Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Wednesday afternoons for the rest of the season. 

What is a “Bubble Watch?” Below is my bubble watch. If you are not familiar with my work, this is basically a current look at how things are shaping up for the NCAA Tournament. Each conference is broken down and the teams I am currently considering on the bubble are listed. This makes it easy to figure out how many at-large berths are left for the NCAA Tournament. Remember, 31 automatic NCAA Tournament bids go to the conference tournament winners (and the Ivy champion). The other 37 bids are at-large bids, or bids that the selection committee gives to the best remaining teams that fail to win an automatic bid.

Bracket Math: Below there are 25 locks along the right column. That means if none of my “locks” wins an auto-bid, there are 12 at-large spots available for the NCAA Tournament. It is usually safe to say that an average of six of my locks will win automatic bids, so that means 19 at-large bids will be taken and I project that 18 at-large bids  remain available to the NCAA Tournament. For those wondering, if you take all the teams I have at 70% or higher (six) and include them in my projection there are 31 “locks” and “should be ins”.  At the very least, that leaves six at-large spots available for the NCAA Tournament. If you figure that at least six of my locks/should be ins win automatic bids, there are 12 spots available.

What Does Being a “Lock” Mean? It means that at this point, I see no way that team could miss the NCAA Tournament. Every year I end up having to move at least one team I have locked in back into the at-large pool.

Understanding “At-Large Odds” Percentages: In an attempt to help clarify the bubble picture even more, I have added “at-large odds” to each team below. All of the teams I have “locked” in have a 90% chance of playing in the NCAA Tournament or higher. Basically, teams with a percentage higher than 50% are probably on the good side of the bubble picture right now. Teams below 50% are probably on the wrong side of the bubble picture right now. Teams with a 50% chance of being in the Tournament basically have a coin-flip chance of getting in.  You might see me refer to teams with a percentage of 70% or higher as “should be ins,” referring to teams that should make the field.

• Odds Improving This Week: Georgetown (now a lock), North Carolina, Kansas State (now a lock), Minnesota (now a lock), Colorado State, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Air Force
• Odds Decreasing This Week: Florida State, Villanova, Temple, Arizona State, Colorado, Illinois

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF FEBRUARY 3, 2013

ACC: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

ACC Overview: Miami continues to lead the ACC after a late basket pushed the Hurricanes over N. C. State on Saturday. Duke played its best game without Ryan Kelly in its blowout victory against Florida State. Both of those teams are clear locks for the NCAA Tournament. N. C. State remains in the lock column despite the loss.  This may end up being a four bid conference. North Carolina (15-6, 5-3; RPI: 31): North Carolina has one great win (over UNLV) and two mediocre ones (Florida State, Maryland), but bad losses against Texas and Virginia are not helping the Tar Heels’ resume. Losing to the under .500 Longhorns by 18 points is inexplicable. The next four games are going to decide the Tar Heels’ fate. First, a game against Wake Forest that would be a big blow to North Carolina’s at-large hopes. Then, back to back trips to Miami on February 9 and Duke on February 13.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 75% Maryland (16-6, 4-5; RPI: 60): Maryland has not played well in ACC play and it might end up costing the Terps an at-large bid. Maryland was swept by Florida State, another ACC bubble team. The Terps have also lost at Miami, at North Carolina, at Duke, and at Florida State. Maryland can’t win on the road and it cannot beat good teams, which typically means NIT. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Virginia (15-5, 5-2; RPI: 95): After wins against Florida State and N. C. State moved the Cavaliers into at-large consideration, Virginia fell to Georgia Tech on Sunday. Virginia needs its RPI to rise quickly and losses like the one to the Yellow Jackets are not helping. Up next are winnable games against Clemson, at Maryland, and Virginia Tech. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35% Florida State (12-9, 4-4; RPI: 66): Florida State knocked off Maryland on Wednesday to pick up  a fifth win against the RPI top 50 and its second win over the Terrapins. Florida State’s resume makes it look more like a mid major than a major though. The five wins over the RPI top 100 are: BYU, Charlotte, Saint Joseph’s, Maryland (twice). Duke demolished the ‘Noles on Saturday. Chances for big wins come down to hosting Miami on Feb. 13 and Florida State still has home and away contests left with North Carolina State. AT-LARGE ODDS: 30%

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1. There  are a few points each season at which it seems like a good time to re-evaluate where things stand in the conference, both on a general and individual scale. With the Big Ten season halfway complete, the Big Ten Network‘s Brent Yarina put together his choices for all-conference honors here. Without giving too much away, let’s just say the top teams in the conference are well-represented and there aren’t too many surprises on the first team. But there are some interesting choices for individual honors that may surprise you, especially considering how we thought the Big Ten would shake out heading into the season. What would be your choices at this point?
2. Without question, Michigan has often looked this season like one of the best teams in the country. But it’s also appeared vulnerable, particularly in hostile road environments. Both of the Wolverines’ losses this season came against top teams on the road — against Ohio State, then at Indiana this weekend — and the Detroit Free Press‘ Drew Sharp believes Michigan can learn a bit from this most recent loss. Sharp writes that the Wolverines have failed in two huge spotlight opportunities, but can come away with some valuable lessons. He also makes the point that they may have no choice but to do so, with the difficult stretch they have coming up.
3. When Illinois jumped out to a 12-0 record, it no doubt surprised just about every college basketball fan, at least to a certain extent. And while it was reasonable to expect that the Illini would stumble at least somewhat once they hit Big Ten play, they had compounded some signature wins that many figured meant Illinois was more for real than we expected them to be. But, as Herb Gould writes for the Chicago Sun-Times, this is hardly that same team anymore. The Illini can’t win on the road nor can they win at home, and suddenly those quality wins against Gonzaga and Butler may be the only thing keeping them afloat in their quest for an NCAA Tournament bid.
4. Purdue has fallen on some hard times, especially earlier this season, but could things be slipping even further now? It had looked for a brief stretch in mid-January that the Boilermakers were starting to get things together and click a little bit, but their last two games have taken them a few steps backward. Jeff Washburn notes in his blog that after Indiana and Northwestern combined to score 172 points in Purdue’a last two games, even Tuesday’s trip to lowly Penn State could be a challenge. And beyond that, there are plenty more games against the conference’s heavyweights on the docket to worry about.
5. Considering how Minnesota began the season, it’s hard to imagine that back-to-back wins would be something of an accomplishment, but at this point it does mean something. The Gophers had been sliding a bit in the conference and, though their two straight wins helps keep them afloat in the Big Ten race, they still have some things to sort out. Andre Hollins called the team’s performance against Iowa this weekend “stagnant,” and Amelia Rayno points out that the kinds of mistakes that nearly cost them the game against Iowa will not fly against teams like Michigan State, who the Gophers draw this week.

1. Scottie Wilbekin received a generous amount of recognition for his defense recently, but his offense is making strides as well. He scored 13 points and dished out seven assists in a much anticipated clash with Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson. “Since the year has gone on I have gotten more comfortable out there,” Wilbekin said. “It has been slowing down. The reads become easier as I’ve grown up. When I just slow down it seems something always opens up.” However, Wilbekin’s defense earned universal acknowledgment for a reason. His defense on Henderson played a large part in forcing Ole Miss’ enigmatic guard into four turnovers. 
2. Henderson was extremely complimentary of Florida after the Gators’ 78-64 win, despite his 25 points on 7-11 shooting from beyond the arc. “I think (Florida) will contend for the national championship,” Henderson said. “We have seen how they have been blowing people out. They execute perfectly.” He didn’t exactly speak as favorably of UF’s student section, the Rowdy Reptiles. “I had to give it to them — I thought they’d be a little bit more mean than they were. There were some funny signs.” The O’Connell Center might be the most volatile environment Henderson and the Rebels have remaining on the schedule, with just a trip to Missouri that could even come close.
3. Kentucky’s freshman laden team has been in desperate need of leadership. Saturday in College Station, senior Julius Mays stepped up as the veteran the Wildcats have been missing. Cat killer Elston Turner would most likely attest to Mays’ excellent defense. “Julius did a great job on Turner,” Kentucky coach John Calipari said. “Because Archie (Goodwin), if Archie ever sees Turner again, leave. If it’s a pickup game, go home. Don’t go near the guy. Julius played him pretty good, and made it hard. He scored some baskets, but (Julius) made it hard.” Turner ended the game with 21 points, including the game tying three pointer in regulation, but Mays impact on the road was invaluable. “Julius, without him, we don’t win today,” Calipari said.
4. It takes a certain level of confidence and toughness to go on the road and win in the SEC. Vols center Kenny Hall says Tennessee just doesn’t have what it takes. “I feel like we still lack mental toughness,” Hall said. “I don’t even feel like we’ve got it down all the way. As a team, it’s about being consistent, staying focused, not turning the ball over, making plays, getting stops without the defensive breakdowns. At home we do a great job of it, but on the road, that’s when we when we really have to step it up, really tighten up our screws.” The Vols are 0-6 away from home this season, and they have five more road games left in SEC play. That is quite a few more defeats if Tennessee can’t put together the mental fortitude to steal one away from the friendly confines of Thompson-Boling Arena.
5. Alabama coach Anthony Grant is confident going to the bench when his team needs composure and leadership. That’s because that’s where fifth year senior Andrew Steele resides. Steele came off the bench with 13 points to steady the Tide in a 58-54 win over Vanderbilt. “The numbers speak for themselves … but the other stuff, just his leadership, his communication, just the respect that he get, I can’t tell you how valuable it is,” Grant said. “For our young guys, they’re learning the lessons of what leadership is all about in terms of what he provides for them. Tonight, he got shots to fall. He had a season-high 13 points. He’s always going to give you the effort and the intangibles. … It’s great to see the ball go in, as hard as he works at it. The other things to me supersede the points, the rebounds and anything else. The intangibles, the leadership, the passion that he has for his team, for this university shows, and it’s contagious.” The numbers Grant refers to is Alabama’s winning percentage with Steele, which is 12-2, as opposed to its 2-5 record without him.

1. Duke Basketball Report: This is a phenomenal article from Al Featherston, looking back at Duke winning number 1,000 nearly four decades ago. The article also includes two of the biggest ACC “What ifs?” ever:
   1. What if Lefty Driesell was given the Duke job?
   2. What if Adolph Rupp had taken over for Duke in the mid-1970’s?

   The first question is fascinating. Driesell built Maryland, but Duke already had a history of success (only five teams beat the Blue Devils to the 1,000 win mark). Could he have taken the Blue Devils to similar heights (and lows)? Just how different would Duke’s program be today if the (aptly described) “mercurial” Driesell ushered in the modern era instead of Coach K. Also, what would have happened to Mike Krzyzewski? Similar butterfly effects happen if Rupp takes over. The article also has historical anecdotes about the dominance of the Durham YMCA in the 1920’s. Seriously, give it a read.

2. ESPN: Well, the inevitable has arrived. Despite not receiving bids from Madison Square Garden or the Barclays Center in New York City, “because of the league’s changing membership,” those two arenas will still be in the running for the 2016-2021 ACC Tournaments. The move makes sense, but it has the potential to be a major flop too. The atmosphere at the ACC Tournament the past few years hasn’t been the same. The declining excitement is largely thanks to an increase in noncompetitive teams, the addition of Thursday and an expanding geographic footprint. Moving the tournament to New York could exacerbate the issues if the league continues to aim for a balanced allotment of tickets.
3. ACC Sports Journal: The ACC is slowly rebuilding. Almost all programs appear to be moving in the right direction, though there are still plenty of questions surrounding almost all of the new coaches: Can Jim Larranaga and Steve Donahue recruit at the ACC level consistently? Can Brian Gregory and Brad Brownell break through to the next level? And can Jeff Bzdelik and Donahue pull their teams out of the cellar? The next couple of seasons are critical to the success of the ACC going forward because coaching stability is a huge factor in sustained success.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: NC State took a gut-punch against Miami without junior guard Lorenzo Brown. The Wolfpack controlled for most of the game, but a late Miami run and some costly errors from CJ Leslie (missed foul shots, turnovers, and dumb fouls) gave the Hurricanes the chance to win. But two stories more important than Reggie Johnson‘s buzzer-beating tip are starting to show through the game. For one, Miami is a solid two games ahead of Duke in the loss column (everyone else has three or more losses). That’s a very, very good place to be going into the second half of conference play. Second, Tyler Lewis finally started showing why he was a McDonald’s All-American. Lewis ran NC State’s offense very well against the best defense in the ACC, and he didn’t look nearly as lost on defense. He still needs some work, but developing Lewis is crucial in the long run.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia Tech was a different team Sunday than the one that got smacked in Charlottesville (to be fair the home-road splits are looking fairly dramatic for Virginia too). The Yellow Jackets looked like they might be due for a repeat of their last game with the Cavaliers as they went into the half down by nine. Brian Gregory said after the loss that his team needed to learn how to finish. Well, the second time around they did just that. Georgia Tech held Virginia to six points in the final 9:40 of the game. The Yellow Jackets were the first ACC team to drop 60 on Virginia. Good luck ranking the middle and bottom of the ACC this season. It’s a train-wreck, though it’s a train-wreck played at a higher level than last year.

1. We will start off this Morning Five by talking about football or more specifically the lack of football for the rest of the college football season. We won’t try to claim that we don’t enjoy football from time to time although we still don’t quite understand America’s obsession with it. Anyways now that football season is officially over we hope the media can shift its focus to basketball as quickly as possible. So if you have friends who are huge football fans and only care about college basketball for the NCAA Tournament try to get them in on some conference basketball because they will quickly learn their is more to college basketball than the NCAA Tournament.
2. One of the subtle changes that will be occurring with conference realignment is the potential movement of conference tournaments from their familiar locations to more functional ones given the new geography of various conferences. In our eyes the two biggest sites are Madison Square Garden and Greensboro Coliseum. Given the disintegration of the Big East it would appear that Madison Square Garden should be opening up and it appears that the ACC is interested in moving the ACC Tournament to the New York City area. It could be a while before that happens as the deadline for bids for the 2016-21 ACC Tournaments already passed with the current bids coming from Atlanta, Charlotte, Greensboro, Tampa, and Washington D.C. Of course, the powers that be could decide to reopen the bidding if they really wanted to get to New York City so it is something to keep an eye on in the future.
3. Over the years we have heard a lot of questionable thing about the various basketball academies, but those criticisms are usually focused on lackluster or non-existent academics. In the case of CCSE Preparatory Academy in Roseville, California the allegations are much more concerning as at least four students are alleging that they were subjected to corporal punishment by the school’s president Francis Ngissah, who was arrested and released on $100,000 bail. The students, who pay $10,000 per year for tuition and another $5,000 per year for boarding, but as the link notes there are several questionable aspects about the school not the least of which is its 24 year-old president, who claims he graduated from Harvard, but Harvard couldn’t verify his attendance which the school’s spokesman explains by saying that Ngissah attended Harvard under another name, but refuses to release that name. At this point all we can say is that we continue to question whether the supposed need for these training academies is worth all of the shady activity at them given how lightly regulated they are.
4. Speaking of students who actually attended Harvard the scandal the rocked the school and took away any chance of its basketball team being a player on the national stage this season appears to be winding down. According to the school, more than half of the approximately 125 students (approximately 1% of the total undegraduate student body) were required to withdraw from the school for an unspecified period of time. Approximately another quarter received disciplinary probation while the other students did not receive any further punishment. We have not heard which group Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry fell into, but would assume that the punishment would not extend beyond this academic year so t hey should probably be able to return to the team next season.
5. While the Manti Te’o circus may have opened up the public’s eyes to the world of catfishing it appears that some programs were aware of it and tried to teach its players how to avoid it. According to some reports Michigan may have engaged in catfishing some of its football players. While some individuals are trying to avoid using the term “catfish” when they describe what happened to their players it appears that they did end up catfishing the players. Our favorite part of the story is a quote attributed to Brady Hoke who describes the female who was used to lure in the football players in this way: “she was hot, now; a very, very nice looking young lady”.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

The Weekend’s Lede. One More Month. Passage into February is a temporal marker for college basketball’s great postseason. Talks of preparing for “next month” are fair game now. Bubble discussion will rage on a daily basis. Each win will be scrutinized not just by the box score, but for its RPI and strength of schedule effects. The next monthly calendar flipping will bring even more excitement, but as the large masses who casually check in on the sport after the Super Bowl conveniently forget, the race to the dance can be just as tantalizing as the dance itself. From here on out, the competition will be fierce, the pressure will mount, and each and every day will bring us closer to our final destination: the NCAA Tournament. With another weekend in the books, time to revisit the first February action of this college hoops season.

Your Watercooler Moment. Another Slow Start Dooms Michigan.

A poor start hurt Michigan’s chances Saturday in Bloomington (Photo credit: Getty Images).

Everybody loses games. What separates the great from the merely good, is the ability to learn from those losses, eliminate the bad tendencies, keep the good ones and readjust your memory bank. Michigan knows the perils of getting out to a slow start on the road in Big Ten play. In its lone loss of the season prior to Saturday’s eight-point defeat in Bloomington, the Wolverines allowed Ohio State to storm out to a 16-3 lead in Columbus. Michigan clawed back to make a real game of it, but in the end, Ohio State held on. The Wolverines’ early sluggishness put them in too large a hole to climb out of. Michigan should have come away from that loss with a stern appreciation for how to handle the opening minutes of high-level conference road games. Against Indiana, managing the early possessions without letting things get out of hand was the foremost hurdle to knocking off the No. 3 team in the country in its own super-packed, deafening, red-and-white filled building. Michigan didn’t – the Wolverines allowed the Hoosiers to bust open a 28-13 advantage by the 10-minute mark in the first half, ignite a delirious Hoosiers crowd and force the Wolverines into a massive uphill climb from that point onward. Michigan responded with excellent point guard play from Trey Burke and solid bench production from freshman big man Mitch McGary, but much like the Ohio State game, the Wolverines couldn’t quite make it all the way back.

Other factors – Victor Oladipo’s energetic defense, Cody Zeller’s easy looks in the post, the natural benefits of playing in one of the nation’s fiercest home gyms, Michigan’s numerous chances to win the game later on – need to be considered before pinning this loss entirely on Michigan’s slow beginning. And I don’t doubt John Beilein counseled his team on the dangers of a slow start at a hostile hoops fortress like Assembly Hall. But it just felt like Michigan came out with a tentative, almost rattled mindset – that once Indiana started hitting shots, the Wolverines had no power to settle the game down, collect themselves and dictate the flow on their terms. The comeback effort was strong, again, but it doesn’t disabuse the fact that Michigan played into the Hoosiers’ home-crafted momentum advantage, and had a much, much better shot at leaving with a W if not for that poor opening stretch. An eight-point loss at Indiana is not the end of the world; Michigan will rebound, and when these teams meet again on March 10, you can expect another high-paced, high-intensity, high-stakes battle. 

Also Worth Chatting About. Um, Kansas?

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Marquette took the outright lead in the Big East when Syracuse lost at Pittsburgh on Saturday. That distinction was short-lived, as the Golden Eagles emerged from their game against Louisville the next day with a humbling 70-51 defeat and the league’s upper echelon nipping at their heels. Beneath Marquette and the slumping Orange suddenly lie four teams a half-game behind at 6-3, including the resurgent Cardinals. The game put to bed several of the lingering misgivings about whether Rick Pitino’s team had really turned a corner after  its close win over Pitt last Monday. Rebounding and shooting percentage defense had been of particular concern. The win over the Panthers was a messy affair in which neither team could corral many defensive rebounds. It had also marked the third time in four games that the Cardinals gave up more than 44% shooting from beyond the arc.

Louisville’s transition offense got back on track against Marquette (Credit AP)

Neither issue manifested against Marquette, though. After a vexing first five minutes in which Louisville failed to make a field goal, Pitino plugged in energetic backups Montrezl Harrell and Stephan Van Treese. In about 10 first-half minutes apiece, the big men combined to hit each of their three shots (all dunks) and grab five offensive rebounds. Their enthusiasm also lifted the play of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, who entered halftime with a cumulative 21 points, seven rebounds and six assists and would finish the game with 32 points on 12-of-24 shooting. Fundamentally sound rebounding from every position and stingy man-to-man defense catalyzed a 37-15 run that sent the Cardinals to halftime with a 14-point lead.

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Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

Winning on the road seems to become a tougher challenge every year in college hoops. Ask Jim Boeheim about Syracuse’s loss to Pittsburgh on the road or Dana Altman about the Ducks unable to close the deal at California on Saturday – road games are no joke at this time of the year. Keeping that trend in mind, imagine the Wolverines’ challenge on Saturday night at Assembly Hall, where they had to deal with approximately 17,000 Hoosier fans who have been marinating in the cold all day thinking about this game. During ESPN’s College GameDay special on Saturday morning, they interviewed a bunch of Big Ten players about the toughest Big Ten venue and Assembly Hall was the unanimous answer. The Hoosiers’ 81-73 win on Saturday night in Bloomington may put IU back at the top of the polls again but let’s not forget that this is the first part of this series — they will play again in Ann Arbor on March 10 where the tables could be turned. Having said that, the Hoosiers played with more intensity right from the tip and executed well on both ends of the floor. The following are three thoughts from the match-up.

Cody Zeller (right) was smiling after the win in Bloomington but Trey Burke (left) will have a shot to return the favor in Ann Arbor on March 10. (AP Photo/D. Cummings)

1. The Hoosiers had more transition opportunities than the Wolverines. The credit goes to the Hoosiers’ transition defense here. They limited Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway from transition opportunities by allowing jumpers. The two Wolverines combined to take 17 shots from beyond the arc and couldn’t find easy buckets around the hoop because Victor Oladipo and Christian Watford hustled back on defense throughout. Without any transition opportunities, the Wolverines were not able to get to the free throw line consistently and finished with just seven opportunities from the charity line. On the flip side, the Hoosiers were running wild to end up with 25 free throw attempts on their end, and as a result, were in a comfort zone offensively. Even in their half-court sets, the Hoosiers clogged the lanes for Burke and Hardaway, therefore giving up only jumpers. Transition opportunities were a key factor in this game and the Hoosiers clearly won that challenge Saturday night. Read the rest of this entry »

Kenny Ocker (@kennyocker) is a journalist based in the Northwest who filed this story after Arizona’s win against Washington State in Pullman on Saturday night.

Halfway through its Pac-12 schedule, Arizona looks like a team prepared to make an impact come March. The Wildcats have wiggled their way back into a tie for the Pac-12 lead with Oregon despite losing in Eugene in mid-January. The one other loss came at home to UCLA two weeks later, but neither snowballed for Arizona. Instead, the Wildcats have run straight through everything that could have derailed the momentum they built up in the non-conference season with wins over Florida, Miami and San Diego State. Even on the road against Washington State, two days after a last-possession win against Washington, with Kevin Parrom ejected for elbowing Cougars guard DaVonte Lacy in the first half and star senior guard Mark Lyons picking up three first-half fouls, Arizona barely blinked, taking a 40-26 lead into halftime in Pullman, which led to a 79-65 win.

Solomon Hill had six three-pointers in the first half to lead Arizona back into a tie for first in the Pac-12.

But what makes Arizona so good? Is it having senior leadership? Is it having a talented offense? Is it having a stingy defense? It seems to be all of those things. On a night where Lyons picked up four fouls by the 17-minute mark of the second half and Parrom was booted, fellow senior Solomon Hill filled in the gap for Sean Miller’s squad with six three-pointers – including a three-quarter-court heave at the halftime buzzer – finishing with 18 points. For the season, the trio is averaging around 36 points per game and are three of the Wildcats’ top four scorers, along with sophomore guard Nick Johnson. Arizona’s offense is one that benefits from its best-in-the-conference free-throw shooting, especially thanks to the fouls drawn by ball-handlers Lyons and Johnson, who can get into the lane at will. Once they get there, they capitalize at a team-wide 75 percent rate. That, combined with strong offensive rebounding, leads to the conference’s most efficient offense, despite average two-point and three-point shooting and pedestrian turnover numbers. Where the Wildcats stand out most is on the defensive end. They force turnovers on nearly one in five opponent possessions, allow 40 percent shooting and clear the boards better than anyone in the Pac-12. Johnson’s quick hands lead to more than two steals per game, and Hill averages just more than a steal per game.

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I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.

When you hear the word “Niagara” you’re not likely to think of basketball. But in the shadow of one of the world’s natural wonders, something is percolating on the hardwood. After a thrilling 93-90 overtime win over Iona that included a rally from a late 15-point deficit and a buzzer-beating three-pointer to win the game, Niagara sits atop the MAAC standings at 10-1. A win over Loyola today would cap a tremendous week for the Purple Eagles, giving them a perfect 3-0 record against the next three teams in the standings — Iona, Loyola, and Canisius — over the past seven days.

Juan’ya Green Capped Niagara’s Thrilling Win Over Iona With a Last-Second Three-Pointer in Overtime (James P. McCoy / Buffalo News)

Last year, Niagara finished 14-19, the first time in head coach Joe Mihalich’s 10-year tenure that he suffered consecutive losing seasons. Mihalich had taken the Purple Eagles to the NCAA Tournament in 2005 and 2007 and to the NIT in 2004 and 2009, but the team had fallen behind the pack in the MAAC in the three years since. The seeds of a resurgence were planted during last year’s losing campaign, as a host of young players started to find their footing in Division 1 college hoops. Having lost no one to graduation, Niagara was predicted to finish fifth in the MAAC in the preseason coaches’ poll. That seemed a fair, perhaps optimistic, assessment, but the clear light of hindsight makes a mockery of it.

What accounts for the turnaround? Mostly the maturation of Niagara’s all-sophomore backcourt: Juan’ya Green, Antoine Mason, and Ameen Tanksley. Last year, the trio showed that they had talent. This year, they’re showing that they can channel it into efficient offense.  Green is actually averaging fewer points (16.5) than he did as a freshman (17.6), but that’s in part because he’s managed to corral his considerable talents and become a more effective facilitator. Coming out of high school, Green was known for his prodigious scoring ability, but questions lingered about his ability to create for his teammates. He’s answering those questions this year, increasing his assists (5.2 per game) and decreasing his turnovers (2.8 per game). With Green deferring more to his teammates, Mason, the son of former NBA player Anthony Mason, has stepped into the role of lead scorer. He’s upped his per-game average from 15.1 to a team-leading 18.7, but more importantly, he’s become a much more efficient scorer.  He’s increased his field goal percentage from 38.2 to 44.6. He now shoots almost 80 percent from the free throw line, after shooting less than 65 percent last year, a significant development because of his knack for getting to the charity stripe. Tanksley, for his part, has also boosted his field goal percentage, from 38.6 to 45.7 and upped his scoring average into double-digits.

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