Justin Glover is the RTC correspondent for the Southern Conference.Click here for all of our 2009-10 Season Preview materials.
Predicted Order of Finish:
North Division- Two Divisions in the SoCon
1. Western Carolina (14-6 SoCon) 22-11 Overall
2. Samford (12-8 SoCon) 16-15 Overall
3. Applachian State (10-10 SoCon) 17-14 Overall
4. Chattanooga (9-11 SoCon) 15-17 Overall
5. Elon (8-12 SoCon) 16-16 Overall
6. UNC Greensboro (3-17 SoCon) 4-26 Overall
South Division- Two Divisions in the SoCon
1. College of Charleston (16-4 SoCon) 24-9 Overall
2. Davidson (12-8 SoCon) 19-14 Overall
3. Citadel (11-9 SoCon) 17-15 Overall
4. Wofford (9-11 SoCon) 16-17 Overall
5. Georgia Southern (7-13 SoCon) 11-20 Overall
6. Furman (6-14 SoCon) 10-21 Overall
North Division
Western Carolina (13-5 SoCon) 22-11 overall
Samford (11-7 SoCon) 16-15 overall
Applachian State (9-9 SoCon) 17-14 overall
Chattanooga (8-10 SoCon) 15-17 overall
Elon (7-11 SoCon) 16-16 overall
UNC-Greensboro (2-16 SoCon) 4-26 overall
South Division
College of Charleston (15-3 SoCon) 24-9 overall
Davidson (11-7 SoCon) 19-14 overall
Citadel (10-8 SoCon) 17-15 overall
Wofford (8-10 SoCon) 16-17 overall
Georgia Southern (6-12 SoCon) 11-20 overall
Furman (5-13 SoCon) 10-21 overall
All-Conference Team:
Andrew Goudelock (G) – College of Charleston (Jr.) – 16.7 ppg
Cameron Wells (G) – The Citadel (Jr.) – 15.6 ppg
Harouna Mutombo(F) – Western Carolina (So.) – 14.4 ppg
Bryan Friday (F) – Samford (Sr.) – 12.5 ppg
Noah Dahlman (C) – Wofford (Jr.) – 17.8 ppg
6th Man.Jake Robinson – Western Carolina (Sr) – Led the team in three pointers made (60) and attempted (167), coming off the bench in 19 games.
Impact Newcomer.Rashad Wright – College of Charleston – Intimidating presence inside with his 6’9″ frame, averaged 10.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and four blocks a game at South Kent High School last season will look to contribute to a team that is lacking in size.
What You Need to Know. Although this conference lacks the star power of a certain recently departed, diminutive guard from Davidson, the conference is not devoid of talent as witnessed by the fact that the aforementioned guard didn’t even make the NCAA tournament last year. While the Wildcats will certainly fall off this year, don’t be surprised to see the second most famous basketball personality in the league last year (Bobby Cremins) getting plenty of airtime in March.
Predicted Champion: College of Charleston (NCAA Seed: #15) – Made it to the SoCon Championship game last season after a Cinderella type run knocking off the favorite in Davidson on their way to the finals. They have always been an athletic team that uses stellar guard play to offset lack of size inside. With the starting back court of Tony White Jr., who scored 31 points in the SoCon finals game against Chattanooga, and junior all-conference candidate Andrew Goudelock who led the team in points per game and three pointers. CofC should be the team to beat in the Southern Conference this season with close to 75% of its scoring coming back from a team that made the finals in the conference tournament.
#1 UConn vs. #16 Chattanooga
We all know what UCONN is capable of, which is nothing short of a National Championship. So get to know the Mocs and their leading scorer Stephen McDowell, who paced Chattanooga with 18.6ppg, shot 43.4% from three, and scored 30 or more in three games this year. The Mocs have two other double-figure scorers besides the 5’11” guard, and pulled off quite the upset just to make it here after finishing fifth in the Southern Conference. UConn looks in supreme control, although that Georgetown loss still worries me. What was up with that anyway, Husky fans?
#8 BYU vs. #9 Texas A&M
The Cougars put together a fine 25-7 season and tied two other teams for a share of the Mountain West title, but lost to San Diego State in the tournament final. BYU certainly has the tools and talent to move on from the first round, but just didn’t have to play the rigorous schedule that A&M did this season. Finishing fourth in the Big XII means more to me than winning a three-way share of the Mountain West. This could turn out to be a hidden gem, as BYU can certainly put up the points with three players averaging over 16.0 per.
#5 Purdue vs. #12 Northern Iowa
The hot thing to do right now is pretend you know anything about Northern Iowa. What you should know is that the Panthers can run with the big guns, beating both Auburn and San Diego State before finishing behind only Creighton in the Missouri Valley. They were also crushed mightily by Marquette, so its somewhat of a stretch to think they can open strong against the Big Ten Tourney champion Boilermakers. A healthy Robbie Hummel and a streaking Purdue squad means trouble for the fashionable upset pick.
#4 Washington vs. #13 Mississippi State
This is my upset special, maybe because I think the SEC was underrated this year and maybe because I was extremely disappointed in the Pac-10 this year. Probably both. Regardless, Mississippi State is riding a six-game winning streak and the high of stealing the SEC Tourney championship. Now, Georgia shocked their way into the Tourney last season only to get blown out, and Arkansas did the same thing the year prior. But those teams didn’t have Jarvis Varnardo or freshman point Dee Bost. Washington was a very good team all year long but MSU has the defense to slow down their phenomIsaiah Thomas, and therefore, the Huskies.
#7 California vs. #10 Maryland
This game is being billed as a battle of the minds between Mike Montgomeryand Gary Williams, but it’s really more a battle of two talented teams who weren’t able to put things together like they’re capable of doing. Yet. The Golden Bears do not rebound or defend particularly well, which is worrisome. But they’ve got very capable scorers in Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher. Cal had a pretty cake non-conference schedule, excluding two games (which they lost) against Mizzou and Florida State. Look for the Bears to resume the form they showed in big wins over Arizona State and Washington. I know I said earlier that I was down on the Pac-10 this year, but I’m even more down on teams that lose big games by 41 points and post a losing conference record. I don’t care if it’s the ACC, good teams just don’t let that happen.
#2 Memphis vs. #15 Cal St. Northridge
Both teams won their respective conferences by running the floor, relying on their guards for a bulk of the scoring, and getting solid rebounding from their bigs. Memphis, however, does all of these things much, much better than Northridge does. The Matadors have dealt with a lot after the arrest of three players (including their top scorer) in January and a car accident that nearly killed their point guard. None of those players have played since their incidents, and Northridge got by on outbursts from bench players. But they’re playing a Memphis team that could not be hotter, and last year we learned that playing in CUSA doesn’t mean you can’t make the title game.
This edition of Behind the Lines is emanating from Las Vegas. The Obsessed With Sports crew will be enjoying the first weekend of the tournament from the sports betting capital of the world.
Thursday, March 19th
The 8 versus 9 games are very close, as they should be.
Butler (9) vs Louisiana State (8) -2.5
Behind The Line: Take a look at the over on this one–it’s at about 127. Butler has consistently been going over numbers in this area while LSU scores a lot more than other Horizon League teams.
Texas A&M (9) vs Brigham Young (8) -2
Behind The Line: Both teams have been very good as far as covering as of late. They are a combined 14-6 in their last 20 games. In this case, the spread might play a more minimal role.
Gonzaga is no stranger to being a double digit favorite.
Akron (13) vs Gonzaga (4) -12.5
Behind The Line: Gonzaga is 7-6 this season when they have been favored by double digits.
Connecticut is also familiar with large spreads.
Chattanooga (16) vs Connecticut (1) -20
Behind The Line: UConn is a misleading 3-7 when they are double digit favorites. I say this because a number of their non-conference games didn’t even have lines because they weer favored by so much. Also playing a large role is the competition in the Big East, against whom the Huskies were still favored by more than 10.
According to Bodog the longest shots to win the whole shebang are Binghamton, Morehead State, Morgan State, Radford, Robert Morris and Chattanooga at 1750:1, respectively.
Location: Chattanooga, Tennessee Conference: Southern — Tournament Champion Coach: John Shulman, hired 2004. Record at Chattanooga = 90-71. 08-09 Record: 18-16 (11-9) Last 12 Games: 8-4, won 3. Best Win: College of Charleston, 80-69 on 3/9/09. Worst Loss: at Furman, 70-72 on 2/7/09. Off. Efficiency Rating: 103.3 (132nd) Def. Efficiency Rating: 107.8 (288th)
Nuts n Bolts
Star Player(s): Stephen McDowell
Unsung Hero: 6’2″ senior guard Keyron Sheard, 7.1 ppg but leads team with 3.8 apg in just over 26 minutes/game.
Potential NBA Draft Pick: None.
Key Injuries: No significant injuries.
Depth: 27.6% mins (247th)
Achilles Heel: Overall defense. Teams shoot 44.2% (204th nationally) from the field against the Mocs. 3-point defense is even more suspect, with teams shooting 36.7% (292nd nationally).
Will Make a Deep Run if…: God becomes a Mocs fan.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: …the Mocs don’t turn up the defensive effort for every second of 40 minutes.
NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2005. Streak: 1 Best NCAA Finish: 1997 Sweet 16. Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): N/A
Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: None Distance to First Round Site: 733 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: The women’s basketball program. The women’s team has won the SoCon regular season title nine years in a row.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Terrell Owens went there (played in 1995 NCAA Tournament).
Prediction: First round and out.
Major RTC stories:ATB: 9 Down, 56 To Go
Preview written by: John Stevens, Rush The Court.
UConn (# 1, West, Philadelphia pod) Vs. Chattanooga (#16) Thurs., 3/19 at 3 PM Vegas Line: UConn, -20.5
Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv). If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.
General Profile Location: Storrs, CT Conference: Big East, at-large Coach: Jim Calhoun, 553-204 at UConn; 801-341 overall 08-09 Record: 27-4, 15-3 Last 12 Games: 9-3 Best Win: 68-51, at Louisville, Feb. 2 Worst Loss: 74-63, vs. Georgetown, Dec. 29 Off. Efficiency Rating: 114; 20th Def. Efficiency Rating: 85.6; 3rd
Nuts ‘n Bolts Star Player(s): PG A.J. Price, 14 ppg, 4.7 apg, 40.8% 3-point shooting; C Hasheem Thabeet 13.7 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 4.6 bpg; PF Jeff Adrien 13.6 ppg, 10.0 rpg Unsung Hero: PG Kemba Walker (8.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.7 apg off the bench) Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Hasheem Thabeet, projected No. 2 pick; A.J. Price, No. 32, Jeff Adrien, No. 39 Key Injuries: SG Jerome Dyson, torn meniscus, out for season Depth: 25.9% (287th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves Achilles Heel: Depth. UConn is essentially a six-man team without Dyson, getting only cameos of late from PF Gavin Edwards and SG Scottie Haralson. And Calhoun has said recently that Price simply cannot be a 35-minute player because of his ACL injury last year. Four players (Dyson, JUCO transfer C Charles Okwandu and would-be freshmen SF Ater Majok and SG Nate Miles) who would have contributed in the tournament are (in order) injured, academically ineligible, ineligible due to transcript issues and playing in junior college for violating a restraining order. Will Make a Deep Run if…: Price carries the offense on his back and streaky SF Stanley Robinson finds a way to play like a superstar in one or two games. Will Make an Early Exit if…: Thabeet gets in foul trouble and the guards can’t buy a bucket.
NCAA History Last Year Invited: 2008, lost to San Diego in the first round, 70-69 in OT Streak: 2nd year Best NCAA Finish: 1999, 2004 national champions Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.47. On average, the Huskies win 0.47 more games than would be expected based on their seed compared to historical averages.
Other Six Degrees to Detroit: UConn fans want payback against the Motor City for the Huskies’ 2001 NIT second round loss to Detroit Mercy in Storrs. That was the last time UConn took part in the second-tier tournament. I’m sure UConn fans were torn up about it and have thirsted for revenge ever since, although I was 13 and living in another state and a St. John’s fan at the time. Distance to First Round Site: 239 miles, which is about five hours if you’re on the NJ Turnpike School’s Claim to Fame: UConn became the first Division I school to win national titles in both men’s and women’s basketball in the same year in 2004. Since Connecticut sports fans have no pro team to root for (though they still pine for the miserable Hartford Whalers), the UConn men and women are pretty much it. Off the court, Meg Ryan and Moby are apparently listed as alumni on Wikipedia. I do not wish to claim Moby as one of our own. School Wishes It Could Forget: You would think that prior to the ’99 championship, UConn students had no reason to riot. You’d be wrong. Back in 1998, more than 100 students were arrested after flipping and burning a car, throwing rocks and bottles at police and being pepper sprayed by said police, as a part of the annual Spring Weekend (the weekend prior to the last week of spring classes). Unfortunately for car-burning enthusiasts, the traditional weekend party has become slightly more civil since then. Prediction: With Dyson, it was Detroit or bust. Without Dyson – and with that ‘haven’t-won-a-postseason-game-since-2006’ cloud hanging over their heads – I think most UConn fans would be mildly content with the Sweet 16, and satisfied with a trip to the regional final. UConn has Final Four talent, but no one’s quite sure if they have the makeup to win four, five or six straight in March.
Ed. note – check back often as this post will be updated regularly…
How about those brackets? If you’re like us, you’ve already figured a way that just about every team will both win and lose its first round game. For example, Arizona has better talent than Utah, but which Wildcat team will show up – the one from mid-season or the one from the last three weeks? Decisions, decisions…
To help you think more clearly about your bracket as well as to institute some fun into the analysis that you’re no doubt already obsessing over, we have put together a nice breakdown of each region for you. We’ll give you the teams that are overseeded, underseeded, and are guaranteed to advance. The best games to watch in the first round and in the later rounds. The juiciest match-ups for purists and casual fans. Some sleeper teams for both the Sweets and the Four. Upsets. Thanks to the RTC Region correspondents, basically, you name it, we’ve got it.
We will be doing Boom Goes the Dynamite! all weekend starting with Thursday’s games, as appropriate. Since our manpower will be lower than usual, we’ll be relying on you guys to help us out in the comments as we move through the first 48 games.
We are also privileged to have RTC Live at the Philadelphia pod this weekend. The games we will be covering are:
Here are the links for each QnD Region Analysis (+ correspondent), which will take you to another page on the site called 2009 Tourney Previews (which can also be accessed through the handy-dandy tab above):
2009 Team Tourney Previews: We enlisted the help of our legion of correspondents and readers to put together previews for all 65 teams in order to give you the most insightful analysis you will find anywhere. We’ll be uploading previews over the next 24 hours so check back frequently.
Four More Automatic Bids Tonight. We’re combining this feature tonight because every game of interest involved a conference tournament final. The CAA, MAAC, SoCon and WCC all crowned champions tonight, and only one of the four would be considered a surprise. The other three will all be very tough outs for whichever team(s) have to face up against them in the first round of the NCAAs next week.
#6 – VCU (24-9, 14-4) – Anthony Grant’s VCU Rams rode a home crowd to a 71-50 obliteration of George Mason for its second CAA championship in the last three seasons. You already know Eric Maynor from his game-winner over Duke in 2007’s first round; also keep in mind his 6’9 frontcourt mate Larry Sanders (not the host of a dated HBO show), who dominated GMU with 18/20/7 blks tonight – this talented duo will make any higher seed nervous on Selection Sunday.
Projected Seed: #10
Something to Remember: VCU wasn’t a good road team this year, going 7-6 compared to 11-3 two years ago when the Rams last made the Dance, but they were 2-1 against the RPI top fifty (an 11-pt loss against Oklahoma).
This is Why We Love Championship Week (photo credit: AP/Steve Helber)
#7 – Chattanooga (18-16, 11-9) – This is exactly why conferences are moving away from penalizing high seeds from playing on opponents’ home floors in conference tournaments – instead of having a Davidson in the NCAAs with a chance to win a game or two, the SoCon will send Chattanooga to become cannon fodder for a #1 seed. Chattanooga came into the SoCon Tourney three days ago as a team with a losing record – tonight they left it with more than a winning record; they also got a ticket to the Big Dance by virtue of their 80-69 win over College of Charleston (who may have still been feeling the effects of knocking out Davidson yesterday). The Mocs used a 20-0 run bridging the half to build a commanding lead that left CofC shellshocked.
Projected Seed: #16
Something to Remember: Chattanooga started the season 2-8, and has one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the nation (#296). Take the over.
#8 – Gonzaga (26-5, 14-0) – The Zags made quick work of a St. Mary’s team that still looks a little lost while Patty Mills tries to return to form from his wrist injury, defeating the Gaels 83-58. Six players reached double figures for the Zags, led by Josh Heytvelt’s 17/6. Gonzaga won its nineteenth in twenty tries, with the only defeat coming at the hands of a red-hot Memphis team in February. It’s definitely difficult to ascertain whether the ‘potential Zags’ have crossed over into actualization, but if things are clicking and they continue to play strong defense (#5 nationally), the Zags are a darkhorse for the Final Four.
Projected Seed: #4
Something to Remember: The Zags are the #1 team in America in 2-pt defense (38.9%), but when the Zags struggle (and lose), they also have a tendency for poor shooting – Memphis, Arizona, Utah and Portland St. all held them under 43% shooting from the field.
#9 – Siena (26-7, 16-2) – Siena was the best team in the MAAC, and after what the Saints did to Vandy in last year’s first round of the NCAAs, nobody is going to want to see Fran McCaffery’s team in their pod. Tonight they held off a good Niagara team that had given them one of their two conference losses behind Kenny Hasbrouck, who shook off a 1-10 first half to score 17 second-half points on his way to 19/6/3 stls. This is a dangerous team – they return the bulk of last year’s squad, and they were competitive early in the season in losses at Kansas, Tennessee and Pittsburgh.
Projected Seed: #9
Something to Remember: Sienais an offensively balanced team, with six players averaging between 8-15 ppg, and all six of those players having at least one game of 20+ this year. Who do you stop?
———————————————————————
QnD Conf Tourney Update.
The Big East, MAC, MEAC and WAC begin their tourneys tomorrow, but there are three more auto-bids in store.
Story of the Night. For the life of me I cannot remember, what made us think that we were wise and we’d never compromise, for the life of me I cannot believe, we’d ever die for these sins, we were merely freshmen… (h/t Verve Pipe ca. 1997) Ok, we’re already sick of talking about this year’s freshman class, but GOOD GOD are these youngsters talented or what? The idea that college hoops was somehow “better off” when kids were going preps-to-pros looks a little ridiculous now, doesn’t it? We’re not necessarily fans of one-and-done either, but we have a sneaky feeling that during the next CBA between the NBA Players Assn. and the owners, the rule will change to two years post-HS as to when a player can declare for the draft. We can’t wait to get these guys in college for more than a year.
Things We Saw. So given the SOTN, we’ll start with a game we didn’t actually see, #11 Indiana v. Chattanooga (see below vid). Out of all the frosh, the player we’ve been most excited to see has been E-Giddy – no disrespect to Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley or anyone else, but Eric Gordon has been the guy who seems most likely to make our jaws drop. We still haven’t actually seen him, of course, but look at this debut line – 33/6/4 on 9-15 shooting (7-11 from three). Plus, some of those threes on the highlights were about 6 feet behind the line – kid has mad range. What’s more is that Kelvin Sanctions’ team needed it, because the Hoosiers were down 4 at the half to a game Chattanooga team. DJ White added 17/4/2 blks in the winning effort, and yeah, IU showed some areas for improvement (rebounding), but make no mistake about it, this is probably the best inside/outside tandem in the country and a huge reason why we have Indiana going to the F4 next April (Indiana 99, Chattanooga 79). Moving to games we actually viewed, #14 Duke was impressive tonight – better than we’ve given them credit for. The thing about the Devils (esp. at home) is that they’re absolutely going to terrorize people defensively with their m2m defense and their traps. Traps lead to turnovers, turnovers lead to dunks and threes, dunks and threes lead to an avalanche of points and a rocking CIS, and before New Mexico St. anyone knows it, you’re already down twenty and your players are completely befuddled and rattled. That’s how Duke plays, and therefore, the only way to beat the Devils at home is to treasure possession of the ball and avoid those demoralizing runs. NMSU had 26 turnovers and allowed Duke to hit 13 threes tonight – how do you think that’s going to end for them? We do still wonder about Duke’s lack of interior size, though (Duke 86, New Mexico St. 61). Tonight’s #11 Oregon-W. Michigan game exhibits why we’re so high on the Ducks this year. Four of their five starters (Taylor, Porter, Hairston and Leunen) can lead the scoring column on any given night. Tonight it was Hairston’s turn, as he went for 29 on 9-11 shooting (3-3 from three). Not many teams have that kind of skilled and experienced offensive balance that they can throw at you every night. Now… defense might be their achilles heel. The Ducks did give up 58 pts in the second half tonight, and it’s hard for us to believe a team that gives up that many pts to anyone is a legitimate contender, but maybe Ernie Kent can shore that up as the season progresses (Oregon 97, Western Michigan 88).
[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.439745&w=425&h=350&fv=]
Other games we caught briefly. LSU once again brings out some lineup of five jumping jacks ranging in height from 6’4 to 6’10, and not one of them has the first clue how to play basketball (thanks John Brady!). Another rook who is getting no hype but is in the Stromile Swift/Tyrus Thomas mold is Anthony Randolph. He very nearly put up a trip-dub in his first game as a Tiger (19/13/6 blks) (LSU 72, SE Louisiana 62). We tried to watch some of #13 Texas’ debut w/o Kevin Durant, but the pace put us to sleep. We heard that DJ Augustin led the way with 19/2/4 assts (Texas 58, UT-San Antonio 37). We also watched a little bit of Ohio St.’s first game since the Findlay disaster, and it appeared that the Buckeyes were getting Matta’s message. Even though four players scored in double figures led by David Lighty (17/8/4), we really wonder if OSU has any depth to speak of this year (Ohio St. 91, Wisc-GB 68). #2 UCLA was the nightcap, and even though Kevin Love had good numbers (21/9), there was one second-half series of shot/block/putback/block/putback where K-Love just didn’t look very explosive around the rim. Thick, yes. Strong, yes. Skilled, yes. But explosive? We were hoping he’d power through and dunk on someone like that when he held position to the rim. Didn’t happen (UCLA 83, Youngstown St. 52).
Interesting Scores. Boston College 68, Florida Atlantic 62. BC might be in for a really rough year. Syracuse 97, Siena 89. What is UP with those horrid Cuse unis (see below vid)? Oh, and rook Jonny Flynn (28/5/9 assts) looks like he’ll be a fun one for Boeheim. Maryland 70, Hampton 64. This one didn’t surprise us that it was close – we’re not sure what to expect from the Terps this year, but we know that Hampton is a good team.
On Tap Today (all times EST). 53 games, but not very many interesting ones. The best ones are either not televised (Toledo-Vandy) or on the freakin’ U (TAMU-ORU).
Michigan St. (NL) v. Chicago St. (ESPNU) 7pm – ho-hum.
Toledo v. Vanderbilt (-5) 7pm – this is a really interesting game for both teams’ at-large profiles.
Syracuse (NL) v. St. Joseph’s (ESPN) 7pm – upset alert – Cuse goes down at home.
Mercer (NL) v. Alabama 7:30pm – Mercer has a chance for another big win at home this time.
Miami (OH) (NL) v. Xavier 8pm – should be a good southern Ohio battle.
Gonzaga (-28) v. Idaho (FCSP) 8pm – we want to see if Daye can keep it up.
Ohio St. (NL) v. Columbia (ESPN) 9pm – an Ivy school not named Penn or Princeton on ESPN?
Texas A&M (-15.5) v. Oral Roberts (ESPNU) 9pm – upset alert – TAMU could lose this game.
UC Irvine (NL) v. Nevada 10:30pm – Nevada needs to regroup and win this game.
UCLA (NL) v. Cal St. San Bernardino (ESPN2) 10:30pm – there won’t be many other D2 teams on ESPN2 this year.
WYN2K. The Southern Conference has a reputation as a league on the rise, and deservedly so. After stellar regular seasons in 2006-07 from division winners Davidson and Appalachian St., including five wins over BCS schools among the league members (the highest total wins among the conferences we’ve rated thus far), the league has its sights on breaking into mid-major territory. If this is to ultimately happen, it will likely be led by Davidson, who with spectacular sophomore guard Stephen Curry, will challenge itself with several elite OOC games this season. Even though the league has been a one-bid conference throughout the 64/65 team era, last year Appalachian St. was very close to earning an at-large NCAA bid before ultimately settling for an NIT berth. And with the name cachet of Bobby Cremins bringing in exceptional recruits at College of Charleston, this league could be knocking on the door for two bids sooner rather than later.
Predicted Champion. Davidson (#9 seed NCAA) is the clear choice here. Davidson returns all five starters from the team that pushed extremely talented and athletic Maryland in the NCAA first round last year (down only four after the last tv timeout), including the aforementioned Curry, who had sick numbers for a freshman guard (22 ppg, 5 rpg, 3 apg, 2 spg, .408 3fg%, .855 ft%) including a run of 26.1 ppg the last ten games. But this is no one-man show. Aside from excellent point guard Jason Richards (#2 nationally in total assists), post men Thomas Sander and Boris Meno also both had outstanding seasons manning the inside, clearing boards and playing tough defense. Coach Bob McKillop also adds two significant recruits – Aaron Bond, who received some Burger Boy consideration last year; and his son, Brendan McKillop, who turned down ACC teams Virginia Tech and NC State to play for his pops. Knowing that Davidson needs a high RPI to offset any chance of being left at the altar should the Wildcats stumble in the conference tourney, McKillop has beefed up the OOC schedule considerably, setting up made-for-tv games with local bullies UNC and Duke in Charlotte and a trip to Raleigh to play NC State. Another road trip will include a game vs. UCLA at the Wooden Classic. All four of those teams are ranked in the Top 25.
Others Considered. We don’t expect another team to push Davidson like Appalachian St. did last season, but if Davidson gets lackadaisical or suffers a significant injury, we’d expect UNC-Greensboro to be next in line. Believe it or not, Curry didn’t win conference POY last year, and it’s not a sure thing that he will this year either. This is due to the fact that UNCG has a 6’6, 230 lb. Sir Charles clone named Kyle Hines returning in the post. Hines has scored in double figures in fifty straight games, and the last time a team went single coverage on him, he dropped 38 on their heads. Although #2 scorer Ricky Hickman is gone, UNCG returns a trio of talented sophomore wing scorers who all showed promise of bright futures. Appalachian St. is another team to watch despite losing three key seniors. The key is that two post men, Donte Minter (who should be healthy this year) and Jeremy Clayton, are returning, and in a league of little size, this could carry them a long way. One concern is the loss of heady PG DJ Thompson, who led the team’s uptempo attack, along with two other guards that saw significant time. Georgia Southern is another team on our radar, simply because they have an all-conference performer in the post (Louis Graham – #18 nationally in defReb%) and at the point guard position (Dwayne Foreman – #32 nationally in asstRate). And although College of Charleston lost three starters and a transfer from a 13-5 team, Bobby Cremins brought in the best recruiting class the league has seen in some time, and we should keep an eye on his team for that reason alone.
Games to Watch. The SoCon is going to a 20-game round robin conference schedule this season, which is the largest we’ve ever seen. Next year when the league expands to twelve teams with the addition of Samford, we suspect there will be a push by league coaches to return to a more reasonable sixteen game schedule. But for this year, it guarantees that Davidson will have to visit every road arena to test its mettle.
Davidson @ Appalachian St. (11.26.07) & Appalachian St. @ Davidson (02.27.08)
UNCG @ Appalachian St. (01.12.08) & Appalachian St. @ UNCG (02.16.08)
Southern Conference Championship Game (03.10.08) ESPN2
RPI Booster Games. We alluded to it above, but the SoCon went 5-38 (.118) against BCS teams last year (Appalachian St. – 2; Davidson – 1; Furman – 1; Wofford – 1). The number will be reduced this year, thanks to the additional conference games, but we expect a similar showing.
UNCG @ Georgia Tech (11.09.07)
Western Carolina @ Cincinnati (11.10.07)
Davidson vs. UNC (Charlotte) (11.14.07) ESPN
College of Charleston @ Arkansas (11.15.07) ESPNU
Chattanooga @ S. Illinois (11.22.07) ESPNU
Wichita St. @ Appalachian St. (11.28.07)
Davidson vs. Duke (Charlotte) (12.01.07) ESPNU
Tennessee @ Chattanooga (12.04.07) ESPNU
Davidson @ UCLA (12.08.07)
Georgia Southern @ Florida (12.15.07)
Western Carolina @ Illinois (12.17.07)
Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. This one is interesting, because if Davidson performs well against the ACC trio + UCLA, has a great SoCon record (like 18-2), yet loses in the conference tourney, we believe that this will be a two-team league.
Neat-o Stat. The Citadel must be one of the most historically horrific basketball programs in the NCAA. It joined the Southern Conference in 1937, and has yet to see its first NCAA or NIT bid. Pat Conroy wrote of his losing season there in the 60s, and not much has changed since. His cousin, Ed Conroy, will begin his second season at the school with what he calls the youngest team in America – 15 freshmen (incl. redshirts), one sophomore, one junior and one senior. Good luck, Ed, you’re going to need it.
64/65-Team Era. The SoCon has been a one-bid league throughout this era, and it will probably remain so this year (unless Davidson lays an egg in the conference tourney). The conference record (3-23, .115) reflects the success of two Tennessee teams, one of which is no longer in the league. In 1992, #14 ETSU defeated #3 Arizona 87-80 in one of Lute Olson’s earlier tankjobs, and in 1997, #14 UT-Chattanooga went to the Sweet 16 by defeating #3 Georgia (the year prior to Tubby Smith winning the NCAA title at Kentucky) 73-70, and #6 Illinois 75-63. Since then the conference (as an average #13.6 seed) has lost ten straight first round games by an average of 13.0 pts – not too encouraging. Still, the last four years show improvement, as the league representative has only lost by an average of 9.8 pts. Below is a nice clip of Curry dropping three of his thirty against Maryland.
Final Thought. This league is all about Davidson this year. The MSM will remember the Wildcats’ performance against Maryland in the NCAA Tournament and pundits like Dickie V. will be touting Curry as a PTPer all season long. Even if Davidson merely pulls one upset against the four ranked teams it plays in the pre-conference schedule, that’ll be enough to entice everyone to claim it as their Cinderella come March. But there are other good teams in this conference, so Davidson shouldn’t be reading its press clippings too closely. Several other teams could surprise much as Davidson did last year, and the level of talent entering the league is rising. It should make for a very fun SoCon season this time around.
