Big Ten M5: 01.11.16 Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on January 11th, 2016

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  1. Purdue dropped to 14-3 (2-2) on the year after losing to Illinois, 84-70, on Sunday night, and a familiar formula has emerged in each its three losses this season. Turnovers and shoddy offensive play have doomed this team, as AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas combined for only 16 points on 6-of-13 shooting. The defense that has been a constant positive all season failed miserably, as Illinois became the first team to shoot over 50 percent from the field against the Boilermakers in 37 games. Is there trouble in West Lafayette?
  2. The return of Michigan State‘s Denzel Valentine from a four-game injury hiatus did not bring a triple-double or a spectacular stat line. Rather, the senior looked a bit rusty early before scoring 10 second-half points as the Spartans blasted Penn State, 92-65, Sunday afternoon. One key takeaway from this game was that Tom Izzo’s squad might have become even better in its All-American’s absence. Eron Harris and Bryn Forbes have emerged as serious offensive threats, while post play has also improved significantly. If Valentine gets back to the productivity he displayed in the first 12 games of the season, Sparty is definitely on the short list of national championship contenders.
  3. If Indiana didn’t completely offset the stench of its early season play in the Hoosiers’ blowout win over Ohio State on Sunday afternoon, they have certainly come close. Tom Crean’s squad stayed undefeated in league play behind big efforts from big men Thomas Bryant and Troy Williams. Williams was especially productive in scoring a team-high 23 points, but what was more important was that he didn’t commit any momentum-killing turnovers. Indiana held the Buckeyes to a paltry 0.86 points per possession, and if the Hoosiers’ defense continues to improve, Indiana will be a dangerous team going forward.
  4. Crean also added a fourth commitment to his 2016 class on Saturday when Devonte Green pledged to his program. The younger brother of former North Carolina standout Danny Green, the Long Island native is a 6’3″ combo guard whom 247sports rates as the sixth best player from New York. Green is the third guard slated to join the Hoosiers next season, joining other commitments Curtis Jones and Grant Gelon in the backcourt.
  5. Nebraska rolled to its biggest road win in 96 years on Saturday, beating Rutgers by 34 points while shooting 56.9 percent from the floor and logging 52 points in the paint. Rutgers is missing some key interior pieces, of course, but the Cornhuskers played arguably one of their best games of the season in getting contributions from everyone. Andrew White III continues to prove that he is one of the best and most efficient scorers in the league, scoring over 20 points (28) for the fifth time this season.
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ACC M5: 01.11.16 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on January 11th, 2016

morning5_ACC

  1. Charlotte Observer: Andrew Carter takes a deeper look at how this season’s unbalanced schedule will affect the presumed ACC contenders (where’s Clemson?!). First, compliments to the author for including “halcyon” in the lede; second, Virginia‘s hole may look deeper than it is. On the other side of things, Duke‘s shiny record may be more a reflection of an easy start than a strengthened Blue Devils team.
  2. Winston Salem Journal: Want to know a team whose hole is exactly as deep as it looks? Say hello to NC State! After a loss at Wake Forest last night, head coach Mark Gottfried said, “I’ve seen bad teams before. We’re not a bad team.” Unfortunately, his team’s problem is that it can’t shoot. Its defense is typical of a Gottfried-coached team and Cat Barber is a must-watch player, but his roster has way too many offensive holes.
  3. Louisville Courier-Journal: The only disappointing things about Clemson‘s ACC season so far are: 1) the Tigers weren’t able to end their lifetime streak of futility in Chapel Hill; and, 2) Littlejohn Coliseum is being renovated so all their home games are being played 30 miles down the road in Greenville. That second fact makes the Tigers’ win over Louisville even more impressive. Littlejohn often surprises visiting teams with its great atmosphere, but this games wasn’t on campus (not to mention that a certain football game tonight is dominating Clemson fans’ minds). For Louisville, though, this game emphasizes just how much we don’t know about the Cardinals.
  4. Fayetteville Observer: One thing was clear in watching Duke‘s game against Virginia Tech this weekend, which is that it’s not necessarily insane to think Marshall Plumlee is the Blue Devils’ most important player. Certainly, he’s not their best player — Brandon Ingram and Grayson Allen are much more important to the team from a production perspective. But Plumlee brings the fire. He throws himself around with reckless abandon and has gone 13-of-14 from the field in his last two games.
  5. Raleigh News & Observer: The ACC Tournament will never be the same, as the league has made the decision to sell beer and wine at the event beginning this season. That may not seem like a huge deal (and for many it won’t be), but a beer or three would go a long way, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. The best part of this move is that it brings beer and wine back to  the common people. For years it has been available in the luxury boxes and suites, out of reach of the average fan. No longer!
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Pac-12 Bracketology: Non-Conference Season

Posted by Mike Lemaire on January 9th, 2016

The heavy lifting for Pac-12 teams has just begun but the non-conference games each team is leaving behind won’t stay in the rear-view mirror very long. They make a dramatic reappearance in the next two months when some of those games played two and three months prior might be the difference between getting a coveted invitation to the Big Dance and being shut out. This means that the only consistent way to analyze how each team did in non-conference play is to evaluate each resume as if the teams were on the bubble. In general, Pac-12 teams did a lackluster job of scheduling legitimate competition (and beating it). Even with a seriously stretched definition of what counts as a “quality win,” it was still tough to get excited about the success of these teams. Let’s run through it.

Arizona – IN

Sean Miller's Team is Of Course Easily In, But How High? (USA Today Images)

Sean Miller’s Team is Of Course Easily In, But How High? (USA Today Images)

  • KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #292
  • Quality Wins: at Gonzaga, UNLV, Boise State (2x)
  • Bad Losses: None

The Wildcats look like the class of the Pac so the team’s at-large candidacy likely won’t matter much because they’re in regardless. They didn’t exactly challenge themselves in the first half of their schedule, playing  what amounts to the easiest non-conference slate in the conference. But Arizona also didn’t lose to anyone unexpected and beat a few decent teams too. It is possible that the win in Spokane against Gonzaga will be the only one to stand up as a true quality win, but for now, wins over Boise State (twice) and UNLV build a solid foundation for an at-large resume.

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What Lies Beneath: Isaiah Whitehead’s Passing Has Reinvigorated the Hall

Posted by Justin Kundrat on January 9th, 2016

Isaiah Whitehead has undergone a radical transformation over the last three weeks. The 6’4″ Brooklyn native arrived at Seton Hall as a shooting guard stuck in a point guard’s body, and it showed his freshman year. His talent was undeniable, but the fit felt unnatural alongside Sterling Gibbs and Jaren Sina, both of whom preferred to have the ball in their hands. As a result, last season’s guard-laden backcourt eventually collapsed amid locker room disputes and a struggle for roles. When all was said and done, Gibbs and Sina departed, leaving the team in the hands of the rising sophomore Whitehead.

The emergence of a special Isaiah Whitehead has Seton Hall right in the mix. ( Jim O'Connor/USA TODAY Sports)

The emergence of a special Isaiah Whitehead has Seton Hall right in the mix. (Jim O’Connor/USA TODAY Sports)

The start to the newly-minted Whitehead era was a rocky one, as an early loss to Long Beach State was sandwiched between narrow victories over Wagner and Bradley. Now, just weeks later, the team has collected wins over Georgia, Wichita State and Marquette. Don’t look now, but the Pirates appear to be playing their way into the NCAA tournament. The development of the team’s sophomores is a big reason for the improved outlook, but the biggest transformation of all belongs to Whitehead, who has found the right balance within the scorer/distributor framework of a point guard. “After Rutgers he started playing at a good level. He’s letting the game come to him, he’s getting good shots. He knows when to be aggressive and when to pass the ball more now,” coach Kevin Willard said following his team’s win over DePaul. Make no mistake, too: This shift has not been gradual. It has been sudden and dramatic. Whitehead’s assist figures have exploded, and so too has the effectiveness of the team’s offense. Read the rest of this entry »

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Seven Sweet Scoops: Ball Brothers Shine, Marvin Bagley Finds a Home

Posted by Sean Moran on January 9th, 2016

7sweetscoops

Seven Sweet Scoops is a weekly column by Sean Moran, the RTC recruiting guru. Once a week throughout the season he will bring you seven notes from the high-stakes world of college basketball recruiting. We also encourage you to check out his contributions at The Intentional Fouldedicated to recruiting coverage and analysis. You can also follow Sean at his Twitter account @Seanmohoops for up-to-date news from the high school and college hoops scene. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Note: Scout.com used for all player rankings.

1. The Ball Brothers Go National

Watching Chino Hills play basketball is similar to what you would see playing a video game. Full court passes, threes splashing in from all areas of the court, pressing, trapping, and an insane amount of highlights. Led by the Ball brothers, Chino Hills is the No. 1 team in the country after winning both the City of Palms tournament in Florida and the MaxPreps Holiday Classic in California. They narrowly defeated Thomas Jefferson (NY) 91-90 before handing Montverde their first loss of the season at the City of Palms, and then went out and beat The Patrick School, coached by former Rutgers coach Mike Rice, in overtime in the championship. The team is led by five-star senior point guard Lonzo Ball who may well be the best passer in high school basketball. His younger brothers LiAngelo and LaMelo also play key roles. LiAngelo in particular impressed over the holidays in using his football physique to punish smaller defenders in the post. All three brothers have committed to play for UCLA. After dismantling teams from across the country, the Ball brothers and Chino Hills will try to run and gun their way to a California state title.

2. Name To Remember: RJ Barrett

Candian Andrew Wiggins was the top player in a loaded 2013 high school class. Now, it appears that R.J. Barrett, a 6’6” freshman wing, might be the next Canadian to top the recruiting ranking charts. The Barrett buzz began early in the Canadian circles, as his father is a former pro player and Canadian national team member. It picked up that much more when Barrett scored 13 points in the U16 FIBA America’s gold medal game against the top USA players in the 2017 and 2018 classes. Now, Barrett is at the famed Montverde Academy in Florida playing for head coach Kevin Boyle. Before Christmas rolled around, Barrett was named to the all-tournament team at the City of Palms Classic. In one of the top tournaments in the country, Barrett averaged 19.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4 assists. He also exploded for 31 points against Chino Hills, the top team in the country. Only 15, Barrett already displays a wide array of abilities. He makes three pointers as easily as he can finish with an athletic dunk, equally capable of punishing teams on attacks of the rim as he is from the perimeter. It’s very early in the young Canadian’s career, but Barrett currently sits at the top of the 2019 high school class. Read the rest of this entry »

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UCLA: Predictably Unpredictable?

Posted by Andrew Murawa on January 8th, 2016

Conventional wisdom on UCLA, after taking down KenPom #16 Arizona on Thursday night to pair with earlier wins over then-#2 Kentucky and then-#19 Gonzaga, is that the Bruins are inconsistent and unpredictable. And conventional wisdom, as is often the case, may only be partially right. The more complete argument may be that the Bruins are consistent in their inconsistency and predictable in their unpredictability. This isn’t one of those riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma bits of nonsense. There’s a method to UCLA’s madness. Let’s dig in.

Just Another Predictable Night In Westwood (ESPN)

Just Another Predictable Night In Westwood (ESPN)

First, let’s take a look at the current landscape of college basketball. Again, using those KenPom rankings, Virginia is ranked sixth in the nation and has lost road games to George Washington (#72) and Virginia Tech (#119). Miami is ranked 10th and the Hurricanes took a home loss to Northeastern (#81). North Carolina was the AP preseason #1 team and currently ranks 11th in KenPom; the Tar Heels have suffered road losses to Northern Iowa and Texas. Dig a bit further down the rankings and there are many other examples of big-time teams losing to small-time teams. It’s been said that there aren’t any great teams this year, and that may well be true (although reserving that judgment until all of the classwork is in might be in order), but more to the point, there just may be less of a difference this season between the top team and the 50th-best team in the country than ever before. And perhaps more to the point, there is almost assuredly less difference between a team like the 10th-best team and the 90th-best team. In other words, big time teams are susceptible to taking losses against lesser ones, especially when they go on the road.

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Levy’s B1G Layup Line: Week 7

Posted by Adam Levy on January 8th, 2016

After a two week holiday hiatus, the Layup Line is back and better than ever. Conference play has finally begun, and the Big Ten is already off to an interesting start. Four teams are undefeated (Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State), and four are still winless (Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Rutgers). There has been lots of good, lots of bad and lots of ugly, so let’s dive right into the nitty gritty of the last two weeks.

REPORT CARD

A: Iowa Hawkeyes

Fran McCaffery's Team is Firing On All Cylinders (USA Today Images)

Fran McCaffery’s Team is Firing On All Cylinders (USA Today Images)

Sure, Indiana and Ohio State are also 3-0 in Big Ten play but neither has wins as impressive as that of Iowa. How the Hawkeyes scored 50 points in the second half against the best defensive team in the nation is beyond explanation, but it happened. And if we forget about Denzel Valentine, Buddy Hield and Ben Simmons for a moment, Jarrod Uthoff has been the best player in the country. If March Madness started tomorrow, Uthoff would likely be a First Team All-American. Offensively, the Hawkeyes currently rank 11th in efficiency, eighth in turnover percentage, 39th in effective field goal percentage and 21st in three-point percentage. Defensively, they rank 36th in efficiency, 10th in opponents’ free throw rate, 32nd in opponents’ three-point percentage and fifth in block percentage. No disrespect to Mike Gesell and Peter Jok and their to-this-point stellar seasons, but this team would not be nearly as effective without Uthoff. It most certainly could not have beaten Purdue in the fashion it did without his 25-point, four-block effort.

Oh, and Iowa also beat Michigan State and Nebraska handily. It’s high time to buy stock in the most underrated team in the country.

B: Diamond Stone

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If there is such a thing as freshman jitters, Diamond Stone had ‘em. The Maryland center is now a completely different player than the one we witnessed in the first month of the season — a huge development for a team with serious Final Four aspirations. As of last week, Maryland is one of six major conference teams scoring more than a point per possession on post-ups (1.02 PPP); last season it managed just 0.75 PPP in those situations. Mark Turgeron can thank Stone for that, a player who is coming off a sweep of the Big Ten’s weekly awards (Player and Freshman of the Week) and an epic 39-point, 12-rebound performance in a comeback win against Penn State. It’s Diamond’s world right now.

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ACC Stock Watch: Conference Play Week 1 Edition

Posted by Matt Auerbach on January 8th, 2016

With the first full week of conference play now in the books, results have mostly held to form thus far (Virginia falling in Blacksburg notwithstanding). The presumptive favorites appear to be as good as advertised, and perhaps even a little better in some cases (see: Brice Johnson’s 39-point, 23-rebound exercise in absurdity in Tallahassee). In fact, Johnson doesn’t even make this week’s Stock Watch because that kind of performance can’t be defined by any sort of trajectory — it’s off the graph entirely.

Trending Up

Buzz Williams continues to clean house as he turns around Virginia Tech's basketball program. (Michael Shrayer - USA TODAY Sports)

In just his second year, Williams has Hokies’ fans buzzing earlier than expected in Blacksburg. (Michael Shrayer/USA TODAY Sports)

Virginia Tech: Even after an 11-22 campaign a season ago, few seemed to doubt that Buzz Williams would eventually build Virginia Tech into a competitive ACC program. After an inauspicious start in this year’s non-conference season (nobody forgets that opening night loss to Alabama State), the Hokies probably shocked even themselves with their opening week of ACC play. An overtime win over struggling NC State is one thing, but following that up with a win over intrastate bully and two-time defending league champion Virginia is quite another. The victory put a halt to the Hokies’ seven-game losing streak to the Cavs and shows that Williams might actually be ahead of schedule in generating some excitement in Blacksburg. With his trademark passion and intensity, it is only a matter of time before Virginia Tech becomes a consistent winner.

Jordan Roper: The senior guard from Clemson proved there is more than one way to skin a cat in leading his team to a pair of impressive victories last week. On Saturday, Roper connected on a career-best seven three-pointers en route to a team-high 23 points, boosting the Tigers to a nine-point win over Florida State. His shots weren’t falling on Wednesday — Roper was unable to manage a single made field goal — but he set a career-high of 10 assists in an impressive overtime victory at Syracuse. Roper is averaging career-bests in points, rebounds and assists for the 2-1 Tigers, which next host Louisville in a game on Sunday where his steadiness will be critical.

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Cameron Ridley’s Injury May Keep Texas Out of the NCAA Tournament

Posted by Chris Stone on January 8th, 2016

On December 28, Texas’ season took a dramatic turn for the worse when it announced that center Cameron Ridley fractured his left foot during practice and would be out indefinitely. In the team’s first 11 games, Ridley had finally realized the potential that had made him a top-10 recruit in the 2012 recruiting class. The senior was putting together the best year of his career, averaging 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. What’s more, it seemed like the Longhorns were also turning a corner. After three early season losses, they had won six in a row that included an 84-82 thriller over North Carolina. In Shaka Smart’s first season, Texas appeared to be building a resume fit for an NCAA Tournament team. And then Ridley was injured.

Cameron Ridley was having a career season before breaking his foot. (Eric Gay/Associated Press)

Cameron Ridley was having a career season before breaking his foot. (Eric Gay/Associated Press)

One day after the announcement, UConn picked apart a Texas defense playing without its best shot-blocker (Ridley owned a 13.9 percent block rate, third-best nationally). The Huskies made 15 of their 22 shots at the rim en route to handing the Longhorns their first of two more defeats. Not having to deal with the big man’s 3.4 blocks per game clearly made a difference. With Ridley in the lineup, opponents shot just 40 percent inside the three-point arc. In the three games since, with Prince Ibeh playing in a starting role and no clear backup, Texas’ opponents are attempting 6.3 percent more field goals from two-point range, according to data compiled from sports-reference.com. They are also converting those attempts at a much higher rate, making 51.4 percent of those two-pointers. Without Ridley’s looming presence in the paint, opponents have been able to find and convert easy attempts against a Texas defense no longer able to field a semi-permanent rim protector. Read the rest of this entry »

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Examining Elite Eight Profiles: Who Looks Poised to Go Deep Into March?

Posted by Will Ezekowitz on January 8th, 2016

As conference play heats up, the identities of teams become increasingly apparent. As we invariably figure those teams out, we also start thinking about which teams are poised to make a run in March. To take a deeper view of postseason success, we looked at the KenPom statistical profile of five years of Elite Eight teams (perhaps a little arbitrary, but it’s hard to sneak into the national quarterfinals without being actually good) and compared it with this year’s teams that currently fit that profile. In the past five years, Elite Eight teams have ranked an average of 18th in offensive efficiency and 31st in defensive efficiency. Offense is clearly more important, as only two teams in the last three seasons have managed to crack the quarterfinals from outside of the offensive top 40 (both of which, coincidentally, were Louisville). The table belows shows the 10 teams this season that fit the Elite Eight profile as of January 8.

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If your favorite team is not on the above list, it appears that it still needs work. Let’s examine some of those missing teams, many of which are highly-ranked.

Teams that Must Improve Defensively

Purdue. The Boilermakers’ dream season has taken a couple of recent hits in losses to Butler and Iowa. What should worry Matt Painter, though, is that during the four-game stretch that included wins over Vanderbilt and Wisconsin in addition to those two losses, Purdue never posted an offensive efficiency that was above the Division I average. The team ranks first in defensive efficiency but is only 41st on the other end of the floor. Rick Pitino’s recent Louisville teams have shown that it is possible to advance in the NCAA Tournament on the strength of defense alone, but it’s generally easier to get there by finding greater balance with the offense.

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