Ryan Kelly may be Duke‘s most important player. Just look at the Blue Devils’ tailspin last season when he went down with an injured foot. In Duke’s losses last year Kelly averaged five points a game (not including the two Ls he missed due to injury). In Duke’s wins he averaged over 13 points a game. That’s a striking difference. Kelly’s averages from last season are identical to this season (11.8 points per game and just over five rebounds per game), though he’s seen a dramatic drop in his efficiency from beyond the arc and at the charity stripe. The free throw problem is probably a short-term slump and his three point percentage will also likely rise but remain below last season’s excellent 41% mark. But don’t let identical output and depressed percentages confuse you: Kelly is an improved player whose game has evolved a lot even since last season.

Duke really missed Ryan Kelly at the end of last season. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

The most quantifiable change has come in his shot selection. Last year over 40 percent of Kelly’s shots were threes; this year just over 30 percent of his attempts come from distance. Rather than taking low-percentage contested twos, Kelly’s mid-range game is flourishing. At 6’11”, he’s virtually impossible for more athletic wings to guard, instead drawing power forwards to the perimeter where he has the advantage. Instead of settling for threes this season, he’s taken one or two steps inside the arc, where he’s nearly automatic. Kelly also appears to be more comfortable operating out around 12-16 feet from the basket, as his turnovers are down this year, potentially because he isn’t forcing things as much.

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Over the next four weeks we’ll be taking a step back and looking at each team in the ACC to assess where each program — and the conference as a whole — stands before we totally turn our attention to the 2013-14 season later this fall. Today’s target: Duke.

Where They Stand Now

Duke fans are still reeling from an embarrassing upset bid from CJ McCollum and the Mountain Hawks of Lehigh, but the sour ending to the team’s season overshadowed a very strong year. The Blue Devils showcased the most flaws  it has had since the 2006-07 Duke team that went 22-11, but they managed to keep winning games. They beat a loaded North Carolina team on the road; they finished second in the conference; and, they won a loaded Maui Invitational. Ryan Kelly‘s late season injury stagnated one of the country’s best offenses, leaving Duke with a decent offense and mediocre defense for its last three games. Long story short, the Blue Devils managed to overachieve and disappoint last season.

Mason Plumlee is the Anchor to Duke’s Young, Potentially Great Front Line.

Who’s Leaving

Austin Rivers went to the NBA, Miles Plumlee graduated, Michael Gbinije transferred to Syracuse, and Andre Dawkins will redshirt. Despite frequent deserved criticism during his playing career, the eldest Plumlee’s strength and athleticism in workouts earned him a guaranteed contract with the Pacers. Gbinije saw very little playing time his freshman season, and with the additions of Rasheed Sulaimon and redshirt freshman Alex Murphy, he may not have seen much more next year. Gbinije’s lack of playing time puzzled many Duke fans because his length and athleticism were exactly what Duke’s perimeter defense needed. Fans concerns are probably overreactions: Mike Krzyzewski doesn’t have a history of sticking with experienced guys over more talented freshmen.

Rivers’ departure is harder to evaluate. On paper, it’s terrible. Rivers was the only playmaker on last year’s team. Without consistent play at point guard, Coach K relied on the freshman to create his own shot a lot of the time. However, Rivers’ season had its detractors. While the heat he took for being selfish was over the top, comments Seth Curry made earlier this summer to Shawn Krest certainly point to a lack of chemistry on last year’s team.

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Over the next four weeks we’ll be taking a step back and looking at each team in the ACC to assess where each program — and the conference as a whole — stands before we totally turn our attention to the 2013-14 season later this fall. Today’s target: Georgia Tech.

Where They Stand Now

Georgia Tech Head Coach Brian Gregory Has His Work Cut Out In Atlanta

Last season was a season of transition for Georgia Tech. After the firing of longtime coach Paul Hewitt, Brian Gregory took over a program that had spent the last few years slowly slumping to the bottom of the ACC. As the Yellow Jackets prepared a new home court, his team was left without a true home, forced to make use of Phillips Arena along with a few other venues. A new coach, no home court,  and a legitimate talent deficit made it no surprise that Georgia Tech faltered. In a season when their best moments come in December and January, Georgia Tech didn’t have a lot to celebrate as conference play went on. Still, the future seems promising for Georgia Tech: McCammish Pavillion is finally set to open and Gregory will better know what to expect from his team in the second year.

Who’s Leaving?

The nice part about having a young team is that you don’t have to worry about losing a lot of players to graduation. The Yellow Jackets will lose Pierre Jordan and Nick Foreman, a pair of back-up guards who each averaged about 10 minutes a game in the past season, but that’s the only toll from graduation. Sophomore big man Nate Hicks has transferred to Florida Gulf Coast University. Hicks didn’t get a lot of playing time in Atlanta, averaging a paltry 7.7 minutes per game. The biggest departure is the dismissal of Glen Rice, Jr., from the team. The troubled swingman was benched at the end of his freshman season by Paul Hewitt and served a pair of suspensions last season under Gregory. He was finally dismissed from the team after a run-in with the law that featured Rice driving under the influence while one of his passengers discharged a gun.  Rice was the leading scorer and rebounder for Georgia Tech, but his off-the-court troubles certainly seem serious enough to make his departure seem like the best option for Rice and the team.

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As we mentioned in Monday’s Morning Five, the biggest name on the transfer market has made his decision. Former Mississippi State guard/forward Rodney Hood is headed to Duke, where he will sit out next season before gaining eligibility in 2013-14. Hood narrowed his options to Duke and Ohio State last week but chose the Blue Devils to become just the fourth major transfer accepted into the program during Mike Krzyzewski’s tenure – joining Roshown McLeod, Dahntay Jones, and current rising senior Seth Curry. With Duke having just suffered a painful upset in the NCAA Tournament to #15 seed Lehigh as well as losing two first round picks to the NBA, the Blue Devils are in need of a new talent infusion into the program. After four-star signee Amile Jefferson chose Duke in May and Hood has also chosen the Devils, Coach K’s team suddenly has a much brighter future. But why did Hood choose Duke? “[Coach K] told me what he saw for my future. He was specific and to the point,” said Hood on his decision. “He said he can make me a better basketball player and one of the best in the country.” Alongside a bevy of other talented wing players, Hood would become the most experienced of the bunch in 2013 and help lead a star-studded roster.

Rodney Hood is bringing his smooth game to Duke (HailState.com photo)

Hood will be a redshirt sophomore when he joins Duke the year after next with a year of SEC experience as well as a full season of practice time with the Blue Devils.  A top 30 recruit when he arrived in Starkville, Hood had a solid year for the Bulldogs, averaging 10.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game for a team that experienced a rollercoaster season and missed the NCAA Tournament. He was a steady contributor who played the fifth-most minutes in the SEC (32.8 MPG), compiled a 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranked fourth in the league, and showed an ability to hit the three-point shot (36.4% on 129 attempts). His all-around game as a smooth, 6’8″ wing player should translate well in the future for a Duke team that severely lacked athleticism on the wing last season.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Amile Jefferson, Top Unsigned Prospect Left, Commits To Duke

Amile Jefferson Committed To Duke over Kentucky, Ohio State, N.C. State And Villanova. (ESPN)

Blue Devils Add A Second McDonald’s All-American. It has been a long time coming, but Class of 2012 power forward Amile Jefferson finally committed Tuesday when he chose Duke over Kentucky, Ohio State, NC State and Villanova. The Philadelphia native joins fellow McDonald’s All-American shooting guard Rasheed Sulaimon as the only two commits for Blue Devil head coach Mike Krzyzewski in the Class of 2012. The 6’9″, 197-pound big man has had a long, drawn-out recruitment and has had more timetables than Class of 2012 power forward Tony Parker had speakers at his hour-long commitment ceremony when he chose UCLA. However, you can’t completely blame the two-time Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year since Duke chased after him throughout his sophomore year then cooled down to recruit other big men and then decided on turning their attention back to Jefferson after missing out on higher-ranked targets during the early signing period. Now that he’s finally a Blue Devil, Jefferson is a huge get for two reasons. Not only is he a quality player who can give Duke solid minutes next year and then become a major contributor after that, but he was the best option to try to fill their need of a big man. Jefferson is a versatile forward who has a great combination of athleticism, length and quickness but he can also rebound well. He will definitely have to add strength once he gets to Durham but he’s a very good pick-up for Coach K this late in the process.

What They’re Saying

• Senior star Anthony Bennett on choosing UNLV: “I felt a great relationship with the coaches. I went to a lot of games at UNLV and it felt like a second home. The fans at UNLV came to a lot of my games. They’re very passionate about their Rebels and they’ve been very supportive to me.” Read the rest of this entry »

1. Our long national nightmare may be nearing an end. No, the unemployment numbers still are bad (even with the fudging), but we may have seen the end of those atrocious and dangerous tournament sponsor stickers. After several near-misses and plenty of angry comments from players and coaches the NCAA has given a recommendation to the Playing Rules Oversight Committee that it should use a consistent surface (read: no stickers) for the sake of player safety. Coaches have offered several solutions including even wearing stickers of sponsors themselves to the point where they would look like a NASCAR vehicle, but frankly that’s just tacky. If you are a company and want exposure to a wide audience that is well-read, incredibly intelligent, and wealthy with plenty of disposable income you should e-mail us to advertise on our site.
2. Surprisingly that was not the only interest announcement from the NCAA yesterday as it also had a couple other topics it chose to highlight in its press release. Outside of the sponsor decals (addressed above) the most interesting proposal is one that could result in more technical fouls being called on head coaches and the bench for unsportsmanlike behavior. We are kind of surprised that they even had to mention comments related to “race, ethnicity, religion, gender or sexual orientation directed at or referring to any game official or opposing player/bench personnel” as something that requires a technical since it already usually results in a media firestorm, but they are also calling for technical fouls to when the coach/bench questions calls excessively. Obviously how the officials interpret this rule could be very interesting as there are some very prominent coaches (like a guy with a “K” in his name) who tend to do this very frequently and could approach Dennis Rodman territory for technical fouls if the officials enforce this strictly.
3. The pickings for top-flight recruits is getting slim as most of the college basketball media was focused in on the announcement of Amile Jefferson, a highly rated power forward out of Philadelphia, that he would attend Duke passing on North Carolina State, Kentucky, and a couple of other schools. Although Jefferson is not expected to have a major impact right away his matriculation to Durham will boost a Blue Devil front line that was already respectable and even though his contribution might be marginal it could be enough to get the team another ACC title especially with how down the ACC is expected to be. Still Jefferson’s potential impact is more likely to be in the long-term with the eventual departure of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly after the 2012-13 season.
4. It seems like we have been talking more about transfers in the past few weeks than we typically do at this time of year, but is that actually true or just our perception? Dan Hanner decided to take a look at the actual number of “transfers” this year compared to previous years. The answer that Hanner comes up with may surprise you and may in some ways be a reflection of the methodology used by others who claim individuals are transferring when in fact they just do not use up all of their available eligibility. Given how early it is in the transfer season it is possible that the total number of actual transfers will be significantly greater than it has in past years. The reality is probably something more like the transformation of media coverage of the sport has been greatly impacted by social media where individuals like yours truly can use that platform to espouse our views or get sucked into believing the views of others where a few major stories (like a player’s attempt to transfer being blocked) clouds our analysis of the big picture.
5. Wyoming forward Leonard Washington received a $530 fine, a 31-day suspended jail sentence. and one year of unsupervised probation after he pleaded guilty to charges of criminal entry and battery stemming from an incident on April 15. Washington, who was suspended indefinitely from the team on April 4 for unspecified reasons, admitted to entering a house without permission and punching an individual leading to his arrest. With this event occurring soon after he had been suspended indefinitely from the team we would be surprised if Washington were allowed to rejoin the Wyoming team even if he was their best player last season averaging 12.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks on his way to Second Team All-Mountain West honors. Washington, who transferred to Wyoming from USC, will probably end up at another school, but with just one year of eligibility this is probably the last we have heard of Washington on a (relatively) big stage.

Our apologies for plagiarizing borrowing the ideas of our colleagues over at the Pac-12 microsite, but we liked their post-mortem team breakdowns so much that we decided to replicate them with our conference. So over the course of the next two weeks, we will break down each team’s season, starting from the bottom of the conference standings. Next up is Villanova.

What Went Wrong

Despite the fact that two teams technically finished behind the Wildcats in the conference standings, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Villanova was the Big East’s biggest disappointment this season (apologies to Pittsburgh, you will get your turn at the table of criticism later). Although they played a number of good teams close, the Wildcats routinely blew early leads, turned the ball over with regularity, didn’t shoot well from downtown, and didn’t force many turnovers either. Of course it didn’t help that key players Maalik Wayns, James Bell, and JayVaughn Pinkston all missed time due to injuries, but the team was struggling so badly on both ends of the floor that it might not have mattered either way. The team’s key trio of Wayns, Cheek, and center Mouphtaou Yarou all improved their numbers, but none of them took the step forward that would have kept Villanova in tournament contention. Also, the freshman class was so inconsistent we are surprised Jay Wright had any hair left by the end of the season.

Jay Wright Did Plenty Of Teaching During A Trying Season (AP Photo)

What Went Right

The number one bright spot for folks on the Main Line was the emergence of Pinkston in conference play. His production tapered off in the final few games of the season, but he scored double-digit points in 12 conference games and hauled in double-digit rebounds in five conference games. He is candidate no. 1 to fill the scoring void next season left behind by some of the early defectors, and he will be a consistent double-double threat assuming he stays healthy. Although they struggled mightily at times, freshmen Tyrone Johnson, Darrun Hilliard and Markus Kennedy all got valuable experience that will serve them well in their increased roles next season. Wildcats’ fans can also take solace in the fact that six of the team’s conference losses were by four points or less, something that should change once the young team learns how to win close games.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Tony Parker Joins Adams, Anderson and Muhammad at UCLA

Parker Choose UCLA Over Duke, Georgia And Ohio State. (Photo: Atlanta Journal Constitution)

Tony Parker Gives UCLA Top Recruiting Class.  Class of 2012 power forward Tony Parker committed to UCLA Monday over Duke, Georgia and Ohio State, joining point guard Kyle Anderson and small forwards Jordan Adams and Shabazz Muhammad in head coach Ben Howland’s stellar 2012 recruiting class. Parker brings a tremendous inside presence to Westwood and is someone who will be able to rebound as soon as he steps onto campus. He is an elite big man with a great skill set in the low post and has the ability to score through a variety of moves in the paint. He can make a hook over both shoulders and is able to play facing the basket, although he’s at his best with his back to the basket. The biggest knock on Parker has always been the same — that he’s out of shape and lacks stamina. However, the Georgia native has worked hard to dispel that notion and although he can still improve his conditioning, he’s definitely gotten better at running the court and has an improved motor. Once Parker gets to UCLA, he’ll join a crowded frontcourt that already includes sophomore power forwards David and Travis Wear and sophomore center Josh Smith. Every single person in the UCLA’s 2012 recruiting class worked hard on recruiting Parker and Adams even predicted back in December that the Bruins would land him. UCLA fans should remain cautiously optimistic, though, because as we’ve pointed out at RTC, having a highly ranked recruiting class doesn’t necessarily guarantee success, borne out by UCLA’s 2008 recruiting class. Although, there are some differences between this year’s recruiting class and the one four years ago.

What They’re Saying

• Senior Marshall Wood on asking for a release from Virginia Tech: “I need to get my release so I can review all my options. If somebody gets the job at Tech that recruited me or something and I have a really good relationship with [him], I possibly could still go back. But right now I just want to get the release so I can have more options to look at.” Read the rest of this entry »

Spring signing day takes place Wednesday and several of the nation’s top prospects have withheld making a decision until the spring. The SEC, notably Kentucky, looks to add some of these blue-chippers. Here now are six of those top-level prospects and the SEC schools pursuing their talents.

Nerlens Noel – 6-10, C, Tilton, N.H. (No. 2 Rivals.com/No.1 Scout.com/No. 1 ESPN.com) – Noel was added to the 2012 class in early February setting off a mad recruiting scramble for this coveted big man. His list is rumored to be down to Syracuse, Georgetown, and Kentucky. All three boast great traditions of shot-blocking big men, but Kentucky certainly featured to most recent with Anthony Davis. When ESPN calls him “An absolutely incredible shot blocker with uncanny defensive instincts” it is not hard to imagine Calipari envisioning a Davis 2.0.

Shabazz Muhammad – 6-6, SG/SF, Las Vegas, Nev. (No.1 Rivals.com/No. 2 Scout.com/No. 2 ESPN.com) – Kentucky appears locked in a tight three-way battle with fellow blue-bloods Duke and UCLA for the left-handed scorer. Reports had him committing to UCLA last week, but nothing official came from the mouth of Muhammad. Like Noel, he make his announcement on Wednesday on television.

Where Will Shabazz End Up Going?

Anthony Bennett – 6-8, PF, Henderson, Nev. (No. 7 Rivals.com/No. 7 Scout.com/No. 7 ESPN.com) – Both Kentucky and Florida are in the power forward who is not likely to commit on Wednesday and could possibly delay his decision until May. He said in article earlier this week that “Yeah, it is tough (making a decision). That’s why I haven’t made my decision yet, but hopefully after I take all my visits it won’t be so hard.” In addition to the Gators and Wildcats, he has Oregon, Washington, and UNLV on his final list.

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Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.

It’s never too early to start talking about next season. Wednesday night showcased the very best high school basketball players in this year’s senior crop as part of the McDonald’s All-America game. There’s not a whole lot of analysis to do from Wednesday’s glorified exhibition game, but we can start to project how these elite talents are going to fit in next season. All 24 All-Americans are headed to a power conference school, so let’s break down how each conference could be impacted by all of these newcomers.

ACC

There are still five players who have yet to decide their destination next year, but as of now there are more McDonald’s All-Americans (MAA’s) headed to North Carolina State than there are committed to North Carolina and Duke combined. The Wolfpack hauls in an impressive trio that includes point guard Tyler Lewis, shooting guard Rodney Purvis, and small forward T.J. Warren. Purvis is probably the biggest name of the class and showcased quite a bit of explosiveness on Wednesday. NC State is loaded with talent already and brings back its top four players next season (assuming C.J. Leslie doesn’t hit the NBA), so Mark Gottfried’s team is going to be scary. Purvis and Warren are big-time wing athletes while Lewis will be a viable backup point guard to Lorenzo Brown. There’s a strong chance that NC State will be the favorite in the ACC next season.

North Carolina Needs Marcus Paige to Contribute Immediately Next Season (SourceMedia Group/L. Martin)

Marcus Paige is headed to North Carolina, which is suddenly in desperate need of talent after its four best players are now off to the NBA. Depending on who you ask, Paige is either the best or second-best rated point guard in this class, and he will have a great opportunity to contribute immediately for the Tar Heels to step in for Kendall Marshall. Rasheed Sulaimon is going to Duke, and he was one of the most impressive players in the MAA game. A solid 6’4” shooting guard, Sulaimon is a hard worker with a terrific outside shot and should fit in perfectly for the Blue Devils. He seems like a classic Mike Krzyzewski recruit.

Big East

Surprisingly, Providence has the top recruiting class in the conference this year, led by a pair of five-star guards. Kris Dunn is ranked as a top-three point guard in this class and played in Wednesday’s game with some impressive passing skills. He’s not a great shooter but he has good size (6’3”) and skills for a lead guard. Ricardo Ledo was not chosen for the MAA game, but he is a top-five shooting guard in this class as well. Ed Cooley did extremely well in the recruiting ranks this year for a young team that is losing nobody next year. The Friars should have the best backcourt in the Big East.

DaJuan Coleman is a big body headed for Syracuse, which also suddenly is in a huge need for a center after Fab Melo’s deaparture. Coleman is a strong big man and ranked as one of the top centers in a loaded class at that position. He will step in alongside Rakeem Christmas as an impressive young duo in the paint. The Orange are off to the ACC, though, in a couple years. Shaq Goodwin, meanwhile, is headed for Memphis, a Conference USA school, but the Tigers will join the Big East starting with the 2013-14 seson. Goodwin is an athletic power forward at 6’8”.

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