Wright State’s Brad Brownell was introduced this afternoon as the new head coach at Clemson University, ending a week of swirling rumors among three ACC programs (Boston College and Wake Forest are the others) as to the leadership and future direction of their programs.  Brownell had been reportedly in the mix for the Wake Forest position prior to the Deacs settling on Colorado’s Jeff Bzdelik (a move that is apparently still in negotiations).  Unlike Bzdelik, though, the new Clemson coach has achieved a verifiable and sustained pattern of success throughout his eight-year head coaching career. 

Brownell Becomes the Latest ACC Coach

At UNC-Wilmington from 2002-06, Brownell’s teams were 83-40 (52-20 CAA), including two conference championships and NCAA appearances (both close losses in the first round).  He then followed that up at Wright State with a nearly identical 84-45 record (49-21 Horizon), including a conference championship and another NCAA berth there in 2007.  His last three years at the school have been cast in the long shadow of Horizon League nemesis Butler, but his teams have won at least twelve conference games and twenty overall in each of his seasons at the helm there.  Put simply, the guy has won games wherever he’s coached. 

Brownell’s teams at WSU were among the most patient in the country the last several years, averaging between 60-64 possessions per game (national average = 67).  His teams are defensive-oriented with an emphasis on limiting good looks in the paint and forcing turnovers through sticky halfcourt traps and the denial of entry passes (similar to Butler in this regard).  Some Clemson writers wonder how that will translate to life in the ACC, but with halfcourt basketball now preferred at half the schools in the conference (with Donahue at BC and Bzdelik at Wake joining Tony Bennett at Virginia, Sidney Lowe at NC State and Leonard Hamilton at FSU in the utilizaton of patient basketball), we may be seeing a shift in the hoops culture of this league.  So long as it works, of course.  It makes for an interesting juxtaposition as the top three programs (and coaches) in this league prefer to run at every opportunity — will the ACC start looking more like the Big Ten with games in the 50s?

Among the three ACC hires this year, we believe that this one is poised to work out best for all parties involved.  Brownell is familiar with the Carolinas from his decade spent in Wilmington and is also certainly well-versed with how seriously ACC fans take their basketball (especially with respect to Drew Nicholas).  He’s also walking into a situation at Clemson where seven of last year’s top nine Tiger contributors from an NCAA Tournament team should return to the fold (although Devin Booker is reportedly waffling).  Oliver Purnell more than proved that basketball can succeed at this football school, and Brownell may just be the young, dynamic coach to take Clemson to the next level of regular NCAA Tournament runs beyond the first game. 

Forget the Coach K to the New Jersey Nets rumors (seriously, how cool would it be to watch Krzyzewski turn down increasingly ridiculous offers…  $15M: nah.  $25M: no way.  $50M: sure I’ll think about it.  $100M: ok, but only if you throw in something for Collins and Wojo.), the hottest coaching commodity that we’ve seen in a great number of years is none other than Butler’s 33-year old wunderkind, Brad Stevens.  Everyone in college basketball circles would love to be in his position right now, with a limitless number of suitors and a potential preseason top-five team returning in 2010-11.  If you’re Stevens and you decide to leave, you can ask your new employer for the moon; if you’re him and you decide to stay, you can ask your current employer for Venus.  No matter what his final decision will be, he can make demands that few ADs, Barry Collier included, can afford to turn down. 

The Butler Money Man (Indy Star/R. Scheer)

Given that environment, there are currently three open positions with enough name recognition, cash and prestige to lure Stevens away from his home state of Indiana.  Let’s break down each of those situations plus a fourth alternative of staying at Butler for a while longer. 

Oregon.  Oregon has made no bones about its desire to get a big name to replace Ernie Kent this year.  Tom Izzo and Tubby Smith have already reportedly turned down the Ducks and Phil Knight’s mattress stuffed with cash, but both of those guys are old-timers (relatively speaking) who have climbed the mountaintop before.  Stevens is 33 years old and makes a good living at Butler (~$400k annually), but he has two young children and when you’re facing the prospect of generational wealth as he would at UO (~$2-3M), it clouds the somewhat feel-good picture of staying at Butler for the ‘fit.’

• Pluses: Obviously, money and top-rate facilities in the form of the brand-new Matthew Knight Arena (opening Winter 2010-11) and the adjoining practice facility.  A commitment to basketball through Phil Knight’s largesse.  A down Pac-10 will make for an easier ascendency to the top in the next two seasons.  Oregon loves its Ducks — strong statewide support.  Did we mention the money? — five mediocre years there and he’s still sitting on a huge bankroll. 
• Minuses:  In its heart of hearts, Oregon is a football school.  Recruiting to Eugene isn’t easy outside of the Pacific Northwest, and an Indiana guy would probably be out of his element there.  He’s looking at a rebuilding situation next season — the Ducks will not be very good for a while.  Oregon basketball feels more like a stepping-stone appointment rather than a destination one.  It rains an awful lot there.

Can Knight Shovel Enough Dough Stevens' Way?

Wake Forest.  With today’s firing of Dino Gaudio after three seasons and two NCAA trips, it’s clear that Demon Deacon AD Ron Wellman has bigger things in mind.  The school has a small but passionate fanbase that would hire the Easter Bunny if they thought he could beat Duke and Carolina on a regular basis.  Wake has money to spend, but there’s no bottomless pot of (black and) gold of which Wellman can draw from like Oregon.  Still, the ACC is still the most prestigious basketball league in America, and Wake is a prime situation for the right coach.

• Pluses:  Tobacco Road: few places in the country match the commitment and passion of the fans in this part of the country about college basketball.  Stevens would find a similar situation to what he left in Indiana.  There is enough talent in the Carolinas and Atlanta to support another top twenty program in this area on talent alone — Wake could provide the platform for Stevens to make that leap and pay him handsomely for the privilege.  Like Butler, Wake is a small, private university with a commitment to academics, so he wouldn’t be making a huge change in comfort level.
• Minuses:  Tobacco Road: did we mention that three of the last six champions and two Hall of Fame coaches reside about 80 miles down the road in Durham and Chapel Hill?  Many a coach has come to NC State and Wake Forest with high hopes only to learn that harsh reality the hard way.  Getting wins in the ACC won’t be as easy a proposition as it was in the Horizon League.  Butler is a low pressure job, but Wake demands a lot from its coaches — perhaps more than can reasonably be expected.

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With all the talk about the coming 96-team tournament, many in the sports media have forgotten that there is already another ridiculous major college sport championship in place: the BCS. We took you through this process in a post last year, but it’s worth going over again as the blogosphere is ablaze with opinions on changing our beloved NCAA Tournament.

Here are the basic ground rules:

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible. Obviously there are some differences. A college basketball team is expected to win more than 9 games (we kept a cut-off at a 75% winning percentage). We replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. I used the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls as the human polls and ESPN.com’s InsiderRPI, KenPom.com, and Sagarin’s ratings as the computer polls. The computer polls include data from the NCAA Tournament, but as you will see it didn’t affect the results that significantly.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

Here are the results:

We will let you digest that for a minute and will provide more information/analysis and the BCS Bowls after the jump.

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It’s the Monday after the first two rounds, so that means it’s time for conference report cards!  With only eleven of the 32 BCS conference teams remaining, we have a feeling that the major conferences aren’t going to perform so well in this year’s grading.  But you never know.  It all depends on the individual matchups and our mood as we break out the red marker.  We review the conferences with multiple bids below…

WCC (2 bids, 1 remaining, 3-1 record, expected PASE = 1.4 wins)

Obviously, any time a WCC team makes the Sweet Sixteen it’s a great year for the conference.  It’s especially great this time around because #10 St. Mary’s shows that the conference has some talent and depth in its league beyond the same old Zags.  With two relatively low seeds (Gonzaga was a #8), many people were expecting the league to go oh-fer in the Dance this year, but now one week later the Gaels are a popular darkhorse pick to come out of the South Region as a true F4 Cinderella.

Verdict: A.  The only thing that would have made this an A+ would have been if Gonzaga had upset #1 Syracuse.  Every additional win from here on out is just gravy.

Big 10 (5 bids, 3 remaining, 7-2 record, expected PASE = 7.1 wins)

The Big Ten is having a good tournament after a somewhat disappointing regular season, and every year the league does this everyone acts surprised.  #2 Ohio State rolled in its two games and appears a very strong contender to get to the Final Four after Northern Iowa blew up the Midwest Region.  #4 Purdue and #5 Michigan State both survived extremely close games that support the contention that the Big Ten style of play (gutting out close games) helps when it comes Tourney time.  OSU and MSU are on a likely collision course to the regional finals for an all-Big Ten extravaganza, but even if nobody wins another game, the league has already reached this year’s expectations.

Verdict: A-.  Minnesota wasn’t expected to do much and they didn’t, but #4 Wisconsin was upset by a vastly underrated #12 Cornell in the second round.  That upset is more than compensated by Purdue’s showing against #5 Texas A&M, a game where it was clear just how much they missed Robbie Hummel yet they still found a way to win.  OSU and MSU give the Big Ten the most Sweet Sixteen teams of any league this season.

Pac-10 (2 bids, 1 remaining, 3-1 record, expected PASE = 1.2 wins)

West coast bias reared its head as the two Pac-10 invitees won first round games over Big East squads to move into the next round.  #11 Washington then followed that up with a pasting of #3 New Mexico, while #8 Cal was simply outclassed by Duke’s talent.  The way Washington is playing right now (nine in a row), we wouldn’t automatically assume a loss to WVU in the Sweets, but regardless of that result the league has already far outperformed what most people expected this year (which was an 0-2 record).

Verdict: B+.  The league was undoubtedly way, way down this year, but UW and Cal gave it back a wee bit of respectability with their showings over the weekend.

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Few college basketball fans are born with their love for the game. For most aficionados, at some point on the way from infancy to college hoops fan, there is a moment. A single play, shot, player, game, or event at which point they say to themselves, “I will always have this in my life.” Because it is the time of the season that carries the most gravitas, these things often happen in March. We asked some of our friends and correspondents: what was the thing that turned you into a lifelong college basketball fan? What was your…March Moment? We’ll be posting some of their answers for the rest of the month.

In this submission, RTC contributor and bracketologist-in-residence Zach Hayes illustrates one of the many reasons why the NCAA Tournament is the greatest event in American sports — a good deal of the time, it’s not just about basketball:

There’s something different about growing up rooting for a mid-major.

It’s elementary rooting for perennial powerhouses like Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina or Michigan State, teams that may experience hardship once a decade but can always be counted on to reload sooner than later, similar to playing the Rookie level on Madden.

When that special season comes along for a mid-major, the urgency is palpable, the intensity unmatched, the hope for that perfect slipper fit lingers. Fans of mid-majors often see their small, unknown program wallow in the depths of obscurity playing in front of 1,000 fans for years, unable to migrate up the standings. Then that miracle-working coach comes along, diamonds in the rough begin to fill out the roster, and finally the school faces that one opportunity to achieve the previously unthinkable.

For me, that team was the 2002-03 Milwaukee Panthers. For me, that coach was Bruce Pearl.

As any college basketball fan knows, the conference tournament is the be-all and end-all for mid-major programs. A team can suffer through a losing regular season, reel off three straight wins and find themselves in the Big Dance. But on the flipside, a team can coast to the regular season title, play one bad 40-minute stint and miss out on a chance that may never present itself again.

That was the situation facing the Panthers during Pearl’s second season at the helm and my first season with season tickets at THE MECCA, the downtown arena that Kareem and Oscar formerly patrolled for the Bucks back in the early-70s. The middling Horizon League program had been lingering in the shadow of Marquette in our own city and Butler in our own league for the bane of our Division I existence.

Then the perfect concoction came together for that 2002-03 season. We found a legitimate post player in Dylan Page, a sharp-shooting 2-guard in Clay Tucker, a steady point guard in Ronnie Jones and complimentary players like Jason Frederick and Nate Mielke that executed Pearl’s patented full-court press to a tee. It was a team incredibly easy to get attached to at 12 years old. Just me, my dad, our favorite coach and a mid-major trying to make a name for themselves.

Our Panthers ended up toppling mighty Butler in the Horizon finals. The court filled in a matter of seconds with gold-clad students lifting players into the air. The previously unimaginable had been accomplished. But all I remember from that moment is hugging my father and the beaming smile that covered his face. He’s taught at Milwaukee since 1982 and had experienced the lowest of lows with the program. It was for him.

We ended up losing to 5th seeded Notre Dame in the first round nine days later after Page missed a game-winning layup at the buzzer. The game ended around 11 PM on a school night, but of course my father let me stay up for the end. When Page’s miss trickled around the rim and out and the Irish celebrated at center court, I remember expecting the tears to stream down my face.

Instead, a smile of appreciation broke out. I looked over at my dad and he began to applaud.

We were too proud of them to do anything different.

Three More Dance Cards Drawn Tonight.  With tonight’s three conference titles from Butler, Oakland and North Texas, we’re noticing a trend this year that definitely makes all the bubble teams happy.  Even in the one-bid leagues where it doesn’t impact the bubble picture as to who wins the conference championship, it’s predominantly the best teams that are winning titles.  Out of the eleven auto-bids earned thus far, eight of them were the top seed or co-champion in the regular season.  The only true Cinderella we’ve had so far this conference tournament season came from the Atlantic Sun where ETSU as a #5 seed won the bid; even in the Big South and WCC, the teams who won, while not co-champions, were still pretty good teams (Winthrop and St. Mary’s).  With the Big East starting today and the Big 12 and Pac-10 starting tomorrow, will we see all chalk in those tournaments as well this week?  Only time will tell.

Horizon League Championship.  #12 Butler 70, Wright State 45.  Butler finished off its dream season in the Horizon League by winning its twentieth conference game in a prolonged coronation that erased many of the bad memories from last year’s home loss to Cleveland State at the same point.  The Bulldogs hit 52% from the field and got strong offensive contributions from Matt Howard (14/9) and Shelvin Mack (14/2) to completely outclass Wright State tonight.  With the 18 regular season wins and the two HL Tourney wins, Butler became the sole conference team to go unbeaten all the way through conference play this year.  This will be Butler’s fourth consecutive trip to the NCAAs, but how good is this team?  With an RPI of #17, and the fourth toughest nonconference schedule this year, we’d expect to see the Bulldogs on the #4/#5 line next week.  This would give them a reasonably easy first round game followed by a second rounder against someone like a Temple, Vanderbilt, Baylor or Maryland.  Butler lost two tough neutral games to Clemson and Georgetown earlier this year, but they also beat Ohio State and Xavier, so we know they can beat teams of that caliber.  The question we have is whether the defense will hold when Matt Howard inevitably gets into foul trouble against a big front line — the Bulldog center was better about this down the stretch of the season, but in games against six BCS teams plus Xavier and UAB, he committed 36 fouls, for an average of 4.5 per game.  Butler will need Howard’s offense and rebounding to stay on the floor if they expect to make another run at the Sweet Sixteen.

Butler is Soaring to the NCAAs Again (Indy Star/R. Scheer)

Summit League Championship.  Oakland 76, IUPUI 64.  Oakland head coach Greg Kampe didn’t hold back on confidence when he stated after his team’s championship tonight that he believes Oakland is the best team in the history of the Summit League and that they plan on pushing on through to the Sweet Sixteen in next week’s NCAA Tournament.  It helps when you have someone like Derick Nelson on your side — broken nose and all — when he shoots 15-23 from the field for 36/9 in a career-best performance.  Whatever Nelson wasn’t doing, center Keith Benson was, as he ripped down 17 rebounds and blocked six shots to ensure the school’s second NCAA berth in its history (OU also went in 2005).  The Golden Grizzlies are now riding an 11-game winning streak and have won 20 of 21 since a pasting at the hands of Syracuse just before Christmas.  With a trio of excellent players at the point (Johnathan Jones), wing (Nelson) and post (Benson), Oakland is certainly an interesting team to consider as a first round cinderella next week.

Keith Benson Blocked Oakland into the Dance (AP/E. Landwehr)

Sun Belt Championship.  North Texas 66, Troy 63.  The Mean Green of North Texas earned its second-ever NCAA bid in the last four years by hanging on down the stretch against Troy and getting a key bucket from mighty mite Josh White with 22 seconds remaining to break a tie and send his team on its way.  North Texas switched to a zone in the second half and dominated the boards (+10) which led to numerous second chances that they were able to convert tonight.  UNT is on a bit of a tear now, having won eleven games in a row and setting a new school record for wins in a season with 24.  In 2007, #15 seed North Texas gave #2 Memphis a solid game en route to a fifteen-point loss.  Coach Johnnie Jones is hoping for another similar performance this time around.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

The Horizon League finished its regular season on Saturday. The first round matchups for the tournament are all set. Of course the favorite to win the conference tournament is Butler. The Bulldogs went a perfect 18-0 in conference. The Bulldogs played without star forward Gordon Hayward – the assumed Horizon League Player of the Year – and still managed to defeat Valparaiso on the road on Friday. Butler will be playing at home and receives a double-bye into the semifinals.  The team joining Butler with the double-bye on the other side of the bracket? Wright State. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet. Much more on the Horizon League Tournament, the season that was, and everything else.

How did they/I do? Here is the media’s preseason poll compared with what actually happened this season in the Horizon League. For fun, I’ve also included what I said in preseason.

Preseason (Media/John)

• 1/1. Butler
• 2/2. Wright State
• 3/4. Cleveland State
• 4/3. Milwaukee
• 5/5. Green Bay
• 6/8. Detroit
• 7/9. Youngstown State
• 8/7. Valparaiso
• 9/10. UIC
• 10/6. Loyola

Actual

1. Butler
2. Wright State
3. Green Bay
4. Milwaukee
5. Cleveland State
6. Valparaiso
7. Detroit
8. Loyola
9. UIC
10. Youngstown State

Everyone knew who the top two teams were going to be coming into the season. Wright State returned a veteran team and Butler is a monster with its talent. After that it gets murky. Apparently both the media and I overrated Cleveland State just a smidge. I’m happy though that I had every school within two places of where the actually finished. Green Bay outperformed expectations a bit and since the Phoenix get Youngstown State at home to start, expect to see them in Indianapolis.

More about the HL Tournament

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Both Butler and Siena are setting themselves up to be bracket busters in a few weeks, but for one Saturday they will face each other at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The host Bulldogs have mowed through Horizon League play with a spotless 17-0 record and are on a 16-game winning streak overall. Their opposition in this made-for-TV event is Siena. The Saints scored a first round NCAA victory a year ago against Ohio State and are the class of the MAAC. A recent loss to Niagara, however, has left their NCAA at-large chances in some doubt if they don’t win their conference tournament. Butler is playing for a seed, while you’d have to figure that a Siena win in a tough road environment such as this would secure their place in the field of 65.  Join us on RTC Live to analyze and discuss the action. 

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings

1. Butler 17-0
2. Wright State 11-5
3. Green Bay 10-6
4. Valparaiso 10-7
5. Cleveland State 9-7
6. Milwaukee 8-8
7. Detroit 7-9
8. Loyola (IL) 5-11
9. UIC 2-14
10. Youngstown State 2-14

Top Storylines

• The quest for perfection: Butler is now one game away from perfection during the regular season in the Horizon League. The final game is at Valparaiso next Friday. Before that, though, Siena will test the Bulldogs in the BracketBuster game on Saturday. It is the first nationally televised game at 11:00 AM EST.
• The hot team: Now the hot teams are Wright State and Milwaukee. The Raiders have moved into a convincing second place in conference, but they still have two road games remaining. Milwaukee has climbed into the sixth seed in conference and has two games in Chicago after it’s BracketBuster game to improve its seeding. The Panthers lost to Loyola at home earlier this season, so they’ll be looking for revenge at the Gentile Center.
• The most exciting team: Valparaiso is probably a season away from being a top contender in the Horizon League, but the Crusaders sure do play an entertaining style of basketball. They’ve haven’t played a game in the 60s points-wise since going to UIC on January 21.
• The race for #2:  Technically four teams can get to 11-7 in conference still and capture the double-bye in the Horizon League tournament opposite of Butler. Here are the four teams still trying to capture that spot. If Wright State wins out they’ll obviously take the top spot, but that might be more difficult than it seems. The game at Cleveland State is a big pothole.

Team: Remaining League Games, Predicted Record

• Wright State: @Youngstown State, @Cleveland State, 12-6
• Green Bay: @UIC, @Loyola, 11-7
• Cleveland State: Detroit, Wright State, 10-8
• Valparaiso: Butler, 10-8

And a projected first round:

• #10 Youngstown @ #3 Green Bay
• #7 Detroit @ #6 Milwaukee
• #9 UIC @ #4 Cleveland State
• #8 Loyola @ #5 Valparaiso

The 5-8 and 6-7 games in this scenario would be excellent. Valparaiso just held off a furious late-game charge from Loyola to force the Ramblers onto the road for the first playoff game. Also, because of Detroit’s fall from grace they’d now have to play at Milwaukee in the first round. That’s a big switch.

A Possession-Free World

I keep possession-free statistics for the entire Horizon League. Here are some superlatives at this moment in conference.

• Best Offense: Butler (#2 is Valparaiso)
• Worst Offense: UIC
• Best Defense: Butler (#2 is Detroit)
• Worst Defense: Valparaiso
• Luckiest: Green Bay
• Unluckiest: Detroit

Another fun possession-free fact is that there are four teams bunched together now in the middle of the league. While Butler is the clear top dog, Wright State is number two, Detroit is number three (contrary to what their record says) and then there is a bunch. Milwaukee, Green Bay, Cleveland State and Valparaiso all get it done in different ways, but they’re essentially the same in terms of play in conference. Milwaukee plays a little more defense than the others, Valparaiso has a bit more explosive offense — but when you get down to it they all score about 0.1 points per possession more than their opponents in the league.

Finally, Bracket Busters is this weekend. My predictions for the 10 games.

1. Siena vs. Butler – Bulldogs squeak out a close one
2. Wright State at Ohio – Raiders should win, even on the road
3. Indiana State vs. Green Bay – Phoenix are tough to beat at home
4. Toledo vs. Cleveland State – Vikings should crush Rockets at home
5. Valparaiso at Bowling Green – A tough game on the road, Crusaders might fall
6. Niagara vs. Milwaukee – Panthers with a tough game against a MAAC foe, but at home
7. Eastern Michigan vs. Detroit – The Titans can get back on track with a win
8. Loyola at Creighton – A very tough match-up, Ramblers should fall in Omaha
9. Youngstown State at UC Riverside – Tough trip west for the Penguins
10. UIC at Evansville – Flames struggle on the road, might lose this bottom feeder battle

Overall it looks like the Horizon League could go 7-3 in BracketBusters this weekend. It will be a lot of fun to watch – well at least what few games are available on tv. Butler is the only Horizon League team on national television this season.

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings

1. Butler 15-0
2. Cleveland State 9-4
3. Green Bay 9-5
4. Wright State 9-5
5. Valparaiso 8-7
6. Detroit 7-7
7. Milwaukee 5-8
8. Loyola (IL) 4-10
9. Youngstown State 2-12
10. UIC 2-12

Top Storylines

Going for perfection: Butler is 15-0 and has officially clinched the Horizon League regular season. This comes with two benefits. 1) The tournament will be played in Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, and 2) The Bulldogs will be one of two top seeds that receive a double-bye. The Bulldogs have a 66.5% chance of finishing the regular conference season undefeated. A game at home against Siena in the Bracket Busters could be fun.

Streaking Vikings: Cleveland State is the Horizon League’s second hottest team. The Vikings have won their last six Horizon League games. Now of course they have to play Butler on Saturday, but it’s been a very good run.

Chicago showdown: UIC and Loyola are near the bottom of the league standings, but it won’t stop their rivalry game on Saturday night from being a heated affair. The Ramblers went to the Pavilion and took down the Flames in the last match-up. Now they get a return game in Rogers Park.

The race for #2:  As you can see there are now 6 teams that are holding out hope of making the #2 spot in the conference standings and earning a double-bye opposite Butler. Here’s my best guess at their chances from what I’ve seen this season:

Team: Remaining Games, Predicted Record

• Wright State: Green Bay, Detroit, @Youngstown State, @Cleveland State; 12-6
• Cleveland State: Butler, @Green Bay, @Milwaukee, Detroit, Wright State; 11-7
• Green Bay: @Wright State, Cleveland, @UIC, @Loyola; 11-7 (would lose tie-breaker to Cleveland State)
• Valparaiso: @Youngstown State, Loyola, Butler; 10-8
• Detroit: Milwaukee, @Wright State, @Cleveland State, @Youngstown State; 9-9

Of course the Horizon League is almost impossible to predict, so who knows if this is actually how it would play out. But if it did the first round would be:

• #10 UIC @ #3 Cleveland State
• #7 Milwaukee @ #6 Detroit
• #9 Youngstown State @ #4 Green Bay
• #8 Loyola @ #5 Valparaiso

The other race in the conference, besides that race for second place, is the race for fifth. Avoiding that 6-7 game would be a good idea for any team that wants to keep playing past the first round. It is going to be a very difficult game combining two teams that will be frustrated to be in that position. After Detroit’s home loss to Green Bay on Thursday, the Titans appeared to be headed towards that game.

Why Can’t Detroit Win the Close Ones?: Detroit is now 7-7 in the Horizon League. The Titans’ seven losses are by a combined 21 points. Yes, they’re losing their games by an average of three points per game in conference (and that includes both Butler games). Detroit also has close losses to Tennessee State and DePaul out of conference. Why can’t the Titans break out and win a close one? They survived against UIC at home on January 30th for their only victory by five points or fewer this season.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues to haunt Detroit down the stretch and ultimately doom their chances of making some noise in the conference tournament. The ironic thing is that Detroit might be the team best equipped to knock Butler off. The Titans have a big frontline that has resulted in a 2-point overtime loss at home and a 5-point road loss to the Bulldogs this season.

Player of the Year Race:  It’s Gordon Hayward of Butler and no one else is particularly close. He’s fourth in the league in scoring and rebounding, but that doesn’t begin to describe his value to the Bulldogs. He just seems to have a knack for making the big play exactly when Butler needs it. It’s worth noting though that he’s scored fewer than 10 points in four conference games. Of course he also scored 22 points and grabbed 17 boards as the Bulldogs officially captured the league regular season title against Youngstown State on Thursday.