Set Your Tivo: 01.28.10
Posted by THager on January 28th, 2010
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
#16 Wisconsin @ #12 Purdue – 7 pm on ESPN (****)
Not For the Faint of Heart Tonight
This game has huge conference and tournament seeding implications. This battle between the second and third best teams in the Big 10 could decide if these teams get a #3 or #4 seed in March Madness. Is Purdue actually back from that recent three-game losing streak? They’ve won their last two games against Illinois and Michigan, but did not excel in either game. Wisconsin has also been winning ugly lately, needing desperate runs in the closing minutes to beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State. When will their slow starts finally catch up with them? If Wisconsin keeps playing fundamentally sound, they can stay in any game no matter how poorly they shoot. The Badgers, who score only 68.7 points per game, commit the least turnovers of anybody in the country right now, and will likely shatter their school record for fewest turnovers in a season. Largely due to the fact they don’t give up fast break points, opponents score only 57 points per game, something Robbie Hummel and the Boilermakers would like to change. They only scored 66 points against Wisconsin when they lost their first game of the season. Jon Leuer’s injury has been a big blow to the Badgers, but he injured his wrist just minutes into the Purdue game and the Badgers found a way to win. Purdue, despite their high ranking, does not rank in the top fifty in either points per game or points given up per game, so look for UW’s stingy defense to once again shut down the Boilermakers.
Wake Forest @ #22 Georgia Tech 7 pm on FSN (****)
Georgia Tech is a ranked team, but they are in danger of playing themselves out of a solid seed for the NCAA Tournament. If they lose tonight, they will be .500 in January, a trend they will need to stop before they find themselves on the bubble come Selection Sunday. With their poor offense (they rank #65 in offensive efficiency) they can cannot continue to turn the ball over 16.2 times per game. Wake Forest, on the other hand, is getting better every day. They have now beaten the top two teams in the conference standings in Maryland and Virginia, and Al-Farouq Aminu continues to be a beast this year at over 11 boards per game. Their defense is solid as well, coming at #13 in Pomeroy’s rankings, and held Virginia to just 57 points in their last game. The major concern for The Demon Deacons is their recent road performances, which include a 20-point loss to Duke and a loss to Miami who has yet to win another ACC game. The Yellow Jackets have two forwards to contain Aminu, but Gani Lawal shot just 1-5 from the floor and 3-8 from the line in their loss to Florida State. Expect WFU to limit Lawal’s total again, and for the Demon Deacons to finally crack the Top 25.
California @ Arizona State – 8:30 pm on FSN (***)
This game could decide who will win the Pac-10 this season. Sadly, probably only one of these two will be dancing in March this year. The Bears are the only two-loss team in conference play right now at 5-2, while the Sun Devils are tied with an half of the Pac-10 at 4-3. That spells a lot of competition, but the conference reeks of mediocrity. Although the Sun Devils have a better overall record at 14-6, their RPI is at #82 right now, and they are fresh off a loss to Arizona. These two teams play a different style, as Cal averages 79 points per game but the Sun Devils only give up 56 points per contest. Despite giving up 69 points per game, the Bears have played well as of late, holding Oregon and Oregon State to 57 and 61 points in their last two contests. Jerome Randle will look to lead the Bears in this road contest, and thus far he has delivered in several big games. He had 25 points against Syracuse, 26 points against Ohio State, and 20 points against New Mexico. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, don’t have a go-to scorer, as no player on their teams averages above 13 points per game. Besides playing at home, where they are 11-2, the main advantage ASU has is their three-point shooting, at 37.6 percent. If they have any chance to beat Cal, they probably have to shoot lights out against one of the toughest teams they have played yet.
#8 Gonzaga @ Santa Clara – 11 pm on ESPN2 (**)
If anybody has any doubts about whether humans are better college basketball analysts than polls, look no further than Gonzaga. Although you would be hard pressed to find one team anxious to play the Zags right now, they are ranked #45 according to Pomeroy behind USC and a St. Mary’s team they beat in Moraga. At #23 in the RPI, there is a possibility Gonzaga will receive a seed that does not reflect their #8 ranking in the human polls. The Bulldogs will likely win their ninth game in a row, but it may not do them much good as Santa Clara is 9-13. Their offense, which has the ability to score from anywhere at any time, will have to put up some big numbers tonight if they want to impress voters. They have scored 80 or more points ten times this year, so the possibility of a 100-point effort is a possibility. In a similar road game against San Diego recently, the Toreros only lost by 18, so the Broncos have a chance to keep this game from becoming a blowout. Still, I don’t like Santa Clara’s chances of making a game out of their 257th ranked offense and 229th ranked defense. Mark Few’s club will likely score around 90 points in their sixth WCC win this year.
“Although you would be hard pressed to find one team anxious to play the Zags right now,”
I know of at least 5 or 6. Gonzaga is overrated…they are not a title contender this year, which is what their rank currently suggests.