The Lede.  What a wild, wild President’s Day weekend it was.  The second-, third-, and fourth-ranked teams all took a loss over the weekend to join #1 Kansas  from the previous Monday night, the first time that such a thing had happened in a little over seven years.  BracketBusters was in full effect across the land, and although there were some interesting games during the event, only a couple of teams actually helped themselves.  Over the three days, we saw RTCs ranging from relaxed ambivalence to firecracker intensity, another bizarre diatribe from Jim Boeheim, and a number of great games befitting the time of the season where so much is on the line.  Let’s jump in…

Note: For our BGTD coverage from Saturday, please see these three posts examining the early games, the late afternoon/evening games, and the BracketBuster games.

No, That's Not the Actual Ref Screaming Amidst the Mayhem... (AP/N. Harnik)

Your Watercooler Moment.  1, 2, 3, 4… The last time that the top four teams in the national polls lost in the same week of action, Barack Obama was an unknown state senator in Illinois and Saddam Hussein was hiding in a hole in somebody’s backyard.  It was November 2003, and the names Bieber, Gaga and Twitter had no meaning to anybody yet, but UConn, Duke, Michigan State and Arizona each dropped a game over Thanksgiving week that year and the result was a significant re-ordering of the poll.  The big difference this time around is that we’re two weeks from the end of the season as opposed to two weeks from the start, so the likelihood of four established teams dropping games over the same week was far more unlikely.  So what happened, exactly?

We already knew that #1 Kansas lost to K-State in rough-and-tumble fashion last Monday.  But the next three teams waited until the weekend to join the polling bloodbath. It began on Saturday with the first game of the day — Steve Lavin’s rejuvenated and tough-as-nails St. John’s program took down #4 Pittsburgh on the back of Dwight Hardy’s 19 points and his tap dance routine along the baseline to win the game.  It was the cherry on top of the sundae in a season of breakthroughs for the Red Storm program, and as you can see below, Madison Square Garden has become something more than just the place where Amare and (now) Melo play.

A little later Saturday afternoon, #2 Texas was in trouble at Nebraska late when its vaunted defense and some brain-farts on the part of the Huskers led to a ridiculous 12-1 in a span of thirty-four seconds to tie the game in the final minute, 65-all.  What appeared to be a major meltdown in Lincoln, though, turned to bedlam as Doc Sadler’s team regained its composure enough to hit their FTs down the stretch and notch possibly their biggest win in years.  UT is more than its individuals, but when Jordan Hamilton struggles as he did on Saturday (3-16 FG), the Horns have trouble putting enough points on the board against quality teams.  With the win, Nebraska has vaulted itself back onto the bubble — with a favorable schedule down the stretch, the Huskers could potentially get back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in thirteen seasons.  Nice RTC, fellas.

On Sunday it was Ohio State’s turn to again do battle with a Big Ten road crowd and team dead set on knocking off the much-hyped Buckeyes.  Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore ensured that the home crowd got what they paid for, as the senior guard went Kemba/Jimmer on the Big Ten leaders, scoring in just about every possible way en route to a superb 38/4/5 asst afternoon on 13-18 shooting.  His 13-point stretch over the last three-plus minutes of the first half was as impressive an offensive display as we’ve seen all season, punctuated by an acrobatic circus shot layup (see below) that told the viewers that this was going to be his game.  Talk has increased about Purdue as a legitimate Final Four contender after wins over OSU and Wisconsin last week, but the Boilermakers are an excellent home team.  We’re not as sold on Matt Painter’s team outside the friendly confines of Mackey Arena.

There you have it.  Three of the top four losing over the weekend, and nobody having a clue as to how to rank the top six today.  The AP Poll had six different teams receiving #1 votes, while the ESPN/Coaches had five.  Even the RTC poll, consisting of only six voters, had four different teams ranked at the top.  The takeaway from this weekend, and really, much of the season, is that there are a bunch of really good teams but certainly no great ones.  The NCAA Tournament could look a lot more like the 1997 (Arizona), 2003 (Syracuse), or 2006 (Florida) versions given this season’s continuing and obvious level of parity.

Your Watercooler Moment, Pt. II.  Another Diatribe From Jim Boeheim.  Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim must really be frustrated with his team this season.  The smiles and self-knowing mockery that he engaged with the media last season appears to have migrated south with the rest of the snowbirds.  After tonight’s win (note we said “win”) at Villanova, Boeheim again lashed out at the media for its stupid questions and representations about his team. Mike Miller at MSNBC has the goods here (via Soft Pretzel Logic), and we’re a little bit at a loss ourselves as to why Boeheim is acting like such a prima donna lately.  With respect to the questions about “toughening” up one’s team, he can choose to not believe in such a thing but we dare say that he probably does.  Most coaches who have been doing this for as long as he has would probably believe there’s real team-building value in gutting out close wins ten times even if you end up losing a similarly-situated game in the postseason.  We weren’t at the presser in Philadelphia tonight, but it sounded like someone arguing for the sake of being argumentative.  Lighten up, Jim — the university pays you a LOT of money to answer a few minutes of questions after each game, not to berate people and make them feel stupid for doing their jobs.

This Weekend’s Quick Hits…

• Read the rest of this entry »

In a somewhat unusual move, St. Mary’s announced earlier today that it had added a game at home against Weber State to its regular season schedule. The game, which is scheduled to take place on March 11th, occurs after the West Coast Conference Tournament is finished and before the NCAA Tournament and NIT start. More importantly, it will be played before Selection Sunday, which is on March 13th, and would be factored into both teams’ NCAA Tournament resumes. The addition of an extra game on the Friday before Selection Sunday is nothing new to the Gaels who did something similar back in 2009, when they played Eastern Washington in a game that was added to their schedule just a week earlier after an embarrassing loss to rival Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament. Operating under the assumption that the Selection Committee would see just how good they were when Patty Mills played, the Gaels won by 20. Unfortunately for Mills and SMC, it wasn’t enough to sway the Selection Committee, which relegated St. Mary’s to the NIT where they lost in the quarterfinals.

St. Mary's Seeks to Recapture This Feeling in March (AP/E. Amendola)

Although many observers will claim that this is a similar last-minute attempt by the Gaels to sway Committee members back to their side after they lost back-to-back games against San Diego and Utah State, St. Mary’s SID Richard Kilwein says that is not the case. Instead, he stated that Weber State approached St. Mary’s approximately six weeks ago with an offer for the extra game as both teams had not reached the maximum number of regular season games allowed by the NCAA. Given the long layoff between the end of the WCC Tournament and postseason play, St. Mary’s coach Randy Bennett agreed to the game and a deal was reached late last week. Also, unlike last time, this game will be no cakewalk for the Gaels. In 2009, the Eastern Washington team that they scheduled was 12-17 coming into the game and had failed to even qualify for the Big Sky Conference Tournament. Although this year’s Weber State team has failed to live up to high preseason expectations, they still are a solid opponent at 15-10 overall and 9-4 in the Big Sky, with close losses against BYU (by six points) and at Utah State (by 12 points in a game that was closer than the final margin indicates). If St. Mary’s were to win this game it would certainly provide at least a small boost to their resume before the Selection Committee makes its final decision over the ensuing weekend.

[Update: There is some speculation that Weber State added this game to try to get a medical redshirt for its star point guard Damian Lillard who has only played in 10 games this season. To qualify Lillard would need to have played in fewer than 30% of the team’s games so if Lillard did not play another game this season the Wildcats would need to play 34 games to make him eligible. They are currently scheduled to play 29 regular season games including this one and at most could play in 3 conference tournament games, which would still leave them 2 games short of that goal although they could meet that target if they qualified for one of about a dozen postseason tournaments.]

[Re-Update: It looks like this game allows Weber State to get a medical redshirt for Damian Lillard who broke his foot earlier this season. Our apologies for the earlier incorrect update. The lesson here is never trust an ESPN box score.]

Owen Kemp of Rock Chalk Talk and SB Nation Kansas City is the RTC Correspondent for the Big 12 Conference.

A Look Back

Last  week’s Big 12 schedule ended up riddled in upsets, and rather than the league providing some clarity as the NCAA Tournament approaches, the waters just got a little muddier.

The week started with a Valentine’s Day Big Monday matchup between the Kansas State Wildcats and the newly-anointed #1 Kansas Jayhawks in Manhattan.  Headed into the game, the Wildcats were in desperate need of a statement win headed toward the tourney, while the Jayhawks talked about embracing the target that comes with being named #1. The game turned out to be all Kansas State, as senior guard Jacob Pullen exploded for a career-high 38 points and the Wildcats dominated a Jayhawk team that looked complacent from the start.

Tuesday night went as expected as the Texas Tech Red Raiders lost in Columbia in a high-scoring affair against the Tigers.  The Tech effort actually provided one of the closer games for the Tigers at home this year, but the eight-point loss was just another bump in the road for a Tech team that hasn’t had much in the way of positive news this season.

On Wednesday, the Texas Longhorns took to the court knowing that taking care of business in two very winnable games during the week likely meant a top ranking to start the following week.  Against Oklahoma State in Austin, the Longhorns cruised and the Cowboys dropped to 4-7 in the conference likely dropping them off the bubble and into the group of Big 12 teams that will be NIT-bound come March.

Texas A&M turned away an Iowa State team still looking for win number two in conference play and Nebraska got a big road win in Norman over the Sooners. The win moved the Huskers to 5-6 in the conference and in the conversation with Kansas State and Colorado as a potential league representative in the tourney.  It’s definitely a bit of a reach, but in a year where college basketball is full of parity, it’s not out of the question.

Saturday tipped off with the Jayhawks rebounding from their loss to Kansas State with a blowout win over Colorado and Missouri getting their first conference road win in Ames over the Cyclones.  The big story in the early going, however, was the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Doc Sadler and the Huskers pulled off the second big time upset of the week in conference play as they knocked off the Longhorns in a thriller in Lincoln.  The Huskers used a pesky defense and rode the energy of the home crowd to the upset and with a statement win put themselves firmly in the conversation as a fringe bubble team.

Kansas State continued their strong play of late with big win at home over the Sooners, while A&M continued to survive winning by one point over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Besides the Longhorn upset, another game provided a mild upset when Texas Tech went into Waco and knocked off the Baylor Bears.  Baylor now sits 6-6 in the conference with an identical record to Nebraska and Kansas State.  The biggest concern for Baylor has to be the lack of any quality wins.  In a little over a week, Baylor has gone from a team that looked to be improving and moving toward lock status, to a team sitting on the brink.  If the tourney started today Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Nebraska would be your top six teams with Baylor checking in at number seven.  That most likely doesn’t get them in.

Power Rankings

Quick Disclaimer: Power rankings are not meant to be a poll.  They are meant to reflect who is playing the best basketball at a given time.

1. Texas (23-4, 11-1) – Texas dropped one on the road in Lincoln, but they retain the top spot because it was a game where they fought for 40 minutes and it just wasn’t their day.
2. Kansas (25-2, 11-1) – Kansas was manhandled in Manhattan and didn’t put up much of a fight.  They looked great on Saturday at home against a mediocre opponent, but the manner of the loss on Monday keeps them at #2.
3. Texas A&M (11-5, 8-4) – A&M continues to win albeit by a very slim margin.  Still the Aggies have won on the road more often than the Tigers and that puts them at #3 for now.
4. Missouri Tigers (21-6, 7-5) – Two wins this week for the Tigers and their first conference road win against last place Iowa State.  That doesn’t necessarily change the concern over the Tigers’ play away from Columbia, but it’s a start.
5. Kansas State (18-9, 6-6) – The Wildcats were on the ropes headed into the week, but after a win over # 1 Kansas, they now seem firmly in control of their NCAA Tournament hopes. K-State is #5 right now in the conference if the tournament selection show were today.
6. Nebraska (18-8, 6-6) – A big win over Texas and the Huskers now sit 6-6 with a real chance to play themselves into the NCAA Tournament.  Doc Sadler plays a tough physical defensive game and it’s winning basketball games in Lincoln.
7. Baylor (17-9, 6-6) – Baylor losing to Texas Tech at home is a pretty big blow at this point.  The Bears can’t claim any marquee wins and they have more “bad” losses than Kansas State and Nebraska.
8. Colorado (16-11, 5-7 Big 12) – Colorado was in a position to make a play, but the schedule isn’t kind down the stretch.  Right now, they are probably a longshot tourney team, but they’ll have to run the table.
9. Oklahoma State (16-10, 4-8) The Cowboys can’t seem to catch a break and continue to lose close games in tough situations.  Help is on the way in Stillwater, but this year has been a struggle.
10. Texas Tech (12-15, 4-8) – Tech got a pretty nice win on the road in Waco this week and actually proved pretty competitive in Columbia which is no easy task.  One tick up in the power polls as a result.
11. Oklahoma (12-14, 4-8) – Two losses for the Sooners this week and they drop from a potential middle tier Big 12 team back to the bottom.
12. Iowa State (14-13, 1-11 Big 12) – Things just aren’t getting any better in Ames.  It’s a long season when you have such a lean bench.

A Look Ahead

• Monday brings another Big Monday in Lawrence as Kansas welcomes the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Bill Self has had his struggles against his alma mater, and at this point, the role of spoiler is all the Cowboys have to play for.
• Tuesday night, Texas will play host to the Iowa State Cyclones in Austin in their first game since losing to the Huskers in Lincoln.  The Longhorns are still playing for the outright conference title and with four losses they are the team with the most losses that is still being mentioned in terms of a potential number one seed.
• Wednesday night, Kansas State heads to Lincoln in a game that means a great deal for Nebraska, but  also has implications for the Wildcats as well.  While most believe Kansas State is fairly secure as a fifth Big 12 team in the tournament a win helps improve their seeding while a win for Nebraska is another big feather in the cap of Doc Sadler as he looks to take the Cornhuskers to the tourney in their final year in the Big 12.
• Wednesday night games also include Oklahoma heading to Texas A&M, Colorado heading to Lubbock and the unpredictable but talented Baylor Bears traveling to Columbia where the Tigers are undefeated on the season.
• Saturday once again sees all 12 teams in action with the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns going on the road in games they are expected to win against Oklahoma and Colorado, respectively.  The Longhorn trip to Boulder is probably the more dangerous of the two as the Buffs have NBA talent.  The big question will be whether or not they can defend well enough to slow the Longhorns.
• Missouri travels to Manhattan for a tough contest against K-State in a matchup that is slowly growing into a rivalry.  While neither team hates the other in the way they hate Kansas, this is a game that has become competitive and relevant in recent years.
• Elsewhere, Texas A&M heads to Waco for a game against Baylor.  Texas Tech and Oklahoma State square off in Stillwater in a game that holds little significance.  And lastly Nebraska gets another chance to boost the resume when they travel to Iowa State with a chance at another conference road win against the Cyclones.

Player of the Year Watch

With two weeks to go, this is down to a three-man race.   Two players with teams at the top and one player who’s overcome his fair share of struggle and become a better player and leader for it.

Power Ranking Style and Based on Conference Play

1. Jordan Hamilton – (17.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG): Not a great week for Hamilton, but he’s still the best player on the best team in the conference.
2. Marcus Morris, Kansas – (18.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG): Statistically, Morris is still impressive, and he’s by far the most versatile.  But will the perception that he lacks leadership hurt his chances?
3. Jacob Pullen, Kansas State – (21.2 PPG, 3.6 APG): Pullen exploded on Monday against Kansas with 38 points, but what was even more impressive is how he was able to step back and elevate others around him in the second half while Kansas State kept their foot firmly on the gas.  Pullen has put himself firmly back in the conversation for the postseason award.

Ohio State remains at #1, but it was far from unanimous as a total of four teams—the Buckeyes, Duke, Pittsburgh, and San Diego State—received votes for the top spot. Further down in the poll, Steve Lavin has St. John’s in the poll after a big win over Pittsburgh.  QnD analysis after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Memphis, VCU.
  
• Last Four Out: Butler, Colorado State, Richmond, Michigan.
• Next Four Out: Penn State, UAB, Nebraska, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas.
• 2 Seeds: BYU, Duke, San Diego State, Notre Dame.
• 3 Seeds: Georgetown, Purdue, Florida, Connecticut.
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Villanova.

• Read the rest of this entry »

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

With only two weeks left in the regular season, every game now becomes critical. Syracuse and Villanova battle it out tonight in Philly, trying to position themselves for a double-bye in the Big East Tournament. In Lawrence, a shorthanded Kansas team will look to keep rolling against Oklahoma State. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

#20 Syracuse @ #13 Villanova – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

The Orange Have To Limit How Many Slices They Allow Fisher To Make In That Zone

A Syracuse loss tonight would be their seventh in Big East play, likely knocking them out of contention for a double-bye at Madison Square Garden next month. If that happens, the Orange would still have to fight with a host of teams to avoid playing on Tuesday in the conference tournament. Villanova’s hopes would obviously be damaged with a loss as well, plus they have a tough remaining schedule. Whatever happens the rest of the way in the Big East, three teams with NCAA Tournament hopes will be playing on day one of the conference tournament and would have to win five games in five days to take the title. Read the rest of this entry »

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #11 Purdue 76, #1 Ohio State 63: “In the last week, Purdue took down Wisconsin and Ohio State…back to back. The number 2 and 10 teams in the nation. Sure, they were at home, but that’s where you must dominate. Ask MSU or Illinois how much they’d like to be unbeaten at home this year and how hard it is to accomplish.” (Boiled Sports or Eleven Warriors)
• Nebraska 70, #2 Texas 67: “The march toward a 16-0 conference mark is over as the No. 2/3 Texas Longhorns fall, 70-67, to the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Despite a furious rally in the final three minutes of the game, aided by mindless Nebraska fouls, Texas could never overcome the lead they relinquished early in the second half. The Huskers dominated the glass from start to finish, crippled the Texas defense with dribble penetration, and limited the Texas offense by sagging four or five players in the paint and daring the Longhorns to score from the perimeter. In a game that looked eerily similar to the December loss at Southern Cal, Texas was thoroughly worked physically, especially in the low post. The Nebraska size gave the ‘Horns fits, got most of the Texas frontcourt into foul trouble, and forced Rick Barnes to play some odd lineups, mostly in the first half.” (Burnt Orange Nation)
• #3 Kansas 89, Colorado 63: “Markieff Morris led the Jayhawks with 26 points and 16 rebounds including 9 on the offensive end. It was one of the best performances of his career and Colorado simply had no answer on the interior.” (Rock Chalk Talk: Part 1 and Part 2)

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Love him or hate him, you have to admit that he was never boring, and the kid could fill it. On Sunday, Maryland honored former star (and current Memphis Grizzly) Greivis Vasquez by raising his number up to the Comcast Center rafters. And of course you know he loved getting another jab in on North Carolina, as seen in the report from the Baltimore Sun’s Tracking the Terps blog; when asked about how he thought Maryland would do in their last five regular season games, Vasquez predicted five wins, adding, “I think we can beat UNC at UNC anytime.”
2. According to the Kansas City Star, Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen is a veritable bracket expert, often scouring the web for the latest bracket predictions and news. While making sure to note that he really just hopes his Wildcats get into The Dance, he projects KSU as a six-seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. We don’t know if Jacob is familiar with the work of RTC bracketologist-in-residence Zach Hayes, but we’ll make sure Pullen has Zach’s e-mail address in the event that he wants to lobby for his Wildcats or offer Zach a few choice words, heh heh. We’ll see where ZH has Kansas State (if anywhere) in his next bracket projection later today. In last week’s edition, KSU was one of the last four out, but it was released before the Wildcats’ win over Kansas on Monday night.
3. You probably remember how full Cornell’s bandwagon got last year as the Big Red rolled to a 29-5 record, a 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament (way, way too low), and a Sweet 16 appearance. That was their third straight bid to the Tournament, a trifecta of appearances that came after a 20-year drought. Harvard is not impressed. The Crimson (20-4, 9-1) are a half game up on Princeton in the Ivy League standings with four games to play — remember, there’s no post-season tournament for the Ancient Eight, so the auto-bid goes to the regular season champ — and all that’s at stake for Tommy Amaker’s team is the program’s first NCAA bid…in 65 years. The last game on their schedule? Princeton. March 5th.
4. You think Jerry Tarkanian, at age 80, has tempered his ire toward the NCAA with the passage of time? Right. You figure that $2.5 million dollar settlement check he received from them in 1998 diluted his anger? Think again. On Friday at the Palms in Vegas, HBO premiered a documentary about Tark’s UNLV days, and it’s obvious from his post-screening comments that this is one grudge he’ll never put down. He gets in some priceless digs (the strip club comment is hilarious) in this Tim Dahlberg/AP article we caught in the New York Times.
5. Remember that play from Tuesday’s Michigan State vs Ohio State game where Aaron Craft ran down that errant Spartan pass that went into the backcourt, gathered it before it went out of bounds, then took it up strong for the and-one? A few seconds after it happened, we tweeted that that single effort told you a lot of what you needed to know about the impressive Ohio State freshman. Well, we were wrong. This article from the Akron Beacon Journal tells you even more. His sections in that “Party In the USA” viral video brought to mind the voice of the great Ralph Wiggum (full disclosure: HLN’s Rafer Weigel said that before we did), but Craft’s evidently got skills in about fourteen other sports…and that’s not counting what sounds like some serious expertise on the dance floor [h/t: Coach Jeff Boals].

Bucky Dent is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun Conference.

A Look Back

• Belmont Clinches: By knocking off East Tennessee State, 68-58, Thursday night in Nashville, the Bruins clinched the regular season title and the top seed for next month‘s conference tournament in Macon, Georgia. Belmont also gained no worse than an automatic bid to the NIT should it somehow stumble in Macon, which looks doubtful. Easily the deepest, most physical and most talented team in the A-Sun, the Bruins could face tough semifinal and championship challenges in Macon but also appear well-equipped to handle them. Of course, weird things happen in March.
• Bear Essentials: Back on January 31, Mercer senior forward Brandon Moore went down for the season with a torn ACL, joining teammate Jeff Smith on the sidelines. Instead of going back to their Georgia cave and whimpering in pain for the season’s remainder, though, the Bears fought back. Granted, a schedule larded with home games against A-Sun slugs didn’t hurt, but give Mercer credit for ripping off four straight wins and improving to 9-7 in the league, clinching a spot in the conference tournament. Bob Hoffman probably deserves a few Coach of the Year votes for this little surge.
• Player of the Week: Mike Smith, East Tennessee State: Smith won the award for the fourth time, the most in recent A-Sun history, by averaging 25 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists in homecourt wins over Jacksonville and North Florida. The clear favorite for A-Sun Player of the Year, Smith is in the league’s top five in scoring and rebounding. Just missing the gold medal were Campbell’s Eric Griffin, who scored 22.5 points per contest against Lipscomb and Belmont last week, and Markeith Cummings of Kennesaw State, who rattled off three 30-point games in a four-game span to fuel the Owls’ first extended burst of competence this year.

Power Rankings

1. Belmont (24-4, 16-1)
Next Week: 2/19 vs. USC Upstate, 2/24 at Mercer
These guys are good. How good? Consider that they can fall behind North Florida by 11 with six an a half minutes left, as they did earlier this month in arguably their worst game of the season, and still rip off a 20-2 run to steal a 69-67 win. The Bruins have gotten everyone’s best shot for most of the conference season and have only slipped up once — in the second half of a January 25 loss at Lipscomb. Stat geek alert: Guard Kerron Johnson ranks sixth in Division-I in steal percentage (percentage of possessions that a player notches a steal while in the game) according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. On most teams, Johnson would start. Here, he’s backing up ultra-steady Drew Hanlen.

2. East Tennessee State (19-10, 14-4)
Next Week: 2/19 at Florida Gulf Coast, 2/24 at Campbell
Remember two weeks ago when we warned that the Buccaneers could slip up on their road trip to Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson and you probably guffawed? That was before they somehow didn’t score in the last 5 minutes, 38 seconds and blew an 11-point lead in a brutal 55-54 loss at Stetson. While coach Murry Bartow was correct in nothing that the game affected nothing as far as the team’s NCAA hopes, since this league will only get one bid, it might keep this team from beating out the Big East’s 13th place team for a spot in the CBI or collegeinsiders.com tourney. That’s why ETSU couldn’t afford to take that loss.

3. Jacksonville (17-8, 11-5)
Next week: 2/18 vs. Kennesaw State, 2/20 vs. Mercer, 2/24 at Florida Gulf Coast
A third-place team might normally rate some consideration for the conference tournament. Not so with the Dolphins, who are 0-4 against the league’s big boys — Belmont and ETSU — with an average defeat margin of nearly 16 points. What that says is that this team beats the people it should and simply doesn’t have enough height or offensive punch to overcome the superior foes. Jacksonville’s only chance of winning the A-Sun tourney is to have one of the big boys lose along the way and hope that when they have to play the other that it either has a hot-shooting game or the other team can’t find the bucket.

4. Lipscomb (16-10, 11-6)
Next Week: 2/19 vs. East Tennessee State, 2/24 at Kennesaw State
Senior guard Josh Slater had one of the season‘s unique triple-doubles in a Thursday night win over USC Upstate, finishing with ten points, 12 assists and ten steals. It was the first triple-double in the Bisons’ Division-I era and the first time any A-Sun player notched 10 steals in a game against a Division-I foe since 1997. Lipscomb’s task is to build momentum for the conference tournament, when it might earn a third crack at Belmont in the semifinals. One gets the feeling that might be the only way the Bruins don’t win the A-Sun tourney.

5. Mercer: (12-15, 9-7)
Next Week: 2/18 at North Florida, 2/20 at Jacksonville, 2/24 vs. Belmont
Ball control has been the Bears‘ strength during their unexpected run into the league‘s middle of the back. In their last seven games, they are averaging just nine turnovers per game and have had four games with fewer than ten, including a six-turnover performance in Tuesday night‘s 57-55 win over Kennesaw State. It’s helped that senior guard Mark Hall, who’s not been known as a scorer in his Mercer career, has suddenly started draining three-pointers as though he were former Bear great James Florence. Hall drilled five in a Feb. 10 OT win over Stetson and added three against Kennesaw State.

6. North Florida: (10-17, 7-9)
Next Week: 2/18 vs. Mercer, 2/20 vs. Kennesaw State, 2/24 at Stetson
Guard Parker Smith is the nation‘s top scorer among players who haven‘t started a game, but he‘s been locked in a deep, dark forest lately. Since dropping 30 points on Belmont February 5, he’s not been able to ignite this team off the bench, going 2-for-13 in a Sunday loss at East Tennessee State. Coach Matthew Driscoll has been more concerned with Smith’s performance in other areas, feeling that the sophomore isn’t doing enough on the defensive end. As presently constructed, the Ospreys aren’t good enough to win many games unless all their key players are contributing.

7. Kennesaw State (8-18, 6-10)
Next week: 2/18 at Jacksonville, 2/20 at North Florida, 2/24 vs. Lipscomb
Welcome to the season, Owls. What took you so long? Finally, this team has decided to play hard on defense and share the ball on offense, much as folks expected they could in preseason. While it might not be enough to get them a decent seed in the A-Sun tourney, they could be a tough out for somebody in the first round. Sophomore Markeith Cummings has been arguably the league’s hottest player besides Smith, scoring 30 points in three of his last four games. Forward LaDaris Green has channeled his inner Kenneth Faried with five straight double-doubles.

8. Campbell (12-15, 6-11)
Next week: 2/19 at Florida Gulf Coast, 2/24 vs. East Tennessee State
Indulging in a farewell swipe at the A-Sun, Camels coach Robbie Laing said one reason his team is struggling is because they don‘t have a travel partner and therefore always catch fresh teams, such as when they lost 78-57 to Belmont February 12 by allowing the last 16 points. Another reason Campbell is struggling is its inability to consistently score the ball as it’s been held under 70 points in 12 of its 17 conference games. While the recent absence of guard Lorne Merthie (knee) hasn’t helped, the simple truth is this team hasn’t played very well since the middle of December.

9. Stetson: (7-21, 5-12)
Next week: 2/21 at Florida Gulf Coast, 2/24 vs. North Florida
Thursday night‘s 64-61 home loss to Campbell was a gut punch for the Hatters, which are in ninth place in the league and would miss the conference tournament if it started tomorrow. Officially a game behind the Camels, Stetson was swept in the season series, so it would lose any tiebreaker. Turnovers and poor foul shooting have hampered it in many of the close losses they’ve had lately. Those are things young teams traditionally struggle with and they have bitten the Hatters hard.

10. Florida Gulf Coast: (6-19, 3-12)
Next week: 2/19 vs. Campbell, 2/21 vs. Stetson
The Eagles‘ season is down to five games as they‘re ineligible for the conference tournament. All they can do is serve as spoiler for the likes of the Camels and Hatters, who visit Ft. Myers in the league’s riveting battle for eighth place and the last spot in the A-Sun tourney. One piece of good news for FGCU is that underclassmen such as Anthony Banks, Christophe Varidel and Chase Fieler have led the team in scoring in 14 of the last 15 games. The January departure of Reed Baker might have been the best thing to happen to this team because Varidel wouldn’t have gotten enough playing time to average 16.7 points per game in the last 13 games had Baker stuck around.

11. USC Upstate: (4-23, 3-14)
Next Week: 2/19 at Belmont
Coach Eddie Payne finally blew his stack after a listless loss to North Florida February 11, saying his team lacked leadership and didn‘t know how to win. If that remark was designed to light a fire under his young squad, it didn‘t work, as it promptly lost to Jacksonville and Lipscomb by an average of 14.5 points. The one ray of sunshine in Spartanburg has been the recent play of Ricardo Glenn, who had 16 points and nine rebounds in a 16-minute burst of excellence against Jacksonville. Glenn, Torrey Craig and Babatunde Olumuyiwa will comprise one of the league’s top frontcourts in 2012-13.

Playing the Percentages

Every week, we‘ll take a look at an intriguing stat around the conference and decide fluke or trend. This week, we zero in on Kennesaw State sophomore LaDaris Green, who has recorded five consecutive double-doubles, including a 14-point, 13-rebound effort at Mercer Tuesday night. The verdict is trend. The 6’9 Green is active enough and is playing the most consistent basketball of a career which still has two-plus years left. As he matures and gets stronger, he should only improve.

A Look Ahead

Belmont has won the league and ETSU will likely finish second, but there‘s still much at stake in terms of momentum and positioning as A-Sun teams head down the homestretch.

• Mercer could still catch Lipscomb for fourth place if it wins out, including a home game next week with the Bisons. As long as they don’t slip out of fifth, though, the Bears will likely host Lipscomb in the A-Sun quarterfinals March 3.
• Campbell has a chance to seal a spot in the conference tournament despite its recent struggles. Its schedule (at Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, USC Upstate) looks favorable and it has a tiebreaker on ninth place Stetson.
• Kennesaw State has a brutal ending to its regular season (at Jacksonville, at North Florida, Lipscomb, Belmont). The Owls could play decently and lose all four, and if they do, it could open the door for Stetson to beat them out for the last spot.
• Belmont tries to keep its momentum going for the A-Sun tourney as it hosts USC Upstate Saturday night before a regular season-ending road trip to Georgia, where it plays Mercer and Kennesaw State.

Since we did a separate BracketBusters BGTD today, we’re combining the late afternoon and evening analyses into one post here.

• Disappointing Weekend Coverage.  ESPN is excluded from this complaint, as the WWL’s wall-to-wall coverage of college basketball makes us very happy from November through March.  But folks, it’s three weeks from Selection Sunday — why aren’t there more networks showing games; and why aren’t there more marquee matchups on a weekend so close to the end of the season?  Granted, Michigan State-Illinois looked great on paper a few months ago, but the schedule today was by and large fairly weak.  If you’re looking for Exhibit A as to why the NFL wants to take over the entire month of February as well, this is it — CBS did a split-coverage game for two hours this afternoon, while none of the other broadcast networks showed anything (why did ABC completely give on hoops?).  Throw in a bunch of ranked teams playing unranked teams today, and you have a sports weekend where college hoops should dominate conversation, except that there’s not much left to discuss than the occasional upset.
• It’s Not Just St. John’s.  It was an entertaining game in Syracuse this afternoon, with the Orange escaping against an increasingly gritty and tough Rutgers squad led by first-year coach Mike Rice.  With the recruiting Rice is doing in northern Jersey along with the renaissance going on across the Hudson River at St. John’s, New York City area basketball may have finally turned the corner after what seems like a million  years.  SJU is clearly leading the charge with its team of experienced players, but we love the hustle, heart and discipline exhibited by Rice’s players.  They utilized an 11-2 run in crunch time in the Dome to force the Orange back onto its heels, something that simply would not have happened in previous years.  After today’s overtime loss, the Scarlet Knights are only 4-10 in Big East play, but they’ve been competitive in nearly all of those Ls and the close win over Villanova along with today’s close defeat shows us that it’s only a matter of time before Rice’s troops figure it out and cause major problems for the rest of the Big East.
• Sparty Can’t Be Killed.  As soon as you think the Spartans are dead, they give us another reason to think they still have life.  And life they have after tonight’s ugly yet important win over Illinois on ESPN Gameday.  They did it with an old Izzo standby, strong defense, holding the Illini backcourt to 12-37 shooting from the field.  This was pretty much a must-win for Michigan State, and with four games left (two home; two away), they’ll have more opportunities to improve their resume.  Games at Minnesota and home against Purdue will be tough, but the Gophers are reeling and two other games against Iowa and at Michigan will necessarily have to be victories.  Our gut still says that MSU will do enough to get into March Madness, but this season has been one surprise after another with these guys.
• Utah State Legitimizes Itself. Much had been written about Utah State’s lack of quality wins this season, but the Aggies really only had one bad loss coming into tonight’s game at St. Mary’s (@ Idaho).  They made sure to leave with the one thing they didn’t have, though, thanks in large part to the forceful inside play of Tai Wesley and his 22/11 night.  During the first half of this game, it appeared that St. Mary’s was going to go on a patented three-point-fueled run led by Mickey McConnell and his thirty-footers, but USU came out in the second half with a clear strategy to a) pound the ball inside; and b) cut off McConnell’s looks.  In doing both, the Aggies went on a huge 27-7 run to start the half and effectively finished the game with ease.  They also put to rest any talk of the bubble for this team, now sitting at 25-3 with three WAC games remaining.  St. Mary’s has Gonzaga and Portland coming to town next week, and the truth is that the Gaels need to win these games.  Their quality wins consist of St. John’s (looking better and better) and Gonzaga.  That’s not much to hang your hat on if you crash and burn down the stretch.
• Forget the Other Dunk Contest.  Speaking of the SMC-USS game, and then there was this…  say hello to Brady Jardine!