American University (#14, East, Philadelphia pod)
vs Villanova (#3)
Thur, 3/19 at 7:20 PM
Vegas Line:  +16.5

General Profile
Location: Washington, DC
Conference: Patriot League, automatic bid
Coach: Jeff Jones, 149-120
08-09 Record: 24-7, 13-1
Last 12 Games: 12-0; 13-game winning streak
Best Win: Manhattan (60-48 on 12/29 on the road)
Worst Loss: George Washington (63-50 on 12/17 on the road)
Off. Efficiency Rating: 104.3, 118th nationally
Def. Efficiency Rating: 98.6, 124th nationally

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Garrison Carr (17.8 PPG) & Derrick Mercer (11.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 4.4 APG)
Unsung Hero: Brian Gilmore (12.4 PPG and 5.4 RPG)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): N/A
Key Injuries: N/A
Depth: 21.4% (328th nationally); the bench accounts for 21.4% of the team’s total minutes
Achilles Heel: Free throw shooting (64.8% as a team)
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds get in foul trouble. Realistically they might have had a chance if the NCAA hadn’t given their opponent a home game. They would have a better shot being a #15 seed playing a #2.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Villanova doesn’t get lost on the way to the arena in its hometown.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; Lost to Tennessee in the 1st round
Streak: 1 year
Best NCAA Finish: 2008; 1st round
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.04; on average, they win 0.04 less games than expected based on their seeding each year they make the NCAA tournament

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 137 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: According to The Princeton Review, they are the most politically active campus in the nation (not surprising because of their location). According to PETA, they are also the most vegan-friendly campus. They have dry dorms.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Outside of its choice of name (now known for being those cheap stores in the mall with everything 70% off all the time)?  See the last two sentences (above). Any time PETA likes you, it’s not something to be proud of.
Prediction: American is a fine team but they’ve drawn a buzz saw — Villanova basically at home.  Obviously an upset of major proportions if AU could pull it off…but I wouldn’t count on it.
Major RTC stories: Patriot League Wrapup & Tourney Preview

Preview written by Rush the Court.

Binghamton (#15, East, Greensboro pod)
vs. Duke (#2)
Thurs. 3/19 @ 9:20pm
Vegas Line: Binghamton +21.5

General Profile
Location: Vestal, New York
Conference: America East/ Automatic
Coach: Kevin Broadus, 37-24
08-09 Record: 23-8, 13-3
Last 12 Games: 11-1, won last 11
Best Win: 91-83, Vermont,January 8, 2009
Worst Loss: 63-60, @ Bucknell, December 20, 2008
Off. Efficiency Rating: 100.9; 178
Def. Efficiency Rating: 100.8; 159

Nuts n Bolts
Star Player(s): D.J. Rivera, 20.1ppg, 6.6rpg, 1.8spg, 46.8% FG
Unsung Hero: Reggie Fuller, 0.0ppg, 7.0rpg, 1.7bpg, 56.9% FG
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): None
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 26.3%, 280
Achilles Heel: Ineffective bench and only one good forward
Will Make a Deep Run if…: D.J. Rivera scored 30ppg
Will Make an Early Exit if…: they only play like the bullies of the America East they are

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: First appearance
Streak: N/A
Best NCAA Finish: N/A
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): N/A

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: Kevin Broadus was recruiting coordinator of 2007 Georgetown Final Four team.
Distance to First Round Site:
School’s Claim to Fame: PTI’s Tony Kornheiser is a proud alum
School Wishes It Could Forget: Malik Alvin was arrested early in the season for stealing condoms early in the season
Prediction: First round loss. The America East is a competitive small conference but nothing that can compete with the big time schools they will play in the first round.
Major RTC stories: N/A

Preview written by Corey Johns of UMBC Sports Blog.

Southern California (# 10, Midwest, Minneapolis pod)
vs. Boston College (# 7)
Fri., 3/20 at 7:20 PM
Vegas Line: USC, -2

General Profile
Location: Los Angeles, California
Conference: Pac-10, automatic bid
Coach: Tim Floyd, 89-57
08-09 Record: 22-12, 9-9
Last 12 Games: 6-6, but currently on a 5-game winning streak
Best Win: 65-55, UCLA, 3/13/2009
Worst Loss: 62-58 (OT), Oregon State, 1/4/2009
Off. Efficiency Rating: 109.7, 62nd nationally
Def. Efficiency Rating: 90.5, 19th nationally

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player: Taj Gibson – 14.3 ppg/9.4 rpg
Unsung Hero: DeMar DeRozen – He’s like OJ Mayo II, but with less touches thanks to Gibson’s improvement in the past year.
Potential NBA Draft Picks: DeMar DeRozen – 10^th overall in 2009; Taj Gibson – 33^rd overall in 2009; Daniel Hackett – 60^th overall in 2010
Key Injuries: No injuries to report
Depth: 21.9% (324th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: The charity stripe. USC’s starters shoot a paltry 68% from the line.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: The USC starters use their size advantage. Both of Southern Cal’s starting guards are listed at 6’5″ and 215 lbs, creating nightmare match-ups for smaller opponents.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: They don’t continue on this hot streak that got them their bid-stealing Pac-10 title.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008, 1st round
Streak: 3 straight years now for USC.
Best NCAA Finish: Final Four appearances in 1940 and 1954.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): Not enough data (minimum 8 bids during the period)

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 1,926 miles.
School’s Claim to Fame: USC is the alma mater of many famous figures, including Neil Armstrong, George Lucas, Will Ferrell, and John Wayne.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Since Floyd arrived at USC in 2005, the program hasn’t exactly been the pride of the NCAA. The most recent incident came to light in May of 2008, when reports surfaced that during his lone season playing for the Trojans, OJ Mayo had received $30,000 in benefits.
Prediction: Southern Cal has a good chance of beating the higher-seeded BC team in the first round. That means a good old Trojans vs. Spartans war in the second round, but with Gus Johnson narrating instead of Homer – MSU advances, USC goes home.
Major RTC stories: OJ Mayo’s End of an Era and No more OJs at USC?

Preview written by Matt the Intern of Rush the Court

Michigan (#10, South, Kansas City pod)

vs. Clemson (#7)

Thurs. 3/19 @ 7:10pm
Vegas Line:  Michigan +5

General Profile
Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Conference: Big 10, at-large
Coach: John Beilein, 30-34
08-09 Record: 20-13, 10-10
Last 12 Games: 6-6
Best Win: vs. Duke, 81-73, 12/06
Worst Loss: @ Iowa, 60-70, 2/22
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.4, 41st
Def. Efficiency Rating: 95.5, 67th

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Manny Harris (17/7/4 assts); DeShawn Sims (16/7)
Unsung Hero: The freshmen corps of Laval Lucas-Perry, Zach Novak and Stu Perry
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): None
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 35.3%, 72nd nationally (Percentage of minutes played by reserves)
Achilles Heel: The really good Beilein teams can shoot it from deep.  This team can’t (33%, 10th in the Big 10).
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Harris and Sims both play well and getting help from their freshman teammates.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Either of the two has an off game and the threes aren’t dropping.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 1998, lost 2d round to UCLA 85-82
Streak: 1
Best NCAA Finish: 1989, National Champions
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.38 Ws per appearance

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: Umm… other than the fact that Ford Field is only 38 miles away, both Harris and Sims are from the Motor City.
Distance to First Round Site: 751 miles to Kansas City.
School’s Claim to Fame: UM is a world-class academic institution and, of course, the Fab Five.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The whole sordid Ed Martin scandal surrounding the aforementioned F5.
Prediction: Befitting a young team, Michigan has been terrible on the road (3-8); there’s really no reason to believe that they’re going to win a neutral site game against a more experienced team like Clemson.
Major RTC stories: The Fraud Five or Fab 5?

Preview written by Rush the Court

Oklahoma State (#8, East, Dayton pod)
vs. Tennessee (#9)
Fri. 3/20 @ 12:25pm
Vegas Line: Oklahoma St. +2

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile
Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma
Conference: Big 12, at-large
Coach: Travis Ford, 22-11
08-09 Record: 22-11, 11-8
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: vs. Oklahoma (N), 71-70, 03/12
Worst Loss: @ Baylor, 98-82, 1/17
Off. Efficiency Rating: 115.2, 16th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 95.9, 73rd

Nuts n Bolts
Star Player(s): James Anderson (19/6 on 49%/41%/83% shooting).
Unsung Hero: Byron Eaton (14/4/6 assts/2 stls) as a floor leader.
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Anderson, #21, 2010 draft
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 23.5% (315th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Defense.  OSU can run with most anybody, but they can’t play defense worth a lick (#213 nationally in FG% defense).
Will Make a Deep Run if…: The threes fall and they don’t face substantial size in the post.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Byron Eaton gets into foul trouble, as he makes the entire offense go.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2005, lost Sweet 16 to Arizona 79-78
Streak: 1
Best NCAA Finish: 1945 & 1946, National Champions
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.23 Ws per appearance than would be expected based on its seeding based on historical data.

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: OSU’s biggest benefactor is T. Boone Pickens, who made his fortune in energy markets.  Detroit is traditionally a huge spoke in the wheel of Big Energy.
Distance to First Round Site: 821 miles to Dayton.
School’s Claim to Fame: Garth Brooks is OSU’s most notable alumnus.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The Johnny Bright Incident.
Prediction: Oklahoma St drew a team in the Vols that likes to run and gun as much as the Cowboys do.  This is a winnable game, but the next one against Pitt isn’t unless DeJuan Blair gets himself in foul trouble.
Major RTC stories: None

Preview written by Rush the Court

West Virginia (#6, Midwest, Minneapolis Pod)
vs. Dayton (#11)
Fri. 3/20 @ 3:00 PM
Vegas Line: West Virginia, -8.5

General Profile
Location: Morgantown, West Virginia
Conference: Big East, at large
Coach: Bob Huggins, 47-21
08-09 Record: 24-11, 10-8
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: 74-60, Pittsburgh, 3/12/2009
Worst Loss: 65-61, Cincinnati, 2/26/2009
Off. Efficiency Rating: 115.3, 15th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 88.0, 7th

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Players: Da’Sean Butler – 17.3 ppg/6.0 rpg; Alex Ruoff – 15.9 ppg
Unsung Hero: Devin Ebanks – 10.4 ppg/7.7 rpg
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Devin Ebanks – 8th overall in 2010; Da’Sean Butler – 41st overall in 2010
Key Injuries: Joe Mazzulla – out for season (shoulder)
Depth: 25.5% (289 nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Inconsistency. WVU is the most inconsistent at-large team in the tourney, and 325th out of 344 in NCAA Division I. Since the start of conference play, their longest win streak is three games.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Freshman Devin Ebanks continues to post personal bests in points and rebounds like he did in the Big East tournament.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The Mountaineers keep up this hot-then-cold phenomenon that plagued them during the season.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008, Sweet 16
Streak: This is WVU’s 3rd straight trip.
Best NCAA Finish: 1959 Final Four
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): Not enough data (requires 8 bids in the period).

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: Before hiring current head coach Bob Huggins, the WVU basketball team was under the charge of John Beilein. Beilein now coaches at Michigan, and his star player, Manny Harris, is a Detroit native.
Distance to First Round Site: 936 miles.
School’s Claim to Fame: The man on the NBA logo, Jerry West, is WVU’s greatest basketball alum, holding the school records for points and rebounds.
School Wishes It Could Forget: When football coach Rich Rodriguez left Morgantown for the University of Michigan, many Mountaineer fans were not pleased. Rodriguez and his family were the target of hate mail, vandalism, and death threats from fans angered by his departure.
Prediction: On paper, West Virginia looks like a team that can beat Kansas and Michigan State to make it to the Midwest Regional Final. However, the wild inconsistency that characterized the regular season will show up in the tournament. WVU loses in the Sweet 16, just like 2008.
Major RTC stories: Where 2008-09 Happens: Reason #20 Why We Love College Basketball and Huggins Takes the Fall

Preview written by Matt the Intern of Rush the Court

Memphis (#2 seed, West, Kansas City pod)

vs. California State Northridge (#15)
March 19th, 12:25 P.M.

Vegas Line:  Memphis -19.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Memphis, Tennessee
Conference: Conference USA, won the conference tournament
Coach: John Calipari, 251-68 at Memphis
08-09 Record: 28-3, 16-0 C-USA
Last 12 Games: 12-0
Best Win: 68-50 v. Gonzaga, February 7th
Worst Loss: 70-79 v. Georgetown, December 13th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.8/ 39th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 79.4/ 1st overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s):  Tyreke Evans- 16.6 points/game, 5.5 rebounds/game, 3.8 assists/game, 2.1 steals/game
Unsung Hero:  Antonio Anderson- 10.2 points/game, 4.9 rebounds/game, 4.1 assists/game, 43.8 FG%
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s):  Tyreke Evans- projected 36th overall
Key Injuries: none
Depth: 26.6%, 270th overall
Achilles Heel: The Tigers are extremely athletic, but they don’t shoot the ball particularly well. They only shoot 32% from behind the arc as a team, and they still shoot under 70% (69.6) from the charity stripe as a team as well. Tyreke Evans has been a solid point guard, but his strength is his drive and kick ability, but if there is no one out there to shoot, they will struggle.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: The Tigers are easily the best defensive team in the country, but one gets the feeling that the offense truly revolves around the turnovers they create, and the play-making ability of Evans. If Evans doesn’t turn the ball over and the team continues to suffocate the opponents, they have a great shot at the Final Four.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Evans turns the ball over a lot and the Tigers go cold from behind the arc, they will really struggle. They won’t struggle in the first round, but
Maryland and California are both solid teams with really good players that can play defense and create their own shots. If the Tigers aren’t able to get out on the break via created turnovers, they will have trouble scoring against the Terps or Bears

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost to Kansas in the National Championship game.
Streak: Three consecutive years
Best NCAA Finish: They have lost in the National Championship game in 1973, and 2008.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.17 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None
Distance to First Round Site: 452 miles away from Kansas City, Missouri
School’s Claim to Fame: Kentucky might have Ashley Judd, but the Tigers have Justin Timberlake!!….Ok, kidding! I scoured for a real claim to fame, and really all I came up with was that Michael Wilson, a former Tiger and current Harlem Globetrotter, holds the record for highest slam dunk (12 feet) ever. So there’s that.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The misfortunes of the 1985 Final Four team.
Prediction: Despite their soft schedule, the Tigers should have no problem reaching the Sweet 16. A match-up between Missouri and Memphis would be awesome to watch for defensive minds, and Missouri has the type of players to exploit Memphis’ lack of a true point guard. However, I think Calipari’s squad will get through Missouri before succumbing to UCONN in the Elite Eight

Major RTC stories: Reflections on Monday Night

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

MARQUETTE (#6, West, Boise pod)

vs. Utah State (#11)
March 20th, 12:30 P.M.

Vegas Line: Marquette -4.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Conference: Big East, at-large bid
Coach: Buzz Williams, 24-9 at Marquette
08-09 Record: 24-9, 13-7 Big East
Last 12 Games: 5-7
Best Win: 79-72 v. Villanova, February 10th
Worst Loss: 56-57 v. South Florida, February 6th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.7/ 9th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 94.2/ 56th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s):  Jerel McNeal- 19.7 points/game, 4.6 rebounds/game, 4.0 assists/game, 2.1 steals/game ;Wesley Matthews- 18.4 points/game, 5.6 rebounds/game, 2.6 assists/game, 48.8 FG%
Unsung Hero:  Lazar Hayward- 16.1 points/game, 8.6 rebounds/game, 35.5 3PT%
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s):  Jerel McNeal- projected 52nd overall
Key Injuries:  Dominic James- season-ending broken left foot
Depth: 24.6%/ 311th overall
Achilles Heel: It is not just a lack of depth that has been exacerbated with the loss of Dominic James, the Golden Eagles were essentially a four-horse team and almost all of their meaningful production came from McNeal, Matthews, James, and Hayward. Without James, Maurice Acker takes over, but he isn’t the same type of threat. This is still an extremely talented team, but you could tell down the stretch how they hang with teams for awhile, and then fade.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: If the Golden Eagles shoot the lights out, they could make a deep run. The team loves to shoot and McNeal, Matthews, and Hayward have no qualms about chucking it up. If they shoot the ball well, they will beat a lot of teams because they play great defense and don’t turn the ball over a tremendous amount. They need their Big Three to play well in every game, if they don’t it will be a short first tournament for Buzz Williams.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: If McNeal or Matthews or Hayward has an off-night, Marquette just doesn’t have the players to make up for that type of scoring loss…period.

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost to Stanford in the Round of 32
Streak: Three straight years
Best NCAA Finish: They won the National Championship in 1977
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.20 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None
Distance to First Round Site: 1736.47 miles away from Boise, Idaho
School’s Claim to Fame: Al McGuire was the coach of the Marquette Golden Eagles from 1964-1977, won their only National Championship, and is still celebrated like a king at that school. Known for his colorful personality, he is a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame and he could probably be elected Mayor in Milwaukee, Wisconsin had he not died in 2001.
School Wishes It Could Forget: In 2007, the school played Michigan State in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament and the whole school turned out to see the game, even though it was during spring break. The Golden Eagles then proceeded to get shut out for the first nine minutes of the game and make it a very long spring break for Marquette fans and students.
Prediction: The Golden Eagles are still a good team without Dominic James, and they have more than enough talent to beat Utah State. But if Missouri makes it through to the second round, their full court press will wreck havoc on the Golden Eagles, especially Acker. They don’t have the depth to play with the Tigers for 40 minutes.

Major RTC stories:  ATB: Marquette’s Dominic James Out for the Season

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

Louisville (#1 seed, Midwest, Dayton pod)

vs. Morehead State (#16)
Friday, March 20th, 7:10pm

Vegas Line: Louisville -21

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Conference: Big East, won the conference tournament
Coach: Rick Pitino, 197-72 (so far) at Louisville
08-09 Record: 28-5, 19-2 Big East
Last 12 Games: 11-1
Best Win: 69-63 v. Pittsburgh, January 17th
Worst Loss: 57-90 v. Notre Dame, February 12th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.1/ 46^th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 84.0/ 2^nd overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Terrence Williams- 12.6 points/game, 8.5 rebounds/game, 5.0 assists/game, 2.3 steals/game

Unsung Hero: Jerry Smith- 7.3 points/game, 1.2 steals/game, 38.7 3Pt%

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Earl Clark/ projected 8th overall… Terrence Williams/ projected 42nd overall

Injuries: None

Depth: 31.5%/155th

Achilles Heel: Discipline is the one thing that Louisville has lacked in their losses. Earl Clark is an other-world talent, but he shoots just 30.1% from downtown, so why does he continue to bomb? The Cardinals don’t need Edgar Sosa to score for them to be successful, but he is shooting even worse than Clark and has taken more threes. It is difficult to find a team with more talent, and experience, but sometimes the Cardinals don’t use all that talent efficiently.

Will Make a Deep Run if… If Edgar Sosa plays under control and distributes instead of trying to score, and Pitino can keep Samardo Samuels and Terrance Jennings out of foul trouble, the Cardinals will be in most people’s Final Four brackets, and will probably be a championship contender. On the biggest stage in the sport it seems the Cardinals will not be prone to their occasional letdown, and if they take good shots they will be one of the best teams in.

Will Make an Early Exit if… If they get off to a slow start against a team and have to play from behind, they will struggle. From behind the Cardinals will start to force up bad shots, they will try to make too many plays and end up turning the ball over. There is no mid-major team that can play with Louisville when they are on their game; they just need to stay focused.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost in the Elite Eight to North Carolina

Streak: Two consecutive years

Best NCAA Finish: They were National Champions in 1980 and 1986.

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.46 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: (provide some/any connection to the Motor City)

Distance to First Round Site: 152.88 miles away from Dayton, Ohio

School’s Claim to Fame:

School Wishes It Could Forget: Among the list of famous alumni of the University on Wikipedia are notable scholars, architects, musicians…oh, and Larry Birkhead, Anna Nicole Smith’s baby’s daddy. Did I miss something? Does he really get to be listed as a famous alumnus because he needed a paternity test to prove he was a lover of Anna Nicole Smith? Maybe I am wrong and the University of Louisville embraces him, but my guess is he is not at the top of their list for Commencement Speakers.

Prediction: I am just going to come out and say it. The Louisville Cardinals are the best team in the tournament and will win the NCAA Title. The way they dismantled the rest of the Big East, it looked like no one could hang with them. The Cardinals play smothering defense and are scoring points of the turnovers they create. If they continue to play within themselves, there is no one that can beat them.

Major RTC stories:  None

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

ILLINOIS (#5 seed, South, Portland pod)

vs. Western Kentucky (#12)
March 19th, 9:55 P.M.

Vegas Line:  Illinois -4.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Champaign, Illinois
Conference: Big Ten, conf./at-large
Coach: Bruce Weber, 150-53 at Illinois
08-09 Record: 24-9, 12-8 Big Ten
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: 75-59 v. Missouri, December 23rd
Worst Loss: 36-59 v. Minnesota, January 29th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 106.0/ 98th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 85.9/ 4th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Mike Davis- 11.4 points/game, 8.0 rebounds/game, 53.7 FG%

Unsung Hero:  Chester Frazier- 5.7 points/game, 5.3 assists/game, 4.8 rebounds/game, 1.4 steals/game

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): None

Key Injuries: Frazier was hurt during the Big Ten tournament because of a badly bruised hand, but I seriously doubt he would miss the tournament, especially in his senior season.

Depth: 24.8%/ 306th overall

Achilles Heel: Illinois is one of the best defensive teams in the country let alone the Big Ten, but they just can’t seem to score the ball on a consistent basis. Davis and Demetri McCamey are the two best offensive players on the Fighti Illni squad, and even they aren’t scary to opposing defenses. Their offensive efficiency is just 98^th in the country, and they don’t have a real three-point threat outside of Trent Meacham. Teams will try to push Davis out of the box and keep McCamey from penetrating in order to force someone else to step up.

Will Make a Deep Run if… The Illini will make a deep run if they continue to play stifling defense and if they find a third option on offense. Dominique Keller, Meacham, and Alex Legion all have the potential for big games offensively, and if one of them plays well offensively the Illini could give a lot of teams headaches.

Will Make an Early Exit if… If the shots aren’t falling for Bruce Weber’s team and Mike Davis is neutralized by another athletic big man, you can almost write the Illini off right away. Not many teams scored less than 40 points this season, but Illinois did it twice, and both nights they had almost no offensive identity. If Davis gets in foul trouble, the Illinois offense disappears.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2007, lost in the first round to Virginia Tech

Streak None

Best NCAA Finish: They lost in the National Championship game to North Carolina in 2005.

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.25 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None

Distance to First Round Site: 2120.17 miles away from Portland, Oregon

School’s Claim to Fame: They do have Michael Jordan’s son on their basketball team, but even more important is how impressive a public institution Illinois is. The Illini are ranked the No. 10 public institution by the U.S. World News Report, and No. 40 in national institutions by the same report. Did I mention that Michael Jordan’s son goes there?

School Wishes It Could Forget: Ah the good ole days of Chief Illiniwek had been the mascot for Illinois since 1926, until in 2007 when Native Americans complained about the borderline racism and inaccurate representation of indigenous culture. Nothing like realizing the University has been making a mockery of indigenous culture for almost a century.

Prediction: The Illini have struggled to put the ball in the basket, and as a result they find themselves almost the underdog in their first round game against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a very dangerous team in the backcourt, and Chester Frazier is gimpy. Unfortunately for Illinois, that adds up to a first round exit.

Major RTC stories: MJ Just Saved Himself $63,426…

Preview written by…Mike Lemaire