Weekly Bracketology: 02.28.11Posted by zhayes9 on February 28th, 2011
Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.
- Last Four In: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama.
- First Four Out: Richmond, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado State.
- Next Four Out: Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, VCU.
S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):
- 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas.
- 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, Notre Dame, Purdue.
- 3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse.
- 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, St. John’s, North Carolina, Connecticut.
- 5 Seeds: Georgetown, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.
- 6 Seeds: Arizona, West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M.
- 7 Seeds: Kansas State, Missouri, UCLA, George Mason.
- 8 Seeds: UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Temple.
- 9 Seeds: Illinois, Old Dominion, Tennessee, Washington.
- 10 Seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia.
- 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Boston College.
- 12 Seeds: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama, UAB, Missouri State.
- 13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston.
- 14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, Kent State, Fairfield.
- 15 Seeds: Vermont, Bucknell, Long Island, Murray State.
- 16 Seeds: Long Beach State, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman.
Note: Both Georgetown (Chris Wright) and Florida State (Chris Singleton) receives slight S-Curve downgrades due to injuries creating uncertainty about those players’ availability for the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota’s performance without Al Nolen also falls under this category.
Note: Louisville and Wisconsin pods had to switch locations to accommodate one First Four at-large game on Tuesday and one on Wednesday.
- America East (1)- Vermont
- Atlantic 10 (2)- Xavier, Temple
- ACC (6)- Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Boston College, Clemson
- Atlantic Sun (1)- Belmont
- Big 12 (5)- Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri
- Big East (11)- Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John’s, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
- Big Sky (1)- Northern Colorado
- Big South (1)- Coastal Carolina
- Big Ten (6)- Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
- Big West (1)- Long Beach State
- CAA (2)- George Mason, Old Dominion
- Conference USA (1)- UAB
- Horizon (2)- Milwaukee, Butler
- Ivy (1)- Princeton
- MAAC (1)- Fairfield
- MAC (1)- Kent State
- MEAC (1)- Bethune-Cookman
- Missouri Valley (1)- Missouri State
- Mountain West (3)- BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
- Northeast (1)- Long Island
- Ohio Valley (1)- Murray State
- Pac-10 (3)- Arizona, UCLA, Washington
- Patriot (1)- Bucknell
- SEC (6)- Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
- Southern (1)- Charleston
- Southland (1)- McNeese State
- Summit (1)- Oakland
- Sun Belt (1)- Florida Atlantic
- SWAC (1)- Texas Southern
- WCC (2)- Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
- WAC (1)- Utah State
Key Bubble Games This Week (2/28-3/3):
- Tuesday: Baylor at Oklahoma State- The Bears completed the season sweep of Texas A&M that constitutes the bulk of their resume to this point. This trip to Stillwater can hurt Baylor a lot more than it can help them.
- Tuesday: Alabama at Florida- The Crimson Tide slipped Saturday at Ole Miss at a time when they can’t afford SEC losses. Their conference mark is the only factor keeping them in the field in the face of horrid computer numbers and bad out-of-conference defeats.
- Tuesday: Boston College at Virginia Tech- Letdown game for the Hokies? Tech’s emotional upset of Duke inched them closer to climbing off the bubble, but they aren’t safe quite yet. A road win for the Eagles would set them up nicely to make the field of 68 with Wake Forest as their season finale.
- Tuesday: Ohio State at Penn State- The Nittany Lions actually have a slightly better overall resume than Michigan, but the Wolverines inched past Penn State due to their season sweep. Once considered dead, if Penn State can shock the likely #1 team in the nation on Tuesday, they’ll be right in the thick of the conversation for a bid.
- Wednesday: Colorado at Iowa State- First it was Nebraska upsetting Texas on their home floor to move towards the bubble before blowing their momentum with a loss in Ames. Colorado downed the Longhorns on Saturday. Will they meet the same fate?
- Wednesday: Clemson at Duke- This is an extreme long shot, but if the Tigers can somehow pull off the upset at Cameron, they’d be an 11 seed with Virginia Tech upcoming and a chance to clinch a spot in the field.
- Wednesday: Minnesota at Northwestern- This is essentially Minnesota’s at-large season. There’s no way the committee takes a team that’s 7-11 in the Big Ten the way the Gophers have been trending. Lose in Evanston and they’ll need to win the conference tournament.
Next bubble watch: Thursday, March 3.
Next bracket: Friday, March 4.