On Selection Sunday, the brackets were revealed and five different ACC teams found themselves dancing. Poor Miami didn’t make the cut, but when all you have to point to is a win against Duke and Florida State, it’s hard to fault the committee for taking a pass. (Remember last year when Virginia Tech had a Duke win and two Florida State wins and didn’t make it? Seth Greenberg does.) In any case, five teams made the cut and have been matched-up and seeded. We’ll have more in-depth analysis of each of the games, but for now, I just want to take a minute and have a quick look at how the placement of each of the ACC teams affects the chances at a good run in the tournament.

North Carolina (#1 seed in the Midwest)

The Tar Heels don’t have a lot to complain about. Sneaking into position for the third top seed behind Kentucky and Syracuse, North Carolina is strongly positioned for a good run in the tournament. The top half of the Midwest is relatively weak, and UNC’s only reason for complaint has to do with the #2 seed. Kansas is the top #2 seed and if they meet North Carolina in St. Louis, there should be a distinct Jayhawk crowd advantage. By the overall seeding chart, North Carolina should have had Duke as the #2 seed in its region. Of course, since the committee seeks to avoid regions with the top two seeds in the same conference, the two seeds got shuffled around. Potential intrigue on the path to the Final Four? Creighton at the #8 seed sets up the Ames Bowl, where Harrison Barnes would get to face his high school teammate Doug McDermott, who has been having one of the best seasons in college basketball. Meanwhile, the presence of Georgetown, Michigan, and, of course, Kansas summons memories of past tournament showdowns: each of these teams was the runner-up  from each of UNC’s first three national championships. The Kansas match-up also would give us plenty of reason to re-run this amusing clip (not that we need any additional reason to watch it again).

Roy Won't Be Smiling If He Has To Face Kansas In Saint Louis

Duke (#2 seed in the South)

All in all, I think Duke made out fairly well.  Sure, they got stuck in the same region as Kentucky on the 20th anniversary of “The Shot”, but honestly, the championship runs through the Wildcats. If you want to win it all, you will probably have to beat Kentucky. The rest of the region is significantly less impressive. Baylor, Indiana, and Wichita State have all shown signs of weakness, faltering down the stretch. All of these teams are capable of great things, but it’s hard to expect consistent quality out of any of them. The team that stands out as maybe the most dangerous is UNLV. The Rebels have also had their troubles during the course of the season, but they have an element of danger and unpredictability that makes me think that they could offer some nasty surprises for their opponent. It’s reasonable to predict Duke to make the Elite Eight and if the Blue Devils can make it past Kentucky, the rest of their tournament will be a breeze. It sounds so easy when I say it like that, doesn’t it?

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1. Greensboro News-Record and Pulse of the Pack: I don’t like posting message board fodder here, but this appears to have some legs (that said, the letter has been pulled down from State Fans Nation). Reportedly, Debbie Yow wrote an email to several disgruntled fans about the actions being taken in regards to the ACC Tournament controversy. Basically (assuming the letter is true), it sounds like Yow is keeping fans overly informed with the inner workings of a high-major conference. Most of it is also unnecessary: Roy Williams’ “BB gun” comment is what it is, as is the Karl Hess situation. I expect this to disappear completely during the NCAA Tournament, but there’s a slim chance it resurfaces this summer.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of NC State, there are two things San Diego State head coach Steve Fisher complimented his upcoming opponent on during a recent news conference. First, the team is filthy in transition; and second, it’s very strong down low. Vegas also took note of NC State’s strong ACC Tournament, making the Wolfpack a one-point favorite over the sixth-seeded Aztecs. It should be a great game, and both teams have a very good chance of advancing fairly far in the Tournament.
3. Miami Herald: As you probably already know by now, Miami missed the NCAA Tournament. It’s not totally clear by how much, but it’s a safe bet that the Hurricanes were at least past the last four out, as they only managed a two-seed in the NIT (the NCAA now owns the NIT too, so you’d think the seeds would be semi-continuous). It was the school’s first winning season in the ACC. I think the Hurricanes could make a run at the NIT title, as Tennessee is the top seed in their region and appears on paper to be a very favorable matchup for Jim Larranaga’s team.
4. Washington Post: I don’t know if I agree with this post from Steve Yanda, who claims Virginia needs more production out of its bench. I think Virginia needs production out of the players who get playing time: If there’s an extended bench being used, it needs to be productive; if not, then why should it be? The two players in question are the replacements for Malcolm Brogdon (who broke his foot): Darion Atkins and Paul Jasperson. The two freshmen are going to get chances, as the Cavaliers only have seven available scholarship players.
5. The Chronicle: Mike Krzyzewski has a history of taking issue with an article from The Chronicle from time to time. If he reads this one, I expect him to take issue with it. I certainly did. Let’s start with the second paragraph: I agree completely that Ohio State punched Duke in the mouth, and the Blue Devils didn’t respond well. I totally disagree that Temple beat Duke because “talent doesn’t make up for not being physical.” The Plumlees are incredibly physical, often to a fault. Temple has one of the best backcourt trios in the country and exploited Duke’s perimeter defense and a strong home crowd. Duke also hasn’t been just “at the center of positive media attention” all year: How many articles have you read panning Duke’s postseason chances, perimeter defense or reliance on three-point shooting? Next up was this paragraph:
   

   Despite talent, impressive victories, a strong record and No. 2 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament, there seems to be a staggering lack of urgency within this year’s team. Because they have edged by with close wins all season and have only managed to lose six games, maybe this team did not fully understand that losing has serious consequences.

   Duke has talent, but not the talent people are accustomed to seeing. I’m not sure where the team’s “lack of urgency” comes into play, though. Sure, Duke’s second halves are often better than its first halves (especially against the first game against NC State, Miami and Ohio State), but don’t forget the games where Duke has jumped out to an early lead (the first game against North Carolina, Virginia Tech, or at Georgia Tech). Consistency is the problem, which at least in part comes down to whether the threes are falling.

Well, it’s all over. After a fantastic ACC Tournament (especially the final two days) the results are in with the conference getting the expected five bids. But before we move on to bracket analysis it’s time to think about the last couple of days.

1. Keeping It Heel: A lot of people recently have been making a big deal out of Kendall Marshall‘s minutes (he’s averaging 36 a game recently). And while it’s true that Roy Williams normally doesn’t like to play his guys more than around 30 minutes, Marshall is an exception for multiple reasons: (1) since Dexter Strickland’s injury there’s a big drop-off from him to his reserve, Stilman White; (2) the speed of his game comes from his passing, not his legs; and (3) he’s not particularly foul-prone. The Tar Heels need Marshall, and while a little more rest might be ideal, he didn’t look gassed at the end of the Florida State game yesterday (his third game in as many days).
2. Raleigh News & Observer: JP Giglio checks in with his recount of the officiating controversy from Saturday’s North Carolina – NC State matchup, including recounting the brief Twitter exchange between Marshall and Alex Johnson (who tried to draw the charge on Marshall’s game-winning shot). NC State conspiracy fans will blame Brian Dorsey: Dorsey worked the controversial game where Karl Hess tossed Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta; he called four of CJ Leslie’s five fouls; and he had the best angle of Marshall’s go-ahead layup with 10  seconds left.
3. Shelby Star: Leonard Hamilton and Terry Whisnant (a freshman guard averaging around eight minutes and two points a game) are the first Gaston County natives to win an ACC Tournament since 1987. Almost everyone talks about the big firsts (first time Florida State has ever won, first African-American coach to win, first team not Duke or North Carolina since 2004, etc.), but sometimes it’s cool to get a look at local emphasis. Gaston County started its ACC Tournament play strong behind Phil Ford and North Carolina, winning twice in the late 1970s, but the small North Carolina county’s conference postseason success has been dormant for the last 30+ years.
4. Orlando Sentinel: Welcome to the Florida State bandwagon everyone (I’m going to pretend I’ve been on it all year, ignoring the short stretch of games between the Clemson beatdown and blowout of North Carolina)! Now the question is can the Seminoles reach their second Final Four (the first came in 1972)… Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps both initially slotted Hamilton’s squad into the final weekend last night.
5. Independent Weekly: This article is a little dated (it was written after the ACC Tournament semifinals), but I love the author’s prose. I also think Adam Sobsey makes a good point that Duke was missing two key offensive pieces in Ryan Kelly (injured) and Andre Dawkins (AWOL). Dawkins has a history of fading down the stretch of the season, but Duke needs him to find his stroke for the NCAA tournament, or its potent three-point attack will be hurting.

EXTRA: A big congrats to Patrick Stevens of D1SCOURSE, who predicted one of the best brackets of the 115 tallied by The Bracket Project. Stevens’ bracket correctly identified 67 of the 68 members of the field, correctly seeded 38 of the 68 teams and only missed the seed by one of 64 of the teams. That’s incredible (for comparison Joe Lunardi got 67/35/61, Andy Glockner got 65/35/56 and Jerry Palm got 66/36/59).

VIDEO EXTRA: Thanks to @RnR_NCSU for this classic mashup of NC State’s selection reaction with Maury.

1. The decision by Illinois to fire Bruce Weber  (his press conference reaction here) was probably the most speculated on move this season, but when the school did so it was met with swift reaction. The most notable was Michigan State coach Tom Izzo who said that he and his wife shed tears over the firing although we aren’t clear if they were actual or symbolic tears. The firing was also probably the most significant so far this season as it opens up one of the premier jobs in the country, which could lead to a cascade of movement on the annual coaching carousal.
2. After putting up with three seasons of relatively futility this was supposed to be a glorious March for Verdell Jones, but those dreams came to a crashing halt as he tore his right ACL during Indiana‘s win over Penn State. The loss of Jones, who finishes his career at #23 on the all-time scoring list at the school, appears to have hit the Hoosiers hard and will make their path through the South Region even more difficult. The Hoosiers have the talent to cover up for Jones over brief periods of time, but the experience he gained from his 103 starts will be hard to recreate late in games.
3. Over the next three weeks you are going to be seeing plenty of video of Christian Laettner, but the one thing you would see or hear mentioned much is that the Duke great will appear in court this week along with his former teammate Brian Davis in the ongoing case regarding loans they took out on real estate investments. Looking through some of the names involved in this case (including Johnny Dawkins) this could turn into a college basketball media circus as more details come out.
4. While Weber garnered the majority of the headlines over the weekend, two more coaches were fired over the weekend. At Nebraska, Doc Sadler was fired after going 12-18 this season leading Tom Osbourne, the school’s athletic director, to decide to move in a new direction. Meanwhile, Tulsa fired Doug Wojcik, who was the school’s all-time leader in wins, citing a 35% decline in season ticket sales among the reasons. To us, the biggest reason for his firing and the one that probably most directly impacted season ticket sales was the lack of a NCAA Tournament appearance in seven seasons despite a 139-89 record including two 25-win seasons.
5. We tried to keep the selection of NCAA Tournament teams out of this Morning Five, but Miami and Durand Scott would not let us. Late on Friday, the school announced that the NCAA had declared Durand ineligible for taking impermissible benefits. The time of the suspension, the third for the Hurricanes this season (all for different players), could not have come at a worse time for the team as they were just about to play a game against Florida State, which they lost. Although we cannot definitely say that they would have made the NCAA Tournament had they won that game, they were one of the first four teams left out and a win over a team that would have been a #5 seed at worst probably would have put them over the top. Instead, they are let with nobody to blame, but themselves (and possibly their former head coach).

Florida State won a very good game with Duke. It wasn’t a pretty game, but it was a hard-fought battle that the Seminoles deserved to win.

• Once again we got a chance to see the heart of this Duke team. Down ten early in the second half, nearly everyone–myself included–thought Duke might fold with its offense struggling (the Blue Devils committed 14 turnovers in the first half alone). Instead Duke came back to take the lead with five minutes left. The Blue Devils ended up losing, but the resilience of this squad definitely impresses me more than anything else. Duke showed it could play physical, something the Plumlees don’t get enough credit for, and that it can hang with good teams without shooting lights out from three.
  

  Bernard James Is 27, but only Started Playing Basketball in the Air Force.

• After the game Mike Krzyzewski said Michael Snaer is the “best competitor in our league.” Yesterday’s game was definitely supporting of that. In addition to playing the best defense on the court, he immediately hit the second-biggest shot in the game right after Duke took a 2-point lead with 3:40 to play. He’s one of those players that’s just unreal to watch from the court level: he never gives up on plays and makes it impossible to be comfortable offensively.
• After the game a reporter asked Leonard Hamilton about his team’s experience (the Seminoles have six seniors and graduate transfers on their roster). Hamilton pointed out that most of the team didn’t actually have that much experience. The team has transfers (Jeff Peterson), players new to basketball (Bernard James), and many players with much more expanded roles (Luke Loucks). There’s a reason Florida State started so slowly.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Saturday, March 10, 11:14 PM ET.

• NC State drops two spots on the S-Curve out of the NCAA Tournament field, moving Seton Hall in. The reason: NC State’s neutral court win on Friday over Virginia and sweep of Miami decreased in value in the last 24 hours. Virginia plummeted to a #52 RPI and Miami dropped out of the projected field following their loss to Florida State and Durand Scott’s ineligibility.
• Colorado wins the Pac-12 automatic bid and will likely be a #13 seed in the field. Arizona is not on the bubble. Ohio replaces Akron as the MAC auto bid.
• The final #1 seed will come down to the Big Ten Tournament final, so the committee may have two different brackets prepared in case either Michigan State or Ohio State emerge victorious. I believe the winner will surpass Kansas for the last #1 seed in the Phoenix region as the champion of both a share of the regular season title and the tournament title of the top conference in college basketball. Kansas beat Ohio State, but that game was played in Lawrence without Jared Sullinger, a fact the committee should consider.
• New Mexico jumps to a #6 seed with a share of both the regular season MWC title, conference tournament title and two wins against UNLV and San Diego State. On the back of a solid RPI/SOS and the huge win over North Carolina, the Rebels are also a #6 seed.

• Last Four In: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Drexel, Texas.
  
• First Four Out: NC State, Miami (FL), Washington, Oral Roberts.
  

3/10 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Kansas

2 Seeds: Michigan State, Ohio State, Duke, Missouri

3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida State, Wisconsin, Indiana

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, Temple, Vanderbilt

6 Seeds: Florida, New Mexico, UNLV, Cincinnati

7 Seeds: Creighton, Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s, Memphis

8 Seeds: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Kansas State

9 Seeds: Purdue, Saint Louis, Connecticut, Alabama

10 Seeds: Harvard, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, BYU, VCU, Long Beach State

12 Seeds: California, Xavier, South Florida, Texas, Drexel

13 Seeds: Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Colorado, Davidson, Belmont

14 Seeds: New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Montana, Ohio

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Detroit, Lehigh, LIU-Brooklyn

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Lamar, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Vermont, Xavier, North Carolina, Belmont, Missouri, Louisville, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Ohio, Norfolk State, Creighton, New Mexico, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Colorado, Lehigh, Kentucky, Davidson, Lamar, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, New Mexico State.

Bids per conference: Big East (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (5), Mountain West (4), ACC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), West Coast (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Colonial (2), Pac-12 (2).

1. Miami Herald: The biggest news to break late on Friday was the suspension of Miami‘s leading scorer Durand Scott. Scott has been deemed ineligible by the NCAA due to impermissible benefits and the Hurricanes weren’t informed until around 5:30 PM yesterday.  Without Scott, Miami didn’t have the firepower to beat Florida State and succumbed to their in-state rivals. Scott is the third player to be suspended because of the on-going NCAA investigation at Miami. Reggie Johnson was suspended for a single game before being reinstated and DeQuan Jones missed the first ten games of the season before his reinstatement. While Miami has to hope that Scott will be swiftly reinstated, the timing could literally not be worse: the Hurricanes are right on the edge of the field and Selection Sunday is tomorrow.
2. Basketball Prospectus: While yesterday’s wisdom held that Miami and North Carolina State each had to win one more game to make it to the Tournament, at least one system already had the Wolfpack and Hurricanes in. While, NC State almost assuredly played themselves into the tournament by toppling Virginia, Miami’s situation is much more interesting. It seems like most folks have Miami pretty squarely out, but the Easy Bubble Solver’s projections offer some cause for optimism in Coral Gables.
3. ESPN: The big news in Chapel Hill was the awkward fall of North Carolina‘s John Henson. Though x-rays indicated that he didn’t break his left wrist which he was using to brace himself, clear discomfort prevented him from being a factor in the game against Maryland. While there’s no word yet on whether Henson will play today, history is skeptical. Roy Williams hasn’t been shy about his indifference to the ACC Tournament. In 2009, the stacked Tar Heels and eventual national champions lost the conference tournament while Williams held out Ty Lawson who was coming off a toe injury. If Henson really wants to play, the coaching staff will probably allow it, but this game seems to mean little to the folks in Chapel Hill.
4. News and Observer:  In the inevitable benchmark category, Kendall Marshall‘s 12 assists against Maryland gave the North Carolina guard the single-season ACC record for assists. Now with 311 assist this season, Marshall surpassed Georgia Tech’s Craig “Noodles” Neal. Of course, Marshall still trails Iona‘s Scott Machado for the most assists on the 2012 season. Machado has 117.
5. Durham Herald-Sun: With Ryan Kelly sitting out this weekend’s tournament with an injury, Duke had to dig a little deeper for some front court help in yesterday’s game. Josh Hairston got the call and responded by playing 17 solid minutes for the Blue Devil’s. His individual statistics aren’t going to blow anyone away, but he seems happy to help his team get the win. Hairston and Duke’s forwards will be tested against the platoons of athletic big men that Florida State sends out . It’s a stern test for Hairston, but one that will only help his team moving forward.

Duke ground out a 60-56 win over Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies their twelfth loss by five points or less this season.

• This game was nearly as ugly as the Miami-Georgia Tech slugfest last night. Tyler Thornton and Austin Rivers combined to take 57% of Duke’s shots. And while it wasn’t pretty, both guys came up with the big plays when Duke needed them. Rivers kept the team in business at the beginning of the game before letting his frustration get the better of him. It was his full-court sprint for a tipped ball that iced the game after he completed the and-one. Thornton was more important defensively, coming up with three steals, but he also deserves credit for knocking down a very big three to put Duke’s lead back at eight when it looked like the Hokies were making a push.
  

  Ryan Kelly Is Critical For Duke's Success This Month

• Virginia Tech’s offense needs work this offseason. A lot of it. The Hokies waste way too much time on offense. Duke played decent defense, and Seth Greenberg mentioned slowing the game down as part of the game plan. But successful clock-chewing teams squeeze 25-30 seconds out of every possession and take good shots (see: Wisconsin). Robert Brown’s 3-3 halftime stat line, and offensive rebounding were the only bright spots. The Hokies’ defense was very effective though. It forced Duke’s offense to flow through Thornton, and made it very hard for Duke to get the ball inside (though once the ball got into the lane, the Blue Devils were effective scoring).
• The Blue Devils really need a healthy Ryan Kelly to make a run in March. Without Kelly Duke’s bench only managed six points. His absence also spotlights frontcourt depth issues. Mason Plumlee played a very “intelligent” game according to Mike Krzyzewski, but both Plumlees are liable to pick up fouls. Kelly’s ability to stretch the defense would’ve opened up the lane a lot more for Rivers to drive and the Plumlees to post.

We’re in the middle of Championship Week and roughly 80 hours away from learning the names of the 68 teams that will compete in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Most of the elite teams have yet to suit up in their conference tourneys so we thought it would be a good time to take another look at how Vegas bookmakers are viewing the best teams heading into this final weekend prior to the bracket release on Sunday. We ran through this exercise in both the preseason and again in December before conference season got under way, so it’s always instructive to see how the perception of teams has changed in the eyes of those who make their livelihoods from knowing such things. Although there’s been a good amount of movement among the top 10 teams on our list, the top two have remained Kentucky and North Carolina with a bullet, far above the rest of the field all season long. As the season has progressed, Vegas has gotten even more in these two teams’ corners, at this point suggesting that combined (and normalized to 100% total among all teams) the Wildcats and Tar Heels have a 33.7% chance of cutting down the nets in New Orleans. One in three — not bad at all.

*The remaining listed schools were too numerous to name, but they included most of the remainder of the power conference teams.

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1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) – It’s funny how the difference between a successful season can come down to one game. Had North Carolina lost to Duke at Cameron, people would’ve pointed to the Tar Heels’ lofty preseason expectations and how they came up short. Instead, Roy Williams’ squad finally showed the world just why it was ranked so high early in the season. Kendall Marshall hit shots, the defense clicked and the game felt over by the first media timeout. Now the Tar Heels have the inside track for a one-seed, owning the head-to-head victory with Michigan State that will definitely come in handy. There are still legitimate questions about North Carolina’s intensity, but if that intensity is in the ballpark of Saturday night opponents should be scared. Don’t pencil the Tar Heels into the Final Four before seeing the ACC Tournament. This team’s worst enemy until the final weekend will be itself. One person in particular to keep you eye on is Marshall. He was snubbed from first-team All-ACC (he missed by two votes), so I expect him to come out aggressively Friday. He’s also shows recent offensive improvement, coming up with two of his best performances of the year in rivalry games against NC State and Duke. When he’s taking and hitting open looks, the Tar Heels are impossible to guard.
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