It doesn’t matter that Miami has already clinched the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament and that Duke is already locked into the #2 seed. It doesn’t matter that the Tar Heels have already clinched a first round conference tournament bye and a likely mid-line entry into the big one. Sure, Duke could improve its shot at a top seed for the big one and clinch a share of the regular season conference title (if Miami loses). Sure, North Carolina could try to boost its stock for the selection committee. It’s Duke vs. North Carolina at the end of the season, and the value of resumes and seeding is a paltry concern next to the best rivalry in sports. When these teams play, external concerns go out the window: It’s the rivalry and that’s it. This time, when the two teams match up, there’s nothing on the line but pride in the jerseys, but that’s more than enough.

Forget the records, it’s always fun when these two guys get together on the court.

Duke won the previous match-up in Cameron Indoor, although the final gap between the two teams was closer than most anticipated. Duke has spent most of the season hovering around the top five teams in the country while North Carolina hasn’t been ranked in 2013. Yet when the buzzer sounded, the five-point win felt more like relief than a colossal triumph for a Duke team that was still trying to find its way during Ryan Kelly’s injury. Now that Kelly is back in action, there is no mistaking the disparity between the two teams: The Blue Devils are fielding the superior team by a clear margin.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

With the first tickets to the Big Dance being given out this weekend and regular season titles still up for grabs in the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, and A-10, it should be one amazing weekend of college hoops. It’s the most amazing time of the year, so sit back and enjoy. Let’s get to the breakdowns!

#17 Syracuse at #6 Georgetown – 12:00 PM EST, Saturday on ESPN (****)

Boeheim is looking for answers at Syracuse.

• Syracuse broke a three-game losing streak this week against DePaul while Georgetown lost for the first time in 11 games against Villanova. With the loss, the Hoyas dropped into a three-team tie for first place in the Big East with Marquette and Louisville. The Orange have struggled recently and had a tough time against the Hoyas defense two weeks ago at the Carrier Dome. Jim Boeheim’s team only went 4-20 from downtown and could not get anything going from their guards. The Hoyas struggled on offense as well but were able to rely on Otto Porter once again who put in 33 points. In order for Syracuse to snap out of this funk, they need to get more production from guards Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams. If both players can take better shots by driving the ball to the hoop, we will see a completely different Syracuse team. Georgetown put Villanova on the foul line 42 times earlier this week. Given the size of Triche and Carter-Williams, both players should be going straight to the basket in an attempt to draw fouls or get lay-ups. Keep a close on both players, as they are the keys to this game. If they are settling for jumpers, Syracuse is going to struggle again.

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Just as Indiana planned on capturing the outright Big Ten championship and all but securing the #1 overall seed on Tuesday, the Hoosiers lost on senior night to Ohio State. Twenty-four hours later, Georgetown — a sexy pick lately to land a #1 seed — lost to Villanova, leaving the Hoyas’ chances at a top seed at a minimum heading into the Big East Tournament. The overall #1 seed now appears to be a three-way race between Indiana, Duke and Kansas. The Jayhawks have quietly won seven in a row and will win their ninth consecutive Big 12 championship with a victory at Baylor Saturday or a loss by Kansas State (which faces Oklahoma State on the road). Kansas will need to win out through the Big 12 Tournament and could benefit from losses by Indiana and Duke if they want the overall top seed, but a #1 seed seems close to a sure thing. That’s a far cry from a month ago. Here’s how I’d handicap the top seeds as of today.

Seven Straight Wins And Inconsistent Play From Everyone Else Has The Jayhawks In A Good Spot

Safe Bets For a #1 Seed

• Duke (26-4, 8-2 in last 10): Getting Ryan Kelly back was huge, especially with him dropping 36 points in his return, a big win at home over Miami.
• Indiana (25-5, 7-3 in last 10): Still the best team in the country, but the gap is closing. They need to beat Michigan this weekend to avoid losing three out of four.
• Kansas (26-4, 7-3 in last 10, won seven in a row): If they can win at Baylor and win the Big 12 Tournament it would be 11 wins in a row, locking up a #1 seed.

Still In The Hunt

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Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. Night Line runs on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

The Miami Hurricanes spent January and February making believers out of skeptics, filling a bandwagon that had never, ever been even close to full. It takes no stretch of the imagination to believe in a Duke or a Carolina team that races out to a hot ACC start, but Miami? A program with just six NCAA Tournament appearances in its history? For us to trust the Canes, they had to be spectacular – and spectacular they were. Thirteen ACC wins in a row, including a sweep of UNC and a blowout win over Duke, practically sealed the ACC regular season title, and all this before the first day of March. They looked like the best team in the league, and a legitimate national title contender to boot.

Jim Larranaga Could Not Have Loved Miami’s Effort This Evening, But The Canes And Their Head Man Still Harbor Large Tournament Hopes

Both those proclamations may still be true, but back-to-back losses to begin the most important month in college basketball will again have the magnifying lenses hovering over the Canes. The loss at Cameron on Saturday (by just three points and with Ryan Kelly not only active but also having the game of his life) did little to damage Miami’s long-term prognosis. They still looked like the tough, veteran team that had ripped through this ACC slate — no problems there. But with that defeat now a part of a losing streak after tonight’s egregious home loss to Georgia Tech, we start to worry a little bit. There are questions again, and the doubt seeps back in with disturbingly little difficulty, because why did we really believe in the Miami Hurricanes to begin with?

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1. Winston-Salem Journal: Dan Collins equates Wake Forest‘s tipping point to getting easy baskets in transition. If the Demon Deacons do, they do well. If not, you get the idea. The issue with that theory is Wake Forest isn’t a team that forces turnovers. The Demon Deacons struggle more on offense than defense, so when they can score (easily or with difficulty), they perform well. Their struggles are much more complex than just getting points in transition. In their two blowout losses to Maryland, Wake Forest was beaten by Maryland’s frontcourt in College Park and Dez Wells in Winston-Salem. Maryland is also notorious for turning the ball over. Regardless, this makes me want to go back and watch some Wake Forest games to see what makes them tick.
2. Sports on Earth: This article does a good job addressing the challenge ahead of Duke’s opponents with Ryan Kelly now back. Essentially Kelly is the linchpin on both ends of the floor: He opens the lane up for Mason Plumlee, Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon to score, but he also helps shut it down as a versatile, wily defender. Other than Kelly, Duke didn’t play that well against Miami on Saturday night. However, things clicked — though not playing the conference’s best defense helped — after a slow start against Virginia Tech on senior night.
3. Tallahassee Democrat: Terrance Shannon‘s three minutes were the bright sunshine through the rainy day at Chapel Hill. He didn’t play well, but having him back at all after his gruesome injury is terrific news. The next steps for Shannon are obviously to continue getting back into game shape. On the whole, this has been a very quiet year in the ACC injury-wise (other than Kelly’s foot). Here’s to hoping everyone stays healthy for postseason play.
4. Boston Globe: Sunday’s upset of Boston College over Virginia was special. Dick Kelly, the Eagles’ longtime SID, was diagnosed with ALS two years ago. This year he was awarded the USBWA award for courage for his fight against the disease. Kelley still keeps in close contact with the athletic department, and after freshman Joe Rahon hit the game-winning shot, it was clear even the younger players know Kelley well.
5. Airball Free Throw: @WXMoose took the time after NC State‘s too close win at Georgia Tech to recap the game in GIFs. This may be the funniest post I’ve read all year.
6. BC Interruption: If you’re not a diehard ACC basketball fan or a fan of Boston College, you probably don’t know about Eddie Odio. He was supposed to redshirt his freshman year but played his way into the lineup. This year he’s averaging four points in a little under 20 minutes a game. But how he gets those points is why you should know him. Odio was a “standout volleyball player.” This should tip you off that he can seriously jump. Odio’s dunks are one of the many reasons watching Boston College is more enjoyable this year. His entire game still isn’t at the ACC level, but his athleticism certainly is. If Odio can bulk up a little bit and work on his jump shot (he’s only shooting 17% from deep this season), he’ll be even more fun to watch in future seasons.
7. Gobbler Country: Sticking with player profiles, Gobbler Country did a nice homage to Erick Green. It follows Green’s Virginia Tech career and how he started life buried on the bench as a freshman before Dorenzo Hudson’s injury gave him the chance he needed his sophomore year. This year, Green’s numbers are truly phenomenal. It’s easy to say, “Well, he’s on a bad team” and brush them off. But efficiency-wise, Green is far and above the best ACC player out there. Sure, Mason Plumlee and Shane Larkin could never come close to his usage rate. Each has too many other weapons on their respective teams. But Green deserves as much recognition as he can get and probably the ACC Player of the Year award.
8. Baltimore Sun: Pe’Shon Howard has had a tough year. He started the year as captain and leader of a team that many thought was dangerous. Midway through the year his captaincy was revoked and he sat out Maryland’s marquee win over Duke. Howard was also plagued by season-long cold shooting with a horrible tendency to turn the ball over, and often looked lost on both ends of the floor. Still, his performance against Wake Forest looked like he’s getting back on track — especially defensively. But unlike Mark Turgeon’s problem child last season, Howard appears to be responding to his criticism and looks like he’ll be returning to College Park next year. The Terrapins will be better for it.
9. Charlotte Observer: If you’ve watched much of Duke this season, it’s hard not to notice the bond between Mike Krzyzewski and Mason Plumlee. Plumlee may still make some of the same errors he did as a freshman and sophomore, but they’re not from a lack of effort. He’s extremely focused this season (on winning a national championship), and his enthusiasm has helped to build a great relationship with the Duke coach. I’m not sure there’s a Plumlee-esque senior leader on next year’s team, but if I had to guess that person would be Tyler Thornton.
10. Chattanooga Times Free Press: The last line of this story about Shane Larkin may reveal the real reason Larkin quit baseball:

“Shane used to always be known as my son,” the elder Larkin told ESPN last week. “Now I’m known as Shane’s father, and I couldn’t be happier about that.”

But whatever the true reason, Larkin is phenomenal. He’s the most exciting, important and consistent player on the ACC’s best team. If he wants to truly cement his legacy in Coral Gables, he needs to lead his team to the ACC Championship and/or the Elite Eight. Truthfully, his legacy as a ‘Cane is already safe, but those achievements would put him over the top. He’s also got the best team he’ll ever have at Miami, so now is the time.

It was a boring penultimate weekend of Atlantic Coast Conference play where everything went according to plan and nothing exciting happened. Just kidding: It was a in fact a sensational weekend of games with some big time performances and massive upsets. There were also a couple of dull games where teams with “North Carolina” in their name easily defeated overmatched foes, but let’s try our best to ignore that as we examine some late lessons of the season.

1. Boston College Really Likes Playing Teams That Just Beat Duke. In fact, the Eagles have proven themselves as the masters of the hangover game. A win over Virginia is more impressive than a win over Maryland, but what remains far more interesting is BC’s penchant for killing other team’s vibes. All but one conference victory (an early season tilt against Virginia Tech) has come after an opponent has won its previous game. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but if I was going to face Boston College after I had just won a game, I would do my best not to overlook the Eagles.
2. Duke’s Win Over Miami Was Surprising For The Wrong Reasons. Let’s be totally clear: Ryan Kelly’s 36 points on 14 shots was one of the most sensational individual performances in all of college basketball this year. It also probably feels good for Duke fans to get revenge after Miami’s victory early in the season. Still, if I’m a Duke fan, I’m a little concerned. The Blue Devils were supposed to win this game, with most betting lines putting the team as a 5.5 point favorite. Kelly puts in one of the single most impressive and surprising performances of the year… and Duke only wins by 3 points at home? It was a big victory, no doubt, but shouldn’t it have been a lot bigger?
   

   While Ryan Kelly’s outstanding performance was great in the Duke win, the narrow victory might be cause for some concern. (Lance King)

3. Wake Forest Has Become Ridiculously Good At Drawing Fouls. Technically, Boston College and NC State have been better than the Demon Deacons in conference play, but you wouldn’t know that by watching the game against Maryland. In the first half, Wake was in the bonus with 9:47 to go in the period. In the second half, they were in the bonus with 16:13 left. That’s right. They reached the bonus before the first official timeout of the second half. James Padgett fouled out after 17 minutes, and in 10 minutes of play, Shaquille Cleare tallied four fouls. The Deacons ultimately lost this game, but this kind of foul-drawing performance suggests that this team might be particularly well-positioned to exploit the teams that foul the most in the conference — namely Virginia Tech, Virginia and Duke. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is an RTC columnist. Every Tuesday during the regular season he’ll be giving his 10 thoughts on the previous week’s action. You can find him on Twitter @botskey

1. If there is one team that personifies this rollercoaster season of unpredictability, it is probably Virginia. Last week was the Cavaliers’ season in a nutshell as they toppled Duke in Charlottesville before laying an egg at Boston College on Sunday. At 20-9 (10-6), Virginia sits squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble with two regular season games to play. In my heart of hearts, I believe this is a tournament-quality team. Virginia has impressive victories against aforementioned Duke as well as NC State, North Carolina and a huge road win at Wisconsin earlier in the season. Additionally, the Cavs sport wins over bubble buddies Tennessee and Maryland (on the road). Unfortunately for Virginia, the story doesn’t end there and turns sour rather quickly. Tony Bennett’s team has lost a stunning seven games to sub-100 RPI opponents, six of them coming on the road or at a neutral site. The loss to #315 Old Dominion is particularly puzzling. With just a 2-6 road record in conference play, an RPI in the 60s and an embarrassing non-conference strength of schedule, Virginia is not in a great spot despite its good wins. Joe Harris and the Cavs need to take care of business against Florida State and Maryland before putting together some kind of ACC Tournament run. This is one of the more bizarre NCAA resumes I’ve ever seen and one sure to create a lot of debate in the committee room.
   

   Joe Harris and Virginia haven’t been consistent

2. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s comments after his team’s loss to Virginia created a stir throughout the college basketball world over the last few days. Coach K complained about his team not being able to safely get off the floor while Virginia’s students rushed the court after their team’s big win. While the video does show the Duke team unable to enter the tunnel and head to the locker room, I feel Krzyzewski is out of line. His team was protected by multiple arena security personnel who formed a human wall between the Duke team and the Virginia students. At no time were the Duke players in any danger. I understand why things this man says get noticed, after all he is the sport’s winningest coach. But why does everything Coach K says have to be taken as gospel? Let the kids have some fun and stop with the “get off my lawn!” attitude. Unless your team is in danger of being hurt, comments like these serve as a distraction and quite honestly look like sour grapes to me.
3. After suffering the loss to Virginia, Duke rebounded in a big way by taking down Miami and exacting a measure of revenge for the blowout loss earlier this year in Coral Gables. It was a struggle though as the Blue Devils needed a career-high 36 points from Ryan Kelly (in his first game back since January 8) just to win by three on their home floor. While Kelly clearly sparked Duke offensively in this game, he makes a bigger difference on the other side of the basketball. Kelly is an outstanding defender because he’s a tall, agile forward who can get up into a player on the perimeter and force him to shoot over or pass around Kelly, often going east-west instead of north-south. Kelly’s presence on the floor did not make a huge difference in this particular game when it comes to Miami’s offensive efficiency but he did frustrate the Hurricanes from the three point line. Miami shot just 6-21 from deep and a big reason for that was Kelly and his length. As we head into postseason play, Kelly’s return will make a huge difference on the defensive side of the ball for Duke. Anything he does offensively is gravy for this team. Duke is undefeated with Kelly in the lineup and that bodes well for the Blue Devils as they look to grab a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and make a run at the program’s 16^th Final Four appearance. Read the rest of this entry »

Less than a month ago it seemed ridiculous to mention ‘Kansas’ and ‘#1 seed’ in the same breath. They had lost three in a row for the first time in forever and dropped a game to the worst team in a power conference, falling to #14 in the AP poll on February 11. But then things started happening between then and now that needed to happen for Kansas to be in the discussion for a top seed so late in the season. Teams ahead of the Jayhawks started losing. Butler lost three times. So did Michigan State. Arizona and Syracuse each lost three games. Ohio State, Florida, Michigan, and Miami (FL) lost twice, as did Duke (although they were without Ryan Kelly in both instances). Kansas, on the other hand, is 6-0 since losing to Oklahoma on February 9. Louisville and Gonzaga are the only other teams from the top 14 in the AP poll three weeks ago that are undefeated since. And neither Louisville nor the Zags have the resume of Kansas in that stretch. The Jayhawks have beaten then #10 Kansas State at home and #14 Oklahoma State on the road — both RPI top 50 wins — as well as Iowa State on the road, a likely NCAA Tournament team with a #53 RPI ranking.

Bill Self Could Capture His 5th #1 Seed In 7 Years (Photo credit: AP Photo)

Barring two losses through the Big 10 Tournament (between three and five games), Indiana is a virtula lock for a #1 seed. Here’s what the other top teams look like, with resume boosters in bold and resume killers in italics.

Kansas

• 25-4 overall
• SOS: 13
• RPI: 4
• 9-3 in road/neutral games
• 9-3 vs the RPI top 50
• Good Wins: St. Louis (RPI #30), at Ohio State, at Oklahoma State, Kansas State (twice)
• Bad Losses: TCU
• Remaining Games: Texas Tech, at Baylor

Miami (FL)

• 23-5 overall
• SOS: 4
• RPI: 3
• 10-5 in road/neutral games
• 6-2 vs the RPI top 50
• Good Wins: at North Carolina State, North Carolina (twice), Michigan State, Duke
• Bad Losses: Wake Forest, Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State
• Remaining Games: Georgia Tech, Clemson

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Despite dropping a game at Minnesota last week, Indiana remains the #1 team in the RTC25 for the fourth straight week. In fact, Indiana was the clear choice for the top spot by garnering six #1 votes and three #2 votes. Duke and Gonzaga both follow the Hoosiers, but their average rank was 4.00 compared to Indiana’s 1.33, showing just how confident RTC voters were in picking the Hoosiers. Interesting to note that #4 Louisville also picked up a first place vote, and the argument can certainly be made that they deserve more consideration as the #1 team. Since losing three straight in late January, the Cardinals are 8-1 with their lone loss coming in five overtimes at Notre Dame. Further down in the RTC25, North Carolina finally makes a return tied at #23. The Heels were ranked #14 in the preseason poll, but have been unranked ever since Week Three. Winners of its last five games, North Carolina is playing their best ball of the season.

More good stuff with the Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

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1. New York Times: In one of the best, most entertaining college basketball games of the season, Duke outlasted Miami 79-76 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. There are two important notes from the game: one–which trumps everything by a wide margin–was Ryan Kelly‘s unbelievable return; the other was Miami‘s comeback that wasn’t meant to be in the final two minutes. Kelly was phenomenal, and Miami clearly had no idea what to do to stop him. Without him, Duke might have been blown out again. The second story is how the game changed in the final 120 seconds. Duke went from up ten to giving Miami a chance to tie or take the lead down the stretch. Free throw shooting woes (the Blue Devils went 4-8 from the charity stripe after going up ten) and turnovers were at the center of the collapse. Duke had a chance to execute and win by 10-15 points. Instead, Miami charged back and got two good looks at overtime. That says a lot about both teams.
2. Roanoke Times: It seems like a long time ago, but Erick Green couldn’t always score at will at the college level. His freshman year he averaged 2.6 points on less than 30% shooting in less than 13 minutes of play a game (with an offensive efficiency of 81.5 using 15.5% of his team’s possessions). This year he’s averaging 25.0 points a game on 48% shooting in over 35 minutes (with an offensive rating of 121.2 using a ludicrous 31.5% of possessions). That’s some terrific development. Green doesn’t get a lot of help from his teammates, Virginia Tech just isn’t deep or talented enough to compete on a nightly basis in the ACC, but he’s worth the price of admission on his own.
3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Joe Harris got much deserved love for his career performance in Virginia’s win over Duke last week. He’s one of the most underrated players in the ACC, and talented seniors like him (think Jacob Pullen or Mike Scott) deserve their chance to dance. But he’s not even the most underrated player on his team. Junior Akil Mitchell is a huge part of Virginia’s success. Against Duke he finished with 19 points and 12 boards (and held Mason Plumlee to a pedestrian ten and seven). Like two of Charlotte Christian’s other famous alumni (Steph and Seth Curry), Mitchell never got offers from the North Carolina schools. He ended up at Virginia, and his athleticism and strength anchors Tony Bennett’s pack-line defense.
4. Winston-Salem Journal: Wake Forest retired Chris Paul‘s jersey at its loss against Maryland. Paul may be the most fluid basketball player in the world (though Kyrie Irving has a lot of his playground ball-handling), and he’ll always be one of my favorite ACC point guards (right up with Ty Lawson, Greivis Vasquez, Tyrese Rice and many more). He led Wake Forest to two of the best offensive seasons in recent memory and was the best–and most fitting–player to suit up for Skip Prosser. Paul’s likability (save the Julius Hodge incident) is as strong as any player in the NBA. This was a good move by Wake Forest.
5. Charlotte Observer: The ACC Tournament is up for grabs this year. Duke and Miami are the definite favorites to cut down the nets in Greensboro, but don’t cut out a surging North Carolina team, a dangerous NC State team or a better-than-its-resume Virginia squad. At the bottom half of the league there’s a mirrored cluster of teams with Florida State and Maryland in the middle. Seeding is far from decided and it will be complex (expect a comprehensive post later this week), but the conference tournament should be a lot of fun.

EXTRA: Court rushing became a topic of much conversation after Mike Krzyzewski blasted Virginia security for not protecting his team from the throngs of students. First, Coach K has a history of deflecting attention after losses (though Kelly’s performance against Miami did more than this ever could). But there are very real safety concerns with court storming. Fans often get hurt, and it’s a surprise more players aren’t injured. Also, what would happen if a fan charged a player and the player retaliated? Most of the time, the onus is put on players to ignore bush league behavior from fans. But when things get physical, that’s not fair to the players. I hope the ACC doesn’t establish a fine for teams rushing the court, but implementing a uniform procedure across the league with potential fines for not maintaining safety is something more attractive.