RTC is pleased to announce that we’ll be covering all of the major conference tournaments this year — the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC — in addition to the strongest two high-middies, the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West.  Each day for the rest of this week, we’re asking our correspondents to provide us with a Daily Diary of the sights and sounds from the arena at each site.  Equal parts game analysis and opinion, the hope is that this will go beyond the tiresome game recaps you can find elsewhere and give you an insightful look into Championship Week.  Today’s coverage:  Big East and Big 12.

Big East Tournament – by Rob Dauster

• Georgetown cannot win without Chris Wright. Simply put, they are a different team without him in the lineup. The offensive creativity is not there, obviously, but the Hoyas seems to lack leadership, composure, and intensity. UConn didn’t just outplay the Hoyas tonight. They outworked them. They beat them up in the paint. They got to the offensive glass. They got all the loose balls. That, as much as anything, is why Georgetown lost this game by halftime.
• In the press conference after the game, Jim Calhoun was asked about why Kemba Walker wasn’t a unanimous first team all-Big East selection, and he responded “I think someone took a five month vacation and forgot to tell us.” I can get on board with Kemba Walker not being the player of the year. I thought Ben Hansbrough deserved it. But to say that this kid wasn’t one of the six best players (yes, the Big East has a six-person first team) is just ludicrous.
• The referees did a piss-poor job at the end of the Rutgers-St. John’s game. They missed an over the back that allowed DJ Kennedy to get another shot at shooting free throws  with five seconds left. They missed a foul on the inbounds pass to Gil Biruta at mid court. And they missed a travel and an out of bounds call on Justin Brownlee before the game was actually over. That said, the refs didn’t cost Rutgers the game. They cost the Scarlett Knights a shot at a prayer to win the game. Its still inexcusable, but there is a big difference.
• Seeing St. John’s, a team that beat Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame, Duke, and UConn at the Garden, struggle with Rutgers was worrisome. The Johnnies played terrific basketball in the month of February, winning seven of their last eight games. What people forget is that this team also lost five of six right before that. Today, at least, it appeared as if the Johnnies were regressing to the mean.
• Yancy Gates was a top 25 recruit coming out of high school. He hasn’t put up the numbers that you generally expect from a 6’10, 260-lb kid that is a top 25 recruit. That is more an issue of effort than of talent. When Gates plays like he did tonight — scoring 25 points against a good front line of Jarrid Famous and Gus Gilchrist, he is as good as any big man in the Big East.
• I will freely admit that this game struggled to hold my attention. It was not pretty. It was over before the half was over. The South Florida and Cincinnati cheerleaders were quite attractive, and the internet at MSG is strong enough this season that I can stream games online, which means that I spent quite a bit of time watching the exciting LIU-Robert Morris NEC title game. That said, I did look up for long enough to see a Cincinnati male cheerleader drop one of the female cheerleaders during one of their maneuvers. She was fine. I laughed.
• Marquette locked up a tournament bid with this win tonight, if they hadn’t already done so. And I, for one, am glad.  This is a fun team to watch. They play hard, they run the floor, they get out and defend, and they have a number of versatile options offensively.
• Darius Johnson-Odom will get the credit for this win, as he hit two enormous threes down the stretch to win the game. But Junior Cadougan was the hero, finishing with 15 points, five assists and just one turnover. His stats don’t represent his influence, either. Every play that was made, he seemed to be a part of, whether it was the defense forcing a steal, the offense getting a rebound, or the Golden Eagles coming up with a loose ball.
• I cannot figure West Virginia out. This is team is just too inconsistent, and I get the feeling that there are internal issues. Casey Mitchell and Deniz Kilicli played just 29 minutes tonight, combined, despite the Mountaineers playing like garbage on the offensive end in the second half. Just a game removed from Kevin Jones getting 11 offensive rebounds on his own, WVU managed just nine as a team. Pick them at your own risk next week.

Big 12 Tournament – by Brian Goodman

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Jared Quillen is the RTC correspondent for the SEC. With tournament action set to tip from Atlanta on Thursday, get set with RTC’s regular season recap and postseason outlook.

Postseason Preview

Hottest Teams Going Into The Postseason:

• Florida – Pasting Alabama to close out the season is a really good sign.
• Kentucky – Looking good on a lot of people’s brackets after winning two tough ones and they’ve been top 10 at KenPom.com all season.

Tournament Sleeper: Mississippi State – Too much talent here to not be dangerous when push comes to shove.  The question is, will they play the way they’re capable or the way when they’ve fumbled?

Best First Round Matchup: Tennessee vs. Arkansas, Thursday – The South Carolina/Ole Miss game doesn’t carry much weight, and I don’t see Georgia having too much trouble with Auburn, nor Vanderbilt with LSU.  Arkansas is the higher seeded team here due to the wackiness of the Southeastern Conference Tournament seeding (more on that later).  Arkansas won the previous meeting 68-65 in Fayetteville.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated on Thursday, 5:30 ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Southern Cal, VCU, UAB.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Villanova, Washington, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes on 3/10:

• Colorado moves safely into the field with their third win of the season over Kansas State. The Buffs also have wins over Texas and Missouri. Despite a mediocre RPI and poor non-conference losses, those five wins are unmatched among fellow bubble squads. Alabama is now the first team out leading up to their rematch with Georgia tomorrow.
• Connecticut jumps up another seed line with their win over Pittsburgh. The Huskies are now 12-9 vs. Big East competition and tout an outstanding 14 wins vs. the RPI top-100. Pittsburgh’s entire body of work keeps the Panthers as the third #1 seed, but opens up the possibility of Notre Dame passing them in the coming days, a switch that would send Pitt to the Anaheim region.
• UAB’s quarterfinal loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Tournament drops the Blazers out of the automatic bid. Their only RPI top-50 wins are against Marshall, making it extremely unlikely the Blazers will earn a spot in the field. UTEP is now the projected auto bid from CUSA.
• Avoiding upsets kept Georgia and Boston College in the field, but neither win boosted their position on the S-Curve.
• BYU once again played poorly without Brandon Davies against bottom-feeder TCU. A loss in the MWC Tournament and pushes by either Florida or North Carolina in the days ahead could drop the Cougars to a #3 seed.
• Word from Steve Lavin is that D.J. Kennedy suffered a “serious knee injury.” This may affect St. John’s seed if confirmed.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #15 St. John’s 65, Rutgers 63: “St. John’s rode a controversial end to move into the next round of the Big East Tournament, defeating Rutgers 65-63 in a game filled with poor shooting. But the game will be marked by its controversial ending.” (Rumble in the Garden)
• #18 UConn 79, Georgetown 62: “What is left to say? Georgetown fans knew this team was heavily reliant on Chris Wright, media members and statisticians knew it as well. Clearly, after our fourth straight defeat without Wright, both the Georgetown players and coaches know it even better than the rest of us. Connecticut beat the Hoyas 79-62 in a game that was never really in question. Kemba Walker scored 28 points to lead the Huskies, who also got plenty of help from Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier and Jamaal Coombs-McDaniel. Jason Clark and Austin Freeman led the Hoyas with 23 and 20 points respectively, but it wasn’t nearly enough, as the Hoyas were outhustled, outmanned, and outclassed in Madison Square Garden.” (Casual Hoya)

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1. The ending of the St. John’s–Rutgers game has created quite a bit of controversy and within an hour the Big East had already issued a statement that the officials made a mistake on the last play when Justin Brownlee stepped out of bounds with 1.7 seconds left. As Stewart Mandel points out that was just one of several missed calls that went St. John’s way. Even though though the Rutgers coaching staff appeared to be taking the high road after the game we would expect quite a bit of discussion between the school and the Big East over the next week about the officiating during the game.
2. When the NCAA announced its punishment for UConn last month Jim Calhoun was initially quite vocal about his displeasure with the decision although he later took a step back and agreed that ultimately he was responsible for the actions of his program. Despite that admission there were a handful of media members who wondered whether Calhoun would appeal his 3-game Big East suspension. Yesterday, Calhoun finally announced that he would accept the suspension and would not be appealing. Frankly it was probably the best move for Calhoun and UConn as many have stated that it was a relatively light punishment (ignoring the potential effect on his legacy) and an appeal would only distract the team as they head into the NCAA Tournament with what should be a fairly high seed.
3. Coming into this season most people expected the college career of Perry Jones to be relatively short. It turns out that it might be a few weeks shorter than expected as Jones was suspended prior to the team’s game against Oklahoma for taking “impermissible benefits” related to loans his mother was given while Jones was still in high school. Baylor has stated that they plan to appeal the NCAA’s ruling, but even if they get him back it will most likely be for a NIT game as they lost by 17 to the Sooners yesterday and have lost 5 of their last 6 games to close the regular season. Although Jones was a solid contributor the team’s season will likely be considered a failure as Scott Drew was unable to lead the Bears back to the NCAA Tournament after losing to eventual champion Duke last year in the Elite 8 and returning the majority of the starting line-up including LaceDarius Dunn.
4. Mississippi State has been very protective of Renardo Sidney since his infamous brawl in the stands in Maui in December, but he finally opened up in an interview with a local newspaper where he expressed some regret for his behavior and admitted that he needed to get in better shape stating that in high school his playing weight was nearly 60 pounds lighter than where he presently is. While we have heard countless analysts talk about how bad his attitude is we have yet to hear a single one question his ability. If (and it is a big if) Sidney gets his head on straight there is no doubt that he could be a huge force for the Bulldogs and would almost certainly be a top 5 or 10 pick if he were able to put together a solid season next year and stayed out of trouble.
5. We are nearing the end of the regular season which means one thing–award lists. Ok, it means a lot of things (most of them more important than award lists). CNNSI announced their awards yesterday and we are having a hard time arguing with any of their selections. We are sure that some people will argue that a few of the guys in the honorable mention section should be a little higher, but we’re having a hard time seeing any huge omissions.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

Last Four In: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Colorado, USC, VCU, Missouri State.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Connecticut, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Illinois, Gonzaga
• 10 Seeds: Villanova, Washington, Marquette, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama, UAB
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes from 3/8:

• Marquette moved into lock status with their win over Providence on Tuesday night.
• Butler’s defeat of Milwaukee opened up another at-large spot which went to Alabama. They are now the last team in.
• Villanova moved down from a #7 seed to a #10 seed with their fifth straight loss on Tuesday. Their total body of work keeps them safely in the field of 68.

Knockout Tuesday and  living was easy… 

Coming Next:  It gets no easier from here on, as we whittle things down to 68 by Sunday afternoon.

Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.

What’s the ideal team look like? Is it five equally skilled players who share the ball and can all defend and score? A super deep team with ten guys who could all start? Does the ideal team have an alpha dog and a clear hierarchy? A dynamic duo? Maybe, a Big Three? If it’s one superstar and role-players, where does the superstar play? Is he a guard or a forward? One of the things that I enjoy most about basketball is that there is no clear consensus on any of these ideas. There is no ideal. Instead, we have a multitude of competing styles on offense and defense, each individual style perfectly capable of winning a championship.

How Important is the Bench to a Contender?

In 2010, the national championship went to a Duke team with a Big Three approach, focused on the perimeter. In 2009, North Carolina won by balancing a primary post option in Tyler Hansbrough with three skilled guards. The Kansas and Florida championship teams leaned heavily on their skilled big men. The point is that there are successful precedents for most styles, independent of focus and number of focal players. Now, despite these precedents, there is a common idea that a limited number of focal players makes a team more vulnerable. Intuitively, this makes sense: it’s easier to stop one player than many. Likewise, if a team has a single focus, like post scoring, it seems intuitively easier to stop that without having to worry about other threats, like perimeter shooting.

These ideas make sense, but I’m not sure they hold up. Teams with a single focal point, a single powerful talent, have been successful. Notably, in 2003, the indisputably Carmelo Anthony-led Syracuse team won it all. In a similar vein, the 2010 Blue Devils’ lack of reliable post scoring didn’t seem to impede their success. So, at least anecdotally, a lack of balance doesn’t seem to be terribly lethal to a team’s hopes for a championship. But, what about the question of depth? Doesn’t having a deeper team help a team win?

Not necessarily. If we look at bench minutes percentage, a measure of how many total minutes were played by non-starters, we can get at least some measure of a team’s depth. Generally speaking, a deep team will have more minutes played by guys on the bench. Last year, the two teams that played in the final, Duke and Butler, finished 1st and 12th in Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean rankings. Looking at these contenders and the ten teams that finished ranked between them, there was only a single team that was above the median in bench minutes percentage. Every other team was in the bottom half of bench usage, while many, notably Duke and Butler, were in the bottom fifth. Somewhat surprisingly, the one top team that used the bench at an above average rate was Brigham Young, a team that was primarily known for the singular talents of Jimmer Freddette.

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RTC’s Kevin Doyle, author of the weekly column, The Other 26, and the Patriot League Correspondent, will be providing conference tournament previews for all non-BCS conferences.

With three conference tournaments concluding last night, it is only appropriate that five more get underway today. Conference USA and the Southland Conference are two of the most balanced leagues in the nation, while the WAC and Mountain West were just the opposite as they were dominated at the top. The SWAC is always a bit of a mystery come Championship Week and tournament time, but Texas Southern is the class of the league this year and will no doubt do their best to bring respect to the league if they are fortunate enough to advance to the Dance.

Conference USA

The Favorite: UAB won the regular season title with a 12-4 record, but that means very little in the ultra competitive CUSA this season as five teams are just behind the Blazers. There is something to be said though about UAB’s strong play down the stretch and the steady play of Jamarr Sanders and Cameron Moore. These reasons alone amidst several injuries that Mike Davis‘ club has overcome makes UAB the slight favorite over the rest of the bunch.

Dark Horse: Southern Mississippi is one the teams that are nipping at UAB’s heels. Although they fell in their last three games of the regular season, Larry Eustachy’s squad proved throughout the year they can beat anyone in the conference. Having Gary Flowers roam around the pain never hurts either.

Who’s Hot: UAB has won their last four games and seven of eight heading into the tournament. As well as UAB is playing, it would be very easy for that to stop on a dime. Throughout each week during the conference schedule, it appeared that one team in CUSA was emerging as the top dog, but they would quickly fade. Can UAB keep their streak going all the way into the NCAA Tournament?

Player to Watch: Papa Dia, Southern Methodist’s senior forward all the way from Senegal, is enjoying the best season of his career as he is averaging 18.5 points and 9 rebounds a game. In each of the previous three seasons, SMU has been below .500; Dia and his teammates clearly have something to prove in this tournament.

First-Round Upset:  Central Florida over East Carolina. UCF was the nation’s favorite story in the early going as they jumped out to a 14-0 record with wins over Florida, Miami (FL), and Princeton. The Knights then went onto lose eight straight games, thus proving that their early success was a fluke. Now, UCF has won five of seven games and if they can regain that success they had in those 14 games, a victory over East Carolina is absolutely within reach.

How’d They Fare? After going 7-9 in the conference, Houston caught fire in the tournament to surprise everyone by winning the title. In doing so, the Cougars stole a bid from a team on the bubble and earned a #13 seed in the Tournament where they lost to Maryland 89-77. UTEP—the team Houston beat to advance onward—was trounced by Butler as a #12 seed.

Interesting Fact: The last team to win an NCAA Tournament game hailing from Conference USA not named Memphis was Louisville in the 2005 Tournament. The ‘Ville advanced all the way to the Final Four that year where they lost to Illinois 57-52 in the semifinals. Both UAB and Cincinnati also won Tournament games that year.

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Game #178: RTC is in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament for the second consecutive year. This week’s coverage from Sprint Center begins with an opening round matchup between bubbling Colorado and Iowa State.

The season comes down to this week for Tad Boyle’s Colorado Buffaloes. With a non-con schedule bereft of quality wins, Colorado’s been in a game of catch-up since conference play tipped off. Some big victories (Texas, Missouri and a sweep of Kansas State) made the statement that they can get it done, but losses to Iowa State and Baylor could leave the Buffalo faithful sweating it out on Sunday unless their team can make some noise this week. Guard Alec Burks, playing in front of a hometown crowd, has plenty of motivation to carry the Buffs to the Big Dance in its final season as a Big 12 member.  Iowa State, meanwhile, stumbled through conference play after starting 13-2 in Fred Hoiberg’s first go-round at the helm, but closed out the regular season on a high note. The Cyclones won two of its last three, including a 95-90 win over Colorado in the final week of the season, and are anxious to duplicate their success. Grab a beverage, some snacks, and pull up a seat for RTC Live!

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