Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Their is only one match-up of Top 25 opponents tonight.  The Battle for Michigan went to the Wolverines last season.  Let’s take a look at who has the advantage this season.

John Beilein and the Wolverines need a big win against their in-state rivals tonight

#9 Michigan State at #16 Michigan – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Michigan State lost both games to its in-state rival last season in a down year for Tom Izzo and company. This season, the Spartans bring a team into Ann Arbor that ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State, Syracuse, and Kentucky are the only other schools that rank in the top ten in both categories in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Is that our Final Four come March? Possibly, but right now the Spartans have to pick themselves up from a loss to Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats posted an eFG of 57.7% against a tough Spartan defense thanks to strong shooting from beyond the arc. It was Michigan State’s worst field goal defense of the season. Prior to the loss on Saturday though, Michigan State had won 15 straight games thanks to solid shooting and fantastic offensive rebounding. While Michigan State has slipped a bit on defense in the conference season, their offensive numbers are getting better. They have improved significantly from the three-point line, increasing their shooting percentage from 36% to 42%. With the Wolverines giving up 41.1% from downtown in conference play thus far, this is an area to keep an eye on throughout the game. Solid three-point shooting and great offensive rebounding is a difficult combination to beat.
• Michigan is in need of a good win. Their last four games consist of a loss at Indiana, a home win against a Wisconsin team in the midst of a three-game losing streak, an overtime win at home against Northwestern, and a blow out loss against Iowa on the road. The Wolverines have seen a significant drop-off in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play. Their three-point shooting percentage has dipped below 30% against conference opponents. To compound the season long ineffectiveness beyond the arc, Michigan is actually shooting more threes in Big Ten play than in the non-conference season. Three-pointers make up 44.1% of Michigan’s field goal attempts in six Big Ten games. Even more alarming is the significant drop in two-point shooting. Michigan is only hitting 48.9% of its two-point attempts against the stronger defenses in the Big Ten. Establishing Jordan Morgan on the inside may be the answer to Michigan’s shooting issues. Morgan is third on the team in two-point attempts and is hitting approximately 65% of his shots. Going down low to Morgan early may open up the perimeter to give Michigan better looks.
• A key match-up in this game will be Michigan State’s offensive rebounding versus Michigan’s defensive rebounding. If the Spartans are able to own the offensive glass, it will put a lot of pressure on the Michigan offense to hit shots since the Wolverines are not good on the offensive boards. Second chance points always beats empty possessions. Given their current shooting slump, it’s tough to foresee Michigan breaking out against a strong Michigan defense. Then again, it’s a rivalry game and anything can happen.

1. Cameron Clark had a productive freshman season for Oklahoma leading many (like yours truly) to believe he would break out as a sophomore this year. He hasn’t reached star status yet, but Clark is starting to emerge as of late. The 6’6” guard scored 10 points in a win over Kansas State, and his coaches and teammates say they are starting to see him play with more and more confidence as the year progresses. Romero Osby even says Clark is one of the best players on the floor every time he plays a game, which is high praise coming from one of the Big 12’s best rebounders. And here’s an interesting fact: Clark averages 13.1 points per game during Oklahoma wins and just 6.3 points per game in losses. Sounds like he’s a forgotten piece of Lon Kruger‘s team.
2. In another part of the state, Oklahoma State is trying to find a way to recover from a 40-point beatdown by Baylor this weekend. But at least one writer says we shouldn’t give up the on the Cowboys just yet. No, Oklahoma State won’t compete for a Big 12 title with all of the injuries and transfers it has dealt with so far, but the guy has a point. This team is still 2-2 in the league, and if LeBryan Nash ever emerges as a star, this team could finally find a way to score consistently. This team is already fairly solid defensively, so just a little boost from Nash, Keiton Page and perhaps another option could help Travis Ford at least salvage a post-season berth and winning league record.
3. Texas is a mainstay in the NCAA tournament. In fact, Rick Barnes has never missed the Big Dance since arriving in Austin 13 seasons ago. That streak may end this season, unless Texas can find a way to finish above .500 in the Big 12 and knock off a few quality opponents. The young Longhorns are still getting inconsistent production out of Myck Kabongo, but you have to think he and the rest of the freshmen on this team will step up to help J’Covan Brown one of these days. Luckily, Texas will still has several contests with Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri looming so it has a chance to improve its resume before March.
4. After Kansas State‘s loss to Baylor, Frank Martin did not throw his hands in the air and simply attribute the loss to playing against a great team. Instead, he punished a few players (like Angel Rodriguez) by making them run stairs while the rest of the team watched tape. Martin then relegated Rodriguez to the bench against Oklahoma, a game it lost in Norman by nine points– though it was uglier than that margin would suggest. Although Martin’s tactics seem like a little much, the man knows what he’s doing. Last season, after his pre-season top-25 team hit a free-fall in the middle of the season, Martin rallied that group and recovered just fine. Although the 1-3 record in the Big 12 doesn’t look very good, Martin will find a way to turn things around.
5. The NBA comparisons for Royce White are ridiculous. Fred Hoiberg says he’s Kevin Garnett; Frank Haith says he’s Magic Johnson. And now, Travis Ford says he’s Jamal Mashburn. Ford says White is one of the best ball-handling forwards he’s see in the Big 12, and the guy certainly deserves every accolade opposing coaches give him. But this is starting to get a little wild. Why not let him establish himself instead of placing him on a pedestal next to NBA greats? At least White has a sense of humor about all of this. Remember, he did say that Haith’s comparison to Magic was “outrageous.”

1. The SEC doesn’t take holidays off as the league announced its SEC Men’s Players of the Week. Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie was named the Player of the Week after averaging 19 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks last week. Moultrie had a monster game against Alabama with 25 points and 13 rebounds. He is tied for an SEC best with nine double-doubles. The Freshman of the Week was Kentucky’s Anthony Davis. Davis is closing in on the single season blocks record at UK as he added eight blocks this week. The 6’11” center averaged 16 points, seven rebounds, four blocks, 2.5 steals, and two assists per game. He has scored in double figures in seven straight games.
2. Florida’s Patric Young is scheduled for both an MRI and an X-ray this week for his injured ankle. The injury limited him to four points and three rebounds (the article states Young grabbed four rebounds, but he only had three) on just two attempted shots and only 13 minutes of action. Gators coach Billy Donovan doesn’t consider the injury to be serious though. “My main concern with him is conditioning because he has been limited in practice,” Donovan said. While Young was limited to a season low 13 minutes of action, he somehow managed to pick up four fouls.
3. Former Ole Miss guard Dundrecous Nelson, who was dismissed from the team following drug charges, is transferring to Jackson State. Nelson was averaging 11.6 points per game in 14 games for the Rebels, but was turning the ball over 2.3 times per contest. He was replaced in the starting lineup as Andy Kennedy looked for a steady point guard to lead his team. Kennedy still hasn’t found the answer though as Ole Miss averages 16.8 turnovers per game, which is worst in the SEC.
4. Don’t look now, but Vanderbilt may have quietly turned a corner into the second best team in the conference. The Commodores are on a seven-game winning streak, and they are improving on previous areas of concern. Typically, teams that are extremely reliant on the three-point shot have difficulty finding other ways to score when long range shots aren’t falling. On the season the Commodores average 36.8% of their points from the three-point shot. In its win over Georgia on Saturday, Vanderbilt limited its points from beyond the arc to only 19.5%. While that might not be a positive, the fact that the Commodores were aggressive in finding extra points at the free throw line is a good sign. Vandy’s free throw rate (calculated by FTA/FGA) was by far a season high of 107.3. For comparison, its next best free throw rate this season was 61.1 against North Carolina State.
5. Kentucky is looking like a Final Four team, despite not playing well on the road. The Cats continue to find a way to win though. And John Calipari‘s team gets it done on the defensive end. A Kentucky opponent hasn’t shot over 50% from the field since Connecticut did it in the first match-up between the two foes last year on November 24, 2010  in the Maui Invitational Tournament. In fact, the highest shooting percentage an opponent has achieved this season has been 43.1% by Indiana, which of course resulted in a loss for the Wildcats. Going on the road in the SEC caused a slight setback this week for the Cats as both Auburn and Tennessee shot over 40% in what resulted in closer than expected wins for the Wildcats.

Well, you may have heard that Roy Williams‘ early departure got more time in the news when North Carolina released his account of the incident. Condensing the story, Williams didn’t realize his walk-ons were still on the court after the rest of his team left the floor and apologized to them today. This immediately resulted in backlash from both local and national media for being late and a little weird (it’s not like it made him look better). My thoughts are this (admittedly having no more actual information than anyone else): Williams was livid with his team’s performance and legitimately concerned for its safety, so he went to the locker room and did not even see who was following him. Now, if I was handling the situation, I would’ve put my walk-ons right by the bench, had everyone sit down as soon as the game was over and watch the court rushing from the relative safety of a folding chair. Princeton did this last year in its road loss to Harvard (admittedly, the Harvard crowd was significantly smaller than Florida State). Not only would this prove a point, but I also think players sitting on the bench would be perfectly safe and could leave in peace once the students were on the court. Anyways, that’s my two cents. Here are Tar Heel Fan Blog‘s (with Williams’ comments from his radio show).

1. TechSideline.com: Chris Coleman offers a brutally honest diagnosis of Virginia Tech basketball. It’s also an indictment of Seth Greenberg (one really interesting stat is that Greenberg had more NBA players in six years at Long Beach State than in over eight years at Virginia Tech). As much as I want to remind Hokie fans that Greenberg brought them to new heights, it’s not unreasonable to think he might be on the hot seat. Not on fire, but the points Coleman makes about the team’s personality and falling ticket sales are real issues.
2. Fayetteville Observer: Duke’s Austin Rivers has really struggled the last few games. Ironically, the national media seems to be ambivalent at this point. Rivers has the right attitude about his slump though, pointing to the team’s undefeated conference record and working more in practice instead of grumbling about getting less playing time. The freshman is still averaging over 14 points a game and is by far the best shot-creator Duke has.
3. Washington Post: Mike Wise takes a look at Sean Mosley, who is really the main link between Maryland’s past and present. Mosley started with the likes of Greivis Vasquez, and now he provides necessary leadership for a very young Terrapin team this year. Mosley does the crafty things, mainly shot fakes and steals, as well as the fundamental things, like hitting free throws. He’ll almost never wow you from the stat line, but it’s hard to watch Maryland and think there’s a more important intangibles guy.
4. Soaring To Glory: Is it time to re-evaluate the ceiling for Boston College? I certainly think so (now that the Eagles have reached the prediction I set in the preseason). Now, do I think that BC will win five conference games? I’m not so sure. I think three or four conference games sounds about right (winning against Wake Forest and Miami at home if I had to guess). Still, the fact that we’re even having this discussion is a sign of how much the Eagles have improved over the last month.
5. Lynchburg News & Advance: If you want to get in the Morning Five, just use the phrase “he’s pretty popular with the ladies on a campus notorious for its attractive women.” That’s what Nathan Warters did, describing Deividas Dulkys. It’s actually a very good article on the Lithuanian assassin, who came to the Seminoles via Findlay Prep. Wait, this article was written in 2010? Whatever, it’s still worth a read following the career performance from Dulkys.

1. In this week’s edition of his usual “Hoops Thoughts” column, Sports Illustrated‘s Seth Davis took a look at who hurt themselves and who helped themselves with their non-conference schedules. The Big East representatives were West Virginia, Cincinnati, and St. John’s. The Mountaineers resume will look nice thanks to non-conference wins over Kansas State, Miami, Oral Roberts, and Missouri State. The Bearcats and Red Storm haven’t done themselves any favors and rank 304th and 161st nationally in strength of schedule. Mick Cronin‘s club in particular will have their non-conference schedule scrutinized as they are the more likely bubble team at this juncture and still sport embarrassing non-conference losses to Presbyterian and Marshall…AT HOME.
2. There is little doubt that Louisville has been dealt its fair share of adversity this season, especially when it comes to injuries. Yesterday was no exception as the Cardinals not only lost a crucial road game against Marquette without leading scorer Kyle Kuric, but they also may have lost forward Rakeem Buckles who left the game after injuring his left knee and did not return. If you recall, Buckles missed all of last season and part of this one while recovering from a torn ACL in his right knee and now CBS Sports is reporting yesterday’s injury as a hyper-extension. It is especially unfortunate because Buckles finally seemed to be contributing meaningful minutes and rebounding and now he goes back on the shelf for a yet-to-be-determined amount of time. The Cardinals better get their roster and their offense sorted out soon because their slide is starting to put them squarely on the bubble.
3. Improper benefits are hardly an uncommon occurrence in the shady world of college basketball recruiting, but the fact that Connecticut freshman Ryan Boatright is being held out of games for the second time this season while the NCAA re-investigates claims of improper benefits is strange to behold. Things got stranger recently with rumors that the NCAA tipster is actually a jealous ex-boyfriend of Boatright’s mother, Tanesha. The NCAA isn’t about to start confirming or denying gossip surrounding an ongoing investigation, but if this is true, it is sad that Boatright’s career is on hold because of a jilted former flame that has very little to do with him or his season with the Huskies. The story is important for two reasons. One, UConn needs Boatright to continue developing and playing crucial minutes if they are going to have a chance at repeating. And two, Boatright has shown that he has a bright future playing basketball, and it would be unfortunate to see that future even temporarily derailed over petty jealousy.
4. Nice story from Asbury Park Press reporter Josh Newman about highly touted Pittsburgh signee and New Zealand native Steven Adams. After watching Khem Birch decide to leave school before the end of his first season, Panthers’ coach Jamie Dixon desperately needs Adams to get to campus, stay on campus, and become an instant contributor in the frontcourt. Adams has been lighting it up recently, including 23 points and 13 rebounds in Saturday’s win over Nerlens Noel and the Tilton (N.H.) School at the Springfield Hoophall Classic. The one thing I did find particularly interesting was that Newman posed the question of how Adams ended up signing at Pittsburgh without mentioning the fact that Birch also went to Notre Dame Prep. Make no mistake, Adams and Birch are different recruits, but there are enough similarities to point them out in this type of article. In Dixon and the Panthers’ case, they are hoping the similarities end at the two recruits’ alma mater.
5. One day before Syracuse advanced to 20-0, their best start in school history, the good folks at Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician penned an interesting take on why Syracuse fans are always so miffed about the lack of national respect for their team. Let’s clarify, there are plenty of pundits and knowledgable basketball folks who are still willing to poke holes in the Orange’s flawless resume, and that makes Syracuse fans ticked off. The point of the post is that this year’s team is not the same as last year’s team that started 19-0, and that just because the statistics don’t necessarily back up the Orange’s lofty ranking, that doesn’t mean they don’t belong there. The post is an in-depth and interesting read, and for the record, I agree with the point that this year’s Syracuse team deserves more credit for their showing thus far. There is no way you can leave this team out of the “Best In The Country” discussion.

1. The people over at Basketball Prospectus do some interesting statistical analysis and the latest project by Drew Cannon appears to be no different. Cannon is borrowing on the work of several others most notably the Marquette blog Cracked Sidewalks to build on a Value Add statistic for college basketball players. Cannon explains the basic statistical analysis in his post yesterday. Some people may get scared away by the use of variables and equations, but it is a rather simple analysis (the regressions involved in calculating the constants are a bit more complex). Cannon promises to release his Value Add rankings, which are only for offensive production, later in the day so be on the look out for it and we will be sure to link to it tomorrow with our thoughts on the results.
2. It is Tuesday so you know that means another edition of Hoop Thoughts from Seth Davis. Technically it comes out on Monday afternoon, but that’s too late to make our Monday M5. This week Seth takes a look at 10 bubble teams who helped themselves and 10 bubble teams who hurt themselves with their non-conference schedules. If you are a neutral observer and have been following closely the 20 teams he selected should not be a surprise, but if you are a fan of a bubble team and maybe be a little delusional (and all fans are to some extent) it could be a sobering reminder that your team has quite a bit of work cut out for them.
3. In an attempt to prevent another massive Nevin Shapiro-like scandal from occurring Miami has announced that its boosters would no longer be allowed to entertain student-athletes. For those of you who weren’t highly recruited athletes coming out of college, the NCAA allows “an occasional meal from a representative of athletics interests on infrequent and special occasions”, but this goes much further. As you would expect some current Miami boosters are not thrilled by the decision and expect it to have a negative influence on donations. For a program that already suffers from an apathetic fan base, this decision could further hinder any hopes of rebuilding the program into an athletic powerhouse.
4. Last week during a blowout loss at Michigan State, Iowa coach Fran McCaffery picked up a technical and responded by slamming a chair down on the court. Afterwards, the Big Ten was critical of McCaffery’s actions, but did not punish him and did not ask him to apologize. Instead, they simply hoped that he would not do something similar in the future. Yesterday, the athletic director at Iowa said that McCaffery’s actions had crossed a line, but again declined to punish McCaffery or seek any form of apology. For his part, McCaffery does not seem to be the least bit remorseful so don’t be surprised if we see this sort of juvenile behavior from him in the future.
5. Just when you thought the drama surrounding North Carolina‘s retreat from the court on Saturday was over, Roy Williams dropped this little gem during a local radio show: he meant to take his entire team off the court for the final 14.2 seconds of its 33-point loss at Florida State. Roy apologized to the five players who remained on the court saying his intent was to get everybody off the floor. While it is noble of Roy to defend the group, which included three walk-ons who so bravely risked their lives for the honor of their school, it does raise the question as to whether he intended to forfeit the game, which is what he would have been doing if he had taken everybody off the court.

More MLK basketball from the Big East is in store for us this evening. The nation’s top-ranked Syracuse Orange hosts visiting Pittsburgh in the Carrier Dome — can Pitt save its season with a statement win before it gets too late?

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Game recaps are boring. If you want to read them, search your local newspaper or the Associated Press. Four Thoughts is our brand new, not-so creatively titled feature where, in lieu of a game recap, we give you four thoughts about key Big East action. Enjoy!

Council Overruled

It is rare that conference opponents would face each other twice by mid-January, but that was the case on Saturday when Providence and Syracuse met in the Carrier dome.  Syracuse won the first meeting by an 87-73 score that was not indicative of the overall play.  In one of the few challenges Syracuse has faced this year, Providence hung tough at home in a game where both teams played well.  Syracuse led by only two points at the half, and six with just over five minutes to go in the game before making a late run  to log the double-digit victory.  Despite that good home showing by the Friars, coupled with any momentum generated by their 31-point romp over #14 Louisville on Tuesday, Providence (justifiably) remained heavy underdogs on the road versus the #1 Orange.  Long odds became virtually impossible when it was learned publicly just an hour or so before Saturday night’s game that Providence’s best player and leading scorer, point guard Vincent Council (16.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 7.1 APG) would be held out of the game due unspecified coach’s decision.   Council was coming off a 15-point, 14-assist performance in the Louisville win and had 17 points and five assists in the first meeting with the Orange.  Not only is Council Providence’s leader, he is their only legitimate point guard averaging 37.7 minutes per game as a result.  In the court system that is Providence basketball, the judge, jury and probably even court stenographer is head coach Ed Cooley.  After the game, as reported in the Providence Journal, Cooley termed the reason for sitting Council an “accountability issue,” adding “it could be multiple games but it definitely is my decision.” Council’s suspension represented a bold move by first-year head coach Cooley, who is trying to change the culture of what was an undisciplined program under former coach Keno Davis.

Syracuse's Pressure was Too Much for the Council-less Friars (Photo by Frank Ordonez, The Post-Standard)

Under Pressure – The Turning Point

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As part of our continuing coverage to show you how idiotic the college football BCS system is and hopefully point out some of the differences between the human and computer college basketball rankings we are releasing our world famous RTC BCS Poll yet again. For details on how this works, check out our previous post on the topic where we discuss the methodology and Week 1 rankings. Analysis and BCS match-ups after the jump.

Click to enlarge

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It was very surprising to see so much criticism directed at Roy Williams for having the North Carolina bench depart to the locker room before the buzzer at the end of Saturday’s Florida State game. There are a lot of things to criticize about North Carolina’s performance, but this simply isn’t one of them. Despite Leonard Hamilton making it abundantly clear that North Carolina went to the locker room early at his urging, Internet commenters have been quick to throw around “bad sport” and “sore loser” labels. This is silly. Williams gracefully accepted Hamilton’s suggestion and the bulk of the North Carolina staff and players were able to exit the area without incident. Somehow, this has been interpreted as a disservice to the remaining North Carolina players who were left to face the rushed-court alone. Of course, this is patently ridiculous. In situations where a rush is imminent, off-duty police officers and event security staff generally have the responsibility of making sure that the visiting team is safely escorted to the locker room without incident. Generally, there aren’t enough of these staffers to adequately escort the entire team’s staff. By limiting the number of folks who needed escort to the five remaining North Carolina players, the security staff had a much more manageable, though still difficult task (the players left on the court still got bumped and pushed by over-exuberant and misguided Seminole fans). The move seemed sensible, safe, and agreed upon by both teams. It allowed for a safer rush. What’s wrong with this?

Leonard Hamilton Thought He Made Himself Clear

At the “neutral” site loss to UNLV, the court was rushed by excited Runnin’ Rebels fans, an undeniably exciting moment that was somewhat marred by a few boisterous fans knocking over members of UNC’s training staff. If you were Williams and you saw a way to avoid a repeat of a similar incident offered by your opponent’s coach, wouldn’t you take it? It was an odd thing to see, but all things considered it feels like the right and mature move by the leaders of both teams. The worst part about this little incident is how it takes the spotlight away from the impressiveness of Florida State’s thorough domination of the Tar Heels. It just seems odd to me that there’s so much to-do over how North Carolina left Tallahassee and not enough talk about how the team never even bothered to show up in the first place.