Another Friday afternoon, another RTC Podblast. In this week’s edition, we discuss our Winners and Losers of the past week worth of action, riff on Bruce Weber’s meltdown, and discuss big upcoming games this weekend.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Somewhat unbelievably, the second-to-last regular season Saturday is upon us. Plenty of big time and bubble games are on the schedule as the stretch run really heats up.

#3 Missouri @ #4 Kansas – 4:00 PM EST Saturday on CBS (*****)

• The final Border War game promises to be another terrific display of basketball between two top five teams that really don’t care for one another. Missouri won the first meeting between these teams, but to do it again it will have to defend at a higher level. Both teams shot over 50% at Mizzou Arena three weeks ago, but Kansas has been the better defensive team all season long. Now playing at home in virtually impenetrable Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks have to like their chances in this one. Kansas has a huge rebounding and size advantage in the paint with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey going up against Ricardo Ratliffe. While Ratliffe is a great finisher around the bucket, he was held to six points in the first meeting, limited by foul trouble in only 20 minutes of action. Kansas can neutralize Ratliffe and force Missouri to make shots. Missouri hit 10 threes in the first meeting, led by Marcus Denmon’s six. Kansas will have to tighten up a three point defense that ranks #173 nationally in order to prevent that from happening again.
  

  Can Denmon & The Tigers Rebound?

• Denmon’s 29-point effort against Kansas on February 4 lifted him out of a slump and his high level of play has continued since then. Denmon and Kim English have to make shots or else Kansas will have a significant edge in this game. The Jayhawks should be dominant inside with Robinson going against Ratliffe with Withey by his side. Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation in two point percentage. Defensively, Bill Self has to be worried about the three point line. While Kansas is a very efficient defensive team, they can be beaten from the arc. Missouri is certainly a team capable of doing that as it moves the ball well and has a multitude of deep threats lining the perimeter. Frank Haith needs a good game at point guard out of Phil Pressey, otherwise Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor could take over the game quickly as they did against Baylor at the Phog. Taylor has had an outstanding senior season but is vulnerable to turnovers. Look for Missouri to target him defensively in order to prevent him from getting into a rhythm and setting up the Jayhawk offense.
•  The big question mark here is can Missouri defend at a high level against an elite opponent on the road? The Tigers are last in the Big 12 in three point defense and their overall efficiency rating leaves a lot to be desired. Kansas is going to get its points inside but is not a particularly great outside shooting team. However, Taylor poses a big threat and must be held in check if Missouri is going to beat Kansas in a place where almost nobody wins. Until proven otherwise, we can’t pick against the Jayhawks in such an emotionally charged game as this one.

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Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

While the nation is no longer captured by the potential of an undefeated team, Murray State looks like it prefers it that way. No longer in the first block of SportsCenter highlights or constantly having a spotlight on their Ohio Valley conference games, the Racers have been playing their best ball of the season. Losing at home to Tennessee State two weeks ago was not a fun occasion at the time, but Isaiah Canaan, Donte Poole, and company look like they have turned the experience into an opportunity to play looser and more aggressive, the staple of Murray basketball this season. The Racers got revenge against Tennessee State with an 80-62 win on Thursday night, giving the team another convincing victory since that lone loss. At 27-1, 14-1 in the OVC, and playing better than ever, the Racers couldn’t be happier with how things are playing out and they hope to continue this run into the postseason.

Murray State Has Gotten Stronger Since Losing its Only Game (AP Photo/J. Roberson)

While Murray State’s bid for perfection was giving the program some great time in the spotlight, the added pressure was evident in the team’s lackluster play. In the eight games before the team suffered its first loss, Murray was keeping the undefeated streak alive but also showing signs that it was slipping. The Racers barely hung on to beat Tennessee Tech at home, needed a late run in the final minutes to win at Morehead State, trailed by double digits in the second half versus Southeast Missouri State before storming back for a victory, and defeated 4-26 Tennessee-Martin by just seven points. On February 9, Murray State finally couldn’t make up for its poor play for much of the game and took the home ‘L’ against Tennessee State.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

• Last Four In: NC State, Northwestern, Texas, Washington
• First Four Out: South Florida, Oregon, Arizona, Dayton
• Next Four Out: Miami, LSU, UCF, Massachusetts

(bold indicates auto bid, italics indicates a bubble team)

1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State

2 Seeds: Missouri, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Michigan, Marquette, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Florida, Indiana

5 Seeds: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Temple, Wichita State

6 Seeds: UNLV, Murray State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico

7 Seeds: Creighton, Kansas State, Gonzaga, San Diego State

8 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Virginia, California, Iowa State

9 Seeds: Saint Louis, Memphis, Cincinnati, Harvard

10 Seeds: Connecticut, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Purdue

11 Seeds: Alabama, Southern Miss, Long Beach State, Seton Hall

12 Seeds: BYU, Xavier, Colorado State, Washington, Texas

13 Seeds: Northwestern, NC State, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Akron

14 Seeds: Iona, Drexel, Nevada, Davidson

15 Seeds: Belmont, Weber State, Valparaiso, Bucknell

16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, UT-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

• Cincinnati is one of the more difficult teams to seed in recent memory. It really boils down to how much you believe the committee is going to weigh RPI/SOS relative to RPI top-50 wins. I tried to find a happy medium at a #9 seed. The Bearcats computer numbers are appalling (74 RPI, 114 SOS, 319 non-conference SOS) but no teams behind them in today’s S-Curve boast the same abundance of quality wins: at Georgetown, Louisville, at Connecticut, Notre Dame, Seton Hall with a 6-4 true road record and a 10-5 mark in the Big East. That’s an impressive portfolio for a supposed bubble team without even glimpsing at the RPI. One has to believe Cincinnati is in at 11-7.
• Missouri dropping from the third number one seed to the first number two seed after one loss may seem a bit harsh, but it’s more about what Duke and Michigan State have done than what Missouri hasn’t done. Duke and Michigan State played much more rugged non-conference schedules and currently lead their respective leagues. For example, Duke beat Michigan State, Kansas, Michigan, Washington, NC State, Belmont and Davidson along the way, not to mention true road ACC wins at North Carolina and Florida State. Duke may be the most flawed top seed in recent memory, but that shouldn’t alter any objective analysis of their resume to date. Missouri is hampered a bit by a #269 non-conference SOS and fewer quality wins throughout the season than either the Devils or Spartans. That can change with a win at Kansas on Saturday.
• All Oregon and Arizona can do is keep winning and let the dominoes fall as they may. Until a potential Pac-12 tournament meeting with either Cal or Washington, there’s no opportunity for even anything resembling a quality win remaining on the schedule. The Ducks visit rival Oregon State before finishing at home with Colorado and Utah while Arizona topped USC last night and end their schedule with UCLA and Arizona State. Playing in the Pac-12 this season limits chances to pick up scalps, especially after squandering nearly all of their marquee non-league games in November and December. Washington’s sweep of Arizona looms mighty large at the moment.
• The opposite is true with South Florida. The Bulls back-loaded schedule brings Cincinnati to Tampa this Sunday. Depending on how other bubble teams fare, USF may move into Monday’s field with a victory. A trip to Louisville and a home date with West Virginia prior to the Big East Tournament present even more opportunities. If Stan Heath’s team can win two games, it would be awfully hard for the committee to leave a 12-6 Big East team out of the field despite non-league losses to Auburn, Penn State and Old Dominion. USF boasts a 48 RPI, 28 SOS and 49 non-conference SOS.

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Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. TT4 will cover four selected teams of interest – Syracuse, Indiana, Murray State, and UNLV – by tracking their ups, downs, and exciting developments throughout the course of the season.

The ‘wildcard’ version of TT4 is back, and this week we take a look at the voices of each team. Below you’ll find key quotes throughout the season from players, coaches, and media members who cover each of our four squads. With just three games remaining (or less) for each team in the regular season, it’s an appropriate time to take the pulse of the programs before they head into the home stretch:

Tom Crean Has Had Much to Say This Season for the Surprising Hoosiers (AP Photo/A. Colwell)

Indiana Hoosiers

• “They’ve been punking us the past couple years and we realized that. This year we had to go toe-to-toe with them.” Guard Victor Oladipo, 12/31 (after win over Ohio State)
• “Our mindset is next man up.  We know that a lot of different people at different times can step up and make a play that helps us win games on either offense or defense.  We have done a good job of being unselfish and worrying only about getting the win.” Guard Jordan Hulls, 1/3
• “The bottom line is this team gritted it out again. They have won 14 games 14 different ways with a lot of room for improvement, and I’m excited about them.” Coach Tom Crean, 1/5
• “We can’t be satisfied with moral victories.” Center Cody Zeller, 1/18
• “I think the most difficult thing to swallow from one game to another, though, is simply the consistency of this basketball team in recent weeks. You really just don’t know what you’re going to get from week to week, game to game, minute to minute. And that’s what I find to be the big difference between the 15-1 start and the 2-5 record since then. It comes down to consistency. And it’s across the board.” Beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star, 2/2
• “If you’re going to get physical with [Zeller], he’s going to respond. The only soft thing about Cody is that he’s soft-spoken on the court, but other than that he’s a tough, tough person.” Coach Tom Crean, 2/9

Murray State Racers

• “Coach has a great personality and he cares about our team more than anything, and the same way he cares about us we care about him and we try to go out and play as hard as we can for him.” Guard Isaiah Canaan, 12/15

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1. Ken Pomeroy is best known for his ranking system that appears to divide the new school from the old school, but his blog, which is much less publicized also produces some interesting analysis. His most recent posting from yesterday will certainly get some attention. In that posting Pomeroy analyzes the correlation between a team’s performance in the first half to the season versus the second half of the season for a specific statistic. In particular, Pomeroy focuses on 3-point shooting and the results may surprise you. We are sure that on a message board or e-mail thread this is sparking some furious debate. We are not sure that we buy everything that Pomeroy is trying to say, but we would love to see more discussion of this theory.
2. Every week Luke Winn brings us excellent statistical nuggets, but this week he brings out one of our favorite relatively straight-forward ones where he looks at assist distribution and also looks at which player relies on those assists most for his scoring. The assist distribution statistic is the more widely used one (including at least once by ESPN last season without citing Winn’s work), but combining it with the assist reliance figure makes it a much more useful tool. We are sure that the analysis for most teams would be interesting, but the analysis for North Carolina and in particular its two super sophomores is noteworthy and will probably lead to a discussion about team dynamics among Tar Heel fans.
3. We linked to the discussion of a Value Add rating system in college basketball earlier this season and if you have been waiting for such a system then this list of the 200 best players according to their “Value Add” is for you. One of the first things I look for when analyzing any new metric is how close does it fit with my beliefs. There are a few names on the list that seem strange, but for the most part the list seems pretty reasonable. By looking at offense and defense in a combined statistic it raises the profile of players that may get overlooked by people who just focus on big-number statistics like points, rebounds, and assists. Obviously, this system needs some more work as suggested by the fact that they made some tweaks from last year’s system.
4. For much of the past ten years Larry Eustachy has the been the subject of many jokes, but this year might be the year that college basketball fans begin to look at Eustachy in a different light. Most of that will be due to his solid Southern Mississippi team, but at least some of it should come from pieces like the one by Pat Forde that take a deeper look into Eustachy’s life beyond a serious of unfortunate photos that hid a much more troubling problem. Having encountered many people who have had to deal with similar problems on a much less public stage, we hope that Eustachy continues to succeed in his battle with alcoholism much more than we care about whether or not his team succeeds on the court.
5. It is probably the worst-kept secret in conference expansion, but Temple is reportedly in talks with Big East about joining the conference. The Big East is especially interested in making this happen soon because the departure of West Virginia to the Big 12 means that the Big East only has seven football teams for next season making next fall potentially embarrassing for the conference (more than just the usual product they put out on the field). Most conference moves surprise us initially, but this one has been so well choreographed and we have seen so many of these moves that we would be surprised if this did not happen.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

#8 Duke at #17 Florida State – 7:00PM EST on ESPN (****)

• Duke lost to FSU on their home court at the buzzer the last time these two played. Going on the road to exact revenge and keep pace with North Carolina for the ACC lead looms large for the Blue Devils. There are two key areas that Duke needs to focus on in order to beat the Seminoles – three-point defense and getting to the free throw line. While the Blue Devils have the top three-point defense in the ACC, they let the Seminoles hit 50% from downtown in the first game. It’s a key area of focus because in 3 of the 4 Duke losses, they have allowed an eFG of over 60%. Additionally, keep a close eye on their ability to get to the line. When Duke does not get to the line frequently they are vulnerable. Their three worst free throw rate performances of the season are all losses.
  

  Can FSU Knock Duke Off Again?

• Florida State was able to beat Duke in their previous match-up with its strongest shooting effort of the season. For a team that is known for its defense, FSU is the best shooting team in the ACC. Their three-point shooting has gotten much better in conference play to give their eFG a big boost. Only Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Clemson have been able to hold the Seminoles under 50% eFG in a single game. They must watch the turnovers though as they are turning the ball over at a rate of 22.3% in ACC play.
• This game will come down to free throws and three-point defense. Both teams rely on free throws to win ball games. When taken away with good defense and no fouls, they lose. With so many of Dukes shots coming from beyond the three-point line (40%) and FSU’s recent success from downtown, the team who defends the three better should win.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Crystal balls are in full supply every November. We pour through every known statistic to find that overlooked All-American candidate. We criticize the coaches for their preseason picks and condemn the AP poll for overrating Duke. National player of the year rankings are compiled and there’s an inevitable temptation to put some serious coin on that perfect Final Four sleeper at 25/1. It all seems so easy.

Of course, there’s a reason why we don’t all own private islands in the Caribbean. Some of our predictions compare to Nostradamus’ best work while others blow up in our faces. You can’t win them all. For every successful prediction, there’s one you’d like to forget. Here’s a brief rundown of what many considered conventional wisdom before the season and whether those statements turned fall under the category of hits or misses:

Zeller has been spectacular as a freshman

HIT: Cody Zeller is Indiana’s program-changer

The expectations heaped on the broad shoulders of the youngest Zeller were enough to overwhelm even the most talented freshman. His much-publicized pledge was immediately viewed as Tom Crean’s major recruiting breakthrough and a significant step toward Indiana reclaiming old glory. Zeller has exceeded even the most optimistic projections, leading Indiana to two marquee wins over Kentucky and Ohio State and a yearlong spot in the national rankings. The Washington, Ind., native is averaging 15.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and hitting 64 percent of his shots while providing Crean a post presence to counterbalance Indiana’s outside shooters. Zeller’s instant impact has Indiana one year ahead of schedule in their treacherous post-Kelvin Sampson rebuild and, with a star-studded class entering Bloomington for 2012-13, even more national acclaim is in store should Zeller return for a sophomore season.

MISS: Xavier is a final four sleeper

Immediately after Tu Holloway opted for a final year at Xavier over the NBA Draft, the Musketeers were labeled a top-25 shoe-in and popular Final Four pick. After all, Chris Mack’s first two seasons as head coach produced an extraordinary 29-3 conference record and most key contributors were returning for a program that has experienced their fair share of March success in recent years. The story of Xavier’s season hasn’t exactly stayed on course. The Musketeers are 9-9 since that ugly brawl with Cincinnati, Holloway apparently doesn’t enjoy basketball anymore, suspensions and inconsistency have plagued Frease and the once-popular Musketeers may be NIT-bound following their loss Tuesday at UMass.

HIT: Tom Izzo has a team more to his liking

After discarding malcontents from a roster that slipped from number two in the nation to 19-15 overall last season, many prognosticators examined Sparty’s new-look roster and jumped back on the bandwagon. That faith has been rewarded in spades. Draymond Green is a Cleaves-type leader and a surefire All-American. Equally coachable and talented underclassmen Keith Appling and Brendan Dawson are stars in the making. Derrick Nix is finally in shape and Adreian Payne outplayed Jared Sullinger during the team’s statement win over Ohio State. Izzo’s squad is clearly embracing his philosophy of rugged defense, well-executed set plays and an unwavering effort on the boards, ranking second in the nation in defensive efficiency and third in rebound margin. This is a confident team climbing the polls and zeroing in on a Big Ten title and number one seed.

MISS: Andre Drummond is the missing piece to another Connecticut Final Four run

I was covering a high school football game in late August when Andre Drummond stunned the college hoops world and shunned another year of prep school to walk on with the defending national champs. I’ll never forget re-doing my preseason top five on the spot: North Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut, Ohio State and Syracuse in order. Despite the departure of Kemba Walker, lottery picks Drummond and Jeremy Lamb paired with emerging talents Alex Oriakhi and Shabazz Napier appeared sufficient enough to warrant a spot in the top five. What we neglected to remember was that Drummond was a raw, unseasoned, 18-year old center with no low post moves. It was a considerable step up to the Big East after simply overwhelming all opposition at the high school level. His lackluster 9.9 points per game, 32 percent free throw shooting and on-court chemistry issues with Oriakhi can attest to that. Drummond is still a future lottery pick and defensive menace, but his arrival hasn’t vaulted Connecticut to nearly the heights anticipated on that late summer day he opted to join the Huskies.

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1. It looks like we will not be seeing Jim Calhoun when Connecticut plays Syracuse on Saturday as he has opted to undergo an undisclosed surgical procedure on Monday, which means that he will at least be out until after the team’s game the following day. Calhoun, who has been out since February 3, consulted a number of specialists getting opinions from many of the most well-known institutions before deciding to go with surgical management rather than more conservative medical management. We are not sure what procedure Calhoun is undergoing, but it does not appear to be a promising sign for his return that medical management did not appear to be working and that he waited almost three weeks to decide on having the surgical procedure.
2. Luke Winn stepped outside of his usual statistical analysis to continue the tradition started by SI colleague Grant Wahl, who left to cover soccer, and bequeathed the infamous Magic 8 to Winn (see our analysis of Wahl’s earlier work). In this year’s edition, Winn lists five teams that you would expect, but also three teams that most would consider solid Sweet Sixteen teams, but are not usually included in discussion of potential national champions. Winn also discusses a few teams that were omitted that might raise some eyebrows. Unlike his predecessor’s column, Winn appears to be more realistic with his approach although he admits to coming up short last season.
3. Yesterday, a judge ruled that the Jim Boeheim slander trial will be held in Syracuse, which is a blow to the prosecution that claimed that his celebrity status in the area would hinder their case against him and Syracuse. As you probably remember the case stems from comments made by Boeheim made that Bernie Fine‘s accusers were essentially after money and there was no validity to their allegations that came soon after the Penn State scandal. In their request to move the case to New York City, the lawyers for the plaintiffs argued that not only would Boeheim’s status in and around Syracuse hurt their case (because people in the area were “obsessed” with basketball), but also because many potential witnesses live near New York City making it more convenient for them. None of those named in the lawsuit were present in court and neither Boeheim nor Syracuse issued a statement as of last night, but the lawyers for the accusers appear to be satisfied with the decision and do not plan to appeal.
4. With the NCAA Tournament around the corner, one group of individuals that will be getting quite a bit of attention is the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee. Yesterday, the NCAA announced that it had selected two individuals to join that group for the next five years. Bernard Muir and Mike Hollis will begin their terms on September 1, 2012 and will replace Jeff Hathaway, who has been a somewhat controversial figure, and Jeff Hickey. While both Muir and Hollis are well-respected within the field neither of them are well-known to the public, which is probably a sign that they do a good job. We hope that they can work to continue to improve the sport and address some of the major issues facing the sport going forward.
5. In this week’s mailbag, Seth Davis addresses criticism of coaches, cheating in recruiting in big cities, and readers taking issue with his RPI column. We will leave the last two alone and let you just read his comments because (1) we do not have much direct knowledge of recruiting and (2) we are getting sick of the RPI debate. The first point is a little more interesting to us. While we do agree with Seth’s take that fans are often too quick to “condemn coaches”, we also think that they are too quick to praise them for their success. Seth writes “Success and failure is about much, much more than the man on the sidelines” and appears to only use it to defend coaches, but outside of the extremes you can argue that much of what you see in a team’s record is due to its talent on the court not off of it. Now college sports may be more affected by the coach than professional sports due to the transient nature of the on-court talent and the coaches direct impact on recruiting that talent there, but if we are going to try to give coaches a pass when they fail to live up to expectations we should also temper our praise when they exceed those expectations.

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

The Indiana Hoosiers have been praised throughout this season for having one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the country. But as IU has begun to sputter of late, a different team in Indiana is proving to be similarly efficient with a variety of offensive options. By thumping West Virginia on Wednesday night, 71-44, Notre Dame has now won nine straight games after yet another versatile offensive attack that was too much for the Mountaineers to handle. Mike Brey’s boys in South Bend remain tied for second in the Big East and are a dangerous matchup thanks to all the different options they can throw at opponents.

The Fighting Irish are Clicking Through Collective Offensive Play (AP Photo/J. Raymond)

The Fighting Irish began this season with much riding on their fifth-year senior star Tim Abromaitis, who was expected to make a run at Big East Player of the Year. But when the forward suffered a season-ending ACL injury on November 25, the entire dynamic of the team changed. It took plenty of bruises — the Irish were just 8-5 in the non-conference — but this team has figured out how to play as a group without Abromaitis. While only six players on the team average 20 minutes or more per game now, each one is capable of being the star on any given night. In fact, during the current nine-game winning streak, five different players have led the team in scoring. Coming into tonight, guards Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant and forward Jack Cooley were all averaging between 12 and 13 points per game on the year, while emerging swingman Pat Connaughton was averaging 12.6 per contest in his last five games. The other starter, forward Scott Martin, also averages 9.1 PPG in Big East play, giving the Irish a full lineup of capable scorers.

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