So, let’s play a game. I tell you that I’m going to flip a coin (let’s say a 2009 U.S. quarter) exactly thirty times. Your job is to guess how many times that the coin is going to come up “heads.” Very cleverly, you notice that that typically a coin comes up heads about 50% of the time, so you should guess that, in this game, you will get heads about fifteen times. Okay, so I flip the coin the first five times and, surprise of surprises, I end up getting heads four out of five times. Does this mean you were wrong? Does this mean that the coin will continue to turn up heads at a 80% clip? Of course not. It’s just that variance is “magnified“ in small sample sizes. If we flip the coin the full thirty times, it’s almost certainly going to turn up heads less than 80% of the time.

Obviously, we are here not here to talk about flipping coins, but rather college basketball. So, what’s the relevance? The relevance is that right now, we are about a third of the way through the college basketball season and people are pointing to extraordinary statistics and acting as if they are going to hold up through March and April. The coin won’t turn up heads 80% over a big enough sample size, and Pittsburgh won’t continue to grab 47.9% of offensive rebounds against its opponents. Some of the extraordinary stats in college basketball are simply due to small sample size. Some teams tasting truly rarefied air in December are destined to fall back to Earth come March. Who’s due for a decline?

Glad you asked. What I’ve done is checked up on who was the leader on the offensive and defensive ends of the court in regards to each of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors at the end of the 2009-10 season. Then, I checked Ken Pomeroy’s rankings to see which teams were currently performing better than the very best team from last year. The logic is simple (and admittedly a little simplistic): It’s unlikely that many teams this season are going to perform too much better than what the best team in a given category did the year before. Unsurprisingly, at this point early in the season, there are quite a few teams performing better than any team performed last year. Let’s break it down category by category and figure out which teams are cruising for a bruising. Or a decline in efficiency. One or the other.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

None of these teams are shooting that much better than 2009-10 Denver (57.9%), but still, betting on Kansas or Georgetown’s shooting to cool off isn’t a bad bet. It’s a little early to predict Duke’s shooting to decline, but if Kyrie Irving’s absence isn’t explanatory enough for you, here’s another reason.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25 Games

• Oakland 89, #4 Tennessee 82: Differing takes from the winning side (Oakland Grizzlies Gameplan) and the losing side (Rocky Top Talk).
• Drexel 52, #20 Louisville 46: “I’m not sure whether to make a joke or voice how pissed I truly am. I’m not sure whether this will serve as a wake-up call or a catalyst to the disappointing season we feared and so many predicted. I’m not sure if the first eight games of the season were completely misleading or if the team that showed up out of nowhere this evening will be banished for good by the time Big East play rolls around.” (Card Chronicle)

Other Games of Interest

• Michigan 64, North Carolina Central 44: “Michigan continues to push the limit of just how ugly a 20 point win can be. The Wolverines haven’t played many complete games this year and tonight was no different as Michigan crawled their way to just 23 first half points against North Carolina Central’s 2-3 zone. While the Wolverines looked hapless and befuddled versus the zone in the first half, the Eagles made the inexplicable choice to go away from the zone in the second half.” (UM Hoops

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1. Quiz time: of conferences which are eligible for consideration in the CollegeInsider.com mid-major rankings, which league has racked up the most wins against teams from the big six? Time’s up — it’s the Atlantic Sun. We dig it when a small conference takes an opportunity to strut a little bit, especially when they provide good evidence as to why you should take heed. Yes, that’s the A-Sun’s Belmont tucked in neatly at 66th in the latest KenPoms, and that is indeed the A-Sun listed in the top half of all conferences at CollegeRPI.com (14th). Another good thing about the linked article is that it reminded us about the names of the two divisions in the Cancun Challenge: Riviera and Mayan (won by the A-Sun’s North Florida). Come on. At least it skunks Leaders and Legends.
2. We can’t say for sure, but hopefully the folks at Siena take it as a compliment that we’ve come to expect so much from them every year, especially come tournament time. It’s in that spirit that we ask…what happened, here? We all knew it wouldn’t be easy replacing studs like Alex Franklin and Edwin Ubiles, not to mention departed coach Fran McCaffery. Sure, the Saints seem to have taken a serene, trance-like approach to playing defense at times this season, but nobody handicapped a 3-6 start. Mark Singelais of the Albany Times Union details how Siena has decided to put the first month of the season behind them, and proclaim Tuesday’s win over Florida Atlantic as the new beginning to their 2010-11 campaign.
3. There’s now a Wolf among the Huskies. Connecticut has announced the mid-season addition of Enosch Wolf, a 7’1 center from Germany, to the squad. He’s enrolled and ready to go, eligible to practice on Sunday and play his first game on Monday. Coppin State — the Huskies’ foe on that night, whose tallest player playing at least 20 MPG stands at 6’8 — is not amused. Wilkommen in Connecticut!
4. If Syracuse’s Rick Jackson looks different to you this season…good eye. Here’s a nice piece from Fanhouse about how Jackson’s lopping off of about 10% of his body mass during the off-season has led to increased expectations for Jackson from his coaching staff and teammates. You can sense the pride that fellow Orange(-man) Kris Joseph and guru Jim Boeheim feel toward Jackson in the way they talk about him in the article. More noteworthy is that you get the same sense of increased confidence from how Jackson talks about himself, his increased responsibility, and his improved skills. Averaging a robust 14.0 PPG and 12.5 RPG doesn’t hurt the ol’ confidence, either. But it’s all cyclical…
5. We’re among those who really want New York to become a college hoops town again, and New York magazine’s Will Leitch — yes, that guy — has provided a tidy summary of how the NYC schools are doing so far. It’s shocking to see the depths to which Manhattan has plunged, and to note that, even though the Johnnies are limping right now, there’s still a Secretariat-like gap between St. John’s and the next-best NYC team (Long Island). So, even though the Steve Lavin rebuild of SJU is still in its infancy (or possibly still a fetus), all hopes of turning NYC back into the college basketball town that it should be still rest with them. We really want this to happen, no matter which school leads the way, but if it’s the Johnnies, that’s fine with us. Plus, that means we’ll probably all have more Erin Sharoni in our lives (SJU sideline reporter — it’s only a matter of time for her), and that’s just good for everyone.

The Lede.  Is there such a thing as an RTC Jinx?  Some might think so after a couple of our recent feature articles.  On Monday, we wrote a piece discussing how a couple of coaches who endured fairly miserable offseasons have turned water to wine with their teams so far this year — Louisville’s Rick Pitino and Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl.  On Tuesday, Zach Hayes split the difference with his Contenders & Pretenders article, putting the Vols as a top contender while categorizing the Cards as a pretender.   Of course, the thematic logic behind these articles still hold — Pearl and Pitino are having good seasons and UT is still a contender — but with both teams suffering pronounced home upsets against true mid-majors tonight, we’re starting to wonder if the RTC jinx is in effect.

Tough Night in Knoxville (GoVolsXtra)

Your Watercooler Moment.  The Burden of Expectations Doesn’t Suit Bruce Pearl.  There’s no doubt that Bruce Pearl is a phenomenal coach.  The fact that he’s made Tennessee basketball (on the men’s side) relevant in the sport is all anyone really needs to say.  He’s won 133 games in six years, put up a banner for an SEC regular season championship, gotten the Vols to an Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament, and repeatedly knocked off elite teams in regular season matchups.  But he’s at his best when little is expected of him and his team.  During his first year in Knoxville, with UT coming off a 14-17 season the year before, the Vols throttled #2 Texas in an early-season matchup in Knoxville.  A couple of years later, his team went into #1 Memphis’ house and knocked the cocky Tigers off their perch.  Just last year, mere days after his team imploded as a result of the Tyler Smith guns/drugs fiasco, Tennessee knocked off #1 Kansas.  On Saturday, as we all still have fresh in our minds, the Vols blew up #3 Pittsburgh in their own backyard.  When Pearl can convince his team that they’re their backs are up against the wall, that nobody believes in them, that they’re the plucky little underdogs from down south… he’s fantastic.  When instead his team is suddenly thrust in the role of The Hunted, as the Vols are every time they defeat one of the above list of teams, they fall, and they fall hard.  Whether Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, a bad Kentucky team or Oakland, Tennessee just isn’t comfortable playing the part of alpha dog.  And until they shed that mentality, they’ll never become a serious contender for the national championship.

Upset of the Night #1.  Oakland 89, Tennessee 82.  Obviously, any time a top ten team loses to a mid-major, even one with an NBA draft pick such as Keith Benson on its roster, it’s a major upset.  This had all the makings of a trap game, with Tennessee coming off its huge upset victory over Pittsburgh last weekend, and the Golden Grizzlies entering Knoxville as a two-time NCAA participant having already played the likes of Michigan State, West Virginia, Purdue and Illinois.  They hadn’t actually beaten any of those teams,  although Greg Kampe’s team came painfully close over the weekend against MSU.  Oakland wasn’t fazed when they found themselves down eleven at halftime tonight, nor did they get rattled when Benson cooled off after a 20-point first half (he finished with 26/10).  Instead, they actually got better, using the quickness of Ledrick Eackles and Larry Wright to break down the UT defense and get easy looks for everyone else.  A 13-0 Oakland run in the late second half put the GGs ahead for good, as a shocked Tennessee crowd endured both the men’s and women’s teams losing on the same dark, cold evening.  There are several reasons for this upset win on both sides, but if you wanted to point fingers at something other than the dreaded Letdown, try looking directly at Scotty Hopson.  The UT star who was transcendent on Saturday must have been reading about himself in the interim, because he played more like the same old inconsistent player of old (1-7 for seven points) than this year’s new, improved version.  The other issue tonight was Tennessee’s defense — the swarming spaghetti monster of arms and legs that we saw over the weekend looked frozen in place tonight, and Oakland exploited the Vol statues, hitting for 54%, the season high against the UT defense by far.  As UT’s Melvin Goins said after the game, “the hunger wasn’t there as much [as against Pitt].”  And therein lies the difference between a very good and a great team — the great ones stay hungry, even against schools named Oakland.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

A pair of games on the “U” highlight tonight’s schedule, the best of this slow week. Can the two home favorites avoid a letdown after big wins this past Saturday?  All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

Oakland @ #4 Tennessee – 7 pm on ESPNU (***)

UT Needs to Avoid the Letdown Bug Tonight

After their huge win over Pittsburgh on Saturday behind Scotty Hopson’s career-high 27 points (10-13 FG), the Volunteers return home to face a 5-5 Oakland team out of the Summit League. Sounds easy, right? Not true, Oakland is not your ordinary .500 team. The Golden Grizzlies are in the midst of a brutal non-conference schedule, one that has already included games against West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State and still has Michigan and Ohio State to come after tonight’s game. Oakland nearly upset Michigan State on Saturday, falling by just a single point. Tennessee will look to use its speed and athleticism against Oakland as Bruce Pearl features a lineup of versatile guards and forwards. By contrast, Oakland features a solid front line of Keith Benson and Will Hudson. The 6’11 Benson averages 18/12 plus three blocks a game, a dominant force in the paint. Tennessee needs a strong effort out of Brian Williams in order to defend him. Stopping Hudson will also be key to a Tennessee win as he shoots 66% from the floor. Pearl may even look to a zone in order to defend the Oakland bigs or just use a double team on Benson. Tennessee, which shot 7-11 from three against Pitt, has the potential to outshoot Oakland from deep as the Golden Grizzlies rank just #281 in defending the trey. Reggie Hamilton (16 PPG, 4 APG, 39% 3pt FG) has to be on his game along with Benson and Hudson for Oakland to have a chance to win. Oakland doesn’t shoot it well from deep but Hamilton is their biggest threat, though he’s just five for his last 19 (26%). With Hopson and Tobias Harris, Tennessee has two extraordinary weapons at 6’7 and 6’8 that Oakland can’t quite match. Greg Kampe’s team is going to have to get the job done in the paint with his front court duo and that’s where rebounding comes in. Both teams are excellent rebounding units, especially on the offensive end. Each ranks in the top 15 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage though Oakland could only muster 30 total rebounds against Michigan State. Winning the rebounding battle is critical to any success Oakland hopes to have in this game. Turnover margin is the other key battle to keep an eye on. The Vols struggle handling the ball, averaging 17 turnovers a game including 20 against Pitt. Point guard Melvin Goins does a nice job but it’s really the other players that cause most of the turnover problems. They made up for that with 56% shooting against the Panthers but don’t expect that to happen again. Oakland turns it over 16 times per game so they’ll need to pay attention to this as well since they don’t force many turnovers at all. Tennessee gets to the foul line better than anyone else in D1 and Oakland’s starters play a lot of minutes. Combine those two statistics and you have a potential depth issue for the Golden Grizzlies. If players start fouling out, particularly Benson or Hudson, it’s going to be very difficult, almost impossible, to win. Expect an up-tempo game with Tennessee trying to avoid a letdown after Saturday’s terrific performance. If the Vols don’t take this game seriously, Oakland will hang around all night and have a chance to win. If Tennessee plays their game and doesn’t turn the ball over, expect the home team to come away with a nice win.

Drexel @ #20 Louisville – 9 pm on ESPNU (***)

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Now that we’re a solid month-plus into the season, we have a much better idea about which teams have the best chance to cut down the nets in Houston next April.  Whether measuring statistically through the Pomeroy ratings or the traditional way through our own two eyes, it doesn’t take much to know that, as an example, Connecticut is a lot better than everyone expected and North Carolina is a lot worse.  At least at this point in the season.  Luckily, Vegas has been keeping its watchful eye on the college basketball season as well, and the bookmakers have adjusted their futures lines accordingly.  Some of the results may surprise you.

We’ve presented the schools who have risen and fallen the most (greater than 1% since preseason) below, but if you’re interested in the entire list and our thoughts on these changes, click for it after the jump. 

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

As we approach finals week at most schools around the country, the top student-athletes will be taking a week away from the pressures of Division I basketball and instead focusing on textbooks, lecture notes and a handful of practices (or at least we can hope this is the case). As fans, this seems like an appropriate time to step back and evaluate the teams that have had successful debut months in this 2010-11 campaign and determine whether they’ll still be lurking atop the rankings a month from today. I’ll call this feature Contender or Pretender and point out five teams that will be in the hunt for the long haul and five squads playing over their heads in mid-December:

Tennessee's performance this season has brought a smile to Pearl's face

Contenders

Tennessee- If the Volunteers played in the Big East, whom some are now anointing the top conference in the land with seven teams in the top 25 and five in the top 13, they’d be the hands down favorites after toppling both Villanova in New York City and then throttling previously undefeated Pittsburgh just miles from their campus in the Steel City. Will the Volunteers still be lingering in the top ten when their head coach goes on an eight-game sabbatical in January? Due to their commitment on the defensive end, the emergence of a star freshman in Tobias Harris and a former McDonalds All-American that’s finally harnessed his talent on a consistent basis in Scotty Hopson, it’s a growing possibility. Tennessee has many traits of not only a winning team, but one that’s not a fluke. The Volunteers top ten defensive efficiency stands out, as does their #13 rank in offensive rebounding percentage anchored by post presence Brian Williams. Bruce Pearl’s club also leads the nation in free throw rate with three players in the top 100- Hopson, Harris and underrated junior Cameron Tatum- in free throws drawn per 40 minutes. When jump shots are not falling, quality teams rebound their misses and win at the free throw line. Tennessee is doing both. Shooting hasn’t been an issue for Hopson, the former McDonald’s All-American and early leader in the SEC Player of the Year race. His 27 points on an ultra-efficient 10-13 FG was impressive enough, but it’s Hopson’s consistency (double digit scoring in all of the Vols first seven games) that has pushed Tennessee to unforeseen heights.

San Diego State- Tennessee’s first round opponent in last season’s NCAA Tournament has climbed, in just one short year, from a relative unknown to a dangerous sleeper to MWC Tournament champion to one of the top ten teams in the nation. The Aztecs are not a mid-major just taking advantage of a weak schedule and BCS opponents simultaneously falling to elite competition. They are not a flash in the pan that will fade out of the top 25 when conference play heats up. San Diego State resembles a high major in every single way, from athleticism to balance to coaching to swagger. Their tenth ranked offensive efficiency behind the efforts of a Kawhi Leonard-Billy White-Malcolm Thomas frontline show they can light up the scoreboard with the best. They take care of the basketball (16^th in turnover%), block shots (fourth in block%), defend (26^th in efficiency) and feature forwards that crash the glass with ferocity. They’ve also improved two glaring weaknesses of last season- three-point shooting and free throw shooting. D.J. Gay and James Rahon’s effort from the outside have propelled the Aztecs from 265^th in the country in three-point percentage to 96^th and their free throw shooting has gone from abysmal to mediocre. Most impressive may be the Aztecs six victories on true road or neutral floors thus far this season, including triumphs at Gonzaga, at California and home against St. Mary’s and Wichita State.

Minnesota- As the only RTC voter to rank Minnesota before the season, I’ll take some minor credit for jumping on the Gophers bandwagon prior to my esteemed colleagues. The Gophers did slip up at home against Virginia, but I’m going to grant them a reprieve because they were missing the key to their team- senior point guard Al Nolen. A defensive-minded distributor and an imperative cog to their offensive flow and rhythm, Tubby Smith needs Nolen back for Big Ten competition in the worst way. One reason the Gophers have overachieved and the main reason I see their ascension lasting is the emergence of Trevor Mbakwe as an athletic post threat. Mbakwe has been outstanding in the early going, ranking in the top-100 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, just outside the top 100 in efficient FG% and in the top-15 in both free throw rate and fouls drawn per 40 minutes. (although he could stand to make some more of those attempts). While Ralph Sampson is more of a plodding forward and Colton Iverson is best utilized when he doesn’t have to score consistently, Mbakwe is the most explosive and capable of 20/15 of the pack. The Gophers frontline is tall, deep and can score, evident by the team’s top-20 ranking in two-point FG%. With Blake Hoffarber’s continued efficiency, a potential first round pick in Rodney Williams and the eventual return of their heady point guard (yet another example of how the position is the most important in college basketball), the Gophers are top-20 material until the very end.

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1. You know it’s coming every week, and yet you still get excited when you see the words:  Seth Davis‘ Hoop Thoughts.  In this week’s edition, Davis breaks down 26 of the nation’s teams from the perspective of whether they can make foul shots, and he comes up with some interesting conclusions by looking at contenders through that prism.  He also has some insider information on page two of his piece about Kyrie Irving’s toe injury that you’re going to want to read, especially if you’re a Duke fan interested in reading tea leaves.
2. Clemson guard Demontez Stitt had arthroscopic surgery on Monday to clean out his left knee and will miss several weeks as he rehabilitates it.  The senior guard is having a productive season, hitting for 14/3 in nearly 31 minutes per game for the Tigers.  The schedule lightens up for his 5-4 squad during the time he is projected to be out of the lineup, with only a troublesome game at College of Charleston as a potential pitfall.  Brad Brownell hopes to have him back in action for their second ACC game against Miami (FL) on January 8.
3. It’s no secret that Xavier’s 6-2 start to the 2010-11 season represents a little bit of fool’s gold because the Musketeers have already escaped with two overtime wins over IUPUI and Wofford (3OT) and dropped early contests to ODU and Miami (Ohio).  Paul Daugherty writes that XU’s struggles in the pre-conference season are a result of identity searching for a team who lost some very good players in the form of Jordan Crawford and Jason Love.  Still, who among us is willing to bet against the Musketeers figuring out their strengths and causing major problems for the A-10 and the rest of the country by March?
4. It’s not often that you hear of a school offering to forfeit games that they’ve already won, but Arkansas State is proposing that very thing to the NCAA in its summary disposition report to the NCAA Infractions Committee.  As a result of inadvertently using several ineligible players who were not making satisfactory progress toward their degrees a few years ago, the Red Wolves program is offering to cut a basketball scholarship for the upcoming two years and give back 27 wins that they earned in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons.  Could you imagine Kentucky or Connecticut doing something like that?
5. There’s very little else going now, so presumably we’re going to talk about the long-awaited debut of point guard Josh Selby for Kansas all week.  Mike DeCourcy notes that Bill Self said in his teleconference on Monday that Selby is unlikely to start in KU’s weekend game versus USC, and that he will probably play off the ball for most of his first game as a Jayhawk.  Even though much has been written in the weeks leading up to his debut about his Rivals #1 ranking, it’s peculiar that two other scouting services rated Selby as low as #12 in the Class of 2010 rankings.  We’re sure he’s going to be a great Jayhawk in time, but maybe we also shouldn’t get too caught up in the hype machine this week until, you know, we’ve actually seen the kid play.

Relatively quiet day for college basketball action, but that should be picking up in the next few days. If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Other Games of Interest

• Seton Hall 78, Longwood 51: “Coming off an impressive win at UMass on Saturday, Seton Hall made it two straight with a 78-51 win over Longwood at the Prudential Center.” (Villanova by the Numbers)

Pre-Game Analysis

• Game Preview: Oakland at Tennessee: After giving two highly rated Big Ten teams all that they could handle the Golden Grizzlies turn their focus to what may be the hottest program in the country. (Golden Grizzlies Gameplan)

News/Analysis

• Kentucky Basketball: Comparing UK To Some Upcoming Foes: Looking at Kentucky’s performance so far this season compared to UF and Tennessee. (A Sea of Blue)
• Big East Basketball Power Rankings Week Five: Syracuse jumps quite a bit while the voters still aren’t buying Louisville yet. (The UConn Blog)
• Big Ten Power Rankings: December 13th, 2010: The voters in the Big Ten do not agree with the national rankings leading to some very surprising results. (UM Hoops)
• Today in things that don’t make sense: UConn is ranked 4th in the country: “Yes, I understand that these polls are built, in large part, on who has yet to lose, so I can intellectually understand why UConn is No. 4. Still, really? I mean, I can already hear the “overrated” chants coming from the Pitt fans in two weeks. This is a good team, maybe even a very good team, but until someone besides Kemba (and occasionally Oriakhi) proves themselves to be a regular force we can rely on, I can’t say they’re one of the best four teams in the nation.” (The UConn Blog)
• Recruiting Roundup: December 13th, 2010: Analyzing some of the top players that have either committed to play for Michigan or are targeted by the Wolverines. (UM Hoops)

It was a light day all the way around, with only a handful of check-ins to present…

• ACC.  With a solid road win over Maryland and topping a streaking Providence, BC takes the honors this week.  The Terrapins led late in the game but couldn’t score for the last two and a half minutes.  Maryland did not score a single point down the stretch.  None.  Still, Steve Donahue and his players deserve the credit.  They took advantage of Maryland’s lack of a leader when it counted.  The Eagles have a solid team that has the talent to finish second in the ACC.
• Big Ten.  Gone is the subtlety of the ‘eleven’ hidden inside of the ‘Ten’ and, instead, we’ve got a conference logo that won’t have to change until they reach 20 teams. Despite the expansion to 12 teams, the Ten stays in the name. “Leaders” and “Legends” refer to the new names for the divisions in the 12-team conference. This isn’t little league, but all the Leaders will sound like they’re in first. I can’t wait till I have to write a sentence like ‘Ohio State now leads the Leaders by a game over Illinois,’ or some such nonsense.
• Big 12.  The biggest story on Saturday has to be the debut of top ranked freshman Josh Selby in Lawrence when the Jayhawks take on the USC Trojans. The Jayhawks have been a pretty good team in the early going and all eyes will be on KU to see how the team dynamic changes with the addition of Selby.