Set Your DVR: Week of 11.27.12

Posted by bmulvihill on November 27th, 2012

Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The ACC-Big Ten Challenge on Tuesday/Wednesday nights will give us some of the best non-conference match-ups we’ll see this season. It should be a great battle between two of the top conferences in the nation. We sneak in Kentucky vs. Notre Dame also later this week. Let’s get to the breakdowns.

The ACC-Big Ten Challenge gives us some of the best games of the season so far.

#23 Minnesota at #25 Florida State – 7:15 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPN2 (****)

  • Minnesota comes into this game battle tested from a tough, early non-conference schedule. With the exception of the Gophers’ loss to Duke, Tubby Smith’s squad is winning with defense. Typically, we would say the same thing about Florida State’s defense, but it’s their offense that is winning their games this season. The Seminoles are shooting 56% from two and 41% from three. While Minnesota has only allowed opponents to hit 29.6% of their three-point attempts this season, they have been susceptible to the long ball in their last three outings. Additionally, they have been poor on the defensive glass, allowing teams to grab 37% of their misses. FSU has four players that shoot over 40% from beyond the arc and they are actually taller than the Gophers, particularly in the backcourt. Pay close attention to FSU’s three-point shooting and offensive rebounding in this one. Because Minnesota is not a great shooting team, they are going to have to figure out a way to deal with the Seminoles’ size on the offensive glass. Thus far, the Gophers are grabbing 47.3% of their missed shots on the offensive end, which is good for fourth in the nation. The winner of this game will be the team that owns the offensive glass.

#21 North Carolina State at #5 Michigan  7:30 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPN (*****)

  • Both of these teams are in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage thus far in the season. Three-point shooting will be a key factor in this match-up with both teams hovering right around the 40% mark. The Wolfpack is led by Rodney Purvis and Scott Wood on the outside, shooting 58.8% and 44.8% respectively. Those are the only two players on NC State who have attempted more than 10 three-point shots on the season. The Wolverines, however, have four players – Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas, and Glenn Robinson III – who have attempted 10+ threes and all are shooting at over 30%. Both teams are middle of the pack at defending the outside shot, so it will be interesting to see who is able to take this advantage. While offensive firepower seems to be the key in this game, defense will ultimately determine the winner. Michigan has held all of its opponents under a point per possession this season and has proven it can win ugly against Pittsburgh. NC State is the best offense UM has faced thus far, though, but the question remains if the Wolfpack can hold off the plethora of Wolverines who can score. NC State is coming off a shellacking at the hands of Oklahoma State and a very close win against UNC-Asheville, where they allowed an eFG of 56.3%. If they don’t improve that field goal defense against Michigan, they will get crushed again.
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ACC M5: 11.27.12 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on November 27th, 2012

  1. Raleigh News & Observer: With the ACC/Big Ten Challenge about to tip off tonight and North Carolina preparing to take on top-ranked Indiana, the Tar Heels got some bad news before flying to Bloomington — P.J. Hairston is suffering from a knee sprain and will not travel with the team. Hairston has emerged as the most dangerous man off the bench, playing an athletic inside-out game. Additionally, according to Roy Williams, Hairston has been the only effective small power forward in the experimental small line-up that North Carolina used to surprising effect in Maui. With a road victory against Indiana already a long shot, the absence of Hairston from the lineup will only grow the odds even longer.
  2. Fayetteville Observer: Speaking of missing players, North Carolina State will no longer have the services of Belgian big man Thomas de Thaey when the Wolfpack faces Michigan tonight. The sophomore is returning home to be closer to his father, who has been battling cancer. Considering Mark Gottfried’s apparent fondness for short rotations, it was likely that de Thaey wouldn’t have seen too much playing time on the court at any rate. Given his father’s illness, returning home seems like an easy decision and one that I’m sure the Wolfpack program, fans, and, well, everyone, will readily and gladly support.
  3. Washington Post: Of course, the subplot of Maryland effectively getting a practice conference game against Big Ten foe Northwestern is a juicy story in the context of the big story of realignment, but this game offers up another intriguing storyline: Maryland’s performance on the road. Under Mark Turgeon, the Terps have won only a single true road game, eking out a two-point win at Clemson last February. This match-up against Northwestern is the team’s only true road game before the beginning of conference play, and if Maryland can get the win, it will be a nice symbolic victory that should help give the team confidence before the beginning of ACC play.
  4. Tallahassee Democrat: While Florida State versus Minnesota doesn’t exactly have the glitzy names of some of the other match-ups going on tonight, this game is a big opportunity for two very good teams. The Golden Gophers and Trevor Mbakwe will look to punish the Seminoles on the glass, but Leonard Hamilton has his team ready and excited to take down another higher-ranked foe. Though Minnesota expects to have a marked advantage in rebounding, the turnover trouble that has plagued the Gophers is likely an enticing opening for a Florida State team that thrives on applying defensive pressure.
  5. Real GM: Dan Hanner does it again, this time putting together some interesting historical data to see which coaches thrive during different parts of the season. Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is the headliner with a penchant for early season dominance that impresses year after year, but a number of other ACC coaches show up in his numbers. Virginia’s Tony Bennett also has his team ready to play in the early part of the season, but Hanner’s research also points to a few ACC coaches whose teams are consistently better at the end of the season rather than the beginning. This list includes Roy Williams (UNC), Mark Gottfried (NCSU), and Leonard Hamilton (FSU).
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RTC Top 25: Week 2

Posted by KDoyle on November 26th, 2012

Let’s cut right to the chase: Duke is #1 and Indiana #2. This may upset some, considering Indiana began the season as our #1 team, is a perfect 6-0 with a good win against Georgetown, has perhaps the best offensive attack in college basketball, and has shown little — if any — weakness. But, there is little denying Duke’s resume at this point (more on that after the jump). Two Big East squads—Georgetown and Cincinnati—made power moves up in the rankings after impressive weeks, while two other teams have plummeted right out of the Top 25—UCLA and Memphis. There wasn’t just movement at the top of the rankings, as five new teams have entered the Top 25 after strong showings during “Feast Week.”

This week’s QnD after the jump…

Quick ‘n Dirty Analysis.

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Big 12 Conference Call: November 21 Edition

Posted by Nate Kotisso on November 21st, 2012

Welcome to the very first Conference Call on the Big 12 microsite! The Conference Call is a new feature where Danny (@dspewak), Kory (@Kory_Carpenter) and Nate (@natekotisso) answer five important questions related to Big 12 basketball. This week, we’ll talk about how many Big 12 teams we think make the tournament, Texas’ early season woes, conference realignment and much more. 

Travis Ford and the Cowboys are off to a 4-0 start. (Sue Ogrocki/AP)

  1. If you’re not Texas Tech or TCU, it seems you’ve got a shot at making the tournament this season. How many Big 12 teams will hear their name called on Selection Sunday?
  2. Texas has struggled mightily at this week’s EA Sports Maui Invitational. Is it time to start doubting the Longhorns?
  3. Conference realignment is back! (dontcha love it?) If you were Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby or a president/chancellor of member university, which school would you voucher to join the league?
  4. Big 12 players have had the lion’s share of outstanding performances early on in the year. Which player do you think had the most impressive individual performance so far?
  5. Who is the best “State” team in the Big 12, Iowa, Kansas or Oklahoma?

***

1. If you’re not Texas Tech or TCU, it seems you’ve got a shot at making the tournament this season. How many Big 12 teams will hear their name called on Selection Sunday?

Danny Spewak: At this point, I’d say the Big 12 will send five or six teams to the NCAA Tournament. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC M5: 11.21.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 21st, 2012

  1. Raleigh News & Observer: North Carolina lost to Butler in the Maui Invitational, sending fans on a roller coaster ride bottoming out down 29 points, peaking at a last gasp comeback that cut the deficit to six, before settling somewhere in between. The Tar Heels were pushed around all night, and defended the perimeter woefully. About the only positive to take away from the game was the last 12 minutes, but North Carolina has to get a lot tougher and can’t coast after big wins.
  2. Sports Illustrated: Mike Krzyzewski wants to “circle wagons” and figure out who’s staying in the ACC. It’s clear the Maryland move caught Coach K by surprised, and he’s concerned about the stability of the conference. Before the powwow he may want to wait to see if the Terrapins manage to reduce the $50 million exit fee: if they can, Krzyzewski is absolutely right to question the conference stability. It sounds like Coach K wants reaffirmation from Clemson and Florida State and supports replacing Maryland with Connecticut or Louisville.
  3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Tony Bennett really likes the progress of his freshmen, three of whom made up the Cavaliers’ top scoring trio in their win over North Texas. Bennett’s system definitely has a steep learning curve, so expect the frosh to get better as they understand their roles in the pack-line defense. Long story short: don’t write off Virginia finishing in the top half of the conference just yet. This team still has a long way to go, but it’s improved a lot even just through six games.
  4. Tomahawk Nation: Props to Michael Rogner for charting an efficiency-based +/- for Florida State that takes into account garbage time and other anomalies. While the charts need more data to help take care of outliers (for instance, Terrance Shannon likely won’t play as well most games as he did against St. Joseph’s), but the data is still interesting. It confirms the Seminoles are a more consistent offensive team so far this season, and freshman point guards Montay Brandon and Devon Bookert have a lot to do with it.
  5. Miami Herald: This story is mostly about football, but the NCAA just issued a brutal ultimatum to former Miami players. Mark Ennis described it best: “The NCAA is holding a gun to Miami’s head and telling former players ‘give us what we want or she dies.'” Barry Jackson reported that the NCAA sent out a letter to Miami players telling players that the NCAA will assume their guilty if they don’t talk. This definitely feels like a intimidation tactic by the NCAA to get evidence.
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Conferences They Are A-Changin: What it Means for the Big 12

Posted by Nate Kotisso on November 20th, 2012

Happy Tuesday before Thanksgiving, everyone! Because it’s not a happy one at the Big East or ACC offices. On Monday, Maryland and Rutgers announced their departures for the Big Ten Conference. Maryland will join in 2014 while Rutgers would like to join in 2014 but they may have to wait 27 months or negotiate an early exit with the Big East. So what does this all mean for the Big 12, and more importantly, Big 12 basketball?

What will the Big 12 do?

According to Jeremy Fowler of CBS Sports, the ACC is already talking to Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and South Florida to replace Maryland as its 14th all-sports team. That’s not good news for the Big 12, considering the longstanding rumors that have the Cardinals and Bearcats linked to the 10-team league. But what’s most interesting is that the Big 12 is reportedly content with its 10-team format. Here’s how I read that line: the Big 12 is in fact NOT content with 10 teams and they’re finally trying to turn flirtation with other schools into committed relationships, or at least monogamous ones. So other than Louisville and Cincinnati, which schools would the Big 12 be interested in going after? Here are a couple suggestions:

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ACC M5: 11.20.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 20th, 2012

  1. CBS Sports and USA Today: Surprising no one, conference realignment chatter dominated ACC press with Maryland‘s official announcement that it would accept the Big Ten’s invitation and join that league in 2014. But where should the ACC go from here? Matt Norlander argues that the league should embrace its basketball roots looking forward. Dan Wolken spoke with David Wilkins, chairman of Clemson’s Board of Trustees, who added, “I’d say that Clemson is very excited about our football program right now and we’d like to see a team added that adds to the football prowess of the ACC, but that’s a decision for the presidents to make based on a lot of factors.” Stability-wise, the conference needs to put football first or not expand at all. Basketball just doesn’t make enough money for conferences with the way the NCAA television deals are currently set up.
  2. Sporting News: Mike DeCourcy is not impressed by Maryland’s decision. He makes a good point that despite why decisions are made (ahem, money), we’ll evaluate their success by how Maryland sports do in the Big Ten. The going theory has been that more money means more success, but DeCourcy makes an interesting point that Maryland is making itself into a geographic outlier. It’s true that in the age of chartered jets teams might not care as much about close road games, but parents and potential recruits do.
  3. Tallahassee Democrat: Terrance Shannon loves coming off the bench so much that he went to Leonard Hamilton before the season to make sure he could still fill the Seminoles’ sixth man role. Luckily for Florida State, Shannon does well coming off the bench. The best asset he has is his motor, which makes him invaluable as a substitute by adding energy to the game. It’s rare that you see a college player who’s both motivated and willing to not start, which speaks to Shannon’s maturity and one reason why Hamilton’s program has been so successful the last few years.
  4. Charlotte Observer: NC State got a harsh reality check from a good Oklahoma State team over the weekend. The game saw miserable performances out of veterans Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie. Joe Giglio damningly noted that Leslie looked like “old Leslie,” the immature and indecisive Leslie from his freshman year. Brown struggled on both ends of the floor, with his defense probably reflecting a general level of frustration.
  5. SBNation: And one last shout-out to conference expansion. Jason Kirk lays out a very good argument for the ACC taking Louisville over Connecticut: (1) it gives Notre Dame a close geographic rival while making the conference footprint more contiguous; (2) it’s a much better football program with decent local recruiting; and (3) the Cardinal athletic department is just more profitable than Connecticut’s by a long shot. The only drawback is Louisville’s academics, but right now the ACC has a very strong academic brand and needs to buck up its football cachet, not the other way around.
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Maryland Secedes From the ACC, Will Join Big Ten in 2014

Posted by mpatton on November 19th, 2012

Maryland is leaving the ACC to join the Big Ten along with Rutgers. Unsurprisingly the move sparked mixed opinions from all sides. Maryland’s move is the first time since South Carolina left in 1971 that a charter member of the ACC has joined another conference, which says a lot about the current state of college athletics. Objectively–at least in the long run — Maryland’s administration made the obvious decision. The Terrapin athletic department has financially struggled mightily the last few years, and the Big Ten offers significantly more television revenue than the ACC. The caveat is the ACC’s recently negotiated $50 million exit fee (which Maryland and Florida State opposed at the time), a fee so steep will decimate the athletic department’s short-term finances.

Thinking of Maryland In the Big Ten Doesn’t Feel Right, But It’s the New Reality (credit: SI.com)

Look for the ACC to really stick to its guns regarding the exit fee, but Maryland probably won’t pay the full penalty. Contracts require diligence in order to be enforced, and Maryland will probably argue that the massive exit fee is punitive — especially considering the fact that the school didn’t support the massive exit fee hike. That said, if other schools smell instability and see a way around the exit fee, the ACC could be in trouble. If Maryland is forced to pay the full exit fee, the only two feasible options are a massive capital campaign or some sort of assistance from a third party (including the Big Ten).

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A “Two Headed Monster” at Point Guard for Florida State

Posted by KDoyle on November 17th, 2012

Kevin Doyle is an RTC correspondent, you can find him on Twitter @KLDoyle11. He filed this report after Friday night’s game between Florida State and BYU in New York City.

Bernard James may have been Florida State’s best player last season, but filling the void at point guard after graduation claimed Luke Loucks was the bigger task for Leonard Hamilton entering the 2012-13 campaign. Going by the numbers, Loucks’ would appear replaceable (7.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.3 APG), while James nearly averaged a double-double and without question was the Seminoles’ top rebounder. But, like any basketball fan knows, an offense’s success begins and ends with the point guard. One wouldn’t think that the Seminole backcourt would be a looming issue entering the season with potential All-American Michael Snaer coming back for his senior year, but it has been a question Leonard Hamilton has grappled with in the early going.

Leonard Hamilton Got the Kind of Performance He Hoped For Friday Night

For Florida State, you see, they didn’t know who their point guard would be heading into the season. Michael Snaer is an exceptional guard in every facet: shooter, passer, defender, ball-handler, you name it. There’s a reason, after all, he is a candidate for an All-America team at season’s end. But, Snaer is not a point guard. Ian Miller is the prototypical steady two guard — despite conjecture that he would slide in and fill the point guard hole — someone who can hit the open shot and is regarded as more of a playmaker than facilitator.

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Set Your DVR: Weekend Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 16th, 2012

Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The second weekend in the college hoops season cools off a bit and settles into some of the preseason tournaments. While the different tourneys play out over the weekend, there are several games you should keep an eye on as we head into Feast Week. Let’s get to the breakdowns.

Game of the Weekend

#22 Notre Dame vs. Saint Joseph’s – 9:30 PM EST, Friday on TruTV HD (****)

Notre Dame needs guard Eric Atkins to pick up his scoring against Saint Joseph’s

  • After a 2-0 start, Notre Dame faces its toughest challenge of the young season in a Saint Joseph’s team returning 99% of its minutes from last season. Thus far, the Irish is not getting the production they have come to expect from their two starting guards Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant. Only Grant has reached double figures once in the two games they have played. Both players averaged 12 points per game last season and coach Mike Brey needs every bit of those 12 points for his Irish team to meet expectations. Since St. Joe’s will still be without suspended guard Carl Jones, look to see if the Irish guards are able to take advantage. It’s critical that they do, because Notre Dame forward Jack Cooley and center Garrick Sherman will face a tough test against the Hawks front line. It will be interesting to see how Cooley and Sherman respond to the much more athletic forwards than they have seen thus far in 2012.
  • While Saint Joseph’s blew out Yale in its first game of the season, Phil Martelli needs to be a little concerned with his team’s offensive performance. The Hawks averaged less than a point per possession, shot a 45.9% eFG, and were only 3-14 from three in that game. Obviously, missing leading scorer Jones is a major factor, but they can ill afford to have another poor offensive showing against the Irish. Look to see if guard Chris Wilson can improve on his three points in 36 minutes and provide St. Joe’s with some backcourt scoring. Guard Langston Galloway was able to drop 20 points against Yale, so keep an eye on his ability to maintain that level of scoring against a much tougher opponent.
  • This should be a close battle between two experienced teams. If St. Joe’s is going to beat Notre Dame, it’ll need to do it on defense.  The key will be the ability of St. Joe’s forwards Halil Kanacevic, Ronald Roberts, and C.J. Aiken to neutralize Cooley and Sherman down low and grab defensive boards. If Notre Dame gets its  typical scoring production from Atkins and Grant, it should win this game. If not, Martelli and the Hawks will come away with a nice win for the Atlantic 10 against its rival Big East.

More Great Hoops

Florida State vs. BYU – 7:00 PM EST, Friday on TruTV HD (****)

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