Weekly Bracketology: 02.28.11

Posted by zhayes9 on February 28th, 2011

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

  • Last Four In: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama.
  • First Four Out: Richmond, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado State.
  • Next Four Out: Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):

  • 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas.
  • 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, Notre Dame, Purdue.
  • 3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse.
  • 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, St. John’s, North Carolina, Connecticut.
  • 5 Seeds: Georgetown, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.
  • 6 Seeds: Arizona, West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M.
  • 7 Seeds: Kansas State, Missouri, UCLA, George Mason.
  • 8 Seeds: UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Temple.
  • 9 Seeds: Illinois, Old Dominion, Tennessee, Washington.
  • 10 Seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia.
  • 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Boston College.
  • 12 Seeds: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama, UAB, Missouri State.
  • 13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston.
  • 14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, Kent State, Fairfield.
  • 15 Seeds: Vermont, Bucknell, Long Island, Murray State.
  • 16 Seeds: Long Beach State, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman.

Note: Both Georgetown (Chris Wright) and Florida State (Chris Singleton) receives slight S-Curve downgrades due to injuries creating uncertainty about those players’ availability for the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota’s performance without Al Nolen also falls under this category.

Note: Louisville and Wisconsin pods had to switch locations to accommodate one First Four at-large game on Tuesday and one on Wednesday.

Conference Call

  • America East (1)– Vermont
  • Atlantic 10 (2)– Xavier, Temple
  • ACC (6)- Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Boston College, Clemson
  • Atlantic Sun (1)– Belmont
  • Big 12 (5)- Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri
  • Big East (11)- Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John’s, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Sky (1)– Northern Colorado
  • Big South (1)– Coastal Carolina
  • Big Ten (6)– Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
  • Big West (1)– Long Beach State
  • CAA (2)– George Mason, Old Dominion
  • Conference USA (1)– UAB
  • Horizon (2)– Milwaukee, Butler
  • Ivy (1)– Princeton
  • MAAC (1)– Fairfield
  • MAC (1)– Kent State
  • MEAC (1)– Bethune-Cookman
  • Missouri Valley (1)– Missouri State
  • Mountain West (3)– BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Northeast (1)– Long Island
  • Ohio Valley (1)– Murray State
  • Pac-10 (3)– Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • Patriot (1)– Bucknell
  • SEC (6)– Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
  • Southern (1)– Charleston
  • Southland (1)–  McNeese State
  • Summit (1)– Oakland
  • Sun Belt (1)– Florida Atlantic
  • SWAC (1)– Texas Southern
  • WCC (2)– Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
  • WAC (1)– Utah State

Key Bubble Games This Week (2/28-3/3):

  • Tuesday: Baylor at Oklahoma State- The Bears completed the season sweep of Texas A&M that constitutes the bulk of their resume to this point. This trip to Stillwater can hurt Baylor a lot more than it can help them.
  • Tuesday: Alabama at Florida– The Crimson Tide slipped Saturday at Ole Miss at a time when they can’t afford SEC losses. Their conference mark is the only factor keeping them in the field in the face of horrid computer numbers and bad out-of-conference defeats.
  • Tuesday: Boston College at Virginia Tech– Letdown game for the Hokies? Tech’s emotional upset of Duke inched them closer to climbing off the bubble, but they aren’t safe quite yet. A road win for the Eagles would set them up nicely to make the field of 68 with Wake Forest as their season finale.
  • Tuesday: Ohio State at Penn State– The Nittany Lions actually have a slightly better overall resume than Michigan, but the Wolverines inched past Penn State due to their season sweep. Once considered dead, if Penn State can shock the likely #1 team in the nation on Tuesday, they’ll be right in the thick of the conversation for a bid.
  • Wednesday: Colorado at Iowa State– First it was Nebraska upsetting Texas on their home floor to move towards the bubble before blowing their momentum with a loss in Ames. Colorado downed the Longhorns on Saturday. Will they meet the same fate?
  • Wednesday: Clemson at Duke– This is an extreme long shot, but if the Tigers can somehow pull off the upset at Cameron, they’d be an 11 seed with Virginia Tech upcoming and a chance to clinch a spot in the field.
  • Wednesday: Minnesota at Northwestern– This is essentially Minnesota’s at-large season. There’s no way the committee takes a team that’s 7-11 in the Big Ten the way the Gophers have been trending. Lose in Evanston and they’ll need to win the conference tournament.

Next bubble watch: Thursday, March 3.

Next bracket: Friday, March 4.

zhayes9 (301 Posts)

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