Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Tonight we’ll see two match-ups that may be previews to conference championship games in the ACC and the WCC. All four teams are in the RTC Top 25 and both games should be fantastic. Let’s take a look at how things break down.

Senior forward Mike Scott takes his efficient offensive skills into Cameron Indoor for UVA's toughest test of the season (The Sabre)

#19 Virginia at #8 Duke – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Virginia has only lost one time this season and is looking for its 13th consecutive win. Playing at Duke will be UVA’s toughest test of the season. The Cavaliers play at a sloth’s pace. While their offense is nothing more than average, their defense has been stellar. They are holding teams to 27% from beyond the arc and are in the top 10 in the country in defensive rebounding. Although offense is not the Cavaliers’ strong suit, 6’8″ forward Mike Scott is one of the most effective scorers and rebounders in the country. Considering how slowly Virginia plays, Scott should be considered one of the top big men in the country. Keep a close eye on how he matches up with Duke’s Mason Plumlee. It should be a great battle between two future NBA forwards.
• Duke still possesses one of the top offenses in the country. The Blue Devils shoot an outstanding 41.7% from downtown. Much like Virginia, Duke knows how to get to the line. The free throw battle in this game will be extremely important. In both of Duke’s losses, two key statistics emerged. They did not get to the line and their opponent shot the lights out. On the season, the Dukies have a free throw rate of 51.5%, which is good for third in the nation. In losses to Ohio State and Temple, Duke had a free throw rate of 25% and 27%, respectively. Virginia does not put teams on the line, so it will be interesting to see how the free throw situation plays out.
• While it appears that this game will come down to Duke’s offense versus Virginia’s defense, the UVA offense actually may hold the key to the win. In Duke’s two losses, OSU and Temple both had an eFG of over 60%. Look to see if Virginia’s Sammy Zeglinski can hit his threes. Zeglinski is the Cavaliers’ top three-point shooter, hitting 31-of-74 attempts (41.9%). Also, keep an eye on Duke’s offensive rebounding. The Cavaliers’ defense will contest Duke’s three-point shots and the Blue Devils are a poor offensive rebounding team. If Mike Krzyzewski’s squad goes one-and-done too many times, the Cavaliers could pull the upset at Cameron Indoor. However, it may be too much to expect for the Virginia offense to win in such a tough environment.

#16 Gonzaga at #25 St. Mary’s – 11:00 PM EST on ESPNU HD (****)

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With last night’s unique, electric, and egalitarian college football championship game behind us we figured it was time to pull out our RTC BCS Poll. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the concept, we are applying the BCS formula to college basketball to see what the results would be if college basketball had a BCS system instead of actually deciding a champion on the court. We have done this each of the past three years. Here are the results from 2009, 2010, and 2011. The posts are from various points in the season (either midway through the year or potentially at the end of the regular season) This year we are going to try to expand it out a little further and track the changes essentially from the start of conference play.

The rules are essentially the same as the BCS and as in previous years (with a few upgrades):

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible, but we replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. The AP and ESPN/USA Today polls are used as the human polls and RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, Massey, Colley, and LRMC as the computer polls. The human poll scores are calculated as a fraction (in decimal form) of the percentage of possible votes (1625 in the AP and 775 in the ESPN/USA Today respectively). Like the BCS we remove the highest and lowest computer rankings from a team’s overall computer ranking. The highest and lowest rankings are noted with green and red boxes. In the even that there were multiple similar highest or lowest scores we picked the first one in chart.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

If there’s one thing I’m reminded of every January, it’s that winning on the road in conference play is incredibly difficult.

Ask Missouri, who came into their road game at Kansas State riding an undefeated record and lost by 16. Or consult Connecticut, who had a nightmarish week in New Jersey, succumbing to both Seton Hall and Rutgers. Florida would have a clue, as they were manhandled by rebuilding Tennessee. The same applies to Duke and Georgetown, two more top ten teams that lost on the road during this past week.

Needless to say, the rankings will experience a dramatic shakeup every Monday during a season where our perceptions are constantly in flux. After watching countless hours of hoops over the last two months, here’s how I see the top of the pack:

Fab Melo's rapid improvement has been a big reason for Syracuse's ascent

1. Syracuse (17-0, 4-0): There’s no debate over the best team in the Big East. With Syracuse’s first road game against a ranked team not coming until February 13, it’s looking more and more like a race for the league’s silver medal. The five players that Jim Boeheim shuffles off his bench – notably superb sixth man Dion Waiters, who could be their most talented player — could challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid by themselves. Their patented 2-3 zone is nearly impenetrable and Syracuse is second in block percentage and first in steal percentage, generating countless transition opportunities where they excel in the open court. No team has more depth or is currently playing at a higher level.

2. Kentucky (15-1, 1-0):  The Wildcats are not only sensational at this stage in the season, but with three freshmen and two sophomores among their top six players, they have the most room to grow of any team from now until March. This might be John Calipari’s best defensive team, buoyed by the shot-blocking artistry of center Anthony Davis, the primary reason why Kentucky ranks first in the nation in opponents two-point percentage (37%). The keys for the Wildcats over the next two months will be snapping preseason All-American Terrence Jones out of his perplexing funk and minimizing freshman point guard Marquis Teague’s turnover woes.   Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who plays with an unquenchable energy and can guard four positions, has been the best overall freshman in the country on both ends of the floor.

3. North Carolina (14-2, 1-0): Roy Williams’ team has an inside track at a number one seed due to a watered-down ACC aside from Duke. The common perception of the Tar Heels is one of a potent offensive arsenal and a soft defense, but Carolina ranks 12^th in defensive efficiency and puts the opposing team on the free throw line less than any other team in the country. Harrison Barnes is one of the nation’s top scorers, averaging 17.6 points per game on 49% shooting, many of those open looks courtesy of the nation’s top distributor in Kendall Marshall. What separates this year’s Heels from last year’s 33% three-point shooting team is the health of Reggie Bullock and addition of freshman P.J. Hairston as pinpoint outside gunners.

4. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1): There’s no shame in the Buckeyes two losses at Kansas (without star center Jared Sullinger) and at Indiana by four points. In Sullinger, point guard Aaron Craft and wing William Buford, the Buckeyes boast the best player at each respective position in their conference. Ohio State ranks first in defensive efficiency largely due to the perimeter wizardry of Craft, rank sixth in two-point field goal percentage at a robust 55 percent and are the most proficient defensive rebounding team in the country. One major flaw could be a lack of outside shooting; with no high-volume Buckeye shooting higher than 37 percent from deep, opposing Big Ten defenses may pack the post in an attempt to limit Sullinger and force Ohio State to beat them from beyond the arc.

5. Indiana (14-1, 2-1): Tom Crean’s rebuilding project is one year ahead of schedule. The most dramatic change has been on the defensive end where the Hoosiers have gone from tenth to fifth in the conference in defensive efficiency led by tremendous defenders Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey. Couple that with a 46% team mark from three, Cody Zeller’s efficient post scoring (66% from inside the arc) and Christian Watford’s emergence as an all-Big Ten wing, and it’s no surprise Indiana has pulled off dramatic wins over Kentucky, Ohio State and Michigan at a rejuvenated Assembly Hall. The questions that lie ahead: can Indiana win on the road in conference play, and when those threes inevitably rim out, will they be smart enough to consistently feed Zeller in the post?

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Typically, getting to the line is the province of post-up players and guys who slash and drive to the rim. Getting to the free throw line is important (it is one of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors), particularly for players without a consistent three-point shot because it allows them to reach high levels of offensive efficiency. To get the most out of post players’ possessions, it is simply essential for low-post players to get to the line. It’s hard thing to get better at and that’s why Mason Plumlee’s improvement in this area is particularly impressive. Yes, he is still a terrible shot from the line (averaging south of 45% for the past two seasons), but getting to the line is still a great way to increase offensive efficiency, no matter how lousy a shooter. Last season, Plumlee took 93 free throws and made 41 of them. Comparing these figures with his shooting from the field we can calculate (or at least trust Ken Pomeroy to calculate) a Free Throw Rate of 49.2%. This season, he has already taken 83 free throws, made 35, and posted a Free Throw Rate of 74.5%, good for second best in the ACC. This is impressive improvement, but exactly the kind of thing you would hope for with your starting big who is expected to handle an increased share of the offensive load.

What’s much rarer (and much more dangerous) is the combination of a talented three-point shooter who also has the ability to draw contact and get points from the line. A player with that combination of skills is particularly dangerous. This year, Duke is getting that from Ryan Kelly, which is, all things considered totally surprising. Last year, Kelly made 33 of 41 field goals and posted Free Throw Rate of 22.1%. This is a fairly low figure for your typical big, but last season, Kelly largely functioned as a spot-up shooter, taking open shots when available. For a guy with that kind of playing style, 22.1% is fairly standard. Sure, he could drive a little more, but you wouldn’t expect this number to rise too much. This is where Kelly has surprised everyone.

Ryan Kelly Has Gotten Better At Drawing Fouls, As Well As Avoiding Them On Defense

This season, Kelly has already made more than twice the number of free throws he made over the course of the entire past season. For 2011-2012 season, Kelly has made 67 of 81 free throws and has posted a Free Throw Rate of 77.1%, the best mark in the entire Atlantic Coast Conference. The versatile forward is drawing contact and cashing in at over triple the rate of last season. It’s an incredible improvement, and one of the biggest leaps I have ever seen a player make from one season to the next. Less impressively, but nearly as important, Kelly has stopped sending opponents to the line as much as he had in the past, While Kelly got called for 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes last season, this year he has trimmed the number down to 2.8. Whether it was Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching or something that just clicked in Kelly’s head, this new-found free throw-earning, foul-drawing aptitude is an incredible individual achievement as well as a significant boon for the Blue Devils.

With Plumlee’s and Kelly’s conference-best abilities at getting to the line, Duke has an added new and potent dimension to its offensive attack. Of course, the remarkable thing about this season is that it is not just the two forwards who are better at getting to the line. Austin Rivers seems to have an in-born talent for getting to the free throw line and Seth Curry and the rest of Duke’s guards have shown an increased eagerness to attack defenders and draw contact. The end result is that Duke’s Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts has shot through the roof. Last year, the Blue Devils were thoroughly mediocre in this category, posting a rate of 37.4%. This season, that number is up to 51.5%, good for third best in the entire country. For a team, this is a truly remarkable feat and one area where this incarnation of Duke is clearly head and shoulders better than the squads of recent seasons.

Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC columnist. His Love/Hate column will publish on Mondays throughout the season. In this weekly piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball.

Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED….a coach getting into the action. Not that we like to see anyone getting hurt, but who doesn’t love a clipboard-toting coach taking his turn in the layup line like Xavier’s Chris Mack? Unfortunately for him, his second uncontested drive to the hoop somehow ended up in knee surgery. We love the spirit, coach, but you’ve gotta remember – two steps, jump, and come down soft.

I LOVED….that a sharp-shooting Kentucky freshman got his $10K prize after all. Count on a big-chain food store to consider not doling out the prize because the participant’s foot was not completely behind the half-court line (Really, Kroger? Really?). Luckily they came to their senses, and the swish just made that freshman a very popular man on campus.

Mike Krzyzewski And Duke Took One On The Chin Over The Weekend (AP)

I LOVED….Duke taking one on the chin against Temple. And no, not because I’m a Carolina grad (though yes, I took pleasure in that capacity as well). Anyone who follows Duke knows that Coach K doesn’t go out of his way to schedule true non-conference road games. He greatly prefers neutral sites (where his team might play during the NCAA tournament) or home games against top competition. Now, Duke didn’t actually play at Temple, but still, a game against the Owls in Philly qualifies in my book. Though Krzyzewski is the one with four titles, I just find it hard to believe that the Blue Devils can’t use 2-3 of these games during the non-conference schedule to toughen them up for the latter part of the season. It’s hard to imagine that this loss won’t be a helpful building block down the road for a young team.

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The first week of 2012 was quite the week in the college basketball world as 15 Top 25 teams fell, and seven of these losses came to teams ranked outside of the Top 25. Needless to say, the contenders are beginning to separate themselves from those who were pretenders for much of the non-conference. The top five teams remained identical from the prior week, but there was a good deal of movement throughout the rest of the poll. Syracuse picked up seven of the eight first place votes with Kentucky nabbing the other. The Quick ‘n Dirty analysis after the jump…

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1. Washington Post: John Feinstein takes a look at the ACC’s mediocrity since the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College — despite a 9-0 vote against it from the basketball coaches — in 2004. Since then, the league has slowly become a two-team battle between Duke and North Carolina. Mike Krzyzewski faults the way the expansion was handled because it killed the round-robin for a system that benefits the same teams every year by having fixed playing partners (i.e., it’s fine for Duke and North Carolina because they get tons of exposure already and play each other twice, but Boston College plays Virginia Tech and Miami each year, which isn’t nearly as valuable).
2. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow takes a look at the Duke coaching staff, anchored by three guards who all played together in Durham nearly two decades ago. Jeff Capel has already been a head coach, but there’s little doubt that Steve Wojciechowski or Chris Collins would struggle to find a head job if they looked. The three also have a record of dealing with adversity at Duke, having played in the infamous 1994-95 season when Coach K took most of the year off to recover from back surgery and the Blue Devils finished under .500. Now they’re trying to help a team that’s facing some recent adversity, albeit a whole lot less, achieve its potential this season.
3. Orlando Sentinel: Apparently Florida State felt “optimistic” going into its ACC opener against Clemson. Well, as you probably know, it’s going to be tough to be optimistic coming out of the game now. The Seminoles allowed nearly 80 points and lost by a final deficit of 20 to the Tigers, not exactly the start they were looking for. Now, with no real marquee wins and six losses already, Florida State is almost certainly on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Seminoles need to turn things around very quickly.
4. Duke Basketball Report: Strelow mentioned it briefly in his article above, but Al Featherston also talks about the new positioning of Jeff Capel on Duke‘s bench. Capel now sits in the middle of the bench where he can talk to players as they come out or to try to get a feel for the team’s sideline energy. Two players I expect he’ll talk to frequently are Tyler Thornton and Quinn Cook, who Coach K has running the point together currently to help Seth Curry move off the ball where he excels. As the year goes on, expect Cook to see more and more time and Thornton to be used primarily as a spark plug at crucial junctures.
5. Charlotte Observer: The ACC is transitioning both on the bench and on the court. The conference has multiple new coaches for the second time in as many years, while freshman play an important role on most teams trying to replace the departed stars. That transition has shown so far in the loss column, where ACC teams combined to lose an astonishing 50 non-conference games coming out of the weekend.

I can’t help but be deliriously and feverishly excited about the beginning of intraconference play, but before we get down to brass tacks, there are a few things that we should probably be talking about before we settle up the conference pecking order. Let’s go over a few suggested topics of conversation before actual basketball begins.

1. Virginia is for real. The Cavaliers’ national ranking is totally deserved and barring injuries or collapse, this team is poised to make some noise in March. Mike Scott is the flavor of the week amongst the college basketball stat-erati because, well he is kind of killing it, but Virginia’s slow pace means that he’s not getting enough credit for it. The Cavaliers are certainly capable of taking down Duke or North Carolina and the team’s consistency is something that every other team in the conference envies.

Mike Scott Is Really Good

2. Scheduling is a double-edged sword. Both Maryland and North Carolina State have the talent to make the NCAA Tournament, but both also have some scheduling issues that might get in the way of these aspirations. Maryland has a daunting conference schedule that includes two shots apiece at Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke, as well as a non-conference tilt with Temple. That gives the Terrapins plenty of chances to register signature wins, but it also means that there are seven games on the schedule that are more likely to be losses than not. Conversely, the NC State Wolfpack has two games apiece against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Mark Gottfried’s team is likely to rack up plenty of wins, but they have far less opportunities to make an impression with a certain tournament selection committee.

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1. Grantland: It’s no secret that North Carolina and Duke are the top two squads in the ACC. But can Tony Bennett establish Virginia as their perennial challenger in the wake of Gary Williams’ departure? Shane Ryan breaks down Bennett’s pack-line defense, which has been the team’s key to success this season. We’ve talked about it a little before, but the screen-shots are illustrating. There’s never more than one player outside of the three-point line, which keeps more athletic teams from taking advantage of dribble penetration and forces them to beat the Cavaliers from deep.
2. Philadelphia Daily News: Dick Jerardi does a good job describing Mike Krzyzewski‘s career in brief and why he thinks there won’t be anyone else like him. I’d only add that the game has changed significantly since the start of the 1980s, which makes both Coach K’s success impressive and the likelihood of another coach like him even slimmer. He also briefly previewed Duke’s eventual opponent last night (who ended up winning), Temple.
3. Baltimore Sun: Don Markus checks in on Maryland and whether its record is a “true indicator” of the team’s current level. I think it is, but you have to remember the Terps’ opponents too. Mark Turgeon implied that he thought their record was generous. In the end Markus concludes that the Terrapins will be erratic, blowing out opponents or losing by 30 points to similar caliber ones because of their up-tempo pace and questionable shooting.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State knows it needs to get its act together if it’s going to make the NCAA Tournament. Leonard Hamilton isn’t as concerned with the wins and losses as his team’s performance. Basically, the biggest issue is (like most years) the Seminoles can’t score consistently from anywhere. But they whipped up on Auburn last night to tune up for conference play.
5. Baltimore Sports Report: The Baltimore Sports Report takes a look at the missing pieces of some conference teams. To be short (in my opinion): North Carolina needs a shooter; Duke needs a point guard; Virginia needs a shot-creator in the backcourt; Virginia Tech needs an inside presence; NC State needs consistency; Florida State needs scoring; Clemson needs a second option who can take over the game; Georgia Tech needs a go-to guy; Maryland needs significant contributors aside from Terrell Stoglin; Wake Forest needs rebounding; Miami needs a defense; Boston College needs everything.

Evan Jacoby is an RTC columnist and contributor. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s slate of games.

Over the past month, Duke had won five straight games and quietly risen to #3 in the AP Poll and #2 in the RPI without skipping a beat. But home victories over the likes of Western Michigan and UNC Greensboro won’t make fans forget about the Devils’ embarrassing 22-point loss at Ohio State earlier in the year, and it would take a strong road performance to erase those memories. Wednesday night showed the Blue Devils get thoroughly outplayed by unranked Temple in downtown Philadelphia, confirming the suspicion that Mike Krzyzewski’s team could be vulnerable both defensively and on the road heading into conference play. Coach K will need to refine his rotation and strengthen his team’s defensive intensity if they want to realistically compete with North Carolina for another ACC title.

Duke Had Major Trouble Defending Temple on Wednesday Night (AP/T. Mihalek)

Perhaps no team played as difficult a non-conference schedule as Duke, which would suggest that they are well prepared for their old familiar foes when conference play begins this weekend. The Blue Devils played Michigan State, Ohio State, Belmont, Michigan, Kansas, Davidson, Tennessee, and Washington as part of one of the most challenging schedules in the country. But Wednesday’s game against Temple was just their second road game (although it was played on one of Villanova’s two home courts, not Temple’s), and they were dominated in both. At Ohio State on November 29, Duke allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 60% on two-pointers and 57% on threes, amounting to a horrendous 130.8 efficiency rating for the Buckeyes. On Wednesday night, Temple shot 58% on twos and 50% on threes for a 114.7 efficiency. Considering that Missouri’s 126.5 offensive efficiency is the best in the country, it goes without saying that Duke is allowing its opponents to score way too easily in hostile environments.

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