Pac-12 Bracketology: Non-Conference Season
Posted by Mike Lemaire on January 9th, 2016The heavy lifting for Pac-12 teams has just begun but the non-conference games each team is leaving behind won’t stay in the rear-view mirror very long. They make a dramatic reappearance in the next two months when some of those games played two and three months prior might be the difference between getting a coveted invitation to the Big Dance and being shut out. This means that the only consistent way to analyze how each team did in non-conference play is to evaluate each resume as if the teams were on the bubble. In general, Pac-12 teams did a lackluster job of scheduling legitimate competition (and beating it). Even with a seriously stretched definition of what counts as a “quality win,” it was still tough to get excited about the success of these teams. Let’s run through it.
Arizona – IN
Sean Miller’s Team is Of Course Easily In, But How High? (USA Today Images)
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #292
- Quality Wins: at Gonzaga, UNLV, Boise State (2x)
- Bad Losses: None
The Wildcats look like the class of the Pac so the team’s at-large candidacy likely won’t matter much because they’re in regardless. They didn’t exactly challenge themselves in the first half of their schedule, playing what amounts to the easiest non-conference slate in the conference. But Arizona also didn’t lose to anyone unexpected and beat a few decent teams too. It is possible that the win in Spokane against Gonzaga will be the only one to stand up as a true quality win, but for now, wins over Boise State (twice) and UNLV build a solid foundation for an at-large resume.
Arizona State – IN
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #109
- Quality Wins: North Carolina State, at Creighton, Texas A&M, at UNLV
- Bad Losses: Sacramento State
Bobby Hurley’s Team Would Be In Based On Non-Conference Play Alone
The Sun Devils would probably beat Sacramento State by double figures if the two teams played today, but that loss is the only thing keeping Arizona State from being an at-large shoo-in. The team challenged itself in Bobby Hurley’s inaugural season and was rewarded with a quartet of excellent non-conference wins that will stand up against almost any other Pac-12 team. There is little shame in losing to Kentucky on the road or Marquette in overtime on a neutral court, but good grief, losing to a bad Hornets team in Tempe is going to be a tough stain to remove. That loss will appear on every graphic on every network breaking down the Sun Devils’ chances at getting in, but ultimately the team should be rewarded for its difficult schedule.
California – OUT
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #219
- Quality Wins: St. Mary’s
- Bad Losses: None
If the Sun Devils are sneaking into the party with the group in front of them, then the Golden Bears are the ones stuck at the front of the line looking at everyone inside. Cal is being punished for losing three of their four non-conference games that mattered, and they are lucky that St. Mary’s has been better than anyone expected. Losing to Virginia by one in overtime in Charlottesville almost feels like a point in Cal’s favor. But while neither Richmond nor San Diego State are bad losses, both are teams that Cuonzo Martin’s team would likely beat if they played today. Winning one of those games is likely the difference between getting in and the alternative. The good news is that it looks like this team will pick up enough conference wins to make this argument irrelevant.
Colorado – OUT
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #225
- Quality Wins: BYU
- Bad Losses: None
Colorado only lost twice in non-conference play and both losses were against top 20 opponents on neutral courts. But unfortunately for the Buffaloes, those neutral court games against Iowa State and SMU were the team’s only realistic chances to boost their credentials. Beating BYU at home and Auburn on the road are nice enough, but Colorado still lacks a marquee non-conference win and rarely left the state except to lose. Its resume is nearly identical to that of Cal except the Golden Bears have a better quality win. At this point both teams are just missing the cut.
Oregon – IN
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #153
- Quality Wins: Baylor, Valparaiso
- Bad Losses: None
The Ducks have one additional quality win than most of their conference counterparts and that is what pushes the Ducks into the at-large field. Their best wins came at home against very good Baylor and Valparaiso teams, but their losses to UNLV and Boise State are teetering on the brink of becoming bad losses. The fact that they were both true road games will mitigate some of the sting there. In reality, how the team plays going forward may determine how the committee views their non-conference performance. The Ducks were finally healthy — something they never were during the non-conference slate — before it was announced that Dylan Ennis would be out for the season with a foot injury. Even with his minimal production this season it is a big loss given what could have been expected of him.
Oregon State – IN
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #141
- Quality Wins: Tulsa
- Bad Losses: None
The Strength of Its Schedule Helps the Beavers Get Over The Hump (USA Today)
The Beavers would love another crack at Valparaiso in their building now that they are humming offensively, but Oregon State is a particularly interesting case even without that win. Both Cal and Colorado have better non-conference wins than the Beavers, but Oregon State played a much tougher schedule. It would be going a little too far to say the Beavers played a murderer’s row, but their overall body of work looks solid and many teams would love to be able to say, “we played Kansas tough for the first 30 minutes.”
UCLA – IN
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #69
- Quality Wins: Kentucky, at Gonzaga, UNLV
- Bad Losses: None
The ironic part about only looking at non-conference schedules is that UCLA’s worst two losses of the season came against Washington and Washington State last weekend. But those games don’t count in this analysis, and as long as Monmouth holds up its end of the bargain, the Bruins own arguably the conference’s best non-conference win (Kentucky) and don’t have any bad losses. Gonzaga isn’t the same team as it was, but winning in Spokane will always be considered a quality win. Steve Alford would probably like to switch that Wake Forest loss to the win column, but the Demon Deacons are a solid team and it won’t hurt this team’s chances.
USC – IN
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #213
- Quality Wins: Wichita State, Monmouth, Yale
- Bad Losses: None
Monmouth beat four Power 5 teams from three conferences in the first month of the season, so you better believe that it counts as a quality win. As for Yale? KenPom likes the Bulldogs (#73) more than teams like UNLV and Boise State so the Trojans will take the extra bump. The Trojans didn’t exactly play a competitive non-conference schedule and they got somewhat lucky that Monmouth and Yale are as good as they are. Put simply, the Trojans played better opponents than some of their conference counterparts, and as a result, racked up an extra quality win or two that pushes them into the field.
Utah – IN
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #207
- Quality Wins: Duke, San Diego State, Texas Tech, BYU
- Bad Losses: None
Jakob Poeltl and Utah Were Rewarded For Playing Worthwhile Opponents (AP)
Behold the best non-conference resume in the Pac-12! The Utes’ overall strength of schedule is definitely uninspiring, but they played a lot of big-name opponents and won everything they needed. The team boasts what most would say is the conference’s best non-conference win over Duke on a neutral floor as well as a win over Texas Tech in Puerto Rico. Utah even deserves credit for agreeing to play Wichita State in Kansas, a trip most Power 5 teams would never even entertain. It would have been nice if Utah hadn’t spoiled all that good will by going out and losing its first two conference games.
Stanford – OUT
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #66
- Quality Wins: Arkansas
- Bad Losses: None
The Cardinal have the simplest case of any team in the conference. They have one sketchy quality win against Arkansas and four mostly understandable losses to SMU, St. Mary’s, Villanova and Texas. It seems a bit unfair that a team racked with injuries has had to play such a grueling non-conference schedule, but the Cardinal made their own bed and now have to lie in it. The final calculation is that Arkansas is not very good and points for brave scheduling cannot make up the difference.
Washington – OUT
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #272
- Quality Wins: Texas
- Bad Losses: UC Santa Barbara
The Huskies have played a mostly terrible non-conference schedule and beating Texas in China to open the season cannot mask that fact. Losing to the Gauchos at home is not a good look either, and the loss to Oakland could start to look worse if the Grizzlies don’t run away with the Horizon League. Huskies’ fans should take heart, however, as their team wasn’t even supposed to win that many non-conference games and have won their first two conference games since. Things are looking up in Seattle.
Washington State – OUT
- KenPom Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: #277
- Quality Wins: None
- Bad Losses: at Idaho
You reap what you sow and this is what happens when the Cougars schedule the 277th-best (worst?) non-conference schedule in the country. To their credit, the Cougars didn’t do anything unexpected with it. They lost all three games that someone might remember in February and beat up on teams that committee members probably don’t know exist. Except they lost to Idaho by four points on the road and that wasn’t in the game plan. Now instead of a clean resume, Washington State has an ugly one.
