These two teams have perfected the art of wining close games lately, with the Spartans winning back to back road games by one point.  Wisconsin lost a nail biter against Purdue on Thursday, but has had recent comebacks in the closing minutes against Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State.  The Kohl Center is one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball.  Wisconsin’s slow style of play does not make for the most exciting games, but if they take the Spartans down to the wire, The Grateful Red will make for quite an atmosphere.  The Badgers have not lost at home this year, but this may be the best team Wisconsin has seen all year.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Connecticut @ Louisville – 7 pm on ESPN (**)

It’s not too often that a team can be ranked one week and out of the Tournament the next, but that is what UConn could be facing after following up a #19 ranking with back to back losses.  The Huskies lost at Providence and allowed Marquette to come back in the final minute for another loss, and the Huskies now stand on the outer edge of the bubble at 13-8 overall.  Their RPI ranking is fairly acceptable at #44, but they are going to have to play well at Louisville to give themselves a chance.  The Cardinals, who have not been ranked for a while, have a lower RPI and really need to turn things around soon to receive a Tournament bid.  They have lost four of their last five games and the Huskies have lost five of their last seven games.   Both of these teams are going to have to play to their strengths if they want to be successful down the stretch.  Louisville has a solid offense at 79.8 points per game, largely due to their efficiency and solid rebounding.   The Huskies have played well defensively this year, leading the country with 8.5 blocks per game.  These teams have occasionally struggled even when they have been able to play their style.  UL lost its only Big East games when Samardo Samuels scores over 20 points, and Connecticut has lost games when they gave up 70, 68, 67, 64, and 68 points.  Still, UL is not going to win games by holding opponents to 60 points, and the Huskies aren’t going to be lighting up the scoreboard.  The Huskies have not won on the road this year, and I do not expect them to start winning tonight in the midst of another losing streak.

#6 Texas @ Oklahoma State – 9 pm on ESPN (***)

James Has Been On Fire Lately

These teams are struggling despite some of the best individual performances we have seen in the Big 12 all year.  The Longhorns have lost three of four games, but senior Damion James has been on a tear.  He’s averaging 24/13 in his last three games.  Oklahoma State’s James Anderson scored 31 points in his last game against Missouri and still lost, largely due to giving up 95 points to a Missouri team that shot 55 percent from three in the game.  Nobody knows what to expect from either of these teams anymore, but look for the Cowboys to get a close win.  Oklahoma State is undefeated this year at home, while the Longhorns have dropped their last two road games.  Despite the Longhorns ranking in the top 10 in defensive efficiency on the year, they have played quite poorly as of late.  They have surrendered over 80 points per game in this four-game stretch, and have also seen their offensive numbers drop.  UT is second in the country at 85.3 points per game, but when they only rank 34^th in offensive efficiency, they are going to lose some games when they play poorly on the other end.  James and Anderson can only lead their teams so far, so somebody else will have to step up and make a difference in this game.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Florida @ #14 Tennessee – 1 pm on CBS (***)

These football rivals will face each other for the first time this year, and it should be a good one.  Tennessee has had a better season overall, but is going in the opposite direction of Florida.  After winning seven straight games following the arrest of Tyler Smith and three others, the Volunteers dropped a bad game at Georgia and followed that up with a home loss to Vanderbilt.  The Gators, on the other hand, have won four straight games to grab a share for third place in the SEC.  They have given up less than 68 points per game in that stretch, and Tennessee has surrendered 78 and 85 points in their last two contests.  For the whole year, UT has played better defense, ranking #16 in defensive efficiency, and the Vols average nine steals per game.  For UT to get back on the winning side, they are going to have to revert back to their old style of defense against a Florida team that has five players that average double figures.  Led by Kenny Boynton, a freshman who scores 15 PPG, the balanced Gator attack puts up over 73 points per game.  The game is in Knoxville, but the Gators are 3-1 on the road this year, so this game should go to the wire.  To be fair, Florida’s four wins have come against bad SEC teams in LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia, so I expect the Vols to bounce back against a Florida team that may not be as good as their record indicates.

Maryland @ #21 Clemson – 5:30 pm on FSN (****)

Vasquez Hopes to Avoid This Feeling vs. Clemson

Maryland may not know it, but they are fighting for the tournament lives just as much as Clemson is.  The Terrapins, who currently sit atop the ACC, are ranked 50^th in the RPI (Clemson is #46) and with a couple losses they could be looking at a bubble spot.  Clemson, who just three games ago was sitting at 15-3, will now have to defeat the conference leaders to avoid a fourth straight loss.  If Clemson loses tonight, they will be 3-5 in the ACC, and due to their recent loss at Boston College, would claim sole possession of 10^th place in the conference.  There is no way the selection committee will allow a team that plays that poorly in conference to get into the tournament, so Clemson needs to channel what allowed them the hot start to avoid another epic collapse.  The key for the Tigers to win this game is to shut down Maryland’s high powered arsenal.  The Terrapins rank in the top fifteen in the country in points per game, assists per game, and rank in the top ten in assists to turnover ratio and offensive efficiency.  Maryland is led by the fiery Greivis Vasquez, who scores 17.8 points per contest and also ranks 8^th in the country at 6.2 assists per game.  Clemson has the ability to the ability to shut down powerful offenses, as they have not allowed an opponent to score over 75 points per game since December 2.  They are seventh in the country at 10.2 steals per game and ranked ninth in defensive efficiency.  Despite playing at home, their recent play cannot be overlooked and look for the Terrapins to further raise the bar in the ACC.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#7 Duke @ #11 Georgetown  1:00 CBS (****)

Duke Will Have Its Hands Full in DC

Although John Thompson III has said he does not want to be playing in this out of conference matchup right now, fans have been looking forward to this game for quite some time.  In addition to the possibility of President Obama attending the game, this is a matchup between a current #2 seed in the tournament and a #3 or #4 seed in Georgetown.  When Duke’s 82.2 ppg offense goes against Georgetown’s 62.0 defensive average, something is going to have to budge.  Despite Duke’s top ranking in offensive efficiency, they will certainly not be able to run over the Hoyas.  GU held Pitt to 66 points on the road, and held Syracuse, UConn, and Marquette below their season average.  Although Duke outscores the Hoyas by over 10 points per contest on average, they also hold opponents to fewer points per game rank higher in defensive efficiency.  Nevertheless, the Blue Devils lost their first three road games of the year to Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, and Clemson, none of whom are as dangerous as the Hoyas.  GU blew a golden opportunity at the Carrier Dome last week, so look for them to take out some frustration on the Blue Devils. Austin Freeman scored 23 points against the Orange, and the Hoyas will likely depend on him to give Georgetown the win.

Oklahoma St @ Missouri 2:00 ESPN (***)

As George W. Bush once attempted to say, “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.”  Oklahoma State made me look foolish when they beat Texas A&M last week, and Missouri embarrassed me with their performance in Lawrence when they kept up with the Jayhawks for the first five minutes and called it a day.  The Cowboys have now won three Big 12 games in a row, while Mizzou has now lost two of their last three contests.  OSU showed they could win without a strong performance from James Anderson, who didn’t score the first 18 minutes of the Aggie game.  The Aggies do have a couple things going for them as well.  They will be playing at home, where they are 12-0 this year, and still rank #12 in the country according to Ken Pomeroy with their sixth ranked defense.  Their D didn’t look so impressive last week when they gave up 50 first half points to Kansas, as they let the Jayhawks shoot over 49 percent from the floor and 47 percent from beyond the arc.  Senior Obi Muonelo is hot for Oklahoma State right now, and look for him to lead the Cowboys to a fourth consecutive Big 12 win.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#16 Wisconsin @ #12 Purdue – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

Not For the Faint of Heart Tonight

This game has huge conference and tournament seeding implications.  This battle between the second and third best teams in the Big 10 could decide if these teams get a #3 or #4 seed in March Madness.  Is Purdue actually back from that recent three-game losing streak?  They’ve won their last two games against Illinois and Michigan, but did not excel in either game.  Wisconsin has also been winning ugly lately, needing desperate runs in the closing minutes to beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State.  When will their slow starts finally catch up with them?  If Wisconsin keeps playing fundamentally sound, they can stay in any game no matter how poorly they shoot.  The Badgers, who score only 68.7 points per game, commit the least turnovers of anybody in the country right now, and will likely shatter their school record for fewest turnovers in a season.  Largely due to the fact they don’t give up fast break points, opponents score only 57 points per game, something Robbie Hummel and the Boilermakers would like to change.  They only scored 66 points against Wisconsin when they lost their first game of the season.  Jon Leuer’s injury has been a big blow to the Badgers, but he injured his wrist just minutes into the Purdue game and the Badgers found a way to win.  Purdue, despite their high ranking, does not rank in the top fifty in either points per game or points given up per game, so look for UW’s stingy defense to once again shut down the Boilermakers.

Wake Forest @ #22 Georgia Tech 7 pm on FSN (****)

Georgia Tech is a ranked team, but they are in danger of playing themselves out of a solid seed for the NCAA Tournament.  If they lose tonight, they will be .500 in January, a trend they will need to stop before they find themselves on the bubble come Selection Sunday.  With their poor offense (they rank  #65 in offensive efficiency) they can cannot continue to turn the ball over 16.2 times per game.  Wake Forest, on the other hand, is getting better every day.   They have now beaten the top two teams in the conference standings in Maryland and Virginia, and Al-Farouq Aminu continues to be a beast this year at over 11 boards per game.  Their defense is solid as well, coming at #13 in Pomeroy’s rankings, and held Virginia to just 57 points in their last game.  The major concern for The Demon Deacons is their recent road performances, which include a 20-point loss to Duke and a loss to Miami who has yet to win another ACC game.  The Yellow Jackets have two forwards to contain Aminu, but Gani Lawal shot just 1-5 from the floor and 3-8 from the line in their loss to Florida State.  Expect WFU to limit Lawal’s total again, and for the Demon Deacons to finally crack the Top 25.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#23 Vanderbilt @ #14 Tennessee – 7pm on ESPNU (*****)

This should be an absolutely fantastic game. It features one of the country’s favorite teams right now in Bruce Pearl’s new-look Volunteers, as well as the most underrated team in the country in Vanderbilt. These teams are in-state rivals, and a win will be huge for either team. Tennessee just suffered their first loss since the arrest of four players earlier this month to Georgia over the weekend. This group of “new” players has not had to face adversity yet this year on the court, so it will be key for their confidence to win this one at home. Vanderbilt is on a tear, winning their last nine games en route to becoming the only undefeated team remaining in the SEC. They have shown the ability to play both sound offense and defense at times, but tonight’s game will truly test their grit when they play in Knoxville, where the Volunteers have not lost since last season. As Wayne Chism goes, so goes the Vols. He only scored six points in UT’s loss to Georgia and eight points in their loss to USC, but he has shown the ability to carry the team on his back as well (Ole Miss comes to mind). If Chism gets going against the Commodores, Tennessee will keep their home winning streak alive.

Notre Dame @ #3 Villanova – 7 pm on ESPN (***)

This is a fantastic game, but it may be lost among the plethora of incredible matchups available tonight. The Irish are right on the bubble if the season ended today, and they have six winnable games coming up on the horizon, so a victory over Villanova tonight could spark the fire they need to push through this season. Notre Dame is not getting much love in the polls, at #68 in the RPI and #80 according to Ken Pomeroy, but they are comparable to Villanova statistically. They average over 80 points a game and give up just 0.6 points more per contest than the Wildcats. Villanova is one of those teams that finds ways to win games, but Notre Dame has already beaten a top ten team previously this season in West Virginia. That victory was at home, though, and they will need to step up their game to win at the Wachovia Center, where the Wildcats are undefeated. Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher are the two guards to watch in this game, but Notre Dame also has some underrated guards in Ben Hansbrough and Tory Jackson that get overshadowed by their big men. Those two average more than five assists per game (Villanova has just one guard averaging over 3.5 per game) to complement forward Luke Harangody who can get down the court fairly quickly for a 246-pound player. Villanova has had more success this season, and is probably more talented as well, so expect the Wildcats to get off to their best start in school history tonight.

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SYT Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#5 Michigan State @ Michigan – 7 pm on ESPN  (***)

This rivalry game has a different meaning for these two schools, as it could be the difference between a #1 or #2 seed for Michigan State, while Michigan is fighting for its postseason life.  UM coach John Beilein refused to call the game a must-win, but he obviously thinks so as he lifted Manny Harris’ recent suspension in time for the game.  Harris, Michigan’s leading scorer at 19.2 points per contest, will need to have a performance similar to his effort against UConn if Michigan has a shot to win this game.  The Spartans, who have won eight games in a row, are a well-rounded team.  Led by guard Kalin Lucas, they have one of the highest shooting percentages of any team in the country.  They are also exceptional at rebounding and play consistent defense, holding opponents under 65 points in their last three games.  Although most fans will tell you the Spartans are top ten team, Ken Pomeroy has them ranked 16th and the RPI ranks them at #14.  If they blow out the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, they will at least make some progress towards advancing in the computer ratings.

#11 Kansas St. @ #24 Baylor – 8 pm on ESPN360  (****)

Tonight's Game of the Night (AP/Charlie Riedel)

This is tonight’s only matchup between two ranked teams, and it should be a good one.  Not many people saw KSU’s loss to Oklahoma State coming, but now they will try to avoid their first losing streak of the season.  The Wildcats are 16-3 and ranked #11 in the latest poll, but the Bears are 15-3 and are playing at home where they are 10-0 this season.  Baylor features a few impressive players in LaceDarius Dunn, who averages over 19 points per game, and Tweety Carter, who ranks third in the nation at 6.7 assists per game.  Lost in the mix is Quincy Acy, a sophomore who leads the country in field goal percentage at an outstanding 71%.  As a team, Baylor ranks fifth nationally in field goal shooting, while the Wildcats rank 69th.  On Saturday, the Wildcats went over seven minutes without a field goal in the loss to OSU, and they will lose again if Jacob Pullen is held below his season average.  Both teams are struggling right now following their 13-1 starts, as Baylor has gone 2-2, while KSU has gone 3-2 since.  Tournament seeds and conference standings are on the line, and look for Baylor to give the Wildcats a second consecutive loss.  With a game against Kansas on Saturday, are the Wildcats in the midst of a three-game losing streak?

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SYT Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Georgetown @ Syracuse – 7 pm on ESPN (*****)

These two teams seem to be more impressive every day, and a win tonight will be huge if Syracuse wants to get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament or if Georgetown wants a #2 or #3 seed come March.  Georgetown has beaten several good teams in Butler, UConn and Pitt, while Syracuse has also beaten Cal, West Virginia, and Notre Dame.  With that said, somebody is going to have to lose tonight.  It should be interesting to see how Georgetown’s defense does against the powerful and balanced Syracuse attack.  The Hoyas only allow 61.4 points per game, but Ken Pomeroy ranks their defense at #33, so the game largely hinges on GU’s ability to stop Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins.  If the Orange can put up 80 points on Georgetown, that doesn’t necessarily spell doom, as the Hoyas are coming off an 88-point performance in an easy win against Rutgers.  In Georgetown’s last loss, a 82-77 defeat to Villanova, Chris Wright scored just six points, his second lowest point total of the season.  Expect Wright to get more points tonight against Syracuse, but the Hoyas will likely struggle to get a win in the Carrier Dome.

Missouri @ Kansas – 9 pm on ESPN (****)

A quick look at an unranked Missouri team going against a #3 Kansas team in Lawrence would look like a blowout, but the Tigers may surprise a lot of people in this game.  The 15-4 Tigers are third in the Big 12 and have beaten Kansas State in addition to a 37-point shellacking of Oregon.  Ken Pomeroy has KU as the top team in the country, but the Tigers crack his overall top ten due to their #8 defense.  Mizzou held Kansas State to 68 points, which is still their season low.  Nevertheless, the Jayhawks are always strong and are coming off four straight Big 12 wins.  They have the rare ability to fly down the court with Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry and dominate in the paint with Cole Aldrich.  At 81.6 points per game, the Tigers can put some points on the board as well.  To be honest, Kansas has not faced many tough teams this season, and Missouri appears to be the best team they have yet played.  What makes this game even more intriguing is that with a win tonight, Missouri would actually grab first place in the Big 12.  Look for Missouri to give Kansas a run for their money, and could end up coming away with a shocker tonight.

SYT Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Georgia Tech @ Florida State – 12 pm on ESPN360  (****)

This contest between two 14-4 teams should be highly entertaining.  FSU’s early season success is starting to look less impressive as their earlier opponents continue to struggle and the Seminoles drag their feet through ACC play.  Nevertheless, the Seminoles have built a solid resume so far and a win over Georgia Tech would only further their tournament potential.  At the beginning of conference play in Atlanta, Florida State handed the Yellow Jackets their only home loss of the season in overtime.  Ryan Reid, a senior who hadn’t scored in double digits in his previous nine games, led the Seminoles with 17 in that game.  Could he have the hot hand again on Sunday?  A more likely scenario would be for the scoring to come from big men Solomon Alabi and Gani Lawal.  Georgia Tech averages more points per game, but Ken Pomeroy ranks their offense 73rd in offensive efficiency, so look for Tech’s offense to slow down against a Seminoles squad that surrenders just 59.8 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets have a respectable 4-2 road record, but given FSU’s performances at home this year, and that they won the first matchup in Atlanta, expect the Seminoles to remain a four-loss team.

Cincinnati @ Louisville – 12 pm on ESPN360  (***)

These are the games that the selection committee takes a look at when they decide who gets left out of the tournament.  The 13-6 Bearcats and 12-7 Cardinals have some work to do to play themselves back in, and a win Sunday would be a good start.  With wins over Notre Dame and South Florida in their last two games, UC already appears to be on their way to improving their stock.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, have lost three games in a row, and a fourth consecutive loss will not help their chances.  One of the worst qualities about UL is their inability to finish close games.  Of their seven losses, five have been by single digits, including a heartbreaking collapse in the final minute against Pitt followed by a three point loss to Seton Hall.  Louisville at least has the luxury of playing at home, and Cincinnati is just 1-4 on the road this year.  UC’s Lance Stephenson and Samardo Samuels will be interesting to watch.  Both players are extremely inconsistent, so if one has a hot hand on Sunday they will likely lead their team to victory.

Penn State @ Wisconsin – 2:30 pm on BTN  (***)

Wisconsin has had a respectable 2-1 record since Jon Leuer’s injury, but they have gotten it done in extremely ugly ways.  In their 54-48 win against Michigan last week, they did not take their first lead until there was just three minutes left in the game, largely due to a 6:05 scoreless streak to start the game.  They shot just 34 percent from the field, including 16.7 percent from beyond the arc, which will not cut it every night.  However, it may be enough to get by Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are 0-6 in the Big Ten this year, and have lost to bad teams like Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan.  Teams just don’t win in the Kohl Center, and Penn State is no exception.  Besides junior guard Talor Battle, the Nittany Lions do not have a second option on offense.  With Wisconsin only surrendering 56.2 points per game this year (due largely in part to their ability to run the clock down on every possession) look for even Battle to struggle in this game.  Still, Penn State’s last three losses have come by a total of 10 points, so they may end up losing another close one in Madison.