Andrew Murawa is the Pac-12 and Mountain West correspondent and a regular contributor.

Question: Which Returning Player Will Make the Leap?

Two seasons ago, Derrick Williams was quite a find as a freshman for Arizona. He averaged 15.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and was the Pac-10 Freshman of the Year and a member of various freshman All-American teams. Despite those accomplishments, it was surprising the big leap forward he took last season, when he upped his averages to 19.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game and did so in insanely efficient fashion, posting the second highest offensive efficiency rating  according to Ken Pomeroy (among players using at least 28% of his team’s possessions). After hitting just four three-pointers as a freshman, he hit 42 as a sophomore and did so at an superb 57% clip.  The year Williams was a freshman, Evan Turner was busy turning in a monster season in Columbus, averaging 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game on his way to winning multiple National Player of the Year awards. While Turner wasn’t nearly the surprise bust-out that Williams was (he did, after all, average 17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 4.0 APG the previous season), both players made huge leaps in their final collegiate seasons on their way to earning NPOY consideration.

Evan Turner & Derrick Williams Both Broke Out In Big Ways

This season, it looks like Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger and North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes are the two preseason co-favorites for National Player of the Year honors. But, will we see someone else come up from out of the pack to challenge the frontrunners? For the purposes of answering this question, I’m going to look for a dark horse candidate, and in doing so, eliminate guys like Jordan Taylor and Ashton Gibbs, two veterans who have proven themselves already and who will likely be All-American candidates. Likewise, I’ll eliminate Perry Jones and Terrence Jones from consideration as well — two youngsters who had good if not spectacular freshman seasons but whose amazing athletic ability any old dummy could see.

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Practices are in full effect, we’re halfway through our preseason conference primers, and real game action begins just over 18 days from now.  The so-called experts among us believe that North Carolina, Kentucky and Connecticut comprise the top tier of teams in America; with Syracuse, Ohio State, Duke and Louisville generally considered the next tier of challengers.  But none of us — not Goodman, not Parrish, not Decourcy, not Winn, not Davis, not Katz, not O’Neil, and certainly none of the AP, Coaches’, or RTC pollsters, are in danger of losing our jobs if we’re wrong.  Such do-or-die pressure to be right isn’t a necessary condition of this profession, but that’s definitely not true with Vegas oddsmakers.  For those guys, all it takes is one particularly terrible line and your head could be on the chopping block as a result.  As we’ve said before, sports books typically aren’t in the business of losing money, so even though you should read through these odds with a healthy dose of salt, it’s always interesting to see how they’re thinking.

First the odds (taken from The Greek as of October 19, 2011), then our analysis after the jump:  (ed. note: for those unfamiliar with futures odds, +350 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won.  He would, in other words, win back 3.5 times his original wager.)

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Note: Check out games #68-52 on the list here.

51. February 25: Memphis at Marshall (4:00, FSN)- The most likely candidate to knock off powerhouse Memphis isn’t a usual suspect like UAB, UTEP or Tulsa. Instead, it’s Tom Herrion and Marshall, a team loaded with reigning C-USA freshman of the year DeAndre Kane, point guard standout Damier Pitts and Justin Coleman, a former Louisville commit with huge upside. The problem is that Memphis is overflowing with talent up and down the roster. Will Barton could lead the league in scoring, Adonis Thomas is a superb athlete and Tarik Black is the Tigers most indispensable player. Whether Pitts can fluster Memphis’ young point guard Joe Jackson, who averaged more turnovers than assists as a freshman, is a storyline to watch when these two clash in late February, possibly for a conference crown.

Josh Pastner and Memphis aim to hold off upstart Marshall this season

50.  February 4: Xavier at Memphis (1:00, FSN)- As per usual, Memphis loaded up on their non-conference schedule to make up for a weaker Conference USA slate. The Tigers travel to Louisville, but their toughest home date next season could very well be Xavier, another premiere non-BCS school who’s not afraid to challenge themselves outside of conference play. The Musketeers boast a loaded backcourt spearheaded by Tu Holloway, a legitimate sleeper for the Wooden Award, and he’ll likely be matching buckets with Memphis’ Will Barton. But it’s Antonio Barton, the often overshadowed brother, who made rapid defensive improvements last season and could draw the assignment of containing Holloway.

49. February 1: Connecticut at Georgetown (7:00, ESPN2)- The Hoyas lost their core in Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, but it was a duo that only led the program to a 27-27 record over the last three seasons in Big East play. They’ll need Jason Clark, who had a much quieter junior season than expected, to grab hold of a leadership role and become an all-Big East performer. He’ll need help from his friends Henry Sims and Nate Lubick or Connecticut’s intimidating duo of Alex Oriakhi and Andre Drummond will have their way in the paint.

48. February 7: Purdue at Ohio State (9:00, ESPN)- These two schools have had some memorable meetings recently, from Evan Turner’s coming out party in West Lafayette to E’Twaun Moore’s 38-point effort last season. Any opponent that hopes to knock off the Sullinger-Craft-Buford led Buckeyes in Columbus this season will need to play a near-perfect 40 minutes. A disciplined Purdue team coached by Matt Painter and led by a healthy Robbie Hummel is capable.

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1. Over the next couple of weeks conferences around the country will be having their annual basketball media days, over-hyped events where coaches prattle on in coachspeak, players try not to say anything too controversial, and the assembled media spends most of its time angling for the free doughnuts, coffee and sandwiches.  On the eve of the Big East’s event at Madison Square Garden in NYC, the Syracuse Post-Standard has released its annual survey of 16 writers from each of the conference’s 16 markets, resulting in the closest race for the preseason top spot in the poll’s 20-year history.  Your winner: Syracuse, by a single point.  Even though defending national champion Connecticut received 8 first-place votes (vs. 6 for SU), the Orange showed up on more second and third-place ballots to slightly edge out the Huskies at this point.  The writers picked Pittsburgh guard Ashton Gibbs as its conference POY (7 votes), with UConn’s Jeremy Lamb second (4 votes), and his teammate Andre Drummond (12 votes) the overwhelming choice for conference ROY.
2. While we’re on the subject of Jim Calhoun’s team, freshman forward Michael Bradley — the player who gave up his scholarship so that Drummond could join the team — proved that karma bears no conscience when he received news that his right ankle was broken and will require surgery.  The former foster child who mentioned sacrifice for the team in recent weeks as the reason for choosing to walk on this year is looking at a best case scenario where he can return to the team in December.  Missing the first two months of the season is no way to get his legs and timing back, though — you’d have to figure that it will take him until January or February to completely recover from this unfortunate break.
3. We promise that this M5 isn’t only going to only be about the Big East Conference, but an interesting piece by Gary Parrish on the status of Louisville basketball going into this season brings up several good questions.  Even when Rick Pitino’s Cardinals played team basketball all the way to a surprising third place finish in the conference last season, there was a faint sense among some that Louisville was an overrated team getting it done primarily with smoke and mirrors.  That illusion was shattered in the NCAA Tournament’s Second Round when Morehead State parlayed an injury to Preston Knowles into an upset victory, but few actually had the Cards doing much damage last year despite its #4 seed.  Parrish appears to buy into the concept of a team without stars (he ranks the Cards #8 nationally), but unless Peyton Siva has plans to turn into a 2012 version of Shelvin Mack, we’re going to remain unconvinced about the long-term viability of this squad.
4. California head coach Mike Montgomery will have a minor surgical procedure today that will force him to take a short leave of absence away from his team.  Given that we’re in the first few days of the very first week of practice, it’s safe to presume that this medical problem came on rather quickly for the 64-year old Bears coach.  We trust the Cal athletic department when they inform us that the procedure is minor, but no surgery is completely risk-free, so we’re crossing our fingers for a totally successful intervention for Montgomery today and his subsequent recovery.
5. No matter your political persuasion and accompanying feelings about the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protests going on around the country, one enterprising Kansas fan and his son decided to have some fun with a camera at one of the recent events in Denver, Colorado.  Mr. Greenhaw (the dad), perhaps ironically a banker himself, started ranting and raving about KU basketball to the delight of his son’s camera, even finding the wherewithal to get a shot in at “Missourah” while he was parading around with his KU #1 sign (although don’t get us started on his claim of “5 natl. championships.” Grrrrrrr…) in tow.  Check out the video below, which is rather hilarious:

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

If you missed last week’s article on the ten players you don’t know yet (but soon will), check it out here.

Alabama: Outside of Terrence Jones and Anthony Davis at Kentucky, Alabama has the top frontcourt duo in the SEC with JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell. The dynamic tandem can rebound on both ends, block shots, defend opposing forwards and score efficiently. They’re joined by a budding star at the point in sophomore Trevor Releford, giving Anthony Grant a foundation to build on a NIT runner-up finish and potentially claim the SEC West crown and a Top 25 ranking. One area of concern: three-point shooting, where the Tide sunk just 29.8% of their attempts in 2010-11, 15^th worst in the nation. Grant is hoping that his two outstanding guard prospects – freshmen Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph – can reverse that glaring flaw.

Grant and Green have the Tide on the upswing

Virginia: Tony Bennett’s hire was a coup for a Cavaliers program coming off a 10-win season under former coach Dave Leitao. Most expected a three- or four-year rebuilding process before Virginia was back contending in the upper portion of the ACC. True to prediction, Bennett has a unit in year three that could sneak up in the conference and possibly give favorites North Carolina, Duke and Florida State trouble. The big key for Virginia will be staying healthy. Key cogs Mike Scott and Sammy Zeglinski both suffered through injury plagued campaigns in 2010-11, forcing a medical redshirt for Scott and a return for a fifth season. With the exception of Mustapha Farrakhan, Scott is joined by last year’s core and three promising freshmen.  Bennett’s teams finished in the top 20 in defensive efficiency all three seasons he coached at Washington State, so it’s only a matter of time until that type of effort translates to Charlottesville.

California: Arizona returns a handful of contributors from their Elite Eight squad, UCLA boasts a loaded frontcourt and Washington brings in a stud point guard, but California is my pick to win the Pac-12. The major reasons: Allen Crabbe, who scored 17+ in ten of Cal’s 18 conference games as a freshman, and Jorge Gutierrez, a rugged leader and defender who’s improved his offensive game dramatically. Harper Kamp is an under-appreciated and efficient fifth year senior in the post, while Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs could be an improvement at point guard. If Cal improves their defense, they’ll steal a wide open Pac-12.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

26 days. That’s all that separates us and live, meaningful, regular season college basketball.

Every week from now until opening night, I’m here to be your tour guide for the 68 must-watch games of the upcoming season. The list includes 15 conferences from the Pac-12 to the CAA and covers everything from rivalry games dating back a half century, non-conference RPI-boosting tilts and intense battles for state supremacy. Games in February and March, when the margin for error is slim to none, are valued more than contests in November and December. The large majority of these games will have a lasting effect when the bracket is unveiled on that early spring late afternoon in March.

Get your pens and calendars out, folks. These are 68 games that college hoops fans can’t afford to miss (all rankings derived from RTC’s post-draft deadline top 25 and all times EST).

68. January 19: #1 North Carolina at  Virginia Tech (9 PM, ESPN)- The Tar Heels have some challenging tests on their schedule prior to this trip to Virginia Tech, including home/neutral dates with Michigan State, Wisconsin and Texas and road swings to Kentucky and Florida State. If the ultra-talented Heels can navigate those treacherous waters, their #1 ranking will be put to the test in Blacksburg. Tech returns a handful of intriguing players primed to make a leap forward, including double-digit scorer Dorenzo Hudson and breakout candidate Erick Green. Freshman Dorian Finney-Smith is a smooth and skilled freshman forward that could make an immediate impact for the Hokies.

Seth Greenberg won't be so relaxed when UNC comes to town

67.  February 4: Detroit at Butler (12:00, ESPN2)- If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. Detroit aims to claim their first Horizon League title since 1999 behind the guard play of Wooden Award watch list honoree Ray McCallum and all-conference second teamer Chase Simon. The Titans hope forward Eli Holman, a double-double threat who is currently on a leave of absence from the team to address personal matters, returns in time to bang bodies with a strong Butler frontcourt bolstered by the skilled Andrew Smith and athletic Khyle Marshall.

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Another preseason preview gives us reason to roll out the 2011-12 edition of Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball, our annual compendium of YouTube clips from the previous season 100% guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight. We’ve captured the most compelling moments from the 2010-11 season, many of which will bring back the goosebumps and some of which will leave you shaking your head in frustration. For the complete list of this year’s reasons, click here. Enjoy!

#28 – Where Triple Overtime Happens

We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11 seasons.

1. We’ve been on record for a while with our belief that the summer trips abroad that teams take to play exhibitions against foreign squads pay off in currencies that have little to do with the on-court aspects of basketball and more to do with overall esprit-de-corps and the broadening of minds of 18-22 year-olds. We like that Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson seems to agree. The Des Moines Register‘s Mark Emmert (not that one, we assume) noted that a few schools in the state of Iowa got to go to some pretty amazing places this summer — Australia, Italy, and Brazil, anyone? — with Jacobson quoted as saying, “The time away from (strictly basketball activities) becomes beneficial, just building that team chemistry and the trust and the things that have to be there if you’re going to put together a good season.”
2. Mark Turgeon has Gary Williams to thank for the recent inking of 7’1”, 225-pound Ukranian Olexiy Len to the Terps’ roster for the upcoming season — the program had been recruiting Len before Turgeon arrived and finalized the deal — and already Len has vaulted himself into the upper reaches of our favorite players for 2011-12. He said that the first time he ever saw Maryland play was against Duke at Comcast in 2010, a game that ended in a big ol’ RTC. Len’s impression: “I could not believe the atmosphere…it was unbelievable.” Around here, we don’t necessarily advocate every RTC, but when used properly…well, don’t tell us it doesn’t mean anything. It certainly did last year to a kid in the Ukraine who now finds himself en route to the College Park Campus.
3. After seven years of the previous version, there is a new floor at Kansas State’s Bramlage Coliseum. We like the balance struck, here. There are some progressive tones but still a traditional feel. Put better, they didn’t go overboard but still made it cool. The purple octagon outline? Nice. The darker “intra-arc” wood? We’re on board. The PowerCat in the center? Perfect size. Well done all around. We imagine it will bring a smile even to Frank Martin’s face (we kid, we kid). Take note, Northwestern.
4. Speaking of K-State, are they really, as the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger puts it, “one step above hosed” when it comes to likely shake-outs of the next phase of conference realignment? Some experts believe that Kansas would do better to disregard pressure from in-state influences and do whatever Missouri does. A KU-Mizzou bond pretty much cements a solid rivalry around Kansas City, one of the country’s most college-sports-crazy markets. Kansas State, says Mr. Mellinger’s expert, has the most to lose in the end, and in this swirling magma that represents the early evolution of eventual superconferences, has a profile that doesn’t fit the SEC as much as it does the MAC. My, the deals, alliances and secret handshakes that must quietly be happening in that proverbial Big 12 backroom. By the way, has anyone seen Texas A&M?
5. Morgan State’s Todd Bozeman knows all about that big ice cube on which Bruce Pearl is about to sit. Bozeman was a 32 year-old hot shot at California when he got slapped with a show-cause from the NCAA for paying Jelani Gardner’s parents $30,000 and then lying about it. His show-cause penalty was for eight years, though, which ended up keeping him out of coaching for ten. Pearl will be 55 years old when his three-year show-cause ends in 2014. Could any coach hit with such a penalty ever come back to a level anywhere near that which they once achieved? It seems darn near impossible once you’ve been stigmatized with the show-cause, and that’s obviously the point. Nooga.com’s Brendan Quinn recounts the story of Bozeman and ponders the fate of Pearl in an interesting piece.

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

General News

• Jeff Hathaway is out at UConn: After a long power battle Hathaway is out and Paul Pendergast is replacing him as the interim athletic director. (The UConn Blog: Part 1 and Part 2)
  
• Lithuania 76, USA 74: “For the second time in less than two months a Lithuanian team eliminated an American team from medal consideration in an international tournament, as the Americans dropped a two point decision, 74-76, to that Baltic Republic in the World University Games held at Shenzhen University.” (Villanova by the Numbers and Kentucky Sports Radio)
• USA 94, Romania 73: “A change in the starting five brought a change of fortunes at Shenzhen University Sunday as Team USA posted a 21 point win over fellow quarter final loser Team Romania, and advanced to a showdown with Team Germany for fifth place at the World University Games.” (Villanova by the Numbers)
• Georgetown Hoyas Defeat Liaoning Dinosaurs 91-69 in Shanghai: “In their first game since the infamous game ending brawl with the Bayi Rockets, the Georgetown Hoyas got another win against a professional Chinese team, defeating the Dinosaurs of Liaoning by a score of 91-69.” (Casual Hoya)
• Cal Men’s Basketball Beats Danes, 81-73: The Bears defeated the Danish National Team behind 21 points from Robert Thurman. (California Golden Blogs)
• Cal Men’s Basketball Has Room for Seconds, Polishes off Danish 95-78: “For the weekend re-match against the Danish national team, the Golden Bears would have to get it done without starting big men Harper Kamp (knee) and Richard Solomon (eye). Although both players could probably have made a go of it for a regular season game, it was a great experience for the youngsters to step up.” (California Golden Blogs)
• Gonzaga Conference Schedule: A look at the current schedule with times and TV appearances. (The Slipper Still Fits)
• Blackshear and Ware good to go, Swop nearing 100%: Rick Pitino offers some updates on the eligibility of several players. (Card Chronicle)
• Pac-12 Basketball Tournament May Be Moving: “Larry Scott talked to ESPN.com earlier this week about some of the changes that have come to the conference since he bacame commissioner two years ago. While the conference’s expansion and the two massive media deals were the lead topics of the discussion, Scott teased that he is rethinking how the Pac-12 basketball tournament is organized, including its current home in LA.” (Bruins Nation)

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them. We are a little lighter today due to the majority of the blog posts being about the Miami story/scandal.

General News

• USA 124, Finland 64:  “Team USA secured the #1 seed coming out of Group D play as part of their continued domination of play in their pool. In the Shenzhen University Gym today they came within four points of doubling up Team Finland, 124-64.” (Villanova by the Numbers)
• Siva, Kuric and Smith named tri-captains: Rick Pitino has elected to have three captains this season. (Card Chronicle)
• Cal Men’s Basketball Edged By Norway, 69-64: “The silver lining from this game is that Harper Kamp was no longer bothered by his achy knee and was able to play significant minutes. Jorge Gutierrez was still out with his sprained ankle. It had to have been a good learning experience for the young Cal team with regards to ball movement and poise against a tough zone.” (California Golden Blogs)
• Cougars Open 2011-2012 Season At Gonzaga: “WSU announced its 2011-2012 basketball schedule today, and the Cougars will open up the season in a fashion in which they are unaccustomed: On the road, at one of the most hostile places they’ll play all season — against Gonzaga at The Kennel on Nov. 14.” (CougCenter)