Past Imperfect is a series focusing on the history of the game. Each week, RTC contributor JL Weill (@AgonicaBoss| Email) highlights some piece of historical arcana that may (or may not) be relevant to today’s college basketball landscape. This week: the lost, great 1998 NCAA tournament.

The 1998 NCAA tournament is the most exciting, bracket busting, nerve-wracking, well-played tournament in the modern era. And yet, no one seems to remember it. It’s sandwiched right there between “Simon says, ‘Championship,’” and Khalid El-Amin atop the scorer’s table. Can you see it? Look closely, it’s there. It’s the one with the two weird teams in the Final Four, the North Carolina squad coached by the old guy (no, not Dean Smith, the other old guy) and the first-year black coach at Kentucky. Oh, I know what will help…it’s the one where the coach’s kid hits that shot. Oh, now you remember.

It’s a shame, too, that no one remembers the 1998 tourney in toto. From beginning to end, the tournament was riveting, nip-and-tuck, gut-twisting basketball. And it didn’t take long at all to shake things up. On the first day, before many people were probably even aware that games were afoot, an out-of-the-way locale provided fans with some of the tournament’s most in-your-face moments, courtesy of a few names fans would become very familiar with over the next decade but who at the time were little known outside of the basketball community. But strange things can happen in Boise.

Ben Howland, then coach of the 15^th-seeded Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, had his team on the cusp of history, all even at 62 apiece with Bob Huggins’ two-seed Cincinnati with just seconds remaining. Northern Arizona was the nation’s best three-point shooting team that year, so it was doubly cruel when Cincinnati’s D’Juan Baker buried an open three to win the game with just 3.6 seconds left to save the Bearcats’ skin. But Cincinnati’s flirtation with late-game disaster would come back to bite them the next round when, this time against West Virginia, Baker again hit a deep three-pointer to give his team the lead and then strutted down the court, only to watch helplessly as Mountaineers guard Jarrod West – yes, Jarrie West — threw up a prayer that was answered with eight tenths of a second left. West’s tipped three-pointer hit the backboard and went through the net, turning Baker’s sideline strut into a slumped-over disbelief. Live by the buzzer beater, die by the buzzer beater.

Meanwhile, in Sacramento, Tennessee fans got their first glimpse of a coach they’d become all too familiar with in a few years, when Kevin Stallings-coached Illinois State ruined the Volunteers’ sunny trip West on a running layup with 1.8 seconds left in overtime. While the Redbirds would get blasted in the second round, that was small consolation for Tennessee fans. Because just a season later, Stallings would take the job at intra-state rival Vanderbilt.

But the action wasn’t all left to the Left Coast. Back in D.C., President Bill Clinton wasn’t the only one issuing denials. Washington denied Xavier a spot in the second round on a Deon Luton game-winner, while three-seed South Carolina saw B.J. McKie’s last-gasp attempt fall short, keeping the Gamecocks on the outside looking in at upset king Richmond moving on. Oh, and for good measure, Indiana needed extra time to top Oklahoma as well. Had enough? Too bad. Because if Thursday seemed like enough excitement for any single round, things were just getting started.

All across the country, the tense moments and close games continued on Friday. In Lexington, a gruff Syracuse senior from Lithuania named Marius Janulis buried not one but two three-pointers to help the Orange squeak by Iona. Then Chicago turned into Boise, with Detroit Mercy upsetting St. John’s by two and Western Michigan sending Clemson packing by three. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, UCLA outlasted Miami (Fl.) on four straight free throws in the final seconds. And then, it happened.

It would be a shot for all time. It would be replayed so often it has become an indelible part of the very tournament itself. Like Christian Laettner’s turnaround jumper, like Jim Valvano running around looking for someone to hug, the miracle shot by Valparaiso guard, and son of his coach, Bryce Drew was the artistic flourish on a first round of gripping drama. Drew’s deep three, coming on a designed play whereby a half-court pass is touch passed to a streaking Drew, was the most memorable moment on a whole tournament’s worth of memorable moments.

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Now that the Play-In First Four games are finished, let’s get back to normalcy with the best weekend of the year beginning this afternoon.  Sixteen games, eight sites, four television channels, and several million brackets busted by roughly 3:30 PM eastern time.

#5 West Virginia vs. #11 Clemson – East Region Second Round (at Tampa, FL) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS

Expect a low-scoring, gritty and physical opener for Thursday’s NCAA Tournament action, and not just because the tip time is barely after noon and Clemson arrived in Tampa just before the sun came up on Wednesday. Both of these teams pride themselves in their toughness defensively and play extremely hard on every possession. Clemson specializes in limiting opposing offenses inside the arc behind senior forward Jerai Grant prowess in the paint, while West Virginia limits their competition to below 30% shooting from the three-point line. While both Brad Brownell and Bob Huggins have a history of trotting out stalwart defenses, the edge offensively has to side with the Mountaineers. Kevin Jones has been playing his best basketball of the season as of late, posting three double-doubles in his last four outings. Casey Mitchell is a 38% gunner from deep that is tremendous off screens in catch and shoot situations where he barely needs any room to fire. Deniz Kilicli and John Flowers have aided what has turned out to be the sixth best offensive rebounding team in the nation, no surprise coming from a Huggins-coached squad. Clemson is merely middle of the pack in Division I in allowing offensive rebounds, so the Mountaineer frontline may be able to churn out extra possessions for their perimeter weapons throughout this game. Limiting Grant is certainly a challenge, but the WV frontline should be up to the task. Combine tired legs with Mitchell feasting on a perimeter defense that just surrendered 12 threes to UAB and the edge in this 5/12 matchup has to side with the Mountaineers.

The RTC Certified Pick: West Virginia.

#8 Butler vs. #9 Old Dominion – Southeast Region Second Round (at Washington, D.C.) – 12:40 pm ET on truTV.

Both teams have won their past nine games en route to conference tournament championships. Defense has been the key for each club during their winning streaks with Butler giving up 58 PPG and ODU at 57.7 PPG against over their last nine games. Old Dominion is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and that is where they have to take advantage of the Bulldogs. This game will be played almost exclusively in the half court with both teams preferring a slower pace. Butler ranks #11 in defensive rebounding percentage but the Monarchs are the best offensive rebounding team in the land. Blaine Taylor’s team must win this battle and protect the basketball in order to advance. They struggle at times with turnovers and lots of giveaways will negate their expected edge on the glass. Look for the Monarchs to work inside utilizing star big man Frank Hassell as well as Keyon Carter and Kent Bazemore. Butler allows 48.7% FG inside the arc and that could hurt them against the frontcourt-oriented Monarchs. Butler shoots almost 21 threes per game behind Shelvin Mack, Zach Hahn and even Matt Howard (44%). Add in the recent play of Shawn Vanzant and you have a team playing as well as they have all year. ODU is very poor against the three, their biggest vulnerability. Bazemore is a terrific defender and needs to come up big on that end against the Bulldog guards. Both teams are experienced and obviously did well in last year’s tournament so they won’t be intimidated by the big stage. While the focus will be on Howard vs. Hassell in the post, this game could be determined by guard play.

The RTC Certified Pick: Butler.

#4 Louisville vs. #13 Morehead State – Southwest Region Second Round (at Denver, CO) – 1:40 pm ET on TBS.

We’re quite sure that Louisville head coach Rick Pitino could only shake his head in disgust when he saw his team’s opening matchup on Thursday.  An in-state mid-major whose greatest strength — a dominant glass-eater by the name of Kenneth Faried — bears stark contrast with his Cards’ greatest weakness, interior play.  Over the years, Pitino has mastered the art of using team defensive principles to stymie players like Faried by throwing two and three bodies at him everywhere on the floor.  The Cards will need to again, because Faried’s nonstop motor and Rodman-esque knack for finding the ball is the best in the nation (he corrals 20% of offensive rebounds and 31% of defensive rebounds while he’s on the floor), something his players know all too well after facing Morehead State (and Faried) in the same round two seasons ago (Faried went for 14/11 in a 20-point loss).  He’s gotten better, and so has his team.  The good news for Pitino is that MSU is often sloppy with the ball, committing nearly fifteen turnovers a game, and the Eagles don’t defend the three very well (36.9%), which will allow ample opportunities for the Louisville shooters to get good looks from deep.  Two seasons ago a stronger Louisville team went into halftime only up two points on a weaker Morehead State team; expect a similar situation this year, as the relative strengths and weaknesses offset each other.  Ultimately, the Cards will find enough points through hustle and desire to fend off the school located two hours east, but we’ll forgive Pitino if he lambastes the committee for giving him this dangerous opponent for the second time in three years.

The RTC Certified Pick: Louisville.

#7 Temple vs. #10 Penn State – West Region Second Round (at Tucson, AZ) – 2:10 pm ET on TNT.

While the Owls are 25-7 and the higher seed here, this is not a team that is at full strength. They have played their last eight games without center Michael Eric, who will not return this year, and the last seven without swingman Scootie Randall, who is holding out hope that he will be able to go Thursday. The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, are at full strength, but their full strength means that their five starters are ready to play a whole lot of minutes, with only sporadic contributions from the bench, which averages less than eight total points per game. And given the pace at which Penn State plays (their games average just 60 possessions, in the bottom two percent of the nation), a pace which Temple will have little objection to, we’ll have a low-scoring, limited possession, defensive battle that will likely come down to seeing which of the two teams makes the most plays in the final few minutes. Because of that, the Lions may have the edge. Not only do they have four seniors amongst their five main players, but Talor Battle is an explosive scorer given the limited number of possessions he works with. And, among their five man rotation, only Andrew Jones is a poor free throw shooter. For Temple to counteract the experience of the Lions, they’ll need to get plenty of inside production from physical freak Lavoy Allen, while perimeter players like Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt and point guard Juan Fernandez will have to take advantage of a PSU defense that likes to pack it in and force their opponents to beat them with their jump shot. Unfortunately for the Owls, even if Randall does make it back for this game, their most efficient offensive player does not figure to have his legs back, and Temple may come up a bit short.

The RTC Certified Pick: Penn State

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RTC will be covering the NCAA Tournament from cover to cover this year, with correspondents at each of the fourteen sites over the next three weeks.  These diaries are intended to give you insights to the games, coaches, players, fans media and everything else that you wouldn’t otherwise have known simply from watching on television.  As always, feel free to offer suggestions for feedback in future versions that we can pass along to our correspondents.  Here’s Tuesday’s Diary from Dayton…

The First Four, Tuesday – by John Stevens

What a privilege to be in attendance for history. Assuming the First Four sticks and they bring it back every year, we can say we were at the first First Four. It took a while for UD Arena to fill, but not only was the 6:30 PM ET start time a tad early for a Tuesday night game, but the interstate highways near the arena are undergoing construction, resulting in several bottlenecks and resultant standstills. If you were hoping to slide in just a few minutes before tipoff of either game, there’s no way you made it. By the late second half of UALR vs UNCA, the place was about 80% full.

Here’s how cruel fate can be: when UAB (and VCU, for that matter) were announced as having made the Tournament, you probably heard what ESPN’s Jay Bilas thought of it. That soundbite, by now, is famous; you know, the one where he slams the committee for letting those two teams in ahead of Colorado and Virginia Tech, even wondering if the committee was aware that basketballs were, in fact, round. On the drive up here today, I was listening to ESPN radio play a clip with the response by UAB’s senior guard Aaron Johnson, the Conference USA Player of the Year. In it, Johnson said, “Nothing stopped me from dancing in my room when they announced us, and even when Jay Bilas was talking down about us and everything, we’re just happy to get to play.” That’s a great response, a kid sticking up for his team and his school. There is no other response. Late in the game against Clemson, the matter all but decided, Johnson hustled back to defend what turned out to be a run-out layup with an and-one opportunity for Clemson. Johnson fell awkwardly, but the play happened right in front of me and it looked like a simple cramp. Wrong. Johnson broke his tibia on the play. The replay showed a left limb that simply should not move the way a foot and leg should. When he was taken off the floor, he tried to restrain his tears. He failed. He and his trainers went right by me en route back to the locker room. The look on Johnson’s eyes was not just one of immense pain. It was one of soul-consuming fear, a look of a kid who wondered if he’d ever walk normally again, let alone ever play basketball for money, as he was poised to do someday. A broken tibia entails an arduous recovery and a long rehab. We hope he makes it all the way back, and fulfills his dreams. The most evil aspect of this was noted in a tweet by Mid-Majority’s Kyle Whelliston — and that’s the fact that if UAB wasn’t selected for the Tournament, Johnson doesn’t play in this game.

What strange statistics at halftime of UAB/Clemson. At the break, UAB was 2-12 from inside the two-point arc, but 7-15 outside of it. Clemson, by contrast, couldn’t hit from three-point range, shooting 1-7. Inside the arc, they fared much better in the first half, hitting a blistering 14 of 20 shots! In the second half, the Tigers fared slightly better from range, hitting 3-6, but a couple of those were late-minute bombs from subs. With just about three minutes remaining, Clemson had shot only two treys, hitting one of them. It’s not something Clemson does well to begin with, and this is the time of year where one of the best things you can do is know yourself. By now, teams should know their strengths and weaknesses, what to avoid, and the best way to play up what they do best. If you don’t have long range shooters, hey, don’t shoot a lot of threes. Not that seven three-point attempts is a lot for a half, but you know this was a point emphasized by Clemson head coach Brad Brownell at halftime. His team followed through, and put the Blazers away easily in the second half on the strength of good shot selection — and, of course, multiple turnovers by UAB.

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Welcome to…history.

RTC is proud to be in Dayton for the debut of the First Four. No mere kickoff event, this, and certainly no play-in set of games, so don’t even call it that. This is the official first round of the NCAA Tournament. Each of the two days will feature a game between two winners of smaller-conference tournaments followed by a game pitting two of the last four at-larges granted admission. On Tuesday, Solomon Bozeman leads his Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans and one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation (their 39.8% from range was 12th in the country) against Big South Tournament champions UNC-Asheville, who will try to keep the pace quick and coax unforced errors out of UALR (UNCA forced 17 turnovers per game against its opponents, 7th nationally). After that one, UAB and their trio of double-figure scorers — namely, Jamarr Sanders (17.7 PPG), Cameron Moore (14.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG) and Aaron Johnson (12.0 PPG, 7.7 APG) — take on Clemson, a team whose defense held opponents to 0.898 points per possession during the season, 10th in the nation. The first game tips off at 6:30 PM ET on TruTV. We hope you’ll have us alongside for both of them, and join in the conversation. Let’s Dance!

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Love it or hate it, it’s here to stay so we may as well get used to it. The road from 68 pretenders to 16 contenders begins on Tuesday night at the First Four in Dayton, and we’ll be breaking down every game for you throughout. Here’s tonight’s two games, and keep in mind that we’ll have a correspondent with RTC Live at every single game in this year’s Big Dance.

#16 UNC-Asheville vs. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock – Southeast Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 6:30 pm ET on truTV.

Primm & UNCA Are Primed for Tonight

The NCAA Tournament tips off with the first round in Dayton tonight. Arkansas-Little Rock is making its third NCAA appearance, its first in 21 years since losing to UNLV in the first round of the 1990 Tournament, while UNC-Asheville is here for the second time in its history. These teams play a vastly different style of basketball and whoever can impose their will on the game will likely win. The Bulldogs of Asheville are much better defensively, ranked #89 in efficiency and first in the Big South Conference. They’ve won six straight games and no opponent has scored more than 63 points against them during this streak. Asheville likes to play at a quick pace and ranks tenth in defensive turnover percentage. They have to speed up this game and create a positive turnover margin in order to take Little Rock out of their comfort zone, a halfcourt setting. Turnovers have been a problem for Asheville (15 per game) with their two best players, guards Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm, accounting for six of those combined. With center D.J. Cunningham injured, Asheville has to depend on its backcourt almost exclusively. The Trojans shoot 39.7% from three (#12 nationally) but this guard-oriented team gets very little production inside. South Florida transfer Solomon Bozeman is by far their best player, averaging 16.5 PPG on 46.4% shooting from distance. If the shots aren’t falling, Little Rock will have a tough time winning this game. Guards control tempo and that will determine the outcome tonight.

The RTC Certified Pick: UNC-Asheville.

#12 Clemson vs. #12 UAB – East Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 9 pm ET on truTV.

Stitt Is Happy to be Dancing Again

The most stunning and controversial inclusion into this year’s field was UAB, whose conference tournament quarterfinal loss to East Carolina was believed to have sealed their NCAA fate. Instead, the Blazers’ stellar RPI boosted their credibility in the eyes of the committee enough to warrant a spot in the newly instituted at-large play-in games in Dayton. They’ll take on Clemson, a team whose late-season wins over Virginia Tech and Boston College aided their cause. The Tigers new head coach, Brad Brownell, always sported formidable defensive units during his time at Wright State; his debut season at Clemson has proved no different as the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Clemson has held opponents to a meager 44% from two-point territory and 32% from three-point range. The Tigers also boast a capable senior inside-outside duo in Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant, the latter ranking near the top of the nation in effective FG%, offensive rebounding and shot blocking. But the real matchup to watch involves Stitt against UAB point guard Aaron Johnson, a true floor general in every sense of the word. Johnson ranks fourth in the country in assist rate and the onus will be on Stitt to make life miserable in the halfcourt for Johnson. Both teams are below average when it comes to offensive efficiency when compared to other NCAA Tournament participants. Which point guard performs better between Stitt and Johnson could very well determine the outcome. We’re more trusting of Clemson’s talented supporting cast – Andre Young, Tanner Smith, Devin Booker and the aforementioned Grant to name a few – to make life easier for their point guard.

The RTC Certified Pick: Clemson.

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East:

• Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim discusses the Orange’s history in the Final Four with columnist Bud Poliquin.
• Indiana State is using creativity as the Sycamores practice for Syracuse on Friday.
• A possible distraction for Georgia: Mark Fox being mentioned as a candidate at NC State.
• Balance and consistency have been keys for Washington this season.
• Wright State head coach Billy Donlon is happy for his former boss, Clemson‘s Brad Brownell.
• Can Kentucky make a run to the Final Four?

 Southeast:

• Ashton Gibbs has been a very strong leader for Pittsburgh.
• St. John’s is using the injured DJ Kennedy as inspiration.
• Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan is a staunch advocate for further tournament expansion.
• Utah State head coach Stew Morrill believes his Aggies squad got another raw deal.
• BYU standout Jimmer Fredette needs some help around him if the Cougars want to advance deeply.

Southwest:

• Illinois guard DJ Richardson crossed paths with several UNLV players when he spent his final high school season at Findlay Prep in Las Vegas.
• Vanderbilt‘s opening round survival against Richmond could hinge on bench production.
• Kenneth Faried‘s tenacious rebounding style draws comparisons to Dennis Rodman, according to first-round opponent Rick Pitino.
• The matchup that almost was – Purdue coach Matt Painter is relieved that the scenario of facing St. John’s wouldn’t come up until the Final Four. Painter played at Purdue for current Scarlet Knight coaches Gene Keady and Steve Lavin.
• 15-seed Akron will hope to contain Notre Dame with some overbearing size down low.
• USC coach Kevin O’Neill learned a valuable lesson after his suspension from a verbal confrontation with an Arizona booster during the Pac-10 Tournament last week.

West:

• An update on college basketball’s most-watched toe indicates there’s a chance that Kyrie Irving will return for Duke at some point in the tournament.
• Hampton has a shot at one-upping its memorable upset of two-seed Iowa State in 2001.
• An emphasis on perimeter defense is the norm this week in Tennessee‘s practices as it preps for Michigan.
• A Q&A with Arizona‘s Derrick Williams discusses a variety of topics, including being recruited by his first-round opponent, Memphis.
• Sticking with the feline motif, Missouri will try to buck a foreboding trend against Cincinnati, as Big East teams have ended the Tigers’ last two seasons.
• Teammates will rally around Temple junior guard Ramone Moore, who has been instrumental in providing a leadership element to the Owls’ season.
• Kawhi Leonard may be an NBA prospect for the Aztecs, but DJ Gay is San Diego State‘s Iron Man, having played at least 39 minutes in his team’s last seven games, without the benefit of a single overtime.

Introduction

March Madness is officially here. Introduction over.

What We Learned

What a Run, Young Man.

Connecticut scoffs in the face of conventional wisdom that says it’s better for a team to be well rested before the NCAA tournament. The Huskies won five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament title last Saturday night. And for my money, Kemba Walker locked up the Naismith Award with his play over those five games. Walker averaged 26 PPG and 38 MPG at Madison Square Garden, carrying a team that finished 9-9 in the Big East to the #3 seed in the West. We are a little concerned that Walker went only 2-16 from three during the tournament, but he countered his poor outside shooting with at least nine attempts from the free throw line each game. For those who think Walker has to be running on fumes right now, remember that he had enough left to break some ankles, rise and knock down a J to beat Pittsburgh despite playing all 40 minutes of that game. Because of their 7:20 PM ET tip on Thursday, the Huskies will have had nearly five days off to ready themselves for the Tournament. That’s plenty of time for Kemba to recharge for another run.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Sunday, 4:10 PM ET.

First 4 Byes: Illinois, Colorado, Penn State, Michigan.

Last Four In: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia.

First Four Out: Saint Mary’s, Southern California, Boston College, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Kansas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, North Carolina, Connecticut
  
• 3 Seeds: Florida, Texas, Louisville, Kentucky
• 4 Seeds: BYU, Purdue, Syracuse, Wisconsin
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Xavier
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Washington
  
• 8 Seeds: Utah State, Temple, George Mason, Tennessee
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, UNLV, Richmond, Gonzaga
  
• 10 Seeds: Florida State, Marquette, Villanova, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Penn State
• 12 Seeds: Memphis, Michigan, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Long Island
  
• 15 Seeds: Akron, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, UNC-Asheville, Hampton, Arkansas Little-Rock, UT-San Antonio, Alabama State

• Despite Duke’s ACC Tournament title, in a head-to-head resume comparison with either Pittsburgh or Notre Dame, the Big East duo prevails. Two of Duke’s wins over NCAA Tournament teams came with Kyrie Irving. Duke has substantially less RPI top-25 and top-50 wins and their best road victory on the season is Maryland. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame finished 1-2 in the best conference in recent memory. I could see Duke get the final #1 just as they did last year over a Big East team (West Virginia), but if they do it’s the second straight year it’s undeserved.
• Kentucky moves up to a #3 seed with their SEC Tournament win. They’re playing at a very high level and the committee will have noticed, thrashing both Alabama and Florida. The Gators remain as a #3 seed with their commendable body of work.
• Richmond moves up to a #9 seed with their Atlantic 10 Tournament win. No bid stealer today. Georgia is my last team in the field.
• I have a hunch that St. Mary’s will sneak in over one of the ACC or SEC teams, but I can’t include them purely based on a feeling. Frankly, there’s no argument for St. Mary’s over Georgia. The only argument to leave Alabama out is their horrid non-conference. St. Mary’s has one win over the RPI top-50 and it came in November. That doesn’t cut it.
• Kansas is my #1 overall seed. It doesn’t really matter. They’ll go to the San Antonio region while Ohio State goes to Newark regardless.

Games #208-209.  It’s ACC Semifinal Saturday, with Duke and Carolina seemingly on a collision course for a third matchup.

1:00 pm.  UNC vs. Clemson.  Third time’s the charm? Clemson has fallen to North Carolina twice already this season, but comes into the semifinals with all the momentum that a dismantling of Boston College can buy. Additionally, Clemson comes in knowing that they have been close in the past. In the last meeting between these teams at Clemson, the Tigers came within two points and four seconds of upsetting the Tar Heels. In North Carolina, Clemson faces a team not so different from itself: both teams are elite defensive teams who sometimes struggle to score against other defensive-minded squads. Yet while North Carolina seeks to run, Clemson plays at a fairly slow pace. Expect Clemson to burn through every second of the shot clock as they try to control the tempo and increase their odds at an upset. Of course, this was the same strategy that Miami used, fairly successfully, until North Carolina’s stunning comeback..

3:15 pm.  Duke vs. Virginia Tech. After Virginia Tech’s surprising comeback against, Florida State, the question that the Hokies have to answer is whether or not they have the legs to take on this Duke team. The shorthanded VT team has leaned on stars Malcolm Delaney and Erick Green to play nearly 40 minutes each of the past two nights. With this Duke game coming less than 15 hours after their late-night victory, it seems likely that the Hokies will be exhausted. That said Malcolm Delaney and his team have played iron man minutes the entire season and showed a steely resolve against the Seminoles. The question for Duke hinges on Nolan Smith’s toe: Will the Player of the Year candidate even suit up? It’s a tough break for the Blue Devils, but Seth Curry showed himself to be a capable point man in the closing minutes against Maryland. Even more intriguing, Kyrie Irving’s tantalizing warm-up before the Maryland game suggested that the sensational freshman isn’t too far off from a return. Does Smith’s injury accelerate the timetable? Virginia Tech only lost to Duke by four points in a win that leaned heavily on Smith’s 18-point performance. Will his absence tilt the scales or will the sheer exhaustion of Seth Greenberg’s team be too much?

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Saturday, 11:19 PM ET.

First 4 Byes: Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Saint Mary’s.

Last Four In: Penn State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Georgia, Boston College, Southern California, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Texas, North Carolina
  
• 3 Seeds: Florida, Connecticut, Louisville, BYU
• 4 Seeds: Purdue, Syracuse, Kentucky, Wisconsin
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Georgetown
• 7 Seeds: Xavier, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, Tennessee, Washington, Utah State
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, UNLV, Gonzaga, Florida State
  
• 10 Seeds: Marquette, Villanova, Richmond, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Penn State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Memphis
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Long Island
  
• 15 Seeds: Akron, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, UNC-Asheville, Hampton, Arkansas Little-Rock, UT-San Antonio, Alabama State

3/12 changes:

• Penn State and Ed DeChellis will go dancing. The Nittany Lions needed to beat both Wisconsin and Purdue/Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament to clinch a bid. They completed both scalps and should go to the tournament in Talor Battle’s senior season.
• Kentucky didn’t help their SEC brethren by thrashing Alabama. If Dayton wins the A-10 Tournament, the Tide are the team to drop out. Richmond also clinched a bid with their semifinal win over Temple, so the conference may end up with four teams in the Dance.
• Washington jumped up two seed lines with their dramatic Pac-10 Tournament victory. The Huskies made up for a lackluster non-conference performance with two wins over both UCLA and Arizona.
• San Diego State flipped with BYU. The Aztecs are now the #6 overall team in the S-Curve while the Cougars will either garner a #3 or #4 seed on Sunday depending on how much the committee downgrades them post-Brandon Davies.
• Florida will earn a #2 seed if they beat Kentucky and win the SEC Tournament tomorrow. Their body of work is tremendous and the Gators will have won both the regular season and tournament titles.
• Connecticut won five games in five days and now will receive a #3 seed at the very minimum. They were a #6 seed heading into the Big East Tournament. Louisville’s defeat of Notre Dame on Friday, close loss to UConn and entire body of work in the historic Big East (7 RPI top-25 wins, five more than Purdue) gives them a slight edge for the final #3 seed.