Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
So much has changed since the beginning of November around college basketball. Our expectations for Georgetown, Indiana and Missouri have skyrocketed while our perceptions of Pittsburgh, Memphis and the entire Pac-12 have dipped considerably. Doug McDermott has emerged as a player of the year candidate while Tu Holloway slipped from preseason All-American to a “gangsta” at the forefront of a Xavier collapse. Ben Howland’s seat is rising in temperature while any notions of Brad Stevens moving in-state to Bloomington have been extinguished.
As conference schedules get underway and teams become more and more exposed, expect to learn even more over the next two-plus months. Here are ten predictions that I believe will come to fruition by the time the nets are cut down in April:
![icon_18625853[1]](http://rushthecourt.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/icon_186258531-600x399.jpg)
Thomas Robinson will win national player of the year- Preseason favorite Jared Sullinger could win it, but I can’t pinpoint one area where Sullinger is superior to Robinson. The Kansas big man can face up and hit from mid-range, has an unquenchable motor, dominates down low, snatches every rebound in his vicinity, blocks shots, has an NBA-ready body and is light years ahead of Sullinger defensively. I’d draft Robinson first overall in next year’s draft and not think twice about it. Given Kansas’ erratic guard play and total lack of depth, he’s been incredibly valuable to the Jayhawks push for an eighth straight Big 12 regular season title. As long as he stays near his 18/12 averages and top-20 offensive rating, expect Robinson to edge Sullinger, Barnes, McDermott, Lamb, Denmon, Pope or any of the other candidates for the esteemed honor.
Three Pac-12 teams will dance: Cal, Arizona and Washington, none higher than a #9 seed- Cal is the most steady team in the league, can really shoot it from outside and boast a legitimate leader in Jorge Gutierrez to keep the Bears on track. Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs (29.3 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 17-25 from three) has provided a welcomed scoring punch at the combo guard alongside Allen Crabbe. If Harper Kamp can stay on the floor to solidify a thin frontcourt, Cal should win this downtrodden league. Despite accomplishing nothing of note during non-conference play, expect Arizona to string together enough wins to finish second behind a balanced scoring attack. Sean Miller’s teams usually peak when the chips are down in February and March. We’ve seen Washington excel on neutral floors in years past. Look for the Huskies to finally put their superior talent to good use, claim the Pac-12 tournament crown and make another March push.
Murray State will receive no higher than a #5 seed regardless of record- I’d never bet on any college basketball team finishing the campaign unblemished, but Murray State has as good of a chance as any recent candidate. Not only do they play in the low-major Ohio Valley, but the league as a whole is much less competitive than in recent seasons; for example, preseason favorite Austin Peay is 3-12 and has already lost twice in conference play. Because of their lackluster strength of schedule, this is a much different situation than when Drake went deep into February with one loss in 2008 or even St. Joe’s undefeated run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament in 2004. The Racers only non-conference wins of note are Memphis, Dayton and Southern Mississippi. I expect them to lose once their 45% team three-point percentage dips down to earth, but even at 30-0 after the OVC Tournament, Murray State doesn’t deserve a seed any better than a #5 seed.
Saint Louis, not Temple or Xavier, will win the Atlantic 10- This prediction made much more sense before Wednesday when Temple played their best 40 minutes of the season in an upset win over Duke and St. Louis slipped in their A-10 opener at Dayton. Xavier may be the most talented team in the league and they still have two months to straighten their ship, but I trust Rick Majerus’ Billikens more than any other unit. St. Louis ranks 14th in defensive efficiency, shoots it well from both inside and beyond the arc and boasts a steady, playmaking point guard in Kwamain Mitchell to team with Brian Conklin and Cody Ellis. With St. Joe’s and Dayton overachieving, the A-10 (and both the MVC and WCC) could still some bids from the lackluster soft middle of major conferences.
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