We released the Official RTC Bracket for the South and East Regions earlier today — be sure to check that out if you need a refresher on our methodology for this exercise — and we’ll save you the fluff this time and cut right to the chase with the Midwest and West Regions. (note: our Final Four selections are after the analyses)

Quick Hitters From the Midwest Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #1 Louisville
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis
• Later Round Upset: N/A
• Three Most Disputed Games: #5 Oklahoma State over #12 Oregon, #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis, #2 Duke over #3 Michigan State

Four Questions About the Midwest Region

Louisville is the odds-on favorite to not just advance out of the Midwest Region, but win the National Championship. Which team has the best chance at dashing Louisville’s title hopes?

Does Pitino Have Another One of These In His Immediate Future? (Getty Images)

Andrew Murawa: After giving the Cards the nod as the overall #1 seed, the selection committee certainly didn’t do them any more favors, dropping them in, what is to me, the toughest region in the bracket. Once they get out of the Round of 64 in this region, Rick Pitino’s club could be facing nothing but dangerous clubs, from the nation’s best rebounding team in Colorado State, to one of the nation’s hottest teams in Saint Louis, to possibly Michigan State or Duke in the Elite Eight. All of those teams can beat the Cards. But the team with the best chance is certainly the Blue Devils, a squad that has already beaten them this season, albeit without Gorgui Dieng.

The #8 vs. #9 game is usually a coin-flip type of game, but it is a 100% consensus that Colorado State beats Missouri. Are the Rams that much better than Missouri?

Zach Hayes: The Rams are by no means world-beaters, but the consensus opinion probably stems from their ability to compete where Missouri excels: on the boards. Colorado State ranks in the nation’s top two in both offensive and defensive rebounding, a glass-crashing tenacity which should work to negate the rebounding prowess of both Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers. The confidence also resides in how shaky Missouri has been at the tail end of close games despite featuring an elite point guard in Phil Pressey. Most bracket prognosticators would rather go to war with a Rams team starting five seniors over Missouri’s constant unpredictability away from home, where their only scalps came against the dregs of the SEC.

Read the rest of this entry »

After clinching the ACC Tournament title with three straight double-digit wins, Miami was riding high. The media present in Greensboro — including myself — were riding a similar high after watching one of the best offensive basketball games of the year. It felt like a slap in the face to watch as the seeds were announced and the Hurricanes weren’t rewarded for their efforts with a #1 seed. It was the first time in history that the consensus ACC champion failed to earn a spot on top of a region.

Miami’s Eye Test couldn’t overcome its losses Selection Sunday. (Photo: Robert Mayer / USA TODAY Sports)

In Miami’s case, admittedly, a #1 seed was an uphill battle thanks to several bad losses in the non-conference and down the stretch in ACC play. First there was Miami’s game (without suspended Durand Scott) at Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are dancing this week, but only because of the Atlantic Sun’s automatic bid. Then Miami lost neutral-site games to Arizona and Indiana State when the team was very banged up. After the win Sunday, Jim Larranaga documented the injuries plaguing his team in Hawaii: “Trey McKinney-Jones was in the hospital with a 105-degree temperature, Durand Scott‘s back tightened up on the trip — he couldn’t bend over, Shane Larkin tweaked his ankle, and Reggie Johnson broke his thumb.”

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Facebook: If you haven’t seen this, it’s really cool. Facebook put together a county-by-county map of college basketball fans by conference, by team (in each region), and by rivalry. The caveat is that it only includes teams that made the NCAA Tournament. That means two regular powerhouses –Kentucky and Texas — weren’t included. But the maps make it very clear that North Carolina and Duke are the two dominant national brands in the Big Dance this year (I expect Kentucky would join them if they weren’t NITing it). The ACC owns a huge portion of the country — including much of the west, Alaska, Hawaii and Big East country (minus Kentucky and upstate New York). It’s also amazing to see just how regional NC State’s pull is (a couple tiny counties in Virginia and South Carolina are the only ones repping the Wolfpack out of the state). My only wish is that Facebook had a better visualization because otherwise this is gold.
2. Awful Announcing, NY Daily News, LA Times: Don’t fret NC State fans — pick your poison. ESPN released its newest addition to the 30 for 30 series with a profile of the 1983 NC State national championship team, Survive and Advance. The documentary has gotten nothing but tremendous reviews (with the one exception of this “bah humbug” critique that doesn’t make a lot of sense). The ESPN family of networks will be re-running the film throughout the month (upcoming showtimes can be found on the movie’s home page), and it’s the perfect way to bring in the wonders of March Madness.
3. Fox Sports South, Charlotte Observer: It’s no wonder the ACC media felt snubbed after the Selection Committee dealt it a seemingly tough hand only hours after watching one of the best college basketball games of the year. The reasons for the committee’s harshness seem obvious — though not consistent with years past: they emphasized bad losses, regular season and tournament titles, a strong non-conference schedule, and road success; they ignored the effects of injuries and marquee wins.
4. USA Today: It wasn’t just the local media surprised by the ACC’s seeding and snubs. Three of the “seven” (the final one just commended the Selection Committee for doing a good job) surprises involved ACC teams. The biggest surprise was that Duke and Miami were each relegated to a #2 seed while Gonzaga and Kansas each got #1 seeds. Truthfully, the reasoning for awarding the Bulldogs a top seed sounds like what the committee would say, but I don’t agree with it. Essentially they disqualified Duke for not winning the ACC regular season or tournament title and then disqualified Miami for having bad losses. That’s a cop out. However, far more troubling was the decision to put North Carolina in Kansas’ bracket (scheduled to play in the Third Round). This is a rematch from last season’s Elite Eight, and I believe Roy Williams when he says playing Kansas makes him feel physically ill (he even wore Kansas gear to the National Championship in 2008!). That’s totally unnecessary when it’s rather easy to move #8 and #9 seeds around.
5. Sports On Earth: Duke is the ACC representative in what Will Leitch names the 2013 NCAA Tournament “Region of Death.” The Midwest Region has seven (!) of the top 20 teams from Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. It has the number one overall seed, a team many believed worthy of a top seed, a Michigan State team no one wants to count out for many reasons, a would-be favorite sleeper Saint Louis team, and a woefully underseeded Oregon team (which is another area where the Selection Committee clearly ignored the impact of injuries). That’s brutal, but should be fun.

EXTRA: Want to know why you see so many of the same faces in stripes? It’s because NCAA referees are essentially freelancers. The top officials work upwards of 100 games a year, a ludicrous workload when you consider the brutal travel that can accompany the job. The good news is that the ACC shells out good money for its officials, giving the conference more leverage on what sort of schedule they can work. The bad news is there’s not a good solution to the problem unless conferences hired officials for the season, which seems unlikely.

Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), Midwest (11 AM), South (1 PM), West (3 PM). Here, Kevin Doyle (@kldoyle11) breaks down the South Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC South Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCsouthregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Kevin breaking down the South Region, which will drop both on the site and on iTunes Tuesday.

South Region

Favorite: #3 Florida (26-7, 16-5 SEC). A month ago, Florida looked like it was destined for a #1 seed and primed for a Final Four run to Atlanta. The Gators were dismantling SEC teams — albeit some very weak teams — and had their potent offense clicking on all cylinders. But then Florida lost at Missouri, and then at Tennessee, and then at Kentucky. Questions began to arise, and rightly so. A team of Florida’s talent and experience should not be losing to SEC teams that will not even make the NCAA Tournament. They seemed unbeatable in the 2012 portion of the schedule, but played down to their level of competition in the SEC. That being said, it would not be smart to pick against Billy Donovan. Donovan has led Florida to the Elite Eight the past two seasons, and done so with largely the same group he has this year. Two seasons ago it was a loss to Butler as a #2-seed and last year a loss to Louisville as a #7-seed. Of their eight impact players, seven are upperclassmen and have extensive experience in the NCAA Tournament. Veteran leadership and NCAA Tournament experience cannot be discounted, and Florida has both in spades. In the “for what it’s worth” department, Pomeroy has Florida ranked #1 overall in his season-long rankings (fifth in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency).

Is the Third Time the Charm for Boynton and His Gators?

Should They Falter: #2 Georgetown (29-5, 15-5 Big East). Recent history is not on Georgetown’s side as John Thompson III has made a habit of exiting the NCAA Tournament too early. In fact, in the six NCAA Tournaments that JT3 has led the Hoyas to, they haven’t made it past the first weekend four times. The Hoyas won’t win any style points, but that doesn’t much matter. What they lack in flash they have in tough defense and methodical but effective offense. Not to mention that the Hoyas are also fortunate to have Otto Porter, the Big East Player of the Year, on their side. The emergence of Markel Starks as a second dependable scorer adds another dimension to the offense beyond him, though. Their adjusted tempo ranks 313th in the country — in other words, a snail’s pace — and inability to score in stretches on the offensive end doesn’t make them a sexy team to watch, but Georgetown is very comfortable playing grind-it-out kind of games making them an apt postseason team.

Grossly Overseeded: #7 San Diego State (22-10, 10-8 Mountain West). The Aztecs began the season with a 14-2 record and a 2-0 mark in Mountain West play, and appeared to be the class of the league alongside New Mexico. Since that blistering start, San Diego State is a pedestrian 8-8 and finished 9-7 in the MW. It is almost unfathomable that the Aztecs earned a much better seed than Pac-12 champion Oregon — prepare yourselves to hearing a lot about the Ducks’ seed in the coming days —and even a higher seed than fellow Mountain West member Colorado State. SDSU benefited from having a strong RPI (#28) and a challenging schedule which ranked in the top 20, but many prognosticators had them wearing road jerseys in their opening round game, not home whites.

Grossly Underseeded: #8 North Carolina (24-10, 14-7 ACC). After getting embarrassed by Miami and then suffering a tough road defeat to Duke, North Carolina looked like it was headed to the NIT; the Tar Heels had a 16-8 record and were just 6-5 in the ACC at the time. Roy Williams’ young group may have had unfair expectations placed on it in the preseason, but there is little doubt that they should be an NCAA Tournament team now. Their talent and maturation as a team began to show in the second half of ACC play by winning eight of their last 10 games including a narrow loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament Championship. North Carolina’s seed was hurt by having a 2-9 mark against the RPI top 50, but the way in which Carolina concluded the regular season shows that it was playing closer to the caliber of a #5 seed and shouldn’t be marred in the dreaded #8/#9 match-up with the top seed looming.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ethan Mann is a writer for the ACC microsite. He can be reached at emann970@gmail.com.

Even taking into consideration that Miami won both the ACC regular season and conference tournaments and the fact that Duke lost on Quarterfinal Friday to a Maryland team that almost certainly will not make the NCAA Tournament, Duke still has a very strong case for a #1 seed despite what many analysts are saying. Yes, Miami, if they do not receive a #1 seed, will become the first team in the history of the ACC not to get a top-line seed after winning both the regular season and the tournament. It might be another story if Miami had knocked off Duke on the way to the ACC title, but defeating a #7-#8 seed North Carolina team in the finals for the third time does little (sans the “conference champion” label) to improve their profile. It seems a bit insane that Duke could be dropped from the overall #1 seed, as many analysts projected after their win against North Carolina last Saturday, all the way to the #2 line based on just this weekend’s results. Duke is ranked #1 in the RPI, has lost only once with Ryan Kelly in the lineup, and has no truly bad losses. At this point, through an objective analysis, the only team to consider as a lock for the top line is Louisville. Since the committee does not consider “regular season championships” or “conference tournament championships” nearly as much (or at all) in comparison to overall body of work, taking a look at all of the contenders for the #1 seeds yields these profiles:

Miami won the ACC Tournament, but did beating North Carolina, rather than Duke, really earn the ‘Canes a #1 seed? (USA Today)

Duke (RPI #1)

• 27-5 (14-4, 14-5 including tournament)
• Record against the RPI Top 25:  6-1 (Wins-Louisville [BE Champion], Miami [ACC Champion], Ohio State [potential B1G Champion], North Carolina x2, VCU, Losses-at Miami)
• Record against the RPI 26-50:  3-1 (Wins-NC State, Minnesota, Temple, Losses-at NC State)
• Record against the RPI 51-100:  5-3 (Wins-Kentucky, Davidson, Maryland, Florida State, FGCU, Losses-Maryland x2, at Virginia)
• Record against the RPI 101+:  13-0

Read the rest of this entry »

The games are over, and in a few short hours the speculation will be finished as well. Kansas and Kansas State highlighted the Big 12 Tournament with a highly anticipated championship game after they split the regular season title. Kansas completed the season sweep of the Wildcats and may have earned a #1 seed while doing so. But more on that in a minute. Iowa State and Oklahoma have been on the NCAA Tournament bubble for a few weeks now. The Cyclones likely solidified their spot in the dance with the quarterfinal win over the Sooners in Kansas City on Thursday. As of last night, the Cyclones were a #10 seed at Bracket Matrix, ahead of nine other at-large teams. There really isn’t a reason to worry about Iowa State making the field of 68 this afternoon, but crazier things have happened, I suppose. Oklahoma is in a tougher spot. They ended the regular season with a terrible loss to TCU, and like Iowa State, needed a win in the conference tournament to calm their nerves heading into today. Bracket Matrix still has the Sooners alive, however, as an #11 seed. They are ahead of seven at-large teams, so bracketologists don’t seem to think the Sooners have anything to worry about, either. But what about Kansas and a possible #1 seed?

Kansas Won The Big 12 Tournament Saturday, Strengthening Its Case For A #1 Seed (Nick Krug, KUSports.com).

It seemed impossible a month ago after Kansas lost three consecutive games and dropped to #14 in the AP Poll. But the Jayhawks started winning. And a regular season finale loss to Baylor notwithstanding, they haven’t stopped, going 11-1 since February 9. With two more RPI top 50 wins under their belt after beating Iowa State and Kansas State this weekend, the Jayhawks have put themselves in a good position to grab a #1 seed this afternoon. I said going into the weekend that Kansas and Louisville could jump Gonzaga if both teams won their respective conference tournaments, and I still believe so. But Duke’s loss to Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals Friday gives us more questions to answer. But let’s assume Indiana and Louisville are locks for top seeds. That leaves three teams that have separated themselves from the potential #2 seeds but haven’t quite earned the “lock” title given to the Hoosiers and Cardinals. That would be Kansas, Duke, and Gonzaga. Here is what the resumes look like:

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

NOTES FROM THIS UPDATE:

• Louisville is the new No. 1 overall seed in my bracket after dominating Syracuse to win the Big East Tournament Saturday night. Duke slides to a No. 2 seed after Kansas won the Big 12 Tournament. The Blue Devils have the better wins, but I’d rather put a team that was a double champion (regular season & conference tournament champion) above a team that didn’t win either one in the ACC. I feel like Duke has consistently been given the benefit of the doubt due to Ryan Kelly’s injury, but the Blue Devils’ second loss to Maryland showed that this team can lose to bad teams even with Kelly in the lineup.
• Although the graphic below does not reflect it, the brackets should be set up to allow for a true national title game, meaning Louisville (the top overall seed) and Gonzaga would not meet until the national title game. Louisville (MW) and Kansas (S) would have their regions matched up and so would Gonzaga (W) and Indiana (E).
• Mississippi reached the SEC Tournament final by defeating Vanderbilt on Saturday. I have the Rebels as my last team out of the field. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky (my last team in) head-to-head (although Nerlens Noel was playing) and lacks the great win the Wildcats have (Florida). Fortunately for the Rebels, they get a chance to change that later this afternoon against Florida. If Andy Kennedy’s team wins that game, we won’t have to worry about their bubble popping because they will already be in the NCAA Tournament field.
• I also still have Tennessee in. The Volunteers defeated Kentucky by 30 in their last meeting and have the best wins in the SEC outside of Florida’s. Although Mississippi swept the Vols, Tennessee lacks the awful losses that the Rebels have (South Carolina, Mississippi State).  Besides, if Ole Miss and Vanderbilt were playing in a normal game on a weeknight, nobody would care (like when they played on January 15 — nobody cared then that the Rebels won). Just because the Rebels won in the SEC Tournament semifinals, it does not guarantee them a bid and it doesn’t mean more than their earlier win over Vanderbilt. In my opinion, the Rebels need to win the SEC Tournament to secure a bid.
• Tomorrow, look for teams like Baylor, Maryland, and Middle Tennessee to start getting tossed around as names to replace Ole Miss and other teams near the bottom of the bracket. I think the Blue Raiders have the best shot out of those three to get in, based off the Selection Committee’s decision to place VCU, UAB, Iona, and BYU in the field in First Four games the last two seasons.
• This is not my final update, although my final update may look a lot like this. A lot just depends on how I’m feeling later today. I know that sounds silly, but I trust my gut when it comes to Selection Sunday.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Kentucky(last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi (first team out), Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Massachusetts, Baylor, Iowa

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Patton is an RTC correspondent and an ACC microsite writer. He filed this report after tonight’s Maryland-Duke game from the ACC Tournament in Greensboro.

Three Key Takeaways:

Ryan Kelly didn’t magically fix Duke’s defense.

1. Maryland’s offense is fine*: That disclaimer is provided if the Terrapins hit open shots. Maryland torched Duke most of the night, knocking down shot after shot. Duke deserves much of the blame for faulty rotations and miscommunications, but many of Maryland’s struggles this season have come from its inability to take advantage of the opportunities teams present to them. As a team Maryland went 40% (8-of-20) from three and a crisp 23-of-25 from the free throw line. Also Maryland had fewer turnovers than Duke (something that only happened three times in 18 conference games). That’s how to hold onto a lead — especially late in the game. The game wasn’t without mistakes, but those mistakes were far less prominent than usual.
2. Ryan Kelly didn’t magically fix Duke’s defense: A popular narrative the past two weeks or so is that Ryan Kelly fixed Duke’s issues on defense, but that’s not true. Dez Wells showed that an athletic player with the ability to knock down shots and penetrate can still wreak havoc on Duke’s defense. It wasn’t just Duke’s inability to stay in front of Maryland that was the problem, though. Duke also rotated poorly and when help defense did come, it was often ineffective. Unfortunately because of the small sample size of Duke’s recent games with Ryan Kelly, it’s hard to tell if this game was an anomaly or a crack in the foundation. Duke’s defense is better than this showing (teams aren’t typically going to shoot 92% from the free throw line), but it’s also a cause of concern looking towards the Big Dance.
   
3. Freshman poise: Freshmen for both teams played very well for their first time on the ACC Tournament stage. For Maryland, Mark Turgeon got very valuable minutes from Jake Layman, Charles Mitchell, Shaquille Cleare and Seth Allen. They didn’t score tons of points, but all contributed in other ways. Layman in particular was instrumental in guarding Ryan Kelly (who finished 3-of-11 from the floor) for most of the night. Layman also sneakily led the game in rebounding. On Duke’s side, Rasheed Sulaimon kept the Blue Devils in the gym during the first half. He was the only aggressive Duke player, finishing the half with 12 points in 15 minutes. Surprisingly, Mike Krzyzewski sat Sulaimon for the first five minutes of the second half.

Star of the Game: Dez Wells, hands down. As Dave Telep pointed out late in the game, Wells is from Raleigh and never got much interest from Duke. Whether or not that was the reason, Wells played like a man possessed, going 9-of-13 from the field and 10-of-10 from the free throw line for 30 points to go with six boards and three assists. Duke couldn’t stop him and every time Maryland needed a bucket, he stepped up big. He’s carried Maryland in both of its ACC Tournament games.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you love everything going totally to plan, then you loved the first day of the ACC Tournament. Will chalk continue to reign as the conference’s top teams join the fray? Well, it’s at least possible. Let’s go over the match-ups:

Miami vs. Boston College at 12:00 PM

What Does Hanlan Have in Store For Today? (Photo via Boston Globe)

Remember that time that an early season Miami team came within one point to losing to Boston College? I’m sure the Hurricanes have tried to forget it too, but it did happen. When the Eagles went to Coral Gables, Miami totally destroyed its overmatched foe, dominating nearly every aspect of the game. That’s what happened to nearly everyone who went down to Coral Gables this season, though. Yet, Boston College comes into this game hotter than a two-dollar pistol, having swept its last three regular season games (including a win over Virginia) and then dominating Georgia Tech in the first round on the wings of a  legendary and record-setting 41-point performance by Freshmen of the Year, Olivier Hanlan. This game may very well come down to the match-up at shooting guard with scoring sensation Hanlan trying to best the savvy veteran and newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year, Durand Scott.

Virgina vs. North Carolina State at 2:00 PM

In their first game of the tournament, North Carolina State showed something new — an ability to shut down a big time scorer. Though the Wolfpack has struggled on defense all year, the team held Virginia Tech’s Erick Green to 15 points on 19 shots and also forced him into four turnovers. NC State will need to maintain that concentration if this team is going to have any chance at stopping the equally deadly Joe Harris. The Wolfpack has the right personnel to stop the Cavaliers on the defensive end, but it will take some serious focus. Virginia won the team’s only match-up in Charlottesville by a mere 3 points, but in Greensboro, NC State will effectively hold the home court advantage. This figures to be the closest game of the day, but even so, counting on the Wolfpack to give consistent effort on the defensive end is an easy way to be disappointed.

Read the rest of this entry »

It hasn’t been the easiest couple of weeks for Big 12 fans. Kansas may have fallen off the #1 seed line and Iowa State and Oklahoma are firmly on the bubble after the first full day of the conference tournament. What once looked like possibly six Big 12 teams in the Dance headlined with a #1 seed could now be four teams and no representation on the top line. Baylor’s hopes for an at-large bid were dashed after a phantom call on Phil Forte in the waning seconds of tonight’s game against Oklahoma State gave the Cowboys a 74-72 win. Unfortunately for the Bears, they still needed at least another win over Kansas State to make a serious case, so there won’t be any favors from the selection committee. Here’s where the potential NCAA Tournament teams stand and how they can improve their position heading into Friday’s action:

Bill Self and Kansas Have Ruled The Big 12 Tournament The Last Decade.

1. Kansas (27-5)

• What They Are Looking At: #2 seed
• Best Likely Scenario and Who The Need Help From: If the Jayhawks can win the Big 12 Tournament and beat Kansas State (#20 RPI) in the championship game, they could still land a #1 seed. The problem is, Kansas looks to be sandwiched between Louisville and Georgetown right now. If either of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, they would  get a #1 seed over the Jayhawks. If Kansas wins the Big 12 Tournament and neither of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, the Jayhawks will earn a top seed.
• Worst Case Scenario: #2 seed

2. Kansas State (26-6)

• What They Are Looking At: #4 seed
• Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: Kansas State has a great record but its resume doesn’t quite match. They’re currently the second-best #4 seed over at Bracket Matrix, but have fewer RPI top 50 wins (five) than teams directly above them in Ohio State (six), Marquette (seven) and New Mexico (eight). Even if the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State and Kansas to win the conference tournament, they’d still have as many top 50 wins as Marquette, which lost tonight to Notre Dame. If Ohio State and New Mexico lose in their first games of their conference tournaments, the Wildcats could sneak into a #3 seed with three wins in Kansas City.
• Worst Case Scenario: The record is nice, but with 10 wins coming against teams outside the RPI top 200 and a bad strength of schedule (#63), a loss tomorrow could earn them a #5 seed. Read the rest of this entry »