NCAA Tournament Tidbits: 03.24.11

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 24th, 2011

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

  • Often overlooked due to the star power that Ohio State has accumulated during his career, David Lighty has been the heart and soul of this season’s Buckeyes. The fifth-year senior will leave Columbus with three Big Ten championships, an NIT championship, and four trips to the NCAA Tournament.
  • Kentucky head coach John Calipari believes that other programs “Want to be us. Not beat us.” While that statement may seem a bit arrogant, it does make sense when thinking about the pageantry and tradition that goes along with the Wildcat basketball program.
  • While he does provide Marquette with some scoring, swingman Jimmy Butler prides himself on being a defensive stopper for the Golden Eagles. His coach, Buzz Williams, calls Butler, “the smartest player I’ve ever coached.” High, high praise.
  • North Carolina junior center Tyler Zeller has finally been healthy all season after missing significant time during his first two seasons. A healthy Zeller has been beneficial to the Tar Heels, as he has contributed 15.2 points per game along with 7.1 rebounds. Without Zeller’s presence in the post, UNC would probably not be a Sweet 16-caliber team.
  • Despite already having a tremendous season, Kentucky freshman guard Brandon Knight believes he is just finally living up to the high expectations that come with playing point guard for John Calipari. Interesting enough is that those expectations are not from Calipari, but from Knight himself.

Southeast

  • Growing up in the shadow of Gene Keady and Bob Knight has not turned Butler head coach Brad Stevens into the same type of loose cannon as the two legendary coaches. Instead, Stevens is known for his calm, steady, and studious approach that he takes to coaching the game of basketball.
  • Wisconsin point guard Jordan Taylor has been an elite performer all season for the Badgers. This is not surprising when considering that the junior craves for pressure situations where he can showcase his bravado.
  • Florida senior forward Chandler Parsons has gone through quite the maturation process, which has allowed him to fulfill his vast potential. Despite his success, Parsons continues to raise expectations for his team and himself.
  • There is not a team in the nation that is held to the strict honor code that Brigham Young is held to. Despite the loss of big man Brandon Davies due to a violation of this code, the rest of the Cougars have learned to live by its precepts and focus primarily on winning basketball games.
  • After resting his ankle earlier in the week, Florida sophomore guard Kenny Boynton believes he is “100 percent” for Thursday’s game with Brigham Young. Boynton will be an important player for the Gators in slowing down the BYU guard attack.

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Morning Five: 03.24.11 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 24th, 2011

  1. It appears as if Mike Anderson‘s decision to leave Missouri for Arkansas had everybody confused as many of the major media outlets were filing contradictory reports throughout the day. In the end, Anderson decided to head back to Arkansas where he will make $2.2 million per year over his 7-year contract, which will probably be incentive-laden although details are still sparse. Razorback fans will be hoping that Anderson can return the team to the success it enjoyed under Anderson’s mentor Nolan Richardson and Anderson will have a nice start with the outstanding incoming recruiting class that John Pelphrey signed.
  2. A DukeUNC NCAA Tournament match-up has been discussed so many times, but never happened leaving many to pretend that it could never happen. Gregg Doyel is not one of those people as he is already talking about the potential of the two teams meeting for the fourth time this season in the Final Four with Duke having a chance to advance to the championship game along with a chance to repeat and Coach K getting win #903 (passing Bob Knight‘s record). UNC would also be playing for the chance to reach the championship game after being essentially written off as a contender around Thanksgiving and more importantly prevent Duke from doing the aforementioned things. As Doyel notes the magnitude of such a game would almost be too much to comprehend.
  3. Speaking of Coach K and coaches switching jobs, those LA Laker rumors appear to have surfaced again and this time Coach K has turned down the theoretical offer before any Duke students had to resort to writing letters begging him to “Please still be my coach” (that was from a student who wasn’t on the basketball team). Honestly we are kind of surprised that this is even really an issue at this point in his career and would be stunned if he took a job that required him to leave his position on the sidelines at Duke so the rest of the media should probably calm down with any other rumors about the NBA trying to lure him away.
  4. One of our favorite regular columns is Luke Winn’s Power Rankings because unlike most iterations of power rankings online not only does he rank teams (duh), but he also teaches us something. This week’s Sweet 16 version is no different as he has interesting nuggets on every remaining team. Based on Luke’s ranking of VCU he might end up being Shaka Smart‘s next press conference target.
  5. Finally, we usually use this space to highlight coaches, players, and/or programs in the news, but The New York Times had an interesting feature on Ken Pomeroy and how college coaches are utilizing the data that he collects and incorporating it into their game plans. It is worth noting that although Pomeroy does this as a part-time job/hobby his basketball predictions are a lot more useful than what our local weatherman has to say about tomorrow’s weather.

NCAA Sweet Sixteen Game Analysis – Thursday

Posted by Brian Otskey on March 24th, 2011

After three days of quiet, it’s time to get serious about figuring out this national championship thing.  Sixteen to twelve… let’s check out tonight’s games.

#2 San Diego State vs. #3 Connecticut – West Regional Semifinal (at Anaheim, CA) – 7:15 pm ET on CBS.

Does Fisher Have Another Final Four Run in Him?

One of these teams has won two national championships. The other just got done winning their first two NCAA Tournament games ever. While the Aztecs have had a great breakout season and now stand at 34-2 on the season, UConn has won 44 Tournament games in the Jim Calhoun era alone. Luckily for SDSU, past performances in the Big Dance need have no impact on this year’s games. If you throw out the bloodlines for the two programs, you’ll find that we have the makings for what should be an excellent game. We’ve got star power on both ends of the court, with UConn’s point guard Kemba Walker a candidate for the National Player of the Year and SDSU’s Kawhi Leonard an All-American candidate. We’ve got big name coaches with national championships and Final Four experience, as Calhoun will be matched up with Steve Fisher, who won one title at Michigan in ’89, then got back to the title game in both ’92 and ’93. We’ve got an impressive freshman class including Shabazz Napier, Roscoe Smith, and Jeremy Lamb on the UConn side matched up with three starting seniors on the Aztec squad. In short, we’ve got all the trappings of a serious battle. For the Aztecs, the big goal is going to be slowing Kemba Walker. While SDSU has had plenty of experience at trying to slow another high-scoring point guard (one Jimmer Fredette – you may have heard of him), Walker is a different challenge for SDSU, as he is a quicker, shiftier guard than Fredette, and a guy who you’d rather have shooting the three than challenging his defenders off the dribble. As a result, it is likely that D.J. Gay and/or Chase Tapley will get the majority of minutes tasked with defending Walker, while frontcourt players like Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas will be left to keep one eye on Walker while trying to body-up the Huskies’ athletic offensive rebounders up front. The SDSU frontcourt will also have to provide the majority of the scoring, and given that they haven’t seen a team as big, long and bouncy as the Huskies, they’ll need to prove that their opponents’ size does not bother them. The Aztecs figure to have plenty of support from their fans, who only need to drive about an hour north to attend the game, but they’ll need to prove that their shaky performance down the stretch in Saturday’s game against Temple was an aberration rather than the norm. Until they can close out a game in the NCAA Tournament with confidence, we’re not sure they’re trustworthy against a big-time foe.

The RTC Certified Pick: Connecticut

#2 Florida vs. #3 BYU – Southeast Region Semifinals (at New Orleans, LA) – 7:27 pm ET on TBS.

Looking at this game on paper, it’s pretty hard to find any discernible differences between these two teams. The main determinant of this game will likely be tempo. BYU would love nothing more than to get the Gators caught up in a fast-paced game, forcing them to recklessly throw up ill-advised three pointers leading to long rebounds and many Cougar runouts. Dave Rose’s team excels in transition with Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery leading the charge. While Emery is certainly a terrific point guard, his biggest impact on this game could come defensively. He’ll guard Florida’s Erving Walker in all likelihood and that could be a major problem for the 5’8 Walker. Emery’s length and quickness has the potential to disrupt the Florida floor general, plus the BYU senior ranks #15 individually in steal percentage. If Walker can’t get the offense flowing, Florida may result to lots of isolations and quick shots, certainly not ideal for a team that does its best work at a slower pace in the half court. The Gators have a big advantage inside and have to use it to win. Billy Donovan needs to keep Kenny Boynton, expected to play after spraining his ankle against UCLA, in check and make sure his guards work the ball inside to Vernon Macklin, Chandler Parsons and Alex Tyus. This could very well be the game where the loss of Brandon Davies dooms BYU for good. The Cougars rank a paltry #222 in offensive rebounding percentage so Florida should hold a significant edge on the glass. BYU has been out-rebounded in four of their seven games without Davies and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Defensively, Florida has to keep Fredette off the free throw line and force him to make outside shots. It’s alright for the Gators if Jimmer drains more than a few bombs but he’s most dangerous when he can get into the lane and to the stripe, or create for others when defenders are drawn to him inside. Florida ranks #15 in defensive free throw rate and will have to keep that up against Fredette specifically. We have to wonder if Donovan will assign Parsons the task of defending Fredette. Parsons is a big man (6’9) but he’s fairly quick for his size and can bother Jimmer with his superior length. Quickness will be the issue because Fredette possess a terrific first step to blow by opponents. The Cougars will have an edge at the line if this is a close game since Florida struggles as a team (67%). It should be a terrific matchup but a slight edge has to go to the Gators in New Orleans this evening.

The RTC Certified Pick: Florida.

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Around The Blogosphere: March 24, 2011

Posted by nvr1983 on March 24th, 2011

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

News/Analysis

  • Mike Anderson’s Short Legacy: Mizzou Matters Again: “Mike Anderson brought the most important possible characteristic to Columbia in his five years here: positivity. There were plenty of less than positive moments, from Athenagate to a “disappointing” 23-win season this year, but in five years, Anderson gave hope to Missouri fans that they could once again cheer on a winning program.  Not only that, but he created that winning program. We went from Popcorn-gate to said “disappointing” tourney appearance in just half a decade. We’ve heard a lot about Missouri winning more games in the last three games and ever before, and while that stat is inflated by the fact that teams simply play more games now … Mizzou won a lot of games. And Anderson leaves the program in infinitely better shape than he found it.” (Rock M Nation)
  • Hail Caesar!: “In the later Roman Empire, there was a tradition whereby two men ruled the empire at the same time. The dominant Emperor took the cognomen Augustus, named after the first emperor Caesar Augustus.  The subordinate Emperor took the cognomen Caesar, named after Julius Caesar. The relationship between the Football and Basketball team works in much the same way. Tressel, as the Augustus, is doubtless the big man on campus. Thad Matta, as the Caesar, works under Tressel’s shadow, yet he’s still a force to reckon with on his own. With the football program dealing with clouds of distraction and controversy, it’s the duty of the Caesar to take command and keep the ship sailing through the murk. While pondering this state of affairs, I couldn’t help but think that Matta may be the best coach we’ve ever had prowling the court. Fred Taylor won the only national championship in Buckeye history. If we’re lucky, Thad Matta may join him. But what does the rest of the resume say?” (Eleven Warriors)

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Vegas Odds to Win the National Title

Posted by rtmsf on March 23rd, 2011

Sixteen teams with visions of glory dancing through their heads.  But only one can be left standing twelve days from now at around 11:30 pm ET on the hardwood court at Reliant Stadium in Houston.  Everyone has their own opinions on which teams will remain after this coming weekend and those most likely to ultimately cut the nets down, but we here at RTC are always interested in knowing what the people who make it their job to set gambling markets have to say. 

Everybody’s Angling to Play Here on Monday Night

To that end, here’s what one online sportsbook has to say about the odds for each of the sixteen remaining teams to win the national title.  We’ll have a few brief comments after the table (note: the arrows represent how the odds are trending, where up is more of a favorite, down is less of one).

Some QnD Thoughts:

  • We’ve been tracking the odds this week and it’s interesting that Duke is dropping even with the news that Kyrie Irving will play significant minutes and there’s a reasonable expectation that he could make the Blue Devils a much more dangerous team quickly.  The oddsmakers are also boffo on Florida State this week, as they’ve risen a full percentage point over the past couple of days (that may not seem like much, but in the world of futures, it’s a significant increase). 
  • The top three teams are #1 seeds and obvious favorites, but things start to break down a little bit after the first two #2 seeds, SDSU and FloridaNorth Carolina is behind a couple of #4 seeds, Kentucky and Wisconsin, while #3 BYU is getting worse odds than #10 Florida State!  Did the Seminoles just sign Sam Cassell or something over the last couple of days?
  • It’s somewhat surprising to see #8 Butler so low after knocking off #1 Pittsburgh and of course the distinct memory of how close the Bulldogs came last year to cutting the nets down.  Last year isn’t this year, of course, but many of the same players are there, and so is Brad Stevens; furthermore, with games against #4 Wisconsin and/or #2 Florida/#3 BYU, there’s nobody in that region with the ability to simply overwhelm BU.
  • We think #12 Richmond at the bottom of the odds may in fact be a better team than #11 Marquette and #11 VCU, but those two teams don’t have to play top-seed Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen.  This indicates that there’s probably as much weight given to the path in front of a team as there is to its actual record, seeding and historical performance from this season.
  • Speaking of which, #5 Arizona is the third-lowest team on this list, and not all that much higher than Richmond!  This must have a lot to do with the fact that, according to the odds, three of the six most likely teams to win the title are located in the West Region along with the Wildcats.
  • If you normalize the odds to equal 100%, then according to the oddsmakers, the three #1 seeds have a roughly 61% chance to win it all.  The rest of the field correspondingly has a 39% chance.  We’re just not sure that the #1 seeds are that much better than the rest of the field this year.  If you’re looking for value, it might be worth a look at those #2-#4 seeds. 

NIT: Refresher at the Quarterfinal Round

Posted by rtmsf on March 23rd, 2011

Walker Carey is an RTC contributor.

Given all the media and fan attention on the NCAA Tournament, it’s sometimes easy to forget that there were 32 other teams (several pretty good ones) playing on (mostly) the off days.  The NIT is the grand-daddy of postseason basketball, so let’s get you briefly caught up on where that tournament is at the quarterfinal stage.

Alabama Bracket

The first two rounds in the Alabama Bracket have seen the top seeds advancing in each game, which sets up a quarterfinal game between top seeded Alabama and second seeded Miami (FL) Wednesday night. Alabama has used solid performances from guards Tony Mitchell and Trevor Releford, as well as from big man JaMychal Green to breeze past Coastal Carolina and New Mexico in home games. The Hurricanes have gotten solid guard play from Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott to earn victories over Florida Atlantic and Missouri State in Coral Gables. The quarterfinals will come down to whether Frank Haith’s team can find scoring options against one of the better defensive teams still playing basketball this season.  The winner advance to the semifinals in New York City.

Colorado Bracket

The first round of the Colorado Bracket gave us two of the biggest upsets of the tournament thus far. After getting their bubble burst on Selection Sunday, second seeded Saint Mary’s was upset at home by seventh seeded Kent State after blowing a 13-point lead. The first round also saw third seeded Colorado State lose at home to sixth seeded Fairfield. The Golden Flashes topped the Stags in the second round to advance to the quarterfinal. In the top half of the bracket, Colorado has used strong performances from standouts Alec Burks and Cory Higgins to easily defeat Texas Southern, California and Kent State in succession.  The Buffs are playing like a team with a chip on its shoulder, and will advance to NYC to await the winner of the Alabama-Miami (FL) game.

Boston College Bracket

The first round of the Boston College Bracket saw all the top seeds advance and do so fairly convincingly. However, things changed in the second round, as top seeded Boston College was blown out at home by fourth seeded Northwestern. The Wildcats used a balanced attack led by John Shurna and Michael Thompson to throttle the Eagles. Elsewhere in the second round, Washington State used a strong performance from star guard Klay Thompson to get past third seed Oklahoma State by a 74-64 margin. The second round results set up a quarterfinal matchup between fourth seed Northwestern and second seed Washington State. Considering that the game will be played in Pullman and Klay Thompson might be the best player in the NIT this year, Wazzu should advance to the semifinals in Madison Square Garden next week.

Virginia Tech Bracket

The first round of the Virginia Tech Bracket contained the top individual performance of the tournament thus far. College of Charleston guard Andrew Goudelock netted 39 points to lead the sixth seeded Cougars to an upset victory over three seed Dayton. The Cougars remained hot in the second round by knocking out star guard Norris Cole and the Cleveland State Vikings. The top half of the bracket saw top seed Virginia Tech and fourth seed Wichita State advance to the second round where the Hokies and Shockers battled in an overtime classic. In the end, Wichita State was able to ride a balanced scoring effort to defeat the Hokies and overcome Malcolm Delaney’s 30 points. Both the Cougars and the Shockers are on a roll heading into the quarterfinal Wednesday night, making it a tough game to predict, but if Goudelock catches fire for Bobby Cremins’ squad then College of Charleston will enjoy a trip to New York as the sole mid-major representative next week in Manhattan. 

Behind the Numbers: Structures and Strategies

Posted by KCarpenter on March 23rd, 2011

 
Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.
 
Nate Silver isn’t always right, but I’m beginning to wonder why I would ever bet against him. Last week, Silver published a consideration of seeding where he argued that because of the structure of the bracket, the eighth and ninth seeds are at a considerable disadvantage compared to much lower-seeded teams. This makes intuitive sense because the way the bracket is constructed the eight and nine have to play a top-seeded team before everyone but the sixteen seed. Still, it sounds funny and it is odd that a twelve seed has a better statistical chance of making the Sweet Sixteen than any other seed between seven and sixteen. I was intellectually able to read and understand this logic, yet I ignored the fact that because of this quirk in seeding, George Mason was worse off in terms of having a shot at making the Sweet Sixteen than Virginia Commonwealth or Richmond

The Spiders Perhaps Weren't As Much of a Surprise After All

One eight seed made the Sweet Sixteen. The rest of the Sweet Sixteen party crashers? Two eleven seeds, a ten, and a twelve, including Virginia Commonwealth and Richmond. If you tally up the rest of the seeds, this looks pretty much like Silver’s predicted distribution. The structural inequalities of the bracket should have told us to expect more second round (excuse me, “third round” upsets) from the seeds in the 10-12 range. Of course, are these even really upsets? The Pittsburgh loss to Butler was a genuine shock but the rest of the “upsets” really seem to fall upon the coin flip in the flat part of the s-curve.  Silver notes that the composite computer “power ratings” show essentially the same difference between first and second seeds as between the fifth and thirteenth seeds. What this means is what we knew all along: the best teams are in a whole separate class from the bulk of the teams in the tournament, while the majority of teams are at close to the same level. This is a long way to get to this essential point: We shouldn’t be surprised to see VCU, Richmond, Marquette or Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen.

We also shouldn’t act like the bracket design is done affecting who makes the Final Four and who wins the championship.  Ken Pomeroy was quick to run the log5 probabilities of the remaining sixteen and had some interesting findings. While you would think that winning two games would have increased every team’s chances of winning it all, you’d only be mostly right. San Diego State and Kentucky actually saw their chances at a championship drop as the biggest obstacles in their path to the championship refused to be upset. Conversely, Kansas’s location in the decimated Southwest Region has made them a near-prohibitive favorite to make the Final Four. Likewise, Pittsburgh’s ignoble fall in an already weak Southeast Region has given the Wisconsin Badgers a real shot at a championship. The Badgers’ calculated chances of winning it all went from a mere 2.5% to 9.5%. Of course, technically, that’s a tiny increase in proportion to the change in VCU’s chances. The Rams went from having a 0.0005% chance at a championship to a 0.2% chance at winning the big one. While those are still long odds, their chances of winning increased 400-fold. So that’s worth something.

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NCAA Tournament Tidbits: 03.23.11

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 23rd, 2011

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

  • Ohio State freshman big man Jared Sullinger was named Sporting News Freshman of the Year. Sullinger averages 17.1 points per game for the nation’s top team, and this is far from the last piece of hardware he’s going to receive from this season’s efforts.
  • Remember John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Eric Bledsoe? Well, this year, Kentucky has Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones. John Calipari has mastered the art of turning freshmen into NBA prospects.
  • Darius Johnson-Odom, a native of North Carolina, is making his dream come true playing for Marquette in the Sweet 16. Interestingly enough for Johnson-Odom, Marquette’s Sweet 16 opponent is the North Carolina Tar Heels.
  • Battling a knee injury while being forced to guard the opponent’s top scorer is no easy task, but UNC guard Dexter Strickland has performed the task admirably. While Strickland is not much of a scorer, his defensive tenacity is just as important to the Tar Heels as Tyler Zeller‘s hook shots and Kendall Marshall‘s passing accuracy.
  • Marquette head coach Buzz Williams has been rumored to take the Oklahoma job ever since the Sooner position opened up. If Oklahoma wants to secure Williams’ services, it will have to open up the wallet.

Southeast

  • Butler struggled throughout much of the early portion of the season; however, things began to change for the Bulldogs around February 1. Head coach Brad Stevens attributes this change to the elevation in the play of guard Shelvin Mack.
  • Some may call the swing offense employed by Wisconsin “boring,” but this offense has been effective for Bo Ryan‘s squad for many years. It should not matter if an offense is not very entertaining to watch. What should matter is if it works.
  • Brigham Young head coach Dave Rose has seen his star rise in the coaching world during the Cougars’ magical season. The question emerges of whether Rose will return to Provo next season.
  • After not winning a tournament game since cutting down the nets in 2007, Billy Donovan has his Florida team primed to make another Final Four run. While no players from the ’07 team remain, the program still knows how to get it done late in the tournament.
  • Butler has won several games down the stretch this season, including its first two tournament games. This clutch success can be attributed to the even-keel demeanor that the Bulldogs exhibit throughout the late stages of a game.

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Optimist/Pessimist: Thursday’s Sweet 16 Edition

Posted by zhayes9 on March 23rd, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

On Tuesday, 68 teams still had hopes of reaching college basketball’s pinnacle on April 4 in Houston.

Over a week later, 68 have been whittled down to 16. Whether it’s heavy favorite Ohio State dispatching of their inferiors without breaking a sweat or VCU stunning the hoops world with their thrashings of Georgetown and Purdue, each of the 16 preparing for this weekend’s games have taken alternate routes to this point. Regardless of location, draw or circumstance, this select few is thrilled to still have a pulse.

Let’s delve into each Sweet 16 participant from two polar opposite points of view: the indelible optimist and the hopeless pessimist.  Everywhere from Lawrence to Richmond, fan bases are filled with those that see the glass half full and those that view the glass half empty. The optimist will take the viewpoint that their favorite team is destined for Houston while the pessimist sees the bitter end approaching Thursday (Friday’s teams posted tomorrow):

 

Did Kemba save some magic for the Aztecs?

Connecticut

Optimist: We have the best late-game scorer in the country, a weapon that’s simply uncontrollable with the shot clock winding down and the chips on the table. Unlike the Kemba Walker show that dominated the early months of the schedule, our secondary pieces continue to grow and mature tremendously. Alex Oriakhi has posted three double-digit scoring and rebounding games in our last five contests, Jeremy Lamb is reliable scoring option #2 and Shabazz Napier allows Walker an opportunity to create scoring looks off the ball. Nobody is hotter or brimming with more confidence than my Huskies, who have won seven in a row against #6 seeds or better.

Pessimist: Fatigue has to start to wear on a team consisting of mostly freshmen and sophomores that haven’t been through the rigors. Thursday’s game will mark the tenth game they’ve played in the month of March only. Kemba Walker has rested a grand total of 21 minutes in that brutal stretch. Running on adrenaline can only take him so far; eventually, his legs are going to give and his jump shot will certainly follow. The bruising nature of the San Diego State frontcourt will surely intimidate the inconsistent Oriakhi and we simply lack the depth to match the likes of Malcolm Thomas, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard should he disappear or pick up two early fouls. SDSU also ranks in the top 25 in both two point and three point FG defense. Our pedestrian numbers on the season- 47% from two and 33% from three- will only exacerbate that strength.

San Diego State

Optimist: This team matches up phenomenally with Connecticut and Duke. If Oriakhi disappears like he has in the past, Calhoun has to rely on Charles Okwandu or Tyler Olander and that’ll be their death sentence. Frankly, the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly aren’t a concern. Our bread and butter all season has been defense; with Leonard and D.J. Gay struggling to find their shots late in the season and against Temple, we simply locked down on the other end. UConn hasn’t faced a physical defense like ours since Pittsburgh and there’s no Gary McGhee on this roster that’s a liability switching against ball screens for Walker. We can also throw our steady, dependable senior guard Gay at Walker and make his life plenty more difficult. Our main weakness is three-point shooting and UConn was middle of the pack in the Big East at defending the outside shot.

Pessimist: Did you watch that game against Temple? The second half exemplifies the scoring struggles this team has exhibited all season. We have nobody to drain perimeter jump shots lately with Gay struggling and Fisher unable to compromise our defense and play James Rahon extended minutes. We just don’t have a reliable scoring threat at the end of shot clocks to match the wits of Walker and I can easily envision a devastating lull offensively late in the second half of a tight ballgame. It’s not like UConn won’t be prepared for a physical, athletic defense. They’ve only seen it all year long in the bloodbath that can be the Big East, and, counting the postseason, they’ve won 15 of those duels. The way Leonard was disrupted by the length of Lavoy Allen was deeply concerning and makes me think that Roscoe Smith could do the same for the Huskies.

Duke

Optimist: When Coach K hinted that Kyrie Irving may play limited minutes against Hampton, we immediately became the national title favorite. I was scared to death of Texas; with Joseph and Balbay they can throw two outstanding perimeter defenders at Nolan Smith and Irving and I had zero confidence in Miles and Mason Plumlee containing Tristan Thompson down low. Arizona is a much easier assignment. Their guard play is mediocre offensively and they’ll become well-acquainted with the workings of both Smith and Irving on the defensive end. We’re so much Arizona’s superior defensively it’s not even comparable, another reason why Texas did us an enormous favor by blowing that game. San Diego State doesn’t have the backcourt to survive against our foursome and Nolan Smith can match Walker point-for-point late if Connecticut comes calling. We went 5-20 from three and beat an ultra-confident Michigan team, showing those handful of games where we were dependent on making threes to win are in the past, especially with Irving back in the fold.

Pessimist: I may be in the minority, but I’m not convinced Irving returning is the best thing for this team. Coach K even admitted that he coached two Duke’s this season: one in November with Irving and one the rest of the season without. Now we’re going to transition impeccably back to November Duke without missing a beat? I was much more confident in our ability to score with Smith controlling the basketball at the point and utilizing ball screens at the top of the key. I’m worried about Derrick Williams completely taking  Singler out of his game. Kyle has scored 12 per game in his last four and even missed three straight free throws on Sunday. We may not need him against Arizona, but beating either San Diego State or Connecticut without Singler’s services is a stretch.

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Around The Blogosphere: March 23, 2011

Posted by nvr1983 on March 23rd, 2011

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

News/Analysis

  • NCAA Admits Backcourt Violation Call Was Incorrect. Syracuse Fans Feel So Much Better: “So there you go, the back-court violation call on Scoop Jardine late in the Syracuse-Marquette game was officially deemed incorrect. Alrighty. It’s a gesture from the NCAA but an empty one at best. Especially when NCAA officiating coordinator John Adams says the play was not reviewable anyway. Thanks, John Adams. So basically what you’re saying is you’re officials made a terrible call on what should be a very straight-forward basketball rule but even if it was evident at the time that it was a bad call, it couldn’t have been overturned anyway because, well, who the hell knows.” (Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician)
  • Bruce Pearl’s Greatest Hits: Why We Love Him Anyway: “I wrote the bulk of this post last night, before Tennessee released the statements of Mike Hamilton and Chancellor Jimmy Cheek saying that they were essentially left with no choice but to withdraw their support for the retention of Bruce Pearl because of additional unspecified NCAA violations and some non-NCAA issues as recently as a couple of weeks ago. I went to bed thinking I wasn’t going to be able to use this because the support and love we’d shown the coach throughout the past several months always assumed that his misdeeds were behind him and that the alleged bump violation was really nothing more than an allegation of something that didn’t actually break the rule. An “additional violation in March” shatters that assumption and blows the argument up.” (Rocky Top Talk)
  • Bruce Pearl Fired, Tennessee Recruits Look Syracuse’s Way: “As you know by now, Bruce Pearl has been fired as the head coach of Tennessee basketball. My favorite part of the story has to be that Pearl was STILL committing violations as recently as this month. That’s cramazing. So now Tennessee commences falling apart and returning to the middle of the SEC pack (Sorry, Tobias). As Pearl goes, so go his sterling recruiting classes, including those in the current one. And it looks like at least one member of the Vols’ 2011 class is going to look at Syracuse.” (Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician)

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