Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started with Duke and North Carolina.

How do you judge Florida State? The Seminoles own two outstanding wins. Their 33-point win against North Carolina may be the most impressive win for anyone of the year. Beating Duke in Durham is nearly as impressive. Florida State’s other good wins are against Virginia and Miami. But Florida State also lost to Princeton. It also took a 20-point beating at Clemson to open ACC play and somehow lost at Boston College. The rest of the Seminoles’ losses came to likely NCAA Tournament teams (Harvard, Connecticut, Michigan State, Florida, Duke and Miami).

Michael Snaer Is Stepping Up His Senior Season.

Obviously, the Seminoles are dancing. They also still have a road game against Virginia and a rubber match against Clemson to improve their resume. As of right now I agree with the masses and think Florida State is in the #5 to #6 seed range. (That link is to the Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix, which takes 95 brackets into account before compiling the consensus S-curve.) There are legitimate arguments for seeding Leonard Hamilton’s team anywhere from #4 to #8 depending on how much you value non-conference play.

One important thing to remember is that Ian Miller didn’t play in the first semester. He’s one of the team’s better offensive players, averaging double figures per game. Combine Miller’s performance with Michael Snaer finally realizing his McDonald’s All-American hype in conference play, and there’s a reason the Seminoles look so different in 2012. Projecting Florida State’s success in March is more difficult than assessing the proper seed. This is a team that could go to the Sweet Sixteen (or beyond) if shots are falling. It’s also a team that could get upset in the first round if shots aren’t falling. We know the defense will be there (though the team’s struggles defending smaller line-ups during the last two games give some pause); but how far can Snaer and company carry the offense?

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

As the calendar flips from February to March and the college basketball world rejoices at the prospect of another rapidly approaching NCAA Tournament, it’s time to take stock as to where the top teams around the country stand. When the long-awaited tournament does commence, the path to glory evolves into a narrative predicated on matchups rather than rankings, so allow this to serve as more of a final snapshot as the regular season winds to a conclusion. Who is peaking at the right time? Whose style of play translates best into the grind of March? What perceived flaws could derail a run deep into March? Let’s begin with the team most currently resembling a seemingly unflappable juggernaut:

The Spartans crack the top 5 in the latest rankings

1. Kentucky (28-1, 14-0)

Locating a potentially fatal weakness in a team one buzzer-beater away from an undefeated record isn’t an easy task. Freshman point guard Marquis Teague, much like his predecessors at the position under John Calipari, has improved substantially throughout the season, posting 52 assists compared to 21 turnovers in his last nine SEC games. Their athleticism will render even the best man-to-man defense ineffective and the combination of Doron Lamb and Darius Miller can make shots over any zone look. Kentucky also boasts arguably the best perimeter defender in the country in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – whom Calipari utilized to suffocate Dee Bost in the second half of their comeback win in Starkville – and the best post defender in National POY frontrunner Anthony Davis (4.8 blocks per game and countless other alterations and denials). If there’s one nitpick it’s the fact Kentucky rates #84 in the country in three-point defense and rarely forces turnovers defensively; if Teague reverts to his sloppy ways, Lamb/Miller have an off-shooting night against a zone and a team is able to make jump shots over their length, Kentucky could slip in a one-and-done scenario.

2. Syracuse (29-1, 16-1)

The Orange still only have one blemish on their resume – a blowout loss at Notre Dame without indispensable center Fab Melo – but they haven’t exactly been blowing away the opposition the last few weeks, edging West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville and Connecticut by three points or less and barely getting by both USF and Rutgers with late runs. There’s room for improvement, especially on the offensive boards where opponents are snagging 38.3 percent of available misses, one of the drawbacks of playing every possession in a zone defense where no specific man is assigned to keep off the glass. They compensate for plenty of those second-chance points with the best zone defense Jim Boeheim has employed in recent memory and a capacity to convert a Dion Waiters steal (tenth in steal percentage) or a Melo swat (fifth in block percentage) into a transition opportunity where the Orange excel. Their enviable depth also allows Boeheim to shuffle in and out as many as ten different players depending on opposing personnel, foul trouble, the flow of the game and Scoop Jardine’s focus level.

3. Kansas (25-5, 15-2)

Thomas Robinson deservedly receives most of the accolades, but Tyshawn Taylor’s been the best at his position in the Big 12 since conference play began. He’s a matchup nightmare for opposing point guards because of his size, strong frame, quick first step and blazing end-to-end speed. Taylor is also efficient shooting the basketball from both inside (51 percent) and outside (44 percent) the arc while correcting his career-long battle with turnovers, committing just six or more in a game just twice during Big 12 play. With Elijah Johnson taking on more of a distributing role, Travis Releford as a glue guy defender and zero guard depth on the roster, the much-maligned Taylor has had to shoulder a heavy load and is a gigantic reason why Kansas continued their incredible streak of eight consecutive conference titles. Robinson and Taylor will pack a punch, but their prospects in March may come down to whether Jeff Withey can provide a third scoring option and Connor Teahan hits outside shots off the bench. Withey injured his ankle and played just nine minutes against Missouri, a loss that won’t be absorbed so easily in the NCAA Tournament against a bigger frontline.

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1. The Classical: This is a terrific article on Skip Prosser and his legacy at Wake Forest. Media and fans alike reference the Demon Deacons’ recent history of success a lot. They also talk about Dino Gaudio with mixed opinions. But rarely do they really talk about Skip Prosser. Maybe it was just too soon to have an honest conversation, but his death became the story. Matt Gallagher’s piece looks at the hope Prosser brought with him to Winston-Salem, the pride, the success and eventually the huge hole he so tragically left behind. If you don’t read anything else today, read this.
2. ACC Sports Journal: Speaking of Wake Forest, Ron Wellman is in a tough spot. Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum is outdated and too large. Recently, reports surfaced that Wake Forest might buy the arena from Winston-Salem. It was originally built to compete with the Greensboro Coliseum, but falls in the awkward 14,000-seat range that’s much too big for small “college” bands, but far too small for the big-time acts. If there was more interest, a large capital campaign might allow for a new arena to be built, but it’s going to be hard to raise ~$100 million for basketball right now. Between the lack of success on the court and the economy, now is just not the right time.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It may not be getting nearly as much publicity as Duke and North Carolina, but the Georgia Tech – Boston College battle tonight is for last place in the ACC. The bad news for the Yellow Jackets is they will be without their best player, as Glen Rice, Jr., will be suspended for the game. That said, they’re coming off their best win of the season against Maryland (without Rice), and beating the Eagles by four at home three weeks ago. Can they win their first road game since stunning NC State early in conference play? Is Brian Gregory’s system starting to take root? Tune into Raycom or ESPN3 at 7:00 PM to find out.
4. Orlando Sentinel: Florida State struggled mightily to defend the perimeter against Duke and Miami. Before they get too down on their effort, I want to point them to a series of articles that Ken Pomeroy has posted recently on defense’s effect (or lack thereof) on three-point percentage. Those should be comforting, but don’t ignore the problem. Miami played small-ball against FSU because of Reggie Johnson’s injury, which proved difficult for the Florida State bigs to guard — especially on the perimeter. Duke also played an extra-three-point-threat-heavy offense because of Plumlee foul trouble. Is playing small the best way to beat the Seminoles?
5. Duke Basketball Report: In honor of the date, Barry Jacobs took a look at all of the leap day games in ACC history. Duke is 3-1 in February 29 match-ups, with two wins coming against North Carolina. Meanwhile NC State has played seven times, losing four games on this date.

EXTRA: Jay Smith wrote an op-ed piece in the Raleigh News & Observer on the importance of the “student” half of student-athlete. The piece is directed specifically at North Carolina after there was backlash against a “statement of athletic principles” from a group of North Carolina professors. In the world of high-major athletics, my guess is that professors at most other ACC schools would agree. I personally think Smith undercuts the value of athletics, but I also understand his frustration.

EXTRA EXTRA: If you missed Duke’s game against Wake Forest last night, you missed the announcers and Blue Devils checking out late in the second half, as the Demon Deacons nearly erased a 23-point lead with a 19-2 run. Despite the remarkable run, the announcers kept talking about Saturday’s game. (h/t @RnR_NCSU)

1. The big news yesterday was in fact no news, but instead the upcoming piece by George Dohrmann on UCLA in this week’s Sports Illustrated. While most of the attention on the piece has been centered on reports of drug use at the school, which has been met by yawns by the non-media, but there are also supposedly reports of “abuse” that could paint a very bad picture of beleaguered coach Ben Howland. While Howland has what could be a phenomenal incoming class coming in, it will be interesting to see how bad this story makes Howland and the school look and if it brings more negative stories to the surface. [Ed. Note: The post is now available on SI’s iPad app and the Zip file for the article can be downloaded and viewed without an iPad or an SI subscription. Thanks to Jeff Eisenberg for pointing this out.]
2. In a bad relationship that one side wants to get out of? In many cases it will cost you some money to do so and for Texas A&M and Missouri that will be the case as the two schools will pay the Big 12 $12.4 million each to leave the conference and join the SEC in July. Fortunately, this settlement appears to have been much less contentious than for the Big East. While we have not found any articles explaining it, we would love to hear the rationale for the different departure fees especially for the two schools that left the Big 12 after last season.
3. ESPN GameDay will be at the Duke–North Carolina game, but one media “outlet” will not be there as Grantland, the pet project of Bill Simmons, was denied a media credential. Normally, this would not be a major issue as many non-mainstream media outlets get denied, but Simmons, who has over 1.6 million Twitter followers, tweeted out his displeasure with Duke and essentially declared a Twitter war with them, which will probably last until the next Blake Griffin dunk.
4. We still are not sure exactly what impermissible travel benefits the family of Reggie Johnson took that led to his suspension over the weekend, but the Miami center was reinstated yesterday. Johnson, who claimed to have no knowledge of these benefits, was only held out one game (a huge win over FSU) and will be allowed to return with the understanding that he will repay the value of the benefits to a charity. Johnson’s return gives the Hurricanes their best big man back in time for the North Carolina State game, but more importantly should serve as a significant booster for their NCAA Tournament chances.
5. Can rushing the court cost a team the game? Apparently it can as it cost Delaware State when their fans prematurely rushed the court and the team was charged with a technical foul for a delay of game giving Morgan State two free throws which they made to win by one point. We have not seen video of this, but as the article points out the officials may have erred here based on the NCAA’s rulebook and precedent from earlier this season where officials during the Creighton-Long Beach State situation handled a similar situation completely differently and in our opinion in a much better manner.

Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started yesterday with Duke.

Unlike Duke, though, the eye test is mostly kind to North Carolina. When the Tar Heels are firing on all cylinders, look out. There’s a reason this team lost by one at Kentucky (and had several chances to win the game). Only Kentucky can match North Carolina’s talent, and no team can match its frontcourt depth. But for whatever reason the Tar Heels don’t bring their A-game every night.

Tyler Zeller, ACC Player of the Year frontrunner, Needs to Demand the Ball (AP Photo/G. Broome)

It’s not from a lack of effort or preparation. There are just stretches when the Tar Heels become ineffective for whatever reason. I’ve seen people hypothesize it’s because Roy Williams uses his bench too early and too often. That may be true, but the problems seem to start when the team starts looking for jumpers instead of running the offense inside-out. North Carolina has four losses: against (basically at) UNLV, at Kentucky (by one), at Florida State and against Duke. The UNLV game featured a very good, fired-up team that hit every shot it took; the Kentucky game is the closest anyone has come to knocking the one-loss Wildcats off at home in a long time. That leaves the Florida State beatdown and Duke collapse.

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We are in the home stretch of the regular season. It would be sad if that didn’t mean that tournament play is in the air. After a high stakes weekend where Miami made its case for the big tournament while Virginia and North Carolina State faltered at a critical moment, this week kicks off with a fairly lopsided matchup.

The Infernal Showdown

• #7 Duke at Wake Forest at 9:00 PM on ESPNU

The last true road game of the season for Duke, the Blue Devils need to win this game to contend for a #1 seed. Duke should be more than up for the task, but they come into Winston Salem playing a Wake Forest team that has nothing to lose. After last year’s miserable season, the Demon Deacon’s forward progress is admirable, but when push comes to shove, this is a team that has only won four conference games. After a red hot start, Travis McKie has cooled down. Actually, outside of the still-incandescent C. J. Harris, the whole team has cooled off. With their season heading nowhere fast, Wake Forest doesn’t have much to do outside of ruin Duke’s day and make Nikita Mescheriakov and Ty Walker‘s Senior Night memorable. With the worst defense in the league and one of the worst offenses, Wake Forest would need an exceptional game (marked by frequent trips to the line, effective perimeter defense, and a lot of luck) to surprise the Devils. Still, it’s the last week of the regular season and strange things happen when teams play for pride.

1. Augusta Free Press: I don’t know how a StateFansNation post ended up on a newspaper’s website, but oh my does Chris Graham go off on the ACC here. Seriously, I’ve read my fair share of bitter editorials on message boards, Twitter or just personal conversations, but the conspiracy theorists rarely make it past “[Duke or North Carolina] got the benefit of several 50/50 calls” in newspapers. Apparently, Graham got tired of it after watching his home-state Virginia and Virginia Tech teams cheated out of a second half lead and “runaway,” respectively. There’s no doubt that it’s frustrating to be a fan of ACC teams outside of Duke and North Carolina: The two have historically dominated the league and the media coverage. But to say the ACC is a “stacked deck” is a little extreme. I’ll leave you with Graham’s closing thoughts:
   

   But we never really do anything that will actually have an impact – like, I don’t know, boycott en masse the season tickets of our favorite schools, to send a message with our wallets and pocketbooks that if the ACC is going to keep shoving the same crap down our throats and telling us to like it, well, then, eff you, we don’t like it.

   We’ll keep filling up our arenas and root like hell when we play each other, because at least then we’re on equal terms, and then when Duke and UNC come to town, we’ll fill the seats up then, too, on the off-chance that the refs won’t foul us out down to our walk-ons if we get a big lead, and we can rush the court in celebration of a win over the hegemons of Tobacco Road. [emphasis added]

   As long as we keep acting like the sheep that we are, change in the ACC ain’t never gonna happen.

2. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of “the hegemons of Tobacco Road,” Bubba Cunningham (North Carolina’s new athletic director) is in favor of a 128-team NCAA tournament. I hate the idea not because it will destroy the Big Dance like some critics say (it won’t; but it will dilute the value of winning a bid and possibly destroy the lesser postseason tournaments). My problem is that you’re adding an unnecessary round of games. That’s more travel; that’s more blowouts; that’s more fatigue. The Tournament would survive, but would the couple of upsets be worth an extra round of games? Every year we decry the bubble as the worst in years. Nearly every team is given an fair shake. Why add a round?
3. Gobbler Country: Below is a screenshot of philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s Ecce Homo. Take note of the first four chapters: The first starts innocently enough “On this perfect day…” The next three though? Not so much.
   

   Nietzsche Wrote The Definitive Philosophy. Gobbler Country Wrote The Definitive Case For Seth Greenberg. (photo credit: Amazon.com)

   That level of confidence was the feeling I got reading the title “The Definitive Case For Seth Greenberg.” Jokes about the title aside, I totally agree with Gobbler Country here. Greenberg shouldn’t be fired. He shouldn’t be on the hot seat. He made Virginia Tech basketball far more relevant than in the years before him. He’s done it with class and the program appears to be improving. Last year he brought in a Top 25 recruiting class. Things are trending upward even if this year is a rebuilding year.

4. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow took a shot at his All-ACC Team entering the final week of conference play. He also dropped some very valuable advice for voters: “[The All-ACC Team is] going to have a Carolina blue tint, and I’m fine with that, as long as voters don’t go overboard. And overboard means including four North Carolina players.” Skill-wise, North Carolina might have four of the five best players in the ACC. But all-conference implies a level of importance or dominance that can’t come from a team that may not even finish first.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Carroll Rogers does a great job profiling Paul Hewitt, who is still judging himself by the same standards he did at Georgia Tech. Now he’s trying to make the Big Dance at George Mason. Hewitt sounds content with his new gig, though that $7.2 million dollar buyout certainly makes the new job sweeter.

Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday.

The eye test isn’t kind to Duke. The Blue Devils rely too much on the three, play inconsistent defense, lack post presence, and only showcase one athletic creator (a freshman no less). That’s been the narrative all season. To a decent extent, it’s actually true. Duke looks very beatable. The team has many flaws and less talent than the great Duke teams of Mike Krzyzewski’s tenure. Some people point to 2009-10 as a comparison year, but that’s misguided too. Yes, Duke faced many of the same criticisms, but statistically Duke was a top team in the country (largely because of offensive rebounding and suffocating defense). This team barely cracks Ken Pomeroy’s top ten thanks to a recent defensive surge.

But no team in the country owns a better resume than Duke based on wins. Kentucky and Syracuse certainly deserve an edge based on not losing. No one here or anywhere else would argue those two teams don’t deserve top seed lines Selection Sunday, but the other two #1 seeds are a little tougher to choose. The candidates are Duke, North Carolina, Missouri, Kansas, Michigan State  and Ohio State. Joe Lunardi dropped Duke to the second line in favor of Kansas after the Jayhawks’ thrilling win against Missouri. I’m going to argue Duke should be above Kansas and Michigan State.

Duke's Resume Trumps Michigan State and Kansas Right Now. (Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

First things first, this argument isn’t based on projections. If Duke loses against North Carolina Saturday, things change, but for now the Blue Devils should be on the top line. They beat Kansas, Michigan, and Michigan State on neutral sites and they beat North Carolina and Florida State on the road. Their worst loss is in overtime to Miami at home.

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Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. 

Last week included much debate about some of the all-time great teams in college basketball. First, we released our RTC Mount Rushmore of the most significant people in NCAA basketball history, which featured discussion about the leaders of several great programs. Then, CBSSports.com released their ballots ranking the 16 greatest teams in college history, followed by our own Joshua Weill highlighting Rodrick Rhodes and his (lack of) impact on the 1996 Kentucky ‘Untouchables,’ the team ranked third all-time by CBS. Meanwhile, this year’s Kentucky Wildcats won another impressive conference road game over Mississippi State and outlasted Vanderbilt on Saturday to improve its record to 28-1 overall and 14-0 in SEC play. All of this got us to thinking: How historically great is this year’s Kentucky squad compared to some of its contemporaries? Let’s take a look at how John Calipari’s team matches up to some dominant modern teams.

How Strong is this Year's Kentucky Team, Historically? (AP Photo/ J. Crisp)

If it weren’t for Christian Watford’s buzzer-beating three on December 10, Kentucky would be 28-0 right now and in the discussion to go undefeated. Instead, Indiana got the win that day and quieted the Wildcats’ buzz for an extended period. Forward Terrence Jones had just four points, one rebound, and six turnovers in that game, concerning many fans that the team could not reach its potential without its go-to offensive guy playing at his highest level. But since that game, UK has cruised in its 14 conference games and Jones has been just fine, averaging 12.2 points and 6.7 rebounds in SEC play. Those numbers are way down from last season and far from the dominance we all expected, but with five other stars on the team this hasn’t been an issue. Shooting 49.6% with just 1.8 turnovers per game, Jones has been quite alright.

The rest of this Kentucky lineup is filled with pros at every position. Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, and Darius Miller all average double-figure scoring on the season, while freshman point guard Marquis Teague is at 9.6 points and 4.7 assists per game on the year. The three freshmen — Davis, Gilchrist, and Teague — are all projected NBA lottery picks according to DraftExpress.com, while sophomores Jones and Lamb are expected to be selected in the first round as well whenever they declare. The senior leader Miller may very well find his way onto an NBA roster too, as he is currently a top 25 available senior as ranked by DraftExpress.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Northwestern, Miami, BYU.
• First Four Out: South Florida, Colorado State, Dayton, Oregon.
• Next Four Out: Arizona, VCU, Illinois, UCF.

Click on bracket to enlarge and check out my latest bubble watch update here.

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke
• 2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown
• 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Wichita State
• 5 Seeds: Florida, Florida State, UNLV, Notre Dame
• 6 Seeds: Temple, Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton
• 7 Seeds: San Diego State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
• 8 Seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas State, Virginia
• 9 Seeds: Memphis, Alabama, Southern Miss, Cincinnati
• 10 Seeds: California, Saint Louis, Connecticut, West Virginia
• 11 Seeds: Long Beach State, Mississippi State, Washington, Harvard
• 12 Seeds: Seton Hall, Xavier, Texas, BYU, Miami
• 13 Seeds: Northwestern, St. Joseph’s, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel
• 14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson
• 15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Weber State, UT-Arlington
• 16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, Bucknell, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

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