Throughout conference tournament weekend, we’re going to pop in with some BGTD-style analysis at least twice a day.  Here’s Friday afternoon’s coverage…

• OSU Survives.  Northwestern seems to play the #1 Buckeyes as well as anybody, taking Thad Matta’s team to the brink twice this season, and losing both.  No other Big Ten team played OSU as closely as the Wildcats did this year, not even Purdue and Wisconsin, the two teams who beat the Buckeyes once each but were blown out in Columbus.  Jared Sullinger did his thing dominating the inside (20/18), but the key takeaway from this game is that in two contests this season, Bill Carmody has found a way to slow down Jon Diebler’s scorching three-point attack.  Recall that Diebler had hit a ridiculous 17-20 in his last two games and is over 50% for the season, but in the close games against the Wildcats, Diebler was only 2-8 from deep and 5-14 overall.  Slowing him down is absolutely essential to knocking off the Buckeyes, so you’d better believe that coaches over the next three weeks will be studying the Northwestern game films very carefully for clues.
• Michigan Surges. We couldn’t really figure out what happened to the Wolverines last season, but we knew that something was structurally wrong because John Beilein is an excellent coach.  He’s proving it again this year, as Michigan has now won nine of 12 games after today’s comeback victory over Illinois, with the three losses being by one point to Wisconsin, two points at Illinois and eleven points at #1 Ohio State.  At the under-8 timeout, the Wolverines were down nine points and struggling to put points on the board (only 42); from that point on, UM went on an 18-4 run, holding Illinois to a single field goal down the stretch by making several big plays to finish it off.  Michigan is playing well, and their style is very difficult to prepare for — don’t be surprised if Darius Morris, Tim Hardaway, Jr., and company give the Buckeyes all they want tomorrow and make a run at the Sweet Sixteen next week.
• Carolina: Master of Close Wins.  Everyone knows that the Tar Heels have been on fire, winning eight in a row and thirteen of their last fourteen games and making a case for an outside shot at a #1 seed next week.  What’s interesting to us is how Roy Williams’ relatively young team is consistently  coming back to win close games — today’s buzzer-beater by Tyler Zeller underneath against Miami (FL) is only the latest example.  The Heels were down nineteen points with around ten minutes to go, but somehow, someway, led by Kendall Marshall’s artistry and some timely three-point shooting, they went on a 27-6 run to close out the game and get the victory to move into the ACC semifinals.  Whether these close wins against average competition (six ACC wins by one possession) represents a weakness or a strength, we’re not quite sure, but Carolina is showing an ability to make the right plays in the clutch.
• Do You Leave Alabama Out? If the intent of the NCAA Tournament is to invite the 37 best at-large teams to dance, then we’re not sure you can leave Alabama out of the NCAA Tournament.  In a recurring theme this weekend, the Tide roared back from fourteen down in the last seven minutes to force overtime where they were then able to pull out the key victory against Georgia.  That gives Anthony Grant’s team 13 SEC wins out of 17 tries, and although the conference is exceptionally weak, especially on the West side, it’s difficult for us to fathom that Alabama isn’t one of those top 37 right now.  We think the Committee will see it the same way, and Alabama will be in one of the First Four games on Tuesday or Wednesday night.
• A-10 Craziness.  The top half of the Atlantic 10 bracket was blown up this afternoon with #9 seed Dayton getting out to a big lead early against #1 Xavier and holding on down the stretch; and, #12 St. Joseph’s knocking out #4 Duquesne in overtime.  This sets up a Saturday semifinal between a #9 and a #12 seed that nobody who follows this league could have seen coming.  Bubble teams around the country are rooting for #2 Temple to run its way to the title game and easily handle one of these two; otherwise, the Atlantic 10 will be guilty of bid larceny on Sunday.
• Bubbling Up.  Clearly, Alabama, who may have played its way into the First Four with today’s win over Georgia… Clemson, who crushed BC in a possible knockout game in the ACC Tourney…
• Bubbling Down.  Georgia, who may have played its way out of the Tournament with its collapse and unfortunate timing on the time out at the end of regulation…  Boston College, who never showed up against Clemson…

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

One auto bid and a host of major conference games are on tap today, two days out from Selection Sunday. The afternoon session features plenty of bubble teams making their closing arguments to the Selection Committee. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

SEC Quarterfinals (at Atlanta, GA): Georgia vs. Alabama – 1 pm on ESPN FullCourt (***)

We’ve heard all kinds of things about this game from an elimination game to a play-in game. Whatever it may be, one team will be looking better than the other by the time it’s over. Alabama beat Georgia in the regular season finale six days ago and now they meet again in another game with major NCAA implications. RTC’s resident bracketologist had Georgia in and Alabama the first team on the “out” list as of last night while Joe Lunardi over at ESPN has the Bulldogs as the last team in the field and the Crimson Tide in the same position as RTC. This game will be played almost exclusively in the paint as neither team shoots it well from deep. Both teams rank in the top 20 in interior defense but Georgia has to avoid turnovers to win. Alabama thrives on giveaways despite their slower tempo, ranked #28 in defensive turnover percentage. Georgia committed 16 turnovers in the loss to the Tide last week and lost the game despite out-shooting Alabama from the floor. Senario Hillman leads Alabama in steals and will look to harass the Georgia guards all game long. The battle in the paint between Trey Thompkins and JaMychal Green could determine the outcome of the game if the Bulldogs don’t turn it over often.

Big Ten Quarterfinals (at Indianapolis, IN): Michigan vs. Illinois – 2:30 pm on ESPN (***)

Illinois is generally considered to be in the field of 68 but Michigan could really use a win. The Wolverines are likely in as of now but a loss here and other results around the country could make it a very close call on Sunday. The Illini won the only meeting of the regular season, a two point win in Champaign on February 16. Michigan protects the ball very well but rebounding and defense did them in against Illinois in that game. John Beilein would love to play this game in the half court where his team can probe and dissect the Illinois defense, although the Illini rank tenth in three point defense and Michigan fires up almost 23 triples per game. With two dynamic playmakers in Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr, Michigan can break a team down off the dribble of spot up for a three. This is a game they definitely can win but a better effort on the glass is needed. Michigan ranks near the bottom of D1 in offensive rebounding percentage (that will happen when you shoot so many threes) and was out-rebounded in the loss to Illinois last month.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Friday, 1:34 AM ET.

First 4 Byes: Richmond, Colorado, Saint Mary’s, Michigan.

Last Four In: Clemson, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Penn State.

First Four Out: Georgia, Boston College, Southern California, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Louisville, Connecticut
• 4 Seeds: Purdue, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, Arizona, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Xavier
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Temple, Missouri
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State, UNLV
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, Gonzaga, Florida State, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Washington, Villanova, Michigan State, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Illinois, Richmond, Colorado, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Clemson, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Hampton, Alabama State
  

Note: Full bracket coming Saturday morning, Sunday morning and Sunday just before the Selection Show.

Changes on 3/12 at midnight:

• Notre Dame holds on to the final #1 seed but flips with Pittsburgh, sending the Irish to the Anaheim region. Duke has a chance to pass Notre Dame if they win the ACC Tournament.
• Louisville and Connecticut both move to the #3 seed line by advancing to the Big East Tournament final. Purdue’s second straight loss moves them down to a #4 seed to make way for the Cardinals and Huskies.
• Virginia Tech remains in the field with their dramatic win over Florida State. A loss would have dropped them out.
• Penn State barely edges Georgia for the last spot in the field following their upset of Wisconsin.

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the ACC. With conference tournament action set to tip from Greensboro on Thursday, get set for March Madness with RTC’s regular season wrap-up and postseason outlook.

Postseason Preview

North Carolina is hot.  It took almost all of the regular season, but the Tar Heels are finally living up to preseason hype.  UNC  should definitely be favored to win the ACC Tournament, but I wouldn’t bet on them.  I think the Heels are due for one more hiccup before the Big Dance.  They’ve flirted with disaster a couple of times and are coming off a huge win against Duke.  It’s tough to keep a young team focused, and this team starts two freshmen and two sophomores.  I also expect Duke to be playing with real purpose after the beatdown in Chapel Hill as it fights for a top seed.

As far as the bubble is concerned, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Boston College all need wins.  I don’t think any of them are safe at this point (which is the unfortunate part of Clemson clinching the bye).  Unfortunately, Clemson and Boston College will probably meet in the second round in a de facto “win and in” game.

Besides interesting bubble match-ups, look out for Duke and Maryland in the second round.  Maryland has been down this year, but the Terps never back down from a fight (especially one with Duke).  Also keep an eye on the semifinals when Boston College or Clemson will probably meet North Carolina.  The Tigers and Eagles both played North Carolina incredibly close in Chapel Hill, and both would really benefit from the resume boost.

The most exciting conference tourney prospect is a rubber match between Duke and North Carolina in the tournament finals.  These two teams are far and away the best teams in the conference, and both are in the conversation for a number one seed.  Oh yeah, and who wouldn’t want a third game of one of the best rivalries in sports.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated on Thursday, 5:30 ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Southern Cal, VCU, UAB.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Villanova, Washington, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes on 3/10:

• Colorado moves safely into the field with their third win of the season over Kansas State. The Buffs also have wins over Texas and Missouri. Despite a mediocre RPI and poor non-conference losses, those five wins are unmatched among fellow bubble squads. Alabama is now the first team out leading up to their rematch with Georgia tomorrow.
• Connecticut jumps up another seed line with their win over Pittsburgh. The Huskies are now 12-9 vs. Big East competition and tout an outstanding 14 wins vs. the RPI top-100. Pittsburgh’s entire body of work keeps the Panthers as the third #1 seed, but opens up the possibility of Notre Dame passing them in the coming days, a switch that would send Pitt to the Anaheim region.
• UAB’s quarterfinal loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Tournament drops the Blazers out of the automatic bid. Their only RPI top-50 wins are against Marshall, making it extremely unlikely the Blazers will earn a spot in the field. UTEP is now the projected auto bid from CUSA.
• Avoiding upsets kept Georgia and Boston College in the field, but neither win boosted their position on the S-Curve.
• BYU once again played poorly without Brandon Davies against bottom-feeder TCU. A loss in the MWC Tournament and pushes by either Florida or North Carolina in the days ahead could drop the Cougars to a #3 seed.
• Word from Steve Lavin is that D.J. Kennedy suffered a “serious knee injury.” This may affect St. John’s seed if confirmed.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

Last Four In: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Colorado, USC, VCU, Missouri State.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Connecticut, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Illinois, Gonzaga
• 10 Seeds: Villanova, Washington, Marquette, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama, UAB
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes from 3/8:

• Marquette moved into lock status with their win over Providence on Tuesday night.
• Butler’s defeat of Milwaukee opened up another at-large spot which went to Alabama. They are now the last team in.
• Villanova moved down from a #7 seed to a #10 seed with their fifth straight loss on Tuesday. Their total body of work keeps them safely in the field of 68.

David Ely is an RTC Contributor.

Introduction

Congrats are in order for the following teams that locked up automatic NCAA berths this week: St. Peter’s (MAAC), Old Dominion (CAA), Wofford (SoCon), Gonzaga (WCC), Indiana State (MVC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun) and UNC-Asheville (Big South). It’s always fun watching these teams celebrate their conference championships because the excitement just feels more honest than, say, when an Ohio State or a Pittsburgh wins its conference tournament. Championship Week is great for television purposes because there are so many great games to watch, but there usually is less urgency among the teams from the major conferences. For them, conference tournaments are about posturing for seeds and surviving the weekend injury-free. Roy Williams once called the ACC Tournament a big cocktail party, and it’s not surprising that his two title teams both bowed out in the semifinals.  

What We Learned 

Davies Will Obviously Be Missed, But Charles Abouo's Emergence Has Mitigated the Sting

If you’re a big time recruit and have BYU in your top five, you might want to reconsider your stance on the Cougars. Seriously, why would a player with options want to go to BYU now that its draconian honor code system is in the national spotlight. By now, everyone knows Brandon Davies (BYU’s third leading scorer and leading rebounder) was suspended from the BYU basketball team for allegedly having premarital sex with his girlfriend. Davies’ suspension is a crushing blow for the Cougars, who have gone from a sexy popular national title pick to a team some think won’t make it out of the first weekend.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Old Dominion, Missouri
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Temple, Tennessee
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Utah State, Florida State, Illinois
• 10 Seeds: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, Richmond
• 11 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Milwaukee, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, North Texas, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple
• 9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee
  
• 14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, Middle Tennessee, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Note:

• Connecticut and Xavier switched seeds due to the amount of Big East teams in the field.
• Michigan and Clemson switched seeds to avoid two ACC teams facing each other in the First Four round.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (last updated after Sunday’s games)

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicated automatic bids)

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State

3 Seeds: Florida, Purdue, North Carolina, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia

5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut

6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati

7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion

8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington

10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga

11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan

12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont

13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee

14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island

16 Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman