Sullinger & His Buckeyes Perform Well in the Metrics

I obviously place a great deal of trust in respect in Ken Pomeroy’s statistical rankings that use Pythagorean expectation-based offensive and defensive efficiencies. Well, Ken has upped the ante by running a log5 analysis of the tournament field which breaks down the expectation of a given team to reach each round. Even more fun, Neil Paine at Basketball Reference ran Monte Carlo Simulation of the tournament 10,000 times using Pomeroy’s values and posted the very interesting results. Jeff Sagarin’s list uses scoring margin and a clever use of the Elo rating system (originally designed to rank chess players) to come up with his list of things to pick. Naturally, Nate Silver can’t resist weighing in with his method of making picks, which basically does for March Madness what Five Thirty Eight did for electoral math. His system, much like his polling methodology, is a weighted aggregation of different sources like Ken Pomeroy and Sagarin’s ranking plugged in with other factors that Silver thinks are important like geography, player ranking, and pre-season ranking. The sources he pulls from are exhaustive and smart while his methodology is well-reasoned. That said, it’s worth mentioning that a dumb “wisdom of the crowds” type list, such as ESPN’s national bracket (an average of all individual brackets) tends to outperform the majority of individual brackets.

Now, here’s the question: are you trying to predict the winner of games or are you trying to win a pool? These are not the same thing and it’s important to make the distinction. The national bracket, as I mentioned, usually gets a lot of the answers right. For the big questions, common sense is usually close enough. You want to know who has the best chance of winning the NCAA? Ohio State.  Pretty much every system, rankings, and analytics have Ohio State as the best team in the country. I happen to think this as well. I also think that the four number one seeds have the best chance of making it to the Final Four. Lots of folks agree with me and lots of analytics back it up.

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Love it or hate it, it’s here to stay so we may as well get used to it. The road from 68 pretenders to 16 contenders begins on Tuesday night at the First Four in Dayton, and we’ll be breaking down every game for you throughout. Here’s tonight’s two games, and keep in mind that we’ll have a correspondent with RTC Live at every single game in this year’s Big Dance.

#16 UNC-Asheville vs. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock – Southeast Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 6:30 pm ET on truTV.

Primm & UNCA Are Primed for Tonight

The NCAA Tournament tips off with the first round in Dayton tonight. Arkansas-Little Rock is making its third NCAA appearance, its first in 21 years since losing to UNLV in the first round of the 1990 Tournament, while UNC-Asheville is here for the second time in its history. These teams play a vastly different style of basketball and whoever can impose their will on the game will likely win. The Bulldogs of Asheville are much better defensively, ranked #89 in efficiency and first in the Big South Conference. They’ve won six straight games and no opponent has scored more than 63 points against them during this streak. Asheville likes to play at a quick pace and ranks tenth in defensive turnover percentage. They have to speed up this game and create a positive turnover margin in order to take Little Rock out of their comfort zone, a halfcourt setting. Turnovers have been a problem for Asheville (15 per game) with their two best players, guards Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm, accounting for six of those combined. With center D.J. Cunningham injured, Asheville has to depend on its backcourt almost exclusively. The Trojans shoot 39.7% from three (#12 nationally) but this guard-oriented team gets very little production inside. South Florida transfer Solomon Bozeman is by far their best player, averaging 16.5 PPG on 46.4% shooting from distance. If the shots aren’t falling, Little Rock will have a tough time winning this game. Guards control tempo and that will determine the outcome tonight.

The RTC Certified Pick: UNC-Asheville.

#12 Clemson vs. #12 UAB – East Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 9 pm ET on truTV.

Stitt Is Happy to be Dancing Again

The most stunning and controversial inclusion into this year’s field was UAB, whose conference tournament quarterfinal loss to East Carolina was believed to have sealed their NCAA fate. Instead, the Blazers’ stellar RPI boosted their credibility in the eyes of the committee enough to warrant a spot in the newly instituted at-large play-in games in Dayton. They’ll take on Clemson, a team whose late-season wins over Virginia Tech and Boston College aided their cause. The Tigers new head coach, Brad Brownell, always sported formidable defensive units during his time at Wright State; his debut season at Clemson has proved no different as the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Clemson has held opponents to a meager 44% from two-point territory and 32% from three-point range. The Tigers also boast a capable senior inside-outside duo in Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant, the latter ranking near the top of the nation in effective FG%, offensive rebounding and shot blocking. But the real matchup to watch involves Stitt against UAB point guard Aaron Johnson, a true floor general in every sense of the word. Johnson ranks fourth in the country in assist rate and the onus will be on Stitt to make life miserable in the halfcourt for Johnson. Both teams are below average when it comes to offensive efficiency when compared to other NCAA Tournament participants. Which point guard performs better between Stitt and Johnson could very well determine the outcome. We’re more trusting of Clemson’s talented supporting cast – Andre Young, Tanner Smith, Devin Booker and the aforementioned Grant to name a few – to make life easier for their point guard.

The RTC Certified Pick: Clemson.

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East:

• Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim discusses the Orange’s history in the Final Four with columnist Bud Poliquin.
• Indiana State is using creativity as the Sycamores practice for Syracuse on Friday.
• A possible distraction for Georgia: Mark Fox being mentioned as a candidate at NC State.
• Balance and consistency have been keys for Washington this season.
• Wright State head coach Billy Donlon is happy for his former boss, Clemson‘s Brad Brownell.
• Can Kentucky make a run to the Final Four?

 Southeast:

• Ashton Gibbs has been a very strong leader for Pittsburgh.
• St. John’s is using the injured DJ Kennedy as inspiration.
• Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan is a staunch advocate for further tournament expansion.
• Utah State head coach Stew Morrill believes his Aggies squad got another raw deal.
• BYU standout Jimmer Fredette needs some help around him if the Cougars want to advance deeply.

Southwest:

• Illinois guard DJ Richardson crossed paths with several UNLV players when he spent his final high school season at Findlay Prep in Las Vegas.
• Vanderbilt‘s opening round survival against Richmond could hinge on bench production.
• Kenneth Faried‘s tenacious rebounding style draws comparisons to Dennis Rodman, according to first-round opponent Rick Pitino.
• The matchup that almost was – Purdue coach Matt Painter is relieved that the scenario of facing St. John’s wouldn’t come up until the Final Four. Painter played at Purdue for current Scarlet Knight coaches Gene Keady and Steve Lavin.
• 15-seed Akron will hope to contain Notre Dame with some overbearing size down low.
• USC coach Kevin O’Neill learned a valuable lesson after his suspension from a verbal confrontation with an Arizona booster during the Pac-10 Tournament last week.

West:

• An update on college basketball’s most-watched toe indicates there’s a chance that Kyrie Irving will return for Duke at some point in the tournament.
• Hampton has a shot at one-upping its memorable upset of two-seed Iowa State in 2001.
• An emphasis on perimeter defense is the norm this week in Tennessee‘s practices as it preps for Michigan.
• A Q&A with Arizona‘s Derrick Williams discusses a variety of topics, including being recruited by his first-round opponent, Memphis.
• Sticking with the feline motif, Missouri will try to buck a foreboding trend against Cincinnati, as Big East teams have ended the Tigers’ last two seasons.
• Teammates will rally around Temple junior guard Ramone Moore, who has been instrumental in providing a leadership element to the Owls’ season.
• Kawhi Leonard may be an NBA prospect for the Aztecs, but DJ Gay is San Diego State‘s Iron Man, having played at least 39 minutes in his team’s last seven games, without the benefit of a single overtime.

Introduction

March Madness is officially here. Introduction over.

What We Learned

What a Run, Young Man.

Connecticut scoffs in the face of conventional wisdom that says it’s better for a team to be well rested before the NCAA tournament. The Huskies won five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament title last Saturday night. And for my money, Kemba Walker locked up the Naismith Award with his play over those five games. Walker averaged 26 PPG and 38 MPG at Madison Square Garden, carrying a team that finished 9-9 in the Big East to the #3 seed in the West. We are a little concerned that Walker went only 2-16 from three during the tournament, but he countered his poor outside shooting with at least nine attempts from the free throw line each game. For those who think Walker has to be running on fumes right now, remember that he had enough left to break some ankles, rise and knock down a J to beat Pittsburgh despite playing all 40 minutes of that game. Because of their 7:20 PM ET tip on Thursday, the Huskies will have had nearly five days off to ready themselves for the Tournament. That’s plenty of time for Kemba to recharge for another run.

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1. Every year the announcement of the NCAA Tournament field gets athletic directors across the country to puff their chests out and tell the secretary to be ready for the alumni/boosters to being calling in with their checkbooks open. And every year the following day another announcement (one detailing the academic performance of those teams) makes those same athletic directors slouch their shoulders and tell their secretary to tell the administration that they are in meetings all day and won’t be available to speak to them at this time. The latest report indicates that basketball players across the board are doing marginally better in terms of graduating, but the gap between Caucasian and African-American student-athlete graduation rates is widening. The relative graduation rates of different schools will undoubtedly become message board fodder, but the atrocious graduation rates at many schools (particularly for African-American players is appalling).
2. Over the past 36 hours there has been a lot of talk about teams being snubbed, but one team that has notably been left out of the discussion is Harvard. While there have been a few readers on our site who have been quite vocal in their support for the Crimson today they have largely gone unrecognized except for one national/local (ok, a hated local) writer who is beating the drum for Harvard as being worthy of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
3. We will be releasing our All-American teams in the near future, but to get a sneak peak of what our voting might look like check out the results of the United States Basketball Writers Association (USBWA) voting where we are a member. It is hard to argue with any of the selections, but is surprising and refreshing to see Kenneth Faried honored as a 2nd team All-American despite playing in a lower-profile conference.
4. With all the movement along the coaching carousel there are inevitably rumors about coaches at relatively big-name schools moving to even bigger name schools. One of the most prominent figures has been Tubby Smith who was rumored to be in the running for the recently open Arkansas position. However, it seems like Smith is not interested in becoming the Razorbacks head coach at least according to his statement from his local radio show yesterday as intends to return to Minnesota next season.
5. One of my favorite aspects of the NCAA Tournament is when non-college basketball fans try to show off their college basketball knowledge. (I’m really trying not to come off as a snob here. I would love to have more people be serious college basketball fans.) In recent years this has been altered slightly by people trying to break out sophisticated statistical analysis to find the key to unlocking a perfect bracket. We at RTC love statistical analysis so when The New York Times tried its hand at picking the bracket we were interested until we saw the result, which was essentially all chalk except for six “upsets” (three #9s beating #8s, two #10s beating #7s, one #11 beating a #6, and one #3 beating a #2).

East

• Xavier head coach Chris Mack believes the Musketeers have a tough game on Friday against Marquette.
• Despite the late-season collapse, Villanova head coach Jay Wright was not worried about his Wildcats grabbing an NCAA bid.
• The inclusion of UAB in the field of 68 was harshly criticized on ESPN.
• George Mason‘s at-large bid illuminates their growth as a program since its Cinderella run in 2006.
• As SEC tournament champions, John Calipari believes a #4 seed is too low for his Kentucky Wildcats.
• A good breakdown of why it matters that the Georgia Bulldogs made the NCAA Tournament.
• Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar lifted the suspension of senior guard Venoy Overton for the NCAA Tournament.

Southeast

• Old Dominion head coach Blaine Taylor is being mentioned in connection with the Utah opening.
• Butler may not possess the same versatility it had a year ago.
• Kansas State head coach Frank Martin feels the Big 12 was short-changed.
• Despite their season-long struggles, Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo believes the Spartans are primed for a deep tournament run.
• UCLA is dancing again after a one-year absence.
• Old friends Steve Lavin and Mark Few will meet in the the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

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Earlier today Oklahoma announced that it had fired Jeff Capel after two unsuccessful seasons following the departure of Blake Griffin. The firing of Capel shouldn’t come as a surprise to those who have followed the Sooners’ struggles over the past two seasons after going 30-6 and reaching the Elite 8 in 2009 before losing to eventual champion UNC. Despite the departure of Griffin the Sooners were expected to be competitive in the Big 12 and make another run in the NCAA Tournament as they had Willie Warren returning after an outstanding freshman season and had a strong incoming freshman class. Unfortunately for  Capel the Sooners were never able to get on-track and stumbled to a 13-18 season. This year the Sooners had considerably lower expectations, but finished in a similar fashion going 14-18 with their last game (and Capel’s last game as head coach of Oklahoma) being an embarrassing 20-point loss to rival Texas in the Big 12 Tournament that illustrated just how far the Sooners had fallen.

Capel will leave Norman with a sour taste in his mouth

In the end, Capel’s downfall boiled down to his inability to get significant production out of the four McDonald’s All-Americans that he landed in the past five seasons and the lack of interest that the Oklahoma fan base had for the team by the end of this season. Capel leaves Norman with a respectable record of 96-69 in five seasons at Oklahoma, but he went 27-36 leading to the Oklahoma administration to decide to terminate him even though he still has five years left on a recent extension and the school will have to reportedly pay between $2 and $3 million to buyout his contract. Despite his recent struggles, we expect to see Capel on the sidelines of a major program in the very near future (at least as an assistant) given his pedigree (coming from Duke under Coach K) and his prior success (the aforementioned Elite 8 appearance). This firing also adds to the list of solid jobs (Arkansas being the other prominent one) that would be highly coveted by many mid-major coaches and could lead to significant movement over the next few months.

Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC contributor. In this weekly piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball. This week, Jesse asks who the best prototype player in the game is, backs the Princeton Tigers, and laments his bad bracket luck. Yeah, Jesse…tell it to Coach Greenberg.

Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED…..trying to figure out a unique question. I was having a debate with someone about Connecticut, and in the course of that argument said that “you have to remember, the Huskies don’t have five Kembas.” Well, my buddy (RTC’s own David Ely) asked which player I would take five of in order to form a team that would be the most competitive against a full squad from another school. Think about it, it’s a really interesting question. They have to be able to handle the ball if a team pressed, have to be big enough to compete on the boards (is 6’4 or 6’5 big enough?), have to shoot well enough to keep a D honest, have to be a versatile defender, etc. I think Jordan Hamilton from Texas might be my pick, but here are some of players that came to mind: Harrison Barnes (he’s the prototype you’d think of, 6’8 with some guard skills), Kyle Singler, Derrick Williams, Daniel Hardy, Brad Wanamaker, Scotty Hopson, DeAndre Liggins, Brandon Knight, Cory Joseph. Who would you take?

Is Barnes the Best "All-Rounder" of a Player?

I LOVED…..two perfect buzzer beaters. Kemba Walker and Washington’s Isaiah Thomas gave us a couple of doozies to salivate over this week, and I liked them for different reasons. With Kemba, it was the ridiculous move. Yes, he had a post player on him, but that stepback was so comically absurd (Pitt’s Gary McGhee fell down) that the only critique might be that he exerted too much energy getting more space than he needed. He’s still my POY, by the way. With Thomas, it was the perfect setup. It was an incredible game (a TITLE game), overtime, swings for both teams…and a perfect ending. Thomas played the clock absolutely perfectly, and the backboard lit up just as his J swished through the hoop. Oh, and by the way, Gus Johnson was on the call (watch to get excited for this coming week): “Thomas….shake….crossover….stepback…..AHHHHIAAHHHH!!!!! AT THE BUZZER!!! YOUNG!!!…..ZEKE!!! (someone told Gus that Thomas was named after the NBA great PG)…….. COLD!!!! ….. BLOODED!!!!!”

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Well, UAB and VCU are in, while Virginia Tech and Colorado are out.  At least we had them on our CoM yesterday as one of the final 77.  Now it gets serious — down to the final 68 teams battling for the title.

Zach Hayes is the RTC bracketologist and a contributor. He will analyze the East Region throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Throughout Monday, we’ll be releasing our Bracket Prep analyses of each of the four NCAA Tournament regions.  The order will be as follows — please check back throughout the day for all four (all times eastern).

• West – 9 am
• Southeast – 11 am
• Southwest – 1 pm
• East – 3 pm

Region: EAST

Favorite: #1 Ohio State, 32-2 (16-2 Big Ten)- The Buckeyes come into the tournament as the #1 overall seed and the prohibitive favorite to cut down the nets. Big Ten freshman POY Jared Sullinger anchors the inside, but defenses can’t double Sully because of the Buckeyes’ plethora of perimeter options.

Should They Falter: #2 North Carolina, 26-7 (14-2)- The Tar Heels have been a completely different team since Kendall Marshall took over at the point guard position. His dynamic passing ability has aided Harrison Barnes, while big men Tyler Zeller and John Henson have also made tremendous strides.

Grossly Overseeded: #10 Georgia, 21-11 (9-7)- Most projected the Bulldogs to sneak into the field as one of the last teams in or even be left out altogether. Instead, they earn a #10 seed? Georgia has won just five games all season against the RPI top-100.

Grossly Underseeded: #11 Marquette, 20-14 (9-9) – The 9-9 record won’t jump out at you, but remember the Golden Eagles thrashed Notre Dame, won at Connecticut, beat Syracuse and also downed West Virginia in the Big East Tournament, all top five seeds. They also had many other close losses to good teams along the way

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): #13 Princeton, 25-6 (12-2)- We’ve seen this program pull off some March magic in the past. This year’s version is fairly efficient offensively and has capable players in Ian Hummer and Kareem Maddox. If the Tigers shock Kentucky, a more vulnerable West Virginia team likely awaits.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): #4 Kentucky, 25-8 (10-6)- This young Kentucky team is riding high after winning at Tennessee in the season finale and then dominating both Alabama and Florida in the SEC Tournament. Darius Miller is playing the best basketball of his career and it’s the junior amidst a trio of talented freshman that could make the difference for the Cats.

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