glass, seeming to philosophically embrace a San Antonio Spurs-esque approach which encourages getting back on defense over crashing the offensive glass. All in all, this seems to add up to a distinct advantage for the Wolfpack on the glass on both ends. This difference in rebounding good be significant for teams that stylistically share a few attributes.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Lots of important conference games on the docket this evening. As we move into the final two weeks of the regular season in college hoops, there are several conference titles up for grabs.  It should be a fantastic closing to the season before we head into the postseason.

Kim English, Ricardo Ratliffe & The Rest Of The Tigers Look To Avenge Their Earlier Loss

Kansas State at #3 Missouri – 7:00PM EST on ESPN2 (****)

• Along with Texas, Kansas State sits squarely on the bubble in the Big 12. A road win at Missouri would do wonders for their tourney chances. Frank Martin’s team is coming off a nice win against Baylor and can feel some comfort in the fact they have beaten the Tigers once already this season. They need to take advantage of their size on the offensive glass as they in did the previous match-up with Mizzou. Additionally, keep a close eye on Kansas State’s ability to get to the free throw line as the Wildcats rely heavily on free throws. Also, watch Rodney McGruder’s shooting from deep. Missouri is allowing teams to shoot 39.7% from three in conference play. McGruder is Kansas State’s best three-point shooter and can have a huge impact in a close game.
• Missouri is on a collision course with Kansas next Saturday in Lawrence. In what could be the last regular season “Boarder Wars”, the game looms large for the Tigers. In most cases, this would be a classic trap game. However, with a loss earlier in the season to Kansas State, don’t expect Missouri to look past the Wildcats. The Tigers are undefeated at home, have won seven in a row, and operate the most efficient offense in the entire country. They look ready for a deep run in the tourney. Keep a close eye on how Ricardo Ratliffe plays against the Kansas State size. He had zero impact in the last game and needs a better showing for Missouri to win tonight.
• This game comes down to defense. Kansas State held the Tigers to their worst shooting performance of the season in their previous match-up. If they can do the same in this one, they have a chance to pull the big upset. If Missouri can box out on the defensive end and create turnovers, they can avenge their previous loss to the Wildcats.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Locks: Temple, North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Wichita State, Creighton, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Murray State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga.

Tu Holloway stepped up Saturday against Dayton to keep Xavier in the field

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis (22-5, 10-3)- The Billikens tournament hopes could ride on how much the committee factors in their attractive computer numbers (21 RPI, 11 KenPom, 17 Sagarin) and discards a void in the quality win department. Their only decent wins came over bubble teams Xavier (road) and Washington (home) while missed opportunities at New Mexico and home vs. Temple loom large. A 10-3 conference record, stellar RPI and another win over Xavier when the Musketeers return to SLU on February 28 should be sufficient for a bid.

Xavier (17-9, 8-4)- The unpredictable Musketeers stayed on the right side of the bubble by dispatching Dayton in overtime on Saturday and their only opportunity for a resume-building win is the aforementioned meeting with Saint Louis. Avoiding a defeat at Massachusetts on Tuesday is paramount given Xavier’s already questionable losses against Hawaii, La Salle and Oral Roberts when their team was depleted by suspensions. Xavier does have impressive wins at Vanderbilt and home vs. Purdue, but both of those came before December 3. Their #54 RPI and #54 SOS screams bubble team.

ACC

Virginia (20-6, 7-5)- The Cavaliers have long been considered NCAA worthy but their overall portfolio is actually quite lacking. Their only two RPI top-50 wins came over Michigan back in November and a one-point home win over Miami, while regrettable losses to TCU, Clemson and home vs. Virginia Tech loom. The #231 non-conference strength of schedule is another anchor. The remaining schedule isn’t forgiving – revenge game at Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, at Maryland– but on the flip side there are two RPI top-20 scalps coming to Charlottesville. Win just one and Tony Bennett can breathe easier.

NC State (18-9, 7-5)- The Wolfpack just concluded a devastating week, blowing a huge second half lead at Duke and 48 hours later getting blown out of the water at home against Florida State. With only one RPI top-50 win after Texas fell out following their own crushing loss, State is barely our last team in. The only chance for resuscitation is by beating North Carolina at home on Tuesday and finishing off a sweep of Miami on February 29. They also face a tricky road game at Clemson sandwiched in between. The computer numbers (57 RPI, 38 SOS, 29 non-conference SOS) are respectable.

Miami (16-9, 7-5)- At the moment, the Canes are pinning their tournament hopes on that crucial road win against Duke on Super Bowl Sunday because they have absolutely nothing else. Their next best wins by RPI is UMass at home, largely because all their important non-conference games – at West Virginia, at Purdue, Memphis– were played without star center Reggie Johnson. The Canes were also swept by North Carolina, lost at Virginia and Florida State and fell to NC State at home. The Seminoles return date on February 26 is a must win or the resume will be too empty to deserve serious consideration.

Big 12

Iowa State (19-8, 7-5)- The most difficult portion of the Cyclones schedule is yet to come with games at Kansas State, at Missouri and home vs. Baylor to wrap up the regular season. Winning either road game would solidify their bid, but even downing Baylor in Ames would give them home wins over Kansas, Baylor and Kansas State, likely enough to punch a ticket in this bubble climate. Iowa State has average numbers (42 RPI, 35 KenPom, 36 Sagarin) and bad losses at Drake, home vs. Northern Iowa and at Oklahoma State. They beat fellow bubble team Texas 77-71 at home in their only meeting.

Kansas State (18-8, 7-7)- The #59 RPI, #250 non-conference SOS and sweep at the hands of Oklahoma are setbacks, but their overall profile appears solid after Saturday’s enormous win at Baylor coupled with wins vs. Missouri, Texas and in the  non-conference vs. Long Beach State and Alabama. Both KenPom and Sagarin like the Wildcats more than the flawed RPI, ranking Kansas Stateat #25 in the country. Tuesday’s trip to Missouri is basically house money with three winnable games vs. Iowa State, at Texas A&M and vs.Oklahoma State remaining on the Big 12 slate. Take care of business in those three and Frank Martin’s squad is in the field.

Texas (17-10, 7-7)- Tonight’s clash with Baylor in Austin is just as enormous to their tournament chances as Saturday’s bad loss at Oklahoma State. The young Horns don’t stand a chance at Kansas; with Texas Tech and Oklahoma their only other remaining games before the Big 12 Tournament, this is their golden opportunity to stay viable for the selection committee. The losses to Kansas and Missouri by a combined five points loom large. Their best wins to date are all at home vs.Temple, Iowa State and Kansas State. Texas has yet to beat a team in the RPI top 100 on the road.

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1. Western Kentucky announced yesterday that its new head coach was its current head coach. Despite starting his career at 4-7 since taking over for Ken McDonald, the school has opted to retain the services of Ray Harper. Citing the difficult circumstances that Harper inherited with taking over the team in early January, the school claimed it had “total confidence his ability to return our program to prominence”. Based on his record at the Division II level where he was named national coach of the year four times in nine season while winning two national titles and claiming four runner-up finishes (one was later vacated) the Hilltoppers might be moving in the right direction very soon.
2. Critics of the NCAA will have one less thing to rail against at schools opposing the previously accepted proposal allowing schools to award mulityear scholarships failed to reach the veto threshold. When the rule was passed in August 2011 it was hailed as a small, but important concession for athletes, whose scholarships and academic/career goals can swing with a coaching change or an injury. However, a few months later, a large number of schools petitioned the NCAA asking for a repeal of the rule leading to Friday’s vote. Needing 62.5% (more than 206) of the 330 institutions to vote against it for a repeal, the schools were only able to get 62.12% (205 votes) so when the NCAA parades around its new multiyear scholarships remember that it was two votes away from having it repealed and not everybody voted (the NCAA would only say more than 90% voted).
3. There are a lot of way to have your bubble burst and Purdue appears to have taken the most publicly embarrassing one. On Friday, the team suspended starting point guard D.J. Byrd and dismissed starting guard Kelsey Barlow following an incident that morning where Byrd was arrested for public intoxication while Barlow, who had been thrown out of the bar earlier that night apparently came back with several teammates including Robbie Hummel where Barlow reported hit a bouncer and was arrested. Even though they are still technically in contention for a NCAA Tournament bid with every other team bubble team falling apart this seriously damages their chances of making any kind of run.
4. It will be an eventful few days for several members of the 1988-89 North Carolina State team. On Saturday, in one of the more bizarre interactions between an official and the crowd that we have seen, veteran official had Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta removed from the stands in a game between NC State and Florida State even though they did not appear to do anything that you typically see fans get ejected for and afterwards did not offer any explanation for his actions. Yesterday, the school announced that tomorrow it would honor that Wolfpack team that Corchiani and Gugliotta were on in a tribute to the team before Tuesday’s game against North Carolina as part of its inaugural “Wolfpack Unlimited” award that honors the spirit of Jim Valvano. According to Debbie Yow, the school’s Athletic Director, the 1988-89 team was up for consideration before Saturday’s events although she did not specify how those events impacted her choice.
5. “A season with few bright lights grew even dimmer Friday.” That opening sentence from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution sums up our thoughts on Georgia Tech dismissing Glen Rice Jr. from its team. Normally, the loss of a player who leads your team in scoring, rebounds, and steals is crippling, but when you had already lost 12 of your last 14 you cannot get much worse. This suspension is Rice’s second of the season as he was also suspended for three games earlier this year for violating unspecified team rules and while the school would not go into detail about what led to the dismissal they did say that it was not basketball-related. Fortunately for the Yellow Jackets their last four games are against four of the teams they are competing against to stay out of the ACC’s cellar. With three of those games at home perhaps they can avoid finishing dead last in the conference.

1. ESPN and Sports Illustrated: I missed two of the better recaps of Duke‘s comeback from last night from Eamonn Brennan and Andy Staples. The two articles are very similar in structure and tone. I still can’t really believe the final result. While people got a little carried away with the “North Carolina is dominating Duke” theme in the second half, it was still very clear the Tar Heels owned that game after the first 18 minutes. It’s also worth noting that Duke shot less free throws (which is to be expected based on the team’s reliance on threes) and missed the same number–just not as many in crunch time. Finally, if you’re interested in a more biased take, Shane Ryan posted a behemoth on Grantland that was a solid (very pro-Duke) read.
2. Greensboro News & Record: Jeff Mills watched Duke and North Carolina from home, alternating from the ESPN and Raycom broadcasts. Formerly, the ESPN broadcast was blacked out (which was brutal because some cable providers didn’t have Raycom’s broadcast in high definition), but the new television contract gets rid of ESPN blackouts until the ACC Tournament. The dual broadcasts was interesting. Dan Bonner and Tim Brando provided a distinct contrast to Dickie V, Jay Bilas, and Dan Shulman. One distinction Mills noted was the audio. ESPN’s equipment blocked most of the white crowd noise, while Raycom highlighted the intense atmosphere. The other big difference was the producing. ESPN focuses on coaches; Raycom on the crowd and players.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: Would you believe me that NC State boasts more McDonald’s All-Americans that Duke and North Carolina combined? At least for now (several recruits are still undecided and considering Duke and/or North Carolina) Mark Gottfried owns the lead in high-profile recruits with Tyler Lewis, Rodney Purvis and TJ Warren all making the cut. That’s going to put some major pressure on Gottfried to contend for the ACC title.
4. Washington Post: Duke may have exposed a way to beat North Carolina. You need to hit lots of threes. Virginia‘s defense shouldn’t be an issue against the Tar Heels (or anyone else for that matter), but the Cavaliers’ offense is often sluggish and inconsistent. But Tony Bennett’s squad has a history of success beyond the arc, as it led the conference in three point percentage last year. While Virginia’s tempo will keep it from putting up 36 threes, look for close to its season-high 25 against North Carolina’s stingy interior defense.
5. Shakin’ the Southland: Free throws are still killing Clemson. It seems like a broken record at this point. Year after year the Tigers struggle from the line. The more interesting part of Clemson’s loss to Maryland is how the Tigers crawled back in the game with a 1-3-1 trap. This is the second game in a row Brad Brownell has changed up the defense with success (albeit success without winning). It will be interesting to see if he continues messing with his defensive scheme going forward.

Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Nerlens Noel Re-classifies To Class of 2012

Nerlens Noel Is Now One Of the Top Seniors In the Country. (Daryl Paunil/NRS)

Elite Junior Will Graduate A Year Early. There’s been ongoing speculation for a long time that center Nerlens Noel might re-classify from the Class of 2013 to the Class of 2012, but he didn’t gave much of an indication that he was going to. However, late Wednesday night the best shot-blocker in the prep ranks in the country confirmed that he was indeed going to graduate a year early and move to the Class of 2012. What does that mean? Well, other than getting to see him in college a year early, it means that he will have to decide which school he’s going to commit to in the next couple of months. Syracuse and Kentucky have long been the favorites for Noel and while a couple sources have told RTC that they think he will pick the Orange, it’s going to be a close race between the two. Other than John Calipari and Jim Boeheim‘s squads, Noel is considering multiple other schools and has already visited Providence and Connecticut while he plans on visiting Syracuse (February 11), Kentucky, Florida, Georgetown and North Carolina soon. He doesn’t have a timetable for committing but keep in mind that the regular signing period is April 13-May 18. We will be interviewing Noel some time in the next several days so if you’re interested in his recruitment, make sure you check back next week to see what he has to say about the schools on his list.

What They’re Saying

• Senior star Rodney Purvis on why he’s happy he made the Jordan Brand Classic: “Being from the same city and with John [Wall] being like my big brother, I wanted to do all the things he did. I didn’t tell a lot of people, but I really, really wanted to play in the Jordan Brand Classic. Like a whole lot.”

Without Milton Jennings, Clemson came remarkably close to a road upset of Virginia last night. Clemson’s more balanced attack looks like it will work out well for the Tigers while their disruptive defense was a nightmare for a Virginia team that struggled to hold on to the ball. Virginia, on the other hand, gutted out the tough win thanks to the super-efficient performances of Mike Scott and Joe Harris. Scott scored 23 points on 11 shots with ten rebounds and three blocks while Harris scored 19 points on nine shots, leading the team to 55.8% shooting from the field. Meanwhile, North Carolina managed a 15-point win on the road despite shooting 31.0% on the road in Winston-Salem. Such is the power of effective defense and managing 21 offensive rebounds.

Virginia Withstood Another Close Game To Get A Win (AP/J. Raoux)

Middle-Weight Brawl

• Maryland at Miami at 8:00 PM on ESPN3.com

Miami has a a Sunday date at Cameron Indoor and is riding a two-game winning streak where the Hurricanes have handled their business against the likes of Georgia Tech and Boston College that doesn’t yet qualify as momentum. Miami has been playing well, but a win against a Maryland team that has shown flashes of brilliance with Terrell Stoglin and a talented if underutilized frontcourt is a good start. It’s unclear if Miami has any answer for Stoglin, but it seems certain that Maryland doesn’t have any deffensive answers for the array of firepower at Jim Larranaga’s disposal.

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Thursday night was not a good night for people who like close games. Despite admirably hanging tough for a chunk of the game, there was no way Boston College was going to out-tough Virginia, with or without Assane Sene. Meanwhile, upset-minded North Carolina State received a stern reminder in Chapel Hill that their turn around isn’t complete just yet. Saturday, however, offers some intriguing story lines, capped up with an epilogue to Thursday night’s action.

Prime Time Showdown

NC State Not Quite Ready For Prime Time

• Virginia at North Carolina State at 8:00 PM on ESPN2

The Cavaliers bounced back from their surprising loss to Virginia Tech last weekend with a command performance against the thoroughly outgunned Boston College. Playing in Raleigh against a North Carolina State team that was embarrassed on Thursday, Virginia has a more challenging task ahead of them. Both of these teams are probably among the top five teams in the conference, but both have a lot to prove. If Virginia wants to have any hope of remaining in the polls, they need an overpowering road win against the Wolf Pack. North Carolina State, on the other hand, needs a win by any margin. The blessing and curse of the conference schedule for NC State is that it’s relatively soft. The team will finish the year with plenty of wins, but their chances for quality wins are few and far between. Taking care of a beatable Virginia team at home is a must if NC State wants to be playing basketball throughout March.

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1. USA Today: Nicole Auerbach sat down with Mike Scott the “dark horse” ACC Player of the Year candidate (I only use quotation marks because he should be the runaway candidate thus far, but I’m not sure the voters would agree). It’s an interesting interview that touches on Scott’s rehab, Virginia’s success and what it’s like to be a fifth-year senior. Apparently Scott put on a good deal of weight but lost 20 pounds trying to get ready for the season.
2. Fayetteville Observer: Virginia will get some help in the depth department, at least in practice, from Teven Jones. Jones went to Fishburne Military School for what was supposed to be a postgraduate year, but after a semester his coach suggested he enroll with the Cavaliers. Jones originally drew coaching eyes on the gridiron as a wide receiver, but the combo guard looks like he could be an invaluable weapon offensively in the coming seasons for Virginia.
3. Washington Post: File this away in the obvious section. Terrell Stoglin needs help from Maryland on the scoring front. He’s responsible for 30.7% of Maryland’s points, and the attention he receives probably makes him even more important than that. Take the Terrapins’ loss to Florida State: Stoglin seemingly dominated the game, scoring 27 points, but he didn’t score at all during the Seminoles’ “game-deciding” 21-5 run. Nick Faust, Sean Mosley, and even Alex Len have all shown flashes of scoring ability, but Mark Turgeon will really need someone to step up to compete in conference play.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: Speaking of obvious stories, Florida State‘s offense is “suddenly on fire”. After a very slow start (I’m not even sure that does credit to its 10-point half against Princeton), this group of Seminoles is the first ever to score over 80 in back-to-back conference games. Part of the key has been the addition of Ian Miller, who was forced to sit out the beginning of the season. But the real key has been valuing the basketball. If the Seminoles score 80 points this weekend, they will beat Duke more times than not even in Cameron Indoor.
5. Winston-Salem Journal: Mark Gottfried’s team is going to have to deal with something new–success. Well, if last night’s game was any indication, the Wolfpack dealt with it very well in a big win against Boston College. The score didn’t reflect just how dominant NC State was–especially in the first half (all said and done Richard Howell managed to outrebound the Eagles’ starters). Next up the Wolfpack have a road test against Miami before Mark Gottfried’s first game from the Dean Dome.

EXTRA: I managed to overlook this earlier in the week, but Gary Williams just started analyzing games for ESPN 980 in Washington DC. Williams already works as an analyst for the Big Ten Network, but this should be a chance to get his opinions on the ACC. He’s with the station until April 3.

The Hurricanes won their first ACC game despite allowing the Clemson Tigers to shoot 47.4% from the field, losing the offensive rebounding and the turnover battle. How do you win against a team that took more shots and nearly shot 50%? Well, you just have to shoot better than 50% yourself. In a dazzling offensive performance, Miami shot 51.9% from the field, made 9-of-20 three-pointers and converted 13-of-14 free throws. Miami may have gotten fewer possessions than Clemson, but they certainly made the most of the shots they got. Miami’s primary four guard rotation of Malcolm Grant, Durand Scott, Trey McKinney-Jones, and Shane Larkin all managed at least three assists and two steals. These aren’t huge numbers, but when you have four guys on the perimeter who are such capable play-makers and ball-hawks, it’s going to really help your team win. Another thing that will help your team win against Clemson? Holding Andre Young to 0-of-6 from beyond the arc.

Too Much To Prove

• North Carolina at Virginia Tech at 9:00 PM on ESPN

What Does Roy Have In Store For Us Tonight?

Virginia Tech has yet to win a conference game despite playing both lowly Boston College and Wake Forest. North Carolina is coming off a nationally televised beatdown which is the worst loss of Roy Williams’ career. One thing is certain about this game: Both teams should be playing as hard as they can. While it’s easy to expect a dominant Tar Heel bounceback, the Hokies have a couple of things going for them that makes this a tough match-up for North Carolina. UNC’s slumping three-point attack will be tested against a Hokies’ defense that’s even better than Florida State at defending the perimeter. Virginia Tech’s opponents have managed a meager 26.2% from long range. A lot of this has to do with the personnel that Seth Greenberg can put on the wing. With a number of quick, long forwards like Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarrell Eddie as well as two 6’5″ guards in Dorenzo Hudson and Robert Brown, the Hokies are one of the few teams that can match up with Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and P.J. Hairston without much trouble. Even worse for the Tar Heels, Erick Green is the exact kind of player (quick guard with a long-distance touch and play-making abilities) that is easily capable of hanging thirty on North Carolina. That said, Virginia Tech hasn’t proven anything this year: In every big game the Hokies have played, they’ve lost. You could say that they’re due a big win or you can say the lack that intangible mental toughness. Either way you see it, the Hokies will have a hard time dealing with the post presence of Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Virginia Tech’s biggest guys aren’t all that big, not all that skilled, and frequently suffer from foul trouble. It’s a tough matchup for any team, but if Carolina can get the ball inside on offense and prevent an Erick Green-based perimeter onslaught on defense, UNC takes the first step out of the shadow of Saturday’s brutal loss.

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