Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: UAB, Washington State, Richmond, Penn State.
• Last Four Out: Maryland, Gonzaga, Butler, Colorado State.

Analysis:

• With the upheaval at the top of the rankings, there was as much competition for the #1 seeds this week as in any of the previous brackets. After Ohio State as the standout overall #1 seed, Pittsburgh, Kansas and Texas slid into the final three spots. Connecticut likely would have earned the spot occupied by Texas if they had closed out Louisville at home on Saturday. Although the Huskies edged the Longhorns in Austin, the overall portfolio leans ever so slightly towards Texas. As always, this is a fluid situation and could change tonight should Texas fall in College Station.
• BYU also would have been in prime contention to snag a #1 seed if they hadn’t slipped up at the Pit against New Mexico on Saturday. The Cougars boasted the top RPI in the land prior to the loss (Kansas re-claimed that esteemed spot). BYU now joins fellow Mountain West member San Diego State on the #2 seed line along with Connecticut and Duke, who drops to the final #2 seed and #8 overall.
• This past weekend was a major step forward for the Big East in their quest for obliterating the record for NCAA teams in one conference with Marquette edging Syracuse and St. John’s trouncing of Duke. All 11 contenders remained in the field this week and the lowest was Cincinnati as a #10 seed. The Bearcats look like the most vulnerable team in the conference to miss on an NCAA bid with both Marquette (Notre Dame, Syracuse, a plethora of close losses to NCAA teams) and St. John’s (Duke, Notre Dame, Georgetown, at West Virginia) having compiled some exemplary wins. Cincinnati still plays Louisville, Connecticut and Georgetown on their home floor.
• Bid stealer alert! Alabama at 5-1 in the SEC automatically gains that conference’s automatic bid with both Florida and Kentucky having suffered two defeats in conference play. This bumps Maryland just barely out of the bracket.
• Where have you gone Cinderella? The most famous of the last decade’s tournament darlings — Gonzaga and Butler –– both find themselves out of the field this week. The Zags have lost three of four in WCC play including road defeats at San Francisco and Santa Clara, while Butler has now fallen four times in Horizon play after running the table a season ago. Downing St. Mary’s in Moraga or Memphis in February would go a long way for Gonzaga and their ugly #90 RPI. Butler may have to win the Horizon League tournament which could be played in Valparaiso or Cleveland.
• I’d like to formally welcome Penn State to the field! Home wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois carried the Nittany Lions into the bracket for the first time. Close losses at Ohio State and at Purdue also won’t be ignored by the committee. While objectivity always comes first in Bracketology, I’d personally love to see Talor Battle in an NCAA Tournament game.

Conference Call

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Four In: Butler, Colorado State, Oklahoma State, UCLA.

Last Four Out: Dayton, Colorado, Wichita State, UAB.

Next Four Out: Washington State, George Mason, UCF, Kansas State.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Four In: Washington State, Butler, Kansas State, Colorado

Last Four Out: Miami (FL), UCLA, Virginia Tech, Wichita State

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Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.

Bids per conference (auto bid listed first):

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Zach Hayes is a contributor, editor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.

Analysis of decision: When the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee opted in April to expand the premier postseason tournament in America to 68 teams rather than the widely expected 96, college basketball fans exhaled and rejoiced. Then the question became what to do with the four play-in games that were instituted as part of this decision. An answer was promised sometime this summer. Today, committee chairman Dan Guerrero unveiled a “hybrid” resolution that first began to pick up serious momentum earlier this month.

The new hybrid format requires the final four at-large teams to play for a seed line to be determined on Selection Sunday and requires the final four automatic qualifiers (the four schools with the lowest RPI’s) to face an identical task likely with #1 seeds facing them should they advance. The committee attempted successfully to compromise the wishes of both smaller schools from conferences such as the SWAC, MEAC and Southland that would have been relegated to the stigmatic play-in games every single year and the final at-large schools that would have put up a fuss should under-.500 Jackson State go dancing rather than their team.

While I would have preferred forcing the final eight at-large teams into the Tuesday/Wednesday games for two nights of scintillating matchups to get fans geared up for the 64-team Big Dance, this compromise should sit well with the majority of hoops fans. Maybe it’s hard for me to get real hot and bothered about anything after the committee only went to 68 teams—after all, beggars can’t be choosers—but this decision does hit the right balance: two games similar to the Tuesday play-in game from years past between small schools and two games between bigger name schools that should generate interest and intrigue. Also, for the first time, we’ll finally know the Last Four In that  have never been previously officially revealed.

I constructed a summer bracket looking at the landscape of the 2010-11 season, but for some context on how a format like this one would have looked last March, one can guess the final two at-large teams left out of the field were Illinois and Mississippi State. These two teams move into the field at whatever spot the committee decides, likely as #12 or #13 seeds. That sets up the possibility of the two at-large games being something like Virginia Tech vs. Rhode Island and Arizona State vs. Seton Hall while the two automatic qualifier games would go to the #16 seeds each as undercards on either Tuesday or Wednesday- Lehigh vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff and Winthrop vs. East Tennessee State.

There have been a  few changes since my post-2010 season bracket a couple of months ago (eligible transfers, recruits changing allegiances, perception changes for certain teams) and a slight tweaking was in order. Here is my official summer Bracketology under the new format:

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.

Here we go, folks: the first test run of the new 68-team bracket.

While we won’t know of the NCAA’s plans regarding teams #61-#68 until later in the summer, let’s compile this bracket under the assumption that, in order for the NCAA to garner interest in the Tuesday play-in fest, the final eight at-large berths will earn the honor of playing for the #12 seed lines. As far as most college basketball fans are concerned, this is the preferred route compared to the other alternative of having the weakest automatic bids battle it out to get creamed by Duke.

In this edition I opted to keep it simple and have the eight teams battle it out under the same seed. I could see the NCAA hierarchy, should they opt for this route, giving the committee next March more leeway in terms of where to place the play-in games. For example, I felt that Murray State would have been the ideal #12 seed in this bracket, but due to the #12 seeds being filled up by the final at-large berths, they had to be bumped up from a #13 seed directly to a #11 seed. I could envision the committee placing some play-in games on any of the 11, 12 or 13-seed lines depending on the strength of the automatic bids.

I also made some assumptions regarding early entries. I made the bracket assuming E’Twaun Moore (Purdue), JaJuan Johnson (Purdue), Gordon Hayward (Butler), Jimmer Fredette (BYU), Darington Hobson (New Mexico), Malcolm Delaney (Virginia Tech), Lavoy Allen (Temple), Tracy Smith (NC State), Dee Bost (Mississippi State) and Ravern Johnson (Mississippi State) are all coming back to school. I also assumed Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky), Daniel Orton (Kentucky) and Terrico White (Ole Miss) are all headed to the NBA.

Without further ado, here’s some bracket goodness in the beginning of a long offseason…

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.

Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (6), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).

From today until Selection Sunday, keep checking Rush the Court for updates on who’s in, who’s out and seeding.

UPDATES ALL DAY TODAY. FINAL BRACKET REVEALED JUST BEFORE 6 PM ET.

(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).

Also: play the NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday challenge at NCAA.com to be your own Bracketologist.

Italics indicates conference leaders/champions.

Last update: 03/14, 3:50 PM ET.

#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia

#2 Seeds: Duke, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown

#3 Seeds: New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Purdue

#4 Seeds: Baylor, Wisconsin, Temple, Tennessee

#5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Michigan State, BYU

#6 Seeds: Maryland, Butler, Richmond, Xavier

#7 Seeds: Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Texas, UNLV

#8 Seeds: Notre Dame, Marquette, Clemson, Oklahoma State

#9 Seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Missouri

#10 Seeds: UTEP, Old Dominion, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State

#11 Seeds: Wake Forest, Washington, California, Siena

#12 Seeds: Utah State, Minnesota, Cornell, Illinois

#13 Seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Houston

#14 Seeds: Wofford, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Montana

#15 Seeds: Morgan State, UC-Santa Barbara, North Texas, Vermont

#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months days.

First, a note: Remember to play Selection Sunday Challenge over at NCAA.com to be your own Bracketologist on Selection Sunday. You can even create a group, go up against your college hoops buddies and fill out exactly how you think the bracket will shake out. I’ve been lucky enough to represent Rush the Court in an Experts league this year. The best part: it’s completely free.

Some changes to look out for today: Vanderbilt and Tennessee both have the opportunity to pass Baylor and possibly Villanova if they win their semifinal SEC Tournament games today. Vanderbilt takes on bubble squad Mississippi State and Tennessee looks to make it two out of three against Kentucky. While the Vandy win wouldn’t be tremendous, it would move them closer to Baylor. Tennessee would be a lock for a #3 seed if they downed Kentucky twice and Kansas once along with a solid resume overall.

West Virginia is inching closer and closer to Duke for the final #1 seed. Regardless of what Duke does in the ACC Tournament, the Mountaineers may have enough to pass Duke if they take the Big East crown. Here’s the comparison:

Duke: 27-5 (14-3), 2 RPI, 9 SOS, 41 non-conf SOS, 1-3 vs. RPI 1-25, 6-1 vs. RPI 26-50, 8-1 vs. RPI 51-100

West Virginia: 26-6 (15-5), 4 RPI, 4 SOS, 23 non-conf SOS, 4-4 vs. RPI 1-25, 3-1 vs. RPI 26-50, 9-1 vs. RPI 51-100

I have a hard time seeing Ohio State or Kansas State passing Duke, but I can always re-evaluate on Sunday afternoon.

Conversely, if Georgetown should win the title on Saturday, they have a chance at garnering a #3 seed on Selection Sunday, moving up three seed lines during the Big East Tournament alone.

The Pac-10 final between lock California and bubble-in Washington in all likelihood eliminates another potential bid stealer. Houston takes on lock UTEP in the Conference USA final looking to take a spot away from our last team in, Seton Hall. Rhode Island downing Temple would likely vault them into the field much like San Diego State’s win over New Mexico on Friday. Illinois moves into lock status by beating Ohio State today and Minnesota will be right there if they can topple Purdue. Mississippi State can move into Last Four Out status by beating Vanderbilt, but I feel as though their resume is less impressive than others.

On The Bubble: San Diego State, Virginia Tech

Last Four In: Illinois, Washington, Florida, Seton Hall

Last Four Out: Mississippi, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Memphis

Still Alive: Mississippi State, Arizona State

Bids per conference: Big East (9), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2).

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months days.

Does anyone want an NCAA seed? Just in the last two days, Memphis lost to Houston, UAB lost to Southern Mississippi, Seton Hall lost to Notre Dame and Arizona State lost to Stanford with tournament berths on the line. These losses have opened up a spot for Mississippi to sneak into the field despite an underwhelming profile. If the Rebels can top Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals Friday, they should be dancing. The way bubble teams have been performing thus far, I wouldn’t count on it.

The only higher seed to advance in the Big East Tournament on Thursday was West Virginia courtesy of Da’Sean Butler’s bank three-pointer at the buzzer. If the Mountaineers can win the tournament, they have a fighting chance to surpass Duke as the final #1 seed. Even with Syracuse losing two in a row, they’re still safe. West Virginia can pick up two RPI top-50 wins and take the BET crown, which would put them neck-in-neck with Duke depending on their results in Greensboro.

There are currently 13 teams remaining on the bubble and some have a chance to clinch their bids Friday. Georgia Tech beating Maryland would lock up a spot. San Diego State beating New Mexico would put them very close to a lock. Florida beating Mississippi State wouldn’t put them in 100%, but it would eliminate the Bulldogs from contention. Washington downing Stanford to reach the Pac-10 Finals would increase their likelihood of earning a bid tremendously. Aforementioned Ole Miss also needs their game today to avoid elimination. Illinois is in with a win over Wisconsin. Dayton (Xavier) and Rhode Island (St. Louis) are playing elimination games, too.

I’ll have a new bracket up Saturday and Sunday morning, then a final bracket just before the Selection Show. Stay tuned to RTC for constant seed updates all day this weekend.

On The Bubble: Georgia Tech, Florida

Last Four In: Mississippi, Washington, Illinois, San Diego State

Last Four Out: Seton Hall, Memphis, Rhode Island, Arizona State

Still Alive: Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota

Bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2).