Ryan Kelly may be Duke‘s most important player. Just look at the Blue Devils’ tailspin last season when he went down with an injured foot. In Duke’s losses last year Kelly averaged five points a game (not including the two Ls he missed due to injury). In Duke’s wins he averaged over 13 points a game. That’s a striking difference. Kelly’s averages from last season are identical to this season (11.8 points per game and just over five rebounds per game), though he’s seen a dramatic drop in his efficiency from beyond the arc and at the charity stripe. The free throw problem is probably a short-term slump and his three point percentage will also likely rise but remain below last season’s excellent 41% mark. But don’t let identical output and depressed percentages confuse you: Kelly is an improved player whose game has evolved a lot even since last season.

Duke really missed Ryan Kelly at the end of last season. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

The most quantifiable change has come in his shot selection. Last year over 40 percent of Kelly’s shots were threes; this year just over 30 percent of his attempts come from distance. Rather than taking low-percentage contested twos, Kelly’s mid-range game is flourishing. At 6’11”, he’s virtually impossible for more athletic wings to guard, instead drawing power forwards to the perimeter where he has the advantage. Instead of settling for threes this season, he’s taken one or two steps inside the arc, where he’s nearly automatic. Kelly also appears to be more comfortable operating out around 12-16 feet from the basket, as his turnovers are down this year, potentially because he isn’t forcing things as much.

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Let’s cut right to the chase: Duke is #1 and Indiana #2. This may upset some, considering Indiana began the season as our #1 team, is a perfect 6-0 with a good win against Georgetown, has perhaps the best offensive attack in college basketball, and has shown little — if any — weakness. But, there is little denying Duke’s resume at this point (more on that after the jump). Two Big East squads—Georgetown and Cincinnati—made power moves up in the rankings after impressive weeks, while two other teams have plummeted right out of the Top 25—UCLA and Memphis. There wasn’t just movement at the top of the rankings, as five new teams have entered the Top 25 after strong showings during “Feast Week.”

This week’s QnD after the jump…

Quick ‘n Dirty Analysis.

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1. CBS Sports: In the wake of Maryland‘s defection to the Big Ten, the main focus of speculation is what the ACC’s counterstroke will be. According to those in the know, the vote to pick a replacement for the departing Terps could happen as early as this week. The two leading candidates for replacement are Louisville and Connecticut. Both schools offer a few distinct advantages over the other. Louisville’s reasonable success in football is a big draw when football is the raison d’etre of realignment, while UConn’s academic profile more closely aligns with the Atlantic Coast Conference. A successful football program is a powerful draw, but considering that membership is decided by a vote of university presidents, the importance of academics as a deciding factor should not be overlooked.
2. NBC Sports: There are embarrassing losses and then there are embarrassing losses, and sadly, Boston College has not been a stranger to either variety in recent years. Sunday’s loss to Bryant University, a school enjoying its very first year as a full Division I member, falls into the latter category. BC is only 2-4 to start the season, although the Eagles have admittedly played a more challenging schedule than many of their conference peers. That said, a home loss to Bryant is a troubling sign.  Head Coach Tim O’Shea accidentally backhanded the Eagles with his postgame comments: “Five years ago, the biggest game on Bryant’s schedule was Bentley. Five years later, we’ve just beaten Boston College on the road. It’s a big deal.”
3. Testudo Times: A Maryland team that was decimated by defections found some extra depth in a recent win over Georgia Southern. The sterling play of freshman Charles Mitchell continued as he contributed a double-double off the bench with fellow freshman Shaquille Cleare adding a double-figure scoring effort. An additional double-figure scoring effort by transfer guard Logan Aronhalt — who went 4-4 from beyond the arc — demonstrated that the Terrapins have more firepower on the bench than expected. With Mark Turgeon happy to keep his starters on the bench while the reserves performed, it’s easy to wonder if the starting lineup may undergo some revisions over the course of the next few games.
4. Duke Basketball Report: The ACC / Big Ten Challenge kicks off Tuesday evening and this year, the event has a little extra spice. Between the still-open wound of Maryland leaving one conference for the other, the allure of a top-five showdown between Duke and Ohio State is appealing, as is a chance for a perplexing North Carolina team to take a shot at an increasingly vulnerable looking Indiana squad. After a 10-year run of victories, the ACC has lost the past three years. Say what you will about realignment, but it sure makes these interconference events feel a little more exciting.
5.  Basketball Prospectus: One more item on the topic of conference realignment: Why does it happen? Well, as Maryland so ably and honestly demonstrated: it’s the money. Using a clever analogy with pro sports, John Gasaway proposes a novel (or at least freshly recycled) idea on how to make conferences significantly more stable: revenue sharing across all of the major conferences. It’s an interesting thought, and one that merits some additional examination.

Chris Johnson is an RTC National Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

The Weekend Lede. Battle 4 Atlantis Caps Terrific Set of Early-Season Tourneys. It is always a treat when two top five teams meet this early in the season. The high drama is typically saved for March, but the increasingly tasty match-ups served up by various exempt tournaments during Feast Week whet our appetites for the thrillers five months down the road. Saturday night brought us our first true marquee clash, with No. 2 Louisville meeting No. 5 Duke in the Battle 4 Atlantis final. The showdown in the Bahamas emanated a Tourney feel, and the backdrop – the sleek blue tridents, enveloped in darkness, overlooking the dim courts – only tacked on more intrigue to the proceedings. As these early-season tournaments wrap up, let us celebrate this season’s wonderful slate, and hope for a similarly tantalizing selection next season. And in case you somehow got the impression the B4A was the only big event around, think again: the nation is peppered with sneaky-good match-ups and draws. Shall we dive into the weekend’s tourney festivities?

Your Watercooler Moment. Did We Overestimate Louisville?

It’s far too early to make definitive statements about Lousville’s bottom-line. The Cardinals will be fine (Photo credit: Getty Images).

In the wake of Saturday night’s events, it’s certainly a legitimate question. Just as he did in that mostly forgettable 1992 meeting between Kentucky and Duke, when some Laettner dude hit some “shot,” Coach K got the best of Rick Pitino in the Blue Devils methodical deconstruction of the Cardinals hounding defense. Duke was no doubt the better team on the floor – Mason Plumlee has officially entered the National POY discussion; Quinn Cook proved he can be the perimeter sparkplug Duke needs him to be; Rasheed Sulaimon is a better fit system-wise than Austin Rivers was last season. There are plenty of things to like about this Duke team, and all systems were a go throughout their run in the Bahamas. Which is why I’m loathe to downgrade the Cardinals after the championship loss. The Cardinals clearly have some tinkering to do on the offensive end (it also doesn’t help when your defensive anchor and swatting connossieur, Gorgui Dieng, is sidelined with a wrist injury). Backcourt mates Peyton Siva and Russ Smith were out of sync. Chane Behanan and Wayne Blackshear were non-factors. Transfer Luke Hancock still needs to find his role. All of these are problems that need to be addressed – and they will be. Pitino’s Final Four team of last season wasn’t nearly the same team in November, and I expect a similar gradual development from this year’s bunch. It won’t be long before Pitino will iron out the kinks, find an optimal rotation and have his team firing on all cylinders. The Cardinals are taking their lumps early, and growing through tough losses against good teams. Saturday night’s result was more about Duke’s potential, and less about Louisville’s shortcomings.

This Weekend’s Quick Hits…

• Mark Few’s Best Team Yet? Reclaiming sole possession of the WCC crown was an expected achievement for Gonzaga this season. But after six wins to begin the season, including two over Big 12 foes Oklahoma and West Virginia and one over reigning SoCon champion Davidson in the Old Spice Final Sunday, it’s time to set a new bar. Gonzaga has talent at every position, from floor operator Kevin Pangos to versatile forward Sam Dower to the recently eligible Kelly Olynyk. And if they can sustain this intensity into the league season, they’ll peak just in time for Tournament play. Let’s not rush to judge: The Bulldogs have Illinois, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State on tap before they enter WCC play. Beginning with a home date with the Illini on December 8, the turn of the calendar will reveal the depths of Gonzaga’s potential. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Johnson is an RTC National Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Battle 4 Atlantis Meets Expectations. The debate over this year’s best early-season exempt tournament was never a debate. The quality of teams assembled for the Battle 4 Atlantis far outstripped every other event across the nation. The field generated a considerable amount of hype, so the potential existed for at least some level of letdown. With a tantalizing Duke-Louisville final looming, the proceedings in the Bahamas have not disappointed. Each game provided a different dramatic twist – from Northern Iowa’s near-upset of Louisville to Andre Hollins’ 41-point outburst against Memphis to Duke’s deft maneuvering of VCU’s havoc defense. Not only did the tournament bring us great teams, it supplied a remarkably clean brand of basketball, which no doubt owes itself to the NCAA rules allowing coaches to work with their teams over the summer. Even if the championship doesn’t live up to your expectations, the rest has been thrilling to observe. Whether or not the Battle 4 Atlantis can compile the same elite field next year remains an open question. But come on, this needs to be repeated on an annual basis – in the Bahamas or otherwise.

Your Watercooler Moment. Punishment Does not Meet Offense In Sean Woods Case. 

By now, you’ve seen the video clip numerous times, read the multitude of columns written in its aftermath, and listened to the talking heads debate Sean Woods’ sideline behavior during the second-half of Morehead State’s 81-70 loss at Kentucky Wednesday night. Any rant on coach-player misconduct has the potential to branch off into 1,500-word category, but I’ll condense my thoughts into a simple statement: the behavior Woods exhibited has no place on a collegiate sideline. It’s inappropriate and cruel, callous and cold-hearted. His actions demand no less than a 5-10 game suspension and a genuine public apology. Yet after berating one of his players on a public stage, reducing him to tears, Woods’ actions merit a mere one-game punishment. Morehead State needed to send a message; a one-game absence doesn’t do nearly enough to accomplish that goal. You can understand Woods’ getting caught up in the moment, what with a potential victory over defending national champion Kentucky on the line, not to mention the prospect of beating his former alma mater. But to lose your cool in a public setting and channel your frustration over a blown lead into the denigration of one of your players is patently disrespectful. And it’s not like this is the first time we’ve seen Woods exhibit poor sideline conduct before. He notably chewed out junior center Chad Posthumus during a Nov. 12 game against Maryland. Woods’ repeated behavior merits stern punitive action. Missing one-game won’t lead to any meaningful change in sideline decor. This situation demanded harsher repercussions; Woods has shown a repeated inability to restrain his temper. Here’s to hoping that university’s minimal wrist slap will prompt a change in Woods’ demeanor.

Your Quick Hits…

• Two of Nation’s Hottest Teams Roll Into Old Spice Final. Many felt heading into this season that this very well could be Mark Few’s best Gonzaga team since taking over in 1999. That sentiment feels especially true after the Bulldogs’ 5-0 start. And the scary part for the rest of the WCC and mid-major nation at large is that Gonzaga hasn’t even been tested yet. They handled an improving Oklahoma squad, 72-47, Friday night and enter Sunday’s Old Spice Final riding a powerful wave of momentum. They could face their biggest challenge yet in Davidson, who has posted consecutive wins over Vanderbilt and West Virginia and features a formidable frontcourt duo in Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks. Make no mistake, Gonzaga and Davidson are two of the best mid-majors in the country, and you can expect to see both playing and (pending seed and matchup) advancing in March. Sunday’s final provides a nice showcase game for two teams who should cruise through their respective league schedules. Enjoy it. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The Battle 4 Atlantis and the NIT Tip-Off continue over the weekend with some very interesting match-ups. So grab some Thanksgiving left overs and settle in for some good hoops.

#5 Michigan vs. Kansas State (PNIT Finals) – 4:30 PM EST, Friday on ESPN (****)

The Wolverines are going to need better three-point shooting from Tim Hardaway Jr. against Kansas State. (Melanie Maxwell/AnnArbor.com)

• Both Michigan and Kansas State. are coming off tough semifinal wins in the NIT Tip-Off. Michigan was able to pull out a victory with strong second-half defense in the 1-3-1 zone and great defensive rebounding. While the Wolverines are not going to win many games going 3-17 from three-point land, it is encouraging to see them win with their defense, particularly because Kansas State brings a strong defense into any game. The Wildcats are only allowing teams to shoot 27.4% from downtown and are creating turnovers on 28% of opponents possessions. K-State also had eight players go double-figure minutes against Delaware while the Wolverines only had six players go into double-figure minutes against Pitt. The Wolverines could get tired in the second half due to K-State’s physical play if they do not get more minutes from the bench. KSU is going to have to improve its shooting significantly if they want to walk away with a big win. They’ve shot 41.5% eFG against Delaware and 44.8% eFG through five games this season. The Wildcats need to shoot over 50% eFG to have a chance at winning this one.

#23 Cincinnati vs. Iowa State (LV Invitational) – 6:30 PM EST, Friday on CBS College Sports (***)

• While Cincinnati and Iowa State have two common opponents already, Campbell and North Carolina A&T, its tough to glean any significant information from the games because both were blowouts. The Bearcats come into the game with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 88.4, which is good for 11th in the nation. They are cleaning up on the defensive boards and shutting down two-point shooting. ISU is ranked 16th in the country in two-point shooting, hitting 56.9% of their shots inside the arc thus far. Keep a close eye on who wins the battle in the paint, as it should determine the winner of this one.

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1. Duke Basketball Report: If you’ve got some free time, Al Featherston has an exhaustive but interesting op-ed on Maryland‘s coming departure from the league. Featherston has a great perspective, and the piece comes at the move from a lot of different sides. It’s lengthy, but it’s worth the time.
2. NBC Sports: Ken Pomeroy tweeted during Duke‘s emphatic win against Minnesota that “Duke could be the best team in the country,” but Rob Dauster isn’t drinking the Blue Devil kool-aid just yet. Pomeroy’s reasoning makes sense: Duke held Minnesota to its least efficient outing of the year, while blistering the Golden Gophers for 1.23 points per possession. Dauster’s skepticism also makes sense, both because Duke shot 80% from beyond the arc and Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe didn’t look his dominant self. Still, if Duke makes it out of Atlantis unscathed, this team certainly deserves to be in that conversation.
3. Carolina Columns: North Carolina senator Thom Goolsby thinks there needs to be a criminal probe into the academic scandal at North Carolina. Goolsby sits on the state’s senate higher education committee. I’d be extremely surprised if there was a criminal probe before the results from the school’s internal audit are released. Regardless, it’s not a good look for North Carolina to be taking shots from a state senator and speaks to the severity of the case.
4. Run The Floor: Landry Nnoko had a huge block in Clemson‘s tough loss to Gonzaga. More important than that singular play was how close the Tigers managed to stay with a strong Gonzaga team deep into the second half. The game wasn’t pretty, but credit Brad Brownell and his team for coming out and hanging with a team many experts have as a Final Four sleeper for 30 minutes. That’s really promising for Clemson come conference play.
5. Providence Journal: If one more Big East school departs it’s possible that the remaining schools could vote to dissolve the conference. Specifically, Kevin McNamara theorizes, one more school’s departure would give basketball-only schools the super-majority needed to get rid of the conference completely. We’re still a long ways from such a drastic measure, but it’s definitely something to be aware of going forward.

Maryland is leaving the ACC to join the Big Ten along with Rutgers. Unsurprisingly the move sparked mixed opinions from all sides. Maryland’s move is the first time since South Carolina left in 1971 that a charter member of the ACC has joined another conference, which says a lot about the current state of college athletics. Objectively–at least in the long run — Maryland’s administration made the obvious decision. The Terrapin athletic department has financially struggled mightily the last few years, and the Big Ten offers significantly more television revenue than the ACC. The caveat is the ACC’s recently negotiated $50 million exit fee (which Maryland and Florida State opposed at the time), a fee so steep will decimate the athletic department’s short-term finances.

Thinking of Maryland In the Big Ten Doesn’t Feel Right, But It’s the New Reality (credit: SI.com)

Look for the ACC to really stick to its guns regarding the exit fee, but Maryland probably won’t pay the full penalty. Contracts require diligence in order to be enforced, and Maryland will probably argue that the massive exit fee is punitive — especially considering the fact that the school didn’t support the massive exit fee hike. That said, if other schools smell instability and see a way around the exit fee, the ACC could be in trouble. If Maryland is forced to pay the full exit fee, the only two feasible options are a massive capital campaign or some sort of assistance from a third party (including the Big Ten).

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Week one is in the books. There is already a fair amount of movement within the rankings, as well as a few teams making appearances in the Top 25 after not being on the radar in the preseason. The big story is, of course, Shabazz Muhammad is eligible to play for UCLA. As such, the Bruins rose in the rankings despite a near-miss performance against UC Irvine. Meanwhile, NC State took a significant hit after a blowout loss to Marcus Smart and Oklahoma State. The Cowboys make an appearance in the Top 25 after not even receiving votes in the preseason poll.

This week’s QnD after the jump…

Quick ‘n Dirty Analysis.

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Brendon Mulvihill is the head curator for @SportsGawker and an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Thanksgiving week, otherwise known as “Feast Week” for college hoops fans tuning into ESPN, provides us a bunch of viewing options while we gorge ourselves with turkey and stuffing. Several of the higher profile preseason tournaments get going or finish up this week including the Maui Invitational, the NIT Tip-Off, and the Battle 4 Atlantis. While we don’t know all the potential match-ups in those tourneys just yet, you can be sure there will be some great games. We’ll take a look today at the first round games for a few of the tournaments but definitely tune into the later rounds as they progress. Let’s get to the breakdowns.

Game of the Week

#5 Michigan vs. Pittsburgh (PNIT Semifinals) – 9:30 PM EST, Wednesday on ESPN HD (****)

The battle between Michigan’s Trey Burke (above) and Pitt’s Tray Woodall could be the best point guard match-up we see all season(AP)

• The battle between Pittsburgh’s Tray Woodall and Michigan’s Trey Burke at the point guard position could be one of the best we see all season. Woodall is averaging 14 points and seven assists through four games this season and shooting a fantastic 57.1% from inside the arc. Burke is averaging 18 points and eight assists through three games and is also shooting 57% from inside the arc. There are two areas to keep an eye on as these two battle throughout the night – turnovers and three-point shooting. Burke is turning the ball over at a slightly higher rate than Woodall – 20% vs. 15%. While both are excellent distributors of the basketball, the player who wins the defensive battle and can create more turnovers will give his team a huge advantage. Additionally, Burke is extending defenses with his 43.8% shooting from downtown. His ability to continue to hit threes against a Pitt team that has shown weakness against perimeter shooting will be vital to a Michigan victory — particularly so if Michigan wants to free up space on the inside for its frontcourt.
• Speaking of the frontcourt battle, Michigan’s Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan, and Jon Horford finally give coach John Beilein some rebounding to go along with his penchant for the outside shot. Michigan has been a three-point heavy squad with very little rebounding support under Beilein. With the additions of McGary and Robinson, the Wolverines can go big and hit the offensive boards hard should their outside shooting go cold. They are going to need it because the Panthers bring their own talented frontcourt to the party in Talib Zanna, J.J. Moore, and 7’0” freshman center Steven Adams. Offensive rebounding will be a huge factor in this game. Michigan is only allowing opponents to grab 14% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, good for third in the nation. They face a much tougher Pitt frontline however whose offensive rebounding rate is sixteenth in the nation at 46%. Something has to give.
• Given the great match-ups we are going to see in this game, it should be a close one in Madison Square Garden. The difference could be Michigan’s outside shooting. The Wolverines are currently hitting 49% of their three-point attempts. Outside pressure can come from Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., freshman Nick Stauskas, and even Robinson. If Jamie Dixon’s squad can improve its perimeter defense and get Adams more involved in the offense, they will have a chance to take down the Wolverines. Otherwise, U of M will walk out of the Garden with a victory.

Six Other Games to Watch This Week

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