College Basketball’s First Semester Report Card
Posted by zhayes9 on December 16th, 2011Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. You can follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.
Exam week. The worst period of the college basketball season is nearly behind us.
For players, competitive games are replaced by study sessions and extra practices. For fans, all of the momentum the sport gained from November tournaments and premiere non-conference games disappears. With the handful of intriguing bowl games still weeks away and no NBA to keep us semi-occupied, there’s an undeniable void in the sports schedule. After all, Tebow-mania can only hold our attention for so long.
In honor of exam week, let’s play professor and pass out our own evaluations of what we’ve seen so far this season. Who’s exceeded expectations and passed every test on their schedule? Who’s underachieved and deserves a failing grade? Let’s reveal:
A+: Syracuse- Honestly, no team truly deserves a perfect grade. The only argument could have been Ohio State had they won in Lawrence without Jared Sullinger. Despite two near slip-ups in New York, Syracuse is the class of the undefeated. They’re the deepest team in America, bolstered by a dynamic sixth man in Dion Waiters and the rapid improvement of Fab Melo. The length and aggression of their patented 2-3 zone is confounding the opposition, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, first in steal percentage and fourth in block percentage. As long as Kris Joseph displays the killer instinct he showed in the tail end of their Stanford victory and Scoop Jardine values possessions, the Orange are Big East favorites.
Marcus Denmon has played a major role in Mizzou's fast start
A: Missouri- Just two months ago, skepticism was a common theme among the Tiger faithful with the controversial hiring of Frank Haith and Laurence Bowers’ devastating ACL tear. Now they’re enjoying a potential Final Four outfit running roughshod over everyone on their schedule, the most memorable being a 39-point drubbing of expected Pac-12 title contender California. Haith has established a mentality of controlled chaos, preaching the same up-tempo pace encouraged by Mike Anderson without neglecting the half-court prowess of point guard Phil Pressey and the catch-and-shoot proficiency of guards Marcus Denmon and Kim English. The result is a well-oiled machine ranking in the top-15 in two-point, three-point and free throw percentage. The next task: winning a true road game outside of Columbia.
A-: San Diego State- The coaching job by Aztecs coach Steve Fisher has been nothing short of admirable this season. After his program lost three tremendously productive seniors and one lottery pick, a rebuilding period was to be rightfully expected. This isn’t Duke or North Carolina where the loss of program icons are quickly replaced by the latest batch of blue chip prospects. Instead of reverting back to mediocrity, SDSU already has two wins over preseason top-25 Arizona and California and nearly downed MVC favorite Creighton. A major reason has been the emergence of junior guard Chase Tapley, who is averaging 17.7 PPG on a cool 50% from the floor and 51% from deep.
B+: North Carolina- The Tar Heels are still really, really good. They rank fourth in the country in overall efficiency and trot out a powerful offensive attack full of future pros capable of dropping 90+ on any given night. Nothing we’ve seen the season should change the perception that this team could win Roy Williams’ third national title. Still, they were handled by UNLV playing at their up-and-down pace, Wisconsin exerted their will in Chapel Hill and an equally talented Kentucky team out-played Carolina in the second half. Toughness and rebounding questions have emerged at various points and Kendall Marshall, for all of his gifted passing ability, is often overmatched at the other end by quick point guards. There are chinks in the armor.
B: Illinois- While Bruce Weber’s squad enters this Saturday’s intriguing affair with UNLV unblemished, they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents and the Illini still have their bitter hoops rivalry with Missouri to settle before beginning Big 10 play. Regardless, the Illini faithful have to be thrilled with the development of center Meyers Leonard into a confident scorer and elite defensive rebounder, while Brandon Paul can break you down from the perimeter and D.J. Richardson is an elite defender on the wing. Ridding their program of the Jereme Richmond headache and the enigmatic play of Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale has the feel of addition by subtraction.
B-: Florida- Nothing in either the Ohio State or Syracuse loss changed my view that the Gators could be playing into April. After all, those are true road losses to the current top two teams in the country by a combined 11 points. Much more concerning was their recent overtime win over Arizona where, despite Patric Young enjoying the game of his young life in the paint, stubborn guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton insisted on testing Sean Miller’s suffocating three-point defense time and time again, nearly bricking the Gators to defeat. The Florida backcourt mates, along with super-sub Mike Rosario, are shooting the ball well from three in the early going, but the Gators must run their sets around Young. Feeding the post not only allows Young to further develop a burgeoning offensive game, but prevents defenses from clinging to the perimeter, eventually allowing more open looks for the guard tandem.
C+: Alabama- Just two weeks ago, Alabama would have finished the semester two letter grades higher, but a home loss to Georgetown and a road thumping by Dayton relegated the Tide to C-status. The halfcourt defense remains top-notch, ranking in the top-20 in both two-point and three-point defense. But the scoring is still too erratic for the Tide to be considered in the same class as Kentucky, Florida and possibly Mississippi State. Their major flaw last season was outside shooting and most hoped incoming freshmen guards Levi Randolph and Trevor Lacey would cure those ills. Instead, the two have combined for a meager 12 of 55 from deep. Wins over Purdue and Wichita State should have shelf life, though, and I still anticipate Alabama garnering a top-6 seed come March.
C: Vanderbilt- Not much has changed for Vanderbilt. They can be outstanding offensively if Jeff Taylor is aggressive and John Jenkins has his stroke from deep, but defensively (84th in efficiency), in the trenches (allowing 51% from inside the arc) and late in games (blown leads to Xavier and Louisville), the flaws remain the same. The return of center Festus Ezeli to full strength should undoubtedly aid the cause on the first two fronts, but toughness questions will always linger until Vandy starts executing and getting stops late in games against high-quality opponents. Their next two opportunities: December 29 at Marquette and January 19 at Alabama.
C-: Arizona- The individual parts appear competent enough to win a really weak Pac-12. I’m just not sure who this team can rely on for a basket with the shot clock dwindling during a late-game possession. Jesse Perry has probably been their most reliable player from day one and Kyle Fogg is a really smooth scorer, but neither is particularly suited for a starring role. The good news: other than maybe Washington, the Wildcats have the highest ceiling of any team in their conference. They badly need Josiah Turner to keep his head on straight so Nick Johnson can move back off the ball.
D+: Villanova- This seems like the proper team to facetiously point out that Villanova won’t have to deal with their annual late-season collapse because they’re not any good in the first place. Jay Wright’s squad just screams bubble, especially considering they’ve already squandered their three chances for a resume-building win against Saint Louis, Missouri and Temple with a bad loss to Santa Clara tossed in. Other than Maalik Wayns, who has been fantastic with a sky-high assist rate and 54% shooting inside the arc, and Mouph Yarou in spurts, the cupboard is relatively bare, especially because Dominic Cheek is so one-dimensional. I wouldn’t rule out improvement along the way, but at the moment Villanova is sandwiched between West Virginia and Cincinnati in the soft middle of the Big East.
D: Memphis- The efficiency metrics view Memphis as a top-30 team and the collective youth on their roster suggests plenty of room to grow. As for actual consistent on-court results, we’re still waiting patiently. This group of Tigers has one banner non-conference win to their credit over the last two seasons (a February triumph over Gonzaga) and they barely skated by Tennessee for their lone win in Maui. For every Will Barton emerging as a superstar, there’s a Tarik Black who can’t stay on the floor. For every Joe Jackson cutting down on his turnovers, there’s a Wesley Witherspoon who can’t seem to figure it out. After a convincing road win at Miami, there’s a letdown against Murray State. Tomorrow’s game against Louisville is yet another opportunity for this group to make their mark.
D-: Cincinnati- The most promising season for Cincinnati basketball since Bob Huggins unceremoniously departed has quickly turned sour. The loss to Presbyterian sent shockwaves, but it was the thumping from cross-town rival Xavier and the subsequent brawl/Yancy Gates haymaker that drove an already disappointing season to unforeseen depths. Depth was already an issue; Mick Cronin is getting close to zero production from his bench. The Bearcats also really struggle to score, ranking 209th in two-point percentage and Ole Miss is the only power six conference team that shoots worse from the charity stripe. Cronin also received a much-deserved heaping of criticism for failing to back up his tough press conference talk with adequate suspensions. The dark cloud over this season could only grow more ominous with losses to Oklahoma and Pittsburgh while Gates sits out.
F: UCLA- The Bruins have plummeted from preseason Pac-12 title pick to college basketball’s punch line with the embarrassing Reeves Nelson debacle to their 3-5 record against D-I opponents to their laughable guard play to Josh Smith’s inability to stay in shape. Ben Howland sits firmly on the hot seat and possibly the only thing saving his job is Kyle Anderson’s commitment. Their conference is far from intimidating, but this UCLA train is so far off the tracks, I’d be shocked if this season is salvaged.
I’d give Missouri the A+ and Syracuse the A. The Orange were expected to be in the top tier all year but Missouri was not. The Tigers have destroyed everybody in their path. They’ve had a phenomenal start.
I’m concerned about San Diego State offensively. The schedule is light for the next month so they have plenty of time to work on it. Relative to expectations your grade is right on.
I really want to see what Illinois does against UNLV and Missouri before I buy in. The only team of note they’ve beat is Gonzaga, a team struggling a bit of late. I think the Illini will take a step back in the next month or so.
I agree on the rest of the teams listed but Villanova will be lucky to be on the bubble. This is an NIT team at best. They pretty much have to beat St. Joe’s tomorrow and go 10-8 in the Big East in order to have a chance at a bid. I don’t see that happening.
Agree on the Illini and their next 2 big games, will be watching intently. Not totally buying in yet. One guy I didn’t mention who’s been big for them is Maniscalco. Really tough, hard-nosed, intelligent senior point guards are invaluable. He’s been a welcomed leader.
No doubt about it. He adds a toughness that wasn’t there in the Tisdale/Davis/McCamey era. Maniscalco is a prime example of how the “rent-a-player” graduate transfer rule can help a team in a big way for one season.
Good article.
The Tar Heels are either the biggest underachievers in CBB or way overrated. They are not final 4 material and deserve no more than a C+.
Arizona’s preseason expectations were totally out of whack with their talent and weighted too much on freshmen. They were thumped by Div 2, Seattle Pacific!
UCLA’s season is a train wreck. They’ve earned an F-.
Collectively, the PAC 12 deserves an F.
You mean outside of Columbia for Missouri. Ames is in Iowa.