When conference play began, Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils weren’t expected to do much. They were 8-5 with an unimpressive schedule that yielded a home loss to Lehigh. Sure, the rest of their losses were excusable instances against quality teams or on the road; but we still had little reason to imagine that Arizona State would amount to much. Then three of their first four conference games were on the road and – in slicing three of four another way – those games were against three top-10 defenses. Arizona State, on January 15, was sub-.500 and we could seemingly give up on them. The basketball was ugly enough that you might jarringly display it from behind a curtain during a free throw.

Arizona State Basketball: What The Hell Is Going On Here?

I suppose this is as good a time as any to talk a little bit about Herb Sendek’s program. Maybe it’s because I’m a defender of jobs and don’t enjoy the hot seat debate. The irresponsible wielding of the sword threat bugs me. Of course by noting my affinity for positive coach speak, I’m backhandedly noting that Herb could be on the hot seat. Whoops. What has Herb done in Tempe? Well he’s attended two NCAA tournaments which matches the program’s success of the previous twenty years. He’s won twenty games on five occasions (of eight seasons). Is success relative? I think so. For example: Two NCAA tournaments in eight seasons at UCLA? Should we even bother to answer this question? Or should I just pose it to Gene Bartow? Gary Cunningham? My Socratic methoding seems to suffice. But the perhaps curse of Sendek has been his swift success. He plucked James Harden out of the Los Angeles grips of Ben Howland and within three seasons in Tempe, Herb was finishing third in a six-bid league (read: tough Pac-10). Fairly or otherwise, it seems to me that expectations were set. And then they won just 20 games (ten per season) the next two years. Disappointment set in but expectations were not adjusted. After the Harden years, it would be five seasons before the Devils could have their dancing hearts ripped out again.

Read the rest of this entry »

Valparaiso’s victory over Green Bay last Friday was big, no matter how you slice it. The Crusaders held home court, avoided being swept by the Phoenix, and maintained their full game lead on both Green Bay and Cleveland State with less than two weeks remaining in the season. Still – with the top overall seed and both double-byes in next month’s league tournament yet to be determined – the result was far from a coronation. Let’s examine the key matchups, possible tournament scenarios and general outlook heading down the stretch.

The Top Four

Alec Peters and Valparaiso are in the Horizon League driver’s seat. (Valparaiso Athletics)

• Valparaiso – 24-2 (11-2). It’s quite simple for Valparaiso: win out and the championship is yours. Of course, with a pair of difficult road games left – including Cleveland State to end the season – that might be easier said than done (the Crusaders barely snuck by the Vikings back in January), but Bryce Drew’s group has been remarkably consistent in 2014-15 and sophomore forward Alec Peters (17 PPG, 6.6 RPG) might be the league’s most dynamic player, aside from Keifer Sykes.
• Cleveland State – 16-11 (10-3). After starting the year 6-8, Cleveland State got its act together in conference play and now has a legitimate chance to claim a share of the title. It won’t be easy – a road trip to Green Bay and Milwaukee beckons, before closing the season against Valparaiso – but if the Vikings can knock off the Phoenix tonight, they will own a sweep over the reigning champs and be in excellent position to emerge with a top-two seed in March.
• Green Bay – 21-6 (10-3). Green Bay can avenge two of its three league losses by beating Cleveland State at home tonight and taking down Oakland on February 28th.  KenPom gives the Phoenix about a 53 percent chance of winning their final three, but if Wednesday night’s drubbing of Detroit is any indication, those odds might actually be better: Greg Mays dropped 34 points, Keifer Sykes (nursing a thumb injury) flirted with a triple-double and the preseason favorites won by 20.
• Oakland – 14-14 (9-4). The Grizzlies will be hard-pressed to finish first or second, but they did lock up a top-four seed by beating Wright State on Wednesday. That guarantees a bye in the Horizon League tournament, which is pretty good for a team picked seventh in the preseason.

What’s At Stake

Seeding matters immensely in the Horizon League, considering the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals, the top two head straight to the semifinals, and the top overall seed hosts both the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds. Likewise, the highest remaining seed hosts the conference championship game. As it stands, those top four slots are locked up – Valparaiso, Cleveland State, Green Bay, and Oakland – but the double-byes and tournament host have yet to be determined.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is the latest edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 18.

Current Standings

With three weekends of conference play remaining, things are now mostly as they should be in the standings with respect to matching points per possession margin (PPM) with actual wins and losses. Virginia maintains a clear lead in both the standings and in PPM, and Duke can lay claim to being the second best team, with a clear PPM edge over Notre Dame. Last week we showed how the Irish have achieved their impressive 11-3 record by performing so well in close games, noting that Georgia Tech is the exact opposite reflection of Notre Dame in both PPM and actual record. It’s seems fitting then that those two teams have squared off twice already, and each game ended with a close Irish victory. Another interesting situation involves two teams fighting for NCAA Tournament consideration, N.C. State and Pittsburgh. Each school picked up a nice win over a ranked opponent last weekend but both the Wolfpack and the Panthers remain a game below .500 in the standings. That’s where the similarities end, though, as N.C. State has been the far better team in possession-based performance, with Pittsburgh’s defense surprisingly ranked as the league’s worst.

There are once again no match-ups involving two of the ACC’s five elite teams on the schedule this weekend. In the only game involving two teams with winning conference records, Louisville travels to Miami (Saturday @ 2:00 PM ET – ESPN) in a crucial game for the Hurricanes and their NCAA Tourney hopes. There are also a couple of games that feature an ACC heavyweight hosting a school that’s looking to get over the .500 mark, as Clemson visits Duke (Saturday @ 4:00 PM ET – ESPN), and Virginia entertains Florida State (Sunday @ 6:30 PM ET – ESPNU). In another important contest, Pittsburgh needs to win at Syracuse (Saturday @ Noon ET – ACCN) to keep any hope alive of making the Dance.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Kansas coach Bill Self revealed on Thursday that big man Cliff Alexander has been banged up, but that nagging back and chest problems shouldn’t keep him from playing at a high level as the Jayhawks enter the home stretch. While Alexander has started the last few games, Self has felt more comfortable with the more experienced Landen Lucas for most of the game and the redshirt freshman affirmed his coach’s faith with solid production against Baylor and West Virginia. How Self manages his frontcourt rotation is likely to continue to be newsworthy tomorrow when the Jayhawks square off against TCU.
2. Burnt Orange Nation has a thorough preview of the best match-up of the weekend, which pits Texas against visiting Iowa State. The Cyclones, known for converting most every close shot they get, will face a Texas frontcourt that has improved since struggling in December and January. Despite a disappointing campaign to this point, there isn’t much reason to fret over the Longhorns’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament quite yet, but a loss would spark a heightened level of debate, so a win would definitely keep their heads above water.
3. Meanwhile, the Cyclones, who had struggled on the road before beating Oklahoma State earlier in the week, will try to keep the good vibes going. With five games remaining to make up one game on conference-leading Kansas, history is still in Iowa State’s sights. They will need some help, but any help they get will be moot if they don’t take care of business themselves. As for Iowa State’s gameplan, the Longhorns have the ninth-best transition defense in the country according to hoop-math.com, so if Fred Hoiberg’s team is going to pull off another upset, it will probably have to be on the efficiency of its half-court offense.
4. Thursday afternoon saw craziness ensue during the NBA trade deadline, and there were a couple interesting developments for former Big 12 standouts. The headline-grabber is a mini-reunion of the memorable 2006-07 Texas Longhorns with D.J. Augustin and Kevin Durant once again joining forces as Augustin was dealt from the Pistons to Durant’s Thunder. On a less pleasant note, former Jayhawk Thomas Robinson, who has struggled to find a permanent home at the next level, is on the move again after he was dealt from the Trail Blazers to the Nuggets. Robinson has already reportedly agreed to a buyout with Denver, though, so it looks like he’ll be on the move again as he searches for a role more befitting of a former #5 overall draft pick.
5. Lastly, it’s been a very up-and-down month for Oklahoma State, which rode a wave of stellar victories before running into bumps in the road against TCU and Iowa State. Refusing to let the inconsistent play be a source of frustration, the Cowboy blog Pistols Firing brought some levity to the situation with some good old-fashioned satire at the expense of the team’s coaching staff. The post re-imagines coach Travis Ford as a “Breakfast Club”-type principal with assistant coach James Dickey playing the good cop role. It’s definitely worth a read.

1. After a miserable 0-5 start in the Big Ten, Minnesota was always a long shot to make a run at an at-large bid. Despite the terrible start, Richard Pitino’s team managed to fight back and win five of its next seven games. But the Golden Gophers’ postseason dreams effectively came to an end on Wednesday night when they suffered their worst lost of the season to Northwestern at home. For the second straight game, Minnesota let a team get hot from the perimeter as the Wildcats hit 15 three-pointers in the game. Now, at 5-9 in the conference, the Gophers are likely headed for the NIT or worse. Pitino will need to figure out what went wrong during the offseason and fix it quick as he’ll enter year three in Minnesota with no NCAA Tournament appearances.
2. On Thursday, Purdue got its best win of the season when the Boilermakers topped its intrastate rival, Indiana, by four points in Bloomington. A.J. Hammons was tremendous in the game on both sides of the court, evidenced by his 20 points on 8-of-9 shooting and four blocks. Purdue’s guards were able to aggressively blanket Indiana’s shooters because of the rim protection Hammons provided all night. The result was that the usually deadly-from-deep Hoosiers were held to 31 percent from the three-point line and one of the best offenses in the country only managed 0.96 points per possession. While the Boilermakers are still on bubble, they finally have a signature win to counter some bad losses from earlier in the season.
3. With 14 teams and 18 games, unbalanced schedules are a part of life in the new and super-sized Big Ten. Because of this, and the fact that rivalries are not protected for basketball, we as fans miss out on some great home-and-home battles against historic foes. Matt Brown from SBNation makes the argument that the Big Ten should forego the rotating schedule and lock in key games each and every year. It would make sense from the Big Ten’s perspective too, as these games would bring in more impressive ratings and demand better TV slots. It’s tough to argue with the logic, but the greater expansion of leagues throughout the sport has made that just short of impossible in this framework.
4. Don’t let anyone tell you bad decisions aren’t contagious. After Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott trotted out the idea of reinstating freshmen ineligibility, the Big Ten followed suit saying it’s gauging the interests of its members about the possibility of implementing the rule once again. On Thursday, Maryland’s president, Wallace Loh, said “If they do well because they spend more time, get more academic advising … their freshman year, they’re going to graduate”. That’s quite a lot of hypocrisy to choke down from the president of a university who left their historic (and geographically sensible) conference for a more lucrative one in the Midwest. Next time Maryland flies 1,200 miles to Nebraska on a school night to play a 9:00 PM ET game, they should ask themselves if that may be negative factor for the student-athletes’ academics.
5. Finally, on Thursday ESPN released Joe Lunardi’s newest brackets, and seven Big Ten schools are projected to make the Big Dance. Wisconsin (#2 seed), Maryland (#5), Ohio State (#7), Indiana (#7), Michigan State (#8), Iowa (#10), and Illinois (#11). Purdue is missing from the field as of right now, but this projection does not include the Boilermakers’ big win at Indiana on Thursday night. By the next time Lunardi updates his brackets, there may be eight teams in the field, which would undoubtedly make this another successful season for the league.

1. We’re deep enough into the season that the debate over whether a loss would actually help Kentucky is starting to percolate. A Sea of Blue’s Keith Garrett makes the case that a loss wouldn’t do any good for the Wildcats, and I tend to agree. The sting of defeat can’t be replicated, but there must have been emotion in the Kentucky after nearly losing to Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU. If ever there was a non-conference run to trigger a feeling of invincibility, it was what Kentucky did this year in thrashing Kansas and UCLA, and controlling games against North Carolina and (for the most part) Louisville. But the Kentucky players saw Jarvis Summers nearly put a game-winner through the net, and that must have made them realize their mortality. But they won that game, and setting a precedent and mindset of winning despite poor play seems as important as any lesson that could be taken from a loss.
2. It’ll take a perfect game to beat Kentucky, and Tennessee experienced that firsthand on Tuesday. The Vols canceled out the rebounding battle and respectably held the Wildcats to 41.7 percent shooting from the field. But that wasn’t enough, and a big reason Tennessee still lost by 18 points was they went just two-for-17 from deep. Not to oversimplify it, but if a team does take down the Wildcats, the three-point line will probably be a big reason why. Ole Miss nearly pulled the upset in Rupp Arena in large part because the Rebels hit nine triples. But reaching this mark will be easier said than done. Some people don’t believe three-point defense is real, but the Wildcats’ length and general defensive prowess has to have something to do with the paltry 26.2 percent opponents have shot against them from distance this season.
3. Oof, Georgia – what happened? The Bulldogs had avoided the bad loss all season until last week, when home losses to Auburn and South Carolina dropped their RPI by 20 spots in just five days. They are going through an offensive slump at the worst time, shooting below 40 percent in both losses. Georgia’s injury troubles could be partly to blame. J.J. Frazier missed the South Carolina game and Juwan Parker hasn’t played since January 20. This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann, who both need to essentially play the entire game until either Frazier or Parker returns. Regardless, Georgia is in desperate need of a win in Tuscaloosa this weekend.
4. Florida is not having a good season. There’s no way to around it. But if you take a step back, strip away expectations and consider the Gators that took the floor Wednesday night against Vanderbilt for what they were – a young team playing out the string – you have to come away impressed. With Michael Frazier out with an injury and Dorian Finney-Smith suspended, Devin Robinson (12 points, 10 in the second half) led Florida to a win over the Commodores. Chris Chiozza (eight points, six rebounds) and Chris Walker (five blocks) were also instrumental. These are young players stepping up, and those experiences probably mean next year won’t be as disappointing.
5. Texas A&M’s key win against LSU came in large part because the Aggies doubled up the Tigers on the offensive glass (14 to seven). Second-chance points are important for any team, but especially so for one like the Aggies that plays slow and isn’t the most efficient on the offensive end. Danuel House (20 points against LSU) has emerged as a scoring star, but as defenses key in on him it’s nice that Kourtney Roberson (16 points, five offensive rebounds) is playing his best this late in the season. The Aggies are inching closer to their first NCAA Tournament bid under Billy Kennedy, and the win over LSU was pivotal.

1. It was not that long ago that we heard talk about Division 4 (basically all the schools from the biggest conferences) revolutionizing college sports by using their influence (read: money) to change the competitive landscape. Now it looks like they might be doing that, but in the process could be shooting themselves in the foot (or worse). We had already heard talk about some major conference considering the idea of making freshman ineligible to play sports, which would theoretically give them the chance to adjust to college life. It appears that the Big Ten may have taken the “lead” on this issue by proposing the initiation of discussions amongst its members to make freshmen ineligible to play football or men’s basketball. Outside of this making the conference less competitive (think many “one-and-dones” would come there?) it seems like an attempt to keep the revenue-producing athletes around the school for a longer period of time even if they are not necessarily playing any longer. The conference is apparently trying to use the low graduation rates as a justification for singling out the two sports, but making certain individuals ineligible just based on the sport they play (actually the gender they are too since this would not affect women’s basketball) seems suspect at best.
2. Thon Maker‘s announcement that he would be reclassifying to the class of 2015 is not exactly a surprise, but it will shake up the recruiting world for the next few months. Maker was considered by many to be the top prospect in the class of 2016 with his combination of size and skill and will probably end up in the top 5 to 10 for the class of 2015 when he is put into this year’s class rankings. While there is an air of mystery around Maker who is native of Sudan, but grew up in Australia and currently plays high school basketball in Ontario, Canada, his list of schools is probably going to remain the same–Kentucky and Kansas being the favorites with Missouri, Duke, Louisville, and Maryland not far behind–but there remains the possibility that he could take the Emmanuel Mudiay route taking a shoe contract and playing overseas or even staying at his current location for a postgraduate year and directly enter the NBA Draft in 2016.
3. It appears that Chris Jones managed to make up for whatever led to his indefinite suspension as the Louisville guard was reinstated after missing just one game. According to the school, Jones “has done what he needed to do” to have the indefinite suspension rescinded. More cynical individuals (like us) would point to the team’s ugly loss at Syracuse on Wednesday as having at least a small impact on Rick Pitino’s decision to bring Jones back on the team. With Jones returning, the Cardinals will have four players who can score (none regularly against a zone), which will help them when one of those players has an off-night (like Wayne Blackshear who came pretty close to pulling a 19-trillion if he hadn’t fouled out) assuming Jones can stay out of trouble.
4. #TeamBadLuck suffered another setback on Wednesday when they announced that Dorian Finney-Smith had been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Finney-Smith, who was averaging 12.9 points (2nd on the team) and 5.8 rebounds (leading the team) prior to his suspeneion. We have not heard what led to the suspension, but this is Finney-Smith’s second suspension while at Florida. Even though the Gators reversed their season-long trend by winning a close game on Wednesday night things are not looking good for their postseason hopes at this point.
5. With Kentucky closing in on an undefeated regular season, there is one person who played a significant role in making Kentucky the team it is today, but is largely forgotten: Billy Gillispie. Fox Sports has an oral history of the Billy Gillispie era in Lexington. As you would expect from an oral history (particularly with a person as unique as Gillispie) it has plenty of interesting anecdotes, but it also serves as a look at the bridge between the Tubby Smith era at Kentucky, which Big Blue Nation views much more favorably now, and the John Calipari era, which Big Blue Nation was much more nervous about at the time than they are willing to admit now.

On Sunday, Purdue defeated Nebraska in Mackey Arena to move its record to 17-9 overall and 9-4 in Big Ten play, which puts the Boilermakers in a tie for second place with Maryland and Michigan State. That’s something no one could have foreseen on December 31 when the Boilermakers entered league play at 8-5. If you take a closer look at the standings, you’ll see teams like Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois and Iowa trailing them. Yet, according to Bracketmatrix.com, all of these teams are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament while Purdue is one of first four teams out. How can this be? Simple, it’s because North Florida and Gardner-Webb, two teams that rank outside the RPI top 150, got the better of Matt Painter‘s team in non-conference play and have become glaring stains on their resume. And unfortunately for Purdue, these two losses threaten to tank what has been a great and much needed bounceback season for this program.

A.J. Hammons has led the Boilermakers to second place in the Big Ten, but they still find themselves outside the bubble.

After two consecutive years of subpar basketball, Purdue finds itself closing in on 20 wins and an upper-tier conference finish. From a bird’s-eye view, this is the kind of season Painter needed in order to stave off calls for his firing. But the NCAA Selection Committee has made it clear that games in December, when the Boilermakers went 4-4, are just as valuable to an NCAA Tournament resume as those in January and February. Against North Florida on December 6, Purdue was in control for the first 37 minutes of the game before its interior defense collapsed and allowed the Ospreys to go on a run of layups to earn their first ever win over a Big Ten school. Against Gardner-Webb, Purdue once again collapsed in the second half as the Bulldogs went 14-of-25 from the three-point line to steal a victory. Those bad losses are haunting Purdue in the worst way right now.

Read the rest of this entry »

To say that it’s been a down year for Kansas State would be a big understatement. The Wildcats, picked to finish fourth in the Big 12 by the conference’s coaches back in last fall’s Media Day, experienced an awful trip through non-league play with losses to the likes of Texas Southern and Long Beach State. Bruce Weber was hoping for a reset in league play, but it hasn’t come; if anything, things in Manhattan have only gotten worse. Last night’s loss at TCU dropped Kansas State to 6-8 in Big 12 play and 13-14 overall, making the Wildcats the only conference team other than Texas Tech to have a sub-.500 record. There were few signs of emotion or energy from the Wildcats in Fort Worth, as they allowed an early 19-0 Horned Frogs’ run and trailed by 20 points at halftime. Kansas State regrouped to make a brief second half run, but never got closer than six points the rest of the way and ultimately lost by 14. This problem isn’t just about wins and losses in a very competitive league, though.

In a disastrous season, Bruce Weber has struggled to get what he’s needed out of his team. (Raymond Thompson/AP)

Weber is struggling to keep his team focused and motivated. Star guard Marcus Foster has hit some game-winning shots, but he’s also been benched, suspended, benched again and, most recently, muzzled. After a 1-of-6 shooting performance in a reserve role last night, it doesn’t look like he and his head coach have come particularly close to mending their fences. Those issues have kept Kansas State from maximizing its potential, and there are varying levels of responsibility with both parties. No matter how you slice it, the best solution may be for the two to simply part ways, whether that involves Foster transferring or going pro. It isn’t just Foster who has struggled to find Weber’s good graces, though. Wesley Iwundu played 18 minutes on Wednesday, the least he has logged in any conference game this season. He hoisted 11 shots during those minutes, misfiring on all but two of his attempts. The Wildcats’ lethargy was on full display in Wednesday’s defeat, and Weber’s postgame comments revealed that his frustration with the team’s lack of consistent energy may have reached a tipping point.

Read the rest of this entry »

People have lots of differing opinions on all sorts of stuff. Usually, because they are them, their opinion is usually right while yours is most certainly wrong. Whether it is discussing important topics like global warming or more trivial things like an all-female cast of Ghostbusters, people have opinions and — well — you need to hear them out. Having fancy-schmancy opinions are fine. I mean that. I also mean that in the same way that having intimate relations with a bear is fine — as long as you know what you are getting yourself into, who am I to argue with what you want to do or say? Really, I am just a man who spews out opinions as well. It would be a bit hypocritical of me to tell you what you can or can’t think. Still, I wish people would think before they speak, type or whatever. Or, at the very least, look some stuff up before coming down hard on other people for things. Sure, we all get caught up in the gut reaction of seeing something live, and want something, whatever done about it, but maybe we should all be forced to take a little timeout and regroup before we start demanding things.

And. Here. We. Go.

———————-

Kansas’ Perry Ellis is only a junior. I should probably repeat that one more time so you fully understand what I am trying to say. Perry Ellis, the guy who missed a layup at the end of the game against West Virginia and has seemingly been on Bill Self’s roster since Nixon was in office, is only a junior. This baffles the ever-living poop out of the insides of my cranium. I honestly thought he was at least a senior. Maybe it was his hairline being deathly afraid of his eyebrows or the fact that I sincerely remember him posting up Danny Manning at a practice at one point, but not only is he still an unpaid laborer, but he still has another year left to do all sorts of basketball things for free. This must be a huge, huge advantage for Kansas. Forget whatever happened against West Virginia and Ellis losing track of how much time he had and forcing his layup attempt. Bill Self has something just gosh slam amazing at his disposal. Seriously, having the eleventy-billion year old Perry Ellis is all the positive adjectives. All of them — even gnarly!

Amazingly, Perry Ellis is Only a Junior at Kansas (USA Today Images)

Here is a quick list of things Kansas should be grateful for while having the AARP-subscribed Ellis on the roster:

Read the rest of this entry »