Weekly Bracketology: 02.28.11

Posted by zhayes9 on February 28th, 2011

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

  • Last Four In: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama.
  • First Four Out: Richmond, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado State.
  • Next Four Out: Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):

  • 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas.
  • 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, Notre Dame, Purdue.
  • 3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse.
  • 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, St. John’s, North Carolina, Connecticut.
  • 5 Seeds: Georgetown, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.
  • 6 Seeds: Arizona, West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M.
  • 7 Seeds: Kansas State, Missouri, UCLA, George Mason.
  • 8 Seeds: UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Temple.
  • 9 Seeds: Illinois, Old Dominion, Tennessee, Washington.
  • 10 Seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia.
  • 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Boston College.
  • 12 Seeds: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama, UAB, Missouri State.
  • 13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston.
  • 14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, Kent State, Fairfield.
  • 15 Seeds: Vermont, Bucknell, Long Island, Murray State.
  • 16 Seeds: Long Beach State, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman.

Note: Both Georgetown (Chris Wright) and Florida State (Chris Singleton) receives slight S-Curve downgrades due to injuries creating uncertainty about those players’ availability for the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota’s performance without Al Nolen also falls under this category.

Note: Louisville and Wisconsin pods had to switch locations to accommodate one First Four at-large game on Tuesday and one on Wednesday.

Conference Call

  • America East (1)- Vermont
  • Atlantic 10 (2)- Xavier, Temple
  • ACC (6)- Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Boston College, Clemson
  • Atlantic Sun (1)- Belmont
  • Big 12 (5)- Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri
  • Big East (11)- Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John’s, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
  • Big Sky (1)- Northern Colorado
  • Big South (1)- Coastal Carolina
  • Big Ten (6)- Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
  • Big West (1)- Long Beach State
  • CAA (2)- George Mason, Old Dominion
  • Conference USA (1)- UAB
  • Horizon (2)- Milwaukee, Butler
  • Ivy (1)- Princeton
  • MAAC (1)- Fairfield
  • MAC (1)- Kent State
  • MEAC (1)- Bethune-Cookman
  • Missouri Valley (1)- Missouri State
  • Mountain West (3)- BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
  • Northeast (1)- Long Island
  • Ohio Valley (1)- Murray State
  • Pac-10 (3)- Arizona, UCLA, Washington
  • Patriot (1)- Bucknell
  • SEC (6)- Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
  • Southern (1)- Charleston
  • Southland (1)-  McNeese State
  • Summit (1)- Oakland
  • Sun Belt (1)- Florida Atlantic
  • SWAC (1)- Texas Southern
  • WCC (2)- Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
  • WAC (1)- Utah State

Key Bubble Games This Week (2/28-3/3):

  • Tuesday: Baylor at Oklahoma State- The Bears completed the season sweep of Texas A&M that constitutes the bulk of their resume to this point. This trip to Stillwater can hurt Baylor a lot more than it can help them.
  • Tuesday: Alabama at Florida- The Crimson Tide slipped Saturday at Ole Miss at a time when they can’t afford SEC losses. Their conference mark is the only factor keeping them in the field in the face of horrid computer numbers and bad out-of-conference defeats.
  • Tuesday: Boston College at Virginia Tech- Letdown game for the Hokies? Tech’s emotional upset of Duke inched them closer to climbing off the bubble, but they aren’t safe quite yet. A road win for the Eagles would set them up nicely to make the field of 68 with Wake Forest as their season finale.
  • Tuesday: Ohio State at Penn State- The Nittany Lions actually have a slightly better overall resume than Michigan, but the Wolverines inched past Penn State due to their season sweep. Once considered dead, if Penn State can shock the likely #1 team in the nation on Tuesday, they’ll be right in the thick of the conversation for a bid.
  • Wednesday: Colorado at Iowa State- First it was Nebraska upsetting Texas on their home floor to move towards the bubble before blowing their momentum with a loss in Ames. Colorado downed the Longhorns on Saturday. Will they meet the same fate?
  • Wednesday: Clemson at Duke- This is an extreme long shot, but if the Tigers can somehow pull off the upset at Cameron, they’d be an 11 seed with Virginia Tech upcoming and a chance to clinch a spot in the field.
  • Wednesday: Minnesota at Northwestern- This is essentially Minnesota’s at-large season. There’s no way the committee takes a team that’s 7-11 in the Big Ten the way the Gophers have been trending. Lose in Evanston and they’ll need to win the conference tournament.

Next bubble watch: Thursday, March 3.

Next bracket: Friday, March 4.

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