Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated on Thursday, 5:30 ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Southern Cal, VCU, UAB.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Villanova, Washington, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes on 3/10:

• Colorado moves safely into the field with their third win of the season over Kansas State. The Buffs also have wins over Texas and Missouri. Despite a mediocre RPI and poor non-conference losses, those five wins are unmatched among fellow bubble squads. Alabama is now the first team out leading up to their rematch with Georgia tomorrow.
• Connecticut jumps up another seed line with their win over Pittsburgh. The Huskies are now 12-9 vs. Big East competition and tout an outstanding 14 wins vs. the RPI top-100. Pittsburgh’s entire body of work keeps the Panthers as the third #1 seed, but opens up the possibility of Notre Dame passing them in the coming days, a switch that would send Pitt to the Anaheim region.
• UAB’s quarterfinal loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Tournament drops the Blazers out of the automatic bid. Their only RPI top-50 wins are against Marshall, making it extremely unlikely the Blazers will earn a spot in the field. UTEP is now the projected auto bid from CUSA.
• Avoiding upsets kept Georgia and Boston College in the field, but neither win boosted their position on the S-Curve.
• BYU once again played poorly without Brandon Davies against bottom-feeder TCU. A loss in the MWC Tournament and pushes by either Florida or North Carolina in the days ahead could drop the Cougars to a #3 seed.
• Word from Steve Lavin is that D.J. Kennedy suffered a “serious knee injury.” This may affect St. John’s seed if confirmed.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

Last Four In: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Colorado, USC, VCU, Missouri State.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Connecticut, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Illinois, Gonzaga
• 10 Seeds: Villanova, Washington, Marquette, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama, UAB
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes from 3/8:

• Marquette moved into lock status with their win over Providence on Tuesday night.
• Butler’s defeat of Milwaukee opened up another at-large spot which went to Alabama. They are now the last team in.
• Villanova moved down from a #7 seed to a #10 seed with their fifth straight loss on Tuesday. Their total body of work keeps them safely in the field of 68.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Old Dominion, Missouri
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Temple, Tennessee
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Utah State, Florida State, Illinois
• 10 Seeds: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, Richmond
• 11 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Milwaukee, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, North Texas, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple
• 9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee
  
• 14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, Middle Tennessee, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Note:

• Connecticut and Xavier switched seeds due to the amount of Big East teams in the field.
• Michigan and Clemson switched seeds to avoid two ACC teams facing each other in the First Four round.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (last updated after Sunday’s games)

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicated automatic bids)

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State

3 Seeds: Florida, Purdue, North Carolina, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia

5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut

6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati

7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion

8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington

10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga

11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan

12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont

13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee

14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island

16 Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bracket Math (italics indicates automatic bid)

Locks: 34

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 12

Currently In The Field: Florida State, Marquette, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson

Last Four In: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, Baylor, Colorado State

Next Four Out: Nebraska, Washington State, Oklahoma State, Memphis

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke

2 Seeds: BYU, Notre Dame, Texas, Purdue

3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgetown, St. John’s

5 Seeds: Connecticut, Kentucky, West Virginia, Vanderbilt

6 Seeds: Arizona, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State

7 Seeds: Cincinnati, George Mason, Texas A&M, Missouri

8 Seeds: Old Dominion, Tennessee, Temple, Washington

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, UCLA, Florida State

10 Seeds: Marquette, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Georgia

11 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College

12 Seeds: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson, UAB, Missouri State

13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston

14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Bucknell, Coastal Carolina, Vermont

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Fairfield, Kent State, Murray State

16 Seeds: Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama.
• First Four Out: Richmond, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado State.
• Next Four Out: Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas.
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, Notre Dame, Purdue.
• 3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse.
• 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, St. John’s, North Carolina, Connecticut.
• 5 Seeds: Georgetown, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.
• 6 Seeds: Arizona, West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M.
• 7 Seeds: Kansas State, Missouri, UCLA, George Mason.
• 8 Seeds: UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Temple.
• 9 Seeds: Illinois, Old Dominion, Tennessee, Washington.
• 10 Seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia.
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Boston College.
• 12 Seeds: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama, UAB, Missouri State.
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston.
  
• 14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, Kent State, Fairfield.
  
• 15 Seeds: Vermont, Bucknell, Long Island, Murray State.
  
• 16 Seeds: Long Beach State, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman.
  

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Memphis, VCU.
  
• Last Four Out: Butler, Colorado State, Richmond, Michigan.
• Next Four Out: Penn State, UAB, Nebraska, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas.
• 2 Seeds: BYU, Duke, San Diego State, Notre Dame.
• 3 Seeds: Georgetown, Purdue, Florida, Connecticut.
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Villanova.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Memphis, Richmond, Michigan State, Oklahoma State.
• Last Four Out: VCU, Kansas State, UAB, Wichita State.

Analysis:

• For the first time since Bracketology debuted three weeks ago, Ohio State is not a clear cut overall #1 seed. Instead, they drop a hair behind Pittsburgh in my S-Curve for that top spot. Sure, the Buckeyes have one less loss and a slightly higher RPI, but Pitt’s overall profile is a bit more impressive. The Panthers have six wins vs. the RPI top-25 compared to OSU’s two. These wins include Texas (#1 seed), at Georgetown (#3), Connecticut (#4), at Villanova  (#4, without Ashton Gibbs), at West Virginia (#6, without Gibbs) and Syracuse (#5). The Buckeyes have quality wins, notably a victory from November at Florida that is looking more and more impressive, but not one at the level of Pitt. One of the many benefits of playing in the Big East. Pitt and Ohio State are joined by Texas and Kansas on the top line.
• The benefits of building a resume through the Big East are also glaringly evident in the case of Notre Dame and Georgetown. The Irish have climbed into comfortable #2 seed territory with their bulk of quality wins — including a neutral court victory over Wisconsin from November and, of course, downing Pitt at Pitt — while scalding hot Georgetown has assembled a top-notch profile to go along with one of the best non-conference SOS in the country. Their win over Utah State continues to climb in value and Memphis sneaking into the field helps.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Colorado State, Washington State, Oklahoma State, Richmond.
  
• Last Four Out: VCU, Missouri State, Kansas State, UAB.

Analysis:

• Monday night’s action only strengthened the case of Pittsburgh and Kansas to remain on the top seed line. Pittsburgh defeated arch rival West Virginia on the road without their best player and Kansas posted triple digits on hated Missouri in Allen Fieldhouse. Although BYU has the #1 RPI in the nation, you’re starting to see some separation with the four #1 seeds- Ohio State, Texas, Pittsburgh and Kansas- and the rest of the pack. The most vulnerable may be Pittsburgh given the unpredictability and depth of the Big East, but the Panthers boast a two-game lead in the loss column and one has to think the champion of the best conference in America has earned a #1 seed.
• Notre Dame has marched to their highest seeding of any bracket as the third #2 seed ahead of both Duke and Connecticut in the overall rankings. The Irish have wins over Georgia, Wisconsin, Georgetown, St. john’s, Marquette, Pittsburgh and the aforementioned Huskies in their overall profile. Worth noting, too, that Kentucky’s win over the Irish in Louisville is all of a sudden looming large for the Wildcats, especially if they keep falling on the road in SEC competition.
• The Big East continues to impress as their conference representatives simply have superior overall profiles than their competition. This is mostly due to an abundance of quality win opportunities and the RPI/SOS boost that playing in the Big East provides. Once again, the conference has 11 teams in the field and the closest to dropping out is Cincinnati at a #10 seed. The non-conference SOS is frightening and Yancy Gates is currently in the doghouse, so I’d say the Bearcats appear the most vulnerable to fall into NIT territory.
• Climbers include Florida, Georgetown, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona, while it appears Texas A&M, Washington, Kentucky and Illinois are trending the other direction, but there’s still a month to turn the ship around.
• The bubble is still pretty gruesome. Case in point is Michigan State, even factoring in their current free-fall, remaining in the field as a #11 seed. Those wins against Wisconsin, Minnesota and Washington give them an edge over most teams on the bubble. Conversely, a lack of a signature win really hurt both VCU (UCLA on neutral and at Old Dominion highlighting their resume) and UAB in their quest for a spot. Colorado State’s win at UNLV was important, as were Oklahoma State’s victories over Missouri and fellow bubble team Kansas State. Same goes for Richmond downing Purdue back in December.
• Cleveland State lost a spot in the bracket with Monday night’s loss to Detroit that pushed the Vikings just behind Valparaiso in a tight Horizon race. The Crusaders earned a #13 seed at the conference’s automatic qualifier and CSU could not garner an at-large berth.

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