On Selection Sunday, the brackets were revealed and five different ACC teams found themselves dancing. Poor Miami didn’t make the cut, but when all you have to point to is a win against Duke and Florida State, it’s hard to fault the committee for taking a pass. (Remember last year when Virginia Tech had a Duke win and two Florida State wins and didn’t make it? Seth Greenberg does.) In any case, five teams made the cut and have been matched-up and seeded. We’ll have more in-depth analysis of each of the games, but for now, I just want to take a minute and have a quick look at how the placement of each of the ACC teams affects the chances at a good run in the tournament.

North Carolina (#1 seed in the Midwest)

The Tar Heels don’t have a lot to complain about. Sneaking into position for the third top seed behind Kentucky and Syracuse, North Carolina is strongly positioned for a good run in the tournament. The top half of the Midwest is relatively weak, and UNC’s only reason for complaint has to do with the #2 seed. Kansas is the top #2 seed and if they meet North Carolina in St. Louis, there should be a distinct Jayhawk crowd advantage. By the overall seeding chart, North Carolina should have had Duke as the #2 seed in its region. Of course, since the committee seeks to avoid regions with the top two seeds in the same conference, the two seeds got shuffled around. Potential intrigue on the path to the Final Four? Creighton at the #8 seed sets up the Ames Bowl, where Harrison Barnes would get to face his high school teammate Doug McDermott, who has been having one of the best seasons in college basketball. Meanwhile, the presence of Georgetown, Michigan, and, of course, Kansas summons memories of past tournament showdowns: each of these teams was the runner-up  from each of UNC’s first three national championships. The Kansas match-up also would give us plenty of reason to re-run this amusing clip (not that we need any additional reason to watch it again).

Roy Won't Be Smiling If He Has To Face Kansas In Saint Louis

Duke (#2 seed in the South)

All in all, I think Duke made out fairly well.  Sure, they got stuck in the same region as Kentucky on the 20th anniversary of “The Shot”, but honestly, the championship runs through the Wildcats. If you want to win it all, you will probably have to beat Kentucky. The rest of the region is significantly less impressive. Baylor, Indiana, and Wichita State have all shown signs of weakness, faltering down the stretch. All of these teams are capable of great things, but it’s hard to expect consistent quality out of any of them. The team that stands out as maybe the most dangerous is UNLV. The Rebels have also had their troubles during the course of the season, but they have an element of danger and unpredictability that makes me think that they could offer some nasty surprises for their opponent. It’s reasonable to predict Duke to make the Elite Eight and if the Blue Devils can make it past Kentucky, the rest of their tournament will be a breeze. It sounds so easy when I say it like that, doesn’t it?

Read the rest of this entry »

Duke ground out a 60-56 win over Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies their twelfth loss by five points or less this season.

• This game was nearly as ugly as the Miami-Georgia Tech slugfest last night. Tyler Thornton and Austin Rivers combined to take 57% of Duke’s shots. And while it wasn’t pretty, both guys came up with the big plays when Duke needed them. Rivers kept the team in business at the beginning of the game before letting his frustration get the better of him. It was his full-court sprint for a tipped ball that iced the game after he completed the and-one. Thornton was more important defensively, coming up with three steals, but he also deserves credit for knocking down a very big three to put Duke’s lead back at eight when it looked like the Hokies were making a push.
  

  Ryan Kelly Is Critical For Duke's Success This Month

• Virginia Tech’s offense needs work this offseason. A lot of it. The Hokies waste way too much time on offense. Duke played decent defense, and Seth Greenberg mentioned slowing the game down as part of the game plan. But successful clock-chewing teams squeeze 25-30 seconds out of every possession and take good shots (see: Wisconsin). Robert Brown’s 3-3 halftime stat line, and offensive rebounding were the only bright spots. The Hokies’ defense was very effective though. It forced Duke’s offense to flow through Thornton, and made it very hard for Duke to get the ball inside (though once the ball got into the lane, the Blue Devils were effective scoring).
• The Blue Devils really need a healthy Ryan Kelly to make a run in March. Without Kelly Duke’s bench only managed six points. His absence also spotlights frontcourt depth issues. Mason Plumlee played a very “intelligent” game according to Mike Krzyzewski, but both Plumlees are liable to pick up fouls. Kelly’s ability to stretch the defense would’ve opened up the lane a lot more for Rivers to drive and the Plumlees to post.

As we expected it came down to the final couple of minutes, but Virginia Tech pulled out a 68-63 win over Clemson in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

• Free throws, free throws, free throws. Look at the box score from the game, and it looks like Clemson should’ve won. Similar rebounding numbers, better shooting percentages and only a slim deficit in turnovers. But the Tigers only shot 60% from the charity stripe to the Hokies’ 85%. That was the difference. With a little over a minute left Tanner Smith missed two free throws including the front end of a one-and-one. Brian Narcisse and Devin Booker also missed one. That’s five points left on the board in the final minute alone. There’s your deficit.
• “We haven’t practiced special situations as much; we’ve just lived it,” Seth Greenberg commented on his team’s youth and their tendency towards tough games (17 games decided by six points or less). Virginia Tech’s closing has been up and down all season. It was up and down tonight too. The Hokies gave up one five-second violation trying to inbound the ball and probably should’ve had another. They gave up several second-chance opportunities down the stretch to keep Clemson in striking distance. Tomorrow against Duke, that execution will have to be a lot crisper.
• Tanner Smith has one of the best motors in the conference. He and Andre Young were everywhere defensively for Clemson down the stretch. Young got most of the accolades because of his importance on offense, but Smith is a big part of why Clemson’s defense is so effective. He’s a very versatile defender who fights through every screen. Those two are going to be impossible for Brad Brownell to replace next year. At least for replacing Young, the freshman Devin Coleman had a terrific game (truthfully, I don’t know why he didn’t get more time during the season).

Day one of the Pac-12 Tournament is complete, and we received two good games out of four from the basketball gods. Of course, the term “good” is being tossed around here; I just consider a good game is a game that is close. Here are four things that stood out on day one of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Attendance on day one was pathetic, especially considering the all-Los Angeles matchup of USC-UCLA was played. With games like Oregon State-Washington, UCLA-Arizona, and Oregon-Colorado, attendance should be better for the quarterfinals. (credit: Brendon Mulvhill)

1. Oregon State’s resiliency — After leading by 16 early on, Washington State went on a 15-2 run to pull within three points of the Beavers. The Cougars would enter the locker rooms with a 39-38 lead, and despite the one point game, the Beavers looked done. All-conference player Jared Cunningham had just two points at halftime, perhaps playing tight due to one of his mentors, former Beaver star guard Gary Payton, was sitting courtside at Staples Center. The Beavers looked slow and fat and perhaps ready to call it a season, but that didn’t happen. Instead of forcing up shots in the second half, Cunningham fed tbe ball to Devon Collier and Joe Burton in the paint and got the job done on defense. Collier and Burton finished with 19 and 15 points, respectively, and it’s safe to say that the Beavers don’t advance without those two.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) – It’s funny how the difference between a successful season can come down to one game. Had North Carolina lost to Duke at Cameron, people would’ve pointed to the Tar Heels’ lofty preseason expectations and how they came up short. Instead, Roy Williams’ squad finally showed the world just why it was ranked so high early in the season. Kendall Marshall hit shots, the defense clicked and the game felt over by the first media timeout. Now the Tar Heels have the inside track for a one-seed, owning the head-to-head victory with Michigan State that will definitely come in handy. There are still legitimate questions about North Carolina’s intensity, but if that intensity is in the ballpark of Saturday night opponents should be scared. Don’t pencil the Tar Heels into the Final Four before seeing the ACC Tournament. This team’s worst enemy until the final weekend will be itself. One person in particular to keep you eye on is Marshall. He was snubbed from first-team All-ACC (he missed by two votes), so I expect him to come out aggressively Friday. He’s also shows recent offensive improvement, coming up with two of his best performances of the year in rivalry games against NC State and Duke. When he’s taking and hitting open looks, the Tar Heels are impossible to guard.
   Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the last day of the regular season, but today will inevitably pass in yesterday’s shadow. While Miami managed to push away Boston College to make its bid for the last bye in the conference tournament, Georgia Tech pulled itself out of the conference cellar with a home court win against Wake Forest. At the top of the conference, however, North Carolina made the biggest play, defeating Duke at Cameron Indoor by 18 points and winning the regular season title outright. All five Tar Heel starters scored double digits with Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall all putting up double-doubles. Despite a second half swoon, North Carolina displayed a resiliency that the team hadn’t yet demonstrated against elite competition. Yesterday did a lot to erase those doubts and set up a post-season run.

North Carolina Vaulted Over Duke For The Regular Season Title (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Redemption vs. Legitimacy.

• Clemson at #19 Florida State at Noon on ESPN2

Florida State has already wrapped up the third seed in the conference tournament, but this game offers a chance at redemption for the Seminoles who endured the early season indignity of a loss to Clemson. For the Tigers, there is a lot more at sake. Somehow, the Tigers have played their way into borderline post-season relevance. If the Tigers can win against Florida State and beat some good teams in the ACC tournament, Clemson has an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament, an outcome that seemed unlikely a month ago. The Tigers have played well done the stretch, but a bid still seems unlikely. Still, as Jeff Foxworthy once mused, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are going to mix it up a bit for the final three days of the season. There are so many good games on the schedule that it wouldn’t do them justice to leave them unmentioned, not to mention the games with an impact for bubble teams. Here are some quick hitters on all the games you need to be following.

Top games:

West Virginia @ South Florida – 12:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

The Bulls notched a huge win over Louisville earlier this week, but many feel they still have to win this game to ensure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers are hanging on by a thread but could really enhance their chances with a nice road victory in Tampa. This game has Big East Tournament implications as well, but both teams need it more for their NCAA chances. As a member of the Big East, South Florida has beaten 14 of the 15 other teams in the league. West Virginia is the only team they have yet to knock off. This would be one heck of a time to grab that win in West Virginia’s last regular season game as a member of the Big East. Pretty much everything is on the line in this game.

Can West Virginia Win A Big One On The Road?

#11 Georgetown @ #8 Marquette – 2:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

Both teams are obviously in the NCAA Tournament so this game is about seeding more than anything. A win over the Golden Eagles would be Georgetown’s ninth against the RPI top 50 and fifth against the top 25. Marquette has just one RPI top 25 win (Wisconsin) so adding another could really help Marquette’s seeding when the NCAA committee debates next Sunday in Indianapolis. The winner of this game will grab the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. The contrast of styles in this game will be fascinating as Marquette looks to run at home against a disciplined Georgetown defensive unit.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the ACC Tournament quickly approaching with one game separating everyone from Atlanta. Right now that means there’s a real traffic jam of schools going for the fourth seed (Virginia, Miami, NC State and Clemson) and the ninth seed (Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest). Below is a chart that hopefully makes sense of everything. A big shout-out to Patrick Stevans, who put together the scenarios.

Warning: it gets pretty complicated.

ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

1. Washington Post: This isn’t related to Mark Gianatto’s article, but last night was not a good night for commonwealth basketball. The Virginia Cavaliers started the evening, opening up a solid lead in the second half over Florida State. A win over the Seminoles behind a man’s man performance out of Mike Scott would have worked wonders for a weak NCAA tournament resume and answer Tyler Zeller’s performance against Maryland in the ACC Player of the Year race. Long story short, Virginia blew the lead by allowing a 16-2 Florida State run to close the game before losing on a three from Ian Miller with 0.8 seconds left. Fast forward to Clemson, where by some anti-miracle neither team managed to score in the last 2:45. Watching their teams lose important games while announcers plugged the Duke – North Carolina game hurts. This screenshot of Seth Greenberg from @DarrylSlater  really sums things up.
   

   Seth Greenberg's Face Speaks for Virginia and Virginia Tech Fans Alike.

   Moving back to the article, Gianatto looks at the silver lining from Victor Davila’s enigmatic injury: more playing time for Cadarian Raines. Raines spent most of the last couple of years sidelined with foot injuries, but he’s stepped up big for Greenberg in Davila’s absence.

2. Oxford Public Ledger: In the March Madness spirit, here’s a Selection Sunday-style All-ACC team. Tyler Zeller, Mike Scott and John Henson own the three “automatic bids” thanks to terrific conference play. That leaves Michael Snaer, Austin Rivers and  Kendall Marshall duking it out with CJ Leslie, Terrell Stoglin, Kenny Kadji and Harrison Barnes for the other first team spots (in case you can’t tell, I favor two of the first three). That still leaves five spots on the second and third teams available, which will be earned by “bubble” players like Erick Green, Travis McKie, CJ Harris and Seth Curry to fill out the teams (for the record, I like two of those guys to make the second team).
3. Durham Herald-Sun: He may not be an All-ACC candidate, but Justin Watts doesn’t have any regrets about his time spent in Chapel Hill. Watts sounds like a laid-back guy who is happy to make his team better without any time under the spotlight. Veteran players like Watts are crucial to a team. Bill Simmons in an article earlier this year called Watts’ role “the chemist: “He’s the last guy every starter greets during the introductions, and he’s the guy who waits at midcourt before the opening tap for one last round of “good luck” hugs and hand slaps.”
4. SCACCHoops.com: If you’ve ever been curious how “Game Sim” works, John Pence wrote a mini-biography of one of the most underrated tools available (especially during the offseason: I can’t count the hours I spent matching up different teams of recent greatness and trying to make sense of the resultant box score). In addition to being a fun time-waster, Game Sim has picked an impressive 80% of ACC games this season; additionally, as more and more data is compiled, it’s getting more and more accurate against the spread. So next time you have a few minutes and want to find out how this year’s Duke team would fare against the Blue Devils’ national championship team from 2010, just hit up Game Sim.
5. Baltimore Sun: More bad financial news out of College Park. The commission appointed to address Maryland‘s athletic department’s budgetary issues called for the university to cut six more sports (men’s tennis, men’s track and field, men’s and women’s swimming and diving, women’s water polo and women’s acrobatics and tumbling). Kevin Anderson has some tough decisions to make. If the football team looked stronger, one might be able to make the argument that revenues should increase and temporary budget cuts would be enough. But reality sometimes hurts. Maybe in a few years things will be different.

EXTRA: Gene Wojciechowski points out that the ACC may actually be in the driver’s seat in conference realignment. Specifically, the Big Ten will not want the ACC to surround Penn State (which would happen if the conference added Rutgers and Connecticut). I’m not sure if I buy the ACC having that much influence (Jim Delaney, Mike Slive and Larry Scott seem to be running the show), but Wojciechowski definitely makes a strong case.

March is here and the Madness isn’t far off. Last night, NC State won a close one against Miami, helping themselves in the hunt for a bid while taking a little air out of the Hurricanes’ bubble. Meanwhile, in less meaningful news, Boston College managed to win its fourth conference game defeating an increasingly confused-looking Georgia Tech team and pulling themselves into eleventh place. In Chapel Hill, Tyler Zeller closed out his Dean Smith Center career by putting up 30 points and playing some of the best basketball of his career in an ugly “platinum” uniform while Kendall Marshall handily broke the North Carolina single season assist record against a Maryland team that just couldn’t stop a relentless (though often inaccurate) Tar Heel attack.

Battle of the Second Tier

• #19 Florida State at Virginia at 7:00 PM on ESPN2

The Seminoles are two and half games up on the Cavliers in the conference standings with only two games to go so this isn’t really a battle for third place in the conference, but it sure feels that way. The two defensive powerhouses of the ACC met once before this season in Tallahassee where the home team managed a tough one-possession win. The fact is that these tough, close losses to good teams are starting to catch up to Virginia. Outside of a win against Michigan, what else can the Cavaliers point to? Beating Miami and Drexel? Virginia is a very good team, but they don’t really have an impressive résumé. Beating ranked Florida State would help to strengthen the Wahoos position heading into the ACC tournament. Meanwhile, the Seminoles have faltered down the stretch losing their past two games, which is equal to the number of losses they had in 2012 before the skid. Barring a total collapse,  Florida State probably is already a near-lock to go dancing. It would be nice for Florida State to win this game, but the Seminoles don’t need it like the Cavaliers do. At home, I like Mike Scott to close out his time in Charlottesville with a bang.

Crouching Tigers As Hidden Dragon?

• Virginia Tech at Clemson at 9:00 PM on ACC Network Affiliates and ESPN3.com

Very quietly, the Clemson has reached the .500 mark in conference play. With wins against Florida State, Virginia, and Saturday’s win over NC State, the Tigers have put themselves in a very interesting position. If Clemson wins tonight against the Hokies (no guarantee since they lost their first match-up) and manages to win again against Florida State to finish out the season, Brad Brownell‘s team will be positioned to play two very winnable games in the ACC Tournament and have a shot at snagging another marquee win or two. Looking at the Clemson’s list of bad losses, the Tigers look very sketchy. Still, though it’s a long shot, I think the Tigers do have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Or at least getting tantalizingly close just in time to get shot down on Selection Sunday. In any case, this long shot is going to make tonight’s game a little awkward. Seth Greenberg knows.